Fear Porn: The 4th Turning
Lots of wild cards in the doom talk about the inevitable “4th Turning” that’s been discussed here.
While fantastic writers (and researchers) like Jim have put forth extremely compelling cases that the 4th Turning is GUARANTEED – Can you really “bank on it?” (like that phrase has lost it’s meaning since banks are now as fragile as a porcelain egg).
Even reliable and experienced folks like Hardscrabble Farmer seem to indicate that we’re all in for a rough time ahead. Honestly, that makes me uneasy as well – because I trust the words of such well-rounded individuals.
But the eternal optimist in me sees a ray of light somewhere in the distance… I do.
Previous 4th Turnings did not have NEARLY the technology OR awareness that today’s society has.
How do you think those “new ingredients” play into the old model of 4th Turnings?
It’s all in the cards. Or what you think are the cards…
The government (and big business) do hold good cards, such as:
- the power grid
- the communication networks
Assuming “TPTB” probably has a (fully functional) secondary network OUTSIDE of the reach of the “lemmings” in the rest of society – they hold a distinct advantage.
Where they DO NOT hold an advantage is in the power of NUMBERS.
“WE” outnumber “THEM” at least 1000 to 1. In physical bodies, at least.
They do have the advantage again when it comes to WEAPONRY. And I’m sure you know what that means. Remote drones, satellite shit, who the fuck knows. However, that all depends on the willingness of ordinary humans (albeit heavily indoctrinated) in the military.
Sure, we take more losses – but have a nearly unlimited base compared to them.
It should be noted that they’ve been purposely dumbing-down the “populous” over the past few generations (hello lazy millennials) – and despite the “freedom fighters” that are said to exist out there – it’s certainly a dwindling number. Most likely less than half. More realistically less than 10%. Still at least 25 million people willing to fight.
How organized and efficient is an entirely different story. Especially without technology or power.
However, just like in Vietnam – technology and power do not always have an advantage against those truly willing to fight for their lives. Survival is a BEAST compared to just “winning” for whatever reason some douchebag above you tells you so. The heart is where the fight lies.
History is one thing. But unwritten history is another.
Many of you have been quoting historical evidence. Much of it is compelling and scary. Maybe you ought to scale it back a bit and calm the fuck down. People like Stucky think “it will pass, no big deal.”
He might be onto something.
The modern times here have empowered LARGE numbers of people. Not enough to be comfortable in my opinion, but a sufficient amount to change the playing field to a significant degree.
It would take a large bunch of indoctrinated psychopaths to destroy the world we live in today. An insane number of them, in my opinion.
Yes – “TPTB” are running scared. Cashing out in many instances. But people are greedy. Over-anxious in some circumstances.
But how “well oiled” is the “machine” that runs this world, really?
Maybe they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing either. Not every step is so well planned out. Just ask Hillary Clinton and the MSM how that turned out. It’s clear they aren’t that competent either (to botch what they clearly thought was a “sure thing…”)
However, it’s true that the fabric that holds (this) society together (the fiat money system) DOES have an endpoint – aren’t we already seeing emerging alternatives (i.e., BitCoin) get attention BEFORE the big, bad, 4th Turning? Doesn’t that give you some hope? See James Corbett’s post about the revolution that is happening right beneath your noses.
Perhaps society – in conjunction with our super-fast-moving technology – has finally figured out we can TRUMP the next “4th Turning” before it has a chance to succumb us all?
Don’t you see the difference between today – and all the other 4th Turnings? Will our (mostly detrimental)(slave-inducing) technology prove to be a savior? Or is that wishful thinking?
Perhaps the future is not as depressing as people are being led to believe. Yeah, every society has hiccups. Maybe we can just “burp” this one out and forge ahead.
Thanks for listening. Just my viewpoint of the world.
..And pigs might fly. Here’s a tune for you, Hobo.
