Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
The market was ready for the crash. The Coronavirus is really just the excuse. It would have been whatever. The markets were going down. It was like our forecast that a third-party candidate could win in 2016 when we made that back in 1985. That was just the timing. It was not a forecast of who it would be. The fundamental seems to emerge to fit the timing.
As far as Coronavirus is concerned, it is just an excuse. December to February the 2018-2019 flu season according to CDC, they estimated that 16.5 million people went to a health care provider last year for the flu and more than 34,000 people died. That was 5% of the American population. The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness increased slightly to 1.7%, which is below the national baseline of 2.2%.
The flu has results generally in 9.3 million to 49 million illnesses each year in the United States since 2010. That means that 5% up to 20% of the United States population gets the flu. Why all this craziness over the Coronavirus seems to be fed to people who love to spread conspiracy theories for the wilder this gets, like 911, the government can justify more power. In Germany, the finance minister is proposing to NATIONALIZE companies because the rules do not allow bailouts.
So are these people knowingly spreading these conspiracies and creating a major panic deliberately, or are they being fed a story the Deep State knows they will use to paint the end of the world? To what purpose? If the death rate is 2% or 7%, so what? Biological weapons like Antrax have a death rate of 60%+ and the Black Plague killed 50% of the population. We are not at such a dire level yet they have scared the hell out of everyone. Others are trying to use this to overthrow Trump. Why? Are they closet Communists?
This is the 7th flu season since the low of 2011. We have 156,000 infected and 5800 deaths, but not everyone seeks medical attention. The press which hates Trump is already blaming him to try to influence the election from Vanity Fair to the Washington Post. You can see that those eager to blame Trump are clearly political critics and others just think that if the world crashes and burns, they will be rolling in wealth because they have gold or Bitcoin even if there is no power grid. It’s like trying to flee a hurricane in a Tesla with no hope of plugging in your car.
It is estimated that the flu results in 31.4 million outpatient visits and more than 200,000 hospitalizations each year. The 2017-2018 flu season was one of the longest in recent years, and estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu. The 2017-2018 flu season saw children dying whereas the 2018-2019 flu season took the greatest toll on adults age 65 years and older. About 58 percent of the estimated hospitalizations occurred in that age group.
I fail to understand why these people must always paint the worst possible scenario. They seem to be the same people touting gold and Bitcoin. Are they spreading this information hoping to illegally benefit from creating fake of exaggerated reports? In equities, that is jail time under the SEC. You cannot talk up your own book.
As far as the dumping of gold and Bitcoin, yes, this is what I was talking about that this crisis would be a combination of 2008 & 1998. Here the problem is not mortgage-backed securities, but hedge fund was buying piles of US Treasuries and selling the derivatives trying to lock in guaranteed trades as always. The spread has reversed and we have seen massive selling of off-the-run Treasuries which are the older issues. The market is not as deep for the older issues and they normally trade at a slight discount to the current benchmark. Here, they crashed as were trading at 25bp below. This was reflecting panic selling to raise cash. This is what I meant about a revisit of 1998. Hedge funds get trapped and start selling everything. Hence, those who thought gold was the safe haven were caught on the wrong side of the Quantity Theory of Money philosophy and discovered that “cash is [not] trash”, but KING! Yes, the rumor is one fund lost $32 billion last week.
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One should ask why all these people die from the flu each year when we’re supposed to have the best medical capabilities in the world. I suspect it’s nutrition and weakened immune systems.
People eat shit like Doritos, Coke, and all sorts of factory processed crap passed off as food. The medical establishment is just an extension of big pharma as their solution to almost everything is some chemical pill.
What ever happened to clean natural food that people could afford. The morons that eat ‘food’ that they warm in a microwave deserve all the diseases they often get for being stupid.
When this wake up call simmers down, I hope people will realize that factory farming is killing them but slowly, so that big pharma can make a buck as they wither and die. We need to kill off corporate farming, kill off the propaganda that is advertising and return to sustainable practices. New rule – if it’s not directly from nature it isn’t food and you can’t sell it.
SAO, I fear they are going to double down on the Big Ag GMO Glyphosated Processed food. It’ll be Institutionalized Government Mandated Food Lines for the Masses. But I’m hoping I’m wrong and you’re right. And I also hope Armstrong is right about the Cash is King thing. But hope is a thing with feathers.
“What ever happened to clean natural food that people could afford”
people can’t afford it.
People can’t afford it because crap was allowed to be passed off as food and because it’s crap, it’s cheaper. People bought it because they don’t know any better due to gov’t schools providing propaganda as opposed to education.
There used to be the ‘Reinheitsgebot’ in Germany that made it illegal to brew beer with anything other than water, barley and hops. Yeast wasn’t part of the list because they didn’t know yeast existed back then. That was the way it was for hundreds of years until the EU came along and allowed all sorts of crap to be introduced. The Reinheitsgebot was rescinded.
The trend is for gov’t to bastardize absolutely everything that meets their gaze. Everyone in gov’t is a self centered scumbag and is why everything is falling apart, finally.
Truth be told, people have money for electronic gadgets, and relatively high priced processed food and shun the vegetable isle because they’re too stupid to identify many of the offerings. People are lazy and willing to delude themselves and poison their kids for convenience. Money is not the major problem when food stamps are used to buy Twinkies and Coke.
Welcome to the incredible burger at bugger king. It only takes 20+ various chemicals to make it taste like beef. Not only that but now the establishment has cracked the wheat genome. Now we have to find a workaround for our flour.
