Will Trump Lose in 2020? But to Who?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

There is a very interesting aspect of our model which will begin to come into play in 2020. The cycle is changing here in 2019 and we are entering a period of a new political trend into 2023. This not such a great thing for either party. What is clearly taking place is that the shutdown seems to have been a turning point. True, Trumps polls have collapsed to 37% approval. But at the same time, faith in Congress has also collapsed. This is introducing a trend our model has been pointing to – the rise of a 3rd Party going all the way into 2024. Polls are fickle. It is a long time between here and the election in 2020.

The attention span of the people seems to be too short to remember this shutdown one two years from now. Trump miscalculated. The President is ALWAYS credited or blamed because people assume the President is all powerful. So Pelosi understood that no matter what she does, Trump will be blamed and not her. Trump had to yield for the shutdown will reduce the GDP and he will be unable to say he has done a good job with a strong economy. That is just how politics works in Washington and it was a hard lesson Trump had to learn. Still, the damage is not really about the shutdown itself. It seems to be centered on the fact that both sides acted like children demonstrating that neither party seems capable of managing anything.

 

When we arrive at 2020, this is the big turning point for a 3rd Party. The Press and career politicians on both sides are out to get Trump simply because he is not one of them. But that does not mean the people are ready to surrender to career politicians once again. The crazy thing on our model is that it clearly shows that there is a 13 election year cycle coming into play in 2020 for a strong 3rd Party Showing. In 1912, there was a 30% vote for a 3rd party. Then in 1968, there was a 13% vote for a 3rd party. Since the last 3rd party took 19% in 1992 and 10% in 1996, a 3rd party this time could match or exceed 19% in 2020.

We already have the former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz talking about that he may run in 2020 but as an Independent. As crazy as that may sound to those wrapped up in party politics, our model is showing that this is the trend.

That Fox Poll is most interesting. It said that 46% of Republicans identified with Trump rather than the Republican Party. The implications of this are significant. It is not that Trump is some fantastic person, but that people are beginning to identify with candidates instead of parties. This is confirming what our computer is forecasting. The rise of a 3rd party is ripe for the taking. More and more people will vote for a person rather than a party.

The generation of Roosevelt is gone. There is really no adult from the Great Depression still alive today. Therefore, despite the critical emails I get, this is never about my opinion. The numbers are the numbers as is time. This has NOTHING to do with who I would vote for. Quite frankly, I do not see either party as doing anything to save the nation no less the world from the shift in power our computer is forecasting.

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18 Comments
Iska Waran
Iska Waran
January 30, 2019 2:31 pm

He’ll be up against Kamala Harris. We’ll see how her Bay Area worldview sells outside of CA.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Iska Waran
January 31, 2019 9:20 am

IS the Bay Area the future of America? Possibly. Homeless publicly defecating in the streets leaving piles of fecal matter and addict needles everywhere, from San Franshitco down to San Diego, home of the hepatitus outbreaks- Americans would be wise to steer clear of California politicians looking to bring their style of running government to the rest of the country.

Ned
Ned
January 30, 2019 2:33 pm

comment image

grace country pastor
grace country pastor
  Ned
January 31, 2019 11:32 am

Thank you Ned.

splurge
splurge
January 30, 2019 3:30 pm

There is no apparent reason to align with a political party. Both of them seem primarily concerned with the destruction of everyone else.

TC
TC
January 30, 2019 3:30 pm

Ironically Trump has been the best thing to happen to Jews since FDR, so it’s not much of a surprise that a Jewish billionaire would become the 3-way spoiler to keep Trump in office another 4 years.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
January 30, 2019 3:42 pm

This is not a discussion about a “3rd party,” but merely a discussion about some clown who may or may not run OUTSIDE of either the democrat or republican parties. In 1860, the republicans finally had their act together enough to run candidates from one end of the political landscape to the other. It helped that back then you could walk into a polling station and simply submit a pre-printed party ballot and ballot restrictions were next to nill. So Lincoln’s election came with House and Senate victories as well as victories in state houses as well. Real nationwide change was possible. When Ross Perot ran, he worked very hard to put together the Reform Party and run candidates everywhere he could as well. This at least gave the people a REAL option that could provide additional legislative support for his agenda in both Congress and in state legislatures around the country. But thanks in part to his presence in the polls and on the stage at the debates, the worthless scum in the two major parties have worked tirelessly in every state legislature and at the federal level, to make sure such disruptions of the status quo would never have another chance in hell.

