Guest Post by John Stossel
Republicans held the Senate! Democrats took the House but by a narrower margin!
Did I just embarrass myself?
I write this Election Day morning, before most polling places even opened. I don’t know the actual results, of course.
But I’ll pretend I do because I trust the betting odds.
As of Tuesday morning, ElectionBettingOdds.com, a site I co-founded, says Republicans have an 84 percent chance to hold the Senate and Democrats a 71 percent chance to retake the House.
Why trust a bunch of gamblers? Because they have the best track record!
Polls have flaws. Some people lie to pollsters or just give them what they think is the “proper” answer. Others won’t even talk to them.
Pundits are worse. They often let their personal preferences skew their predictions.
Bettors are more accurate because of something called the “wisdom of crowds.” It turns out that an average of many people’s estimates is usually more accurate than any one person’s views.
Researchers noticed that while watching the TV series “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire.” Stumped contestants could poll the audience or call a friend.
The friends, often experts of some kind, got answers right 65 percent of the time. The studio audience included few experts, but the crowd got the answer right 91 percent of the time.
The crowd that bets on elections online (political betting is legal in Europe and at a small American futures market called PredictIt.com) works hard to get the answers right.
They look at more than polls. They factor in the latest news, try to sense the mood on the ground and research candidates’ campaign tactics.
They try harder than pundits because their own money is on the line. You’ve met blowhards who confidently predict things until someone says, “Want to bet?” Then they shut up. People who put their money where their mouths are become more careful.
Prediction markets, or futures markets, are not new. Stock markets are prediction markets where people bet on companies’ future earnings. A hundred years ago, “More money was traded in election markets than in stock markets,” says economist Robin Hanson.
Then, unfortunately, governments in America banned most betting. That deprived Americans of one of the best predictors of future events.
There were a few exceptions. Fifteen years ago, U.S. officials asked Hanson to create a betting market that might predict future problems.
“The Department of Defense heard prediction markets were interesting, doing powerful things,” says Hanson. “They said, ‘Show us it works for stuff we do… (P)redict events in the Middle East.'”
As usual, some elected officials were horrified by the idea of people betting on things like possible terrorism. Sen. Ron Wyden stood up on the Senate floor to declare such betting “ridiculous and grotesque.” The next day, the secretary of Defense declared the project dead.
So the Pentagon is deprived of predictions that might save lives. It’s too bad, because bettors are just, well, better.
But not perfect. While the betting odds are almost always the best predictors, in the last presidential election they (along with polls and pundits) were wrong about Donald Trump. Bettors gave him only a 20 percent chance.
I shouldn’t say “wrong.” Twenty percent just means Trump had a 1 in 5 chance. That’s not nothing.
Gallup Poll That Hasn’t Been Wrong Since 1946 Indicates GOP Will Keep House
The betting markets also got Brexit wrong. They gave it a 25 percent chance.
But in both cases, as election results came in, the betting odds shifted much faster than the TV coverage. It was fun watching anchors try to catch up to what ElectionBettingOdds.com already predicted on my phone.
As I write, the website says this about specific states:
Republicans will narrowly win Arizona (51 percent chance) and Missouri (57), and easily win North Dakota (80), Tennessee (80) and Texas (79).
By the time you read this, say bettors, Democrats will have flipped Nevada (60 percent chance) and held West Virginia (75), Montana (65) and New Jersey (81).
Republicans will win the Georgia governor’s race (64 percent chance), but Scott Walker will lose in Wisconsin (59), and Florida now probably has a new far-left governor (64).
Were the bettors right?
I assume some were not. After all, a 60 percent chance of winning means winning only 6 out of 10 times.
Whatever way it turns out, we’ll add the results to the “track record” section at ElectionBettingOdds.com.
We’ll also keep tracking the 2020 presidential race.
Odds update every five minutes, but Tuesday morning the odds for 2020 were:
Donald Trump: 36.1 percent
Kamala Harris: 10.9 percent
Elizabeth Warren: 5.9 percent
Tulsi Gabbard: 5.7 percent
Bernie Sanders: 4.2 percent
Joe Biden: 4.1 percent
Unfortunately, I don’t see many advocates of restrained government on that list.
The senate mattered house didnt. House had 36 rinos stopping trump and manynof them were replaced with real democrapmwolves vs rinos wolves in sheeps clothing. 2020 house flips back to gop….
Hope so.
Trump will be unimpeded in appointing federal judges which is huge. Legal scholars say his appointments to the federal bunch so far are likely the largest group of highly qualified non partisan constitutionalists ever appointed by one President. Now nothing stops filling every vacancy quickly. The courts will all be fully manned and this may well be a huge legacy.
There is very little a President with a safe Senate majority cannot do. I don’t like Dhimmicrats but RINO Ryan was more of an obstacle than Pelosi. All the things the Senate and or President can do to the House in a food fight were off the table with RINO Ryan in charge. Not so with the opposition in charge. If the crackpots want to amp up the “Russia” investigation, the Senate and DOJ can do the same to every leaker, the Hillary campaign, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, ad nauseam.
Looking through some of the results of voting around the country, I have made several observations.
First and foremost, much of the voting class did not exercise their right and, IMHO, duty as a citizen to cast a ballot. In Texas alone, there are 19M eligible voters. 8.1M made the trip to the ballot box, which means 43% of eligible voters were too busy to care, too lazy to make the effort, or grossly ignorant…..I’m more apt to believe the latter.
Observation two: The majority of flaming liberal elected candidates became a sitting member of congress by convincing 18-29 y/o that voting for them will give them free free free! And they apparently left playing Xbox or drinking coffee at Starbucks long enough to put their “hero” into office. The fact that the indoctrinated, uneducated, nose-in-the-phone, whining, babbling, living in mom’s basement, feminized, unmanly, scream-in-your-face-but-don’t-yell-at-me generation of our country can have a vote that counts equally as much as the smaller government, 2nd amendment supporter, constitutionalist American makes me ponder if our system isn’t perhaps due for an overhaul. But those suggestions are for another day and a much longer post.
Observation three: Not requiring voter ID, supporting and allowing sanctuary cities, easily manipulated voting ballots leads to elected officials that really weren’t elected at all. The corruption and scum level violations of our laws has reached an all-time low (or should that be high?) and, again in my opinion, has confiscated our most basic of right; to place in office the representative that will best uphold our constitution for the CITIZENS of this country.
What we must remember is God is still in control, no matter what we think, believe, feel, or wish for. But it doesn’t mean we don’t act.
I leave you with a quote from DD Eisenhower that seems very fitting of today’s results.
In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist. We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes. We should take nothing for granted. Only an alert and knowledgeable citizenry can compel the proper meshing of the huge industrial and military machinery of defense with our peaceful methods and goals, so that security and liberty may prosper together.
May God bless America
Eisenhower , perhaps the last decent man we had in office.
Speaking of “Done in Dallas” (every pun intended) what about this Executive Order from a President? After all it cost him his life.
https://rense.com//general44/exec.htm
“According to information from the Library of the Comptroller of the Currency, Executive Order 11,110 remains in effect today.”
Above is how we could start taking our country back…now that’s a 4th Turning I’s eagerly fight for/in.