To the preseasonal — you who saw today’s situation coming from a long ways off

Guest Post by Steve N.

The Burning Platform, led by the inestimable Admin, supported by a handful of very independent and thoughtful contributors, and a legion of hopeful readers, is an admirable collection of what the authors of The Fourth Turning called the “preseasonal”, those who have learned lessons from the past and can see in advance signs of what the future holds.

William Strauss and Neil Howe, wrote their first book, Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069 in 1991, and showed us that they had stumbled across a repetitive cycle in American history. In 1997, they published The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy — What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny” where they further described the cycle, its four seasons or “turnings” nature, its approximate length of 80 years and a whole lot to think about, especially their predictions for the future based on the lessons from the past. It’s a book that Mark Twain would have likely enjoyed a good deal; he who quipped, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

Jim Quinn has studied and pondered the authors’ books and written more about them than any other person (says Google search). He is frequently criticized for this emphasis, and tries to mix in supporting cast, but the power of Strauss-Howe generational theory always wins the day, as it should in my mind. If you haven’t studied it, I invite you to get T4T and read it slowly and carefully, especially since we seem to be rapidly approaching the darkest and coldest days of the winter season, the Climax of the Crisis they call it.

Being “preseasonal” — seeing ‘it’ coming (and it actually coming) — is a good thing per the authors:

“Preseasonality is as functional as postseasonality is dysfunctional. We admire preseasonal purpose when we see it in people. Indeed, America’s best-remembered presidents displayed this in deed or oratory before they were elected. The Crisis-era steadfastness of Washington and Eisenhower foreshadowed the coming Highs, making both generals enormously popular choices for presiding over those eras. (p. 308)”

I think that for many of us, the person of our time that comes to mind when we think of the virtue of “preseasonal purpose” is Ron Paul and his bids to be our president. Hopefully, there will be some leaders soon who show us their sense of the briskness of this season yet are steadfast in hope for balmier days. We’ll need them for our elections later this decade.

I’ve read and continue reading a lot of books, with a keen interest in the work of authors and researchers that have tried to be prescient about the times we are in, but none compare to T4T. There is literally a grandma’s feather bed full of fluff out there (and I’m just talking the non-fiction, historical, political tomes), so I can’t help but hold out a T4T copy to family, friends and acquaintances and channel Vince Lombardi’s “this is a football” fundamental, trying to impress upon them how valuable the book could be in helping them be at peace and value in a tumultuous world. So I put myself up for criticism too; no regrets in the decade I’ve been doing it.

As I read the pages of T4T, I see their deep thinking about the past and its application to our future, and I sense Strauss and Howe’s yearning to help Americans of the late Unraveling when their book first reached bookshelves, their exertions to help us prepare for our “rendezvous with destiny”. They wrote:

“We cannot stop the seasons of history, but we can prepare for them. Right now, in 1997, we have eight, ten, perhaps a dozen more years to get ready. Then events will begin to take choices out of our hands. Yes, winter is coming, but our path through that winter is up to us. (p. 7)”

Preseasonal was the book in 1997, even trying to front run that problem with a brave subtitle of “An American Prophecy”, but it pretty much got only a yawn from the book business. Had the meme had existed back in the late ’90s, “OK, boomer” could have been the critics’ perfect spurn to the writers.

In addition to words to the wise post 1997, Strauss and Howe give example after example of how people acted and talked during all four turnings or seasons in past cycles. They, subjectively of course, but with the skill of learned students of history that they are, connect dots and reveal patterns that seem balanced and true. Some examples:

T4T points out this about political approaches: “Nearly every static ideology is likely to advance … when what it offers is preseasonal and useful and retreat … when what it offers is postseasonal and harmful.”

“… public-sector liberalism emerged in the last Crisis, rose in the High, crested in the Awakening, and is falling out of favor in the Unraveling.” (imputing that it is emerging in our Crisis)

“Interest-group pluralism and free-market libertarianism follow yet a different pattern. Since both of these -isms exalt rights over duties, they crested in the last Unraveling (1920s), fell out of favor in the last Crisis (1930s) [and during our current Crisis], reemerged in the High (1950s), rose in the Awakening (1970s), and are cresting again in the current Unraveling (1990s). (p. 310)”

Since “The Long Emergency”, as James Howard Kunstler calls it, the Crisis that began early this century, Strauss and Howe posited that our interpersonal behaviors would go from ignored to rediscovered and that our social priorities, in a media and political sense, would change from maximum individualism to rising community. And naturally, our families and governments would go from weak to strengthening. The Crisis, and much more so as the Climax endgame approaches, brings a big shift — from emphasis on the rights of the individual to the duties the individual has to the group.

