International Man: The economic, political, social, and cultural situation seems to have become increasingly volatile in the United States and more broadly in the West. Is this a unique situation or part of a recurring historical cycle?
Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe introduced a popular theory in their book, The Fourth Turning, outlining the recurring generational cycles that have occurred throughout American history.
What are your thoughts?
Doug Casey: I read Strauss and Howe’s first book, Generations, when it came out back in 1992. I thought it was brilliant.
Let me start off by recommending both Generations and The Fourth Turning to everybody. Both books offer quite a scholarly, readable, and prescient view of the cyclicality of history. And offer a very plausible forecast for the 2020s.
History’s best seen as cyclical, rather than a straight-line progress to some preordained end the way both the Marxists and the Abrahamic religions see it. But then, Ecclesiastes has its famous quote that there’s nothing new under the sun.
Plato in the Republic talks about how the younger generation—and we’re talking fourth century BC—can’t stand up to the moral values of their forefathers.
Older people have always thought that the younger generation wouldn’t quite measure up. In recent American history, you’ll recall, the younger generation were the beatniks in the ’50s, the hippies in the ’60s, and the yuppies in the ’80s—so it’s a passing parade. Older people have a tendency to think the world is going downhill. Nothing new there. But there’s always a rebirth.
Niccolò Machiavelli, in his Florentine Histories, said:
Virtue gives birth to tranquility, tranquility to leisure, leisure to disorder, disorder to ruin… and similarly from ruin, order is born, from order virtue, from virtue, glory and good fortune.
The bottom line is that societies arise from poverty through moral strength—and that brings them prosperity. But that prosperity brings on arrogance, and the arrogance brings on laziness, which brings on weakness and moral decline. Then they’re reduced to a condition of slavery and poverty again. Change is the only constant—except in human nature.
As I look at the United States, it seems to me the peak of American culture was the time just before Teddy Roosevelt came into office. Teddy is certainly among the top five worst presidents. And there’s plenty of competition for that title.
He was the first real “progressive” president; he wanted the government actively involved in all areas of life.
Now, that’s not to say that Teddy Roosevelt wouldn’t have been a really great drinking pal, a wonderful guy to go camping with, a fun guy to have an intellectual conversation with. He had a lot of admirable personal values. But he was a nationalist, a statist, and a warmonger. That’s why I say he was a horrible president.
The long-term trend of US overseas imperialism started with the Spanish–American War and the building of an overseas American empire in Cuba, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Hawaii—followed by World War I.
The US has gone from being noninterventionist to now having many hundreds of bases around the world and trying to give orders to every other country in the world. That kind of arrogance always ends badly.
As a civilization—a culture—the US has been on an accelerating path downhill for about 120 years now. That’s true even while science and technology have greatly increased the general standard of living. It’s a mistake to conflate a higher standard of living with higher moral values—that’s what Machiavelli was talking about.
I question whether that trend will change—at least until we have a genuine crisis. Why not? Because a lot of the way a society acts comes from the way kids are brought up—the values that are inculcated in them when they’re young. And increasingly, kids are taught what I would call the wrong values.
Saint Ignatius said this in the 17th century, and Lenin repeated it in the 20th century. They both said that if you indoctrinate someone in his youth, chances are you’ve directed his worldview for the rest of his life.
Cultural Marxists are now totally in control of the US educational system, and have been for a couple of generations. That’s absolutely the case in the colleges and universities but also in the high schools and even in the grade schools. Kids are being taught to be socialists, ecowarriors, social justice warriors, and “woke” from an early age. It’s really serious.
And it’s not a cyclical phenomenon. This is one of the few areas in which I take some issue with The Fourth Turning. The trend towards collectivism and statism seems to be a secular long-term trend that’s still accelerating.
There are a few bright spots. Libertarians, for instance, are somewhat more prominent than in the past. But the fact that libertarians believe in personal freedom, in the face of a societal trend in the opposite direction, makes me tend to believe they’re actually genetic mutants. They’re just a small percentage of the population, whose nature has resisted the prevailing nurture.
I say that, only partially because of my own experience. I grew up in what could—jokingly—be called a cannibalistic death cult and was imbued with all kinds of strange notions by nuns and priests at the schools that I went to. I rejected them intuitively and intellectually, but they still stick to you like tar. It can take years to wash off the effects of early indoctrination.
I’m more of a maverick than most people are, however. Most just continue to believe what they’re taught as kids, reflexively and automatically—right or wrong. So I don’t think there’s really much hope of a serious change in the direction of American culture. At least until a major crisis—and the outcome of that is in doubt.
