Guest Post by Matt Smith
Editor’s Note: Matthew Smith is a close friend of Doug Casey’s. He is the co-founder of the podcast “Doug Casey’s Take,” where he and Doug discuss a variety of topics and share wisdom on how to navigate today’s uncertain environment.
We urge you to read Matthew’s article on how to thrive in “The Great Reset.”
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If you watch our podcast Doug Casey’s Take, you already know. We’re in the middle of a complex and destructive phase full of unknowns.
Our goal with The Phyle is to focus on solutions. To make progress, we must clearly articulate the problem.
Amidst this chaotic phase, it’s impossible to predict even the near future. The best we can do is form a hypothesis and orient our actions around it.
Today I’m going to lay out my process and conclusions. I hope that they will be as useful to you as they have been to me.
Assumptions
We’ve been taught that assumptions are bad. They make an “ass” out of “u” and “me”. But, that’s not always true. I developed a set of assumptions about the future to build a framework of understanding. I use that framework to identify what IS in my control and what is NOT in my control.
The things outside our control, we can stop worrying about. They’re not up to us. Instead, our concern is what IS in our control and all our energy and resources should be dedicated there.
Before I get to the assumptions I’m operating under. Let me say – They are assumptions not predictions. I could be wrong. Hell – I hope I’m wrong. But with nearly three years of the “Great Reset” under our belt, I bet you’ll agree – they have merit.
None of this should be taken as a blackpill. No problem can be solved without sober identification and acceptance. of the nature of the challenge. That’s all we’re doing here.
With that in mind, here are the 11 assumptions I’m using today to guide my actions.
1. Less Freedom of movement. There will be more effort so to restrict and regulate our freedom of movement. From Vax passports to increased visa requirements and 15-min city initiatives – a grid is being constructed to regulate our freedom of movement.
2. A CBDC is coming. Cash will be eliminated. How restrictive it may end up being, I don’t know. But, CBDC is a foregone conclusion. Timing? BIS publishes estimates of 14 retail CBDC and 9 wholesale by 2030. And there are indications that the major economies are working to be ready to deploy by 2025.
3. The digital ID is already here. Biometrics are the future. If you have a government issued ID associated with your photograph, you are in the system already. How the ID is deployed and enforced is the only question.
4. GFC 2.0 and/or the Greater Depression. Timing is hard. But, can any thinking person imagine how the outcome can be avoided altogether. Simon Hunt suggests a market pullback of up to 30% between now and early 2024 followed by a pump and a deflationary wipeout in 2025.
5. Most of my financial assets will disappear at some point. Inflation, bank bail-in, market wipe out, or Great Taking. I don’t know the cause, but I assume physical assets are where I need to be, ultimately.
6. Increasing crime & disorder. You’ve seen the videos. Whether, driven by economic desperation, mass migration, the inversion of law, or in the name of social justice. Crime and disorder will grow and lead to greater physical threats to our lives and property from our fellow man. This makes urban environments, especially but not exclusively, a real risk.
7. Supply constraints are increasing around all commodities – from food to energy. Tight supplies are showing up everywhere. Live Cattle, long dormant, hit an all-time high recently. Oil Prices are up 30% in the last three months. 40% of Argentina’s wheat crop is in poor to fair condition and protectionist policies are on the rise globally.
8. WW3 is coming. A good case can be made that it’s already begun. The Army War College recently published a study suggesting that the All Volunteer Force had reached the end of its useful life. With the military struggling with recruiting, conscription is likely at some point.
9. Censorship and Digital Control will enter a new phase. Deplatforming, de-banking, shadow banning, and social media account suspensions will increase. Centralized digital services of all kinds should be considered suspect and, very likely, dangerous to use in the future.
UN Chief calls “dis-information” a clear and present global threat.
10. The US election – regardless of the outcome – is an inflection point and potentially a flash point. IF it happens, the outcome will not be accepted by half of the country. I’ve heard from more than one source, publicly and privately, that there may not be a 2024 election. Who knows? We can be sure of is that running up to and shortly after the election, things could get wild. In advance of the 2020 election we had Covid and BLM. Shortly after, J6 and state overreach. What will 2024 bring
11. There is a war happening today. It’s a war on us. The primary battleground is within the sphere of 5GW – informational/psychological. Where I’ve been wrong in the last three years, it’s been in my assumption that kinetic coercion would be utilized. As we can see, much progress has been made in the Great Reset without the need for kinetic tactics. For most of this cycle, they will rely on this same approach. If/When we see a move toward kinetic force, we should be alarmed because we will have entered a new and more dangerous phase.
Do you disagree with any of my assumptions? Did I miss anything? Let me know.
I see all of the assumptions as “Out of my control”. They may not come to pass, but whether they do or not is not up to me. Of course, I’ll continue to speak out against them. If enough of us do, it may help. Possibly.
Since these unfortunate outcomes are out of my control, I don’t worry about them. And free from the burden of unsolvable problems, I can fully devote my energy and resources to what IS within my control.