In every state, there are “ballot access” laws that dictate what it takes to get onto the ballot. In some states the restrictions are quite innocuous, but in most, they are down-right oppressive. For some they are tied to “permanent” ballot status (generally achieved by vote totals during the off-year gubernatorial contest), but most are tied to signatures or fees. In California, when I was running for office, you could substitute voter registrations to the party in lieu of money for the filing fee. They were called “signatures in lieu of filing fee.” In Georgia, such a mechanism is called a “Pauper’s Petition.” No bias there….right?? And then there is the signature requirement. In states where citizen initiatives are being put on the ballot left and right, signing a petition is no big deal for most. In states where such things are not allowed, just try getting anyone to sign your petition to be on the ballot. Things are SO BAD in the state of Georgia that a 3rd party candidate has not been able to qualify to be on the ballot for a US House race since 1935!!!! And HE was a Socialist Party candidate. In California, with permanent ballot status, our local Libertarian party group could get a candidate on the ballot with 140 signatures and no filing fees. For a complete discussion and a detailed description of every state’s rules on ballot access, there is NO better place online than Richard Winger’s site – http://www.ballot-access.org. There you can see just how horrible the two parties COLLUDE to keep away any possible competition. Simply disgusting.

Then there are the debates. When Ross Perot was in the debates, he blew the other two losers away by actually talking about things that mattered to the citizens. How horrible. Those debates were moderated by the League of Women Voters. Not so now. Now the two-party oligarchy controls the debates, and they have the right to set the bar for participation to pretty much anything they want (Candidate X is at 14% in the polls, the bar gets set at 15%, etc.). And if by chance someone magically clears the hurdle, the two worthless party candidates can simply refuse to participate and the mainstream media networks will most certainly cancel the debate and NEVER give national air time to the upstart candidate.

Then there is media coverage. Do you think that the mainstream media will make the same mistake this time as they did with Trump last time? They gave him a million hours of free advertising time, just in their constant bashing. And it backfired on them. That won’t happen again. Harris is way back and yet getting free coverage of her “Senate town hall” meetings (campaign rallies) on CNN because the powers that be demand it.

Then there is social media. Everything that Ron Paul harnessed to motivate his “Revolution” was further exploited by candidates going forward, and expertly by Trump and his supporters, as a means to get around the media lies. Now the entire conversation is 100% controlled by the giants, and even wearing a MAGA hat in a pic on your Facebook page will soon get you banished as a “white supremacist.”

It was Ron Paul’s desire to fill the GOP up with folks who actually cared about freedom and liberty, and I can tell you from my own personal experience in trying to help him out, that the GOP leadership wants NOTHING to do with freedom OR liberty anymore. Its all about control and winning elections and whatever that takes, regardless of what P0S is running or their positions on the issues. It is probably even worse in the democrat party (as Sanders’ experience showed). So real change is heavily resisted in the two status quo parties.

Starting, growing, and maintaining an actual 3rd party is nothing short of impossible these days. People simply don’t want to put out the work, and most new parties are as internally schizophrenic in their beliefs as the democrats and republicans. There are no consistent principles for anyone to rally around, and certainly nothing good enough to make anyone want to walk away from team giant douche or team turn sandwich.

And then there is the demonization. The non-stop demonization. Our vote is precious we are told. It is the most important thing in our existence as Americans we are told. But let us find a candidate that supports our beliefs, our vision for the future, our respect for freedom and liberty, small government, sound money, sound foreign policy,, etc. and expect the cries of “why are you throwing away your vote,” and “if you vote for him, you might as well vote for the democrat (or republican)” because you are going to help that candidate win. So your vote matters…but only if you vote the way I tell you to. Just look at what the democrats did to Ralph Nader, or how many still blame Ross Perot for Clinton’s win (rather than what a piece of lying shit Bush was).

So there might be a massive impetus for an alternative to the two-party duopoly that continues to destroy this country. I certainly hope there is. But unlike coming up with a great idea and buying infomercial time and selling a million items, getting the people behind your run, your new party (if one is even part of the plan), or getting on enough ballots, enough TV sets, or the debate stage, is NOTHING like it was even back in 1992 when Perot was poised to truly disrupt the status quo. And even then it took his massive fortune to buy access…..heaven forbid a regular guy or gal try.