International Man: OK. That’s the long-term trend. Where are we in the generational cycle now? Are we moving into the fourth turning and headed for a crisis?
Doug Casey: Strauss and Howe take a cyclical point of view over the course of roughly 80 years, four generations.
To very briefly summarize their theory, there are four “turnings”: a “high,” an “awakening,” an “unraveling,” and a “crisis.”
Over the last couple of decades, we’ve been undergoing the unraveling, where old values fall apart. Next, Strauss and Howe predicted a crisis, starting about 2015, which tests the very existence of the society. Or at least the way it’s run.
They go beyond seeing generations as being simply “liberal” or “conservative.” According to Strauss and Howe, there are four generational archetypes that last over a cycle of 80 years—20 years per generation—corresponding to the “turnings.”
Without going into all the details, they see the baby boomers as being a “Prophet” Generation. The authors are ideologically oriented—fire and brimstone types—very much like Bernie Sanders on the left and Donald Trump on the right. Kind of biblically apocalyptic by nature.
They were quite correct in defining the Generation X types as the so-called “Nomad” Generation. These are kids who learned to take care of themselves—and are not so ideological in the way they think.
The Millennials are who are relevant at the moment. They correspond, in Strauss and Howe’s view, to the World War II generation. They’d be the frontline soldiers in the coming crisis and conflicts.
International Man: What happens after a crisis? Is there a positive way forward?
Doug Casey: Historically, the answer is, “Almost never”—in the short run. The best recent example is the French Revolution. It got worse with Robespierre—a Bernie Sanders of the era—followed by Napoleon. Or take the case of the Russian revolution. As necessary as it was to get rid of Nicholas II, it got worse with Lenin, and then it got even worse with Stalin. But even in those cases, France and Russia recovered.
If it all comes unglued in the US over the next decade, those two revolutions could be templates. Look at the way leading Democrats think, and listen to what they’re saying. They’re echoing Robespierre and Lenin.
The Republicans aren’t much better, because although they sometimes talk the talk of peace and personal freedom, they almost never walk the walk. The two major US parties—and people in the Red counties and the Blue counties—seem to really hate each other.
It’s quite ugly sociologically. There are irreconcilable differences. They’re exacerbated by the fact we’re headed for a financial blow up. There’s no doubt about that.
Some years ago, there was a poll taken among Generation X types. It turned out that more of them believed that space aliens were going to invade than that they were ever going to collect Social Security. People have very little faith in “the system” anymore, the society, or the government.
If we go back to the beginning of the 20th century, the country really wasn’t very political at all. People worried about their own lives, their own families, and their own local communities. Americans shared a common culture, beliefs, and values—that’s no longer true. Now the country has become very politicized—everybody has a loud voice and they use votes as weapons against their neighbors. It’s become a nation of nasty busybodies.
That makes me think the next upset will be something like a revolution. It’s likely to be really ugly, because we’re looking, simultaneously, at an economic catastrophe, political chaos, and a social and demographic upset—and probably a military situation as well. Government often sees war as a way to unite the country.
So, what’s going to happen?
I’ll hazard a guess that 50 years from now, the United States and, for that matter, most countries are not going to exist in anything like their present form. The best solution is a peaceful break up into smaller political subdivisions. As opposed to a civil war—which is a contest between one or more groups for the control of a central government.
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Teddy Roosevelt certainly was bad for the country, but he is a less obvious disaster because of Woodrow and Franklin who made things so much worse.
Another good source for the generational theory is at generationaldynamics.com
The weird thing is that the ‘Jefferson-Jackson’ Democrats actually were the party of the little guy, while it was the Republicans who were the party of finance, industry and empire. Needless to say, that changed with Mr. Wilson and Colonel House.
At least we’re all on the same page now.
” The weird thing is that…”
” Instead, Hamilton wanted to tie the economic interests of wealthy Americans, or “monied men,” to the federal government’s financial health. If the rich needed the government, then they would direct their energies to making sure it remained solvent.”
“1) Hamilton, therefore, believed that the federal government must be “a Repository of the Rights of the wealthy.” As the nation’s first secretary of the treasury, he proposed an ambitious financial plan to achieve that.
2)Nevertheless, President Washington and Congress both accepted Hamilton’s argument. By the end of 1794, 98 percent of the country’s domestic debt had been converted into new federal bonds.”
No president was as bad as (((Lincoln))).
The Heartless Bastard manipulated Americans to declare war on fellow Americans.
