“IF I HAD A CITY, IT WOULD LOOK LIKE DETROIT”

If you think Obama and his government flunkies have done miracles with Government Motors since they saved this piece of shit union company with your tax dollars while ignoring bankruptcy law, wait until they are in complete control of your rectal exams. Obama loves to tout his saving of this awful company and the thousands of union drone jobs he was able to keep on the Democrat voting rolls. Who wouldn’t want to buy one of their death traps?

Of course, GM keeps reporting strong sales as they stuff their shitty inventory down the throats of dealers, use the government run ALLY Financial to dole out subprime 7 year 0% auto loans to the Free Shit Army Obama voters, and offer huge money losing discounts that guarantee losses for the company. They are using the tried and true method of selling each car at a loss, but promising to make it up on volume.

This is a joke of a company, reflecting a joke of a president.

The old saying “As GM goes, so goes the country” is truer today than it ever was in the 1950s.

GM Flunks Derek Zoolander School For Bailed Out Companies Who Can’t Build Cars Good, Recalls All New Camaros

Tyler Durden's picture

Another week, another massive GM recall, this time the bailed out company, which clearly is unable to build cars on the “first” attempt, announcing moments ago that it is recalling all current generation Chevvy Camaros “because a driver’s knee can bump the key FOB and cause the key to inadvertently move out of the “run” position, with a corresponding reduction or loss of power.” Supposedly, the issue, which may primarily affect drivers sitting close to the steering column (as opposed to?), was discovered by GM during internal testing following the ignition switch recall earlier this year.

Some truly divine comedy from GM:

Discovering and acting on this issue quickly is an example of the new norm for product safety at GM,” said Jeff Boyer, vice president of GM Global Safety.

One wonders how many wrongful death lawsuits are piling into the GM inbox as a result of GM “acting quickly” on what are now over 16 million recalls in 2014 alone! According to the release, GM is aware of three crashes that resulted in four minor injuries that it believes may be attributed to this condition. Is death considered a minor injury by the product safety team at GM one wonders?

Separately, GM also announced two safety recalls and one non-compliance recall involving a total of 65,121 cars in the U.S. all three of which were reported to the NHTSA on Wednesday, June 11, 2014. Including Canada, Mexico and exports, the total recall population is 69,839.

Here is the full and updated list of cars recalled by GM in 2014 alone:

 

And here is what happens to GM when month after month it confirms it has flunked the Derek Zoolander school for bailed out companies who can’t build cars good: GM has now recalled 70% more cares than it sold in all of 2013, and has recalled 83% more cars in the first 6 months of 2014 than it did in the entire 2008-2013 period!

At least all those votes Obama bought when he bailed out GM were certainly put to good use… just not for building quality cars.

AUTO SALES HAVE PEAKED – LOOK OUT BELOW

Charts always tell me a more truthful story than the written and spoke propaganda doled out by the corporate mainstream media. The bimbos and boobs on CNBC and the rest of what passes for financial journalism in the dying legacy media were ecstatic about the fantastic May auto sales. These mouthpieces for the establishment just regurgitate the lines written for them by their corporate PR departments. They blather about new highs and best sales since 2007. Maybe they could try using their brains and dig a little deeper to examine the underlying foundation of these fantastic sales.

With a cursory investigation they would discover that average loan length reached an all-time high of 66 months and the average amount financed exceeded $27,000. I’ve never spent more than $20,000 on a car, let alone finance $27,000. The percentage of people leasing those “sold” cars also reached an all-time high of 26%. And the cherry on top is the 34% of auto loans going to subprime deadbeats. “Selling” automobiles using easy money and extending loan lengths is the same strategy employed from 2002 through 2008. That worked out so well, I’m sure it will work just as well this time.

These same clueless dolts paraded on TV as financial journalists would do well to try and explain the chart below. When the economy is running on all cylinders the motor vehicle inventory to sales ratio hovers between 2.0 and 2.5. So at this current point in time, with auto sales reaching seven year highs, we have an extreme inventory to sales ratio of 3.0. Therefore, we have 20% to 50% too many automobiles for the current sales level. An inquisitive mind might wonder what happens next? Are GM, Ford and Chrysler going to allow 10 year auto loans and bump up their subprime clientele to 50%? The inventory continues to pile up on dealer lots, even with the extremely loose financing deals being pushed on the delusional American public.

Based upon history, only a fool, a CNBC economics reporter, or a Federal Reserve chairwoman would expect auto sales to accelerate above the current level. Real household incomes are back at 1998 levels, financing terms are at the loosest in history, the economy is contracting, and gas prices are near three year highs. Does that sound like a recipe for accelerating automobile sales? The data I see is telling me we have reached a peak in auto sales. The extremely high inventory levels will lead to major discounting by the auto companies and huge profit declines. These companies will have to cut back on production, further pushing the economy into recession. It’s amazing what you can see when your agenda isn’t to mislead, obfuscate and misinform.

SUSTAINABLE?

Our beloved leaders and their insistence on democratizing the world at the point of a few hundred tomahawk missiles has had predictable consequences. West Texas crude oil hit $109 a barrel today, the highest level since February 2012 when we were saber rattling over the imminent threat of Iran. Gas prices breached $3.90 per gallon then and again in September of 2012 when West Texas crude hit only $99 per barrel. The price at the station near my house has jumped by 8 cents in the last few days to $3.71 per gallon. The national price of $3.62 is headed higher. If and when the missiles start flying, the sky is the limit depending on what Syria, Russia and Iran do. There already appears to be a disconnect, as WTI has surged by 23% since April, but national gas prices are only up 4%. Some of this is due to demand destruction as the high prices and declining economy have led to a collapse in vehicle miles driven and fuel usage.

 

Some of the disconnect may be explained by the price of Brent crude. It is pretty much flat versus last year, while WTI has gone up 12%. The West and Midwest are most influenced by the price of WTI, while the East is impacted by Brent. The price of Brent hit $116 today, up 16% since April. That is close to the one year high reached in February, when U.S. gas prices hit their high for the year of $3.70 per gallon. Last year ended up with the highest average price for a gallon of gas in U.S. history and that was with falling prices from September through December. The average price in 2013 is only slightly lower than 2012 and we are about to experience much higher prices from September through December. Throw in a hurricane or two and we’ll really be partying. Prices in Chicago and Los Angeles are already above $3.90 per gallon.

There is nothing like high energy prices to kick the ass of this economy. We are already in recession, as the consumer is up to their eyeballs in debt and getting gouged by higher taxes, healthcare costs, tuition costs, and food costs. These soaring oil prices will make everything more expensive, as our economy is dependent upon shipping shit by truck. One of the storylines peddled by the MSM has been the fantastic auto recovery. Thank God Obama saved GM!!!

Again we have a disconnect. The number of vehicle miles driven continues to decline. Why would auto sales be soaring if people are driving less and young people can’t afford cars? The chart below makes the point. We’ve got record high energy prices and a decade long decline in miles driven, but somehow we have a booming auto industry. It couldn’t possibly be driven by cheap credit doled out to subprime auto buyers? Obama and his minions at Ally Financial, along with Bennie and his Wall Street cohorts wouldn’t be using those free Bennie bucks to create the illusion of an auto recovery? Would they?

Do you think the auto recovery is sustainable with rising interest rates, rising gas prices, falling stock prices, increasing bad debt on auto loans, and a recession? If you do, I have some prime real estate in Damascus I’d like to sell you.     

CONSUMER REVOLVING CREDIT AT 2005 LEVELS

I find it fascinating that the horrible consumer credit data was released at 3:00 pm by the Federal Reserve and the “journalists” at the Wall Street Journal owned Marketwatch did not feel it warranted a headline on their site. You see the stock market is above 15,000 and they need to convince the sheep that this is great news for them. Therefore, they wouldn’t want any negative news to derail their 15,000 Dow storyline.

The blatant manipulation of our financial markets by Wall Street and their cronies in Washington DC is completely revealed by the data reported today. Revolving credit card debt tells the story. We already know that real wages have been falling since the mid 2000’s. We know there are 2 million less full-time jobs than there were in 2007. We know that payroll tax increases and Obamacare premium increases have sucked the life out of the consumer. Not only is credit card debt lower than it was 6 months ago, but it is lower than it was in May 2005. It isn’t lower because consumers are paying it down. It is lower because they can’t take on any more debt.

So riddle me this. If they aren’t buying Chinese shit with credit cards and their disposable income is declining, how does a country that depends on consumers to generate 71% of its GDP by spending on shit happen to be in an economic recovery?

Government sanctioned fraud, financed by you the taxpayer. Total consumer credit did hit a new all-time high in March. Since 2009, credit card debt has declined by $71 billion. Over this same time frame non-revolving debt has increased by $458 billion. That sure sounds like a disconnect to me. Using your credit card is a personal choice and can be restricted by the credit card issuer through reduced credit lines. Why would consumers be cutting back on credit card debt by 8% and increasing their use of non-revolving credit by 30%?

Easy answer – Obama and his government minions. They have doled out hundreds of billions in student loans to dullards going to the University of Phoenix to keep the unemployment rate on a downward track and they happen to still own 80% of Ally Financial (GMAC, Ditech, Rescap). Obama and his minions have used Ally Financial as their little engine of growth for GM and the rest of the auto industry. While automaker profits continue to fall, Ally Financial is giving auto loans to deadbeat subprime borrowers accounting for 45% of all vehicle sales in the country. 

When has subprime lending created problems in the past? Is there a more subprime borrower than a University of Phoenix dropout or a Cadillac Escalade owner in West Philly? The economy is in the shitter. The average person can’t afford a pot to piss in. The government is using your money to create the illusion of recovery. There will be hundreds of billions in loan writeoffs for this government sanctioned fraud. You will foot the bill, so work harder and pay more taxes. It’s your duty to comrade Obama.  

March Consumer Credit Increase Driven Entirely (And Then Some) By Student And Car Loans

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/07/2013 15:18 -0400

The March consumer credit headline was a disappointment, increasing by just $7.97 billion, on expectations of a $15.6 billion increase, with the February total revised lower to $18.14 billion. So far so bad. It gets worse when one peeks beneath the surface and finds that discretionary consumer credit in the form of credit card and other revolving loans posted its first decline of 2013, dropping by $1.7 billion, the biggest decline since December’s 2.1 billion. So what rose: why debt for purchases of Government Motors and student loans of course, which increased by $9.676 billion in March. In other words: the student bubble keeps getting bigger, more and more GM cars are being bought on subprime credit, while the vast majority of Americans can’t even afford to charge toilet paper purchases as the discretionary deleveraging continues.

In the last year, of the $157 billion in total debt issued, $152.6 billion, or 97.5%, is in the form of non-revolving credit. Consumer credit created? A whopping 2.5% of the total or $4 billion.

Finally, who is the primary source of all this free credit? Why Uncle Sam of course (and all US taxpayers by implication, when the student and second subprime car bubble pops of course).

IF AUTO SALES ARE BOOMING THEN WHY……..

GM and Ford reported “strong” sales for March, up 6.4% and 5.7% respectively. The current annual rate of auto sales has “surged” to 15.2 million. Last year sales rose to 14.5 million from only 12.7 million in 2011. This sure sounds like a tremendous recovery led by great new models from our “saved” GM and wonderful iconic Ford Motors. The MSM was crowing about the results today, except the details tell a different story. GM’s car sales FELL 3% in March. The surge in sales was due to fleet sales going up 12%. It couldn’t possibly be the Federal government buying vehicles, could it? Cadillac sales surged as subprime loans in West Philly to the FSA reached record levels. There were 1,478 Volts sold in the whole country – so there will be 15.2 million vehicles sold in the country and the Obama Volt will account for less than 20,000 of these sales or .0013 of all car sales. Ford car sales FELL 0.2%. Their increase was also driven by fleet sales and truck sales. How dense is the average American? Gasoline prices are above $4.00 per gallon in many cities and they continue to buy low gas mileage trucks and SUVs.

The auto market is completely dependent upon 7 year 0% financing for good credits and subprime lending for 45% of sales and this is all they can achieve?

If sales have been so awesome for the last two years, why are their stocks and their profits in decline? Inquiring minds want to know.

If auto sales were 12.7 million in 2011 and they are pacing at 15.2 million in 2013, why has GM stock dropped from $38 to $28, a 26% decline? I thought Obama saved GM and they were doing awesome. Vehicle sales are up 20% since 2011 and GM still managed to earn $3 billion less in 2012 than they earned in 2011. This doesn’t even take into account the massive channel stuffing that has artificially boosted their sales figures.

It seems that selling vehicles to your dealers and to deadbeats through Ally Financial doesn’t generate profits. But who needs profits when a storyline will do.

 

Chart forGeneral Motors Company (GM)

 

If Ford Motor is doing so well why is their stock at $13 today when it was at $19 in 2011? For the math challenged, that is a 32% drop when auto sales are up 20% since 2011. Is the MSM reporting that Ford sales dropped by $2 billion in 2012 and their net income from operations dropped by $1 billion? Are we really having a strong auto recovery if the two biggest US automakers are making significantly less profit?

Chart forFord Motor Co. (F)

The MSM is not in the truth business. They are in the propaganda business. The storyline of auto recovery is false. The reported sales increases are due to channel stuffing and easy money from Bennie. The 45% of sales from subprime loans will bite the taxpayer in the ass when Ally Financial reports billions in losses over the next few years. You own Ally Financial. So it goes.