But among the preseasonal, those who saw this storm brewing for decades, we hear many predicting that the coronavirus pandemic is going to be the end of central control, the end of the so called new world order, the demise of central banking, etc. It seems that those who are not happy with the status quo and want to go back to some time in the past, but that happening is about as likely as the ball falling into their number on the roulette wheel. History doesn’t seem to support that turmoil begets more choices and more freedom. The record is the opposite; in dark days, people even seek out “the choice not to be burdened by choice. (p. 276)”

“Expect a loss of personal privacy. Fourth Turnings can be dark times for the free spirit: Just as one kind of official may have new authority to do something for you, another kind—some hastily deputized magistrate—may have new authority to do something to you. (p. 312)”

So what flavor of group-think will this Crisis catalyze into? The pandemic and panic has brought our political leaders and media ever more into our lives. T4T has this to say about our media during crises: “The less self-control the media or public exercises now, the more likely it becomes that some outside authority will impose a despotic control tomorrow. (p. 312)” The media editor’s creed of “if it bleeds, it leads” could very well lead to a lot more damage, it seems.

Jim Quinn gave us a great post three weeks back, NOTHING TO FEAR BUT FEAR ITSELF, writing about two big grabs for control of our lives, by our governments during the Great Depression and now at the final arrival of what could be the worst of them all. In these few weeks, the onslaught of media influence has been so powerful that a great deal of our neighbors have fallen off the emotional ledge, tripped over the little lip that separates ration from madness. They have fallen into the cauldron of chaos where all bad beliefs and believers end up. The masses have succumbed to the latest all-in media effort to win control over the minds of millions, no billions. Our media seeks to create fear via not completely genuine news, revisionist history (think Nineteen Eighty-Four Ministry of Truth rewrites in Newspeak), even touting made-up principles but offering no historical proof of concept.

Here’s a short list of some of the things my deep state government and the hip-pocket mainstream media have told me that I should be afraid of, very afraid:

• Weapons of mass destruction everywhere (Says the black pot.)
• Climate change cataclysm (But the data goes hot and cold on you, doesn’t it?)
• “Traitors” like Julian Assange, Edward Snowden and Bradley/Chelsea Manning (Aren’t they just leakers of ugly truths?)
• Russian government interference in US government elections (Isn’t the accuser the CIA? Hah! That’s a good one!)
• Now Russian anything (Even the girls?)
• The 2016 pre-election dossier on Trump (Hey FBI, you’ve fallen and hurt yourself badly so please get up and honor your oath of office!)
• Now Trump anything (Click goes the off button.)
• Tariffs are bad and will ruin everything (Bad for the goose but not the gander?)
• We will save you all from (insert threat), but we will have to destroy your livelihood and quality of life (Say the phantom menaces, the siths in public servant’s cloaks)
• But, if nothing else, we’ve got to stop ‘triggering’ others with our opinions (Should I stop writing now?)

It seems that the most of the fearmongering that dominates the media and politics have turned out to be so weak in factual support that they have made Chicken Little look to be of sound mind and have a pretty good story to tell. And where is the coverage of the real threats like these:

• How the US has treated and continues to treat so many countries so badly that our enemies now far outnumber our friends
• How corrupt our money systems are
• How higher education has lost its moorings and foundation education isn’t doing so hot, either.
• How poorly we treat our fallen people: the high rates of incarceration, the slow and uncaring “justice” system.
• And what in the hell happened to our Constitution and the rule of law?

So media believers everywhere, just you keep up the fake fearfulness and avoid joining in solving our real and pressing problems and coming out of this mess as best we all can; Working on fixing the ugly realities we face would just scare all that fake fright right out of you.

And what about our two major political parties? Strauss and Howe, 23 years ago, said this:

“Suppose both parties continue down their linear paths through what remains of the Unraveling [1998 to 2005ish]. If so, Democrats will remain usefully linked with civic authority, but in a paradigm so oriented around a harvest mentality that it precludes any across-the-board sacrifice for a significant public purpose. Picture them in charge when the Crisis catalyzes and an urgent need arises to shatter old consumption promises and ask voters to give up something. They would seem to be exactly the wrong party to command an imperiled citizenry. (p. 311)” Yet the popularity of Bernie and AOC rises among Democrats.

