Project: Assess Firearm & Ammo Needs Without Delay

Guest post by Paul T. Martin

Before you get all worked up – I am not pressing the panic button.  I don’t even own a panic button.

But we could be at the early stage of a potential run on guns and ammo.  If you have specific firearms or ammunition needs, I urge you to remedy those soon.

Please note I am not trading on insider information.  I don’t have access to any.  I am basing this recommendation upon past instances where we saw spikes in demand when violent events filled our news feed.

I don’t spend much time on firearms on this blog, because there are a number of people who cover that subject much better than I do.  What most of them (and their loyal readers) spend little time on, however, is the logistics piece of it.

(N.B.: Much of what follows appeared in a blog post from February 2022 and another one from March 2023.  I have added a few updates.)

In March, NBC News ran this piece entitled “Ukraine is running low on ammo. Europe faces pressure to produce more.”  You need to spend the five minutes it takes to read this entire article.  It is well worth your time.  It does a really good job laying out the situation in Ukraine and the efforts of the EU to ramp up ammunition production. Bloomberg has covered this situation as well.

Some eighteen months ago, I advised readers to expect rising ammo prices.  The conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating anytime soon, and as there are now efforts to ramp up production to supply the Ukrainian forces, I would not be surprised if we saw increased prices in the future.  The massive conflict in the Middle East will only add to these demand pressures.

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Put another way, some of you need to figure out what you actually have in inventory, so you can make better purchasing decisions in the future.  If there is in fact a coming surge in demand for self defense items, you’ll want to get in front of it to ensure you’ve topped off.

Please note: I am not saying “go out and buy a bunch of guns and ammo.”  I am urging you to consider making some thoughtful purchasing decisions in light of the potential surge in demand.

I know this doesn’t sound exciting.  But much of preparedness is being a good steward, and a part of good stewardship is knowing what you actually have.  That’s why I am fond of saying two of your most important preparedness tools are a clipboard and calculator.

I’ve known people who have no idea how many guns they own or how much ammo they have.  I’ve never had so many guns I didn’t know what I owned, but I do buy ammunition from time to time when I find a good deal, or when it’s getting hard to find.  Or when I think I need to have some on hand for teaching students who may not be able to find it on their own.  This can result in having more ammunition in a given caliber than you realistically need.

Many purchase guns and ammo under the guise of prepping, but I would submit these people really aren’t prepared; they are simply using preparedness as justification to purchase something they already wanted.  This discussion really isn’t for those who do that; this is for people who want to improve their overall preparedness and make better spending decisions.

I’m going to defer to others in terms of what guns should prepared citizens own (my list is much different than what you will find in the blogosphere on the topic, and I’m not convinced one list of recommendations is a good fit for every citizen and every situation). I do make some basic recommendations in the Ready Citizen Manual for those who haven’t made any meaningful firearm purchases to improve readiness, but even then I urge readers to seek out professional help from reputable firearms trainers who have at least a basic understanding of preparedness.  Karl Rehn at KR Training and Greg Ellifritz at Active Response Training have written on this subject, as have others.

And so rather than wade into the arguments of what guns to have and what calibers to own for your situation, I’m going to share some guidelines centering around the logistics of guns and ammunition.  These include:

• Inventory what you already have.  I like to store ammo by caliber, so I can quickly surmise how much I have for each gun I own.

• Be realistic in your ammo needs.  Some of you shoot a lot.  Some of you own guns you’ve not fired 50 rounds.  Don’t go stock up on a bunch of ammo for a gun you don’t regularly shoot or won’t realistically need during a true ammo shortage.  If it’s just you and your spouse, you’re likely not going to need two dozen guns, in odd or unusual calibers, to keep you safe.

• Use AmmoSeek.com to help you find the best deals.  I use this website when I am purchasing ammo – it will give you a sense for how much ammo is selling for.  It’s a great tool.  Use it and buy in bulk.

• If you’re stocking up on 7.62×39, the prices – while higher than previous years – indicate it’s still available.  AmmoSeek currently shows these rounds going for as little as 37 cents each as of this post.  NATO 5.56 is roughly the same price – despite the fact it was several cents cheaper in March.  (If you took my advice back then, you’d be ahead of the game.)  If you’re an AK/SKS fan, given world events, you may want to consider stocking up 7.62 even if you have a fair amount at the moment.  Despite a ban on the import of Russian ammunition effective September 2021, it’s still getting into the country via loophole.  How long that loophole will last remains to be seen.

• Fewer guns with more ammo in common calibers trumps more guns with fewer rounds of several calibers.

• Guns that have parts interchangeable with parts from other manufacturers are a plus.  AR platforms are a prime example of this.  Glocks are great at using parts interchangeably with other Glocks.

• Spare parts and cleaning supplies are never a bad investment.