 

APPARITIONS IN THE FOG

 

After digesting the opinions of the shills, shysters and scam artists, I am ready to predict that I have no clue what will happen during 2013. The weekend weather last week was a perfect analogy for attempting to forecast the future. The professional highly educated meteorologists predicted sunny warm weather, just as the PhD Wall Street paid economist mouthpieces assure the multitudes 2013 will be the year when zero interest rates and $1.2 trillion deficits will finally lead to sunny economic skies. Instead, the weekend was overcast and damp. As I was writing this article and watching the miraculous Baltimore Ravens comeback against Denver, I received a two minute warning from my wife. I had to pick up my son and his buddies at the Montgomery Mall. As I pulled the car out of the garage, I backed out into fog that was thicker than pea soup. I’ve driven the roads to the Montgomery Mall hundreds of times, but the fog was so thick I couldn’t see ten feet ahead. I drove hesitantly, wondering what might be just over the horizon or what might dart out from a side street. I see 2013 as a year of maneuvering through thick fog with startling apparitions lurking to surprise us and force a deviation in our normal course. As I proceeded cautiously through the murky mist there were few cars on the roads and the strip centers and fast food joints resembled haunted houses and grave yards. I expected to see Dracula, Frankenstein’s monster, and Wolfman panhandling on the corners.

The fog of uncertainty is engulfing the nation, making consumers hesitant to spend and businesses reluctant to hire or invest. It was like being in a commercial real estate horror film, with SPACE AVAILABLE, NOW LEASING, and STORE CLOSING signs startling me everywhere I turned. The trip took a spooky turn as I passed branches of those zombie banks – Bank of America and Citigroup. They don’t even know they’re already dead. I finally arrived at the Mall passing thousands of empty parking spaces with a few cars huddled close to the zombie starring in Night of the Retailing Dead – Sears. In the miasma, the few visitors appeared to be automaton like consumers programmed to shuffle through the mall and buy things they don’t need with money they don’t have. To say the road ahead for this country in 2013 is foggy would be an epic understatement. Let’s hope it doesn’t have a Nightmare on Elm Street like ending.

Virtually all of the mainstream media, Wall Street banks and paid shill economists are in agreement that 2013 will see improvement in employment, housing, retail spending and, of course the only thing that matters to the ruling class, the stock market. Even among the alternative media, there seems to be a consensus that we will continue to muddle through and the day of reckoning is still a few years off. Those who are predicting improvements are either ignorant of history or are being paid to predict improvement, despite the overwhelming evidence of a worsening economic climate. The mainstream media pundits, fulfilling their assigned task of purveying feel good propaganda, use the 10% stock market gain in 2012 as proof of economic recovery. The facts prove otherwise:

  • Real GDP, using a dramatically understated inflation rate, has barely grown by 1% in 2012. Using a true measure of inflation, the GDP was -2% during 2012. Even this pitiful growth was generated by 0% interest rate deals for subprime auto loans through Ally Financial (85% owned by you the taxpayer) and 7 year 0% home furnishing financing deals through GE Capital and the other government subsidized Too Big To Control Wall Street banks. The Federal government chipped in by guaranteeing FHA subsidized 3% down payment loans on houses and handing out billions in loans to students so they can find themselves, keep the unemployment rate down, get drunk, and if they graduate – enter debt servitude for decades.

  • The number of people who have left the workforce since last December (2.2 million) almost matched the number of newly employed (2.4 million), as the labor participation rate has collapsed to a three decade low of 63.6%. The propagandists attempt to peddle this dreadful condition as a function of Baby Boomers retiring. This is obliterated by the fact the 55 to 69 age bracket has added 4 million jobs since Obama became president, while the younger age brackets have lost 3 million jobs. The working age population has grown by 13 million since 2007 and there are 4 million less people employed.

  • Another 1.5 million Americans were forced onto food stamps during 2012, bringing the total increase to 17 million since Obama assumed office. With 47.5 million depending on assistance to feed them, a full 20% of all households in the U.S. are dependent on this program, costing taxpayers $76 billion, versus $34 billion in 2008. Another 4.8 million have joined the ranks of the disabled since 2009, with a dramatic surge when the 99 week unemployment benefits began to run out. These trends are surely signs of recovery.

  • Real average hourly earnings were flat in 2012, and have fallen 1.5% since Obama became president. The average middle class worker is making less than they were forty years ago. Using a true measure of inflation would reveal the true devastation wrought on the middle class. As the things we need (food, energy, shelter, education, healthcare) have grown more expensive and the things we are brainwashed to buy (iGadgets, HDTVs, luxury autos, bling) by the masters of propaganda have been made easily accessible through credit, the middle class has enslaved themselves in chains of debt. The declining average wages since 1973 have forced families to have both spouses work outside the home, with the consequence of more divorces, children raised by strangers, and the proliferation of depressed human beings. The lost real income has been replaced by credit card, auto, mortgage, and student loan debt.

Jan2_Real Wages

The reason Bernanke, Geithner, Obama, Wall Street, corporate titans, and media pundits focus their attention on the stock market is because they are looking out for their fellow 1%ers. The working middle class, once the backbone of this country, own virtually no stocks. The 88% stock market increase since March 2009 hasn’t benefitted the middle class one iota. The Federal Reserve engineered stock market recovery has benefitted moneyed bankers and wealthy corporate executives, the very people who collapsed the worldwide financial system and received the bailouts when they should have gone to jail.

20110410-062035.jpg

Those who continue to tout a non-existent economic recovery have focused on the manufactured stock market and housing recovery, extrapolating those trends without understanding how it has been achieved. A master plan implemented through the collusion of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Executive branch, Wall Street cabal, and corporate media conglomerates has created the illusion of recovery. Make no mistake about it, those in power held clandestine meetings and had covert discussions that will never see the light of day in transcripts or recordings. They developed a strategy to save themselves, their fellow cronies, and the corporate interests that run this country. They threw the middle class, senior citizens, and young people under the bus in their sordid determination to retain their power, wealth and control. Their multi-faceted scheme has been rolled out as follows:

  1. Reduce interest rates to 0% so Wall Street banks could borrow for free and reinvest in Treasuries, therefore earning risk free profits so they could rebuild their non-existent capital. The Wall Street banks also used the free money to generate trading profits using their HFT supercomputers, with only the occasional glitch (JP Morgan London Whale $9 billion slipup, Corzine blowing up his firm and stealing $1.2 billion from ranchers & farmers). The ability to borrow at 0% has spurred these financial institutions to make 0% loans to subprime auto buyers and offer 7 year 0% interest deals on behalf of furniture, electronics, and appliance retailers. This Keynesian solution is supposed to spur demand and generate new jobs. The reality is that Bernanke’s ZIRP has transferred $400 billion of annual interest income from savers and senior citizens to the Wall Street bankers, while setting the table for more massive bad debt write-offs when the millions of subprime borrowers default.
  2. The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department forced the FASB to scrap mark to market accounting, allowing the Wall Street banks to fraudulently value their worthless assets. The Federal Reserve than tripled their balance sheet from $900 billion to $2.95 trillion by purchasing almost $1 trillion of toxic mortgage debt from the Wall Street banks at full face value of the debt. The Fed purchased Treasuries to artificially lower mortgage rates and attempt to spur a housing recovery.
  3. The Wall Street banks have purposely manipulated the foreclosure process and restricted the inventory of foreclosures available to purchase. In conjunction with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, large inventories of foreclosed properties have been sold in bulk to connected Wall Street firms at above market prices and positioned as rental properties. The FHA has done their part by guaranteeing 3% down payment mortgages and putting taxpayers on the hook for the billions in losses to come. Fannie and Freddie have already lost $200 billion of taxpayer money since 2008 on behalf of the Wall Street banks. The concerted effort to restrict the supply of homes available for sale resulted in the price of homes sold rising in 2012. Those in power are attempting to resuscitate the millions of heavily indebted underwater home occupiers at the expense of the young and frugal who would buy when home prices dropped to a clearing level. The same people who created the first housing bubble are attempting to re-inflate it as a solution to our economic woes.
  4. Despite the fact that individual investors have pulled billions out of the stock market over the last three years, the stock market has managed to approach all-time highs. This has been the lynchpin of their plan. The sole purpose of every QE initiated by Bernanke has been to elevate the stock market. Academics like Bernanke and Krugman sell the “wealth effect” storyline to the masses as a way to spur consumer spending. The only wealth effect is to shift the wealth of the working middle class to the ruling class who own the stocks and control the markets. As each QE has further enriched the 1%, the inflationary impact on energy, food, and clothing has destroyed the lives of millions in the middle class who own virtually no stocks. The gap between the uber-rich ruling class and the peasants has never been wider.

The master plan has succeeded in delaying the worst of the Crisis, further enriching the oligarchs, further impoverishing the middle class, fanning the flames of revolution across the globe, provoking foreign adversaries, inciting anger among the populace and darkening the mood of the country. Those predicting a return to the peaceful autumn like days of the late 90s reveal their ignorance of history. Winter is here and there are many dark days ahead before Spring is discernible. The linear thinking crowd who hang their hats on never ending progress spurred by technological innovation and a limitless supply of cheap resources are denying reality. Delusion and hope for a better tomorrow is not a strategy. We have entered the 5th year of this ongoing Crisis. Fourth Turnings do not fizzle out; they build to a societal earth shattering crescendo (American Revolution, Civil War, Great Depression/WWII). Economic, financial, social and global conditions do not progress during a twenty year Crisis period, driven by the generational configuration that arises once every 80 years. An epic struggle between good and evil, rich and poor, government and governed, young and old, nation and nation, awaits us over the next fifteen years. No matter what happens in 2013, it will be driven by the core elements of this Crisis – Debt, Civic Decay, and Global Disorder.

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1996

Until Debt Do Us Part

The storyline of austerity and deleveraging perpetuated through the mainstream media mouthpieces is unequivocally false, as consumer debt has reached an all-time high of $2.77 trillion, driven by a surge in subprime auto loans and subprime student loans. The reason for the surge in these loans, while credit card debt lingers 15% below the 2008 peak, is because the Federal Government is doling out these loans with your tax dollars. Ally Financial (aka GMAC, aka Ditech) is under the complete control of the Federal Government and doesn’t care about future losses. The taxpayers won’t notice another $1 billion in losses. There are Cadillac Escalades, Silverados and RAM pickups to peddle to morons without money.

Could there be a more subprime borrower than a 20 year old majoring in African literature or a 40 year old former construction worker enrolled at the University of Phoenix with 500,000 other schmoes? The Federal government assumed control over the student loan market in 2009 and has proceeded to blow a new bubble. They have driven tuition higher and enabled millions of barely functioning morons to enter college, where they will not only fail, but also be burdened by un-payable levels of non-dischargeable debt. Now the government solution is to pass those bad debts onto you the taxpayer while encouraging even more debt for students. Here is an assessment of the new “Pay as you Earn” program from your owners:

“(BusinessWeek) We have one example of someone who might look similar to an MBA student. He starts out with a starting salary of $90,000 and by the end of 20 years is making $243,360. Under the old IBR program, he’ll have paid $409,445 by year 25 and be forgiven $23,892 of his loan balance. Under the new IBR repayment plan he’ll pay less than half of that, or $202,299, and be forgiven $208,259 by year 20. The old IBR plan was punitive if you borrowed a lot of money, made you pay more over time and trapped you, so there were serious consequences to doing that. It was a downside and a pretty big risk, which is why you didn’t see people borrowing without regard to how much it will cost. The new plan essentially eliminates any downside or risk for that type of behavior, and cuts payments in half and then some.”

The enslavement of our children in student loan debt and handing them the bill for $200 trillion of unfunded entitlement liabilities will be the spark that ignites the worst part of this Crisis.

Student Loan Projections

Those in power realized very quickly that without continued credit growth, their entire corrupt, repugnant, fiat currency based debt system would implode and they would lose all of their fraudulently acquired wealth. That is why total credit market debt is at an all-time high of $56 trillion, and 350% of GDP. The National Debt of $16.5 trillion is now 103% of GDP, well beyond the Rogoff & Reinhart level of 90% that always leads to economic crisis and turmoil.

As Wall Street bankers acted like lemmings leading up to the 2008 financial collapse the famous July 2007 quote from Charles Prince, CEO of Citigroup, summed it up nicely:

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,”

Now central bankers across the globe are dancing an Irish Jig. Every major central banker in the world is lemmingly following Bernanke’s lead and printing money at hyper-speed. The Europeans have surpassed the Japanese in their quest to become the first casualty in the coming debt collapse. Bernanke, in his quest to not be outdone, has committed to taking his balance sheet to 25% of GDP within the next year. Japan has vowed not to be outdone. The currency debasement race is gathering steam. The devastation, anger, resentment and ultimately war caused by these bankers will engulf the world when it reaches its apocalyptic ending.   

Will the grain of sand that collapses the pile be a debt ceiling crisis as postulated by Strauss & Howe?

