History is littered with examples of events that seemed to come out of the blue. After the fact, historians would matter of factly state that it was plainly evident. Two months ago no one predicted that the President of Tunisia for the last 23 years would need to flee the country. The Chinese military appeared to launch a shot across the bow of the President last week. What does it mean? Maybe nothing. Could a military coup take place in China? History is created by individual human beings. Who knows the true politics within the Chinese leadership and military. Humans have egos, ambitions, mental illness and desires. Surprises are common during Fourth Turnings. Keep your eyes open. 

Chinese military blindsides its leader

THE PUBLIC EVENTS and appearances of China’s communist leadership are tightly controlled and scripted with nothing left to chance.

That is why the surprise the Chinese military sprung on President Hu Jintao is both shocking and alarming.

After lengthy on-again, off-again negotiations, Defense Secretary Robert Gates was in Beijing for a meeting with Hu.

Shortly before the meeting, a website linked to the People’s Liberation Army reported that the military had just successfully conducted its first test flight of a new stealth fighter.

When Gates asked about the flight, it was clear that Hu and his top advisers were taken by surprise and that the military had not informed them it was taking place.

This affront had to be doubly embarrassing to Hu because he is coming to Washington for a summit with President Obama.

Communist doctrine is very clear on this point:

THE MILITARY answers to the party, and Hu is both head of the party and head of the military.

But this incident raised concerns with Gates and his delegation that the country’s civilian leadership is losing control of an increasingly assertive military.

China broke off military relations between the two countries last January after U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.

After a cooling-off period, Hu and the other civilian leaders decided to rebuild that relationship and ordered the military to begin negotiations with U.S. counterparts.

HOWEVER, Chinese military leaders have slow-walked those orders, doing the minimum necessary to keep relations alive.

And, indeed, the meeting ended with the military rebuffing Gates’ request for a specific timetable on the progress of talks.

Why the military is doing this now is something of a mystery.

Perhaps it wants a greater voice in diplomatic affairs.

Perhaps the PLA does not want to cooperate with the U.S. because it increasingly sees our military as a rival.

And perhaps it is serving notice on Vice President Xi Jinping, who is scheduled to take over from Hu next year.

Whatever the reason, it is a worrisome development.

— Scripps Howard News Service