Guest Post by Abbas Juma
Tehran’s retaliatory attack may not have caused much destruction, but it was far from a failure
On the night of April 14, Iran and its proxy forces launched a series of cruise missile and kamikaze drone strikes on Israeli territory. The attacks did not come as a surprise. Tehran had warned that it would respond to the Israeli airstrike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria, on April 1, which killed several high-ranking officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. The retaliatory strike was called Operation True Promise.
There is still much debate on whether Iran’s retaliatory strike was successful. Most military experts agree that there was nothing unusual about Tehran’s actions, except that this was Iran’s first direct attack on Israel. From a technical point of view, the strategy was simple and correct: Iran first suppressed the enemy’s air defense systems with drones and then launched hypersonic missiles which the Israelis and Americans were not able to intercept. Incidentally, in light of this, Ukraine’s statements about shooting down Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles sound ridiculous.
Do not jump to conclusions
Many experts were skeptical about Iran’s strike and hastened to say that the retaliation did not live up to expectations. Given the clip thinking of most commentators, this reaction is hardly surprising. Their reasoning resembles a Hollywood blockbuster stuffed with special effects, where the end of the world and its miraculous salvation fit into 90-120 minutes, with a love scene in the middle. In real life, things are different. As Sun Tzu wrote in ancient times, to fight 100 battles and win 100 battles is not the height of skill. The best way to win is not to fight at all. This is Iran’s strategy. Its strike against Israel was not so much a military response as a grandmaster’s move in a big chess game. And the game is not over yet.
After the attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria’s capital, Tehran found itself in a tough situation. It had to respond in a way that would look convincing and would achieve specific military goals, but would not start World War III.
To achieve the first point, Iran had to carry out a direct strike without resorting exclusively to proxy forces – and that is indeed how it acted. Regarding the second point, even though most of the missiles and drones were indeed shot down, some managed to penetrate Israeli air space and hit military targets. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, said that the information center on the Israeli-Syrian border and Israel’s Nevatim air base were hit. And finally, as to the third point – war didn’t happen. This resembled the situation in 2020, when the Iranians hit US bases in Iraq in response to the assassination of General Soleimani.
However, it is still too early to speculate as to whether Iran’s attack was a success or not. The big question now is how Israel will respond.
What Iran has accomplished
It’s important to emphasize that Iran’s operation carried more political than military weight. In this sense, it was carried out subtly and was a success. Obviously, the Iranians did not want to start a war which would involve the US, even though that is what Netanyahu wanted. In other words, Israel didn’t manage to provoke Iran.
It is also obvious that the Islamic Republic possesses more powerful drones and missiles than those used in the attack on April 14. However, even the less advanced drones and missiles were able to penetrate Israeli air space and inflict economic damage, since Israel spent much more money on shooting down the missiles and drones than Iran spent on launching them.
Tehran has once again demonstrated that Israel is not invulnerable, and it is possible to attack it. As for the degree of inflicted damage, which some commentators were unsatisfied with, it largely depends on the type of missiles and drones used in the attack – and Iran has a lot of military equipment.
Finally, Iran’s main achievement is that it has managed to confuse Israel in the same way that it was confused after the October 7 Hamas attack. The country has to respond. But how? Should Israel strike Iranian proxy forces? This is possible, but Israel does it all the time without much result. Should it hit Iran directly? But that would start a war which no one is prepared for, including the US.
Conclusion
The ball is now in Israel’s court, and the country faces the same challenges that the Islamic Republic did after April 1. But will Israel be able to solve these challenges as efficiently?
It is noteworthy that IRGC Commander-in-Chief, Hossein Salami, said that from now on, if Israel attacks the interests of Iran and Iranian citizens, Tehran will strike it again.
This is an important statement. Essentially, the attack carried out by Iran on April 14 was not just a retaliatory strike, but established a new order. Iran demonstrated that it is ready to resort to new means of influence in a situation where words are not sufficient. It attacked Israel directly not in order to start a war, but to demonstrate what could happen if all other methods of pressure on Israel fail.
A new option has been put forward. Israel may be deprived of its most important advantage – absolute impunity, which until recently had been guaranteed by the US.
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I’m no rocket surgeon, but it sounds to me like the Sampson Option just went on the table.
Brer Rabbit Bibi will not be helped by getting thrown into the briar patch.
We’ll see, won’t we?
