Musktopia Here We Come!

Guest Post by Jim Kunstler

It ought to be sign of just how delusional the nation is these days that Elon Musk of Tesla and Space X is taken seriously. Musk continues to dangle his fantasy of travel to Mars before a country that can barely get its shit together on Planet Earth, and the Tesla car represents one of the main reasons for it — namely, that we’ll do anything to preserve, maintain, and defend our addiction to incessant and pointless motoring (and nothing to devise a saner living arrangement).

Even people with Ivy League educations believe that the electric car is a “solution” to our basic economic quandary, which is to keep all the accessories and furnishings of suburbia running at all costs in the face of problems with fossil fuels, especially climate change. First, understand how the Tesla car and electric motoring are bound up in our culture of virtue signaling, the main motivational feature of political correctness. Virtue signaling is a status acquisition racket. In this case, you get social brownie points for indicating that you’re on-board with “clean energy,” you’re “green,” “an environmentalist,” “Earth –friendly.” Ordinary schmoes can drive a Prius for their brownie points. But the Tesla driver gets all that and much more: the envy of the Prius drivers!

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This is all horse shit, of course, because there’s nothing green or Earth-friendly about Tesla cars, or electric cars in general. Evidently, many Americans think these cars run on batteries. No they don’t. Not really. The battery is just a storage unit for electricity that comes from power plants that burn something, or from hydroelectric installations like Hoover Dam, with its problems of declining reservoir levels and aging re-bar concrete construction. A lot of what gets burned for electric power is coal. Connect the dots. Also consider the embedded energy that it takes to just manufacture the cars. That had to come from somewhere, too.

The Silicon Valley executive who drives a Tesla gets to feel good about him/her/zheself without doing anything to change him/her/zhe’s way of life. All it requires is the $101,500 entry price for the cheapest model. For many Silicon Valley execs, this might be walking-around money. For the masses of Flyover Deplorables that’s just another impossible dream in a growing list of dissolving comforts and conveniences.

In fact, the mass motoring paradigm in the USA is already failing not on the basis of what kind of fuel the car runs on but on the financing end. Americans are used to buying cars on installment loans and, as the middle class implosion continues, there are fewer and fewer Americans who qualify to borrow. The regular car industry (gasoline branch) has been trying to work around this reality for years by enabling sketchier loans for ever-sketchier customers — like, seven years for a used car. The borrower in such a deal is sure to be “underwater” with collateral (the car) that is close to worthless well before the loan can be extinguished. We’re beginning to see the fruits of this racket just now, as these longer-termed loans start to age out. On top of that, a lot of these janky loans were bundled into tradable securities just like the janky mortgage loans that set off the banking fiasco of 2008. Wait for that to blow.

What much of America refuses to consider in the face of all this is that there’s another way to inhabit the landscape: walkable neighborhoods, towns, and cities with some kind of public transit. Some Millennials gravitate to places designed along these lines because they grew up in the ‘burbs and they know full well the social nullity induced there. But the rest of America is still committed to the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world: suburban living. And tragically, of course, we’re kind of stuck with all that “infrastructure” for daily life. It’s already built out! Part of Donald Trump’s appeal was his promise to keep its furnishings in working order.

All of this remains to be sorted out. The political disorder currently roiling America is there because the contradictions in our national life have become so starkly obvious, and the first thing to crack is the political consensus that allows business-as-usual to keep chugging along. The political turmoil will only accelerate the accompanying economic turmoil that drives it in a self-reinforcing feedback loop. That dynamic has a long way to go before any of these issues resolved satisfactorily.