“An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1996

I don’t think so. The Democrats and Republicans are playing their parts in this theater of the absurd. Neither party has any desire to cut spending, reduce our debt, or secure the future of unborn generations. In 2013, I see the following things happening related to our debt crisis:

  • The debt ceiling will be raised as the toothless Republican Party vows to cut spending next time. The political hacks will create a 3,000 page document of triggers and create a committee to study the issue, with actual measures that slow the growth of annual spending by .000005% starting in 2017.
  • The National Debt will increase by $1.25 trillion and debt to GDP will reach 106% by the end of the fiscal year.
  • The Federal Reserve balance sheet will reach $4 trillion by the end of the year.
  • Consumer debt will reach $2.9 trillion as the Feds accelerate student loans and Ally Financial, along with the other Too Big To Control Wall Street banks, keep pumping out subprime auto loans. By mid-year reported losses on student loans will soar and auto loan delinquencies will show an upturn. This will force a slowdown in consumer debt issuance, exacerbating the recession that started in 2012.
  • The Bakken oil miracle will prove to be nothing more than Wall Street shysters selling a storyline. Daily output will stall at 750,000 barrels per day and the dreams of imminent energy independence will be annihilated by reality, again. The price of oil will average $105 per barrel, as global tensions restrict supply.
  • The home price increases generated through inventory manipulation in 2012 will peter out as 2013 progresses. The market has been flooded by investors. There is very little real demand for new homes. Young households with heavy student loan debt and low paying jobs will continue to rent, since the oligarchs refused to let prices fall to a level that would spur real demand. Mortgage delinquencies will rise as job growth remains stagnant, leading to an increase in foreclosures. Rent prices will flatten as apartment construction and investors flood the market with supply.
  • The disconnect between the stock market and the housing and employment markets will be rectified when the MSM can no longer deny the recession that began in 2012 and will deepen in the first part of 2013. While housing prices languish 30% below their peak levels of 2006, the stock market has prematurely ejaculated back to pre-crisis levels. Declining corporate profits, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing debt defaults will finally result in a 20% decline in the stock market, with a chance for losses greater than 30% if Japan or the EU begin to crumble.

case shiller and stocks

  • Japan is still a bug in search of a windshield. With a debt to GDP ratio of 230%, a population dying off, energy dependence escalating, trade surplus decreasing, an already failed Prime Minister vowing to increase inflation, and rising tensions with China, Japan is a primary candidate to be the first domino to fall in the game of debt chicken. A 2% increase in interest rates would destroy the Japanese economic system.
  • The EU has temporarily delayed the endgame for their failed experiment. Economic conditions in Greece, Spain and Italy worsen by the day with unemployment reaching dangerous revolutionary levels. Pretending countries will pay each other with newly created debt will not solve a debt crisis. They don’t have a liquidity problem. They have a solvency problem. The only people who have been saved by the actions taken so far are bankers and politicians. I believe the crisis will reignite, with interest rates spiking in Spain, Italy and France. The Germans will get fed up with the rest of Europe and the EU will begin to disintegrate.

Civic Decay Accelerates  

“History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The liberal minded Op-Ed writers that decry the incivility of dialogue today once again show their ignorance for or contempt for American history. They call for compromise and coming together. They should see Spielberg’s Lincoln to understand the uncompromising nature of Fourth Turnings and how conflicts are resolved. They should watch documentary film of Dresden, Hiroshima, and Guadalcanal during World War II. Compromise and civility do not compute during a Fourth Turning. It is compromise that has brought us to this point. Avoiding tough decisions and delaying action occur during the Unraveling. We’ve known the entitlement issues confronting our nation for over a decade and chose to do nothing. The time for delay and inaction is long gone. The pressing issues of the day will be resolved through collapse, confrontation and bloodshed. It’s the way it has always been done and the way it shall be. The current conflict over banning guns is just a symptom of a bigger disease. Government, at the behest of the owners, has been steadily assuming more power and control over the everyday lives of citizens who just want to be left to live their lives. Government has used propaganda, fear and misinformation to convince large swaths of the populace to voluntarily sacrifice their freedom and liberty for the promise of safety and security. Warrantless surveillance, imprisonment without charges, molestation by TSA agents, military exercises in cities, drones in our skies, cameras watching our every move, overseas torture, undeclared wars, cyber-attacks on sovereign countries, and now the threat of disarmament of the people have all contributed to the darkening skies above. A harsh winter lies ahead.

Civic decay is being driven by two main thrusts. Lack of jobs and destruction of middle class wealth by the oligarchs is resulting in the anger and dismay overwhelming the country. The chart below reveals the truth about our economy and the fraudulent nature of BLS reported data, skewed to paint a false picture. The 25 to 54 year old age bracket captures Americans in their peak earnings years. In 2007 this age bracket had 83% of its members in the labor force and 100.5 million of them employed. Today, according to the BLS, only 81.4% are in the labor force and there are 6.3 million less employed. The BLS has the gall to report that since 2009, even though the number of employed people in this age bracket has declined by 1 million, the number of unemployed people has dropped by 1.5 million people. To report this drivel is beyond laughable. The horrific labor market situation is confirmed by the fact that despite a 3.6 million person increase in this age demographic since 2000, there are 7.8 million more people not employed.

The reduced earnings and savings of the people in this demographic is having profound and long-lasting impact on our society. Household formation, retirement savings, tax revenues, and self-worth are all negatively impacted. The mood of desperation and anger is materializing in this age bracket. The resentment of these people when they see the well-heeled Wall Street set reaping stock market gains and bonuses while they make do on food stamps, extended unemployment and the charity of friends and family is palpable. More than 100% of the employment gains since 2010 have gone to those over the age of 55, further embittering the 25 to 54 workers. There is boiling anger beneath the thin veneer of civility between Millenials, GenXers, and Boomers. The chasm between the ultra-rich and the masses widens by the day and is leading to a seething animosity. The country has lost 2.4 million construction jobs and 2 million manufacturing jobs since 2007, but we’ve added 250,000 fry cook jobs and 440,000 University of Phoenix jobs stimulated by $500 billion in student loans. The complete transformation of a producing society to a consumption society has been accomplished.

stock market and total jobs

When the average person sees Wall Street bankers not only walk away unscathed from the crisis they aided, abetted and created through their fraudulent inducements and documentation, but be further enriched at taxpayer expense, their hatred and disgust with high financers like Corzine, Dimon and Blankfein burns white hot. The mainstream media propaganda machine tries to convince the average Joe that stock market highs and record corporate profits are beneficial to him, even though the gains and profits have been spurred by zero interest rates, fraudulent accounting and outsourcing their jobs to third world slave labor factories. A critical thinking human being (this rules out 95% of the adult population) might question how corporate profits could surpass pre-collapse levels when the economy has remained stagnant.

Shockingly, the entire profit surge was driven by Wall Street. Accounting entries relieving billions of loan loss reserves, earning hundreds of millions in risk free interest courtesy of Bernanke, and falsely valuing your loan portfolio can do wonders for profits. We’ve added 6.9 million finance jobs in the last 20 years as this industry has sucked the lifeblood out of our nation. A country that allows bankers to syphon off 35% of all the profits in the country without producing any benefits to society is destined to fail, with the dire consequences that follow.

My civic decay expectations for 2013 are as follows:

  • Progressive’s attempt to distract the masses from our worsening economic situation with their assault on the 2nd Amendment will fail. Congress will pass no new restrictions on gun ownership and 2013 will see the highest level of gun sales in history.
  • The deepening recession, higher taxes on small businesses and middle class, along with Obamacare mandates will lead to rising unemployment and rising anger with the failed economic policies of the last four years. Protests and rallies will begin to burgeon.
  • The number of people on food stamps will reach 50 million and the number of people on SSDI will reach 11 million. Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein, and Jeff Immelt will compensate themselves to the tune of $100 million. CNBC will proclaim an economic recovery based on these facts.
  • The drought will continue in 2013 resulting in higher food prices, ethanol prices, and shipping costs, as transporting goods on the Mississippi River will become further restricted. The misery index for the average American family will reach new highs.
  • There will be assassination attempts on political and business leaders as retribution for their actions during and after the financial crisis.
  • The revelation of more fraud in the financial sector will result in an outcry from the public for justice. Prosecutions will be pursued by State’s attorney generals, as Holder has been captured by Wall Street.
  • The deepening pension crisis in the states will lead to more state worker layoffs and more confrontation between governors attempting to balance budgets and government worker unions. There will be more municipal bankruptcies.
  • The gun issue will further enflame talk of state secession. The red state/blue state divide will grow ever wider. The MSM will aggravate the divisions with vitriolic propaganda.
  • The government will accelerate their surveillance efforts and renew their attempt to monitor, control, and censor the internet. This will result in increased cyber-attacks on government and corporate computer networks in retaliation.

Global Disorder Spreads

“Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The entire world resembles a powder-keg in a room full of monkeys with matches. As economic conditions worsen around the world the poor, destitute and unemployed increasingly have begun to revolt against their banker masters. Money printing, reporting fraudulent economic data and pretending to make debt payments with newly issued debt does not employ anyone or put food in the mouths of the people. With worldwide unemployment surpassing 200 million, food and energy prices surging, peasants in the Far East treated like slave laborers, politicians stealing from the people to enrich their banker owners, and young people losing hope for a better tomorrow, the likelihood of strikes, protests, armed revolution, and war is high.

The world is about to find out the downside to globalization, as turmoil in Europe or Asia will swiftly impact those in the rest of the world that are interconnected through trade and financial instruments. The trillions of derivatives that link financial institutions across the world will ignite like a string of firecrackers once a spark reaches the fuse. Treaties and alliances between countries will immediately enlarge localized military conflicts into world-wide confrontations. Dwindling supplies of cheap oil and potable water, a changing climate (whether cyclical or human activity based) that is creating droughts, floods and super-storms on a more frequent basis, and religious zealotry set the stage for resource wars and religious wars around the globe and particularly in the Middle East. Fourth Turnings always intensify and ultimately lead to total war, with no compromise and clear winners and losers. The proxy wars that have been waged for the last 60 years will look like kindergarten snack time when the culmination of this Fourth Turning war results in death on a scale that would be considered incomprehensible today. And it will happen within the next fifteen years. The climactic war is still a few years off, but here is what I think will happen in 2013:

  • With new leadership in Japan and China, neither will want to lose face, so early in their new terms. Neither side will back down in their ongoing conflict over islands in the East China Sea. China will shoot down a Japanese aircraft and trade between the countries will halt, leading to further downturns in both of their economies.
  • Worker protests over slave labor conditions in Chinese factories will increase as food price increases hit home on peasants that spend 70% of their pay for food. The new regime will crackdown with brutal measures, but the protests will grow increasingly violent. The economic data showing growth will be discredited by what is happening on the ground. China will come in for a real hard landing. Maybe they can hide the billions of bad debt in some of their vacant cities.
  • Violence and turmoil in Greece will spread to Spain during the early part of the year, with protests and anger spreading to Italy and France later in the year. The EU public relations campaign, built on sandcastles of debt in the sky and false promises of corrupt politicians, will falter by mid-year. Interest rates will begin to spike and the endgame will commence. Greece will depart the EU, with Spain not far behind. The unraveling of debt will plunge all of Europe into depression.
  • Iran will grow increasingly desperate as hyperinflation caused by U.S. economic sanctions provokes the leadership to lash out at its neighbors and unleash cyber-attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities and U.S. corporations. Israel will use the rising tensions as the impetus to finally attack Iranian nuclear facilities. The U.S. will support the attack and Iran will launch missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel in retaliation. The price of oil will spike above $125 per barrel, further deepening the worldwide recession.
  • Syrian President Assad will be ousted and executed by rebels. Syria will fall under the control of Islamic rebels, who will not be friendly to the United States or Israel. Russia will stir up discontent in retaliation for the ouster of their ally.
  • Egypt and Libya will increasingly become Islamic states and will further descend into civil war.
  • The further depletion of the Cantarell oil field will destroy the Mexican economy as it becomes a net energy importer. The drug violence will increase and more illegal immigrants will pour into the U.S. The U.S. will station military troops along the border.
  • Cyber-attacks by China and Iran on government and corporate computer networks will grow increasingly frequent. One or more of these attacks will threaten nuclear power plants, our electrical grid, or the Pentagon.

So now I’m on the record for 2013 and I can be scorned and ridiculed for being such a pessimist when December rolls around and our Ponzi scheme economy hasn’t collapsed. There is no disputing the facts. The economic situation is deteriorating for the average American, the mood of the country is darkening, and the world is awash in debt and turmoil. Every country is attempting to print their way to renewed prosperity. No one wins a race to the bottom. The oligarchs have chosen a path of currency debasement, propping up insolvent banks, propaganda and impoverishing the masses as their preferred course. They attempt to keep the masses distracted with political theater, gun control vitriol, reality TV and iGadgets. What can be said about a society where 10% of the population follows Justin Bieber and Lady Gaga on Twitter and where 50% think the National Debt is a monument in Washington D.C. The country is controlled by evil sycophants, intellectually dishonest toadies and blood sucking leeches. Their lies and deception have held sway for the last four years, but they have only delayed the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. They will not reverse course and believe their intellectual superiority will allow them to retain their control after the collapse.

“Washington has become our Versailles. We are ruled, entertained, and informed by courtiers — and the media has evolved into a class of courtiers. The Democrats, like the Republicans, are mostly courtiers. Our pundits and experts, at least those with prominent public platforms, are courtiers. We are captivated by the hollow stagecraft of political theater as we are ruthlessly stripped of power. It is smoke and mirrors, tricks and con games, and the purpose behind its deception.”Chris Hedges

Every day more people are realizing the con-job being perpetuated by the owners of this country. Will the tipping point be reached in 2013? I don’t know. But the era of decisiveness and confrontation has arrived. The people will learn there are consequences to our actions and inaction. The existing social order will be swept away. Are you prepared?

The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…” – Winston Churchill

survival seed vault

FOR A FEW DOLLARS MORE – PART ONE

Where life had no value, death, sometimes, had its price. That is why the bounty killers appeared. For a Few Dollars More

 

“Tell me, isn’t a sheriff supposed to be courageous, loyal and, above all, honest?” – Man with No Name – For a Few Dollars More

Whenever I get an idea for an article I plan to keep it short and sweet. But it never seems to work out that way. Once I start typing, the articles tend to grow exponentially. It happened again with my attempt to make sense of how the United States of America managed to screw our finances up so badly, that an epic collapse is within view to people with their eyes open to facts and the truth. You don’t end up in the predicament we find ourselves in today due to a couple minor mistakes over a short time frame. It took thousands of horrible choices, colossal doses of delusion, a heaping of stupidity, and a mountain of denial over decades to put us on the brink of economic collapse. An unholy amalgamation of demographics, fiat currency, debt, taxes, power and greed have led us to this point. Next we experience collapse, revolution and ultimately, retribution.

Since I’ve identified four major rationales for our impending doom, I’ve decided to write a four part series that can be read in small doses, rather than one enormous article. I don’t want anyone to miss tonight’s episode of Dancing With the Stars, get distracted from the Royal Wedding preparations, or skip the best reality TV show ever – Ben Bernanke’s press conference, while reading an 8,000 word article about the end of America. The four part series will have a Clint Eastwood theme. For a Few Dollars More will address the Baby Boomer impact on America’s decline. A Fistful of Dollars will examine how the creation of the Federal Reserve and the income tax in 1913 set us on a path to ruin. Outlaw Josey Wales will scrutinize the looting of America by a small group of powerful, connected, super rich men lurking in the shadows, but pulling the strings on our puppet politicians. Lastly, Unforgiven  will detail the impending collapse of our economic system and the retribution that will be handed out to the guilty.

