GLOBAL WARMING? MANY REPUTABLE SCIENTISTS SAY NO.

Up front, I am a staunch Warmer skeptic.  What happened to the 1-2 mile thick sheet of ice which covered half of North America during the Ice Age, which ended 10,000 years ago?  It got warmer, and the ice melted, of course.  Up to 2 MILES THICK OF ICE COVERED MILLIONS OF SQUARE MILES OF LAND, AND IT DISAPPEARED, FOLKS.  What happened to the Medieval Warm Period, which lasted for about 400 years, 800-1200 AD, and grapes were grown on the now frigid, Arctic-like coast of the province of Labrador in Canada?  It got colder, and the settlements were abandoned, of course.

Did man have anything to do with those dramatic climate change examples?  Absolutely not.  Yet now, we are supposed to believe that MAN is causing, largely through carbon dioxide emissions of his activities in the past 150 years, the temperature of the Earth to warm.  A scant 40 years ago, similar scientists were warning the planet was heading towards a mini-Ice Age.

I don’t buy the Warmer hysteria, which is exactly what it is, and I am not alone in my skepticism.  Read on.

A List of Quotations from Scientists Who Reject Global Warming

“Because the greenhouse effect is temporary rather than permanent, predictions of significant global warming in the 21st century by UN-IPCC are not supported by the data.” (Hebrew University Professor Dr. Michael Beenstock, an honorary fellow with Institute for Economic Affairs who published a study challenging man-made global warming claims titled “Polynomial Cointegration Tests of the Anthropogenic Theory of Global Warming”)

“The UN-IPCC assessment process had a substantial element of schoolyard bullies, trying to insulate their shoddy science from outside scrutiny and attacks by skeptics…They will tolerate no dissent and seek to trample anyone who challenges them.” (Judith Curry, climatologist and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology; co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences; co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans; author of over 140 scientific papers)

“There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s a consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t a consensus. Period. The greatest scientists in the world are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.” (Michael Crichton, biological anthropologist, “Science” writer and author)

“I am flabbergasted at what the promoters of global warming have so far gotten by with. These ideological fanatics have invented a belief complete with predictions that cannot be wrong: Rainstorms — global warming! Drought — global warming! Snow storms — global warming! Freezing winters — global warming! Warm winters — global warming! Hurricanes, tornados, tidal waves — global warming! If someone had told me thirty-years ago that a group of professionals of varied scientific disciplines would mob up together and pull this ruse off, I would have declared that person insane. Yet every day, to my chagrin and embarrassment, I see that it has happened.” (Henrik Kleist, physicist/mathematician)

“Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. Every time you exhale, you exhale air that has 4 percent carbon dioxide. To say that that’s a pollutant just boggles my mind. What used to be science has turned into a cult.” (Will Happer, the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton University)

“In essence, the jig is up. The whole thing is a fraud. And even the fraudsters that fudged data are admitting to temperature history that they used to say didn’t happen… Perhaps what has doomed the Climategate fraudsters the most was their brazenness in fudging the data” (Dr. Christopher J. Kobus, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Oakland University, specializes in alternative energy, thermal transport phenomena, two-phase flow and fluid and thermal energy systems)

“We maintain there is no reason whatsoever to worry about man-made climate change, because there is no evidence whatsoever that such a thing is happening.” (Greek Earth scientists Antonis Christofides and Nikos Mamassis of the National Technical University of Athens’ Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering)

“Who are these scientists that present manufactured consensus as science? Who are these scientists who threaten the whole world with deadly forecasts in a desperate effort to force them to believe their postulate? Who are these scientists in the lead position of a proposition who refuse to show (much less accept or respect) qualified opposing views? They are the scientists behind manmade global warming — who represent a sharp u-turn back to the Dark Ages where dissenters were likely to find their heads in a bucket.” (Steven Hapberg; multi-disciplinary scientist)

“Global warming is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life.” (Physicist Hal Lewis, who resigned from the American Physical Society for its promotion of the “Global Warming Hoax”)

“The whole idea of anthropogenic global warming is completely unfounded. There appears to have been money gained by Michael Mann, Al Gore, and UN-IPCC’s Rajendra Pachauri as a consequence of this deception, so it’s fraud.” (South African astrophysicist Hilton Ratcliffe, a member of the Astronomical Society of Southern Africa and the Astronomical Society of the Pacific and a Fellow of the British Institute of Physics)

“It is impossible to talk about a single temperature for something as complicated as the climate of the earth. A temperature can be defined only for a homogeneous system. Further, the climate is not governed by a single temperature. Rather, differences of temperatures drive the processes and create the storms, sea currents, thunder, and so on, which make up the climate.” (Bjarne Andresen, of the Niels Bohr Institute, at the University of Copenhagen; Christopher Essex, of the University of Western Ontario; and Ross McKitrick, of University of Guelph, in Canada)

“Fears about man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science. The earth’s climate is changing now, as it always has. There is no evidence that the changes differ in any qualitative way from those of the past.” (Will Happer, the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton University)
“Hundreds of billion dollars have been wasted with the attempt of imposing an Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory that is not supported by physical world evidences (physics)… AGW has been forcefully imposed by means of a barrage of scare stories and indoctrination that begins in the elementary schooltextbooks.” (Brazilian Geologist Geraldo Luís Lino, who authored the 2009 book “The Global Warming Fraud: How a Natural Phenomenon Was Converted into a False World Emergency”)

“The US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP) report is well out of step with the scientific literature, including the very literature it cites… Given the strength of the science on this subject, the USGCRP must have gone to some effort to mischaracterize it by 180 degrees. In areas where I have expertise, the flood example presented here is not unique in the report (e.g., Hurricane Sandy is mentioned 31 times)… A four-year effort by the nation’s top scientists should be expected to produce a public draft report of much higher quality than this. However, given the problematic…treatment of extremes in earlier UNIPCC and US government reports, I’d think that the science community would have its act together by now… ” (Environmental studies professor, Roger Pielke Jr.)

“There are clear cycles during which both temperature and salinity rise and fall. These cycles are related to solar activity…In my opinion and that of our institute, the problems connected to the current stage of warming are being exaggerated. What we are dealing with is not a global warming of the atmosphere or of the oceans.” (Biologist Pavel Makarevich of the Biological Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences)
“We’re not scientifically there yet. Despite what you may have heard in the media, there is nothing like a consensus of scientific opinion that this is a problem. Because there is natural variability in the weather, you cannot statistically know for another 150 years.” (UN-IPCC’s Tom Tripp, a member of the UN-IPCC since 2004 and listed as one of the lead authors and serves as the Director of Technical Services & Development for U.S. Magnesium)

“The energy mankind generates is so small compared to the natural overall energy budget that it simply cannot affect the climate…The planet’s climate is doing its own thing, but we cannot pinpoint significant trends in changes to it because it dates back millions of years while the study of it began only recently. We are children of the Sun; we simply lack data to draw the proper conclusions.” (Russian Scientist Dr. Anatoly Levitin, the head of geomagnetic variations laboratory at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radiowave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences.)

“The temperatures at the North and South Poles are lower now than they were in 1930. The Antarctic Peninsula, the finger of land pointing north towards Argentina (and the equator) has been getting warmer…The other 97 percent of Antarctic has been cooling since the mid-1960s.” (S. Fred Singer, Research Professor, George Mason University, and Dennis Avery, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute and co-authors of “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years”)

“I am ashamed of what climate science has become today. The science community is relying on an inadequate model to blame CO2 and innocent citizens for global warming in order to generate funding and to gain attention. If this is what science has become today, I, as a scientist, am ashamed… Science is too important for our society to be misused in the way it has been done within the Climate Science Community.” (Swedish Climatologist Dr. Hans Jelbring)

“I am an environmentalist — but I strongly disagree with Mr. Gore” (Chemistry Professor Dr. Mary Mumper, the chair of the Chemistry Department at Frostburg State University in Maryland, during her presentation titled “Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming: the Skeptic’s View.”)

“Once again we have misleading climate change pronouncements being based on data errors, data errors detected by non-UN, non-IPCC, non-peer-reviewed external observers…This is exactly what happens when you base your arguments on ‘consensus science’ and not scientific fact.” (Professor Dr. Doug L. Hoffman, a mathematician, computer programmer, and engineer, who worked on environmental models and conducted research in molecular dynamics simulations. Hoffman co-authored the 2009 book, “The Resilient Earth,” described as “bringing a dose of reality to climate science and the global warming debate”)

“The new scientific report directly challenges the conclusions of the UNIPCC Summary that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing dangerous and unprecedented warming.” – Quantitative Economist Kenneth A. Haapala, the past president of the Philosophical Society of Washington, the oldest scientific society in Washington (founded 1871), has reviewed hundreds of reports based on quantitative techniques. Haapala co-authored the report “Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate.”)

“Observations are ambiguous, models are inadequate, and our understanding of the complex interactions of the climate system is incomplete.” (Judith Curry, climatologist and chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology; co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans and co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences and over 140 scientific papers)

“The case for climate fears is blown to smithereens…the whole theory should be destroyed and discarded and the UN conference should be closed.” (UK astrophysicist Piers Corbyn regarding Climategate and what should be done about AGW claims)

“Climatic changes have natural causes according many geological data. I am very glad to sign the U.S. Senate’s report of scientists against the theory of man-made global warming.” (Geology Professor Uberto Crescenti of the University G.d’Annunzio in Italy; past president of the Society of Italian Geologists)

“I am appalled at the state of discord in the field of climate science…There is no observational evidence that the addition of anthropogenic so-called greenhouse gas emissions have caused any temperature perturbations in the atmosphere.” (Atmospheric scientist Dr. George T. Wolff, former member of the EPA’s Science Advisory Board; served on a committee of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and authored more than 90 peer-reviewed studies)

“The sky is not burning, and to claim that it is amounts to journalistic malpractice…the press promotes the global warming alarmists and ignores or minimizes those of us who are skeptical. When it’s a little warmer than normal, the media yells. When it’s cooler, they say nothing.” (Chemist Mark L. Campbell, a professor of chemistry at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, MD, who has published numerous studies in the Journal of the American Chemical Society on topics such as methane)

“The questions are scientific, but the UN answers are political. The global warming debate is hardly about science.” (Computer Modeler and Engineer Allen Simmons, who worked 12 years with NASA’s top climate scientists and wrote computer systems software for the world’s first weather satellites and aided in the development of computer systems for polar orbiting satellites. Simmons co-authored the new book that contends AGW is false, “The Resilient Earth” )

“Belief in climate models compares to ancient astrology.” (Award-winning Japanese Physicist Dr. Kanya Kusano, program director of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology who’s research “focuses on the immaturity of simulation work cited in support of the theory of anthropogenic climate change”)

“Please remain calm: The Earth will heal itself. Climate is beyond our power to control. Earth doesn’t care about governments or their legislation. You can’t find much actual global warming in present-day weather observations. Climate change is a matter of geologic time, something that the earth routinely does on its own without asking anyone’s permission or explaining itself.” (Nobel Prize-Winning Stanford University Physicist Dr. Robert B. Laughlin, who won the Nobel Prize for physics in 1998, and was formerly a research scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.)