Lincoln the Warmonger was clearly warned that the South was done (fed up with) with the Union’s Tax Forts robbing Southerners, and to get them the hell out of the South; but Lincoln wanted to keep that tax going, and to make the South fire on them (the Union) to start the war. Much like FDR knew cutting off oil etc from Japan before WWII would cause Japan to attack US; and NATO knew that expanding to Russia’s borders would cause them to attack; and FJB taking actions to offend China over Taiwan will cause them to attack. I’m no Trump fan now but his corruption pales (it’s nada) compared to democrat’s corruption and Treasons; and Trump shines like a star compared to war with Russia and China; what the hell are the NeoCons and Useful Idiots thinking (smoking and drinking)?
Lincoln was a joo?
Not sure; he looked it and certainly acted like it, and was backed by them at minimum.
Worst. president. Ever.
Well now we know how we got into this mess. They were too worried about their own lives to care about the creation of the Federal Reserve, the implementation of the Income Tax theft, Teddy Roosevelt getting us into a war he promised to keep us out of…shall I go on? And they didn’t even have smart phones to distract them.
And, of course, they blamed the prior generation for the problems of the day.
The Crisis Continues.
did you mean Wilson?
Vox Day has an interesting take on a potential war with Mexico….
Why Mexico Turned to China
After turning a blind eye to the Mexican invasion of the USA for the last 40 years, Republicans now want to invade Mexico:
What they’re leaving out is the fact that the US military trained the cartels. The cartels are genuinely analogous to ISIS, in that ISIS was a US creation utilized to justify the US military intervention in Syria. First they create the problem – ISIS, the cartels – and then they offer the solution, which is always a military intervention.
But whereas Russia stepped in to prevent the US from effecting regime change in Syria, I think we can expect China to step in to prevent the US from effecting regime change in Mexico. I also suspect that the “young Chinese men of military age” reported being seen in Mexico by Michael Yon are not there to prepare for a Chinese invasion of the southern border, but rather, to build the Chinese military bases that will be used to defend the Mexican government from the US military.
That is rather horrifying to think about. Also millions of potential terrorist cells and Mexican collaborators within our country already.
Those cars full of Mexicans/latinos are not flying American flags on their rearview mirrors.
True story– on 9/11 I was out in Chantilly VA not far from Dulles airport. Weird how quiet it was without a plane taking off every minute as you get accustomed to ( their were military jets buzzing by though).
It happens that I walked past 6 or 7 mexican guys under a tree eating lunch and we talked about the sad day. I asked them, “if we go to war will you fight for America?”
The answer was quick and required no thought from them– “fuck that! Is not my country, I go fuckin home”
I’ll never forget that and neither should any of you. They don’t come here to be Americans. They send billions of dollars out of the country every year to their “homeland” families– much of it tax payer dollars or money saved because of all the programs. They are here to make money in this foreign land, exploit it and send the money to their native country.
And who is it that is at least partially responsible anyway as in enabling those peeps?
I told people about them training cartels through the Mexican special forces, trained by our Special Forces. Some even say the zetas were actually trained by American not Mexican operators. I was labeled a conspiracy nut. Funny how the fools never/rarely apologize when proven wrong.
Of course, that’s “the best solution” from a WESTERN view of liberty, freedom, etc. It is NOT the view amongst the elites. Measuring our enemies with our metrics rather than their metrics is mistake too often made today…
Or maybe TPTB know about and believe in generational theory also and decided this was the perfect time to institute their plan?
Using the cyclical nature of society to eventuate a linear Orwellian outcome that they hope to maintain lordship over for the next hundreds of years? Pretty brilliant, if not fully diabolical.
Educate your children and deprogram them…I don’t want to have to deal with them during a civil war or revolution, there will be no shortage of tangos.
Dems=socialists=communists=progressives ====> Genocide & slavery. These evil imbeciles must be eradicated.
Been saying Remember Nicole for 20 years, maybe I need to add the J6 and Trump.
“Older people have a tendency to think the world is going downhill.”
Unfortunately, this time we’re right…
In general, they usually are.
Over and over again.
“seems to have become increasingly volatile in the United States and more broadly in the West. Is this a unique situation or part of a recurring historical cycle?
Had to stop right there.
Soros, Gates, Schwab, Diamon, Nuland, etc are a recurring breed of Tyrants that feeds the cycles. As the Tyrants destroy the food & fuel, spray the skies with poisons, mandate deadly Shots and CDC Protocols, discriminate against the Majority, start wars; and conspire to destroy the US Treasury dollar and replace it with their FedCoin with spyware and controls, etc, there should be volatile opposition by Citizens.