Over the last few weeks there seems to be consensus among many financial bloggers, whose credibility is far more trustworthy than the corporate mainstream media, that the country is teetering on the verge of economic collapse due to the complete capture of the government, financial, regulatory, and media by a small group of oligarchs. They have also been described as the super rich, plutarchs, ruling elite, and scum sucking leeches. The bloggers that I have the utmost respect for, including Jesse, Charles Hugh Smith, Mike Shedlock, Yves Smith and Gonzalo Lira have all come to the logical conclusion the horrific economic situation of the country is a direct result of the greed, corruption, fraud, and plundering by a powerful connected group of rich financiers operating without fear of being brought to justice by the authorities.

While pondering the ruminations of these dedicated truth tellers, I was reminded of the Clint Eastwood Spaghetti Western For a Few Dollars More. The quotes above are representative of living in the USA today. There are supposed to be courageous, loyal and honest sheriffs that protect the citizens from crime, corruption and evil doers. But, just as we saw in the Old West of Clint Eastwood movies, the sheriffs are always corrupt and bought off by the evil cattle barons. In a world where life has no value and you can’t rely on law enforcement to protect your interests, the citizens eventually will need to turn to bounty hunters to take care of the bad guys. The bounty hunters of truth reside on the internet. They reside at Zero Hedge, Jesse’s Café Americain, Of Two Minds, Mish, Chris Martenson, and dozens of other anarchist websites. When you can’t trust your government, your bankers, your church, your media, or mega-corporate CEOs, you need to seek the truth where it can be found. The insightful bloggers who courageously print the truth on a daily basis have unanimously concluded that a small band of powerful elite have accumulated undue influence and control over this country, having brought it to the verge of economic collapse. How did this happen? Who is responsible? Why were they permitted to gain this power?

Boomers Come of Age

“If those in charge of our society – politicians, corporate executives, and owners of press and television – can dominate our ideas, they will be secure in their power. They will not need soldiers patrolling the streets. We will control ourselves.” – Howard Zinn

Whenever I direct any blame for our economic woes towards the Baby Boom generation they react as expected. They blame the GI Generation for creating the welfare state. They declare that Generation X and the Millenials are just as greedy and self centered as the Boomers. Boomers are great at blaming, ridiculing and acting pompously, while taking no responsibility for their actions and more importantly their inaction. This generation cannot avoid their responsibility for the state of affairs. They like to take credit for their stand against the Vietnam War and their protests against the man during the 1960s. They don’t like to take credit for turning into materialistic, greedy, selfish, short-term focused bastards. When a generation of 76 million people decides to go in a particular direction, the country will go in that direction. While blaming FDR and the GIs who stormed the beaches of Normandy for creating the unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities, the Boomers have been voting since the mid-1960s and have been in control of corporate America and the levers of government since the early 1980s.

The U.S. Congress is dominated by Baby Boomers today and has been dominated by this generation since the 1990s. The Senate has 60 Boomers out of 100, while the House of Representatives has 254 Boomers out of 435 members. Boomers occupied the White House from 1992 through 2008. They have had the political power and control of the agenda for two decades and have failed miserably. Rather than do what was best for the country for the long-term, they took the expedient, easy, vote getting route. Promise more than you could ever deliver and let future generations worry about the consequences. Not one true noble statesman has arisen from this generation of myopic, self centered “Me Generation” political hacks. Even as the country nears the precipice, they continue to address the great issues of the day with talking points supplied by other Baby Boomer PR maggots from Park Avenue. These weasels care not for the country, but worry only about poll numbers and the next election cycle. An apathetic public, dominated by the Baby Boom generation, has the attention span of a gnat. As long as they can make the lease payment on their Escalade, use one of their 15 credit cards at the Mall, be entertained by 600 cable TV stations, play with the latest iSomething, live in their McMansion for two years without making a mortgage payment and consume massive quantities of fast food, then any thoughts of future generations or civic duty are unnecessary. Live for today has been the rallying cry for the Boomer generation. Pot was their drug during the 1960s. Debt has been their drug since 1980.

The drug (debt) dealer for the Baby Boom generation has been the Wall Street mega-banks, coincidentally, run by Boomers. The entire corrupt financial industry is being run by Boomers. The CEOs, CFOs, and the thousands of Harvard MBA VPs that created the fraudulent derivative scheme to bilk billions from clueless municipalities, pension funds and American taxpayers are all Boomers. It is no coincidence that the great debt delusion began in the early 1980’s. Jim Kunstler captured the essence of Boomer transformation:

“The Baby Boomers came back from the land, clipped their pony tails, discovered venture capital, real estate investment trusts, securitization of “consumer” debt, and the Hamptons. Greed was good.”

The Boomer CEO hall of scam has been built on the brilliance and financial acumen of Lloyd (god’s work) Blankfein, Charlie (keep dancing) Prince, Jamie (friend of Obama) Dimon, and the king of the Boomers, Hank (the system is sound) Paulson. These mainstays of crony capitalism led the Boomer charge of greed, greed and more greed. The Baby Boomer generation has been the proverbial pig in a python working its way through the decades as presented below. By 1985, Boomers had entered the work force in full force with the entire generation between the ages of 25 and 42. It will be a great day when the python craps this pig of a generation out the other end.

It is not a coincidence the National Debt growth has far outstripped GDP growth since 1980. Boomers had been spoiled their whole lives and felt they deserved the goodies today while passing the bill to future generations. They voted for politicians who promised them more benefits, more programs, more subsidies, more tax breaks, more military adventures, and more pleasure. And this was “paid for” with more debt. Thirty five years of government debt declining as a percentage of GDP was reversed over the next thirty years starting in 1980, pushing it past the 90% tipping point in the last year. The country is over-indebted to the tune of $9 trillion on a current basis and $100 trillion on a long term accrual basis.

There is no better picture of Boomer decadence and myopia than an historical view of the national savings rate. The parents of the Boomers understood the meaning of sacrifice and investing in the future of the country. During World War II they bought US War Bonds to support the cause. From 1950 through 1985, the savings rate consistently ranged between 7% and 12%. Americans had this odd notion that if you saved more than you spent, you actually got ahead in life. Excess savings were used to invest in new plants and equipment that were used to produce goods and employ more Americans. By 1985, the Boomers considered these notions as quaint and old fashioned. The savings rate methodically declined until it went negative in 2006, just prior to the worldwide financial conflagration. Our inspirational Boomer president George (Mission Accomplished) Bush while waging two wars of choice, asked for the ultimate sacrifice from the Boomers. He solemnly urged them to buy a GM SUV with $0 down and 0% interest for 7 years, so we could defeat the terrorists. The Boomers who ran GMAC were more than happy to make loans to people with no income so they could “purchase” a $40,000 ostentatious gas guzzling hog. They were doing their patriotic duty for the good of the nation. It brings a tear to my eye just thinking about it.

The Boomers not only heeded George’s call, but they did him proud by buying 8,000 sq ft McMansions with $0 down and negative amortization ARMs. Luckily, the executives at the mortgage origination sweatshops were Boomers. They found no good reason to verify income or assets before loaning someone $600,000, because they knew their fellow Boomers at the rating agencies would rate the bundles of these toxic shit loans as AAA so the Boomers on Wall Street could sell them to greater fools. GMAC’s exemplary subprime mortgage arm – Ditech, did a bang up job getting migrant Mexican workers into $450,000 homes in California’s inland empire. As the tsunami of bad debt swept toward shore, delusional Boomers across the land borrowed $500 billion against the inflated value of their McMansions and installed granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, home theatres, elegant patios, Olympic sized pools, and with the excess home equity, leased a BMW or two. The first devastating tsunami wave hit in 2008 and wiped out billions in faux Boomer wealth. Instead of learning a brutal lesson and reverting back to saving and frugality, the “never say sacrifice” Boomers ventured out to where the waves had subsided looking for more trinkets and treasures.

Tsunami Warning by Mobile Phone

The next tsunami wave is on its way. The delusional Boomers will be surprised again.

The Boomer persona has been formed over the last five decades and the country will deal with the consequences for decades to come. The clean cut Beaver Cleaver children of the 1950s turned into the pot smoking Dobie Gillis of the 1960’s, then into the slimy Gordon Gekkos of the 1980s and ultimately into the eternal wealth seeking Gollums of today.

 

  

This Boomer debt orgy over the last thirty years would have made Caligula blush. Of course, none of this could have happened without the Creature from Jekyll Island. I will address this aspect of our fate in Fistful of Dollars – Part Two.

Now for the righteous indignation from the Boomers that think I have unfairly lumped them all together as one. Their reactions are predictable. Even though they have had the means, the power and the time to reverse the course of USS Titanic, they plowed full steam ahead into the abyss. The GI Generation is dead. Generation X doesn’t hold the reins of power. The Boomer generation needs to look in the mirror to recognize who is to blame.  I’m sure there are a few good Boomers out there somewhere, but as a generation they have failed this country and our unborn generations miserably.

SUBPRIME AUTO NATION

Have you heard the news? Auto sales are booming. Total sales for the month of August were 1,285,202 vehicles, according to Autodata Corp, the highest monthly sales figure for any August since 2007, when 1.47 million autos were sold in the United States. Year to date auto sales have totaled 9.7 million and are on track to reach 14.5 million. Between 2006 and 2007, auto sales ranged between 16 million and 18 million. They crashed below 10 million in 2009. The Keynesians running our government have pulled out all the stops to restart this engine of consumer spending. First they wasted $3 billion of taxpayer funds on the Cash for Clunkers debacle. Almost 700,000 perfectly good cars were destroyed in order to keep union workers happy.  This Keynesian brain fart distorted the used car market for two years, raising prices for cars needed by the working poor. After that miserable failure, they realized the true secret to selling vehicles is to give them away to anyone that can scratch an X on a loan document, with 0% interest for 60 months, financed by Federal government controlled banking interests. Add in some massive channel stuffing and presto!!! – You’ve got an auto sales boom.

General Motors sales are up 3.7% over 2011. Ford Motors sales are up 6% over 2011. The Obama administration continues to tout their saving of the U.S. auto industry with their bailout in 2009 that saved unions and screwed bondholders. If this strong auto recovery is not an illusion, how do you explain the two charts below? General Motors stock is down 42% since 2011. The highly proclaimed success story called Ford Motors has seen their stock collapse by 50% since 2011. This is surely a sign of tremendous success and anticipation of soaring profits for these bastions of American manufacturing dominance.

Chart forGeneral Motors Company (GM)

Chart forFord Motor Co. (F)

This is America, land of the delusional and home of the vain. The appearance of success is more important than actual success. The corporate mainstream media dutifully reports the surge in auto sales is surely a sign the economy is recovering and the consumer has finished deleveraging and is ready to spend again. The government propaganda machine proclaims the surging auto sales are due to their wise and forward thinking policies (like the Chevy Volt). Luckily for them, there are millions of gullible Americans who believe the storyline and are easily convinced that driving a $30,000 new car, financed over seven years, makes them a success. The decades of Bernaysian marketing propaganda has worked its magic on the government educated, math challenged citizenry. There are only two things that matter to the non-thinking auto buyer (renter) – the monthly payment and what the next door neighbor and his coworkers will think. Buying a fuel efficient car they can afford, paying it off in three or four years, and driving it for ten years, while saving the monthly car payment, is what a practical, rational thinking person would do. The fact that only 20% of the 9.7 million vehicles sold this year have been small cars and the average sales price of new cars sold is now $31,000 proves Americans are still living in a delusional fantasyland of cheap gas and monthly payments for eternity.

As gas prices surpass $4 per gallon across the country, somehow 4.7 million of the 9.7 million vehicles sold in 2012 have been pickups, vans, crossovers or SUVs. Three of the top eight selling vehicles are pickups. Luxury vehicle sales are booming, with Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Land Rover and Audi showing double digit percentage sales gains over 2011. We’ve entered a recession, gas prices are approaching all-time highs, job growth is pitiful, and Americans continue to buy luxury gas guzzlers on credit. This will surely end well.

The average payment on a new car in 2012 is $461. For used cars, the average monthly payment is $346. Today, 77% of new car purchases are financed. About half of all used vehicles involve financing. Of those cars financed, 89% are through a loan vs. 11% with a lease. A critical thinking person might wonder how a country with 4 million less employed people than we had in 2007, median household net worth down 35%, and real wages lower than they were in 2007, could be experiencing an auto boom. The answer is a government/corporate/banker/media effort to funnel taxpayer funds to deadbeats across the land in a fruitless attempt to create a facade of recovery. Our governing elite are convinced that more debt peddled to the masses is the path to recovery for an economy that imploded due to excessive debt peddled to the masses in the first place. Essentially, it comes down to who benefits from the peddling of debt. It isn’t the masses, as they become enslaved in the chains of debt and monthly payments in perpetuity. Debt peddling benefits Wall Street bankers, politicians, and mega-corporations selling crap to the masses.

The storyline being sold to the vegetative dupes (watching Honey Boo Boo) that occupy space in this delusional paradise we call America, by the corporate media, is that consumers have deleveraged and are ready to resume their “normal” pattern of spending money they don’t have on stuff they don’t need. Of course, the facts always seem to get in the way of a good yarn. Consumers have never deleveraged. Consumer credit outstanding is at an all-time high of $2.58 trillion. The decline from $2.55 trillion in 2008 to $2.4 trillion in 2010 was NOT deleveraging. It was the Wall Street Too Big To Fail banks taking a big dump on the American taxpayers. They passed their bad debts to you through TARP, the Federal Reserve buying their toxic “assets”, and ZIRP. 