Donkey Balls
Donkey Balls
  MrLiberty
January 30, 2019 7:44 pm

Thanks for taking the time to write all of that.

Why dont you ask admin for contributor status? I’m sure he would oblige.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
  Donkey Balls
January 30, 2019 7:56 pm

Thanks. Most people don’t appreciate the true realities of 3rd parties in this country, what the two big ones do to keep them down, or what really goes on in the bowels of the two majors. Figured some info, even if long-winded, would clear things up a bit.

Rather, Not
Rather, Not
January 30, 2019 4:21 pm

I don’t believe that chart is accurately reflecting Republican voting from 1824- at least 1856.

Rob Clark
Rob Clark
January 30, 2019 5:23 pm

Apparently, it’s a slow day for news. I could have written that article in 90 seconds. I do however believe the commie/democrat party is about to implode. Any liberal, running against the commie chosen one will have a negligeble impact statistically. Trump 20/20? Maybe, maybe not. If there’s still no wall, what’s the point?

BB
BB
  Rob Clark
January 30, 2019 6:55 pm

If he would build that damn wall on the southern border his numbers would go through the roof . This wall was a promise he made to everyone that voted for him. If he does not follow up or through he should just go back to NY City.

This is off topic but I saw this today . ” It is time to confess ; the Apollo 11 mission , which landed man for the first time on the moon ,was staged ,none of it was real ” Buzz Aldrin . 11/6 /14 . This has since been taken down by some ” government agency” . It was a real Twitter by him. All these people at NASA are liars. Everything picture you see having anything to with ” Outer space ” is all CGI fake bullshit. We can never leave low Earth orbit. Google the Firmament to see why. Or the Van Allen radiation belts.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
  BB
January 30, 2019 8:04 pm

Buzz routinely gets into shouting and even physical confrontations when folks suggest that the whole thing was BS. I find it hard to believe that he would somehow awaken from his permanent MKUltra-induced fantasy land and speak the truth. More likely someone hijacked his Twitter account and posted it. I mean it would be great to think that he finally spoke up, but doubting this seriously.

Brian Reilly
Brian Reilly
January 30, 2019 7:21 pm

How long would/might it take for two new organizations to spring up from the decomposing Dem and Repub organizations? How many current (perhaps quietly disaffected) Dems and Repubs would make common cause in one of the new organizations? Would POC all go to one of them?

What about all the down ballot (everything below POTUS) races? Develop and implement a comprehensive organization? Not likely, not fast. A third party POTUS without primary allegiance to one or the other would not not work, I don’t think. The Media would never allow it. That is why Schulz will not, can not win, unless dsomehow the ems implode and go away faster than I can see happening. On the other hand, I could see a 3rd party candidate capture all the rump of the Repubs (the deplorables) and a lot of quietly disaffected Dems and win. Trump, for instance. Not likely, but possible.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
  Brian Reilly
January 30, 2019 8:06 pm

In the end, the scare tactics regarding the election as being “the most important in our lifetime,” “the one that will determine the future of our country,” and “too important to risk [them] winning,” will keep all the deplorable sheep from ever straying too far. If need be, some false flag event will bring them all back with flags a’waving.

Mike
Mike
January 30, 2019 10:46 pm

Trump will not run again. He can’t win and he knows it. No republican can win in 2020. Jesus as a Republican can’t win in 2020.

Look at the last election. Both flor ida and Texas almost went blue. Florida almost electing a black communist for governor and Cruz barely beating a fake Hispanic. By 2020, with legal and illegal immigration, both states will fall to the dems. Therefore, there is not enough electoral college votes for any Republican to win the presidency. The democrats mass immigration strategy has been a success for their party, and we are looking at 40 years of one party rule.

Venuszula is our future…. : (

Morongobill
Morongobill
  Mike
January 31, 2019 9:22 am

Better get that next Supreme Court seat or else.

Richard Daugherty
Richard Daugherty
January 31, 2019 1:58 pm

Not to fear. President Donald Trump in a complete blowout. Call me Nostradamus! Remember you heard it here first.