Infamous for his massive (winning) “big short” bet against mortgage securities before the 2008 financial crisis, Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-hedge-fund-manager has been on a multi-day Twitter rant claiming that the lockdowns intended to contain the COVID-19 pandemic are worse than the disease itself.
Echoing the thoughts of many, Burry opined in a series of tweets over the past two weeks that the government-enforced lockdowns and business shutdowns across America may trigger one of the country’s deepest-ever economic contractions, and further still, are not necessary to contain the epidemic (on March 22nd).
COVID-19 policy cannot be settled by CYA politicians career ID docs. Too much hammer/nail and too little common sense.
POTUS must reflect the interests of the working class and small business here – the economy cannot crash 30% to save the 0.2%.
Set America Free!
If COVID-19 testing were universal, the fatality rate would be less than 0.2%.
This is no justication for sweeping government policies, lacking any and all nuance, that destroy the lives, jobs, and businesses of the other 99.8%.
Furthermore, Burry – who earned his M.D. at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine – has also dared to say that some controversial treatments for COVID-19, such as the malaria drug hydroxycloroquine, should be made more widely available (on March 24).
Prudent plan:
1) Standardize on chloroquine and azithromycin -cheap and available
2) Sick and elderly voluntarily shelter in place.
3) Americans lead their normal lives with extra hand washing and special care if around elderly.
Saving the economy means life, not murder.
Additionally, in an email to Bloomberg News, Burry wrote that “universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history… And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide.“
Additionally, as Bloomberg’s Reed Stevenson reports, Burry responded to questions via email to offer more thoughts on the pandemic and the response to the outbreak…
How the Pandemic Happened
“This is a new form of coronavirus that emanated from a country, China, that unfortunately covered it up. That was the original sin. It transmits very easily, and within the first month it was likely all over the world. Very poor testing infrastructure created an information vacuum as cases ramped, ventilator shortages were projected. Politicians panicked and media filled the space with their own ignorance and greed. It was a toxic mix that led to the shutdown of the U.S., and hence much of the world economy.”
“In hindsight, each country should have immediately ramped up rapid field testing of at-risk groups. But as I understand it, the CDC was tasked with some of this, and botched it, and other departments were no better. The bureaucracy failed in a good number of countries. Turf wars and incompetence has ruled the day. So the political cover for that failure on the part of the technocrats and politicians is a very harsh stay-at-home policy.”
The U.S. Policy Response
“If there was ever a time for the government to stimulate with fiscal and monetary policy, it is now. Unfortunately, the U.S. has been adding $3 for every $1 of new GDP over a very long time, and interest rates were already near zero. Still, nothing is more important now that loans to small and mid-sized businesses, and the U.S. Treasury, backed by the Fed, is providing that liquidity, which is vital.”
Potential Treatments
“It’s pretty clear that hydrochloroquine is doing something good for many Covid-19 patients. The standard in medicine is a placebo-controlled double-blind study. But there is no time for that. The technocrats at the top are getting this wrong. Do the studies, make the vaccines, but allow doctors to have what they feel is working now. Don’t take tools or drugs out of the treating doctors’ hands. Trump should use the Defense Production Act more liberally in this area.”
“A more nuanced approach would be for at risk groups — the obese, old and already-sick — to shelter in place, to execute widespread mandatory testing, and to ID and track as necessary while allowing society to function. Again, Trump should get the massive contract manufacturers like Flextronics to make testing machines.”
Getting Back to Normal
“I would lift stay-at-home orders except for known risk groups. We already know certain conditions that are predictive of severe disease. Especially since young healthy lungs tend to be resistant, I would let the virus circulate in the population that is not likely to get severe disease from it. This is the only path that comes close to balancing the needs of all groups. Vaccines are not coming anytime soon, so natural immunity is the only way out for now. Every day, every week in the current situation is ruining innumerable lives in a criminally unjust manner.”
“When it comes to vaccines, coronaviruses are not known for imparting enduring immunity, and this will be one big challenge. It seems the genetic code is relatively conserved, and this will help the development of the vaccine. But we’re still looking at the end of the year. In the meantime, the world is an innovative place, and I expect many effective treatments — both new and repurposed — shortly. The question then will be regulation, expense and availability.”
“Medically, the new normal will be the old normal. As long as innovation continues, medicine will conquer everything in our way.”
