Guest Post by Scott Adams
It’s hard to count people who are intentionally hiding. But just for fun, let’s see if we can deduce how many so-called Shy Trump Supporters are out there.
For starters, we can say with certainty that they exist. I have a better ear for that than most of you because of my Trump blogging and my public endorsement of Clinton for my personal safety. People feel comfortable telling me privately, and also anonymously online, that they hide their Trump support from their spouse and coworkers. So we know they exist. We just don’t know how many.
We know that sometimes robocall surveys and online surveys show more Trump support than human-to-human polling. So that might be an indicator, but we don’t know what other variables are in play.
In a recent Reuters poll, 7% of respondents “refused” to vote for either Trump or Clinton. I’m guessing some Shy Trump Supporters “park” their votes with Gary Johnson (polling at 9.3%) or Jill Stein (polling at 3.3%).
But I wonder if the Shy Trump supporters are mostly parked with Johnson because of gender (consciously or unconsciously), whereas Stein is more of a real protest vote against Clinton. Anecdotally, Shy Trump Supporters tell me they do park their pre-vote preferences with Johnson. So far, none have told me they are parking their vote with Stein. (This is anecdotal, and a small sample of perhaps a dozen.)
Then you also have the question of turnout. Trump is clearly generating the most enthusiasm in public appearances. I would think that translates into more new voters.
Most of my predictions so far this election cycle have been based on what I call the Master Persuader Hypothesis. I’ll depart from that model for this prediction because this one is based on a gut feel – which I understand in my rational mind to feel identical to confirmation bias. Therefore, you should place zero confidence in my prediction.
I predict that 3% of voters are Shy Trump Supporters. As polls continue to tighten, especially in battleground states, that will be enough for an electoral landslide for Trump.
Just for fun, ask ten of your closest friends – the ones who you can trust to tell you their secrets – if any are Shy Trump Supporters. I’ll bet you find one in that group. And that would extrapolate to three-times more hidden support than Trump needs for a landslide.
Anything can change between now and election day. If one of the candidates does something awesome or terrible, all bets are off. But the way the zeitgeist feels to me, the ending of this movie has already been written.
Again, I urge you to put no credibility in this non-scientific blog post. I do this for entertainment.
But keep in mind that I got rich by consistently reading the zeitgeist right. That isn’t nothing.
#ZeitgeistIsUnderrated
What kind of a man would step into the privacy of the voting booth where he can vote for whomever he chooses and vote for Hillary Clinton?
This article was pointless, it is the equivalent of the scam on stock tips where is you guess right, you can convince readers of your mystical savvy. I don’t put two cents worth of trust on Scott Adams or Ben Garrison.
Here is a more convincing method of election forecasting they might do better with: put two bullets in the barrel chamber, one labeled C, one labeled T. Spin the cylinder and fire at your right temple. Repeat until you get a hot round in the brain.
Shit, even Paul the octopus bet his life for his gift of prophesy.
Here in NC, I’ve seen a few Bernie stickers but haven’t seen a Hillary sticker in the last 2 months. When Barky was running (more so in ’08) it was about 4:1 or 5:1 Obama stickers to McCain. Conservatives just aren’t as likely to wear their electorate choices on their sleeve. They say NC is a tight race, but it sure doesn’t look that way to me.
Funny point you make. I still see bernie yardsigns and bumper stickers all over the place. Occasionally I see a trump sign. But not a single hillary yardsign or sticker. Not one.
Last month, I drove to San Diego to visit a friend; four hour drive each way. Saw one Hillary sticker on a beat up Subaru, with the stereotypical cat lady driving. Usually in California, the libs are shoving it in your face, so this has been a nice change!
I would say the reason to be shy is the NSA that watch everything from cell phones to internet use to Facebook. If you are loud and say how much you love or hate whomever your name will go on a list. That list will be a future I just got Fucked list and you will enjoy having expressed your support with stuff happening that will be unbounded in grief. Mark my words. Big Brother or Sister is watching.
As soon as little sister Huma assumes the presidency by proxy, we can start worrying.
I had a Huma joke in mind when I woke up, it was Hillarious but I hadn’t had coffee to sober up yet.
Is it possible the NSA is watching the comments on this site? Does the bear shit in the woods?
Small dick wishing he was Big dick ,if what you say is true then you and I are already doomed.
BB, TBP contest: you post your shrimp against BD’s magilla gorilla dick and let the regulars judge the weiner.
Up my way it is a day to day battle if you are a Trump supporter. There have been news stories where homeowners have had to wire their Trump signs up with electrical fence material to keep people from taking down their front yard Trump signs. One guy, in an attempt to ID the perps, put up a game camera that would take videos of the people taking the signs, even with a sign next to his Trump signs telling the people they are on camera they continued. Now he says with the signs wired up he has a lot of funny videos of people getting the shit shocked out of them as they try to take the signs.
One family reported getting messages in their mail boxes from neighbors letting them know they had Trump signs in their yard, no shit, and other messages telling them how disappointed the neighbors were with them because they were supporting Trump, and other notes letting them know that they couldn’t be friends with them anymore. Pretty freaking sad. It speaks to the democratic adage that you can support and vote for whoever you want as long as it is who we want.
Try wearing a Trump t-shirt around town and people look at you like you were a leper and give you a wide berth. Pretty amazing really and somewhat hysterical.