The entire world has hated them for 4000 years…and they’re still here.
What’s THAT telling you?
Righto…if you were a ‘rocket surgeon’, you’d remove your pointed head from your ass, where you hear Langley’s whispers about the “Sambo Option”.
Well, Mr. Butt Hurt…
That makes perfect sense. All of your needs involve somebody’s butthole.
The Israelis are cowards. They do not want to die.
Do you want to die?
Gee, the Iranian response sounds so, what’s the word, DON”T tell me…oh yeah! Reasonable, calculated.
Who said religious fanatics cannot sometimes also be reasonable?
Trouble with Iran started with CIA assassinating the elected president in 1955 and installing the puppet regime of The Shaw !
Now take into account the forced acceptance that Great Briton and the US along with the UN created the State Of Israel in 1947 with a like it or not attitude towards the indigenous population that have lived in the area for centuries .
Decades of peace agreements that were attempts to basically sweeten the shit sandwich for the Arab Islamic and Christian populations in the region.
Meanwhile military aid and financial support for Israel created a complete imbalance of power in the region.
Knowing a Christian Family from the area , they tell a very different story about life in what became IDF occupied territory !
One major issue that never sees the light of day : Disagreements with the actions of the Israelis government does not mean you want another attempt at genocide .
Unfortunately the first casualty of any war is the truth
The problem with Iran started when it became an Islamic state. No non-Islamic neighbors to an Islamic state can ever have peace. The rest of the history is just details.
Exactly!
I’m amazed all the neighboring Muslim countries don’t start dogpiling onto Israel.
The more Israel is attacked, the close we are to the rapture and to God intervening. It’s gonna happen, and it’s gonna happen this wayl. Read your Bible, if you have one.
Fuck you and fuck your bible. Stick your bible up your ass.
Thats what you tranny’s call fun. I got something to stick up urass
Most do not like Iran, either. It’s the old Shiite vs Sunni battle that has been going on almost from the beginning of islam.
In general, the people in the middle east hate each other and have been warring since time began.
It has to do with Sunni and Shia Muslims. The Sunni Muslim nations do not like Iran and will not unite behind them
because all the little abrahams stick together
Sooooo… this “problem with Iran”… whose problem are you referring to?
Every problem that Israel and its lapdog USA are rolling uphill is a self-inflicted fuckup. Never read ‘Confessions of an Economic Hit Man?
If you had, you’d know that the real problem is a “Their oil is our oil!” problem.
Neither Israel nor the USA had a problem with Iran until Savak’s CIA-inspired, sadistic predations on the Iranian people became so onerous a popular rising deposed our finger-puppet Shah and Iran nationalized western oil companies.
A historical preview of the problem that the CIA, FBI, DHS, NSA and their dangling congressional dildos will create right here at home; a revolution to overthrow a repressive regime.
Your a complete moron.
Says the one who cannot differentiate between “your” and “you’re”…
All the upthumbs youve ever dreamed of, you’re’s for the asking, if you’d only been a Spellcheck Nazi instead of a Jockstrap Puppet and a complete maroon.
Well…you misspelled “moran”. 😉
No, I didn’t. Check TBP’s dictionary, maroon newbie.
The Terror released upon the Iranian citizens by the US supported regime of the Shaw opened the door for Islamic fundamentalists .
Iran was a more progressive nation until the CIA put their dick beaters to work.
we got cheap oil a little longer and the Shaw got Military aid thanks to Nixon
So that love affair lasted a while till the Iranians were pissed off enough and in comes the exiled Ayatollah and BOOM
So then came Iraq and Saddem
The Shaw?
Barry Hussein Shaw … an Iranian writer …
What you need to know about the Iranian attack on Israel but will not find in your mainstream news provider
At the strategic level, Iran demonstrated its ability to coordinate a missile and drone attack on Israel with its regional proxies so as to maximize the threat coming from all directions.
Iran used the attack to achieve a political and military objective that has long eluded it.
Teheran has now issued threats against Persian Gulf states to bomb any and all that allow the Americans to use their air space or otherwise facilitate Israel’s possible revenge attack on Iran from their territories. These states all fear a war and have now agreed to Iran’s demand. In effect, this negates decades of U.S. unchallenged domination in the Gulf.
Iran has specifically threatened the U.S. regional command in Qatar and the base of the 5th fleet in Bahrain.