What is happening to big retail stores in Blue cities like Chicago (having to be closed due to shrinkage), to woke public schools, railroads, banks, is happening to governments all over the country now because of AA black programs/welfare and open border illegal immigrants: America is going broke and stupid. As one city, county , state after another becomes an American Blue -black Haiti.
…Intended/Implied, replying to Your 2 observations in one from me.
imho? Continuous/contiguous ‘Lineage’ going all the way back to:
John 8:44 “Ye are of your father the devil, and the lusts of your father ye will do. He was a murderer from the beginning, and abode not in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father of it.”
Think most ‘normal’ people would admit that things are ‘strange’, & getting ‘stranger’ by the second.
Especially in/for the last few (no pun intended) years?
The Bible IS about the ONLY thing that makes ANY sense, to me currently, and for a minute. And not to brag, but i’ve read a little in my life. Fascinating Tome, and i’ve barely scratched the surface.
Free Will, Indeed. Again, imho, only gonna get worse, not one thing i can do to change the CLEAR trajectory.*
‘Course, i identify as an uncomplicated white, he/him who learned but little in my all consuming, lifelong pursuit of
knowledge/money/security/contentment, etc.PUSSY.In closing. The blacks, illegal aliens, poor white trash, Etc.? ‘Engineered’ as well for the fast approaching point-of-no-return, “Moment in Time”
Good ‘distraction’ when TLPTB are fleeing en masse, via helicopter, boat, whateva. MANY are prolly ‘gone’ already. @ the very least, MANY are gettin’ kinda antsy. Or they should be.
In the popular parlance? Gonna be Epic.
When?
“But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.”
Or something like that.
*Self-Defense of near & Dear? ONLY Pray i don’t squeal like a little bitch when what is assuredly coming gets ‘Here’.
You still chasing “PUSSY?
“You still chasing “PUSSY?”
Although, as i said here before. Was called away during final negotiations. Unbeknownst to me, The Word Obey was stricken from the Vows.
Made a vow ta myself, after it was too late.
SOON as i find out which one of ’em has the most $$$$$$?
i’m gonna sue.
Generational dynamics theory, insightful forecasts and predictions; or self fulfilling prophecy and predictive programming? Can we ever know the difference..
Upvoted. I used to buy The Fourth Turning theory. Now I believe the psychopaths in charge are just using it as cover for their plans to kill us all off. The book might even be part of the plan.
America enters the 4th Turning as Russia is just getting started in its Golden Age. Emigrate to Russia if you can!!!
Wanna see something effin AMAZING??
Mariupol last year, after Russia destroyed much of the Azov fascists.
.
.
Same location TODAY!!
A workers’ paradise!
Stack ’em and pack ’em. Doesn’t exactly say home sweet home to me.
You gotta stack the sheeple up somewhere. some people like it like that .
I’ve never been comfortable with that particular truth.
Resolve to go out fighting, not be slaughtered like sheep by the ZOG.
It backfired on the communist in Spain 1936-39; they got stacked/sacked.
Yeah communist and nazis and NeoCons.
More cool shit from the evil Ruskies.
Remember that $25 million dollar Reaper drone they knocked out of the sky? That crashed in the Black Sea? Welllll …. they recovered it. And figured out how it works! Yea. The General in charge of the United States Space Force is really really bent out of shape over this. “We won’t be able to spay on them anymore, waaaaaa!” Hahaha.
=====================================
And the day before yesterday, an article appeared in the publication Svobodnaya Pressa, where journalists reported that our people not only picked up the wreckage, but also successfully studied it. Moreover, they even indicated which organizations participated in the study-KRET JSC and the Central Research Institute of the Aerospace Forces of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
—
“What did you get from the bottom? A number of critical electronic intelligence units, optoelectronic and radar complexes, as well as telemetry and secure satellite communication stations, and a data exchange system terminal were raised.
What information was extracted from the equipment? Our specialists, as the joint venture writes: “were given the opportunity not only to study the desoldering of ultra-high-frequency APY-8 radar units, but also to determine the energy parameters of its operation, including the mode of reversed synthesized (ISAR) and synthesized (SAR) apertures. And also calculate the level of noise immunity and approximate resolution of the radar, based on the data of devices for primary (secondary) conversion of the reflected radar signal.”
What will it do? Our people will be able to calculate and estimate the magnification and resolution capabilities of the devices. This will allow you to understand exactly what this “bird” sees, what equipment, at what distance, and in what weather. No less important is the fact that specialists have identified communication channels and their noise immunity. Thanks to this, our electronic warfare system will be able to effectively resist these annoying birds.