“The recent ‘panic’ to control GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and billions of dollars being dedicated for the task has me deeply concerned that the US, and other countries are spending precious global funds to stop global warming, when it is primarily being driven by natural forcing mechanisms.” (Climatologist and Paloeclimate researcher Dr. Diane Douglas, who has authored or edited over 200 technical reports, specialized in the reconstruction of a variety of proxy data and has worked for the Department of Energy and conducted research for the Arizona State Office of Climatology to investigate the Little Ice Age)

“Temperature measurements show that the [climate model-predicted mid-troposphere] hot zone is non-existent. This is more than sufficient to invalidate global climate models and projections made with them!” (UNIPCC Scientist Steven M. Japar, a PhD atmospheric chemist who was part of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (UNIPCC) Second (1995) and Third (2001) Assessment Reports, and has authored 83 peer-reviewed publications and in the areas of climate change, atmospheric chemistry, air pollutions and vehicle emissions)
“[Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration] was exactly the same during the Middle Ages. It didn’t change at all. So there is something that was making the earth warm and cool that modelers still don’t really understand. The problem does not in fact exist, and society should not sacrifice for nothing.” (Will Happer, the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton University)

“The UN-IPCC reports, which have become bibles for bureaucrats and environmentalist fanatics, accuse modern civilization of being responsible for global warming, and repeatedly state that they reflect a `true consensus’ of the scientific community. This statement about consensus is totally false: The assessments, conclusions, and even the working method of the UN-IPCC numerous scientists have harshly criticized. A more accurate description of the current situation would not be consensus, but rather controversy. Science does not progress via a process of consensus, or voting. There was no `consensus’ for Copernicus’s idea, in his time, that the Earth orbited the Sun. Consensus is not needed in science; that is for politicians.” (Zbigniew Jaworowski; multidisciplinary scientist: M.D., Ph.O., and D.Sc.; professor at the Central Laboratory for Radiologi-cal Protection in Warsaw; has studied glacier ice samples from around the world, analyzing traces of heavy metals and radionuclides. Article in “21st Century Science & Technology”: “Ice Core Data Show No Carbon Dioxide Increase”)

“The cause of these global changes is fundamentally due to the Sun and its effect on the Earth as it moves about in its orbit. Not from man-made activities.” (Retired Award Winning NASA Atmospheric Scientist Dr. William W. Vaughan, recipient of the NASA Exceptional Service Medal, a former Division Chief of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center and author more than 100 scientific journal articles, monographs, and papers)

“Unfortunately, Climate Science has become Political Science…It is tragic that some perhaps well-meaning but politically motivated scientists who should know better have whipped up a global frenzy about a phenomena which is statistically questionable at best.” (Award-Winning Princeton University Physicist Dr. Robert H. Austin, who has published 170 scientific papers, was elected a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and is the current Chair of the U.S. Liaison Committee of the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics. Austin is the winner of the 2005 Edgar Lilienfeld Prize of the American Physical Society)

“If global cooling will come soon — scientists will lose trust. And it’s coming.” (Award-winning Japanese Geologist Dr. Shigenori Maruyama, a professor at the Tokyo Institute of Technology’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences who has authored more than 125 scientific publications, was decorated with the Medal of Honor with Purple Ribbon for a major contribution in the field of geology, specializes in the geological evidence of prehistoric climate change. He is far more fearful of a short span of “global cooling,” brought about by the natural processes of our solar system)

“Observe which side resorts to the most vociferous name-calling and you are likely to have identified the side with the weaker argument and they know it. I have never been vilified so for being skeptical of global warming claims.” (Materials and Research Physicist Dr. Charles R. Anderson, a former Department of Navy research physicistwho has published more than 25 scientific papers specializing in spectroscopy, microscopy, thermal analysis, mass spectroscopy, and surface chemistry.)

“The data which is used to date for making the conclusions and predictions on global warming are so rough and primitive, compared to what’s needed, and so unreliable that they are not even worth mentioning by respectful scientists.” (Award-winning Aerospace and Mechanical Engineer Dr. Gregory W. Moore, who has authored or co-authored more than 75 publications, book chapters, and reports, and authored the 2001 Version of the NASA Space Science Technology Plan which included a comprehensive approach to studying the Sun-Earth connection aspect of space-based research.)

“I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that global warming is man-made…Hansen embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming.” (Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist Dr. John S. Theon, a former supervisor of NASA’s James Hansen, and the former Chief of the Climate Processes Research Program at NASA Headquarters and former Chief of the Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch.)

“I am pleased to be considered a ‘denier’ in this cause if this puts me in the class with those who defied the prevailing ‘scientific consensus’ that the earth was flat and that the earth was the not the center of the universe.” (Retired U.S. Air Force (USAF) Meteorologist William “Bill” Lyons, of the USAF’s Global Weather Central at Strategic Air Command.)

“I do not find the supposed scientific consensus among my colleagues… Curiously, it is a feature of man-made global warming that every fact confirms it: rising temperatures or decreasing temperatures. No matter what the weather, some model of global warming offers a watertight explanation.” (Earth Scientist Dr. Javier Cuadros of the UK Natural History Museum, who specializes in Clay Mineralogy and has published more than 30 scientific papers)

“It is amazing to me, as a professional geologist, how many otherwise intelligent people have, as some may say, ‘drunk the Al Gore Kool-Aid’ concerning global climate change.” (Professional Geologist Earl F. Titcomb Jr., who has co-authored numerous analyses of geological and seismological hazards.)

“Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus [which] is the business of politics…What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. And that’s what I’m doing by denying AGW.” (Atmospheric Scientist Timothy R. Minnich, who has more than 30 years experience in the design and management of a wide range of air quality investigations for industry and government, is a past member of the American Meteorological Society and specializes in issues like acid rain and ozone, and has authored or co-authored numerous technical publications and reports.)
“Based on the laws of physics, the effect on temperature of man’s contribution to atmospheric CO2 levels is minuscule and indiscernible from the natural variability caused in large part by changes in solar energy output.” (Atmospheric Scientist Robert L. Scotto, who has more than 30 years air quality consulting experience, served as a manager for an EPA Superfund contract and is co-founder of Minnich and Scotto, Inc., a full-service air quality consulting firm. He also is a past member of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Scotto is a meteorologist who has authored or co-authored numerous technical publications and reports.)

“Whether the ice caps melt, or expand — whatever happens — the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) theorists claim it confirms their theory. A perfect example of a pseudo-science like astrology.” (Mathematical Physicist Dr. Frank Tipler, professor at Tulane University who has authored 58 peer-reviewed publications and five books.)

“My dear colleague [NASA’s James] Hansen, I believe, has finally gone off the deep end…The global warming ‘time bomb,’ ‘disastrous climate changes that spiral dynamically out of humanity’s control.’ These are the words of an apocalyptic prophet — not a rational scientist.” (Chemist Dr. Nicholas Drapela of the faculty of Oregon State University Chemistry Department)

“There is no credible evidence of the current exceptional global warming trumpeted by the UNIPCC…The UNIPCC is no longer behaving as an investigative scientific organization or pretending to be one…Their leaders betrayed the trust of the world community.” (Chemist Dr. Grant Miles, author of numerous scientific publications who was elected to a Fellowship of the Royal Institute of Chemistry, was a member of UK Atomic Energy Authority Chemical Separation Plant Committee.)

“Any reasonable scientific analysis must conclude the basic AGW theory wrong!!” (NASA Scientist Dr. Leonard Weinstein who worked 35 years at the NASA Langley Research Center and finished his career there as a Senior Research Scientist. Weinstein is presently a Senior Research Fellow at the National Institute of Aerospace)

“Climate prediction is complex, with many uncertainties. The AASC recognizes climate prediction is an extremely difficult undertaking. For time scales of a decade or more, understanding the empirical accuracy of such prediction — called ‘verification’ — is simply impossible, because we have to wait a decade or more to assess the accuracy of the forecasts.” (The American Association of State Climatologists.)

“Opponents of global warming are often snidely referred to as ‘climate change deniers’; precisely the opposite is true. Those who question the myth of global warming are passionate believers in climate change — it is the global warmers who deny that climate change is the norm.” (Philip Stott; author of books on climate; he resigned as a member of the Scientific Alliance because he deems it important to be academically independent of all organizations, industry, and green groups — so that he can comment independently of the pressure they place on members to agree with majority opinion)

“The orthodoxy that claims global warming is a fact must be challenged.” (Nigel Calder, scientist and former editor for the New Scientist)

“Global warming is the central tenet of this new belief system in much the same way that the Resurrection is the central tenet of Christianity. Al Gore has taken a role corresponding to that of St Paul in proselytizing the new faith…My skepticism about AGW arises from the fact that as a physicist who has worked in closely related areas, I know how poor the underlying science is. In effect the scientific method has been abandoned in this field.” (Atmospheric Physicist Dr. John Reid, who worked with Australia’s CSIRO’s “Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Division of Oceanography” and worked in surface gravity waves (ocean waves) research)

“Those who call themselves ‘Green planet advocates’ should be arguing for a CO2- fertilized atmosphere, not a CO2-starved atmosphere…Diversity increases when the planet was warm AND had high CO2 atmospheric content…Al Gore’s personal behavior supports a green planet. His enormous energy use with his 4 homes and his bizjet, does indeed help make the planet greener. Kudos, Al for doing your part to save the planet.” (Engineer and aviation/space pioneer, Burt Rutan, who was named “100 most influential people in the world, 2004” by Time Magazine. Newsweek called him “the man responsible for more innovations in modern aviation than any living engineer.”)

“To the satisfaction of a judge in the High Court in London — that there were multiple serious errors not of mere interpretation or `theory’ but of fact in Al Gore’s mawkish sci-fi comedy-horror movie; that the errors all tended to invent problems where they did not exist or exaggerate them where they did; and that, therefore, the movie was political rather than scientific. The judge found in our favor, saying that `The Armageddon scenario that [Gore] depicts is not based on any scientific view. I wrote the scientific testimony that convinced Gore’s allies in the case that they should concede his film was seriously, serially inaccurate. Had they not made that concession, and had they not agreed to circulate 77 pages of corrective guidance, the judge said he would have banned the movie.” (Christopher Monckton, author, virulent critic of the UN-IPCC methods; has begged Albert Gore to debate “global warming”; Gore refuses)

“The most fundamental question is: ‘Can humans manipulate climate predictably?’ Or, more scientifically: ‘Will cutting carbon dioxide emissions at the margin produce a linear, predictable change in climate?’ The answer is ‘No.’ In so complex a coupled, non-linear, chaotic system as climate, not doing something at the margins is as unpredictable as doing something. This is the cautious science; the rest is dogma.” (Philip Stott; author of books on climate; he resigned as a member of the Scientific Alliance because he believed it important to be academically independent of all organizations, industry, and green groups — so that he could comment independently of the pressure they place on members to agree with majority opinion)

“Climate warming caused by man-made greenhouse gases is usually presented as a gloomy catastrophe that will induce the mass extinction of animals and plants, epidemics of contagious and parasitic diseases, droughts and floods, and even invasions of mutated insects resistant to insecticides. Melting glaciers are predicted to raise sea level by 3.67 meters; densely inhabited coastal areas, and great metropolises will flood. There will be mass migrations and a host of other social and environmental effects — always detrimental, never beneficial. That is the propaganda they spread.” (Zbigniew Jaworowski; multidisciplinary scientist: M.D., Ph.O., and D.Sc.; professor at the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw; has studied glacier ice samples from around the world, analyzing traces of heavy metals and radionuclides. Article in “21st Century Science & Technology”: “Ice Core Data Show No Carbon Dioxide Increase”)

“What global warmers claim is climate science is truly dogma. There are no testable hypotheses. Instead there is consensus backing claims that are impossible to disprove. Any and all results support the theory. If the weather is warmer: `We told you so.’ If the weather is cooler: `Weather is not climate.’ More hurricanes: `Just as we said.’ African dust storms: `Ah yes, definitely proof of global warming.’ Excellent scientists refute the science they claim is behind `global warming’: `All the best scientists agree — the debate is over.’ And on and on this charade continues with no end in sight.” (Martin Hellig; multi-disciplinary scientist and mathematician)

POPE RESIGNS – GOOD RIDDANCE

Let the Catholic Church public relations spin begin. This man isn’t resigning because of his age. He has been leading an institution that has been conducting a coverup on par with the Wall Street criminal banks. There is absolutely no difference. Powerful men seeking to retain their wealth, power and control have been covering up the crimes of priests who were fucking little boys for decades. The coverup continues today. This man knew about these crimes and did nothing. He did worse than nothing. He allowed predators to continue their evil deeds. He is as guilty as the perpetrators. He knows he is guilty. That is why he is resigning. Until the Catholic Church is purged of every Cardinal, Bishop and priest that was involved in this cover-up, it will be nothing but a corrupt institution of evil men. This man will have to answer before God for what he allowed to happen to children around the world. All of the apologists for the Catholic Church should be ashamed at their cowardice in allowing these men to continue as their leaders.  