Revolving credit (credit card) debt peaked at just above $1 trillion in 2008 and “declined” to $850 billion during 2010.  The media storyline is that you buckled down and paid off your credit cards, therefore depressing consumer spending and creating a recession. Sounds convincing except for the fact that it’s a load of bullshit. The Federal Reserve’s own data proves it to be false. Your friendly Wall Street banks have written off $213 billion of credit card debt since 2008 and passed the bill to the few remaining taxpayers in this country. For the math challenged, this means that consumers have actually INCREASED their credit card debt by $68 billion since 2008. The bad news for our Chinese crap peddling mega-retailers is that the significantly poorer average middle class American household is using their credit cards to pay their property tax bills, IRS bills, and utility bills in order to survive.  

Credit Card Charge-off in Dollars 2005 – 2011 — Not Seasonally Adjusted:

Year Dollar Amount
2011 $46,017,459,671
2010 $75,090,106,350
2009 $83,179,901,000
2008 $53,506,353,600
2007 $38,149,440,000
2006 $32,111,934,400
2005 $40,634,994,400
Year & Quarter Dollar Amount
2012Q1 $8,772,385,443

 

The category of debt that barely budged in the 2009 collapse was non-revolving credit. It stayed in the $1.5 trillion range in 2009 and has since surged to over $1.7 trillion in 2012. What could possibly have made this debt skyrocket by $200 billion when the GDP has only grown by 12% over the same time frame? You guessed it – your corporate fascist friends in Washington DC and on Wall Street. Non-revolving debt consists of auto loan debt of $663 billion and student loan debt of approximately $1 trillion. Student loan debt has shot up by $300 billion since 2008. This student loan debt is being distributed, like candy by a pedophile, from the Federal government in an effort to artificially hold down the unemployment rate.

Approximately $500 billion of the student loan debt is held directly by the Federal government, up from $100 billion in 2008. The Feds guarantee the majority of the remaining student loan debt. Can you think of a more subprime borrower than a 40 year old former construction worker getting a liberal arts degree from the University of Phoenix, sitting at his computer in his underwear scratching his balls, and paying with a $10,000 Federal student loan from you? This fraudulent attempt to obscure the true employment situation will end in tears for the borrowers and the American taxpayer. It’s tough to make a loan payment without a job. The student loan bailout is just over the horizon and will cost you at least $300 billion. Delinquencies are already off the charts.

        

When has offering low interest debt in ample portions to people without jobs, income or assets ever backfired before? The bankers and politicians that control this country seem to be a one-trick pony. They will never admit that debt is the problem and reducing it the solution. The real solution would make them poorer, so their solution is to pour gasoline on the fire with more debt at lower interest rates to more people. The addict will keep injecting more poison into their system until sudden death. The bankers and politicians know we are a car-centric society and appeal to our vanity and poor math skills to keep the game going.     

During the first quarter of this year, total U.S. car loans totaled $52.5 billion. That’s 49% higher than the same period in 2009. Also during the first quarter, the average amount financed on new vehicles rose by $589, to $25,995, and for used cars by $411, to $17,050. Furthermore, buyers are stretching out payments for longer terms: The average length of new- and used-vehicle loans jumped a full month during the first three months of this year, to 64 and 59 months, respectively. The surge in auto sales is being completely driven by doling out more loans for a longer time frame to deadbeat borrowers. Subprime auto loans now make up 45% of all car loans and the vast majority of all used car loans.  They have even created a category called Deep Subprime. Borrowers classified as “deep subprime” (i.e. those with Vantage scores below 600) account for 10.7% of auto loans. You can also classify them as loans that will never be repaid.

 

Two thirds of all car sales are for used cars, so the fact that 37% of all new cars are being sold to subprime borrowers is exacerbated by the ridiculous lending practices for used cars. The fine folks at Zero Hedge have provided the outrageous data and a chart that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt what awaits the American taxpayer – another bailout. Zero Hedge has already revealed the GM fake recovery by detailing their channel stuffing over the last two years. Now they’ve dug up more dirt on why car sales are surging. What could possibly go wrong providing loans for more than the value of the asset to people with a history of not paying their debts?

  • Subprime borrowers received 56.46% of loans on used cars in the quarter, up from 52.70% a year earlier.
  • The average loan-to-value on new cars was 109.55%
  • The average used car loan-to-value ratio rose to 126.62%
  • 77% of Subprime Auto Loans are for a period greater than five years

It’s amazing how many cars you can sell when you aren’t worried about getting paid. This is the beauty of a fiat currency, a printing press, and a taxpayer available to pick up the tab after the drunken party gets out of hand. The chart below provides the details of our superhighway to disaster. The percentage of used car loans to prime borrowers is now at an all-time low, while the percentage of loans to subprime borrowers is near all-time highs reached just prior to the 2008 crash. When lenders cared about being paid back in the early 2000’s, they rarely made loans longer than five years. Today, more than 77% of all subprime used car loans are longer than five years and average FICO scores are now well below 600. Just to clarify – if your FICO score is below 600 – YOU ARE A DEADBEAT.

When you start to connect the dots, things that didn’t seem to make sense begin to crystallize. This is all part of the master plan concocted by Bernanke, Geithner, Obama and the Wall Street Shysters. The auto section of my local paper now makes sense. Offers of 7 year financing at 0% interest and monthly lease offers of $150 to $200 for brand new cars now are understandable. The newer model BMWs, Cadillac Escalades, Volvos, and Jaguars I see parked in front of the low income luxury gated townhome community in West Philadelphia now makes sense. A pizza delivery guy driving a new Lexus is now explainable.   

The master plan is fairly simple. The Federal Reserve lends money to the Wall Street banks for 0% interest. These banks then turn around and provide credit card debt at 13% interest, new & used car loans to prime borrowers at 5% interest, and new & used car loans to subprime borrowers at 16%. When you can borrow for free, you can take a chance that a significant number of your borrowers will default. Essentially, Ben Bernanke is screwing the prudent savers and senior citizens by paying them 0.15% on their savings in order to subsidize the bankers that destroyed the country so they can make auto loans to the same people who took out the zero percent down interest only no doc mortgage loans in 2005. In addition, Wall Street knows the Bernanke Put is still in place. If and when these subprime loans explode in their faces again, Bennie, Timmy and Obamaney will come to the rescue with your tax dollars. Its heads you lose, tails you lose, again.    

 The chart below is like a who’s who of TARP recipients. The top 20 auto lenders control half the market. And look at the leader of the pack. Our friends at Ally Bank are the market share leader. You remember Ally Bank – they conveniently changed their name from GMAC (also known as Ditech – biggest subprime mortgage lender) after losing billions and being bailed out by you. They still owe you $11 billion and are 85% owned by the U.S. Treasury. No conflict of interest there. You have the biggest auto lender on earth controlled by the Obama administration. Do you think they have an incentive to make as many loans as humanly possible to help Obama create the illusion of an auto recovery? The only downside is for the American taxpayer when we have to eat billions more in Ally/GMAC losses. This insolvent excuse for a lending institution has been extremely aggressive in the subprime auto lending market and has forced the other wannabes – Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Capital One and Bank of America – to lower their lending standards. Does this scenario ring a bell? 

top_20_car_lenders_market_share

We’ve become a subprime auto nation, addicted to easy debt, living lives of hope, delusion and minimum monthly payments. Storylines about economic recovery, fraudulent government statistics showing lower unemployment, feel good propaganda from the corporate mainstream media, and a return to easy money debt fueled spending does not constitute a real recovery. Until the bad debt is purged from the system and saving takes precedence over spending, the country will stagger and ultimately fall under the weight of its immense debt. We are lost in a blizzard of lies. This subprime fueled engine of recovery will propel the country into the same canyon of reality we entered in 2008. The crack up boom approaches.

 

survival seed vault

 

THE AUTO RECOVERY IS A TAXPAYER FINANCED SCAM

The two stories below tell me all I need to know about the great auto recovery. I bet you didn’t know that GM and the rest of the automakers record their sales when the vehicles are shipped to their dealers. Zero Hedge has been all over the channel stuffing being done by Government Motors for the last two years as they now have 60% more vehicles sitting on dealer lots than two years ago, even though sales are up less than 20%. And now we see that Obama is doing his union bretheren a favor and buying GM cars like they’re going out of style. You the American taxpayer are subsidizing GM, just as you took the $50 billion hit when Obama screwed bondholders using your money.

Lastly, we know for a fact that Ally Financial (aka GMAC) is still 85% owned by you. It is dishing out subprime auto loans like SNAP cards in West Philly. Moody’s is already warning about the coming disastrous losses that will be experienced by YOU the taxpayer when all these crap loans go bad. But that doesn’t matter to Obama. There is an election to be won. The losses to the American taxpayer will come in 2013 and 2014. Don’t expect the MSM to fill you in on the government scam. They are part of the scam, as their ad revenue is dependent on car ads. What a great country.

 

GM Finds Creative New Ways To “Stuff Channels”, Get Backdoor Taxpayer Bailouts

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durdenon 07/06/2012 12:53 -0400

Zero Hedge readers know that we have long followed channel stuffing trends at GM, whose month-end dealer inventory hit a record (for the post-reorg company which is completely different from the pre-bankruptcy entity) of 713K cars stuck in various dealer “channels” at the end of March 2012, and since then has been stagnant at just about 700K, with the most recent June number coming at 701K, an increase of 6K over May. It would be great to assume that the company has given up on cheap ways to cheat investors and the taxpaying public into believing it is doing better. It would also be wrong. As it turns out, GM has merely turned to more backdoor methods of stuffing channels, and getting money from its biggest shareholders, which still happens to be Joe Sixpack (and “superpriority” labor unions of course) by way of the US Treasury, with 32% of the common stock.

The NLPC explains:

 
 

It looks like General Motors will be throwing everything in but the kitchen sink to help fluff its second quarter earnings numbers. Taxpayers continue to help with the cause as President Obama campaigns on the “success” of GM following the manipulated bankruptcy process that cost taxpayers $50 billion and another $45 billion of tax credits gifted to GM to help protect powerful UAW interests. We now learn that government purchases of GM vehicles rose a whopping 79% in June.

As a reminder, this is how GM’s general channel stuffing looked like for all its vehicles:

However there is a rather important data subset here:

 
 

According to a Bloomberg report, “GM said inventory of its full-size pickups, which will be refreshed next year, climbed to 238,194 at the end of June, a 135 days supply, up from 116 days at the end of May.” 135 days supply is huge, the accepted norm is a 60 day supply. The trick here is that GM records revenue when vehicles go into dealership inventories, not when actually sold to consumers.

This is how pickup truck channel stuffing looked in the period that the company has released the data, or since December 2011. Not pretty.

And while we all know by now that the tried and true mechanism to channel stuff is a staple when it comes to fooling the buyside as to its business efficacy, the fact that its biggest shareholder has become a key marginal client of GM should make one’s head spin at the Ponziness of the transaction:

 
 

The government’s increased spending on GM vehicle purchases presents yet another conflict of interest as Treasury refuses to sell taxpayers’ stake in GM and Obama campaigns on the auto bailouts. It does not appear that any members of Congress (from either party) are questioning the increased spending. Also ignored was the Department of Energy’s gifting of $2.7 million of taxpayer money to GM to reduce energy consumption in its door manufacturing process by 50%. The DOE seems to be one of the main conduits to funnel taxpayer funds to cronies of the Administration. The $2.7 million contribution to GM comes after additional millions of dollars were spent by the DOE on advisory fees paid to legal firms that helped smooth the way for the GM bankruptcy process (as reported here); another move that went unquestioned.

And there is more:

 
 

GM claimed that sales increases did not rely on incentive spending, which appeared to remain in check, but one analyst during GM’s sales conference call questioned whether the company’s “stair step” incentive spending was accurately depicted. This incentive spending kicks in after dealerships report final sales figures for the month and may be yet another deceptive way for GM to fudge its numbers. Not mentioned was GM card rewards programs that do not get counted as incentive spending.

Why is GM forced to succumb to such increasingly more deceptive practices? Why simple presidential election politics of course: when a failed company like GM is destined to symbolize the “success” of one’s administration, there aren’t many straws one can latch on to.

 
 

The upcoming earnings announcement by GM is, politically, the most important to date. The pressure is on Government Motors to appear financially strong as this may be the last earnings report before November elections and sets the stage for how “successful” GM is. One of GM’s past tricks to help fudge earnings numbers has been to stuff truck inventory channels. Old habits die hard at GM. 

 

The article goes on to quote Kelley Blue Book’s Alec Gutierrez who stated “They’re (GM) likely going to have a relatively high days supply of trucks moving forward and they’re already placing some pretty aggressive cash incentives on the hood. It’s going to eat into their profit margins…”

 

GM’s earnings announcement comes on August 2nd. The main headwinds will be weak European operations and growing pension liabilities. The headline number for earnings should be viewed skeptically and an eye kept on the share price reaction after the conference call. Expect Government Motors to put a positive spin on its financial health as the stakes are now at their highest. The long-term health of GM remains in question and the true financial picture may not surface until well after voters decide who will be running our country. Eventually we will see just how successful GM really is.

At the end of the day, all of this is noise. If China retaliates in kind to the recen escalation by Obama vis-a-vis alleged Chinese deceptive trade practices, the GM will soon be able to kiss half of its top line, and who knows how much of its margin and bottom line goodbye. Because when half of your sales go to the one country which America’s non-existent (and unionized) manufacturing base loves to hate, the last thing you want is to bite the hand the pays the bills. Yet this is precisely what is going on as the politics of this country become so misguided that in the pursuit of a few extra votes, the administration is willing to sacrifice what little clout and momentum the recently bankrupted automaker may have generated.

In the meantime, looks for channel stuffing and direct government purchases to soar to unseen levels in the weeks and months heading into the presidential election as GM (and its 40% stock price drop since the IPO) will certainly be a key debate point between the Democrats and the GOP.

