Guest Post by Joel Bowman
The only reason for time is so that everything doesn’t happen at once.
~ Albert Einstein
We write to you today from the past, Dear Reader… and the future, too. Our former and future home city – Buenos Aires – is both a reflection of days gone, and harbinger of things to come.
Neither good, nor bad, it stands as a monument to sentiments ongoing… at once romantic, nostalgic, chaotic and terrific.
Strolling around the city… along her wide-open boulevards and cobbled stone streets… through her lush parks and leafy plazas… around her café corners and restaurant-lined alleys… we don’t see a futuristic megatropolis.
The “Paris of the South” is not a Shanghai or a Dubai. In some parts, it’s barely even a Mumbai.
There are some modern buildings, down in trendy Puerto Madero… but it’s as bland and uniform there as in any other “big smoke” capital around the world. In all the years we’ve been journeying here, we’ve probably visited the area twice.
The real charm, as you might expect, is to be found in this city’s older barrios. Recoleta… San Telmo… Palermo. There, stepping into the street is like stepping into a Borges poem or a Cortázar novel.
Imagine architecture from the ‘20s (the good), politics from the ‘50s (the bad) and haircuts from the ‘80s (the ugly). Here at the end of the world, the past holds something for everyone.
Alas, as far as abstract concepts can express a preference, time has not exactly been on Argentina’s side.
At the turn of the 20th century, this country was among the top ten most prosperous nations on earth. Only Switzerland, Britain, Belgium and a handful of former English colonies – including the United States – were more favorably positioned, economically.
In 1913, Argentina’s bustling, cosmopolitan capital had one of the highest telephone penetration rates in the world. Her per capita income at the time was 50% higher than in Italy, almost twice that of Japan and five times greater than her northern neighbor, Brazil.
Argentina’s industry, manned by competent, entrepreneurial individuals, churned out quality textiles and barcos frigoríficos (refrigerated ships) carried her prized beef, first introduced in 1536 by the Spanish Conquistadors, from the fertile plains of las pampas to the farthest reaches of the known world.
But as the century wore on, protectionist policies at home and increased competition from the post-WWII, export-led economies abroad colluded to undermine Argentina’s international edge.
From 1900 through to the beginning of the new millennium, Argentina’s real GDP per person grew at a rate of barely 1.8% per year. Brazil outpaced her handily, growing at a 2.4% annualized rate. And Japan, starting with a real GDP per person of roughly $1,500 (2019 equivalent dollars) at the turn of the twentieth century, grew an average of 2.8% per year.
Today, Japan’s real GDP per person (at USD$40,000) is almost quadruple that of Argentina’s (USD$10,400).
Currency debasement, war, civil unrest, military rule and the usual circus of politicians, equally corrupt and inept, all conspired to stultify Argentina’s vast potential.
In many ways, if you wish to see a version of America’s (and Canada’s, Europe’s, Australia’s, etc.) future, it helps to take a walk with the ghost of Argentina’s past.
Of course, the idea of traveling back in time by heading abroad is not a new one. In his 1928 collection, Skeptical Essays, the eccentric English polymath, Bertrand Russell, observed as much. It’s worth quoting him at length here, as his insights are at once timeless… and a product of their own time.
Everybody knows Wells’s Time Machine, which enabled its possessor to travel backwards or forwards in time, and see for himself what the past was like and what the future will be. But people do not always realize that a great deal of the advantages of Well’s device can be secured by travelling about the world at the present day.
A European who goes to New York and Chicago sees the future, the future to which Europe is likely to come if it escapes economic disaster. On the other hand, when he goes to Asia he sees the past. In India, I am told, he can see the Middle Ages; in China he can see the eighteenth century.
If George Washington were to return to earth, the country which he created would puzzle him dreadfully. He would feel a little less strange in England, still less strange in France; but he would not feel really at home until he reached China. There, for the first time in his ghostly wanderings, he would find men who still believe in ‘life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness’, and who conceive these things more or less as Americans of the War of Independence conceived them. And I think it would not be long before he became President of the Chinese Republic.