The latter point is reflected in Biden’s latest urging restraint on Israel. Washington has understood that its forces in the region are now hostage to whatever Netanyahu may do against Iran as follow-up to this weekend’s barrage.
Furthermore, at the threat level, Iran has a still unused but clearly visible ace in the hole: its ability at will to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and thereby cut off nearly all export shipments of gas and oil from the region. The Straits are just 50 km wide and are easily controlled by Iran’s anti-ship missiles ashore. Such a closure would create havoc on global energy markets. We were reminded of Iran’s dominant position there several days ago when they captured a container ship owned by an Israeli millionaire which was traveling through and directed it to their own coast.
The Iranians were tentatively successful in two regards. The first is that they showed that if they ever get nukes, they have at least some likelihood of hitting a major population area. This has to be a huge concern for Israel. The second, as pointed out is that Iran can force Israel to expend enormously disproportionate wealth in defense. How this equates to a per capita or comparative GDP is a matter beyond my information. It would seem that the per capita expense is in Iran’s favor, but relative to GDP is probably in Israel’s. Israel needs to take out Iran’s nuke potential and now has a fig leaf to do it. They will probably calculate that such an action may start WWIII which they may, or may not survive, but if Iran can put nukes on ballistic missiles Israel is doomed.
Remember that one of the first casualties of war is the truth.
The mohammedans are liars so are the “honest journalists” of the west.
Well played, Iran.
Set a match to $1 Billion American taxpayer dollars, overnight, and demonstrate that your mothballed missiles and dummest drones can hit both of the bases which Israel used to launch their latest war crime.
After a three day notice and with stunning accuracy. Zero deaths.
Here are a couple of comments that resonated with me from Awakening Observer at UNZ regarding Iran’s calculated gambit…
1
Iran’s response to the Yidistani outrage on their embassy in Damascus must be rated as Plus+. As the original chess-masters, the men in Tehran did not over-react…but precisely the opposite. Their message was far more political than military. Though their hypersonics demonstrated that there is a new Big Dog in the Muddle East…they were strictly limited to specifically key military targets.
Most telling of all their moves was the fact that NOT ONE “Chosen” was killed or even severiously wounded in the mass assaults from their drones and low-speed cruise missiles and outdated ballistics. But the American taxpayer money the Israelis were forced to “invest” in taking down those decoys were almost orders of magnitude more costly than Iran’s throw-away, outdated stock.
What a hoot!
No, the “PTB” you inject, Turko, in one swell foop became the PTHB…the powers that have been. By no means did Iran hit the Yids with their best shot. Their top of the line…absolutely world-class…hypersonics were not even employed in that demonstration of overwhelming power. All serious geopolitical analysts received that message loud and clear.
Though there no adults in the rooms in the Di$trict of Corruption or various Europolitan Chancelleries…there are some highly informed individuals within their militaries and intel elements. Those guys will have the unenvious job of serving a cold dish of despair to their “superiors”. The core message is that the only possible way to mess up the Iranians would be the use of nukes. They also full well realize that “no nukes is good nukes”.
As geopolitical wrestlers, the Iranians have pinned not only the “Chosen” in Occupied Palestine, taking them down for the count…this conundrum also applies to the Collective Wa$te. No, the verdict is not Checkmate, per se…rather, with silent backup from Russia, China and most of the rest of the world..Iran has them in check…without even needing to use their Rooks. The Queen and the deciding bishop have the perps pinned in position, while a doughty knight drives them to distraction.
Iran’s demonstration was a classical game-changer. Israel may make some relatively meaningless raid on Iranian territory, just to keep their own public from constant kvetching. Tehran will ignore the silly gesture of a petulant child.
2
…cheers and fist-bumps popping all over the Arab and Muslim streets. Total delight, in a word.
Iran’s riposte was so cool-minded and measured that geopolitical analysts right across the planet were both stunned and shamelessly delighted.
The grin which broke out on Scott Ritter’s face in his interview by George Galloway was absolutely priceless.
The “Arab States” have domestic issues which will drop a cold, dank rag on any funny ideas the ruling elites may have in opposition to Iran. One might even speculate that in their heart of hearts, they too realize that there is a new Big Dog in town.
All those U$$A military bases located throughout the Gulf Oildoms are now under constant threat by Iranian missilry. And “all the King’s horses and all the King’s men cannot put Humpty together again”.