Japan’s Response
“I believe Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying his best to manage through the situation without shuttering the economy. He sees what it has done to the U.S., and would rather not force a shut in, but instead asks for common sense. Japan has certain features — such as a largely lawful and well-educated society — that make this more possible. As do Taiwan, Singapore, Korea.”
Business Recovery
“Economically speaking, we have to realize the policy-driven demand shock will be resolved by 2021. But Japan and the U.S. are putting more than 20% of the GDP into new fiscal stimulus, and easy money will be the rule. Those things will all bring stock and debt markets back.”
“Countries will also look to bring supply chains home, and many employees will need retraining with higher cost. When we start working and playing again, inflation may be in store. The other big point is that consumers have learned new behaviors, which will drive business churn.”
Finally, on the investment side, Burry told Bloomberg News last month that he placed a “significant bearish market bet that is working out for now,” without providing details except to say it was a trade of a “good size” against indexes. He said the pandemic could unwind the passive investment boom, which he has compared to purchases of collateralized debt obligations that fueled the pre-2008 mortgage bubble.
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Weird
What’s weird?
The djia goes up by 1,000 every day but the end is nigh?
Donkey.
Algorithm and other program trading. It takes on a life of it’s own driven by futures options(Derivatives) where you aren’t obligated to buy the actual asset but have the option to buy it. A cheap way to get 1,000 to 1 leverage cheaply.
This mkt is a traders dream. High frequency traders and hedge funds using options and derivatives can erupt to the downside because the usa treasury is buyer of last resort as stated by the fed ….more sellers than buyers with traders interrupting…
The futures market is rigged the same way gold spot is . It’s one big short squeeze on the stock market today as in other days.
In a just universe guys like CNBC’s Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow would spend life in jail but they’re given publicity and authority.
Sad.
Thanks to admin for mirroring this on TBP from ZH.
Burry just summarized everything I (and many here) have been saying for weeks. We’ll look back on this episode as the biggest over-reaction of all time.
What is the “spider” is an egg-laying Communist terrorist?
Napalm the whole fucking village, twice.
The above message seems ghostwritten by a Euro feminist, not a God-fearing American. Burning out deep-rooted Communists is a thankless job that Europeans and other defeatists have no stomach for.
These guys just don’t get it. Nobody, absolutely nobody wants this shutdown. The “establishment” has more to lose from this shutdown than anybody. The implications of this shutdown economically are huge. Corporations, local and even national governments are going to be severely damaged by this shutdown and the depression which is almost certain to happen afterwards. Before this is over, we will see municipal, state, and even national bankruptcies. Governments will have to reduce their size and scope, and finally have to admit they are not capable of doing the things they promised they could do.
It is going to set the globalists back and may very well end it completely as nationalism becomes the world theme.
The world was in serious economic trouble before this virus began, and this situation now is the worst case scenario.
The only reason the governments are enacting these shutdowns is that the alternative is to allow the virus to spread at a pace which would overwhelm every system we have in place. While they cannot stop the spread, it is vital that they slow it so that social order does not break down entirely. I do not think people really realize that at the point where hospitals become overwhelmed, and people begin to panic, that the entire social order will break down. Hording turns to looting, and gangs begin to form. There is a fine line between a controlled crisis, and complete social breakdown.
Complete and utter bullshit. Are you a deep state lackey. 90% of the hospitals in the country are fucking empty. The fucking models have been wrong by a measure of 500%. There are a few hot zones in urban areas. Michael Burry explains exactly what should have been done.
This isn’t hurting mega-corps in the least. The Fed and their friends in DC have funneled 90% of the money to them, with a pittance to small businesses and the people. The globalists love this fucking virus. Increased central control over everything and everyone.
Your time on this site is growing short, you fucking douchebag.
Burrey and Administrator are fucking right. And, let us not forget just how effing stupid and self-serving these government rats are. AND, have you noticed that all the layoffs and ‘furloughs’ are in the private sector? Believe you me, governments at every level are not laying off anyone. Nooooo. Public schools are shuttered, but teachers and administrators are getting their full salary and benefit package. All of them everywhere are getting their salaries and their benefits. Of course they are missing their nice eateries and so forth. Noooooo. It is us, the Forgotten, who are suffering.
Look folks, the government is run by the Democratic Party. They are the Deep State. The vast majority of public employees are Democrats. If millions of public employees had been laid off, this would be over right now. Immediately.