It is feeling more and more every day that folks are having a harder and harder time making a case for Hillary and are starting to realize that voting for her in the long run is not the best choice. They might think Trump is a chucklehead but he is a far sight better than the real Hillary. Just using the office e-mail joke meme meter, six months ago it was 2 to 1 pro Hillary-Anti Trump. Today it is 3 to 1 Pro Trump-Anti Hillary. I don’t know if it is because there is just that much more Anti Hillary material or that the tide is turning. It is just interesting.
Unfortunately, I already said that I want the Federal Reserve to burn to the ground. So I am sure that I am already on that list.
As far as Hillary goes, she should be on trial for treason, not running for President.
I can see the headlines now: Confederate General deep in Hillary’s muff.
its not about hillary supporters at this point, it’s about anti-trump people (and i am using that term loosely).
this would have been a great election to implement my idea about each person has multiple choices on who and how to vote, vote in favor of a candidate and it’s worth +1, or vote against a candidate and its worth -2.
i’d love to see the “winning” speech from a politician who “won” when he/she recieved -1,980,165 to their opponents -2,010,985.
Plus we’d get to see maroons argue about who actually won because -2mil is “larger” than -1.9mil.
I still plan to vote giant meteor. Might have to write it in. Counting on giant meteor to stir shit up at the debates. I dont like stein or johnson either. So I have to vote my conscience. Giant meteor and total cleansing by fire is indeed the best alternative.
http://castle2016.com/home/ Check him out. Has zero chance, but might be a better choice.
Damn. I saw the “Castle 2016” and I thought it was going to be FRANK Castle, a/k/a The Punisher. That’s someone I could vote for.
Mr. Castle looks quite decent, but doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell.
Our choices look to be off-kilter narcissist vs. mentally ill, physically ill, pure evil Demon-spawn of Satan. I’ll take door #1.
But not just any meteor. SMOD is out there….
Campaign TV Spot:
Campaign Poster:
Campaign issue “Mexico”
The Daily Caller interview
http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/08/an-interview-with-the-sweet-meteor-of-death/
USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/07/01/poll-13-prefer-meteor-hitting-earth-trump-clinton-president/86604612/
I’m one of those ‘shy’ Trumpeteers. I’m so shy that I wore my ‘Hillary for Prison’ tee all afternoon yesterday, visiting multiple stores (groceries at Super Stop and Shop, W-Mart, a restaurant (the Rolling Tomato), and something else.
BTW Scott, I don’t need Hillary for my ‘safety’.
I’m planning to vote for Trump, reluctantly, but I don’t discuss this with very many people. I think some of my close friends are in the same position. I expect the “shy” Trump voters are at least as many as Adams suggests, and possibly much more.
Trump is iffy, but you would have be mentally ill to vote for Hillary.
It’s outrageous that the author of this bit of banality says he is voting for Clinton “for my personal safety”.
This may be the EXACT reason I would vote Trump if I felt motivated enough to take the time, in this liberal bastion of Maryland.
Hillary has already called for sending troops to Syria…has overthrown the Libyan government and left Al Quada in charge….has already called Nuclear powered Russian leader Putin “Hitler”….has the daughter of fundamentalist Islamists as her top aide……brokered the arms deals that currently allowed Saudi Arabia to continue with the slaughter of untold numbers of Yemenis….was Secretary of State when the US paid to overthrow the democratically elected President of Ukraine….
I could go on, but Hillary is the one most likely to start a nuclear conflagration–to continue the globalists efforts at destroying the last sovereign nations who won’t get on board the NWO bandwagon.
If she is elected, the final decade or so of this Fourth Turning will most likely lead to the loss of over a billion humans–mark my word on this………..
Scott Adams is NOT voting for Hillary. C’mon. It’s just a sarcastic comment about the violence of Hillary supporters. Read his first essay on this point and the sarcasm is just dripping.
thanks..not aware of who he is or his history so took his words as honest beliefs.
If we really needed a reality TV star as president, couldn’t we elect Gordon Ramsay?
I am a shy one. I carry. Don’t want to go to jail for any amount of time because of stupid people.
Persnick,
He said public endorsement not voting for. You get the prize.
I saw a yard sign for Hillary and when I looked closer it said, “Hillary for Prison”. No joke.
In SE Michigan lately, “Hillary for Prison” signs are more common than pro-Hillary signs.
Now in the bumper-sticker wars, “H” stickers are not common but are seen a bit, and Trump stickers are almost nonexistent. Probably because of the violence regularly directed at Trump supporters by the thug / FSA class who doesn’t get prosecuted for anything unless it’s a 10 year felony.
I have a feeling that after election day, regardless of who “wins” or is declared (falsely or otherwise) as winner, having an “H” sticker on your car will be dumber than driving a Honda onto a UAW parking lot in 1978.
A Trump bumper sticker can get your car vandalized.
Maybe even get you attacked in a parking lot.
It’s how the left operates.
And why we need Trump to win.
I saw a yard sign for Trump and while I was looking closer, the Jehovah’s Witnesses refused to stop. No joke.
Ok, nobody but Stuck will get my joke. It means even those guys considered the residents as hopeless and beyond redemption.
One Hitlery sign in my neighborhood and it’s a small one posted in a window.
I think the author has a good point.
With the MSM stirring the plotline of violence against Trump supporters, is it any wonder those same supporters are “shy”?
The MSM prods the attack dogs and then smugly admires their results.
People around here are not that shy. Here in rural flyover land, people display Trump signs but they do not like to cover their NRA stickers on their pickup trucks.