“Sheep”
Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away
Only dimly aware of a certain unease in the air
You better watch out
There may be dogs about
I’ve looked over Jordan and I have seen
Things are not what they seem.
What do you get for pretending the danger’s not real
Meek and obedient you follow the leader
Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel
What a surprise!
A look of terminal shock in your eyes
Now things are really what they seem
No, this is no bad dream.
The Lord is my shepherd, I shall not want
He makes me down to lie
Through pastures green he leadeth me the silent waters by
With bright knives he releaseth my soul
He maketh me to hang on hooks in high places
He converteth me to lamb cutlets
For lo,m he hath great power and great hunger
When cometh the day we lowly ones
Through quiet reflection and great dedication
Master the art of karate
Lo, we shall rise up
And then we’ll make the bugger’s eyes water.
Bleating and babbling we fell on his neck with a scream
Wave upon wave of demented avengers
March cheerfully out of obscurity into the dream.
Have you heard the news?
The dogs are dead!
You better stay home
And do as you’re told
Get out of the road if you want to grow old.
Fourth turnings had widely disparate effects on individuals. 75% had jobs during the depression and they did well. Not everyone went to war. During the civil war, unless you were unlucky enough to be poor and young in the south, you may not have experienced any adversity. Rip Van Winkle slept through the entire revolution. etc.
Doom porn has its place. It is about awareness and preparedness. No matter what it will take a generation (20 years) of tough hard work to get out of the hole we are in. Can it be accomplished without bloodshed? I don’t know.
The reality is this the WHOLE WORLD is in debt up to its eyeballs. Is there one country that is not in debt to the banksters? How many years of consumption have been brought forward? Maybe some maff genius out there can let us know. That is how many years the WORLD will need to tighten its belts for. That means a huge debt deflation; default and negative GDP.
The problem is someone somewhere will not be willing to tighten their belt and will fire the first shot. Once that first shot is fired there is no turning back. IF we don’t destroy ourselves there will be an opportunity for a reset.
The other thing I know is that until I can’t do it any longer whether by force or because it’s time to retire I am going to continue to get up every day and go to work. As long as someone wants a building built I will be there to build it.
So yes, be aware, be cautious, but get up and go to work today and take care of your family.
One of my take aways from the book, is that Fourth Turnings by their nature are not easily predicted before they occur, but after they take place it is possible to retroactively see them coming. Based on that idea and how history has played out in previous cycles, I’m guessing that the crisis event this time around may not have anything to do with the collapse of the debt-based monetary system, race relations, or any of the other prime suspects. I’m guessing that it will be something that comes from out of proverbial left field.
The problem is that it seems to be human nature -wired in human nature- that people only become aware of change after it has occurred and each progressive change has to be larger than the last one was before it is noticed.
We habituate to seeing the world as its past and only become aware of its present once it has progressively changed enough to shock us without realizing we have already moved on from there and what we are seeing is already the past.
Sort of like driving a car using only the rear view mirror that only lets you see where you’ve been and then guessing where you are going from that.
The debt-based currency system is UNSUSTAINABLE – it will eventually collapse. Maff is hard, but reality is harder, and less flexible (2+2 = 4, unless you use vector math, and then 2+2 = anywhere between 0 and 4, depending on the angle between the vectors).
But I think you are correct – it need not collapse from the debts FIRST. If nothing else intervenes (WWIII, EMP from solar flare, Fukushima radiation collapsing the Pacific food chain, whatever) it will eventually fall apart from debt.
But there are plenty of Black Swans flying that must eventually land.
When I read about predictions based on recent history, such as where will silver go, I lose interest in the premise, as the way markets are reported have completely changed; therefore history has little relevance concerning economic predictions. Same goes for political predictions, Trump has started a whole new rulebook and we are living in unpredictable times. Social unrest is a little more clear, the powers that be know they can start a fire, but they are waiting for the kindling to get it started and so far, their martyr has not arrived on the scene. When considering the future from a fourth turning standpoint, a big change is coming, but there are too many variables to predict anything. I know personally I went through a “burnout” maybe 6 months ago, waiting for the next shoe to drop, but it seems I’m still waiting. A big help to me is following the articles and posts here at TBP to keep my focus on the current situation with a balance so as not to fall into chasing after the imagined doom so many others are writing about.
