The Chinese movement of border expansion across the Straits to Taiwan after hundreds of years of being dominated by outsiders provides an interesting puzzle. Pride of self and of country are large motivators of the Chinese people. They are quite convinced they are the superior culturally and intellectually to everyone. The feeling that dastardly western trash have been tolerated much too long in many sectors is rampant. Insular attitudes are deeply imbedded in the country.
The idea of Chinese international political equality and superiority began to rise towards fruition after the fall of the Soviet Union. The western economies were eager to find a new low cost labor source. The Japanese had absorbed the lessons of western economic planning and had grown exponentially more wealthy. Their now expensive labor had to be replaced by Koreans who went through the same cycle and had also become expensive. This great growth in overseas wealth came at the expense of American workers but no one but Ross Perot mentioned it then or now. China seemed to be the best source of new labor and the mantra of “one billion new consumers” wet panties across corporate America. The Chinese paid off Dollar Bill Clinton for WTO membership and our race to the bottom was on.
The Chinese people were given a glimpse of international norms and loved it. Living standards rose and the Peking government basked in the glow. Visions of international relevance flashed through the leadership but it required incredible amounts of money. The money was earned by the people and of course stolen by the government using the same methods that were perfected in DC. When the wheels of power got a bit rickety for the leadership during the Convid scam, a program of overseas dragons to slay was created and has risen to keep the citizens’ eye off the ball. The USA and the world can easily handle the dragons’ appetite for Taiwan in the following manner.
The armed forces of the world are in a period of evolution of armaments and attacks have proven to be more difficult than anticipated, Russia and Ukraine being the current example. This indicates that old tabletop war games may be out of date. There may be a new tactically dominant system and country waiting in the shadows. This possibility should make all countries a bit more circumspect in power projection.
Everyone realizes that 60% of world trade flows through the Straits of Formosa. China is the largest exporter in the world! Of course it is a busy area. China needs to keep the trade flowing to finance and feed their people. They have no interest in plugging things up because they would lose money and influence. If we cut off trade a crisis would immediately arise with everyones’ financial stability. (We could invite China to escort our vessels back home and our grain ships to Shanghai and save quite a bit of money).(S) The bromide of Chinese dominance of this trade area is based on a false premise.
They must have coal, oil and grain imported daily to impede starvation in the dark. If we simply declared China off limits to our grain exports they would be brought up quite short. “Asking” Canada and Brazil to join in would complete the maneuver. If the Chinese attacked us in retaliation they would destroy their own food sources which is never a good idea. They are not that stupid. Australia and Saudi Arabia could be counseled to halt energy shipments of coal and oil as well. This is the easy way to slow things down to a crawl without casualties.
The world has been ruled by US remnants of the Milner Group for 80 years. Consequently, the international forums are dominated by western protocol and thought. Remnants of this Western colonial programs influence all international forums and diplomacy. The Chinese have absorbed many of these ideas and have reached their age of instability in attempting to dominate 1.4 billion people. Their expansion/control will begin to decline with any small storm. Tiananmen Square is a stark reminder for their Politburo of the people being influenced by western thought. Too much repression will have consequences. Loss of lifestyle is a prime political problem created by loss of a growing economy. War and hunger are the starting points of revolution.
A program to create enough problems internationally for China could be easily constructed. The first spot is to support India. India does not appreciate English systems as their experience with colonial overlords was not positive. However, these days she is much more concerned with China than Downing Street. India uses English and has a system of English common law. Moving factories there has already begun. Labor is cheap and the population certainly can use any cash inflow. (This assumes we do not move jobs home, which we should!) These areas alone point in a positive direction. The best item from Indias’ point of view is that we have a recent track record of not interfering in Chinas’ domestic politics as a price for economic gains. This should ease the hesitancy of expanding the Quad Treaty to economic areas. Since India is currently at war with China using an armament of bricks, it should be a simple matter to expand things economically which puts more pressure on China at home.
Vietnam is also an area that could be accessed as a trade source to Chinas’ detriment as the populations hate each other. Lastly, the Philippines and Japan also have experienced quite a bit of flack from China. Japan is a strong independent power and the Philippines could provide excellent bases. This Quad system is quite formidable and the Chinese are very aware of it. The last piece on the board is Russia. Currently Russia and China are all smilies but historic paranoia on both sides does not bode well for a long term relationship.
