Hurricane Florence is closing in on the Southeast as officials warned more than 1 million people in its projected path to leave now or face disaster. Florence is a category four hurricane with sustained winds of 130 mph, and computer models on Wednesday morning show it will make landfall around Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday as a major hurricane, said National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Florence is expected to be one of the strongest hurricanes on the eastern seaboard in decades and could unleash dangerous storm surges, flooding and hurricane-force winds in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.
According to reports, Florence’s track to the U.S. East Coast shifted slightly to the south overnight and the storm is now threatening to batter a wide swath of coastline as it makes landfall near Myrtle Beach.
“With the new track, you’re just exposing more shoreline to worse conditions,” said Evan Duffey, an AccuWeather meteorologist. “If Florence rides southward, as now forecast, it means its strongest side will rake the shore, threatening property from South Carolina to Virginia.”
While Florence which is still 530 miles (855 kilometers) away from the coast, is expected to lose wind speed the closer it gets to land, it remains a formidable threat to the coastline from Georgetown, South Carolina, to Wilmington, North Carolina as peak winds could be between 100 and 120 miles per hour. While the storm will likely weaken further in the coming hours – and history is full of storms that lost power before striking land and are still counted as among the most infamous, Katrina, Ike and Sandy are just three – Bloomberg notes that they all stand as proof that ranking on the Saffir-Simpson windscale alone isn’t a measure of power.
“People worry about the winds on the Simpson scale,’’ Myers said. “But wind is on average the third cause of damage from a hurricane. First is flooding from heavy rain, then damage along the coast from the sea. They are focused on the wrong thing.’’
Unlike Hurricane Hazel, which made landfall near the North Carolina-South Carolina border in 1954 and quickly moved through the region, Florence is coming straight on and will stick around for days, AccuWeather’s Myers said. He said the storm is bigger than average, and pegs the potential costs at $30 billion.
In preparation for Florence, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Acting Administrator Andrew Wheeler approved emergency fuel waiver requests on Tuesday as “extreme and unusual fuel supply circumstances exist in portions” of the Carolinas. The waiver will remain effective through Sept. 15 to help ensure a decent supply of gasoline.
According CBS, the coastal surge from Florence could leave the eastern tip of North Carolina under more than 9 feet of water in spots, projections showed.
As we reproted before, the Navy, Air Force and Army were moving ships and aircraft out of harm’s way. Thousands of Marines and their families evacuated from Camp Lejeune, leaving the rest to dig in ahead of what could be a direct hit.
“This one really scares me,” National Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham told CBS.
“This storm is going to knock out power days into weeks. It’s going to destroy infrastructure. It’s going to destroy homes,” said Jeff Byard, an official at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Federal officials begged residents to put together emergency kits and have a plan on where to go.
Forecasters said parts of North Carolina could get 20 inches of rain, if not more, with as much as 10 inches elsewhere in the state and in Virginia, parts of Maryland and Washington, D.C. One computer model, the European simulation, predicted more than 45 inches in parts of North Carolina.
A year ago, people would have laughed off such a forecast, but the European model was accurate in predicting 60 inches for Hurricane Harvey in the Houston area, so “you start to wonder what these models know that we don’t,” University of Miami hurricane expert Brian McNoldy said.
Rain measured in feet is “looking likely,” he said.
While more than 1 million are under mandatory evacuations in the Carolinas and Virginia, about 30 million across the Southeast will be affected if the forecast holds, CNN meteorologist Michael Guy said.
Latest developments
•The effects of the hurricane will be felt hundreds of miles away, including in Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia.
• By Wednesday morning, the storm was 575 miles southeast of Cape Fear, North Carolina. It had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph.
• The NHC issued a hurricane warning from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina.
• Florence’s weakening is expected Thursday, but it’s still forecast to be “an extremely dangerous major hurricane.”
• Life-threatening storm surges — up to 13 feet — are expected along the coasts. Up to 35 inches of rain could dump on the region through early next week over parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.
Florence’s projected path includes half a dozen nuclear power plants, pits holding coal-ash and other industrial waste, and numerous hog farms that store animal waste in huge lagoons. Duke Energy spokesman Ryan Mosier said operators would begin shutting down nuclear plants at least two hours before hurricane-force winds arrive.
“Florence will approach the Carolina coast Thursday night into Friday with winds in excess of 100mph along with flooding rains. This system will approach the Brunswick Nuclear Plant as well as the Duke-Sutton Steam Plant,” said Ed Vallee, a meteorologist at Vallee Wx Consulting.
“Dangerous wind gusts and flooding will be the largest threats to these operations with inland plants being susceptible to inland flooding,” said Vallee.
He tweeted several weather models Tuesday morning that forecasts rainfall amounts 15-40″ range in some regions along the coast.
One of those models is the ECMWF Total Precipitation, which shows the most torrential rain could be situated around the two nuclear power plants in Wilmington, North Carolina.