Pope Benedict XVI Announces Resignation At End Of Month

 
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/11/2013 06:36 -0500

A stunning announcement to start the week from the Pope, who just a month ago was the first pontiff to enter twitter, and who just announced his resignation at the end of the month for “health reasons.” “I’m very shaken by this unexpected news,” outgoing Italian PM Mario Monti told reporters today on the sidelines of an event in Milan, as reported by Ansa. A Vatican spokesman confirms Pope Benedict XVI, who is 85 and was one of the oldest new popes when elected, is not resigning because of any difficulties in the papacy. And so Pope Benedict XVI, f/k/a/ Joseph Ratzinger, April 19, 2005 – February 28, 2013.

Full Papal resignation letter below.

Pope Benedict XVI on Monday said he plans on resigning the papal office on February 28th. Below please find his announcement.

Full text of Pope’s declaration

 
 

Dear Brothers,

 

I have convoked you to this Consistory, not only for the three canonizations, but also to communicate to you a decision of great importance for the life of the Church. After having repeatedly examined my conscience before God, I have come to the certainty that my strengths, due to an advanced age, are no longer suited to an adequate exercise of the Petrine ministry. I am well aware that this ministry, due to its essential spiritual nature, must be carried out not only with words and deeds, but no less with prayer and suffering. However, in today’s world, subject to so many rapid changes and shaken by questions of deep relevance for the life of faith, in order to govern the bark of Saint Peter and proclaim the Gospel, both strength of mind and body are necessary, strength which in the last few months, has deteriorated in me to the extent that I have had to recognize my incapacity to adequately fulfill the ministry entrusted to me. For this reason, and well aware of the seriousness of this act, with full freedom I declare that I renounce the ministry of Bishop of Rome, Successor of Saint Peter, entrusted to me by the Cardinals on 19 April 2005, in such a way, that as from 28 February 2013, at 20:00 hours, the See of Rome, the See of Saint Peter, will be vacant and a Conclave to elect the new Supreme Pontiff will have to be convoked by those whose competence it is.

 

Dear Brothers, I thank you most sincerely for all the love and work with which you have supported me in my ministry and I ask pardon for all my defects. And now, let us entrust the Holy Church to the care of Our Supreme Pastor, Our Lord Jesus Christ, and implore his holy Mother Mary, so that she may assist the Cardinal Fathers with her maternal solicitude, in electing a new Supreme Pontiff. With regard to myself, I wish to also devotedly serve the Holy Church of God in the future through a life dedicated to prayer.

 

From the Vatican, 10 February 2013

 

BENEDICTUS PP XVI

49ers – 31 Ravens – 34

As Smokey used to say – this is a mortal lock. My predictive skills regarding sporting events is legendary.

If anyone dare disagree with me, do so at your own peril.

The TBPer with the most accurate prediction will have the privelage of working for one week at LLPOH’s manufacturing plant. Just don’t get sick or wear a thumb ring or call him a capitalist pig or ask him for an extra long lunch hour.

750 LI

Last Saturday I took my youngest son to his weekly guitar lesson at George’s Music in North Wales. It’s located in one of those dying strip malls, with a vacant decaying Hollywood Video store, a dumpy Thai restaurant, a nail salon, and chiropractor. I sit in the car for the 30 minutes reading a book and minding my own business.

I pulled into a parking space and my son went in for his lesson. Being easily distracted and always looking for something to think about, I noticed the car parked directly in front of my Honda Insight. It was a BMW 750 LI. Anyone who has read this site for awhile knows that I’m not a car person. I’ve never spent more than $20,000 for a vehicle. I buy a car, pay it off as soon as possible and drive it as long as I possibly can. I consider a car nothing more than a way to get from point A to point B.

I do know that the higher the number of a BMW, the more expensive the car. I figured the car in front of me was fairly expensive.

I had no idea the rather normal looking vehicle in front of me retails for $90,000. After about fifteen minutes an Asian woman, about my age, and her teenage son arrived and got into the car. My guess is that she might be the owner of the dumpy Thai restaurant. She didn’t appear to be a uber-wealthy.

This is where I have a mental disconnect with a vast swath of America. This country is consumed by the status symbol representation of the vehicle they drive. The MSM and economists judge our economic progress based upon the number of vehicles sold per month. It doesn’t matter that most people essentially rent their vehicle for 3 or 4 years before renting their next one. Many people select a vehicle in order to impress family, friends and coworkers. They may be in debt up to their eyeballs, but if they are driving a BMW, then people think they are a success. The appearance of success is more important than doing what it actually takes to become a success (hard work, saving, investing).

I have trouble comprehending spending $90,000 on a car. I paid $100,000 for my first house. I could buy 4 Honda Insights and have $10,000 left over for the amount this lady spent on the BMW 750 LI. But, we all know it is highly unlikely that she bought the car. The BMW website says the car can be financed for 3.9% for 60 months. That comes to a monthly payment of $1,650. Why pay that, when BMW is offering a 3 year lease for the low low monthly payment of $989? Even this option requires $6,200 cash due at signing. Driving a car like this strikes me as foolish and vain.

The reason I have a hard time understanding the thought process of people who drive these cars is that I refinanced my house this week at 3.25% for 30 years and my monthly payment for a 2,200 square foot single family house in a nice suburban neighborhood is now $689. Renting a car for $300 more per month than it costs to own a home seems a tad excessive in my book.

My Honda Insight has four wheels, four doors, an engine, a stereo and a steering wheel. So does the the BMW 750 LI. My Insight gets 45 mpg. The BMW gets 14 mpg. I have one payment left on my Insight. I paid it off in three years at a 0.9% rate. I will drive it for at least seven more years and pay $0 per month. The money not spent on a car payment will be saved. The nice Asian lady will impress her neighbors while paying $989 for eternity as she is likely caught in perpetual leasing hell.

I will never understand people whose egos and vanity override prudent financial decision making.

HOW THE ENEMY THINKS – REALLY!

By Old Muck About (in a fit of temper!)

 

note: all emphasis made by the author..

_____________________________________________________________________________
Yesterday, I got a “free” copy of Bloomberg’s Business Week magazine.. Of course, it also included a come-on to subscribe, which, after thinking about it 10 milliseconds, I tossed in the trash.

Then I sat down to look it over. It curdled my guts with the initial column titled “Opening Remarks”.  You can’t get much closer to the front of a magazine than that.

In this totally asinine jumble of words, Mario Draghi, the Central Banker for the ECB was praised for saving the Euro by promising to buy unlimited sovereign debt from any and all bankrupt, deadbeat European  countries.

The piece went on to say that the jawboning was perfectly timed so that the “markets” (and I am no longer sure who or what makes up the “markets” anymore) were so impressed by this wonderful, economically sound commitment that they rallied (as they have in our own poor benighted U.S.A.) and, to date, no bankrupt country debt has had to be purchased – yet.

Key word, “yet”.

So, short one sentence that says, “Europe isn’t out of the woods by any means.”, Bloomberg has decided that Draghi and the ECB are just the ticket to eternal solvency by purchasing bankrupt countries debt.

Ring a bell? Kinda like the Fed is doing as I type – buying $85 BILLION dollars of U.S. Treasury debt and various “market based” instruments such as mortgage backed securities, credit default swaps, stocks and who the Hell knows what EACH AND EVERY WEEK 4-EVA……

I’ll give you a hint.. 4-EVA will not last nearly as long as our Fed (and their shills) seems to think it will.

The entire world — including normally sane Switzerland — has initiated a global race to the bottom in the useless and destructive attempt to go deeper in debt and devalue their currency to “grow their economy out of debt” and devalue that currency just a little faster than their trading partners so they can keep some productive capacity going and beggar their neighbor with a little trade.

It’s totally insane and will end very badly. This is not my opinion, by the way, it is mathmatics.

So I threw up all over the first column, tore it out and threw it away, then gingerly turned the page and there lay yet another blurb titled, “How to Resolve the Debt-Ceiling Crises”.

I will spare you the agony of a thorough review and just hit one or two of the low spots contained therein.

First, Bloomberg acknowledges (Ha!) that it is up to Congress to raise the debt ceiling so this country will not default on the $16.4 trillion National Debt. No mention is made of the $200 plus trillion of unfunded debt laying around out there with no way to pay it back except —– the way Bloomberg wants to do it!

Bloomberg next suggests that to eliminate all these pesky problems of “paying” off the deficits and “paying” for ongoing and new spending proposal is as follows:

“Congress should give the White House (i.e. Da Emperor) power over the debt ceiling so the U.S. can avoid a sideshow that threatens the ‘full faith and credit’ pledge made to those who buy U.S. debt”. (Which happens to be mostly the Federal Reserve).

They go on to say:

“So here’s another way to end the fight: tie spending decisions to automatic increases in the debt limit. When Congress passes a budget resolution or spending bill, it should also authorize a concurrent increase in the statutory debt limit to pay for what it’s authorizing.”

“This would have the added benefit of fostering fiscal restraint by linking spending decisions to the Congress that authorizes the money.”

Now please read the above two paragraphs again – only this time, read very slowly for comprehension and keep reading them until you understand that which is being put forth as a “serious” suggestion by a leading establishment magazine on how to solve our debt problems.

These people are fucking idiots less than well informed who, I’m deathly afraid, actually believe what they are proposing is a worthwhile thing to do! Could it be possible that TPTB (and Bloomberger is certainly one of those) is planting this crap in their tame and completely controlled MSM  widely published papers and magazines? Who is their audience? Herds of sheeple so brainless they cannot understand even the simplest economic facts? Surely no one in the financial industry at any level above trashcan emptier would give this garbage any credence. Would they? Are they trying to convince each other with this bullshit?