“Alternatively, suppose Republicans keep to course, still usefully linked with sacrifice but in a paradigm so beset with individualism as to preclude effective civic mobilization for any purpose. Picture Republicans in charge when a sudden Crisis prompts an urgent need for rejuvenated public authority to achieve a new national purpose. If this happens, they would seem to be exactly the wrong party to command a strengthening government. (p. 312)”

I see shades of this Republicans not adapting problem in Trump’s actions during the rise of this panic; he first emphasized personal responsibility and was reluctant to increase the police state, much to the dismay of the deep-staters and his political handlers.

“Come the Fourth Turning, America will need both personal sacrifice and public authority. The saeculum will favor whichever party moves more quickly and persuasively toward a paradigm that accommodates both. Both parties should lend seasonality to their thinking: Democrats a concept of civic duty that limits the harvest, Republicans a concept of civic authority that limits the scattering. If they do not, the opportunity will arise for a third party to fill the void—after which one or both of today’s two dominant parties could go the way of the Whigs. (p. 312)” We can only hope for a better choice.

And interfering with the natural reaction to dark times — to change, to sacrifice, to band together — is the “deficits don’t matter” pure garbage pact of the “money from nothing” central banks everywhere.

Individually, we need to understand the lessons of the past so that we can work together . T4T offers:
“If civic virtue is so frequently lost, it must be just as frequently regained. This is what happens in a Fourth Turning. While a Crisis mood renders societies newly desperate, it also renders them newly capable, which is why a saecular winter is to be welcomed as much as feared. As today’s Americans look ahead, the challenge dis to marshal the coming season’s new public energies to achieve positive, not destructive ends. The better we ready ourselves collectively, the more likely we will be not just to survive the Crisis but to apply its fury for good and humane purposes. (p. 312)”

And what about morals of behavior and cultural norms? What from the past will be valued and what will be discarded? T4T offers:
“America’s culture warriors need not worry whether values will return to public life. They always do in a Fourth Turning—with a vengeance. Speeches will become public sermons; schools, civic churches; and art, motivational propaganda. The open questions are which values will reign and whether America’s cultural consensus will be broad and imaginative enough to avoid a destructive polarization as the nation fights for its survival. People on all sides of the Culture Wars should cultivate pragmatic alliances with niches possessing competing visions. Americans of all generations should work to elevate moral and cultural standards. What we do now may not close down many Unraveling-era carnivals, but will serve two critical longer-term purposes: to help protect the world of childhood and to help resacralize public institutions and reinfuse them with a much-needed sense of public purpose. (p. 313)”

But they offer this curt warning: “A decadent or nihilistic culture is a seedbed for fascism. (p. 313)” I hope we have not descended too far as a society to have the character to rise up to the challenges of the Crisis Climax.

I see the descent into Crisis as being an especially hard pill to swallow for the Prophet archetype in T4T terminology— the Boomer generation who came of age in the summer season of the cycle, the Awakening, and who had the blessing and curse of seeing the best of times in their formative first decades and the comparative worst of times since. They had impressed lightly upon them the great struggles their grandparents and parents faced during the prior winter/Crisis — the Great Depression and World War II. Plus, they see their children and grandchildren at the head of the family pack, hurtling headlong towards the next ekpyrosis. They want to protect and warn about the dangers they see, but much of their previous actions and words has sullied elder respect: “Wincing at their own coming-of-age behavior, Boomers have become what the New York Times has dubbed a ‘Do As I Say, Not As I Did’ generation of parents. (p. 246)”

Strauss and Howe tell us quite plainly, both with hope and trepidation, what the future will be:
“By the 2020s, America could become a society that is good, by today’s standards, and also one that works. Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse—or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.”

“History’s howling storms can bring out the worst and best in a society. The next Fourth Turning could literally destroy us as a nation and people, leaving us cursed in the histories of those who endure and remember. Alternatively, it could ennoble our lives, elevate us as a community, and inspire acts of consummate heroism—deeds that will grow into mythlike legends recited by our heirs far into the future.

“How can we offer this prophecy with such confidence? Because it’s all happened before.

“Many times. (p. 7)”

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