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hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
April 3, 2017 9:16 am

I heard this on the news this morning-

Tesla delivers a record number of vehicles during the first quarter 2017: ~25,000

25,000 cars doesn’t seem like a whole lot to me. How is a guy going to fund a Mars expedition on those kinds of sales?

starfcker
starfcker
  hardscrabble farmer
April 3, 2017 9:33 am

HSF, read the comments on that article. Tesla is about to become a big bad bear with the model 3. Tesla hating is very common on this forum, good way to find a crow on your plate. The model S is already the best selling luxury sedan in the world. Hugely profitable per vehicle, their numbers are skewed right now by the capex for the battery and model 3 factories. Never bet against people who are way way smarter than we are (Musk)

starfcker
starfcker
  Administrator
April 3, 2017 10:26 am

I don’t make a lot of predictions, but usually they’re pretty good. I’ve got a few popular ones here, let’s see who ends up right. Tesla, fracking, etc. Data tells you the story of what happened, not what’s going to happen. Key difference.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 10:06 am

Well, he’s certainly smarter that we are in the sense that he has figured out how to get the taxpayers to finance his projects and make him rich and we haven’t.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
  Anonymous
April 3, 2017 10:29 am

I think the word you were looking for is “craftier”. It is one thing to get the public to fund things that benefit them as a whole (and a 100K car or a 1 million dollar tourist ride into space don’t even remotely qualify) but when the person running the thing also becomes wealthy off of said taxpayer dollars, then it’s merely a grift.

There are plenty of smart people, far moreso than Mr. Musk, who do not think that eating at the public trough is the same thing as raising your own sustenance. I personally consider anyone who relies on public funding at any level to be a form of parasite unless their disability completely disqualifies them for any type of productive effort.

starfcker
starfcker
  hardscrabble farmer
April 3, 2017 11:00 am

What public funding are you refering too? Tesla buyers get the same tax credit if they buy a chevy or a nissan. The model 3 is being sold without any tax credits at all. Carbon credits are a california thing, that’s california’s business, doesn’t cost me or you a dime. Musk got rich off Paypal, his stock in Tesla certainly made him a boatload of money, hardly makes him a parasite.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 11:09 am
starfcker
starfcker
  hardscrabble farmer
April 3, 2017 11:47 am

The guy who wrote that is dumb as a rock. So now contracting services for pay is grifting? I’d say the grifters are the affirmative action rocket scientists at NASA who fail at what should be their core competency, launching a rocket.

starfcker
starfcker
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 1:06 pm

Ha ha ha ha ha. How timely. Shorts are getting killed today. Tweets by Elon Musk (@elonmusk) – Twitter
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/848935705057280001

anon
anon
  starfcker
April 4, 2017 12:41 pm

Starfcker should change his name to stupidmfer. Never bet against people smarter than you? Seriously?

Tesla is the ENRON of the auto manufacturers.

If I recall, ENRON’s executive team all had PHDs/MBA/etc from the Ivy league schools.. another one for you is Long Term Capital.. same thing both scams. Oh don’t forget Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos… She had a “smart” team too.

The only difference is the great Musk is keeping his scam going by government subsidies. Admin just dropped a F bomb on you. Fact Bomb. If you are dumb, you should get it. If you are “smart”, believe “Musk”.. the essence of government welfare.

Ed
Ed
  hardscrabble farmer
April 3, 2017 5:35 pm

Well, this is refreshing. Kuntsler has rooted up an acorn of solid thought. That’s a rarity, but this article is actually a good read. Glad I didn’t just skip over it as I’ve been doing with his stuff lately.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
April 3, 2017 9:17 am

“The Silicon Valley executive who drives a Tesla gets to feel good about him/her/zheself without doing anything to change him/her/zhe’s way of life.”

JHK is stealing my lines.

Meme thief.

