US Real Estate Market

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

The traditional forecast on real estate is always one-dimensional. Homeownership has historically been in the top 5 of surveys about what Americans most want in life. Property values have been rising despite rising high prices combined with higher mortgage rates. There is little sign on the horizon before the ECM peaks in May 2024. Analysts have been confused and caught up in this economic conundrum of the continued economic growth that has defied all their recession predictions.

Normally, housing has been one of the sectors that has been the most sensitive to interest rates. Over the past two years, mortgage rates have risen from less than 3% to more than 7%. That means that the median family today faces mortgage payments that have doubled from roughly 14% of monthly household income in 2020 to nearly 29%  by mid-2023. This is the strongest rise since the economic turn on our ECM when it bottomed in 1985.65.

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Wall Street Is Buying Everyone’s Homes and Driving Up Prices

Via Mercola

Story at-a-glance

  • Investors’ participation in the housing market during the pandemic may have been instrumental in driving up prices and making it harder for the average American to achieve homeownership
  • Investors with large portfolios nearly doubled their share of purchases from September 2020 to September 2021, reducing the supply of available housing — particularly in lower-priced markets — and driving up prices further
  • Blackstone is the largest landlord in the U.S. as well as the largest real estate company worldwide, with a portfolio worth $325 billion
  • BlackRock, one of the largest asset management firms, is another mega firm buying up U.S. houses; if trends continue, some believe Wall Street investors could accomplish feudalism in 15 years
  • Aladdin, which stands for Asset, Liability, Debt, and Derivative Investment Network, is BlackRock’s technology platform, which controls $21 trillion of the global economy and has access to data on the global real estate market

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