Perhaps the target audience are politicians and other government drones who truly don’t have a clue of anything economic and must, therefore rely on the likes of this junk magazine and its’ farcical articles to justify their destructive actions.

I’ve only managed to read the first two articles in this piece of shit Bloomberg Business Week and I’m almost afraid to turn to the next page to see what absurdity is regurgitated next.

So I will stop here, allow you to recover from your dose of shock and awe and I will dig further the garbage magazine  after lunch and three or four beers and maybe a nap. Perhaps I can get my mind to cooperate and stop running around in circles screaming, “Idiots, dumbasses, puppets, dog turds!” and other complementary thoughts on the quality of Bloombusted publication and those who actually subscribe to it and believe what’s in it.

MA

Note: The above article was composed by Muck About and The Burning Platform assumes no responsibility for the comments made therein nor the conclusions drawn. Read at your own risk!

IT TAKES A TWO PARENT FAMILY TO RAISE A CHILD

It doesn’t take a village to raise a child. Hillary Clinton is a liberal power hungry control freak. Liberals like to spew gibberish like this because their welfare state policies have destroyed the family unit and they want the all powerful government to assume even more control over our lives to fix the problem they created. The disintegration of America began with LBJ’s War on Poverty entitlement state solutions to a problems we didn’t have. West Philly is a ghetto because black men have abdicated their role of being a father to the government. The spiral continues and the liberal solution is more food stamps, more welfare, more dependency, and less self responsibility. The state will fix all of our societies ills. Just give them some more money.

Family disintegration has hurt America

Monday, January 28,2013

COMMUNITY LEADERS across the U.S. find themselves struggling with rampant tardiness, high truancy rates, high dropout rates, low educational attainment, widespread drug addiction, crime, a degraded work force and more.

It’s as if society is disintegrating.

That’s because many poor American families have.

Some social scientists contend that War on Poverty programs intended to help the poor actually led to what they call “family disintegration” instead.

“The core feature of the U.S. welfare system, and its central problem, is that it subsidizes and thus promotes self-destructive behavior,” the Heritage Foundation said in a 1995 briefing paper. “Specifically, the welfare system promotes: non-work, illegitimacy and divorce.”

The current system “transformed marriage from a legal institution designed to protect and nurture children into an institution that financially penalizes nearly all low-income parents who enter into it,” the foundation said.

In 2011, almost 41 percent of children born in the United States were born to unmarried women.

This has consequences.
“Welfare insidiously creates its own clientele; by undermining work ethic and family structure, the welfare state generates a growing population in ‘need of aid.’”

The Heritage Foundation again: There is “material poverty,” which measures income, and “behavioral poverty,” which “refers to a breakdown in the values and conduct which lead to the formation of healthy families, stable personalities, and self-sufficiency.”

BEHAVIORAL POVERTY “incorporates a cluster of severe social pathologies including: eroded work ethic and dependency, lack of educational aspiration and achievement, inability or unwillingness to control one’s children, increased single parenthood and illegitimacy, criminal activity, and drug and alcohol abuse,” the foundation said.

That’s what U.S. law enforcement, criminal justice, public school and court systems wrestle with every day.

ALL THESE problems would be lessened if society were to address the cause of family disintegration – welfare that is more rewarding than work – rather than the consequences of family breakdown.

Society, it turns out, makes a very poor substitute for strong families.

— The Charleston (W.Va.) Daily Mail

ONLY 2,400 BIG BOX STORES TO CLOSE IN NEXT FEW YEARS

Nothing like a little reality on a Wednesday afternoon. Below is a list of the worst of the worst retailers in the U.S. Hysterically, there are multiple articles about JC Penney this morning and the surge in their stock price yesterday because their dumbass CEO has announced a major change in strategy. Drum roll please. He is going back to having fake sales. The idiots who call themselves financial analysts immediately expounded upon the brilliance of this move. After losing $1 billion of business in one year, this will surely turn the ship back on course.

So solly. The list below, along with the three other failed retailers – Gamestop, Office Max and Radio Shack will be closing thousands of stores in the near future. Just think of all the benefits this will provide. More ghost malls across America. It will do wonders for the Space Available sign manufacturers. Maybe some new retail concepts can gain a foothold – Soup Kitchens R Us, Used Body Parts Thrift Store, or a cafe catering to senior citizens with your choice of cat or dog food. 

It should really test the accounting fraud skills of mall owners, property developers, and our friendly Wall Street bankers as rental income dries up and loan payments on vacant malls become a little challenging. I’m sure Bernanke can convince the FASB to let the banks convert all commercial loans to balloon payment loans with a 50 year term. Therefore, all will be well. No need for cashflow or tenants. I should work for the government.

There should be some great going out of business sales. I’m looking forward to it.

Retailers That Will Close the Most Stores

by | January 29, 2013 at 1:24 PM | Economy, General, Shopping

(AP Photo/Dave Martin)

By Douglas A. McIntyre, Samuel Weigley, Alexander E.M. Hess and Michael B. Sauter, 24/7 Wall St.

It is the time of year again, when America’s largest retailers release those  critical holiday season figures and disclose their annual sales. A review of  these numbers tells us a great deal about how most of the companies will do in  the upcoming year. And while successful retailers in 2012 may add stores this  year, those that have performed very poorly may have to cut locations during  2013 to improve margins or reverse losses.

For many retailers, the sales situation is so bad that it is not a question  of whether they will cut stores, but when and how many. Most recently, Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:  BKS) decided it had too many stores to maintain profits. Its CEO recently  said he plans to close as many as a third of the company’s locations.

Several of America’s largest retailers have been battered for years. Most  have been undermined by a combination of e-commerce competition, often from  Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:  AMZN) and more successful retailers in the same areas. Borders and Circuit  City are two of the best examples of retailers that were destroyed by larger  bricks-and-mortar competition and consumers transitioning to online shopping.  These large, badly damaged retailers could not possibly keep their stores  open.

RELATED: The Most Hated Companies in America

24/7 Wall St. reviewed the weakest large U.S. retailers and picked those that  likely will not be profitable next year if they keep their current location  counts. 24/7 analyzed the retailers’ store counts, recent financial data, online presences, prospects against direct  competitors and precedents set by other large retailers that have downsized by  shuttering locations. We then forecast how many stores each retailer will have  to close this year to sharply increase its prospects financially, even if some  of those location closings do not occur for several years. These forecasts were  based on drops in same-store sales, drops in revenue, a review of direct  competitors, Internet sales and the size of cuts at retailers  in the same sector, if those were available.

5. Barnes & Noble
> Forecast store closings: 190 to  240, per company comments
> Number of U.S. stores: 689
>  One-year stock performance: 8.95%

The move by customers away from print books toward digital books has hurt  Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE:  BKS). Same-store sales during the nine-week holiday season fell by 8.2%  year-over-year. The bookseller has tried to offset the declines in physical book  sales with its Nook e-book reader device, but sales of that device fell 13%  compared to the previous year. The company already has begun cutting down  the number of its stores in the past several years. In a recent interview with  the Wall Street Journal, the head of the retail group at Barnes & Noble said  he expected the company to have just 450 to 500 retail stores in 10 years.

RELATED: The Best- and Worst-Run Cities in America

4. Office Depot
> Forecast store closings: 125 to 150
> Number of U.S. stores: 1,114
> One-year stock  performance: 50.7%

Office Depot Inc.’s (NYSE:  ODP) troubles date back to years of competition against OfficeMax Inc. (NYSE:  OMX) and Staples Inc. (NASDAQ:  SPLS), as well as big-box retailers like Walmart. All three stores were  dealt a blow from reduced business activity during the recession, as well as  increased popularity of online retailers such as Amazon. The company’s North  American division reported an operating loss of $21 million in the third quarter  of 2012. Office Depot plans to relocate or downsize as many as 500 locations and  close at least 20 stores. In the third quarter of 2012, the company closed four  stores in the United States, and same-store sales were down by 4%  year-over-year.

3. J.C. Penney
> Forecast store closings: 300 to 350
> Number of U.S. stores: 1,100
> One-year stock performance: -53.6%

J.C. Penney has gone through a rough stretch recently. In the most recent  quarter, same-store sales fell by 26.1% compared to the year-ago period. Even  Internet sales, which are increasing significantly across the retail sector,  have taken a turn for the worst, falling 37.3% in the third quarter, compared to  the prior year. J.C. Penney sales have taken a turn for the worst since former Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:  AAPL) retail chief Ron Johnson took the helm at the company. Johnson’s plan,  among others, has been to wean customers off of heavy discounting and simply  give customers low prices. However, retail strategists and analysts have argued  that Johnson’s plans have created confusion among customers and has been a  further setback to any potential turnaround.

RELATED: States with the Best and Worst School Systems

2. Sears Holding Corp.
> Forecast store closings: Kmart  175 to 225, Sears 100 to 125
> Number of U.S. stores: 2,118
> One-year stock performance: 8.8%

Both Sears and Kmart have been going down the tubes for a long-time, steadily  losing their middle-income shoppers to retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc.  (NYSE:  WMT) and Target Corp. (NYSE:  TGT). Sears Holdings Corp.’s (NASDAQ:  SHLD) same-store sales have declined for six years. In the most recent year,  same-store sales at the namesake franchise fell by 1.6% and at Kmart by 3.7%,  compared to the year-ago period. The company is already in the process of  downsizing its brick-and-mortar presence. In 2012, Sears announced it was  shutting 172 stores. CEO Lou D’Ambrosio is leaving the company in February, to  be replaced by chairman and hedge-fund manager Edward Lampert. Lampert has  minimal operating experience in retail management.

1. Best Buy
> Forecast store closings: 200 to 250
> Number of U.S. stores:1,056
> One-year stock performance: -36.8%

The holiday season was rough for Best Buy Co. Inc. (NYSE:  BBY). Same-store sales declined by 1.4% year-over-year, with international  stores posting a 6.4% decline while U.S. same-store sales were flat.  Companywide, the electronics retailer reported that holiday revenue had declined  to $12.8 billion from $12.9 billion the year before. In the most recent  completed quarter, during which same-store sales declined 4.3%, the company  reported a loss of $0.04 per share. Best Buy has been plagued by customers “showrooming” — looking at products in the store and then purchasing them online — in recent years. Speculation persists  that former chairman and founder Richard Schulze may buy out the company.

To see the full list, visit 24/7 Wall St.

Jan 29: NATIONAL FREETHINKERS DAY

Today is “National Freethinker’s Day” — also known as Thomas Paine Day, as he was born on this date in 1737. Throughout his life, he wrote many influential books and pamphlets including The Age of Reason, The Rights of Man, and Common Sense. Each of these works brought public attention to key issues and helped establish the philosophical foundation for the American Revolution.

Paine’s writing inspired many people to strive for political, economic, and social advancement. He was also one of the first people to call for an end to slavery and universal human rights.

Freethinkers Day has been celebrated since the 1990s. Its purpose is to educate people about Paine’s work and the importance of freethinking, freedom and liberty.

Here are a few of my favorite quotes from Common Sense and The American Crisis:

Some writers have so confounded society with government, as to leave little or no distinction between them; whereas they are not only different, but have different origins. Society is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness; the former promotes our happiness POSITIVELY by uniting our affections, the latter NEGATIVELY by restraining our vices. The one encourages intercourse, the other creates distinctions. The first a patron, the last a punisher.