Wild Bob
Wild Bob
April 3, 2017 9:24 am

After Kim Jong-Il sets off his EMP over America, we can use the Teslas for : Raised garden beds, hobo hotels, citadel walls, road barriers, barrier reefs, target practice, … … …

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Wild Bob
April 3, 2017 10:08 am

Along with every other car using electronic controls, or any technology higher than a horse and buggy, if what EMP alarmists say about EMP is true.

javelin
javelin
April 3, 2017 9:36 am

Not calling you a liberal Jim, but your idea of walkable neighborhoods and public transit is utopian at its core.
I won’t even get into the demographics of jobs and schools being stuck in the same neighborhoods as the homes- I’ll just mention the obvious. We have such areas like this, they are called cities.
Most industrial ( or post-industrial) American cities are rife with drugs, poverty, unemployment and crime. No way in hell I’m getting on a DC Metro bus or subway daily with a child. No way I want my wife or daughters walking down the streets of DC, being accosted verbally and possibly physically while they wait at bus stops. No way I sit entrapped in a subway car with groups of thugs hopping on board acting uncivil, blaring rap and trying to have a stare down contest when they are in groups of 4 or 5 of them.
Dream on–as long as there are urban thugs with pants-on-the-ground, hispanic males trying to cop a feel in a crowded bus or the next muzzi terror target on public transit, there will be a demand for the safety and convenience of autos.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
  javelin
April 3, 2017 10:09 am

Not to mention that if you have more than two bags of groceries or need to pick up some mulch…

Not Sure
Not Sure
  javelin
April 3, 2017 10:59 am

In the Twin Cities, there are a huge number of 5 to 20 story apartment complexes going up everywhere, with no end in sight. This is the practical way of carrying out the pedestrian way of life; by housing thousands in high rise apartment complexes. All well and good in a ever expanding economy, but in downturns or, dare I say SHTF scenarios, that would be the last place I would want I or my family to be.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Not Sure
April 3, 2017 12:01 pm

There have been studies with breeding rats cofined in limited spaces, all fed and watered and such so no competition for food and other essentials involved.

In each case, at a certain population density they begin fighting, killing, and even cannibalizing each other, no reason other than because they are too crowded.

Studies using rats are often used to hint at human behavior.

Dutchman
Dutchman
April 3, 2017 9:37 am

Yes, Musk is a fraud. His companies don’t make money – he gets grants from the Government, and sells carbon tax credits.

When you take into account the powerline transmission loss, battery charging not 100% efficient, the electric car uses electricity – even when idle – it has been found that a Tesla gets worse MPG than a BMS Series 5.

I used to work for NASA. I’d be glad to duct tape Musk to one of his Space-X boosters and send him to Mars.

Suzanna
Suzanna
  Dutchman
April 3, 2017 10:22 am

Go Dutch, yours is a fabulous response.
You too Javelin. I would gladly take a bus, eg,
but there are extreme risks. I know because I
used to take buses. In the city. Now, I burn gas to get
to town.
Furthermore, Musk has zero sex appeal, and he is a false
prophet, a thief actually, and he is certainly welcome to
rocket to Mars….the sooner the better.
Who wants a brand new car anyway? They are filled with
evil gadgets and cost thousands to “repair.”
JHK, I love your reference to “virtue signaling.”

starfcker
starfcker
  Suzanna
April 3, 2017 11:03 am

Musk has zero sex appeal? He’s got a pretty smoking girlfriend. Who wants a brand new car? New cars are pretty fucking nice, and cost nothing to repair thanks to warantees. Almost everyone covers drivetrain for 100,000 miles.

Miles Long
Miles Long
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 6:17 pm

Heh… & you think that warranty is free? Maybe you aren’t as smart as you think you are. SOMEBODY has to pay for the repairs. Usually warranty flat rate times are c.65% of customer pay flat rate times, so quite often the tech who fixes your car gets boned at the bottom of the totem pole. The car company is in business to make a PROFIT, not to provide you with free repairs. It’s all a marketing scam. You pay up front with the estimated probable repair costs included in your purchase price. The car company will always err on their side.

starfcker
starfcker
  Miles Long
April 3, 2017 7:16 pm

Hey bonehead. I haven’t bought a used car since the 80’s. Guess what. New cars don’t break. That said, I don’t plan on buying anything new for a while. There are just too many perfect cars coming off lease with super low miles that have already depreciated 60%.