Bloomberg notes that Florence may cause upwards of $15 billion to $20 billion in covered losses from wind and coastal storm-surge, if the past is any guide, according to catastrophe modeler Risk Management Solutions (RMS).
Covered losses are based on benchmarking two similar hurricanes from decades past — Hazel in 1954 and Hugo in 1989, and convert their damage into present-day dollars, according to Tom Sabbatelli, an event response manager at RMS. However, the figures do not include the potential cost of inland flooding, which Vallee believes could be the real danger at play.
With Florence expected to hit the US East Coast by the end of the week, it is still difficult to predict the exact path and kind of damage the storm might cause.
“There can be the potential for significant uncertainty in a forecast track for a storm like Florence that is so far offshore,” Sabbatelli told Bloomberg. “Every event has its unique characteristics so we’re using that as a broad-brush first pass right now,” he said of the benchmarks.
NHC Director Ken Graham said that computer models showed Florence was forecast to stall over the Carolinas once it reaches shore.
“People living well inland should prepare to lose power and endure flooding and other hazards,” Graham warned.
Next 5-Days Rain Forecast:
What are meteorologists saying?
“Uncertainty. HurricaneFlorence is now forecast to slow down. That could bring prolonged winds and rain along the coast. Over a foot of storm surge and potentially 40 inches of rain depending on where the storm tracks. Details coming up,” tweeted Janice Dean, Senior Meteorologist at Fox News Channel.
Uncertainty. #HurricaneFlorence is now forecast to slow down. That could bring prolonged winds and rain along the coast. Over a foot of storm surge and potentially 40 inches of rain depending on where the storm tracks. Details coming up @foxandfriends pic.twitter.com/fXnJXmzrX9
— Janice Dean (@JaniceDean) September 12, 2018
European models are showing the hurricane could stall right off Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday as a major hurricane, said Ryan Maue, Meteorologist @weatherdotus.
If you stayed up for the Euro, then you’re seeing the same bad news about Hurricane #Florence track.
Stalls out right off Wilmington, North Carolina on Friday as a major hurricane. pic.twitter.com/757rk0PtIc
— Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (@RyanMaue) September 12, 2018
“LATEST track on Hurricane Florence has a decided shift south. Will stall is it approaches the NC coast Friday and then drift slowly into SC as it weakens,” said Cindy Fitzgibbon, Meteorologist at WCVB.
LATEST track on #HurricaneFlorence has a decided shift south. Will stall is it approaches the NC coast Friday and then drift slowly into SC as it weakens. #wcvb pic.twitter.com/PFTQw6BcbM
— Cindy Fitzgibbon (@Met_CindyFitz) September 12, 2018
Evacuation
North Carolina’s governor Roy Cooper issued what he called a first-of-its-kind mandatory evacuation order for all of North Carolina’s fragile barrier islands. Typically, local governments in the state make the call on evacuations.
“We’ve seen nor’easters and we’ve seen hurricanes before,” Cooper said, “but this one is different.”
Despite all that, 65-year-old Liz Browning Fox plans to ride the storm out in the Outer Banks village of Buxton, North Carolina, despite a mandatory evacuation order. Her 88-year-old mother refused to evacuate and will stay with her.
“Everyone who is staying here is either a real old-timer, someone who doesn’t know where would be better, or someone involved in emergency operations one way or another,” said Fox.
* * *
Is this normal?
TBP is close to being another garbage site. Getting to the comments is becoming almost impossible…….there are so many other ‘you might like’ stories plastered in between the article and the comments……what a waste of bandwidth for crap that is ignored.
UPDATE: Though I hate to admit using Chrome, I found an extension that blocks the TaBoola Feed….and it works!!
I liked the Big Tit ads they had several months ago.
What about the “Brutal Wedding Night” photos
I’ve tried. Cannot ID those things in the red collander,
under 15 cancer causing foods to avoid? Best guess? Swine intestines for chitterlings?
It’s an earthworm in the palm of a hand and across the fingers to the right.
Another sign BSHJ may be batting for the other team: skips all the girly ads to get to Maggie’s newest paranoid breakdown.
BSHJ
Create and run a better site and get back to us. Until then, send Admin some $$.
As a NC resident, my concern centers on two words: Hog lagoons. Actually, two more words on top of that: Coal ash.
Crimson- I agree. Seems that storing this stuff out in the open isn’t the brightest idea.
What eventually becomes of pig manure and coal ash? Does the manure break down over time or is there too much concentrated in relatively small areas to ever be rendered “safe”?
Is the ash eventually sequestered somehow or just allowed to leach into the ground?
“What eventually becomes of pig manure ….”
They become members of Congress.
You win Final Jeopardy.
Except you forgot to phrase it as a question.