China has weaknesses that can be easily exploited without an armed confrontation. Internal difficulties are more acute than usually discussed. A strong diplomatic program could easily eliminate the war issue unless a decision to “wag the dog” is agreed upon by the MIC and the Chinese Politburo behind the scenes.
In the end there is no need for war with China because we hold many excellent cards. Their weaknesses both economically and militarily do give an air of unpredictability. However with President Biden on the Peking payroll, normal matters could take quite a different path.
I remember reading something on TBP about how the Chinese Gov. needed to produce so many jobs each month to match the population demand in their country. They need us to buy their junk. I hope the quality improves to Japanese levels. For years as I traveled the country I witnessed Ross Perots talk about the sucking sound as jobs left for China. People all across the country talked about factories closing up and moving to China.
“The Chinese movement of border expansion across the Straits to Taiwan . . .”
In 1661.
“. . . there is no need for war with China . . .”
Not any legitimate one. It is the US that abandoned its traditional ally, the republican government of China, in the late 20th century.
China is not the principal expansionist power.
We all know it’s USa
China is about to experience a uniquely Western experience…finding yourself the least popular person in a bar fight.
“THERE HE IS! OVER THERE! GET HIM !!!”
“after hundreds of years of being dominated by outsiders”
Like Hawaii?
BOLSHEVICKS…..fify,where do you think they learned Communism from!
Here in FUSA we have an Economy. We don’t need no stinkin borders. We have a voluntary Union of Sovereign States LOL.
But in China they need to have borders. The most important being that border between a nation full of Chinese people and an Island full of Chinese people.
That the FUSA officially recognizes One China but also that Democracy Island’s right to exist, while spending billions to avoid enforcing its own sovereign borders because Free Market Global Labor is Who We Are is just the kind of foreign policy we come to expect.
The way our uniparty occupying polity and its feeder institutions can with a straight face dissect a nation of people and her worth, intent, motivations, and best interest who have managed to exist for eons while systemically destroying a 250 y/o nation blessed with industrious people and wealth of natural resources in just a few generations, all atop a mythological democratic ideal so threadbare that a drooling moron in its highest office who got the most “votes” ever is pissing himself on live TV between “repeat the line” is a level of hubris that would topple the Han in a year.
Perhaps if we want to beat China for some reason, we should just export that hubris and all the over-represented experts running our Pleasure Island Disney Democracy instead of wheat.
Which is odd, given that in my short life all the history consists of one long edited-for-TV drama about how we have a moral imperative to export just that to every other nation in the name of Our Freedom.
The Russians ought to be terrified about the Chinese invading Siberia. It is hard to defend and sparsely populated. The Chinese, resource poor, could put Siberia’s natural resources to better and faster use than Russia. Finally, China has a huge excess of young males who could be put to good use taking and then exploiting Siberia. Why would China risk war with the U.S., and all its western markets when Siberia is ripe for plucking, especially now that Russia has depleted its military in the Ukraine? We should be offering alliance to Russia in order to further isolate China. China’ army would be far less imposing if it had to seriously guard the Sino-Russian border.
Did Vicky Nuland send you here?
Just curious, but that sounded like US as much as them.
Are we dependent on foreign sources for most of our manufactured goods? Including pharmaceuticals, military, green energy goodies, rare Earth’s,. . . ?
What if Russia and China were supplying all those military aged single males with the black market good from Ukraine and driving them up here on the prison buses that will later be used to ship mom and pop normie to the camps?
WOW! If I heard myself say that eight or ten years ago I would have said that’s crazy. But once you see the strings on the puppets you can’t stop seeing.
To put a planer explanation on it, how many times do you have to lose the bet on a coin toss that always comes up heads for the other guy before you want to see both sides of that coin for yourself?
If any of this solution offered could easily and effectively done, assume the us will do the opposite, cause we need more wars for reasons. Anything that remotely makes sense will be ignored
For our part, the Philippines has already struck deals with the US for strategic bases, 9 in all at last count. These are not built-out yet, but China is not happy about them.