Miles Long
Miles Long
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 7:38 pm

Hey dumfuk, I worked at new car stores for way too many years & have all the certificates, papers, & scars to prove it. New cars absolutely do break, sometimes colossally, so you’re just showing the depth of your ignorance.

Oh… & do you really believe that Musk’s smokin’ girlfriend is there just because he’s a great guy? She’ll follow the $$ if & when it disappears.

starfcker
starfcker
  Miles Long
April 3, 2017 7:54 pm

What do you work for Fiat?

Miles Long
Miles Long
  Miles Long
April 3, 2017 8:45 pm

You’re so wrong that you dont really deserve a reply but over the years VW, BMW, Mercedes, Honda, & Acura have paid me fairly well to fix their new cars that break. Now stop being precocious & get me a glass of water, with lemon, & a clean fork, will ya?

Robert (QSLV)
Robert (QSLV)
  Miles Long
April 4, 2017 1:30 pm

Amen, Miles. I was the leak and squeak man at a Chevy Dealer when I was a kid. Learned about the bones.

Robert (QSLV)

Dm
Dm
  Dutchman
April 3, 2017 11:42 am

What a clueless reply by a so-called NASA engineer. Electric Vehicles don’t idle. The grid is getting cleaner every day and many use solar to charge their cars.

Dutchman
Dutchman
  Dm
April 3, 2017 2:23 pm

@Dm: I’ll explain about Electric Vehicles and idling.

The engineer who did the study compared the energy used by a BMW Series 5, and a Tesla, and he found the BMW used slightly less energy per mile than the Tesla.

I can’t recall the exact specifics, but he considered many aspects: The power to charge the batteries – he computed the power lost from the transmission station. More power is consumed in charging the batteries, than the rating of the batteries. Also heat / A/C / other options consume power. He said when the car is idle, the ‘power management systems’ use power. When taking all this into account, the Tesla uses more energy per mile than a BMW 5.

Ed
Ed
  Dm
April 3, 2017 5:42 pm

“many use solar to charge their cars.”

Many? How many? Let me guess: three? That might be about right. Home solar systems may be able to handle the 10 hour trickle charge, but I don’t know how well they’d do on a four hour fast charge, do you?

starfcker
starfcker
  Ed
April 3, 2017 7:12 pm

Ok, Ed. You stepped in it here. Let’s say an electric car company that was way ahead of the pack read your comment. They might say to themselves, he’s right. That technology and capacity doesn’t exist. What might they do? They might start a company to develop EXACTLY that. Should Tesla do that? Oh wait, they already did. Solar City. Musk is miles ahead of the competition.

kokoda - the most deplorable
kokoda - the most deplorable
April 3, 2017 9:51 am

Jim K….this is not the first time you bashed suburbia. Tell you what, when you move in to the Detroit Model Cities Project, then I will consider your rants.

I don’t know how you live, but if it is a Gated Community, then the word hypocrite comes to mind.

Dutchman
Dutchman
  Administrator
April 3, 2017 10:23 am

When you look into the backgrounds of pundits like JK – you see they basically don’t have a pot to piss in, live in some podunk town, in a run down house.

starfcker
starfcker
  Administrator
April 3, 2017 10:32 am

Yeah, but I saw him interviewed somewhere the other day, he looks like he gets outside about as often as john mccain or Boo Radley. Hey Kunstler, a little suburban fresh air and sunshine might do the body and spirit good. Fire up the barby, lounge around the pool, it ain’t so bad.