 

Moody’s: Hot US subprime auto lending market has parallels to the 1990s

 
Global Credit Research – 28 Jun 2012

 New York, June 28, 2012 — The subprime auto lending market in the US is developing a resemblance to its condition in the early- and mid-1990s, when overheated competition among lenders led to poor underwriting that drove up losses, says Moody’s Investors Service in a new report. As in that earlier period, capital is pouring into the sector and the issuance of subprime auto asset-backed securities (ABS) is booming.

“It is too early to predict whether today’s subprime lending market will deteriorate as it did in the 1990s, but the early similarities between then and now suggest that losses will climb if competition intensifies,” says Moody’s Vice President Peter McNally, author of the report “US Subprime Auto Lending Market Harkens Back to 1990s.”

Over the last two years, because of the sector’s profitability, a large amount of private equity investment has gone into the subprime auto lenders, many of which are relatively small, specialty finance companies, says Moody’s.

Moody’s says the interest of investors from outside the subprime auto market niche and the potential for increased competition carry the risk that losses could increase if a race for profits and market share lowers underwriting standards. The growth in the market can lead to capacity issues, says Moody’s McNally. “When losses rise quickly, inexperienced lenders have trouble servicing a loan portfolio that requires more attention.”

In the 1990s, the number of small lenders boomed, leading to intense competition for loans that in turn led to weak underwriting and high losses on securitized loans. Net losses in subprime auto ABS, according to Moody’s, jumped from under 3% in early 1995 to over 10% in December 1997.

For the past several years subprime auto loan performance has been strong, with the net loss rate currently below 4%. However, the credit quality of pools securitized in 2011 and 2012 indicate that credit has loosened since 2010, says Moody’s.

Issuance of subprime auto ABS is on pace this year to exceed the robust issuance of 2011, which comprised 24 deals, totaling $14.3 billion.

Moody’s notes several differences between today’ s market and the overheated market of the 1990s.

One credit positive for today’s market is that most lenders no longer practice gain on sale accounting, whereby lenders capitalized securitization gains and credited them to equity, which made their balance sheets look stronger than they were.

Another is that the market is not yet overcrowded with new lenders. Moody’s counts 13 active securitizers at the moment, compared with 34 issuers in 1997.

An important credit negative is that transactions are no longer backed by monoline guarantors. These bond insurers absorbed losses on transactions that would have otherwise defaulted in the 1990s and took over transaction servicing from failing lenders.

PONDERING THOSE “GREAT” AUTO SALES

You gotta love these stories. The lady in this article sums it up perfectly:

“Even I wouldn’t make a loan to me at this point.”

But that isn’t stopping Ally Financial and the rest of the Wall Street slimeball banks from dishing out car loans and credit cards to anyone with a pulse. There is no doubt in my mind that these banks are doing this because Bernanke and Obama have told them to do so. The Fed has let them know they have their back. When these loans go bad the Federal Reserve will step in and buy up the bad debt and hide it on their balance sheet. This is the plan stan. It will not work. The brand new cars all over West Philly will be repossesed in the next 24 months and the bad debt will skyrocket. And you will be picking up the tab. Again.

 Lenders Again Dealing Credit to Risky Clients

By JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG and
Published: April 10, 2012

Annette Alejandro just emerged from bankruptcy and doesn’t have a job, and her car was repossessed last year. Still, after spending her days job hunting, she returns to her apartment in Brooklyn where, in disbelief, she sorts through the piles of credit card and auto loan offers that have come in the mail.

“Even I wouldn’t make a loan to me at this point,” Ms. Alejandro said.

In the depths of the financial crisis, borrowers with tarnished credit like Ms. Alejandro were almost entirely shut out by traditional lenders. It was hard enough for people with stellar credit to get loans.

But as financial institutions recover from the losses on loans made to troubled borrowers, some of the largest lenders to the less than creditworthy, including Capital One and GM Financial, are trying to woo them back, while HSBC and JPMorgan Chase are among those tiptoeing again into subprime lending.

Credit card lenders gave out 1.1 million new cards to borrowers with damaged credit in December, up 12.3 percent from the same month a year earlier, according to Equifax’s credit trends report released in March. These borrowers accounted for 23 percent of new auto loans in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 17 percent in the same period of 2009, Experian, a credit scoring firm, said.

Consumer advocates and lawyers worry that the financial institutions are again preying on the most vulnerable and least financially sophisticated borrowers, who are often willing to take out credit at any cost.

“These people are addicted to credit, and banks are pushing it,” said Charles Juntikka, a bankruptcy lawyer in Manhattan.

The banks, for their part, are looking to make up the billions in fee income wiped out by regulations enacted after the financial crisis by focusing on two parts of their business — the high and the low ends — industry consultants say. Subprime borrowers typically pay high interest rates, up to 29 percent, and often rack up fees for late payments.

Some former banking regulators said they worried that this kind of lending, even in its early stages, signaled a potentially dangerous return to the same risky lending that helped fuel the credit crisis.

“It’s clear that we are returning to business as usual,” said Mark T. Williams, a former Federal Reserve bank examiner.

The lenders argue that they have learned their lesson and are distinguishing between chronic deadbeats and what some in the industry call “fallen angels,” those who had good payment histories before falling behind as the economy foundered.

A spokesman for Chase, Steve O’Halloran, said the bank “seeks to be a careful, responsible lender,” adding that it “is constantly evaluating the risks and costs of funding loans.”

Regulators with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, said that as long as lenders adhered to strict underwriting standards and monitored risk, there was nothing inherently dangerous about extending credit to a wider swath of people.

In fact, an increase in lending is a sign that the economy is improving, economists say. While unemployment remains high, consumers have been reducing their debts. Delinquencies on credit card accounts and auto loans are down sharply from their heights in the crisis. “This is a natural loosening of credit standards because the banks feel they can expand again,” said Michael Binz, a managing director at Standard & Poor’s.

And lenders miss many potential customers if they focus just on people with perfect credit.

 “You can’t simply ignore this segment anymore,” said Deron Weston, a principal in Deloitte’s banking practice.

The definition of subprime borrowers varies, but is generally considered those with credit scores of 660 and below.

The push for subprime borrowers has not extended to the mortgage market, which remains closed to all but the most creditworthy.

Capital One is one lender that has been courting borrowers with damaged credit, even those who have just emerged from bankruptcy, with pitches like, “We want to win you back as a customer.”

Pam Girardo, a spokeswoman for Capital One, said, “Our strategy is to provide reasonable access to credit with appropriate guardrails in place to ensure consumers stay on track as they rebuild their credit.”

Ms. Alejandro, 46, was one of the borrowers fresh out of bankruptcy courted by Capital One. So far, she has turned it down.

David W. Nelms, chief executive of Discover Financial Services, the sixth-largest credit card lender in the United States, told investors this month that the company planned to extend credit to a broader group of borrowers. But, he added, Discover is not “suddenly going to go into the subprime business.”

Credit card lenders extended $12.5 billion in loans to subprime borrowers last year, up 54.7 percent from 2010, according to Equifax and Moody’s, but still below the $41.6 billion in 2007.

Lenders are ramping up their advertising, according to Synovate, a market research firm. Others are developing credit cards specifically aimed at borrowers with damaged credit. Capital One, for instance, introduced a credit card last year that allows these borrowers to lower their interest rate after making timely payments for a year.

Auto loans are particularly attractive for lenders since they were largely untouched by many of the new regulations. The new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it had not yet decided whether it would oversee the largest nonbank auto lenders.

At the same time, the market for securities made up of bundles of auto loans is heating up. Last year, investors scooped up $11.7 billion in auto loan securities, up from $2.17 billion in 2008. The pace of securitization in credit cards is slower, with lenders selling roughly 30 percent of their card portfolios to investors, down from 60 percent before the financial crisis, according to S&P.

Steve Bowman, the chief credit and risk officer for GM Financial, an auto lender, said he expected subprime auto loans to continue to grow. Unlike mortgage lenders, Mr. Bowman argued, auto lenders understand how to manage risk while still making loans to borrowers with poor credit.

But Moody’s was already sounding the alarm last year that some very risky borrowers were getting auto loans. The market, Moody’s wrote in a report in March 2011, could be growing “too much too fast.”

Ms. Alejandro is not the only borrower with bad credit to question why anyone would offer a loan. The offer, of course, does not necessarily translate into the issuing of a card.

Shauna Ames, 41, an office manager from St. Paul, said she got a credit card offer from Capital One even though the company had won a lawsuit against her for $5,485 in overdue credit card debt last September. Ms. Ames, who had filed for bankruptcy, said she was surprised at the offer. “I still can’t believe it,” she said. 

Ms. Girardo, the Capital One spokeswoman, said the bank doesn’t solicit customers that it has previously sued. “We believe we can establish long-term relationships with products that are predicated on consumer success,” she said.

ILLUSION OF RECOVERY – FEELINGS VERSUS FACTS

“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

 

The last week has offered an amusing display of the difference between the cheerleading corporate mainstream media, lying Wall Street shills and the critical thinking analysts like Zero Hedge, Mike Shedlock, Jesse, and John Hussman. What passes for journalism at CNBC and the rest of the mainstream print and TV media is beyond laughable. Their America is all about feelings. Are we confident? Are we bullish? Are we optimistic about the future? America has turned into a giant confidence game. The governing elite spend their time spinning stories about recovery and manipulating public opinion so people will feel good and spend money. Facts are inconvenient to their storyline. The truth is for suckers. They know what is best for us and will tell us what to do and when to do it.

The false storyline last week was the dramatic surge in new jobs. This fantastic news was utilized by the six banks that account for 80% of the stock market trading to propel the NASDAQ to an eleven year high and the Dow Jones to a four year high. The compliant corporate press did their part with blaring headlines of good cheer. The entire sham was designed to make Joe the Plumber pull out one of his 15 credit cards and buy a new 72 inch 3D HDTV for this weekend’s Super Bowl. When you watch a CNBC talking head interviewing a Wall Street shyster realize you have the 1% interviewing the .01% about how great things are.

What you most certainly did not hear from the MSM is that the NASDAQ is still down 42% from its 2000 high of 5,048. None of the brain dead twits on CNBC pointed out the S&P 500 is trading at the exact same level it reached on April 8, 1999. Twelve or thirteen years of zero or negative returns are meaningless when a story needs to be sold. On Friday the hyperbole utilized by the media mouthpieces was off the charts, leading to an all-out brawl between the critical thinking blogosphere and the non-thinking “professionals” spouting the government sanctioned propaganda. Accusations flew back and forth about who was misinterpreting the data. I found it hysterical that anyone would debate the accuracy of BLS (Bureau of Lies & Swindles) data.

The drones at this government propaganda agency relentlessly massage the data until they achieve a happy ending. They use a birth/death model to create jobs out of thin air, later adjusting those phantom jobs away in a press release on a Friday night. They create new categories of Americans to pretend they aren’t really unemployed. They use more models to make adjustments for seasonality. Then they make massive one-time adjustments for the Census. Essentially, you can conclude that anything the BLS reports on a monthly basis is a wild ass guess, massaged to present the most optimistic view of the world. The government preferred unemployment rate of 8.3% is a terrible joke and the MSM dutifully spouts this drivel to a zombie-like public. If the governing elite were to report the truth, the public would realize we are in the midst of a 2nd Great Depression.

 

The unemployment rate during the Great Depression reached 25%. Without the BLS “adjustments” the real unemployment rate in this country is 23%. Cheerleading and packaging the data in a way to mislead the public does not change the facts:

  • There are 242 million working age Americans. Only 142 million Americans are working. For the math challenged, such as CNBC analysts, that means 100 million working age Americans (41.5%) are not working. But don’t worry, the BLS says the unemployment rate is only 8.3%. Things are going so swimmingly well in this country the other 33.2% are kicking back enjoying the good life.
  • The labor force participation rate and employment to population ratio are at 30 year lows. The number of Americans supposedly not in the labor force is at an all-time record of 87.9 million. A corporate MSM pundit like Steve Liesman would explain this away as the Baby Boomers beginning to retire. Great storyline, but the facts prove that old timers are so desperate for cash they have dramatically increased their participation in the labor market.

 

  • The data being dished out by the government on a daily basis does not pass the smell test. The working age population since 2000 has grown by 30 million people. The number of people working has grown by only 4.7 million. A critical thinker would conclude the unemployment rate should be dramatically higher than the reported 8.3%. But the government falsely reports the labor force has only increased by 11.8 million in the last eleven years. They have the gall to report that 17.9 million Americans just decided to leave the workforce. The economy was booming in 2000. It sucks today. Don’t more people need jobs when times are tougher? The Boomers retiring storyline has already proven to be false. The fact that 46 million (15% of total population) people are on food stamps is a testament to the BLS lie. A look at history proves how badly the current figures reek to high heaven:
    • 2000 to 2011 – Not in Labor Force increased by 17.9 million.
    • 1990’s – Not in Labor Force increased by 5 million.
    • 1980’s – Not in Labor Force increased by 1.7 million.
  • The Not in the Labor Force category is utilized to hide how bad the employment situation in this country really is. They conclude that 17 million out of 38 million Americans between the ages of 16 and 24 are not in the labor force. That is complete bullshit. From the time I turned 16, I worked. Everyone I knew worked. I worked through high school and college. It is a lie that 45% of these people don’t want a job. If you dig into their data, you realize the horrific state of employment in this country:
    • 74% of 16 to 19 year olds are not employed
    • 85% of black 16 to 19 year olds are not employed
    • 31% of black 25 to 54 year old men are not employed
    • 40% of 20 to 24 year olds are not employed
    • 22% of 25 to 29 year old males are not employed
    • 22% of 50 to 54 year old males are not employed
    • According to the BLS, 11% of men between 25 and 54 are not in the labor force

Not only is real unemployment at Depressionary levels, but those that do have jobs are falling further and further behind. Wages have gone up less than 2% in the last year and have been rising at an annual rate below 3% for the last four years. According to our friends at the BLS, inflation has risen 3% in the last year. This is almost as ludicrous as their unemployment rate. Anyone living in the real world, as opposed to the BLS model world, knows that inflation on the things we need to live has been rising in excess of 10%. It is a fact that if you measure CPI exactly as it was measured in 1980, at the outset of our great debt inflation, it exceeds 10% versus the fake 3% reported without question by the MSM to a non-thinking public. A poor schmuck making the median salary of $25,000 who gets a 2% raise thinks he has $500 more to spend when in reality he has lost $2,000 of purchasing power. Federal Reserve created inflation is an insidious hidden tax that destroys the 99%, while enriching the 1%.