CA,
As an eastern NC resident, my concern centers on two words:
Raleigh
Durham
That’s were most of the Leftest snowflake jelly heads and punk gangster wanna bes live or use as a base for intellectually vacuous or criminal forays into rural red flyover land.
Everyone is talking about bubbles popping…its the urban blue bubbles that are the most dangerous and they don’t need a hurricane to be destructive.
snarky, snark.
No argument here. I’m in Charlotte, another liberal bastion, and would trade places with you in a heartbeat. Though my dream would be to get a cabin in the woods and never see anyone else again 🙂
That what’s happens when big corporations run dirty pig farms with the pigs crammed into such small areas and eating unnatural food like GMO corn and soy. These pigs live in such bad conditions and get sick so easily, they have to inject them antibiotics just to get them to market. Hope all of you eating organic, naturally raised animal meats.
VV,
Good point…need to remind my wife who does the shopping, plus I treasure my toxic masculinity…don’t want to soy it up!
I have done a lot of consulting work in slaughter houses, cow, pig and chicken all over the Midwest and NC where I live. The stench will gag you…and one trip up to the kill floor is one to many.
As an American I want to tell my fellow citizens I have your back when you are stricken with such a catastrophe .
To bad far too few feel that way when their fellow citizens are hit with other catastrophes like pension plans being bankrupted out from under them or the local government taxes people out of their homes .
Disasters come in many shapes and sizes and an injury to one American should be something we do not turn our back on EVER !
Aside from George Bush’s weather machine there is nobody to blame for a natural disaster. Being robbed of a pension plan or taxed out of ones home is a man made disaster. Now if that happened to you and you want to march in protest to Dee-Cee or Wall St. with pitchforks in hand my comment to you is, 5-tine or 3-tine? I’ll be there.
Count me in…I have already faced down snowflakes sprinkled with antifa physically…will have no qualms shouldering the rail, slapping on the tar and the feathers…talk about American revival…we need that mass anger mass retribution mass defiance desperately.
Hurricane party at my place!
Over 6 hours last night the National Hurricane Center moved its forecast track almost 180 degrees. This would be funny if it weren’t so serious. People who might have been headed South on I=95 because North looked like it was going to get the bulk of the flooding now find they either must turn around or drive hundreds of miles further inland or to Florida to escape the storm effects. This is gross incompetence by the NHC and its mouthpiece, the Weather Channel.
Further, instead of strengthening, as was forecast, the hurricane has weakened a bit and it central pressure stabilized around 950mb. It will not be a Category 4 at landfall and maybe nothing more than the routine CAT2 that are routine for coastal Carolina.
Issuing worthless forecasts 4 or 5 days ahead seems to be the National Hurricane Center forte. The storms are ALWAYS estimated to be stronger when they are far out to sea which forces the NHC to backtrack when local TV station radars come into range. Meanwhile the NHC and Weather Channel spread panic and disinformation. They should be told to merely note a hurricane is possible but keep their filthy mouths shut until they have a reliable forecast!
But it makes such good tv. My buddy down texted, hes stocked and not worried, down in wilmington. Our local says hes gonna die. He says its barely rainin.
So the hurricane that was to hit hawaii just evaporated. Rense had interesting satellite photos looking mighty haarp-ee. So will they break this one too, or let it hit?
Join the discussion…Middle Fingers
I think your on to something that is about HAARP. I noticed last week that the cloud formations over the middle of the Mississippi valley had a strange arrangement to them, like when in science class they would sprinkle iron filings on a stiff piece of paper or glass to demonstrate the magnetic lines of force. It looked like water does when a rock is thrown in it, you know the waves.
Everyone says Hurricane Florence turning to the south is unprecedented for a hurricane along the east coast. Maybe HAARP has something to do with that.
Florence is going to be another DUD!
Just like that killer storm that was “certain” to devastate the left coast of Florida last year… 20-25mph winds and rather limited water damage outside of coastal areas.
https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCjfUtuBHuuXtVfi8DugB5aA/videos
Very interesting. She uses weather buoys shows old fashioned radar and that the pics are of other hurricanes. They don’t match tv news. Imagine that.
Meterology is similar to Economics in that both rely on Ph.Ds with models that don’t work. Here we have been bombarded for a week with dire warnings of ‘the strongest hurricane to ever hit this far north’ . Millions of people were told to evacuate but they were pointed in the wrong direction by the National Hurricane Center forecast storm track. Further, the NHC issued truly shocking forecasts of wind speeds of up to 155mph. Only those forecasts too were inaccurate. Despite passing through a low wind sheer environment over very warm waters Florence has weakened with its barometric pressure rising not falling and its maximum speeds dropping to a puny Category 2 level and it is still more than 180 miles out to sea in the Gulf Stream!
Folks, this is meterological malpractice on a colossal scale. People’s lives have been disrupted, Schools shut down schools from Virginia to Georgia because Dr. Rick Knab and his ilk do not know what they are doing