Bill D
Bill D
April 3, 2017 10:08 am

Whatever you think about Tesla, SpaceX is revolutionary. Regarding gov’t grants -how do you not look upon Lockheed Martin and Boeing and the like the same way? Their bread and butter are government contracts and their payout has been orders of magnitude bigger. Not to be taken seriously? SpaceX has provided a competitive commercial, many times not for the US Gov’t, satellite launch service whose price is being driven downward: Musk has ushered in the era of reusable rockets. This over time (decades to centuries) will have an impact probably bigger than that of reusable airplanes, though the latter were never seen as disposable at least in nominal operations other than war.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
  Bill D
April 3, 2017 11:11 am

Now if only they could be used to escape through the firmament…

mark branham
mark branham
April 3, 2017 12:12 pm

All new technologies have growing pains. Electric cars will be the standard when batteries are an efficient way to store power and solar tech becomes cheaper than any other source of electricity. To get to that end, there have to be people with enough scratch to pay $100,000 plus for current tech… and someone has to get the ball rolling. Musk gets all the attention but who wants to bet that dozens if not hundreds are spending their working lives trying to get to both.

Miles Long
Miles Long
  mark branham
April 3, 2017 6:25 pm

Whatever happened to great inventors using their own damned $$ to develop their product if they’re the ones who will be profiting? Same with Boeing & Lockheed. Who thinks the F-35 would be such a clusterfuck if it was being privately funded? We’re from the gub’mint & we’re here to help. Hahahahahahaha

Dutchman
Dutchman
  Administrator
April 3, 2017 3:02 pm

Tesla has a negative P/E !!!! That’s because the company never has had any earnings. It’s all speculation. The guy burns through cash.

Ford’s P/E is almost 7. That is a real great buy.

starfcker
starfcker
  Administrator
April 3, 2017 3:37 pm

No Jim, that’s a sign that they have deposits on 16 billion dollars worth of model 3’s, and intend to start delivering them in the fall. What kind of CEO tweets about his stock price? A crafty one, I guess

starfcker
starfcker
  Administrator
April 3, 2017 4:16 pm

Ok, it could say that. Funny

Da Perfessor
Da Perfessor
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 3:58 pm

Well, their balance sheet shows they make more off “financing activities” than anything else, especially producing cars.

And they have deposits on $16 billion of sales, you say? That’s 160,000 units with deposits on them.

Just curious but does Tesla even have a beta out? And isn’t their current tooling capacity at around 25,000 units per year? Doesn’t that mean that customers are going to be waiting years into the future? And, do you really think they will?

Then there is the problem of tooling up to meet a limited market faster and running through the cash even faster.

Gosh, it just feels so warm and fuzzy…just like 1999.

Da P

starfcker
starfcker
  Da Perfessor
April 3, 2017 4:24 pm

Da P, let me answer you. They have deposits on something like 420,000 units. The best selling sport sedan, the BMW 325, just cracked 300,000 units per year. Not the $100,000 model S, the $40,000 model 3. Yes, they already have betas out, and plan to deliver the first cars to their employees as a massive road test. As far as tooling up, again, you’re confusing model S and model X production numbers with an entirely new factory built to pump out model 3’s.

Da Perfessor
Da Perfessor
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 4:50 pm

Thanks, star, appreciate the factual correction.

Still not sure how they sell at a loss and make it up on volume though.

Not snark, but I’m just not getting the business model in a free-competition environment…and also don’t enjoy having my tax dollars pay for someone else’s ride. No way this car would be useful in my meck of the woods.

Da P

starfcker
starfcker
  Da Perfessor
April 3, 2017 5:38 pm

They don’t sell anything at a loss. The profit on a model S is massive. Musk has been upfront since the begining. You will overpay for the Roadster/S/X to help finance the 3. Musk is thinking big. Not only is he making his own batteries, he plans on making everyone elses. Yes, if you take Tesla’s spending and divide it by units sold, it looks like they lose money on every car. That’s silly. Google the gigafactory in nevada, or the model 3 factory in Fresno, I think. That’s what they’re spending money on. Massive capacity to meet massive demand. Not useful? The P100d gets 310 miles on a charge. Imagine never getting gas again. Time, expense, exposure to street crime, poof. I see dozens of Tesla’s every day. They are about to kick the automotive world’s ass. Can you explain how you think your tax dollar is involved?

Da Perfessor
Da Perfessor
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 6:22 pm

“They don’t sell anything at a loss.”