Not to mention all the drugs used to limit at least the manifestations of disease in the animals so that they can be slaughtered and make a profit.
There should be no such thing as a ‘feed lot’. There should be cattle spreads, dairy farms, chicken lots and all manner of much smaller farms that produce real food with reasonable care for the animals involved.
All the chemical laboratory crap clogging the supermarket aisles should go away. All the artificial this, that and the other and chemicals with names too long to pronounce should be absolutely outlawed for consumption by man or beast, including pets.
>>>Everyone in gov’t is a self centered scumbag…
Almost always correct (and I’ve worked for several governments, USA and non-USA).
It’s especially true for those government hirelings who claim that they’re NOT self-centered scumbags. “I spent my career in the EPA, to save the polar bears and whales!” is about as absurd as “I was a wet-boy for the CIA, to defend American values!”
Old people (it’s mostly the old who die of flu) have to die from something. They used to call pneumonia the old man’s friend, ffs!!
I think we just weren’t as good at tracking and treating and expecting recoveries in the past. There’s the false sense that if you can track something, you can control it.
so much for buying silver during the bottom. suppliers are already showing “Out of Stock” on volume packages.
What was that ratio, again, about paper claims for available ounces of silver?
Think it was near 100:1.
When buyers demand physical possession delivery, those short sellers might start scrambling, and in turn become panic buyers to fill contracts…hmmm.
But nobody will be willing to part with any physical they have.
Then watch what happens to spot prices, and Ask bids.
As Mel told the brave hearted kilts, as the Anglish charged…”Hold…hold…hold…”
But, the point is moot, if the tradi g of metals is banned.
TPTB can’t have anybody gaining wealth during the meltdown now, can they?
“The market was ready for the crash. … It would have been whatever. The markets were going down.” Just like September 11, 2001.
If 34,ooo persons make up five per cent of the US population, then the US inhabited by six million, eight hundred thousand! The way it’s written makes it sound that way. Sure, the 16.5 MM who went to the doc for the flu, yeas, that’s five per cent, but… An inauspicious beginning to the essay.
Mr. A. is a dreadful writer, but a complete dummy he ain’t. I say that because I agree with him on this one, heh heh. Next time out, however, cash may have become meaningless.
Coronavirus® is a hoax. The madness (global in scope) precipitated by the coordinated propaganda is a controlled demolition, sort of like a geopolitical neutron bomb. The goal is to destroy the existing monetary system (or systems, if you do not think that every currency is globally managed) so that the people (or the rubes, as I like to think of us) will INSIST that the new system (safer and more predictable than the old one) be implemented immediately. SDR, Bitcoin, something they think they can use to steal everything, and make it impossible to undo.
So if you are holding a lot of cash, real paper dollars, rest assured that you will be able to redeem them for the new currency. Some of it anyhow. After you demonstrate that you paid taxes on it. Nomesain? Yep, I am sure that Uncle Sam’s minions at the banks (more bailouts for them) will treat you right.
You goldbugs? Silver collectors? You will get the chance to join the New Deal as well. Just bring that bullion in and we will be sure to credit your account. Trust us. Just don’t try to trade your bullion privately, that will be strictly illegal. As will be unauthorized transport or export. No possession, either. FDR got that ball rolling in 1933, and that ball is still round.
So don’t worry about getting sick, you probably won’t. You are just not going to have all the money you thought you had. You won’t have to waste your time voting, and you will have fewer difficult choices to make in the retail environment. If you do get sick, you will feel a little shitty than be back to normal. If you are old and sick already, you gotta die of something, right?
Things are changing quick. It is possible that the Coronavirus™ hoax is a livefire drill, and it will end without the implementation of the official new globalist world order. If it turns out to be an expensive drill, remember that the real one may be next, and soon. It is also possible (I think certain, but may be wrong)that the globalist powers-that-be are ready to make the big move they have been planning for. And if it is the real deal, right now, look for opportunities, and don’t be a dick about it.
While everyone is entitled to an opinion, posting your opinion as if it is fact when it is based upon nothing but your opinion is misleading to the people reading it. A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, especially when it leads you to the wrong conclusions. What is happening is not a hoax, and spreading opinions it is as if they are fact is only making a bad situation worse, as you said, don’t be a dick.
” Are they spreading this information hoping to illegally benefit from creating fake of exaggerated reports? In equities, that is jail time under the SEC. ”
If Elon Musk read that I’m sure he’d spit his favorite beverage all over his computer laughing.
Do not take this pandemic lightly, this is a serious virus and has potential to kill many more people than most people realize.
When it comes to the economic side of whats happening, we are most probably going to experience deflation, and it will be the first time for many people. Our normalcy bias makes us believe that because inflation is all we have seen for decades, that it is the only reality. That reality is about to get blown up. Deflation occurs when large amounts of money is destroyed.
Since we have a credit based economy, the default of debt is the same thing as the destruction of money. Much of the money in the system only exists as debt in digital form. When that debt is defaulted on, that money simply disappears from the system. The shutting down of the entire world economy is something unique in history and will undoubtedly cause the default of huge amounts of debt.
The practical result of this is that money begins to increase in demand in relation to assets. As the economy deteriorates, assets have to be sold to raise cash. No assets are immune from this. Equities, Bonds, Gold, silver , bitcoin, real estate, and every other asset will sold by people needing to raise cash.
The selling of these assets cause the value of these assets to fall as sellers outnumber buyers. The falling value of assets itself causes a feedback loop necessitating more selling of assets. The last time this happened on a large scale was 1929 and devastated the value of all assets.