Until Debt Do Us Part

“Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.”Albert Einstein

The recovery storyline being touted by the oligarchy of politicians, bankers and media is designed to make consumers feel better. This is a key part of their master plan. Any honest assessment of the financial disaster that struck in 2008 would conclude it was caused by too much debt peddled to too many people incapable of paying it back, too few banks having too much power, the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates too low for too long, and that same Federal Reserve doing too little regulating of the Too Big To Fail Wall Street mega-banks. I wonder what Albert Einstein would think about the “solutions” rolled out to fix our debt problem. Would he find it insane that total credit market debt has actually risen to an all-time high of $53.8 trillion, up $533 billion from the previous 2008 peak? Our leaders have added $6.1 trillion to our National Debt in the last four years, a mere 66% increase. This unprecedented level of borrowing certainly did not benefit the American people, as real GDP has risen by $96 billion, or 0.7%, over the last four years.

Would Einstein find it insane that the governing elite would encourage the 4 biggest banks, that were the main culprits in creating a worldwide financial collapse, to actually get bigger? The largest banks in the U.S. now control 72% of all the deposits in the country versus 68.5% in 2008. The Too Big To Fail are now Too Bigger To Fail. Rather than liquidating the bad debts, breaking up the insolvent banks, selling off the good assets to well run banks, firing the executives, and wiping out the shareholders & bondholders foolish enough to invest in these badly run casinos, the powers that be chose to protect their fellow .01% brethren and throw the 99% under the bus.

Ben Bernanke, in conjunction with Tim Geithner and his masters on Wall Street, implemented a zero interest rate policy designed to enrich the Wall Street banks, force investors into the stock market, and encourage Americans to borrow and spend like it was 2005 again. Rather than accepting that our economy has been warped for decades, with over-consumption utilizing debt as the driving force, and allowing a reset, the Federal Reserve insanely encouraging banks and consumers to do the same thing again. We do know Bernanke has stolen $450 billion of interest income going to savers and senior citizens and handed it to Jamie Dimon, Vikrim Pandit, Lloyd Blankfein and the rest of the Wall Street cabal. The “austerity is bad” storyline is pounded home on a daily basis by the politicians, corporate chieftains, Wall Street billionaires, and MSM pundits. The definition of austere is “practicing great self-denial”. Did you see the mob scenes on Black Friday? Americans are incapable of any self-denial, let alone great self-denial, and the masters of our country will not allow it to happen. One look at our GDP figures confirms the non-austerity occurring in this country. In 2007, prior to the collapse, consumer spending accounted for 69.7% of GDP. Today, consumer spending accounts for 71% of GDP, with investment accounting for 12.7% of GDP. In the good old days of 1979 prior to the epic debt bubble, when the financial industry do not run this country, consumer spending accounted for 62% of GDP and investment accounted for 19% of GDP. What an insane concept. You spend less than you make and save the difference. You then invest that money where you can get a reasonable return (.15% in a money market account is not exactly reasonable).

As Ludwig von Mises pointed out, a false boom created by credit expansion will ultimately collapse. We had the chance in 2008 – 2009 to voluntarily abandon the Wall Street induced credit expansion and allow our country to reset. The pain and misery would have been great, especially for the 1% who own most of the stocks, bonds and peddle the debt to the ignorant masses. As you can see in the chart below, the powers that be need debt per employed American to grow at an ever increasing rate to maintain their power and wealth. The miniscule reduction in debt from 2009 to 2011 was unacceptable. The governing powers will not be satisfied until von Mises’ final currency catastrophe is achieved.

Bernanke and his Wall Street puppet masters’ plan is actually quite simple. It’s essentially a confidence game. A confidence game (also known as a con, flim flam, gaffle, grift, hustle, scam, scheme, or swindle) is an attempt to defraud a group by gaining their confidence. The people who commit such tricks are often known as con men, con artists, or grifters. The con man often works with one or more accomplices called shills, who help manipulate the mark into accepting the con man’s plan. In a traditional confidence game, the mark is led to believe that he will be able to win money or some other prize by doing some task. The accomplices may pretend to be random strangers who have benefited from successfully performing the task. Bernanke and the 1% are the con men. They are attempting to defraud the 99% by convincing them their “solutions” will benefit them. The shills acting as accomplices are Wall Street bankers, bought off economists, politicians, journalists, and mainstream media pundits. You are the mark. The game has multiple facets but is based on more freely flowing low interest easy debt. The con man has reduced interest rates to zero at the behest of his puppet masters. The Wall Street accomplices offer enticing financing to the marks for big ticket items like automobiles, furniture and electronics. As the marks go further into debt, the Wall Street shills report record earnings ($26 billion from loan loss reserve accounting entries), consumer spending rises and GDP goes higher. The mainstream media accomplices dutifully report an improving economy. The government accomplices massage the employment and inflation data and declare a jobs recovery with no inflation. The marks are supposed to feel better about the future and spend even more borrowed money. This is what is considered a self-sustaining recovery by the psychopaths running this country.

All you have to do is open your daily paper to see the confidence game in full display. Last week the MSM reported another surge in automobile sales. Our beloved American automobile manufacturers are back baby!!! Automobile sales are now pacing above 14 million on an annual basis. This is up from the depths of the recession in 2009 when the annual rate was below 10 million. We’ve breached the Cash For Clunkers level and there is nowhere to go but up. The storyline is that Obama was right to save GM and Chrysler with your tax dollars. They are now making splendid vehicles (except for the exploding Chevy Volts) and employing millions of Americans. This is a true American comeback success story. Clint Eastwood should do a commercial about it.

There is one little problem with this storyline. It’s bullshit. Remember GMAC? You bailed them out when all their subprime auto and mortgage loans went bad in 2009. They have a brand new business plan. Change your name to Ally Bank and start making as many subprime auto loans as possible. You will be happy to know that according to Experian, 45% of all auto loans being made today are to subprime borrowers. What could possibly go wrong? In addition, the average loan term has grown to almost 6 years. Executives at Ally Financial said that subprime car lending had become “very attractive” because profit margins on the loans more than cover the cost of expected losses from borrowers who fail to repay what they owe. I’m sure they have everything completely under control. Gina Proia, a company spokeswoman, said the company places “greater emphasis on the higher end of the nonprime spectrum” and only lends to people who show they can pay. I can’t believe they are restricting their loans to only people who they think can pay. I’m surprised Obama isn’t condemning them for such restrictive loan terms. If you open your paper to the auto section you will see financing offers of $0 down-payment, and 0% interest for 7 years across the board on most models. But why buy, when you can lease a luxury automobile for $300 per month? It is simply amazing how many vehicles you can “sell” when “credit challenged” Americans can rent them for seven years. I wonder if this explains why I see dozens of $40,000 luxury autos parked in front of $25,000 dilapidated hovels during my daily commute through West Philadelphia. It also seems the Big Three are “selling” a few extra vehicles to their dealers in January as pointed out by Zero Hedge. No need to let a few facts get in the way of a feel good story.

  • Ford month-end inventory 86-day supply at end of Jan. (492k vehicles) vs 60-day supply (466k) as of Dec. 31
  • Chrysler had 83-day supply (349k units) end of Jan. vs 64-day (326k units) as of Dec. 31
  • GM month-end inventory 89-day supply (619k units) vs 67-day supply (583k) Dec. 31

The facts prove the issuance of billions in easy credit is creating the illusion of recovery. Non- revolving (auto & student loans) consumer credit outstanding is now at an all-time high of $1.7 trillion. Even with billions in bad debt write-offs since 2009 the amount outstanding has risen by $100 billion. Does this sound like austerity is gripping the nation? The Federal government is dishing out student loans like candy, as hundreds of thousands of students get worthless degrees from for-profit diploma mills like the University of Phoenix and its ilk. By keeping them occupied in school, the government is able to keep them in the Not in the Labor Force category. Not to be outdone, our friends at GE Capital, Wells Fargo and the other too big to fail entities have been doing their part on the revolving credit side of the scam. I’ve recently been seeing an ad by the largest U.S. furniture retailer, Ashley Furniture, offering 0% interest with no payments for 7 years. I don’t know about you, but my kids destroy a couch in less than 7 years. Wells Fargo Credit doesn’t seem too worried. A critical thinker might ask, how can Wells Fargo possibly make money offering these terms? But there is the rub. Ben Bernanke is loaning Wells Fargo money at 0% so they can perpetuate the confidence game. These insane bankers truly believe they can kick start this moribund debt saturated economy by issuing billions more in debt to people incapable of repaying them. Einstein would be amused.

The McKinsey Group put out a report a couple weeks ago analyzing the amount of American household debt and optimistically concluding that it could be back on a sustainable path by 2013. Mike Shedlock pointed out that sustainable is in the eye of the beholder. It seems the bright fellows at McKinsey haven’t grasped the concept of regression to the mean. First of all their analysis is flawed because real disposable personal income is actually declining and Ben Bernanke’s master scam is working and Americans are now adding to their household debt. The little blue line has turned upwards since they gathered their data. Secondly, as Mish so accurately points out, the sustainable level of household debt is really at the levels prior to the debt bubble that began in the early 1980s. That is a debt level of approximately 70% of disposable personal income, as opposed to the current level of 110%.

The implications of household debt levels regressing to their long-term mean would be catastrophic to the 1%. Their kingdom of debt would come crashing down. Their power and wealth would be swept away. This is why it is so vital for them to create the illusion of recovery. Their confidence game is built upon an ever increasing flow of credit expansion. It will not work. There is no avoiding the final collapse of a boom created solely by credit expansion. Those in power will never voluntarily relinquish their grand game of pillaging the wealth of the nation, so economic collapse will be the ultimate result. They will continue to use propaganda, printing presses, and half-truths to further their agenda. But those who examine the facts will come to a logical conclusion that we are being sold a great lie.

“Half the truth is often a great lie.” – Benjamin Franklin



LIVIN IN BEVERLY HILLS (Oldie but Goodie)

I wrote this back in September 2009 before I had a website. I was reminded of it this morning as Weezer blared from my radio on the way to work.  

For the last three decades millions of Americans have been living in Beverly Hills. How can this be? Only 35,000 people reside in Beverly Hills, California. Millions have acted like they live in Beverly Hills, where the median household income is $125,000. The median household income in the United States is $50,000. There are 116 million households in the United States. Only 12 million households have income of $125,000 or more. There are 60 million households making less than $50,000. 

Why shouldn’t the 60 million households be entitled to live like the top 10%? This is America, where the American Dream of wealth and riches is achievable. Just one small problem. Millions chose to live like the privileged Beverly Hills elite without doing the difficult work to earn their way into the top 10%. They made these dreadful decisions of their own free will. No one forced millions of Americans to borrow and spend like drunken soldiers.

It appears that the psychology of the nation transformed in the early 1980’s. Was it the optimistic message of “Morning in America” preached to the country by Ronald Reagan? Was it the fact that the youngest Baby Boomers were turning 35, entering their prime spending years? Or, was it the long-term decline in interest rates from 18% to 1% over two decades? Whatever the rationale, millions are now drowning in deep pool of debt.

Auto Nation

Where I come from isn’t all that great        
My automobile is a piece of crap
  
My fashion sense is a little whack           
And my friends are just as screwy as me
                      Living in Beverly Hills – Weezer

I spend 500 hours per year in my car commuting on the Schuykill Expressway to and from work. In my spare time, I’ve calculated that I will spend at least a year of my life in traffic before I retire. While commuting at 5 mph on the Schuykill, I can’t help but survey the cars I’m sharing the road with. There are thousands jamming the highways in the Philadelphia area. There are 230 million cars in the U.S. and approximately 200 million drivers. We are a car crazed nation, with the number of cars per person 40% higher than Europe, 500% higher than China and 6,200% more than India. In 1970, when I was seven years old, the number of cars per 1,000 people was 529. Today it is 765, a 45% increase in three decades. Suburban dwellers have a love affair with their cars.

The average price of a new car exceeds $30,000 today. That is a nice chunk of change. I have a mental block paying that much money for an asset, that losses 20% of its value in the 1st year of ownership. My price limit is $20,000. I finance my cars over 4 years and try to get 10 years out of them. The 6 years of no payments goes directly into savings. My frugality regarding cars probably harks back to my father buying used cars during my entire childhood. Cars were a means of transportation, not a symbol of success. It appears to me that expensive luxury cars are an attempt at filling a psychological or emotional void in people’s lives. We spend half our lives in cubicles or offices and the other half in our shielded houses with gates and fences to keep people at a distance. The only time we are seen by others is on the highways and byways. An expensive sports car tells the world you are a success. A luxury car is a futile attempt at increasing your perceived happiness. Your fashion sense may be a little whack, but your car isn’t a piece of crap.

