It was almost exactly ten years ago that we first predicted that the Fed’s “moronic” QE which has sparked an unprecedented class, income and wealth divide, “positions US society one step closer to civil war if not worse.” This prompted Time magazine to mock our forecast, although we doubt the author, currently at Bloomberg where pretty much every financial op-ed writer eventually ends up, is laughing today after an almost identical assessment of the current situation, if ten years delayed, was published by a far more “respected” by the likes of Time commentator, Ray Dalio.
In the latest installment of his ongoing series on the changing world order published on his LinkedIn page, Dalio finally turned to ground zero in what will be the conflict of the 21st century – class and power struggles – and mused if the U.S. is at a tipping point that could move it from what he says is “manageable” tension to a full-blown revolution.
“People and politicians are now at each other’s throats to a degree greater than at any time in my 71 years,” Dalio wrote noting that disorder is rising in a number of countries. “How the U.S. handles its disorder will have profound implications for Americans, others around the world, and most economies and markets.”
“It is in this stage when there are bad financial conditions and intensifying conflict,” wrote Dalio. “Classically this stage comes after periods of great excesses in spending and debt and the widening of wealth and political gaps and before there are revolutions and civil wars. United States is at a tipping point in which it could go from manageable internal tension to revolution and/or civil war.”
The founder of Bridgewater urged his readers to think about class issues that can become inflamed during stressful periods, as the struggle over wealth and power tends to be the “biggest thing affecting most people in most countries through time”, Bloomberg recapped.
“One timeless and universal truth that I saw went back as far as I studied history, since before Confucius around 500 BC, is that those societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because they find the best talent to do their jobs well, they have diversity of perspectives, and they are perceived as the most fair, which fosters social stability,” Dalio wrote.
We doubt that the pervasive cancel cultures that permeates US society today, or the ubiquitous central planning by the Federal Reserve coupled with manipulated central markets to promote a socialist agenda and to allocated capital and talent as the government sees fit, in the process bypassing capitalism, will allow US society to every again claim to be fair or merit-based.
Below are some of the key quotes from Dalio’s essay:
- “How people are with each other is the primary driver of the outcomes they get.”
- “The United States is at a tipping point in which it could go from manageable internal tension to revolution and/or civil war.”
- “To be clear, I am not saying that the United States or other countries are inevitably headed that way; however, I am saying that now is an especially important time to know and watch the markers in order to understand the full range of possibilities for the period ahead.”
- “The lessons and warnings of history are clear if one looks for them, most people don’t look for them because most people learn from their experiences and a single lifetime is too short to give them those lessons and warnings that they need.”
- “I cannot overstate the importance of class struggles relative to individual struggles. We, especially those in the United States, which is a “melting pot,” tend to think more of individual struggles and not give adequate attention to class struggles. I didn’t fully realize its importance until I did my extensive study of history.”
- “While I love that the United States is the country where these class distinctions matter least, people’s classes still matter in the U.S. and they matter a lot more during stressful times when class conflicts intensify.”
- “When wars—civil or external—happen you will have to decide whether you want to be in them or get out of them. When in doubt get out. You can always get back in, but you might not be able to get out.”
- “You individually, and those who are leading, need to have a realistic understanding of the circumstances you are in, the range of possibilities that exist given these circumstances, and how to make decisions to produce the best possible outcomes given these circumstances.”
- “You also need to be very adaptable in order to do the things you might need to do that are outside your current range of possibilities.”
- “You can have a better future if you put deferred gratification ahead of immediate gratification”
His full essay “The Archetypical Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder“, can be found here.
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From the above article:
“The lessons and warnings of history are clear if one looks for them, most people don’t look for them because most people learn from their experiences and a single lifetime is too short to give them those lessons and warnings that they need.”
“It is better to arrest ten people by mistake than to let one guilty person go free.”
—Khmer Rouge slogan
That happened in the mid-seventies, and this mind set is still around.
“The United States is at a tipping point in which it could go from manageable internal tension to revolution and/or civil war.”
The ballot box, the jury box and the cartridge box. We’ve exhausted the first two –
Liberty’s Dreamers
Out of the bloody mists
Of time
Came the ghosts of Runnymede
Bearing a bold dream of
The rights of Man,
Landing on the shores of
A new world
Where they celebrated
The flight of
The magnificent bald eagle,
Symbol
Of a promising new republic
The hope of all mankind,
Now crucified on the cross
Of indifference
Whose insurrection
From an arrogant crown
Now belongs to the ages,
A noble remembrance
Of that fair meadow
Along the River Thames
Where freedom’s legacy
Was bequeathed
To future generations,
Patriots arise!
We are
The New Sons of Liberty,
And on this hallowed land
From sea to shining sea
Her original dreamers
Built an enlightened nation
With a shot
Heard round the world,
Her legacy once proud
Now hangs in the balance
Eclipsed by the illusion
Of total equality
For have we forgotten
That freedom
Has no equal?
Hark! Hark!
A dark winter approaches
As the burning embers
Of freedom
Lie smoldering
Beneath her darkened
Polling stations,
Yearning to be given
New life
To once again ignite
The brush fires
Of her soul,
As the mechanical
Forces of ignorance
Terrorize the land
With their masks of fear,
And the New Sons of liberty
Make their gallant
Last stand!
What will become of her?
Let Freedom’s Eagle
Take flight again
Carving gracefully through
The headwinds of tyranny,
After all
Who will save us
From our selves
And once again
The volatile
Fires of freedom attend?
As her tattered flag
Whipped by
The cruel winds of ignorance
Challenges us
To tip liberty’s tankards
Of Mr. Hare’s porter,
To rise up
And her broken heart mend,
As each day
We begin the fight anew
To harness
Those darker instincts
That have left us singing
The star spangled blues,
Will that proud Eagle
Soar again?
That story will be written
My dear friend
With the blood of me and you!
Did you compose this? It’s absolutely beautiful! Thanks for sharing.
…. “societies that draw on the widest range of people and give them responsibilities based on their merits rather than privileges are the most sustainably successful because they find the best talent to do their jobs well”…
First problem, US citizens do not elect the best and brightest, which leads to problem #2. These Intellectual Yet Idiot leaders only want power not results. What Mr. Dailo fails to say clearly, is 50% of our elected leaders, Academics, MSM, and Business Leaders ( see WEF / Davos crowd) openly dislike the 1/2 population. They call us names and threaten us with loss of jobs, tax policies, and violence from police and rioters.
IMHO he should be asking not If CW2 can happen, but when.
The biggest problem in the USA is a lack of knowledge of history. Universities are nothing but Marxist production facilities. Marxist need not learn of the past as it is too logical, history always rhymes with the past, hard lessons are always learned by ignoring it!
Bitter clinger, deplorable … rebel.
It’s just fine with me considering the alternatives of being godless, a liar, a fraud, or a sneakthief cheat.
For the alternatives list you could’ve just said “Democrats.”
Everything is about to get better. Congress can now get on with giving us all a free shit Covid relief package. I am torn between buying lead and silver.
Just bought more lead, wrapped in bronze. Paid dearly for it, now I have enough for ‘safety’ stock, will add if prices drop in the future, which I doubt.
It always runs in cycles. If the crisis passes you’ll see 5.56 at $300/1,000 again. What is important is to have it.
Big if….
Lead is good for the usual demonic minions, but only Silver Bullets will take-out their masters, the Democrats.
Bought feed today at my rural store and noticed the normal huge ammo shelves area looked like the toilet paper area of grocery stores (and he don’t sell cheap).