Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
The latest death toll in China has reached at least 490 people who have died out of 24,324 confirmed to be infected (about 2%). The 1918 flu pandemic, which lasted nearly two years, killed more than 500,000 Americans, historians estimate. The CDC estimates this year, 19,000,000 – 26,000,000 have been infected with the flu. They estimate 8,600,000 – 12,000,000 will seek flu medical visits of which 180,000 – 310,000 will be hospitalized and the death toll will be between 10,000 and 25,000. The number for just the normal flu season is far worse than this coronavirus. The Flu killed and hospitalized more people in the United States 2017/2018 winter than any seasonal influenza in decades since 1918. Some 80,000 people died in the United States alone.
If we assume that about 45% of those infected seek medical help using the standard flu numbers, then with 24,324 confirmed persons infected, that means there should be about 53,512 people infected so far. China has come down very hard trying to contain this outbreak. Chinese tourism has all but collapsed and we should see a very sharp decline in the economic output in China for the first quarter of 2020. They stopped flights to Hong Kong as well. China has been clamping down aggressively. We were planning a Shanghai WEC in May. The hotel is closed right now and so far it does not look good. The government has directed employees to remain home for 10 days. It looks like we will be doing Frankfurt and Orlando.
Nevertheless, while this may become a pandemic since it spreads like influenza each year, we still need to be concerned about the Bird Flu and Swine flu for if they cross to humans, the death toll will not be a mere 2%. Definitely, don’t eat any bat-burgers this year. Maybe beef is better this year. (I know the vegetarians will write in, I respect that. I have even tried the charcoal ice cream. I still like a good burger).
So why are people exaggerating this coronavirus? Good question! People have been feeling like the world is ending for thousands of years. Aethelred II took his portrait off the coinage for the year 1000 believing the world was coming to an end and Christ would make his second coming. When that did not happen, he promptly put his portrait back on the coinage.
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It’s interesting how this trope keeps making its rounds.
Obviously with an incubation period of up to two weeks the deaths are going to lag behind confirmed cases. And, with the shortage of tests they can only confirm a couple thousand a day. The CDC call on friday at my hospital said 10%, but lets use your figure of 2%. 2% of 20 million is 400K or an order of magnitude higher than your flu total, and you still dont think that is serious. Keep in mind that if that happens most people won’t have access to an ICU since they will be full.
Honestly I’m waiting for data from countries that don’t arrest doctors for reporting on emerging heath threats.
EVERYTHING about this “flu” is speculation. GovCo’s around the world will continue to do/say what is in their own best self interest, not yours. Hopefully your as healthy as you can be, but stay away from crowds and take whatever precautions you think are necessary.
Another attempt at normalcy bias? Please. The average flu rarely causes pneumonia and the average flu rarely causes a need for ICU respirators. The average flu doesn’t cause over 80 million to be quarantined or governments to essentially destroy their economies while declaring martial law. The average flu doesn’t cause governments to build new hospitals for thousands of sick people virtually overnight. The average flu doesn’t threaten the global economy.
Swine flu and avian flu are often the result of factory farming. Massive amounts of animals squashed into small areas, no fresh air or sunshine, drugs used to treat the illnesses caused by overcrowding are all contributors to disease (flu)outbreaks.
If this novel corona virus fails to create the catastrophe that is happening in China over here then we should count our blessings. Until the end of the month we won’t have a good handle on where things go.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/05/chinas-coronavirus-not-remotely-control-world-economy-mounting2/
What an idiot.
This is ravaging China and shutting down factory’s left and right.
World corporations can’t get components from Chinese suppliers.
This could easily crash the world economy worst case.
Of course no one knows for sure how it will ultimately play out and we aren’t going to for weeks, months and possibly years.
If it isn’t the big one it is still one more big mess that continues to weaken the world system as a whole.
Who is this fucking idiot?
Believe it or not one of the greatest, hated by mainstream, economist ever. I have tremendous respect for him but highly disagree with his article.
Whether it is manufactured or real, it is beyond time to liquidate.
I liquidated all investment holding to cash. I am not prepared because our home situation is in flux and moving but have not bought a place yet so the food storage issue is not prepared and i am worried i wont have time to buy a place and buy preps….
It’s about control.
As things progress, it will become apparent that every little thing made in China is a part of every other thing built in China or anywhere else. Things will become scarce as millions flush with tax returns run out to buy things. Better stock up on essentials now. Whether this virus turns out to be a really big deal is irrelevant because the supply chain has already been broken.
Maybe this is a different way to cause collusive inflation to allow pricing power to offset trumps tariffs….this was not an accident and is a focused economic point.