O! ye that love mankind! Ye that dare oppose not only tyranny but the tyrant, stand forth! Every spot of the Old World is overrun with oppression. Freedom hath been hunted round the globe. Asia and Africa have long expelled her. Europe regards her like a stranger and England hath given her warning to depart. O! receive the fugitive and prepare in time an asylum for mankind.

It is of the utmost danger to society to make it (religion) a party in political disputes.

There is something exceedingly ridiculous in the composition of monarchy; it first excludes a man from the means of information, yet empowers him to act in cases where the highest judgment is required.

THESE are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman. Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value. Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods; and it would be strange indeed if so celestial an article as FREEDOM should not be highly rated.

I offer nothing more than simple facts, plain arguments, and common sense.

Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must, like men, undergo the fatigue of supporting it.

You can read more from Thomas Paine here.

LINCOLN

We went to see Lincoln this past weekend. I know this is sacrilege to all of the Lincoln haters out there. My view of Abraham Lincoln has changed dramatically since I started this site. I had been brainwashed to believe the myth that Lincoln was a saintly figure who freed the slaves. After reading the arguments of flash and many others on the site, I realized the history taught in our schools is a whitewashed version of the truth. I do not believe Lincoln was evil, as some try to argue. I believe he was a flawed human being, put into an extremely difficult situation, who made decisions which set in motion an ever more powerful Federal government.

I personally thought the movie was outstanding. Spielberg did not glorify Lincoln. He humanized him. It was not a tribute to Lincoln. It was a balanced examination of the year 1865. I consider myself a student of history and a Civil War buff, so I found the movie to be fascinating and informative. Spielberg brought the same brutal gritty realism to Lincoln that he brought to Schindler’s List. From a film-making standpoint, it deserves to be in the running for Best Movie. Daniel Day Lewis should be a lock for Best Actor. He is brilliant and believable as Lincoln. Sally Field as Mary Todd Lincoln and Tommy Lee Jones as Thaddeus Stevens deserve strong consideration for Best Supporting Actors.

Spielberg does not candy coat Lincoln’s actions. The Democrat and Southern view of Lincoln as a killer, law breaker, and tyrant is voiced loudly in the scenes during Congressional debates. The movie is entirely set during the historic year of 1865 and focuses on the passage of the 13th Amendment to abolish slavery. I particularly liked seeing the attitudes, decisions and dynamics of the last year of the Civil War Fourth Turning. It gives me an inkling of what will happen during this current Fourth Turning.

The scene where Lincoln pleads with his cabinet to support his effort to pass the 13th Amendment captures the complexity of Lincoln with all his faults, frailties, and fortitude. The reason he wanted the 13th Amendment passed during the lame duck session of Congress before his 2nd inauguration is because he knew that he had broken the law by freeing slaves with his Emancipation Proclamation. He originated the concept of Executive Orders. He was fairly certain the courts would overturn it. Therefore, he needed the amendment to pass before this could occur. Spielberg doesn’t try to gloss over the fact that Lincoln committed criminal acts by suspending habeus corpus and interpreting the Constitution in any way that helped his cause. Lincoln needed 20 Democrat votes in the House to get his amendment passed. He hired men to bribe the required number of Congressmen. He bribed them with patronage jobs, cash, and threats of retribution.

If you think Congress is corrupt and dysfunctional today, it was just as bad in 1865. Again, this was a Fourth Turning. There are no compromises in a Fourth Turning. The wars are fought to a final decisive conclusion. The leaders during a Fourth Turning will do whatever is required to win. They don’t worry about the means to their ends. This is the slippery slope that Lincoln needed to walk. The actions he took during these years have had far reaching consequences that he didn’t consider at the time. The power of the Federal government and the industrial corporate interests became conjoined and have grown ever larger over time. Future Presidents have used Lincoln’s decisions as the basis for expanding the power of the Executive branch. Many Libertarian minded people despise Lincoln for the actions he took during the Civil War.

I do not believe he was an evil man. I believe he was a decent man put into a terrible situation who made many mistakes, but ultimately kept the country together. Some would argue that he should have let the South form their own country. Would we have been better off? Slavery as an institution was immoral and evil. How long would it have lasted in a seperate Southern nation? Maybe 10 years. How many border wars or national wars would have occurred if there were two Americas? The industrial North would have grown ever more powerful and the South would have been left behind. Attempting to reunite the country was not an evil act.

Lincoln bore a terrible burden during his Presidency. He lost his young son Willie to typohoid fever and this loss practically drove his wife insane. He was elected to office with only 30% of the popular vote. His cabinet thought they were smarter than him and were often uncontrollable. He had radical Republicans on one side and secessionist Democrats on the other. He was the only moderate in Washington DC. The battlefield deaths took a terrible toll on him. He was haunted by the 600,000 dead souls. He was plagued by terrible generals during the 1st few years of the war. He aged terribly over four years. His sorrow bore heavily on his soul.

Abraham Lincoln: Before (1858) and After (1865)

The information which I found most eye opening in the movie was the impact of Thaddeus Stevens on passage of the 13th Amendment. He was a Congressman from my neck of the woods in Montgomery County PA. He was a nasty SOB. His tirades in Congress against his opponents would make him a perfect fit on TBP. He was the leader of the Radical Republicans and the chief proponent of freeing the slaves. He believed they should have the right to vote and were the equals of white people. This was radical thought in 1865. He never married, but his common-law wife was black. He hated Lincoln. He hated the South. He hated Democrats. His hate knew no bounds. But Lincoln needed him to pretend to be moderate in order to get the amendment passed. He sacrificed his ego and rose to the occasion. Without his efforts, the amendment would have never passed.

Most Southerners have always hated Lincoln and still hate him to this day, but his assassination was the worst thing that could have happened to the South. He had no malice towards the South, its leaders, or its people. He wanted a reunion of the states. He did not want retribution, hangings, or reparations. He would have treated the South with respect. Instead he was replaced by Andrew Johnson. Thaddeus Stevens led the effort to make the South pay for their sins. When Johnson did not go along, Stevens led the effort to impeach him. Reconstruction was brutal on the people of the South and the blowback was worse for the poor blacks that made no progress over most of the next century.

I find it fascinating that it was the Republican Party that freed the slaves and fought for their equality, but now 148 years later black people vote 90% for the Democratic Party. The blacks were treated so badly in the South for the 100 years after the Civil War that it was Democrat guilt that brought about the entitlement state with LBJ’s Great Society. Democrats tried to buy the votes of black people with entitlements. What has happened over the last 50 years has been a re-enslavement of black people in the chains of welfare. They are now trapped in urban plantations with no hope of escape. I wonder if they grasp the irony.

I know flash and others will not be changing their opinions about Abraham Lincoln, but I believe that every human being has good and evil within them. We are all terribly flawed and subject to the circumstances we are placed in. We often judge historical figures without putting ourselves in the context of their situation. Having the responsibility thrust upon him, Lincoln did whatever it took to try and preserve the Union. He broke laws, overstepped his Constitutional authority, imprisoned his opponents, ordered hundreds of thousands of young men to their deaths, and ultimately preserved the Union. He was a strong decisive leader. Fourth Turnings always require such a person or persons. We may get the chance to test our own mettle, as this Fourth Turning progresses. I wonder if we will be up to the task.

1865 was one of the most important years in the history of our country. Decades of history occurred in the space of one year. The Battle of Wilmngton NC, the 3rd Battle of Petersburg, passage of 13th Amendment, Lincoln’s 2nd Inauguration, Surrender at Appomattox, and assassination of Lincoln all occurred in the first five months of 1865. Fourth Turnings always build to a crescendo of intensity, disarray, and a decisive dramatic conclusion. Spielberg captures this dynamic in his excellent movie.

I would highly recommend this movie to anyone who wants a better understanding of this important time in history. It does a fine job of distinguishing between the myth of Lincoln and the reality of Lincoln. Even the Lincoln haters might like it.

LLPOH’s Short Story: Through Fault of Their Own

The other day, I made a statement that my experience is that people lose their jobs through “fault of their own”, and that those that say that many people lose their jobs “through no fault of their own” do not know what they are talking about. I believe that this attitude of “through no fault of their own” is reflects a major shift in the attitude of the populous – that people do not want to face reality, and that they need not be responsible for their own actions. To me it is similar to the way teachers can no longer grade papers in red pen for fear of offending the child, and that the child that finished last in the race still gets a ribbon or prize. People are afraid of acknowledging what is true – people do not lose their jobs for no reason. And those that do lose their jobs have played a significant part in the loss of their jobs.

I have literally fired thousands of employees in my career. A great many of these I firings I have done personally, and many more I was a senior decision maker. Following are some random examples of firings I have been involved in. Some of them reflect mass terminations, while others are examples of individuals being fired. I lost no sleep over any of these firings. They all occurred through the fault of the employee:

– 1700 workers who lost their high paying union jobs because they failed to acknowledge that the company was going broke and that they needed to accept a pay reduction if they wanted to keep their jobs. Only after the plant closure was announced did they come to their senses and agree to accept the cuts. But it was too late. The plant closed, all of them lost their jobs, their property values plummeted, as they lived in a small town where almost everyone owed their livelihood to the plant, and the town went into depression.

– The workers who lost their jobs because they missed too much work

– The workers who lost their jobs because they failed to return from vacation on time, “because they felt like a few more days in the sun”

– The workers that lost their jobs because they refused to obey safety regulations

– The guy I fired because he blocked my maintenance men from taping up an electrical wire that had come loose from its mooring, saying that only electricians could do that work. Government inspectors determined I had acted prudently (he reported me after he was fired), and had done the right thing.

– The guy I fired for dumping a carload of trash onto my parking lot

– The guy I fired for abusing a customer who came to pick up goods

– The guy I fired for writing obscenities on a part and then sending it off to a customer

– The guy I fired for throwing parts around in a fit of anger

– The guy I fired for dropping a very expensive piece of equipment when lifting it with a forklift. I had just told him not to do it, and to wait while I organized a proper means of lifting the equipment. He thought he knew best, and caused around $10,000 worth of damage. When asked why he had done it, he simply shrugged. I had him thrown off the property on the spot.

– The guy who took a blow torch to a $2000 bit of equipment because he couldn’t get the chuck loose, destroying the specialist equipment.

– The guy who left the valve open and drained $3000 worth of chemicals on the floor, and almost caused an EPA disaster

– The guy that went to the car race and called in sick.

– The guy I fired for climbing 20 feet up scaffolding (and so jeopardizing me personally should he have fallen and killed himself)

– The people I have fired for abusing and threatening other employees

– The guy I fired who called in sick who was actually running his own business on the side

– The myriad folks I have fired for theft

– The folks I have fired for malingering

– The people I have fired for throwing things in the plant (amazing how often this one has happened)

– The people I have fired for refusal to follow instruction, due to them “knowing better” and their methods “being better”. (If they are going to breach work procedures they best get this right, as mistakes cost me money, and if they get it wrong they get fired. If they approach me or a manager first, then they are OK – I am almost always willing to give an idea a try. )

– The lady I fired for shooting her boyfriend on my site. (I would not have really cared one way or another if she shot him of-site, as he was a cheating scum-bag, but I cannot let employees run around shooting other employees in my plant. I just can’t do it).