Uh, how come they have been losing money every year according to the financials? Five years running, it’s making losses. No change in trend visible.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla/financials

“Can you explain how you think your tax dollar is involved?”

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hy-musk-subsidies-20150531-story.html

I think I have enough grasp of da maff to know that what the guv gives to Musk, they took from taxpayers first. That link is almost 2 years old. Pretty sure he’s up to $6.6 billion by now but don’t have the time to research that.

Just sayin’ that maybe you should dial back on the Kool-Aid if you have no ability to check between “story” and the numbers. That deficiency can be hazardous to your financial health.

Da P

starfcker
starfcker
  starfcker
April 3, 2017 7:50 pm

DaP, thought I explained. Let me try again. You’re sort of brainwashed by wall street. A real business doesn’t keep score by the quarter. Tesla never intended to be a boutique car maker. They set out to be a monster, from the begining. By focusing on high end, high margin products (roadster -model S- model X), and plowing the money back in, Musk put himself in the position he is in now. About to be a monster. Tesla was never going to be profitable until this stage. Read my post above, you must have glossed over a few things. Next, where do come up with the idea (like that little fruitcake from the LA times) that a tax break is a subsidy? Here is a quote from a much brighter woman in the article.

“That’s $5 million more than we have ever seen from that property,” said Dr. Lisa Garcia, superintendent of the Point Isabel Independent School District. “It is remote…. It is just sand dunes.” Think it through. Something big from nothing, is something big. Everybody benefits. The school board getting the five million, and the six thousand people who get nice jobs. And fruitcake thinks they gave away the store. Don’t be dense. That LA times worm will poison your mind. Do you think he’s bright enough to look at some sand dunes and say, “If you cut my tax rate, I can employ six thousand people in your county, and pump millions into your schools.” Of course not. He’s a simpleton.

kokoda - the most deplorable
kokoda - the most deplorable
April 3, 2017 2:22 pm

But Jim, Ford is the Old economy and Tesla is the New economy.
Someone (Paulson?) said debt doesn’t matter (look at me now).
So now it is Valuations don’t matter.

starfcker
starfcker
  kokoda - the most deplorable
April 3, 2017 3:34 pm

That’s a Cheney quote.

Fighting Dove
Fighting Dove
April 3, 2017 5:48 pm

Yes, Jim, you are right about the sham of “electric” cars and Musketeer virtue signaling and God bless you for saying it. Unfortunately, your alternative is equally delusionary. You fantasize about “walkable neighborhoods, towns, and cities with some kind of public transit.” That was what most of the country was like … in the early 19th century. It was possible because of a small population and low population density.

Faced with a country of 320 million people that is rapidly growing because of high-reproduction immigrant groups, your response is to pretend we can turn back the clock to the era of small towns on a human scale.

And we should be doing everything humanly possible to turn the clock back. We should stop immigration — not just illegal immigration, but immigration, period, except for an exceedingly small number of special cases. We should be encouraging smaller families, not urging whites to try to outbreed the wogs.

But in all the time I’ve been reading you, I don’t recall you ever saying word one about the virtues of smaller population. Your own form of virtue signaling is bumper-sticker thinking about “livable” spaces, which for you means high density. Instead of people spreading out in suburbs, stack ’em up in concentrated areas. Make everyplace New York City and make everyone get from place to place on subway trains.

Start talking about population reduction and strictly ending immigration and I’ll start taking you seriously about “the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world: suburban living.”

Miles Long
Miles Long
April 3, 2017 6:48 pm

Call me a cynic, but I must admit that when I saw the words “…problems with fossil fuels, especially climate change” & “virtue signalling” in consecutive sentences 2nd paragraph, too many rainbow colored flags popped up to take the rest of the article very seriously.

The author offers unicorn farts. I still read nothing but whinging & finger pointing with no viable solutions to real world problems offered.