Members of The Phyle have been doing exactly that over the last year. Much progress has been made. And there’s much more we can do. Let’s focus there.
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Buy gold?
The average person has less than 500 dollars in the bank, I tire of the frikin gold talk. Very unrealistic. if everyone were pushing silver it would make more sense. Kind of.
I’ll add in all the talk of crypto. Put all of your money that’s not backed by anything into a system that’s not backed by anything, can be controlled remotely and is gone once the system goes down; brilliant.
Craptocurrency
I only like Bitcoin because it’s decentralized. I can tell most people here haven’t researched it enough. most crypto is centralized like the banks. very soon we will all find out how good our planning was when the FED introduces a CBDC.
Excrement is decentralised too. So?
Yahsure,
“most people haven’t researched it”.
No Sir, you have not researched it ENOUGH.
To think there are no backdoors with crypto or that it’s “decentralized” is the height of being naive. AI will know your passwords…..by next week(smiley face emoji).
Uh, …. buy silver?
He’s big on crypto too. Because, you know, when Big Brother has total digital control of our lives, he’ll still let us hide money in blockchain accounts.
Anyone who has gone deer hunting with their favorite caliber scoped rifle has found that finding a deer is the hard part. actually shooting a deer is the easy part if in range. Some places have many deer causing problems that really need to be culled for the good of everyone. Considering the millions of deer hunters out there it seems very possible to fix this problem.
well as you said, hunting the “deer” is the hard part.
I almost pulled the trigger on a 300 WM today. A left handed, bolt action Christensen Arms with a carbon fiber barrel with muzzle break and a $2,500 Leupold scope. Consignment for $2,999. Looked just this…https://christensenarms.com/ridgeline-fft-titanium/
Really nice gun. A little out of my price range.
I prefer a smaller caliber. Animals don’t wear armor that stops high-velocity rounds from most rifles.
almost any caliber will down a deer.
I’ve killed deer with a .22 pistol… …but how many have you wounded that ran off screeching in pain only to die days later of blood loss or horrible infection , you may ask and the answer is zero. Head shot , every single time.
Good man. A real hunter. I wish more people would give a shit about doing it right.
Yesterday someone showed me a picture of a deer that someone else shot, with the typical smiling person kneeling down holding the head of the animal up and its tongue hanging out. What the fuck is wrong with them, I thought.
Whatsa’ matter , bruh …afraid of a real big game gun?
We see half a dozen pest deer here most weeks, calmly living among the houses, DC/Baltimore suburbs. I don’t know of any legal way they could be hunted. Anything that gets rid of them – other than car crashes – would be a good idea.
The Best you can do Is Survive, then worry about prospering.
one major feature you are missing is an enforcer class – a self-coherent group of people who all are reliable operators of this system. the soviet union’s communist party was 80% jeewish and it’s kgb was 90% jeewish, thus giving the upper-level ruling class a reliable and loyal enforcement arm throughout the country that could be depended upon to operate against the russian people.
who will fill that role in the united states?
Look to the southern border. See all those hard-hitting 3rd world dudes between 18-35. Think they would have a problem being their benefactors enforcers?
“members of the phyle”
you do realize, don’t you, that all these members are data-based and tagged for action later?
Klaus has got assumptions about us. This Rumble vid explains them:
This is one of the most interesting pieces I have read in a while. The assumptions – hard to argue on those.
10. The US election – regardless of the outcome – is an inflection point and potentially a flash point. IF it happens, the outcome will not be accepted by half of the country.
There will be an “election”. Elections are extremely useful for distracting the sheeple and giving them the illusion of choice. But of course it will actually be a selection (with Trump being selected), not an election. They will continue to have elections until they have achieved their goal of reducing the world population to 500 million and herded all of the survivors into 15-minute cities, and they will probably still have them even after that.
They will still have elections to give the illusion of choice.
Migrant town in Texas are run by competing cartels fighting over the stealing rights.
Thanks to Obama/Biden.
“This is a glimpse of what will happen throughout the US.
12. All politicians are compromised and blackmailed by jews.
I knew that GOP prettyboy was a cocksucker !
With the digibuck I expect there will be punishment for us. If they don’t turn our assets off,I expect they will throttle access so All we can do is pay the bills and eat enough to stay alive. Our online Activities will cost us. It’s criminal to Notice their crimes. I agree with the ones you list. I told my wife a few days ago that we would have digibucks, she asked how I know that. Well, They have been talking about it. Over and over. Nobody wants it. It’s bad for the People. It’s a freedom killer. Fifteen minute cities. That is coming Too.
Woke up this morning and got myself a beer.
The futures uncertain and the end is always near !
Let it roll baby, roll.
I love this guy. According to him, we’re headed for WW3, complete dystopia and government control, a police surveillance state that Orwell would have found beyond the imagination, yet if you just head off to Costa Rica with two passports, a few gold ingots and some bitcoin, you can avoid the whole thing. If what he says is going to happen, all the bets are off and there is nothing you can do to save yourself.
Ignoring what people like Matt tell you is a good place to start.