Guest Post by Trader Garrett
Introduction
In my view, this virus thing is way overdone and is a probable smokescreen for something quite different and unexpected.
In addition, I could not figure out why the plunge protection team (PPT) was not riding to the rescue in this market crash sequence.
Now I understand why.
The Background
As someone said, “The CDC estimated that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season in the U.S. No less than 647,000 people were hospitalized. And 61,200 died. Moreover, the CDC estimates that more than 23,000 people DIED of the flu during this past season”. (see chart and documentation below)
But where was the mass panic? Where was the stock market crash? Where was the hysteria?”
The Corona virus is nowhere close to these figures. China and S. Korea’s infection rate, as examples, are now declining. Why then the stock market crash?
Yelling “fire” in a crowded theater is not the right thing to do.
Obviously, the PTB’s reaction to this so-called virus “pandemic” is an out-of-proportion response to reality. Even gold got plastered. Can’t have a canary in this mine, now can we.
Why?
The Setup
1) Create a panic narrative in all markets because of a virus of little real(?) consequence compared to other contagious health issue results.
2) Close down events, schools, businesses etc, creating financial hardships for many in order to “contain” it.
3) To “stabilize” things, the Fed drastically reduces interest rates, buys treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Next, the Treasury Dept will possibly throw out some cash donations in the next two weeks to all adult US citizens. Got to take care of and calm the peasants first before the real story unfolds!
Why?
The Smokescreen
As a smokescreen for an existing viral bank and worldwide financial debt issue which started last September (way before the “pandemic”) in the repo market when overnight rates suddenly hit 10%. Obviously, there was a liquidity issue somewhere.
Since then, the Fed has been “managing” short term interest rates downward, buying treasuries etc, to calm everyone’s fears.
I have been following Deutsche Bank (Germany) for some time but should have been following the broader Bank Index which has lost nearly 45% of its value in 3 weeks.
Fire In the Hole
No one wants to bail out banks since the 2008 debacle so you do all these other “nice” things first. When that does not succeed, yell fire and blame it all on the corona virus. Then demand that Congress authorize the Fed to put out the financial fire by bailing out banks, buying stocks, etc, which it can’t do right now (directly) under existing Dodd-Frank rules. Hmmm…
As some politician said, “never let a crisis go to waste”.
Conclusion
The virus is NOT the issue here since it’s no worse in total case results than the winter flu season. It was merely a catalyst for a critical crash of confidence in the financial system. This provided a convenient smokescreen for more financial shenanigans while the real story gets buried.
A future currency reset of some kind is likely (including possible SDR use from the IMF) or a “refinancing” of various debts, but the timing and details are unknown.
Severe declines in real money often present real opportunities. This is one of them. As previously noted, am a buyer on any $100-$200 gold price decline from the last high for preservation, protection and profit. Stocks require a new daily trend to consider reentry.
“Let us return to the freedoms the constitution guaranteed us, the history of gold which financially guide us and the genius of common sense”. ~TG
Trader Garrett 3/17/20
Related:
Day of Reckoning
The Road to Perdition is Paved…
Caveat: Could be dead wrong on the above points but really don’t think so. Seen this routine before.
Additional Documentation
This 3/17/20 article and its links (in the side column) provides independent background supporting evidence before next logical steps to maintain “confidence in the system” occur.
3/27/20 Fed Powers Update
3/27/20 Overblown Press Hysteria
3/27/20 Comparison Chart Below
For comparison with other incidents, the fatality/mortality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.
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It’s Black and White: CV-19 kills at 25X the flu rate; you wanna play Russian Roulette with a real gun and bullets? The fiat money gorged unsustainable Urban Jungle Rip-off Centers were going to implode from some Black Swan, CV-19 tipped a domino and TPTB rolled out plan B. God didn’t create CV-19; Evil People created it and aided it’s spread but wealthy hapless people carried it across wide open borders. Looks like a vote for Uncle Joe and Democrats is for Communism flooding in the front and back door and a vote for Trump would be for the NWO slipping in the back door. I’m still expecting a Spanish Communist type take-over, and Civil War but Trump’s not an American Franco, George Washington or Andrew Jackson.
While ur at it, insist we need 350 million Covid-19 test kits so we can insist on testing every peasant, thereby getting the DNA swab from all 350 million into a national database…. Naturally we’ll patent that so Bill Gates can “own” it…..
Based on the data in the table above, we must:
Ban alcohol, swimming, smoking, and driving right now, and shut down society until we get these killer diseases under control! Lives are at stake, people, so let’s get, um, stopping.
When comparing flu numbers to COVID numbers, one important factor is always left out. Social distancing & staying home. If those measures had been implemented for the flu…how would that change the numbers?
Not saying I agree with how COVID is handled, but are we comparing apples to apples when one set of numbers had extreme mitigation policies applied and the other set of numbers did not. Just a thought.
I get that, I do…. but the oddest part is that the deaths did not blow-up UNTIL we locked it all down. I am not convinced the lock downs have done much at all. Also, sounds to me like the medical centers (Hospitals and Assisted Living Facilities) spread this around more than anything else. Seems most folks who get it and die were already in the care of some form of medical caretaker. In TX a report yesterday said a full third of all the deaths in TX were in assisted living facilities. The last place I would go right now even if deathly ill would be near the medical community (no offense to any med folks out there)….
I blame the government and the banks.
The COVID knee-jerk overreaction was diversionary cover to prevent an impending crisis of confidence in financial markets. It was done to provide breathing room and cover for bankruptcies that would’ve caused major layoffs anyway.
Worse is coming.