Like many Americans, I was out all day on Sunday watching football. Slowly but surely, I started getting lots of emails about Hillary’s health. Figuring something was up, I finished watching the first set of games, and then went home and checked out what happened. Once I read the news and found out what occurred, like those who had contacted me, I wondered what the effect the presidential election would be.
So where did I look? If you’ve read my previous content on where to find the real odds, you already know: I went straight to Betfair, and checked out the US election odds. As the news got digested by the oddsmakers, and real money was moved around and the odds repriced, the odds for Sanders, Biden, and Kaine began increasing. The odds for Trump moved up just a touch, but not nearly as much as many who contacted me thought they would.
As of 9/12/2016 at 11:20AM EST, the odds were as seen below:
I’ll put the numbers in percentage terms of chance to win the election, to simplify. All percentages are approximates:
- Hillary Clinton: 61% (prior: 68%)
- Donald Trump: 30.5% (prior: 28%)
- Joe Biden: 3.7%
- Bernie Sanders: 3.1%
- Tim Kaine: 1.1%
- Gary Johnson: 0.25%
After looking at the new odds, I asked myself the question again: does Hillary’s health matter? Below are my observations:
Of all the possible candidates to potentially replace Hillary, Biden and Sanders are in a virtual tie, with a slight edge going to Biden. While Tim Kaine could replace Hillary, he would likely remain as the VP on a new ticket. The DNC has no official procedure to replace a nominated candidate who drops out, so no one really has a clue what would happen if Hillary left the race. The presumption is that the DNC would think Biden is a stronger replacement than Sanders, who was not liked by the DNC during the nomination process. Sanders of course would have a lot of existing support of many who voted for him in the primary, just not the backing of the DNC. Biden, who was likely already kicking himself for not running, has to really be regretting that decision now… unless he somehow bucks the odds and ends up replacing Hillary. If Biden does replace her, he would get all the benefits of being the candidate, without having any of the drawbacks of having ample time to attack his platform leading into the election, leaving him far better off than if he ran from the beginning.
Only a small amount of the “benefits” of Hillary’s health episode have accrued to Trump… so far. His odds for victory have only increased ~2% from a prior 28% this past week. I think this is because any of the proposed replacements are far stronger candidates than Hillary is. Hillary is easily the weakest, most flawed, and easily exposed presidential candidate the party has put forward in the last 7-8 election cycles, if not more. She lost to Obama in 2008, and while Obama is an excellent speaker and campaigner, he was Illinois’ junior senator at the time who hadn’t even finished serving his first term. Obama and Sanders both should have been patsy opponents for her, and she still lost to Obama and had to have heavy DNC support to defeat Sanders, who has plenty of his own weaknesses, including his own age and mental health.
If Hillary isn’t replaced, I think only some of the benefits of her health episode will accrue to Trump. The “Never Trump” crowd will still come out for her, but will obviously be less likely to show up and vote for someone they think may not be healthy enough to hold office, not including all her other misgivings.
If Hillary is replaced, I would expect Trump’s odds to get way worse. I think if Biden/Sanders/Kaine replaced Hillary, people would flock to the new candidate. Trump is hated by people from both parties, notably the elites/establishment, constantly puts his foot in his mouth, and I believe it would be easy to garner support for whoever should have been running against him instead of Hillary. And as I stated above, all of the potential replacements are far stronger candidates than Hillary.
Gary Johnson is still not a factor. Unfortunately, the Libertarian candidate hasn’t seen any benefit at all from this.
So, while Hillary’s health COULD be a factor, right now, it is more than likely not a big enough issue to get her replaced. The market is pricing the likelihood of Hillary replacements at a total of ~8% chance of winning it all. As a percentage of Hillary’s odds to win, that puts her odds of being replaced at ~13%. Her health is most likely either A) not an issue, or B) is an issue, and the DNC/Mainstream Media will prop her up Weekend at Bernie’s style. No matter what the pundits are saying to get their name in the news, with an 87% chance that she stays in the race, odds are very strong that Hillary’s presidential race isn’t ending until after the election is over.
Unfortunately I think this is right. Twenty second Xmas is over.
couple of incorrect points in here…
1. Hillary didn’t lose to Obama. She had the dirt on him, but instead brokered a deal to get Secy of State in exchange for her support. In return, Obama would support her in 2016. She made $millions if not $billions more with this approach. She didn’t factor in her failing health, which was the major mistake of her plan.
2. Biden would have loved to run, but see #1.
Said it before and will say it again. Once it is painfully clear that Hillary can’t beat Trump, even with all the election fraud, search engine bias, media bias, etc, they will replace her with Biden at the last minute. No way will they put up Sanders.
The oddsmakers have the bitch at 61% and Trump at 30.5%? You gotta be kidding me. You mean to say that hitlery is ahead of Trump by that margin?
I find that hard to believe, but what makes me more than a little nervous is that those guys figuring the line on games are usually pretty right on.
TC said: “they will replace her with Biden”.
Good God Almighty….What a thought, but I guess you are right.
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Oh, for Christ’s sake…I should’ve looked at the Betfair site before panicking. What a relief……….nevermind.
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Oddsmakers are very, very rarely wrong.
The odds do not reflect their personal beliefs, nor are they wild guesses.
The odds reflect actual money being bet, by many people.
It is a real time survey, and it is based on people using their own money.
Hence, bookies almost always get these things right.
I might not be able to hold my nose and vote for Trump, but maybe I will place a bet on him winning.
So………what are the odds that Hilary has The AIDS? —- think about it, Bill goes around bangin’ everything in sight, one night in the 80’s he comes home drunk to pop her in the butt……….incubation and the best Aids Drugs Money Can Buy (ask Magic) 30 years later it finally catches up to her………start looking for dark splotches on her skin
Let the wild hypotheses begin!
Odds or ‘lines’ are set only to draw equal betting money to both sides. It has nothing to do with who they think will win. When equal money is bet on both sides, then the casino/betting parlor only can make money. If too much money is bet one way then the odds or line is moved however much is necessary to equal the betting to guarantee the casino can only make money. No upset, however long the odds, will ever adversely effect a sports book. It amazes me how few people understand this.
I don’t understand the particulars pertaining to book makers but I don’t really need to as I’m not a gambler unless I’m betting on a sure thing which is damned rare!
The sure thing is to bet on the harpy.
Betfair exchange participants bet against each other, not the book. The exchange takes fees per transaction. It works like a poker rake.
The sportsbooks actually have much wider spreads than the Betfair exchange. Its reasonable to assume that some sportsbooks lay off risk on the exchange if they can’t find enough participants on the other side.
Outcomes converge around the odds. Its easy to pick one or two where the spread was off, but if you think the money is a poor indicator, you should be a pro gambler.
Enhanced audio from the Klinton collapse on Sunday:
C’mon Assange. We need to capitalize on the momentum.
If you recall, the odds for the Brexit referendum favored the Remain-side by 3 to 1 margin. Polls, however, had the race neck and neck. What surfaced was that the betting odds were rigged. The actual number of bets paced favored Brexit by 2 to 1, but the average size of each bet for Remain, were 6 times as large. The result was the odds were skewed to 3 to 1 for remaining in the EU.
Da Boyz, understanding that the bookies work on total dollars, and not numbers of bets, were gaming the system to favor Remain. They perform a similar racket everyday on the markets to sucker us into thinking that the value, or level, of the indices are indicative of a healthy and prosperous economy.
Pay attention to the men behind the curtains and don’t trust anything they say or do.
Watched football(NFL) all day? I stopped reading at that point.
At this point, what difference does it make?