Now, knowing the distance from which the drone sees our equipment, and knowing the communication channels and noise immunity, you can drive it away so that it does not sniff out anything. The United States initially flexed its muscles by sending a similar drone accompanied by two fighter jets. But then they moved all the routes from our coast to a sufficient distance, which does not guarantee the quality of exploration, and maybe does not guarantee at all, and even if the weather does not contribute to exploration.
In conclusion, we will say that this operation has brought excellent results. Now our opponents have much less opportunities for exploration. Knowing the satellite flight windows that the drones tried to cover, you can conduct relocations, etc., plus these drones made it possible to conduct provocations at sea and on land using drones against our fleet or strategically important objects. Well, no less important is that specialists will dig into modern American devices, perhaps they will take something to work.”
https://ms-news.ru/110416698-r…
Stucky- When are you leaving?…..Maybe I’ll join you.
Stuck, I can no longer listen to Donald Trump BS, and NOW they are throwing in a (blankety- blank) F’n Kennedy shill. I can’t play this anymore.
OBTW- Bidet and the rest of the commies just went ALL IN for 5 BILLION for moar vax shit shots. Yippie…….
BL the Disgruntled
BL, does that mean you previously listened?
No Tex, Heavy D permeates the air like tear gas. The more you run the more it follows and overtakes your very being until you suffocate and wither. Adding in a criminal class DEM Kennedy makes the experience even more unbearable.
Check. Other than reading some of his comments in “news” articles I actually “listened” only once during the comical 2016 GOP so called debate where he said he had never seen anyone sweat like Marco Rubio. That was funny. lol And that was the so called debate where Megyn Kelly was bleeding out her eyes. That comment was dumb.
A good first step toward recovery would be removing all the Negroes, faggots, trannies, junkies, and other social vermin from the territory of the USA.
How about the drunks, the homeless and the pimps & hoes? The tax evaders. The triple dippers? The stupid. The lazy. The insouciant?
Take away everything you hate about America and you got nothing left!
Somebody hates to much; they need to get out into Flyover Country and see what regular Americans are like.
“How about the drunks, the homeless* and the pimps & hoes? The tax evaders. The triple dippers? The stupid. The lazy. The insouciant?”
Presumptuous on my part, of course. Are you referring to ALL the politicians @ the federal, state, local…AND global level?
* https://www.gawker.com/5145553/rahm-emanuels-illegal-dc-basement-rental
https://www.gawker.com/5147456/rahm-emanuel-bunked-for-free-in-pollsters-basement
https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14657512 Ambassador to japan
The homeless are there to create a sanitation/hygiene crisis.
After cholera and other sanitation diseases start stacking bodies like cordwood,
that’s when TPTB will start rounding them all up for “the health of the community”
TPTB will include sweeping up the unvaxxed in the “sanitation violation” laws.
Rodrigo Roa Duterte for POTUS 2024. And some say I never offer another candidate?
Our lives in great part are dictated by our habits. Our habits are formed by our disiplines. When we lose our morality and our ethics, our disipline goes with them. We lose our moral compass and we deteriorate as a culture.
Every society that has failed, first lost its morals and ethics. They become obsessed with their own selfish desires and pleasures. In my life, every generation has lost more of its disipline as time has gone by. I am not sure how much longer we can continue like this.
The **Demented Fool Moron**, Biden, (not said lightly), attacking the hydrocarbon industry driving Gasoline and Diesel up to $5 runs through EVERYTHING transported to all the retailers.
The Demented One is sucking off the government teat for his whole life, NEVER buying his own groceries or gasoline, living in his cocoon, inside his bubble.
Installed into the office by the biggest crime/fraud ever. SEE the movie “2000 Mules”.
They’re just gonna stand on the gas , right off the cliff
https://mobile.twitter.com/Spiro_Ghost/status/1646288965794955264?cxt=HHwWgIDUvfHF5dgtAAAA
Real American Hero’s
Conservative activist launches ‘Ultra Right’ beer as rival to Bud Light after Dylan Mulvaney controversy
Bud Light’s recent partnership with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney has driven one Republican to launch his own beer that’s specifically marketed to conservatives.
The beer — dubbed the “Conservative Dad’s Ultra Right” — is currently being sold online, and the response has been “nuts,” according to the man behind the mission to defeat “woke corporations.”
Fox news
And there is yet another suggestion for POTUS. Ultra Right 2024.