Great posting! Thanks!
Is there any reason for optimism? Absolutely! Is there any reason for fear? Well, yeah… that too — but the fear and the optimism are working on two different scales. The fear is more for what will happen short term (maybe the next decade or two) and small scale (for the USA on a regional or national level). The optimism is for longer term (more than fifty years) and large scale (globally or maybe even out into space).
Why the optimism? Primarily because of the growth of digital information technology. We are experiencing what I refer to as “Gutenberg V2.0”. Not only can average people now afford to buy a printed book (as in Gutenberg’s V1.0), but now, information is so cheap that almost anyone can get more data, more ideas, more facts, more speculation, more books, than the Library of Congress and practically free. The last time this sort of shift happened, kings fell to be replaced by representative governments, religious priesthoods with their monopoly on interpretation of doctrine were kicked out, financial systems were overthrown, the scientific revolution was started, and (my personal favorite) the doctrine of natural rights was created. The US Revolution would never have happened without Gutenberg 300 years before. Thomas Paine would have been an unknown idiot struck down by the King and Church as soon as he opened his mouth. Well, today, almost any child anywhere in the world can read Tom Paine, Thomas Jefferson, or Ben Franklin. Ditto, Karl Marx, Robert Heinlein, Mao Tse Tung and Frank Oz. Yes, the good and the bad are available to anyone — but don’t you have faith in the good ideas? I do. The best of Western civilization is good enough that in the long run people who are exposed to it will act in their own best interest and adopt it. Not everywhere, not all at once, not without struggle and bloodshed, but eventually. That is good news. No, that is REALLY good news!
What are the dangers? High on the list is our current financial scheme with its interlocking central banks, political power, corporate and military interests. But even that is under fire. As you mentioned, Bitcoin (or rather distributed ledger technology) is one example that may be one more nail in the fiat coffin. There are always demagogues, useful idiots and scoundrels. The US, (or perhaps the US-Great Britain axis,) being the center of present world power will have some very hard times as it has the farthest to fall before we can pick up the pieces. On the other hand it is very much possible to have a complete national reset without world war or even civil war. Look at the fall of the USSR as an example. Times will be rough — for a while. Still, the world has a lot of reason for optimism; longer term and with even just a small amount of luck. The problems we see today are painful — but they are birth pains, not heart attacks.
You knuckleheads are forgetting one or two things: God and to a lesser extent Satan .You don’t want to admit this physical world is controlled by the spiritual world.I have hope but not in some foolish nonsense like ” new technologies”All this technology will aid the satanically inspired people who wish to enslave us.Who will genocide us deployables of this world.Now enough of this magical, wishful thinking.You are going to die.Got that???
Yep. Truth is we’re all dying and in less than half a century most, if not all, reading this will be gone.
Time is a fire in which we all burn.
Carpe Diem, pass the popcorn and the ammo.
Oh yeah, I almost forgot: Have a great morning! ?
“Previous 4th Turnings did not have NEARLY the technology OR awareness that today’s society has.”
Stopped reading right there. More aware? MORE AWARE? Explain how that bitch got 50% of anything other than a shared cell.
MORE AWARE IN DEED…………..
For lack of a crystal ball it is difficult to know how things will shape up. Think about what the posts and discussions would be like around here and elsewhere if Hitlery had gotten elected.
The discussion about whether or not there will be a 4th turning is somewhat moot from my perspective as I believe we are already living through it. It’s the nature, outcome and duration of it that is unpredictable. We guess at it but each day brings a new twist or turn.