Obviously, the world has changed plenty since Mr. Russell penned those words back in the roaring 1920s, before the Chinese Communists prevailed and replaced Chinese liberty with servitude to the almighty state.
For starters, many of the skyscrapers of New York and Chicago today stand in the shadows of those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. In fact, seven of the world’s tallest ten buildings are to be found in the Far East (five on the Chinese mainland; one each in Taipei and South Korea).
As for the Middle East, the world’s tallest building, The Burj Khalifa in Dubai, is as tall as the Empire State Building and the Willis (formerly Sears) Tower… stacked on top of one another!
The Abraj Al-Bait Tower in Mecca, Saudi Arabia (3rd) and One World Trade Center, New York (6th) round out the top ten. The U.S. does not feature in the next 10 rankings.
As for politics and culture…
We’d pay good (gold) money to hear Mr. Washington’s thoughts on the state of the modern day pre-election circus. And why stop there? Who wouldn’t toss a quarter sovereign into the hat to see the rest of the Founding Fathers up on the debate stage?
What choice words might Mr. Jefferson offer to the “freshperson congressperson” from New York, rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez? What advice would thrifty Mr. Franklin pay budget-busting Mr. Trump? And how about Messrs. Paine, Adams and Hamilton? Might they have a thing or two to say to the bench-warming B-Team of Beto, Bernie, Biden and Buttigieg?
More to the point, what might these “ghostly figures” think of the hulking leviathan over which today’s droopy candidates hope to take charge? And what of those quaint notions of “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”?
Our suspicion is that the Founders would soon be looking for Wells’s Time Machine… hoping to catch a ride to another place and another time.
Stay tuned for more tales from the end of the world…
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The difference in advancement generally comes down to level of corruption. The more corrupt the nation, the more retarded the economic advancement. Sth America is enormously corrupt, as is Asia and Africa. And the US has marched steadily down that path for a long time now.
Your assessment is bang on, Llpoh, and I entirely agree. Can’t add anything here: formula is Corruption (C) = negative growth (-G) + Misery (M)
Big government and large-scale central planning bring big corruption (and misery). Even China will fail with this “model.” Expect failure and revolution there (and the EU).
For South America and developing countries, they don’t have a critical mass of self-organizing, higher median IQ persons (like white Northern Europeans or East Asian descent) to create prosperity. To try to keep up with the Joneses, their governments, filled with incompetent people that reflect their population, try to pursue government run enterprises (Socialism). The results are a takeover by Leftists and corruption and failure. Of course, the results are rather poor either with or without the government.
Bottom line: The biggest problem for Argentina is Argentinians (and Leftism). The big problem for Venezuela is Venezuelans. The big problem for Brazil is Brazilians. The biggest problems for Mexico is Mexicans. Who else? Leftism/Socialism is the problem. It can’t overcome lower median IQ of it’s population.
Would that be anal penetration, or what?
Summary of Meh article;
—1) America sucks … and has shitty skyscrapers.
—2) He’s moving to Argentina so ….. fuck you plebes.
—3) He’ll write moar bullshit in the future.
Stuck – Buenos Aires or NJ? I would not like to be a plebe in either of those places, I gotta say. I mean, a gringo in Sth America when the shit hits the fan? Ditto for a lot of NJ.
Sth America is cheap. Other than that, it has little going for it.
Re the skyscrapers – so, the status of a nation revolves around its skyscrapers? What a load of crap.
Loopey- Says you, I have Argentina on my short list for places I would migrate to in the case of SHTF here in the US. Recoleta and Palermo districts of Buenos Aires are well suited to Merican expats. As of today, 42 Argentine Pesos to the USD.
Best of all, Argentina is 96% European descended population.
Good for you.