Militarily, those U$$A bases in and around the Gulf are effectually hamstrung. Their situation is hopeless.
What is worse for the Oilygarchs, led by the ruling Rottenfeller Crime Clan…is that Iran can pull the plug on the Straits of Hormuz…rapidly de-industrializing Europe and sending seismic shocks into Wall $treet and even City of London.
Serious $hit economically. Iran may have presented their hand…revealing a Royal Flu$h.
With a November election looming in the U$$A, it is not improbable that the $enile One in the Tainted House may experience some debilitating “accident”. Jill will lead him off the stage. The FeeBees will inform Willy Brown’s infamous “lap dancer” that they have more dirt on her than to be found atop any given landfill. So she will make a sorrowful announcement.
So who’s in line? Most probably Gruesome Newsom…as too many potential voters have already witnessed Michael’s broad shoulders.
Yup. This is one crazy year and we ain’t seen nuthin yet…except for that new Big Dog.
When surrounded by superior forces and given the option to step back from the brink it takes a special kind of fool to proceed. I fully expect Netanyahu to double down…just like the delusional little Uke Nazi.
We will have to see. My impression of the Israeli’s has always been that they are hateful murderous, and cowardly people. They have no compassion or respect for the rest of humanity, but they have an extreme aversion to anything harmful to themselves. While they are willing to murder defenseless women and children, I doubt they will start a fight where they stand to get their asses handed to them. Iran has the ability to destroy every city in Israel, and Israel would be unable to stop them. What they really want is for the US to fight Iran for them, but the truth is, the US does not want to take on Iran either. Those hypersonic missiles will take out a Carrier Task force just as easy as they hit those targets in Israel.
Hal Turner update: Minot Airbase is loading live nuclear cruise missiles on B-52’s
Judge Napolitano interviews Colonel Douglas Macgregor
“Will Israel go Nuclear?”
I laugh-snorted Raicilla out of my nose when I heard Judge Napalitano call George Galloway a pimp.
https://www.listennotes.com/podcasts/judging-freedom-judge-napolitano-BY_63fUJOlE/
Even more important … Iran has never been a threat to the United States — not ever …
We, on the other hand, in 1953….
CIA-assisted coup overthrows government of Iran
The Iranian military, with the support and financial assistance of the United States government, overthrows the government of Premier Mohammad Mosaddeq and reinstates the Shah of Iran. Iran remained a solid Cold War ally of the United States until a revolution ended the Shah’s rule in 1979.
Mosaddeq came to prominence in Iran in 1951 when he was appointed premier. A fierce nationalist, Mosaddeq immediately began attacks on British oil companies operating in his country, calling for expropriation and nationalization of the oil fields…
Working with pro-Shah forces and, most importantly, the Iranian military, the CIA cajoled, threatened, and bribed its way into influence and helped to organize another coup attempt against Mossadeq. On August 19, 1953, the military, backed by street protests organized and financed by the CIA, overthrew Mossadeq. The Shah quickly returned to take power and, as thanks for the American help, signed over 40 percent of Iran’s oil fields to U.S. companies.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/cia-assisted-coup-overthrows-government-of-iran
Time to usher in the mahdi
More Clown World inversion:
Apparently, nothing gold can stay. Fuck you, Ozzy . . .
.
.
Cutie helps explain and, with her disappointed face, exhorts us real men to do something:
From Valentine’s Day, 2021 (Oops, she’s married with kids now.)
The people of the world need to turn their backs on Israel, refuse to trade with them, and let them all starve to death. They are pure evil, and they need to be removed from humanity.
how many kikes died in the ‘strike’?
Talk about taking the long way around to justify a lie. You are a money mongering ass and that is why you write. Good nite
A couple of things not mentioned in the post or comments:
Switzerland hosted a backdoor meeting with the US and Iran with Israel sitting in the corner to discuss how and what kind of face saving action Iran could take.
So everyone knew in advance what was coming and where. Iran won the battle by attrition. One report was that 50% of the Israeli anti-aircraft assets that were operational that night were expended.
And as mentioned, Iran shows that it can reach out and touch someone.
Iran’s ability was never in question. It’s their balls and intellect which are in serious question…not to mention their ‘honor’.
Your ‘serious questions’ always involve somebody’s balls, dick or butthole.
Because your diary has more smegma smears than Ashley Biden’s.