As to the intensity of it we aren’t out of the woods yet. Hopefully you are correct about the influence that communication and tech can have on this aspect of it. Living through a complete economic and social/political break down does not factor into my retirement plans. But like all things we will have to wait and see.
Hope for the best. Be prepared as best you can for the worst.
Fully loaded jets at altitude, out of fuel, have the glide path of a brick. How the fuck do you think it ends well for all? The consequences of not taking the repetitive cycles of history that are there – right there (!) for anyone who can read – especially if you have a family to care for, worry about, etc…..maybe your type should just go back to eating unicorn scat.
Hobo- If you are looking for awareness, you are in the wrong place.
I guess even the optimist should be prepared for whatever the future has in store. Dealing with the MSM morons and indoctrinated “yoots” is a certain headache.
So many pieces to the puzzle… but it’s comforting to know that there ARE people with their heads screwed on right and have common sense.
Hobo,
Well,…thank you for the optimistic description and predictions.
I can not agree with you.
“We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false.” William Casey, CIA Director, 1981-1987.
New Banking Rules Will Devastate Depositors As Your Money …
http://www.modernsurvivalblog.com/current-events-economics-p... Proxy Highlight
New banking rules will convert YOUR deposit money to THEIR money during a banking crisis which will … December 30, 2014, by Ken Jorgustin … During the recent G20 meeting (mid-November), the member nations decided that your bank
Some people are “waking up” to such statements and “convenient for bankers” LAWS
that allow banker fraud to translate into your loss. What kind of society allows that?
Answer: One that is ruthless, without conscience, and include careless murderers.
Information is coming out regarding levels of fraud, conspiracy, debauchery, and of a
world-wide criminal network, that are fantastical. But true.
The USA and “allies” have ruthlessly armed murderers, been the destroyers of smaller
nations, and thieves beyond imagination for a LONG time. Does anyone think that
pattern will change because some few are now aware of it? Some are aware of it, but
refuse to believe it. Believe it. Heroin is being dumped into our country because it
is a $ maker; never mind people are dying…young people mainly. Afghanistan, people.
No one dares believe in the international child trafficking because…? That can’t be true!
Now we are reading that DC is a hotbed of pedo-porno-satanic crap. That can’t be true!
Poison in our vaccinations, food, soil and water…and that being sprayed in our skies
6K ft. above us? Just tin-foil hat baloney, right? The death of money, the elimination
of cash (terrorism/ha ha ha)…that will be fun. Some basturds looted some folks.
Some basturds want to kill some folks. This fourth turning will be spectacular!
I personally think that technology and the accompanying complexity and vulnerability will make the situation worse not better.
Thanks for the words of optimism, in any event. Not saying I agree with you, but the thoughts are appreciated, and who knows?
In regards to”freedom fighters”disorganized/lack of some tech see that as a huge plus.First off,folks using what has used for 1000’s of years to achieve goals,depending on themselves and hard work,sure,use best tools available but when power saw does not work the hand saw still does.As for being disorganized,well,hard to penetrate/break up,lone people or small groups working towards goals a lot harder to keep track of/resist.
The real advantage is the “common people” have the numbers,when we refuse to work within matrix/go Galt what have you and engage locally we starve to a degree the powers that want to be and become more self sufficient,can only be a long term good way in my opinion.
@ Hoboken411 – you assume we will be fighting TPTB or its handmaiden the government. There are many other sources of conflict including ourselves. I’ve been watching Presidential elections since 1972 and I have never seen extreme partisanship as I have nowadays.
In fact, ‘partisanship’ is too weak a word to cover the extreme hatred that’s I’ve seen grow between various factions such as left vs right or black vs white or citiots vs fly-overs, etc. Once the spark is lit, there’s no telling what TPTB will do … they may even do nothing and let us tear ourselves apart so they can buy the pieces at pennies on the dollar or send in the troops and fill the FEMA camps.