– The guy I fired that laid hands on me when he didn’t like his job assignment

– The guy I fired who came in and worked overtime when I told him he was not so allowed. He told me he would be in anyway (what the fuck???) as he needed the overtime and it was his right. I advised him against his decision, but he thought he knew best.

The above were all clear-cut cases of having lost their jobs through “fault of their own”, in my opinion. I have many more examples, but these are the ones that come to mind. Now let’s take a look at those times I have had to reduce the size of the workforce because of drop in sales or as a result of having to make a company viable that was losing money because of a bloated workforce. The reductions in these instances have ranged from a few persons at a time to hundreds. The argument many folks would make about these cases would be that these people lost their jobs through no fault of their own.

But I disagree. Why? Because I know how the people were chosen that lost their jobs. I chose them. And this is the criteria I used:

– Who missed the most work?
– Who is the most skilled?
– Who is the most willing to work overtime when needed?
– Who was the most likely to refuse overtime?
– Why did they refuse overtime?
– Who causes problems with other employees?
– Who is flexible when it comes to asking them to do or learn something new?
– Who is undertaking outside training to improve their skills?
– Who is argumentative when asked to do something?
– Who is happy to train other employees?
– Who reads and writes the best, and can do math?
– Who is the most cross-skilled?
– Who would be the most difficult to replace?
– Who treats the business as it is his or her own?
– Who keeps a neat work area?
– Who obeys all safety regs?
– Etc.

I actually create a matrix, where I rate each of these attributes on a scale of 1 to 5, and weight them according to the value each has to the company. For instance, cross-skilled gets a higher weighting than does who is undertaking outside training. I add up all the points for each employee, and thus create a ranking. If I have 100 people and need to reduce that number by 30, I take my ranking and count up thirty from the bottom and draw a line. Those 30 go.

Notice what I do not do? I do not go by seniority, and experience means very little to me. I care only about what the person can do for the business, and who have shown they will take care of the business.

And so there you have it – the 30 that have it lost their jobs through fault of their own. They did not compete well enough. They did not care for the business well enough. They did not train themselves well enough. They did not come to work often enough. And never have I seen a situation where all 100 were good “employees” – far from it. The thirty in this example would have been poor to marginal employees. And so when push came to shove, through “fault of their own”, they lost their jobs.

There have been a few times when people have indeed lost their jobs through no fault of their own, and I grieved over it, and regret it. And each time it was similar to this: the people were mentally or physically handicapped in some way. I have a history of trying to employ people many would think to be unemployable. I do it because I think it is right. If I have 100 people, there will be a handful of folks employed that are generally considered unemployable. So long as they are willing to give a good effort, I will try to employ them and find valuable work for them – cleaning, low skill, repetitive work, work where I can tolerate minor quality mistakes, etc. But if I need to reduce the workforce down from the 100 people, I cannot absorb the cost of employing these people because they become a greater percentage of the workforce as the size of the workforce drops. And so I am left with no alternative but to let them go in those situations. It is extremely stressful for me, as I know they will not be employed elsewhere. I try to rehire them when opportunity allows, but that has infrequently been possible. These people do lose their jobs through no fault of their own.

There are other reasons I consider that people lose their jobs through their own fault. For instance, they allow unions to destroy their companies. They vote for people that do not support their interests. They buy imported product in preference to local made – when I looked at the make-up of the vehicles driven by my employees last week, which I do often, the imported cars vastly outnumber the locally built. This all puts pressure on their companies, and causes job loss, indirectly at least, and directly at times.

When I interview people for work, even in tough economic times, the numbers that show up inappropriately dressed is appalling. The number that wants to dictate terms of employment to me is astonishing. The number that vastly overestimates their market-value is horrifying. These people remain out of work through “fault of their own”.

The idea that people lose jobs through no fault of their own is wrong, and it is dangerous, and it promotes the idea that people do not need to be responsible for their own actions and decisions. It is make-believe. People must take responsibility for themselves, and the idea that people are unemployed, or lose their jobs through “no fault of their own” serves to tell them that they are not responsible for themselves, but rather that some greater force is at play, and that there was nothing they could have done to change the situation. As I have shown above, out of the thousands of people that I have fired over the years, all but a handful controlled their own destiny. They lost their jobs through “fault of their own”, and I am not going to coddle them by saying otherwise.

QUOTES OF THE DAY – WINTER HAS ARRIVED EDITION

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning 

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“The seasons of time offer no guarantees. For modern societies, no less than for all forms of life, transformative change is discontinuous. For what seems an eternity, history goes nowhere – and then it suddenly flings us forward across some vast chaos that defies any mortal effort to plan our way there. The Fourth Turning will try our souls – and the saecular rhythm tells us that much will depend on how we face up to that trial. The saeculum does not reveal whether the story will have a happy ending, but it does tell us how and when our choices will make a difference.”  – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

 

APPARITIONS IN THE FOG

 

After digesting the opinions of the shills, shysters and scam artists, I am ready to predict that I have no clue what will happen during 2013. The weekend weather last week was a perfect analogy for attempting to forecast the future. The professional highly educated meteorologists predicted sunny warm weather, just as the PhD Wall Street paid economist mouthpieces assure the multitudes 2013 will be the year when zero interest rates and $1.2 trillion deficits will finally lead to sunny economic skies. Instead, the weekend was overcast and damp. As I was writing this article and watching the miraculous Baltimore Ravens comeback against Denver, I received a two minute warning from my wife. I had to pick up my son and his buddies at the Montgomery Mall. As I pulled the car out of the garage, I backed out into fog that was thicker than pea soup. I’ve driven the roads to the Montgomery Mall hundreds of times, but the fog was so thick I couldn’t see ten feet ahead. I drove hesitantly, wondering what might be just over the horizon or what might dart out from a side street. I see 2013 as a year of maneuvering through thick fog with startling apparitions lurking to surprise us and force a deviation in our normal course. As I proceeded cautiously through the murky mist there were few cars on the roads and the strip centers and fast food joints resembled haunted houses and grave yards. I expected to see Dracula, Frankenstein’s monster, and Wolfman panhandling on the corners.

The fog of uncertainty is engulfing the nation, making consumers hesitant to spend and businesses reluctant to hire or invest. It was like being in a commercial real estate horror film, with SPACE AVAILABLE, NOW LEASING, and STORE CLOSING signs startling me everywhere I turned. The trip took a spooky turn as I passed branches of those zombie banks – Bank of America and Citigroup. They don’t even know they’re already dead. I finally arrived at the Mall passing thousands of empty parking spaces with a few cars huddled close to the zombie starring in Night of the Retailing Dead – Sears. In the miasma, the few visitors appeared to be automaton like consumers programmed to shuffle through the mall and buy things they don’t need with money they don’t have. To say the road ahead for this country in 2013 is foggy would be an epic understatement. Let’s hope it doesn’t have a Nightmare on Elm Street like ending.

Virtually all of the mainstream media, Wall Street banks and paid shill economists are in agreement that 2013 will see improvement in employment, housing, retail spending and, of course the only thing that matters to the ruling class, the stock market. Even among the alternative media, there seems to be a consensus that we will continue to muddle through and the day of reckoning is still a few years off. Those who are predicting improvements are either ignorant of history or are being paid to predict improvement, despite the overwhelming evidence of a worsening economic climate. The mainstream media pundits, fulfilling their assigned task of purveying feel good propaganda, use the 10% stock market gain in 2012 as proof of economic recovery. The facts prove otherwise:

  • Real GDP, using a dramatically understated inflation rate, has barely grown by 1% in 2012. Using a true measure of inflation, the GDP was -2% during 2012. Even this pitiful growth was generated by 0% interest rate deals for subprime auto loans through Ally Financial (85% owned by you the taxpayer) and 7 year 0% home furnishing financing deals through GE Capital and the other government subsidized Too Big To Control Wall Street banks. The Federal government chipped in by guaranteeing FHA subsidized 3% down payment loans on houses and handing out billions in loans to students so they can find themselves, keep the unemployment rate down, get drunk, and if they graduate – enter debt servitude for decades.

  • The number of people who have left the workforce since last December (2.2 million) almost matched the number of newly employed (2.4 million), as the labor participation rate has collapsed to a three decade low of 63.6%. The propagandists attempt to peddle this dreadful condition as a function of Baby Boomers retiring. This is obliterated by the fact the 55 to 69 age bracket has added 4 million jobs since Obama became president, while the younger age brackets have lost 3 million jobs. The working age population has grown by 13 million since 2007 and there are 4 million less people employed.

  • Another 1.5 million Americans were forced onto food stamps during 2012, bringing the total increase to 17 million since Obama assumed office. With 47.5 million depending on assistance to feed them, a full 20% of all households in the U.S. are dependent on this program, costing taxpayers $76 billion, versus $34 billion in 2008. Another 4.8 million have joined the ranks of the disabled since 2009, with a dramatic surge when the 99 week unemployment benefits began to run out. These trends are surely signs of recovery.

  • Real average hourly earnings were flat in 2012, and have fallen 1.5% since Obama became president. The average middle class worker is making less than they were forty years ago. Using a true measure of inflation would reveal the true devastation wrought on the middle class. As the things we need (food, energy, shelter, education, healthcare) have grown more expensive and the things we are brainwashed to buy (iGadgets, HDTVs, luxury autos, bling) by the masters of propaganda have been made easily accessible through credit, the middle class has enslaved themselves in chains of debt. The declining average wages since 1973 have forced families to have both spouses work outside the home, with the consequence of more divorces, children raised by strangers, and the proliferation of depressed human beings. The lost real income has been replaced by credit card, auto, mortgage, and student loan debt.

Jan2_Real Wages

The reason Bernanke, Geithner, Obama, Wall Street, corporate titans, and media pundits focus their attention on the stock market is because they are looking out for their fellow 1%ers. The working middle class, once the backbone of this country, own virtually no stocks. The 88% stock market increase since March 2009 hasn’t benefitted the middle class one iota. The Federal Reserve engineered stock market recovery has benefitted moneyed bankers and wealthy corporate executives, the very people who collapsed the worldwide financial system and received the bailouts when they should have gone to jail.