• Magazines are redneck bitcoin.  Have them in various capacities for guns you own.  Don’t neglect owning some smaller capacity magazines in the event the standard capacity ones become prohibited.  That goes for both handguns and long guns.

• Speaking of prohibited items, over the last couple of years I’ve procured a couple of revolvers, a pump action shotgun and a lever action gun.  You may wish to have firearm options other than semi-autos in the event they become prohibited.

• Ammo for trade or donation in times of need isn’t a bad thing to keep on hand, even if its in calibers for which you don’t own guns.  I don’t know that I would make a major investment in ammo for this purpose, especially if I don’t own a gun that can run that ammo.  But having 100 rounds of 380 ACP, even if you don’t own a 380, could be a life saver and relationship builder during an extended crisis.

• A word on loaning out guns: there can be significant legal and safety issues involved when loaning a firearm to someone.  Before you go out loaning guns to your neighbors to deal with whatever crisis has befallen your community, make sure you’ve thought this through.  Would I loan a gun to someone?  To the right person who has had some training and has a good attitude about safety and legal compliance, I wouldn’t have a problem doing so.  You need to think about their ability to not only run the gun safely, but also their ability to store it safely to prevent unauthorized access or theft.

• How much ammo to have on hand for guns you’ll be relying upon for self defense: as you might imagine, there’s been much written about this subject as well.  When I talk to citizens who take preparedness seriously, I quickly surmise most of them have plenty of guns and ammo.  But if you’re looking for guidance on recommended ammo volume to keep stocked away, this piece makes some salient recommendations.  I might suggest less for budget-conscious citizens.  For me, an absolute minimum would be 500 rounds for every gun and person realistically tasked with managing a firearm for home defense, in the correct caliber for the gun(s) you expect them to run. Again, this is not a hard and fast rule.  You do you.  And understand the money you could spend on buying thousands of additional rounds for the thousands of rounds you already have may better be purposed for extra food, water purification, OTC and prescription medications or alternative energy solutions.

• Eye and ear protection: I had some FSA money to burn a couple of years ago, and so I ordered two pair of ANSI rated safety glasses with prescription lenses.  I keep one pair with my evening layout since I don’t sleep in my contact lenses.  Have some quality eye and ear protection as part of your supplies – it doesn’t have to be expensive stuff.  3M makes very inexpensive ANSI rated eye protection, and I find these are sufficient for back up hearing protection.

• Self Defense Liability Products: I’ve written what I think is the most comprehensive analysis on the subject of self defense liability insurance/legal service programs out there.  I say that because I only wrote it since I couldn’t find the answers to the questions I had on the subject.  With any luck, someone smarter than me will write a better article we can all rely upon in the future.  But for now – if you’re going to make a firearm part of your preparedness plans, I highly recommend purchasing a liability protection product to go with it.  And quality training.

Much of high performance preparedness is logistics: keeping track of what you already have and maintaining it, so that it’s ready to be used when you need it.  It also helps you determine where there are holes in your supplies so you can prioritize future purchasing decisions.  High performance preparedness also requires you to make decisions about what may be coming – including surge demand for items you may need to top off.

So, Paul – what did you buy?

I purchased ammunition for my revolver, in large part to replace what I’ve used in training/re-qualification over the last few months.  I did add a modest amount of self defense grade revolver ammo to my very meager revolver supply. This should likely suffice me for the rest of my life, Lord willing.  I don’t carry a revolver, but if we are forced to do so for whatever reason, I want to have quality defensive ammunition for it.

I did so to ensure I have ammo for training purposes in the months ahead – even if there’s a run on ammunition.

I also purchased additional Federal 12 gauge defensive loads with FliteControl technology.  I opted for the 9 pellet because like everyone else, I cannot find 8 pellet in stock.

With regards to firearms, I will likely be making a couple of additions.  Since selling some firearms earlier this year, I’m only keeping in inventory what I reasonably need for defensive, training and hobby purposes.  Thus, I look at every purchase through the lens of “what will this firearm do to improve my readiness?”

To that end, I plan to add a semi-auto 12 gauge for home defense purposes and make the current Mossberg 590 a second home defense gun.  I can run a large pump shotgun in defensive shooting drills fairly well.  But switching to a semiauto would make a number of things easier for me.  And let’s face it – I am not getting any younger.

The other addition I’m contemplating is adding a pocket carry gun.  I have a Glock 26 which I have pocket carried in the past, but I found it too big to be an ideal option.

These things make sense for me.  They may not make sense for you.  Don’t do something just because I am doing it.  Do it because it makes sense for you.

At the beginning of this year, I urged you to toggle from speed to intensity in your preparedness efforts.  Reading the tea leaves and affirmatively getting out in front of the others is part of that.  I hope you are doing so.

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