That’s the trouble with Fourth Turnings; they’re unpredictable. All we know for sure is that it will hit the fan, but where and when and who is anyone’s guess.
Technology is what will separate this Fourth Turning from all others prior.
My fear is that it will reveal itself to be a wicked Hat Trick (i.e. – three goals scored by one player in a game): In other words, technology has the potential to serve as handcuffs, the prison walls and as executioner.
Judge and jury could be a camera, a credit card reader or a drone; with the modern technocrats serving as the prison wardens, the guards and the electric chair.
Hell, it’s already here.
Ironic how such wicked trinities could realistically play such roles in a Fourth Turning.
Maybe an EMP blast wouldn’t be so bad after all. I dunno.
http://www.clickclickclick.click
BTW – As a side addendum here, I saw the above yesterday posted on one of the blogs and checked it out. It is a harmless website that judges you based upon your visit. You click the green button with your speakers on and it will talk to you. It told me my system was extremely fast and that I appeared to be a mystery. It said: “Hmmmn…. you seem special…. you seem….. intelligent and alternative.”
No shit.
So I tried it using a different browser and it said I was “old fashioned” but with an extremely fast cursor speed, much more than average. It told me how many websites I visited since the browser had been opened last. Bizarre.
Always know the Watchers are watching.
Previous precedent established that the reason that banks owned your deposits was that they needed that ownership to INVEST them; that in order to lend Tevye the Tailor money to buy a new sewing machine (make him a loan), the bank had to have ownership of the deposits used to make that loan. Likewise, if you deposited money in the bank you had to trust the bankers to be honest AND honorable: they wouldn’t lend Tevye the money unless he was good for it (no “loans” designed for default, Tevye runs off with the cash less the “fees” the bank charged for lending it to him) and Tevye would make the payments on his loan, so that the bank AND YOU got your money back.
Nowadays, no one really knows their banker; unless it’s a credit union for a local group, the HQ is in NYC, LA, SF, Chicago or somewhere far from where you live. You can’t drop in and ask to see their books anymore. You can’t ask to see how much cash is in the vault. You can’t get any real information out of them at all, in many cases.
So why is this “bail-in” legislation wrong? Because there is no ACCOUNTABILITY built in: you can’t HANG anyone who loses all their money, steals YOUR deposits and then makes MORE bad bets to lose it all again. If the bank had ONE branch in YOUR town in total, then the banker probably lived nearby and you could drop in for a “discussion” if it went under losing your money. Nor are bankers (board of directors) legally liable for insolvency (made to cover the bank’s bad bets if it went broke).
Glass-Steagall was there for a REASON before Bill Clinton repealed it. Now it’s anything goes, on YOUR money!
I don’t quite get the post…you talk about how the current 4th Turning may just pass without incident…then you describe armed conflict between the people and the government…Jeebus that would be among the worst case scenarios of this 4T.
Secondly, the idea that technology will get us out of it is quite absurd. Technology is a double-edged sword of course–there are wonderful things that are accomplished by tech–BUT for the most part technology is the CAUSE of our problems today. Technology has allowed the exponential growth of the population over the last 150 years..technology has allowed the rapid stripping of natural resources and the poisoning of many environments around the globe. The idea that more technology will overcome all the issues brought upon us by more technology sounds a lot like the Central Banks idea of solving the problem of too much debt with MORE DEBT.
Some of ya’ll just need to chill the fuck out.
90% or greater of everything you’ve ever worried about never came to pass. Stop and reflect, and you’ll see how true that is.
Everything will be fine.
Book it.
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What could be worse than fighting on foreign soil for corporate interests ? Fighting liberals at the behest of the banking systems who benefit at growing richer by dividing the country and sitting back and reaping their I’ll gotten gains as the country destroys itself.
Nope, we’re fucked.
Hobo,
please forgive me for my rude responses and one-up-manship
attitude. I saw those thick heavy trails being spread, and I lost it.
Your essay is very nice and reassuring also. Thank you.