20110410-062035.jpg

Those who continue to tout a non-existent economic recovery have focused on the manufactured stock market and housing recovery, extrapolating those trends without understanding how it has been achieved. A master plan implemented through the collusion of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Executive branch, Wall Street cabal, and corporate media conglomerates has created the illusion of recovery. Make no mistake about it, those in power held clandestine meetings and had covert discussions that will never see the light of day in transcripts or recordings. They developed a strategy to save themselves, their fellow cronies, and the corporate interests that run this country. They threw the middle class, senior citizens, and young people under the bus in their sordid determination to retain their power, wealth and control. Their multi-faceted scheme has been rolled out as follows:

  1. Reduce interest rates to 0% so Wall Street banks could borrow for free and reinvest in Treasuries, therefore earning risk free profits so they could rebuild their non-existent capital. The Wall Street banks also used the free money to generate trading profits using their HFT supercomputers, with only the occasional glitch (JP Morgan London Whale $9 billion slipup, Corzine blowing up his firm and stealing $1.2 billion from ranchers & farmers). The ability to borrow at 0% has spurred these financial institutions to make 0% loans to subprime auto buyers and offer 7 year 0% interest deals on behalf of furniture, electronics, and appliance retailers. This Keynesian solution is supposed to spur demand and generate new jobs. The reality is that Bernanke’s ZIRP has transferred $400 billion of annual interest income from savers and senior citizens to the Wall Street bankers, while setting the table for more massive bad debt write-offs when the millions of subprime borrowers default.
  2. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department forced the FASB to scrap mark to market accounting, allowing the Wall Street banks to fraudulently value their worthless assets. The Federal Reserve than tripled their balance sheet from $900 billion to $2.95 trillion by purchasing almost $1 trillion of toxic mortgage debt from the Wall Street banks at full face value of the debt. The Fed purchased Treasuries to artificially lower mortgage rates and attempt to spur a housing recovery.
  3. The Wall Street banks have purposely manipulated the foreclosure process and restricted the inventory of foreclosures available to purchase. In conjunction with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, large inventories of foreclosed properties have been sold in bulk to connected Wall Street firms at above market prices and positioned as rental properties. The FHA has done their part by guaranteeing 3% down payment mortgages and putting taxpayers on the hook for the billions in losses to come. Fannie and Freddie have already lost $200 billion of taxpayer money since 2008 on behalf of the Wall Street banks. The concerted effort to restrict the supply of homes available for sale resulted in the price of homes sold rising in 2012. Those in power are attempting to resuscitate the millions of heavily indebted underwater home occupiers at the expense of the young and frugal who would buy when home prices dropped to a clearing level. The same people who created the first housing bubble are attempting to re-inflate it as a solution to our economic woes.
  4. Despite the fact that individual investors have pulled billions out of the stock market over the last three years, the stock market has managed to approach all-time highs. This has been the lynchpin of their plan. The sole purpose of every QE initiated by Bernanke has been to elevate the stock market. Academics like Bernanke and Krugman sell the “wealth effect” storyline to the masses as a way to spur consumer spending. The only wealth effect is to shift the wealth of the working middle class to the ruling class who own the stocks and control the markets. As each QE has further enriched the 1%, the inflationary impact on energy, food, and clothing has destroyed the lives of millions in the middle class who own virtually no stocks. The gap between the uber-rich ruling class and the peasants has never been wider.

The master plan has succeeded in delaying the worst of the Crisis, further enriching the oligarchs, further impoverishing the middle class, fanning the flames of revolution across the globe, provoking foreign adversaries, inciting anger among the populace and darkening the mood of the country. Those predicting a return to the peaceful autumn like days of the late 90s reveal their ignorance of history. Winter is here and there are many dark days ahead before Spring is discernible. The linear thinking crowd who hang their hats on never ending progress spurred by technological innovation and a limitless supply of cheap resources are denying reality. Delusion and hope for a better tomorrow is not a strategy. We have entered the 5th year of this ongoing Crisis. Fourth Turnings do not fizzle out; they build to a societal earth shattering crescendo (American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression/WWII). Economic, financial, social and global conditions do not progress during a twenty year Crisis period, driven by the generational configuration that arises once every 80 years. An epic struggle between good and evil, rich and poor, government and governed, young and old, nation and nation, awaits us over the next fifteen years. No matter what happens in 2013, it will be driven by the core elements of this Crisis – Debt, Civic Decay, and Global Disorder.

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1996

Until Debt Do Us Part

The storyline of austerity and deleveraging perpetuated through the mainstream media mouthpieces is unequivocally false, as consumer debt has reached an all-time high of $2.77 trillion, driven by a surge in subprime auto loans and subprime student loans. The reason for the surge in these loans, while credit card debt lingers 15% below the 2008 peak, is because the Federal Government is doling out these loans with your tax dollars. Ally Financial (aka GMAC, aka Ditech) is under the complete control of the Federal Government and doesn’t care about future losses. The taxpayers won’t notice another $1 billion in losses. There are Cadillac Escalades, Silverados and RAM pickups to peddle to morons without money.

Could there be a more subprime borrower than a 20 year old majoring in African literature or a 40 year old former construction worker enrolled at the University of Phoenix with 500,000 other schmoes? The Federal government assumed control over the student loan market in 2009 and has proceeded to blow a new bubble. They have driven tuition higher and enabled millions of barely functioning morons to enter college, where they will not only fail, but also be burdened by un-payable levels of non-dischargeable debt. Now the government solution is to pass those bad debts onto you the taxpayer while encouraging even more debt for students. Here is an assessment of the new “Pay as you Earn” program from your owners:

“(BusinessWeek) We have one example of someone who might look similar to an MBA student. He starts out with a starting salary of $90,000 and by the end of 20 years is making $243,360. Under the old IBR program, he’ll have paid $409,445 by year 25 and be forgiven $23,892 of his loan balance. Under the new IBR repayment plan he’ll pay less than half of that, or $202,299, and be forgiven $208,259 by year 20. The old IBR plan was punitive if you borrowed a lot of money, made you pay more over time and trapped you, so there were serious consequences to doing that. It was a downside and a pretty big risk, which is why you didn’t see people borrowing without regard to how much it will cost. The new plan essentially eliminates any downside or risk for that type of behavior, and cuts payments in half and then some.”

The enslavement of our children in student loan debt and handing them the bill for $200 trillion of unfunded entitlement liabilities will be the spark that ignites the worst part of this Crisis.

Student Loan Projections

Those in power realized very quickly that without continued credit growth, their entire corrupt, repugnant, fiat currency based debt system would implode and they would lose all of their fraudulently acquired wealth. That is why total credit market debt is at an all-time high of $56 trillion, and 350% of GDP. The National Debt of $16.5 trillion is now 103% of GDP, well beyond the Rogoff & Reinhart level of 90% that always leads to economic crisis and turmoil.

As Wall Street bankers acted like lemmings leading up to the 2008 financial collapse the famous July 2007 quote from Charles Prince, CEO of Citigroup, summed it up nicely:

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,”

Now central bankers across the globe are dancing an Irish Jig. Every major central banker in the world is lemmingly following Bernanke’s lead and printing money at hyper-speed. The Europeans have surpassed the Japanese in their quest to become the first casualty in the coming debt collapse. Bernanke, in his quest to not be outdone, has committed to taking his balance sheet to 25% of GDP within the next year. Japan has vowed not to be outdone. The currency debasement race is gathering steam. The devastation, anger, resentment and ultimately war caused by these bankers will engulf the world when it reaches its apocalyptic ending.   

Will the grain of sand that collapses the pile be a debt ceiling crisis as postulated by Strauss & Howe?

“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1996

I don’t think so. The Democrats and Republicans are playing their parts in this theater of the absurd. Neither party has any desire to cut spending, reduce our debt, or secure the future of unborn generations. In 2013, I see the following things happening related to our debt crisis:

  • The debt ceiling will be raised as the toothless Republican Party vows to cut spending next time. The political hacks will create a 3,000 page document of triggers and create a committee to study the issue, with actual measures that slow the growth of annual spending by .000005% starting in 2017.
  • The National Debt will increase by $1.25 trillion and debt to GDP will reach 106% by the end of the fiscal year.
  • The Federal Reserve balance sheet will reach $4 trillion by the end of the year.
  • Consumer debt will reach $2.9 trillion as the Feds accelerate student loans and Ally Financial, along with the other Too Big To Control Wall Street banks, keep pumping out subprime auto loans. By mid-year reported losses on student loans will soar and auto loan delinquencies will show an upturn. This will force a slowdown in consumer debt issuance, exacerbating the recession that started in 2012.
  • The Bakken oil miracle will prove to be nothing more than Wall Street shysters selling a storyline. Daily output will stall at 750,000 barrels per day and the dreams of imminent energy independence will be annihilated by reality, again. The price of oil will average $105 per barrel, as global tensions restrict supply.
  • The home price increases generated through inventory manipulation in 2012 will peter out as 2013 progresses. The market has been flooded by investors. There is very little real demand for new homes. Young households with heavy student loan debt and low paying jobs will continue to rent, since the oligarchs refused to let prices fall to a level that would spur real demand. Mortgage delinquencies will rise as job growth remains stagnant, leading to an increase in foreclosures. Rent prices will flatten as apartment construction and investors flood the market with supply.
  • The disconnect between the stock market and the housing and employment markets will be rectified when the MSM can no longer deny the recession that began in 2012 and will deepen in the first part of 2013. While housing prices languish 30% below their peak levels of 2006, the stock market has prematurely ejaculated back to pre-crisis levels. Declining corporate profits, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing debt defaults will finally result in a 20% decline in the stock market, with a chance for losses greater than 30% if Japan or the EU begin to crumble.

case shiller and stocks

  • Japan is still a bug in search of a windshield. With a debt to GDP ratio of 230%, a population dying off, energy dependence escalating, trade surplus decreasing, an already failed Prime Minister vowing to increase inflation, and rising tensions with China, Japan is a primary candidate to be the first domino to fall in the game of debt chicken. A 2% increase in interest rates would destroy the Japanese economic system.
  • The EU has temporarily delayed the endgame for their failed experiment. Economic conditions in Greece, Spain and Italy worsen by the day with unemployment reaching dangerous revolutionary levels. Pretending countries will pay each other with newly created debt will not solve a debt crisis. They don’t have a liquidity problem. They have a solvency problem. The only people who have been saved by the actions taken so far are bankers and politicians. I believe the crisis will reignite, with interest rates spiking in Spain, Italy and France. The Germans will get fed up with the rest of Europe and the EU will begin to disintegrate.

Civic Decay Accelerates  

“History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The liberal minded Op-Ed writers that decry the incivility of dialogue today once again show their ignorance for or contempt for American history. They call for compromise and coming together. They should see Spielberg’s Lincoln to understand the uncompromising nature of Fourth Turnings and how conflicts are resolved. They should watch documentary film of Dresden, Hiroshima, and Guadalcanal during World War II. Compromise and civility do not compute during a Fourth Turning. It is compromise that has brought us to this point. Avoiding tough decisions and delaying action occur during the Unraveling. We’ve known the entitlement issues confronting our nation for over a decade and chose to do nothing. The time for delay and inaction is long gone. The pressing issues of the day will be resolved through collapse, confrontation and bloodshed. It’s the way it has always been done and the way it shall be. The current conflict over banning guns is just a symptom of a bigger disease. Government, at the behest of the owners, has been steadily assuming more power and control over the everyday lives of citizens who just want to be left to live their lives. Government has used propaganda, fear and misinformation to convince large swaths of the populace to voluntarily sacrifice their freedom and liberty for the promise of safety and security. Warrantless surveillance, imprisonment without charges, molestation by TSA agents, military exercises in cities, drones in our skies, cameras watching our every move, overseas torture, undeclared wars, cyber-attacks on sovereign countries, and now the threat of disarmament of the people have all contributed to the darkening skies above. A harsh winter lies ahead.

Civic decay is being driven by two main thrusts. Lack of jobs and destruction of middle class wealth by the oligarchs is resulting in the anger and dismay overwhelming the country. The chart below reveals the truth about our economy and the fraudulent nature of BLS reported data, skewed to paint a false picture. The 25 to 54 year old age bracket captures Americans in their peak earnings years. In 2007 this age bracket had 83% of its members in the labor force and 100.5 million of them employed. Today, according to the BLS, only 81.4% are in the labor force and there are 6.3 million less employed. The BLS has the gall to report that since 2009, even though the number of employed people in this age bracket has declined by 1 million, the number of unemployed people has dropped by 1.5 million people. To report this drivel is beyond laughable. The horrific labor market situation is confirmed by the fact that despite a 3.6 million person increase in this age demographic since 2000, there are 7.8 million more people not employed.