David
David
April 3, 2017 6:48 pm

Go ahead and diss the Prius, driving an 11 year old model, still getting mid to high 40s mpg, drive 70-80 on the freeways, no need for anything faster in Westchester ny, no other energy input than the gas. Seems efficient to me. One admission, Have an AWD as backup as the traction control system on the Prius is so aggressive that you can’t just gun it and get up a steep icy hill like older cars.

Da Perfessor
Da Perfessor
April 3, 2017 8:35 pm

star –

This is out of sequence to the posts timeline because I could not reply to your reply, which is since those threads that get narrow in other fora are a pain to read.

1) “You’re sort of brainwashed by wall street. A real business doesn’t keep score by the quarter.”

Well I know, dude! Been working in the investment and management biz a long time, so no argument. But I am looking at 5 years of financials with trendless negative gross margin and the supposed core competency (car manufacture) earnings sincerely negative.

2) “Tesla was never going to be profitable until this stage. Read my post above, you must have glossed over a few things.”

Years ago very wise CEO told me in my younger years “You just did!” after I said “I’d bet my career on the success of this technical project.”

After the presentation, he pulled me aside and noted that the project looked pretty good but he’d had too much experience with leading edge technology. “The ‘leading edge’ often cuts you to pieces. I’m happy with ‘tried and true’ at the large scale.”

Anyway, I reckon I’ll go ahead and do some due diligence for a 2% position in the portfolio. Even so, I’m holding fire until the general market retreats because this is one of those stocks that general market movement can take down by more than the general market move.

Thanks for the discourse, appreciated the thoughts.

Da P

starfcker
starfcker
  Da Perfessor
April 3, 2017 8:46 pm

?

Da Perfessor
Da Perfessor
  starfcker
April 4, 2017 11:47 am

star –

Here’s the simple version: TSLA is way too rich for my blood even as a speculative play. Current price against 2020 projected earnings (future earnings are always optimistic) is still a P:E of 30. And a round lot (100 sh) costs too much in both hard cash and opportunity costs by crowding out better bargains that may come down the road.

Sure, there’s plenty more pricey of these “new economy” stocks out there so TSLA could run as well but I am looking for value. Don’t have the head (or time) for flipping hot potatoes. YMMV

Da P

BL
BL
April 3, 2017 8:46 pm

Have any of you read the article about Musk wanting to build massive amounts of deep underground tunnels?

Just incredible ignorance
Just incredible ignorance
April 3, 2017 11:45 pm

Star, I want some of what you are smoking. There are two things that make Tesla look like a viable company:
1. The Fed and free fiat.
2. Hype

Until Musk can find a way to create a Thorium Reactor in his vehicles, it is a pipe dream, at best. Period.
I am not going to go in to the details, as I don’t have the time to explain the principles involved, but I am sure the NASA fellow will no EXACTLY the limitations I am referring to. The laws of physics are non-negotiable and NOT suggestions. Musk WILL find that out.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
April 4, 2017 1:11 pm

Quick Tesla story.

A couple of years back I went back to my old hometown to visit family. While I was there I stopped in to see a guy who was doing the same kind of thing we are (albeit on a scale I could never achieve- he was a Deutsche Bank golden parachute Exec who got out with hundreds of millions in capital) He had opened a local market/high end restaurant/experimental farm and was really giving the farm to table buy local thing a big push. We had attended the same prep school so that got me in the door with some of my syrup and while I was talking with him he invited me to take a drive to one of his sites. We got into his Tesla and off we went.

No sound at all but our speaking voices and the wind going by. Unreal acceleration and a very comfortable passenger compartment. The cost- I looked it up later, I would never ask such a gauche question- was 100K at the time.

The battery cost was at that time roughly 81K and delivered $238/KwH

I’m sure they’ve improved a whole lot and the prices have dropped significantly, but that is not your average Joe kind of vehicle and the storage requirements for charging/temperature controls/etc add to that cost.

Just saying.

Visitor from Germany
Visitor from Germany
April 5, 2017 8:37 am

I do love “Adolf Hitler is short on Tesla” 🙂