Maybe you can buy a small place next to Doug Casey the International Carpetbagger. If you do, don’t come back – the rest of us who stay will resent the dead weight.
I suggest you remove Argentina from your list unless you’re bilingual or highly fluent. in Spanish. Buenos Aires in many ways is not Argentina and Recoleta and Palermo are not Buenos Aires, a city to which I no longer travel and I live in Argentina. As for 96% Euro-descended, well, perhaps, but don’t equate that with European-in-all-but-name, because a surprise will await you.
Hey! It isn’t just for horses any more!
Goats munch on it too…
I gotta really really really big Memorial Day project ongoing Stuckenmeister. Like Ed Sullivan once said… a really really really big shoe. My Dad wore size 16DDDD in the Navy. They had to order his shoes special. In Japan, he wore bamboo sandals for years.
He liked flags. He told me interesting stories about flags and how people think they hear but refuse to listen.
Lord, have mercy on us all. I’m listening now.
Are you going to fill us in on that “really really really big Memorial Day project”? Or, not … which would be rather cruel considering you used “really” THREE times.
OTOH, if it has anything to do with the cutting off of testicles of any male of any species — then I will take a pass.
Upon reading Quigley’s Tragedy & Hope, something that jumped out at me in the first reading, and found in the first 50 pages or so, was his realization regarding the correlation between the order of technological advancements and real/actual societal advancment. The U.S. was, at one time, blessed with revolutionary advancements in “the right order” again and again.
A fine example of the “wrong order” presents itself in British ruled India. India received a cursed-gift from the British in the form of a “revolution” in travel via the British criss-crossing the place with rail lines. For the best results, Quigley recognized that this should have been preceeded by “revolutions” in sanitation and health care. It wasn’t and the rail lines became a disease-vector due to extremely poor sanitation which was then compounded by poor and unscientific health care.
I wonder if the U.S. (and certainly, many others) is not experiencing the same thing now. We have had, and are living in/through, a “revolution” in communications, for one example. For the best results, it appears, that this should have been preceeded by revolutions in several other areas such as education and governance/law, and dare I say, morality (versus the widespread degeneracy playing out?). It wasn’t and now communications has become a vector for all kinds of just plain weird shit…
How about the “revolution” in weaponry? What “revolutions” should have come before to prevent every mad-scientist-asshole with a CRISPR from releasing weapons with the potential to create giga-deaths?
How much of the current prosperity or lack thereof, whether in China, Dubai, Argentina, BRICS or elswhere, is defined by prior “revolutions” in specific areas occurring in the “wrong” or “right” order?
Is the current plight of Argentina simply due to post WWII competition? Quigley might, and I say MIGHT, present other hypotheses.
I’ve lived in Argentina for 15 years, but not in a gated gringo compound. When I arrived in the rural village in which I chose to build, this was still a wild west kind of place with respect to regulations and such. With the exception of my son and his mother, I am the only native English speaker here. The local dialect of Spanish is so strong that when my Spanish wife arrived here five months after I did, I had to interpret for her. We moved here from Spain over her great resistance and did so because real property was a real bargain at the time; it no longer is. The “planned communities” featuring polo fields and such are not only overpriced, they are not places one would wish to be in a SHTF situation, largely because the residents have made little or no effort to assimilate, usually preferring their own company .
If I were to be considering a move to South America, depending upon one’s climate preferences, I’d choose Chile, Perú, perhaps Colombia, and in a few weeks I’ll have seen whether or not Ecuador would go on the list.
As for “another place and another time”, rural Argentina does offer that vibe and it’s very pleasant for some, myself included. I’ve had all the bright lights, big city excitement I’ve ever needed, thanks. All things considered, however, unless one speaks Spanish, rural South America will prove to be a serious challenge for a move these days.
As for Argentina being a bellwether for the USA, well, I might just buy that for a dollar.
Argentina goes broke every few years. Who keeps loaning them money?