Now. about effing Stupid? These same effing government rats cannot add and subtract, folks.
They do not understand that when they destroy the ‘Forgotten,’ they destroy tax receipts they get from us and live on themselves. Except for a few lonely bean counters, they really do not get it. They never have. I live in Washington State, home of effing stupid Gov. Jay Inslee. Last week, poor dumb Inslee had to line item veto out some new programs that Democrats in our Legislature had passed earlier this year. That was the first time in utter ages that the damned effing state government had to give up anything it and its minions wanted. It will not be the last, but it will not occur to most of these effing bureaucrats that what they have done to destroy the ‘Forgotten’ may come back to bite them.
We shall see. I think they will immediately raise taxes, but the money will not arrive.
Ammo up, folks. I wish I had better news.
Your comment is bewildering.
You seem to understand Democrats are the enemy, but libertarians by and large, have no real answers, except more Ron Paul-style bellyaching.
The fucking evil civil and worthlessly corrupt-criminal State Courts and the entire Democrat dominated, *State-level* U.S. legal system is on PARALYZED, pissing its pants, and essentially closed or moving at a snails pace. All hives of Blue state Communist lawyers and legal overreach and legal trends across America are PARALYZED. The DOJ has never been in a better position to enforce existing Federal laws.
This alone is worth ANY PRICE, including national lockdown into next year!
Why are Libertarians and supposed freedom lovers not thrilled and dancing in the streets firing their AR-15s and AKs into the sky?
The country won’t even need any more actors after Trumps second term. See you all in November (2024).
I’ve never encountered someone more full of it on more topics than j-bird. I think Yoji is right about him being some kind of bot or he works for Cramer on CNBC.
Steve Liesman was rumored to anonymize himself as a ZH poster.
Don’t put anything past a liar.
Between the WHO and the CDC, the levels of gross incompetance, corruption and greed are off the charts. Had they done their jobs correctly none of this shutdown would have been necessary. Borders were kept wide open, air travel continued unabated and those vermin in charge were either telling outright lies or flip flopping from one day to the next.
The irony here is so thick a spatula is needed to scrape it off. We have Micheal Burry, the man who called the 08′ financial collapse schooling the hack politicians and ‘medical experts’ for destroying a country, much less an economy. The two Trillion relief bill did nothing except pad the pockets of the ‘too big to fail’ while not even giving a cursory nod to the schnooks aka: citizens. They fucked us over and are continuing to fuck us over and won’t quit until there isn’t a strand of sinew on the carcass.
Go back to sleep pawn. I’m sure you’re looking forward to dying on your knees, while starving at home.
“Governments will have to reduce their size and scope”
of course. but (assuming conspiracy) what if their goal is to shrink “us” more than they shrink “themselves”?
Yeah Jdog, i must disagree With you here Bro. Why are we shuddering only private biz and not laying off govt employees? While .20% are at risk we must accept 30% unemployment? Why dont we just allow the .20% to sElf quarantine?
We need more like him to stand up to these scum-sucking control freaks. #Dr.Fauciisajewishcunt
“beats and terrorizes women and children”
(laugh)
By God, when Burry speaks, I listen.
I don’t give a crap what else is going on
You’ll notice he has once again bet against chosen “indexes”
That he would just now pontificate on the right and proper things to do economically, fiscally, and politically, plus his indignant toned analysis of (mostly failed) medical protocols based on his physician credentials well after the onslaught of both the CoVid-19 pandemic and the demonic halt to normal societal life as a result of Government edicts, is the sign of an Ivory Tower coddled and spoiled narcissist.
Another Wall Street scumbag hedge fund manager who is just a small tool of the Evil Fuckers and part of the problem he helped create and perpetuate: Hyper-Finance Crony Kapitalism.
It just ain’t fair
This part sounds like master’s voice to me: “to execute widespread mandatory testing”. I know how unpopular this will be, but I think the absolute best response would be for the government to do absofuckinlutely nothing. The population would have been strengthened, certainly in a world of SARS-CoV-2, and in lesser ways otherwise. Savers would have been rewarded and non-savers penalized (though that’s not fair for many who can’t save for the System being what it is). Mother nature is a killer, but there is no other way to population strength than the organic process with individual judgements day by day.
Wonder how his former picks of Greensky, Tailored Brands, and Cleveland Cliffs are doing? Down 59%…