The reduced earnings and savings of the people in this demographic is having profound and long-lasting impact on our society. Household formation, retirement savings, tax revenues, and self-worth are all negatively impacted. The mood of desperation and anger is materializing in this age bracket. The resentment of these people when they see the well-heeled Wall Street set reaping stock market gains and bonuses while they make do on food stamps, extended unemployment and the charity of friends and family is palpable. More than 100% of the employment gains since 2010 have gone to those over the age of 55, further embittering the 25 to 54 workers. There is boiling anger beneath the thin veneer of civility between Millenials, GenXers, and Boomers. The chasm between the ultra-rich and the masses widens by the day and is leading to a seething animosity. The country has lost 2.4 million construction jobs and 2 million manufacturing jobs since 2007, but we’ve added 250,000 fry cook jobs and 440,000 University of Phoenix jobs stimulated by $500 billion in student loans. The complete transformation of a producing society to a consumption society has been accomplished.

stock market and total jobs

When the average person sees Wall Street bankers not only walk away unscathed from the crisis they aided, abetted and created through their fraudulent inducements and documentation, but be further enriched at taxpayer expense, their hatred and disgust with high financers like Corzine, Dimon and Blankfein burns white hot. The mainstream media propaganda machine tries to convince the average Joe that stock market highs and record corporate profits are beneficial to him, even though the gains and profits have been spurred by zero interest rates, fraudulent accounting and outsourcing their jobs to third world slave labor factories. A critical thinking human being (this rules out 95% of the adult population) might question how corporate profits could surpass pre-collapse levels when the economy has remained stagnant.

Shockingly, the entire profit surge was driven by Wall Street. Accounting entries relieving billions of loan loss reserves, earning hundreds of millions in risk free interest courtesy of Bernanke, and falsely valuing your loan portfolio can do wonders for profits. We’ve added 6.9 million finance jobs in the last 20 years as this industry has sucked the lifeblood out of our nation. A country that allows bankers to syphon off 35% of all the profits in the country without producing any benefits to society is destined to fail, with the dire consequences that follow.

My civic decay expectations for 2013 are as follows:

  • Progressive’s attempt to distract the masses from our worsening economic situation with their assault on the 2nd Amendment will fail. Congress will pass no new restrictions on gun ownership and 2013 will see the highest level of gun sales in history.
  • The deepening recession, higher taxes on small businesses and middle class, along with Obamacare mandates will lead to rising unemployment and rising anger with the failed economic policies of the last four years. Protests and rallies will begin to burgeon.
  • The number of people on food stamps will reach 50 million and the number of people on SSDI will reach 11 million. Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, and Jeff Immelt will compensate themselves to the tune of $100 million. CNBC will proclaim an economic recovery based on these facts.
  • The drought will continue in 2013 resulting in higher food prices, ethanol prices, and shipping costs, as transporting goods on the Mississippi River will become further restricted. The misery index for the average American family will reach new highs.
  • There will be assassination attempts on political and business leaders as retribution for their actions during and after the financial crisis.
  • The revelation of more fraud in the financial sector will result in an outcry from the public for justice. Prosecutions will be pursued by State’s attorney generals, as Holder has been captured by Wall Street.
  • The deepening pension crisis in the states will lead to more state worker layoffs and more confrontation between governors attempting to balance budgets and government worker unions. There will be more municipal bankruptcies.
  • The gun issue will further enflame talk of state secession. The red state/blue state divide will grow ever wider. The MSM will aggravate the divisions with vitriolic propaganda.
  • The government will accelerate their surveillance efforts and renew their attempt to monitor, control, and censor the internet. This will result in increased cyber-attacks on government and corporate computer networks in retaliation.

Global Disorder Spreads

“Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The entire world resembles a powder-keg in a room full of monkeys with matches. As economic conditions worsen around the world the poor, destitute and unemployed increasingly have begun to revolt against their banker masters. Money printing, reporting fraudulent economic data and pretending to make debt payments with newly issued debt does not employ anyone or put food in the mouths of the people. With worldwide unemployment surpassing 200 million, food and energy prices surging, peasants in the Far East treated like slave laborers, politicians stealing from the people to enrich their banker owners, and young people losing hope for a better tomorrow, the likelihood of strikes, protests, armed revolution, and war is high.

The world is about to find out the downside to globalization, as turmoil in Europe or Asia will swiftly impact those in the rest of the world that are interconnected through trade and financial instruments. The trillions of derivatives that link financial institutions across the world will ignite like a string of firecrackers once a spark reaches the fuse. Treaties and alliances between countries will immediately enlarge localized military conflicts into world-wide confrontations. Dwindling supplies of cheap oil and potable water, a changing climate (whether cyclical or human activity based) that is creating droughts, floods and super-storms on a more frequent basis, and religious zealotry set the stage for resource wars and religious wars around the globe and particularly in the Middle East. Fourth Turnings always intensify and ultimately lead to total war, with no compromise and clear winners and losers. The proxy wars that have been waged for the last 60 years will look like kindergarten snack time when the culmination of this Fourth Turning war results in death on a scale that would be considered incomprehensible today. And it will happen within the next fifteen years. The climactic war is still a few years off, but here is what I think will happen in 2013:

  • With new leadership in Japan and China, neither will want to lose face, so early in their new terms. Neither side will back down in their ongoing conflict over islands in the East China Sea. China will shoot down a Japanese aircraft and trade between the countries will halt, leading to further downturns in both of their economies.
  • Worker protests over slave labor conditions in Chinese factories will increase as food price increases hit home on peasants that spend 70% of their pay for food. The new regime will crackdown with brutal measures, but the protests will grow increasingly violent. The economic data showing growth will be discredited by what is happening on the ground. China will come in for a real hard landing. Maybe they can hide the billions of bad debt in some of their vacant cities.
  • Violence and turmoil in Greece will spread to Spain during the early part of the year, with protests and anger spreading to Italy and France later in the year. The EU public relations campaign, built on sandcastles of debt in the sky and false promises of corrupt politicians, will falter by mid-year. Interest rates will begin to spike and the endgame will commence. Greece will depart the EU, with Spain not far behind. The unraveling of debt will plunge all of Europe into depression.
  • Iran will grow increasingly desperate as hyperinflation caused by U.S. economic sanctions provokes the leadership to lash out at its neighbors and unleash cyber-attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities and U.S. corporations. Israel will use the rising tensions as the impetus to finally attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The U.S. will support the attack and Iran will launch missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel in retaliation. The price of oil will spike above $125 per barrel, further deepening the worldwide recession.
  • Syrian President Assad will be ousted and executed by rebels. Syria will fall under the control of Islamic rebels, who will not be friendly to the United States or Israel. Russia will stir up discontent in retaliation for the ouster of their ally.
  • Egypt and Libya will increasingly become Islamic states and will further descend into civil war.
  • The further depletion of the Cantarell oil field will destroy the Mexican economy as it becomes a net energy importer. The drug violence will increase and more illegal immigrants will pour into the U.S. The U.S. will station military troops along the border.
  • Cyber-attacks by China and Iran on government and corporate computer networks will grow increasingly frequent. One or more of these attacks will threaten nuclear power plants, our electrical grid, or the Pentagon.

So now I’m on the record for 2013 and I can be scorned and ridiculed for being such a pessimist when December rolls around and our Ponzi scheme economy hasn’t collapsed. There is no disputing the facts. The economic situation is deteriorating for the average American, the mood of the country is darkening, and the world is awash in debt and turmoil. Every country is attempting to print their way to renewed prosperity. No one wins a race to the bottom. The oligarchs have chosen a path of currency debasement, propping up insolvent banks, propaganda and impoverishing the masses as their preferred course. They attempt to keep the masses distracted with political theater, gun control vitriol, reality TV and iGadgets. What can be said about a society where 10% of the population follows Justin Bieber and Lady Gaga on Twitter and where 50% think the National Debt is a monument in Washington D.C. The country is controlled by evil sycophants, intellectually dishonest toadies and blood sucking leeches. Their lies and deception have held sway for the last four years, but they have only delayed the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. They will not reverse course and believe their intellectual superiority will allow them to retain their control after the collapse.

“Washington has become our Versailles. We are ruled, entertained, and informed by courtiers — and the media has evolved into a class of courtiers. The Democrats, like the Republicans, are mostly courtiers. Our pundits and experts, at least those with prominent public platforms, are courtiers. We are captivated by the hollow stagecraft of political theater as we are ruthlessly stripped of power. It is smoke and mirrors, tricks and con games, and the purpose behind its deception.”– Chris Hedges

Every day more people are realizing the con-job being perpetuated by the owners of this country. Will the tipping point be reached in 2013? I don’t know. But the era of decisiveness and confrontation has arrived. The people will learn there are consequences to our actions and inaction. The existing social order will be swept away. Are you prepared?

“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…” – Winston Churchill

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Committing Financial Adultery – Lurid Examples, Gray Areas and Your Stories

Financial adultery is a newer term you’re probably going to be hearing a lot more about.  This recent survey indicates that HALF, yes, half the people surveyed have committed financial infidelity.  As the economy languishes and people continue to struggle with low-paying jobs and increasingly burdensome amounts of student debt, this notion of couples hiding money secrets from each other is becoming increasingly common.  Just within our circle of family and friends, we’re aware of several stories along the continuum from outright financial adultery or perhaps innocent sins of omission.  I’m curious what your take is on these situations and what stories you have to share.  Since some people we know read my posts, I’ll try to anonomize the accounts as much as possible, but here we go:

Wife Hiding Credit Card Debt on New Cards – So, we have a friend that confided that she’s been paying off credit card bills for various department stores and whatnot with money from her job.  She pays all the bills so he has no idea.  She said he’d be mad if he found out about the credit card bills she’s run up shopping.  The unfortunate thing, I assume, is that since he’s a relatively high earner and probably putting money away from his salary into various accounts, they could probably be using his extra money to just pay off the credit card debt if he only knew about it.  Think about it, rather than earning, say, whatever the stock market does, or 1% in a savings account, his wife’s income is paying probably 20% + on credit card interest.

… continue reading more real-life examples of financial adultery and share yours!

 

Is the US the New France?

People are moving out of France due to ridiculous and draqconian tax rates. The following is a quote from Phil Mickelson relating to his taxes:

“PHIL MICKELSON: Yeah. I’ll probably go into it more next year or next week. But if you add up, if you add up all the federal and you look at the disability and the unemployment and the Social Security and the state, my tax rate’s 62, 63 percent. So I’ve got to make some decisions on what I’m going to do.”

So, for our the US’s most successful people, tax rates can exceed 60%. And what is their response? They look to minimize that rate, as it is absurd. How will they do it? They will move states and countries. They will restructure investments. They will give up owing to the unfairness of it all. They will move to Russia if they can get citizenship (Putin would sign the citizenship papers for well-know US citizens in a heartbeat – what a coup that would be for him). They will move to places offering residency based on investment.

Whatever it is they do, it will have a detrimental effect on the US.