This brings me to the conundrum that has confounded me as I drive to work each day. There appears to be many more BMW and Mercedes vehicles on the road than people with enough income to own one of these vehicles. How can this be? I was befuddled. After a little research it became quite clear. The graphs below tell the whole sordid story. Borrow today, live like a Beverly Hills hotshot, roll the loan or lease into the next loan or lease in 3 years, and don’t be troubled about the future. According to the Federal Reserve, consumer non-revolving debt grew from $300 billion in 1980 to $1.6 trillion today. About $1 trilion of this is auto loans. The average automobile loan today is for 63 months, with some going as high as 84 months, compared with an average of less than 48 months in the early 1990s. In 1997 banks financed an average 89% of a new vehicle’s price. The average loan amount was $17,000. In 2007 banks financed 101% of a new vehicle’s price, since consumers borrowed to cover the amount they were upside down on their trade-in. The average loan amount is now $29,000. A full 40% of all trade-ins involve upside-down car loans. The average American car “owner” is in debt up to their eyeballs and upside down on their loan, but at least they look like a million bucks in the eyes of their neighbors and co-workers. Looking marvelous is what passes for achievement today.

Of course, it takes two to tango. A car buyer with no money wouldn’t be able to drive that beautiful BMW X5 or that Mercedes ML350 unless someone loans them the money to do so. This is where the creative geniuses from Wall Street entered the picture. Auto loans were securitized into packages and sold off to investors. The banks and finance companies who initiated the loans did not care if the loans went bad. Their sole intent was to move cars off the lots, not lose sleep about silly details like credit scores, income, or ability to pay back the loan. It worked wonders for the car companies. Annual sales rolled along at a 16 million per year clip. Car executives and bankers made ungodly salaries and bonuses. Then reality set in. Many borrowers couldn’t really afford their loans. Delinquency rates have soared to all time highs in the 10% range and are headed higher. The securitization market froze and annual sales have plunged below 10 million units. Another Wall Street success story.

The ability of car companies to make payments extremely low through long-term loans and leases is the reason an average Joe making $50,000 per year can drive a BMW and resemble someone making $150,000 per year. Chrysler and Ford generated 20% of their car sales through leases, while GM led the pack at 40% of their sales. Many of these leases were for SUVs and other giant gas guzzlers. When gas prices soared in 2008, the residual value of these gas guzzlers plummeted as the resale market disappeared. Ford and Chrysler have written off billions. The king of the hill, GMAC accumulated $33 billion of lease assets and is slowly but surely writting off $14 million of these “assets”, while the taxpayer funds their future bad leases.

Leases have made it possible for millions of Americans to drive the hottest luxurious wheels their limited cash budgets would not permit them to buy. Auto makers loved leases because they could sell higher-priced vehicles, which generate a gusher of profits in the short-term. By piling on inducements of their own, such as rebates or 0% financing deals, auto makers were able to subsidize consumers’ lease payments further. As a result, Americans have been able to have access to vehicles their parents never envisioned driving. Leases allowed anyone to look like a rock-star, driving luxury sedans, sports cars and Hummers costing $40,000 to $60,000. The Wall Street Journal describes a common scenario:

For Richelle Babcock, a mother of two young boys in Ann Arbor, Mich., leasing has made it possible to get new cars every couple of years. A few years ago, she took advantage of a trade-in deal and other incentives Chrysler was offering and got a $180-a-month lease on a 2006 Jeep Commander with a sticker price of about $35,000. There’s “no way,” Ms. Babcock says, that she would have bought the Commander outright. “I don’t want to have to own it and drive it forever.”  Indeed, in December she turned it in and instead leased a new 2008 Commander. Her payment roughly doubled, but that’s mainly because the lease is much less restrictive about her annual mileage.

I’d like to ask Ms. Babcock a couple questions. Does she have college education funds set up for her two young boys? Does she have an emergency fund of 6 months of living expenses? How much does she have in her retirement account? I’m sure she would be offended by such questions. It’s her right to get a brand new car every two years. These are the people who can’t distinguish a need from a want.

This brings me to the chapter in this horror story that really sticks in my craw. I drive through West Philadelphia every day. The neighborhoods are decrepit, with boarded up houses, trash strewn vacant lots, grade schools that resemble prisons, and a substantial number of unemployed folks shuffling about from morning to night. These neighborhoods appear to have five times as many BMWs and Mercedes as my suburban upper middle class neighborhood. According to the U.S. Census, West Philly is a predominantly Black neighborhood, with a large proportion of unmarried high school dropouts living in poverty, occupying dilapidated houses with Direct TV dishes on their roofs. According to the U.S. Census, my neighborhood is occupied by people who are five times higher on the income scale.

The August unemployment figures from the BLS show that the unemployment rate for Black men is 17.0% versus 10.6% last August and versus 9.3% for White men. The unemployment rate for Black teenagers is 34.7%. With these figures, you would expect unrest, looting, and riots in West Philly. The civil unrest hasn’t happened in West Philly or anywhere else. I think I’ve figured out why. Just picture a 20 year old unemployed Black man calling his homies on his iPhone urging them to drag themselves away from staring at their 52 inch HDTVs with 600 stations on their Direct TV network, hop into their BMW X5, and drive over to the comprehensive healthcare riots. It’s not happening. Our elected officials, Federal Reserve and banking cartel have chosen to buy off the poor at the expense of the middle class, so the rich can get richer.

Easy money allows the poor to live like the rich. This explains why people in West Philly are able to drive $50,000 one year old BMWs, while I choose to drive an 8 year old CRV with 130,000 miles. My choice was to finance my $20,000 car over 4 years at 7%. I had a $500 monthly payment for 4 years and then was able to save $500 per month for the next 6 years, banking $36,000 in savings. The auto financing companies GMAC, Ford Credit, and Chrysler Credit offer rebate incentives, 7 year loans, and 0% interest to entice everyone to drive BMWs and Mercedes for a monthly payment below $500. The poor are more likely drawn to three year leases with even lower monthly payments. You can lease a BMW for $399 per month or lower. Once you are lured into 3 year leases or 7 year loans, you are ensnared in a lifetime car payment, never saving a dime. Over 4 decades, my method will leave me with $200,000 of savings. A perpetual car payment will leave you with $0 of savings. Millions have chosen this negligent path. Not only did they pursue this path, they hurtled themselves down the path with gusto by borrowing against their houses to buy cars. The numb-nuts in California and Florida were the worst offenders.

A drug addict still needs a dealer to get their fix. Politicians in Washington with their cohorts in crime, the Federal Reserve and the banking cartel, provided the drug of easy money. The unholy combination of a psychological need to appear successful and easy money has created a deadly recipe for those in the middle class who drive their modest cars for 10 years and save for the future. The black magic of securitization has allowed banks and finance companies to bestow credit card cards and car loans to high school dropouts making $20,000 per year in West Philly with no concern about getting repaid. They packaged this future bad debt, paid off Moody’s and S&P to rate it AAA, and dumped it on suckers throughout the world. Now, auto loan delinquency rates are at all time highs, 1.7 million cars were repossessed in 2008, with another 2 million likely to be repossessed in 2009.

The underprivileged people in West Philadelphia don’t comprehend that politicians and bankers are actually keeping them entrapped in poverty by providing them with easy credit and persuading them that making perpetual payments for cars, TVs, and other material goods is a normal lifestyle. When reality sets in and these people stop making their payments, no trouble for them. As the financial system came crashing down due to the millions of bad loans made by the banking cartel, their protectors Hank (Goldman) Paulson and Ben (Helicopter) Bernanke funneled TRILLIONS of your tax dollars and your children’s tax dollars and their children’s tax dollars to the banks that committed these crimes. The poor people in West Philly don’t pay taxes, so they got to drive BMWs and watch 52 inch TVs for awhile, and are left relatively unscathed. The middle class is paying the bill, losing millions of jobs, while seeing their 401ks drop by 40% and they are still driving their 10 year old cars. Government now wants you to pay more so the poor will have health insurance when they get injured in a BMW accident.

What’s My Payment?

I didn’t go to boarding schools
Preppy girls never looked at me
 

Why should they, I ain’t nobody
Got nothing in my pocket

Living in Beverly Hills – Weezer

For the last three decades you didn’t need anything in your pocket to attract a preppy girl. You just needed to whip out one of your 10 credit cards and act like a Beverly Hills hotshot. Cash was for suckers. Credit cards are so easy to use. You just pull it out, buy whatever you desire at that moment and make a minimum payment every month until infinity. We’ve become a minimum payment nation. If you can handle the minimum payment, it’s yours. In 2006, the Census Bureau determined that there were nearly 1.5 billion credit cards in use in the U.S. A stack of all those credit cards would reach more than 70 miles into space — and be almost as tall as 13 Mount Everests. Consumer credit debt has risen from $400 billion in 1980 to $2.5 trillion today. Consumers have an average of 5.4 credit cards with $973 billion outstanding. The average outstanding credit card debt for households that have a credit card was $10,679 at the end of 2008. The average American with a credit file is responsible for $16,635 in debt, excluding mortgages, according to Experian. The most fascinating fact is that the top 10 U.S. credit card issuers held an 87.55% market share of $973 billion in general purpose card outstanding in 2008. These 10 banks are coincidently the same banks that brought down the financial system (Bank of America, Citicorp, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Capital One, HSBC, American Express, Discover, US Bank, USAA).

Consumer Credit Debt

It has taken Americans three decades of overspending and under-saving to get into this pickle. As you may notice, consumer credit debt is $2.5 trillion and has barely budged downward. The pundits and economists predicting a strong economic recovery are blind to the truths of consumer debt. With actual unemployment exceeding 16.8%, 9 million people forced to work part-time wanting to work full-time, the work week at all time lows, and banks shutting down credit lines, consumers will be reducing or defaulting on their debt for years. With 70% of the economy dependent on consumer spending, there is absolutely no chance of a strong recovery. Household debt service payments as a percentage of disposable income reached a peak of 14.2% in 2007 and have plunged all the way to 13.5% today. Disposable income is plunging as people without jobs don’t have anything to dispose of.

A paradigm shift is occurring and the mainstream media, mainstream economists, and clueless politicians running this country do not understand the implications. Three decades of debt accumulation is not resolved in two years. It will take decades of reduced spending, paying down debt, and writing off debt. The Federal Reserve, banking cartel, and politicians are franticly attempting to make consumers borrow and spend with TARP, TALF, Cash for Clunkers, and numerous other debt increasing gimmicks. The consumer is tapped out. The median 401k balance in the U.S. is $26,000. Boomers realize they are 60 years old and have $50,000 of retirement savings and $30,000 of credit card debt. They are learning the brutal lesson of needs versus wants. The implications are disastrous for those dependent on a consumer spending society (i.e. retailers, restaurants, hotels, car makers, homebuilders).

There are 25% of households in the U.S. with no credit cards. Of those with a credit card, 30% pay off their balances each month. These are the people that have chosen to live within their means. They understand the difference between needs and wants. They appreciate the notion of delayed gratification. You buy things when you can afford them. You live a life of thrift and frugality, save for your family’s future, and live within the parameters of a budget. What a concept. The TARP accepting banks that control 87% of the credit card market are recording losses on an unprecedented scale. But no need to worry, the middle class tax payers come to the rescue again. Orwell must be rolling in his grave at the government originated Troubled Asset Relief Program. “Troubled” is an Orwellian word to describe debt that was knowingly issued by banks to people who would never pay it back in order to generate outrageous fees and bonuses for the executives issuing the debt. When the debt predictably went bad, “Relief” was provided to the criminal bankers on the backs of the taxpaying middle class. Bank of America, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan are bigger than they were before the financial crisis, their executives are still making millions, their “assets” are still “troubled”, and we continue to pay the bill, as will our children and grandchildren. Don’t worry. Ken Lewis, Vikram Pandit and Jamie Dimon’s grandchildren will inherit hundreds of millions of your tax dollars from their banker grandpas.   

I Wanna Be Just Like A King

Beverly Hills… That’s where I want to be! (gimme, gimme)
Living in Beverly Hills…
 
Beverly Hills… Rolling like a celebrity! (gimme, gimme)
Living in Beverly Hills…

Look at all those movie stars
They’re all so beautiful and clean
 
When the housemaids scrub the floors
They get the spaces in between

I wanna live a life like that
I wanna be just like a king
 
Take my picture by the pool
Cause I’m the next big thing
                                 Living in Beverly Hills – Weezer

The 8,000 square foot castle-like McMansions are the symbol of extravagance and excess that represent the worst of America’s hyper-consumerism culture. Even though the family unit has gotten smaller since 1970, the average home size has grown from 1,400 sq ft to 2,500 sq ft. McMansions are clearly not necessary due to family size. Essentially, it is another example of Boomers attempting to show the world they are successful. The bigger and gaudier the house the more flourishing you appear. This psychological need for approval combined with the big lie pushed by the National Association of Realtors that a house is always a great investment to generate the biggest housing bubble in history. One glance at Robert Shiller’s chart showing home prices versus population growth and CPI, proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that we have experienced a manic increase in house prices. It is also unambiguous that the downward spiral is not nearly complete. The housing cheerleaders continue to forecast a housing recovery that is still 5 years in the future.

It is mind boggling that home prices could have surged that high while owner’s equity has plunged from 70% in 1980 to 45%. People didn’t earn the McMansions, they borrowed them. The Federal Reserve created spiral in prices upward has trapped millions of late comers in houses that are worth 20% to 30% less than the mortgage debt that is strangling them. Over 16 million home occupiers (not homeowners) are underwater in their mortgage. The decisions to buy houses with nothing down, using option ARM loans, were free choices made by people who should have known better. The decisions to make subprime loans to people making $30,000, to make no-doc loans, and to not verify income or assets were purposefully done to enrich the bankers, mortgage brokers, and real estate agents. The $10.5 trillion of mortgage debt will need to be paid down or written off over many years, before the housing market will reach equilibrium again.

The dream of living like a king in Beverly Hills has come to a shattering conclusion. As mortgage delinquencies soar to all-time high levels, the kings are being led kicking and screaming to the foreclosure guillotine. Neighborhoods of McMansions in California, Phoenix, Florida, and Las Vegas are weed infested crime ridden high end ghettos. The American dream of home ownership spouted by George Bush and legislated through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has turned into a debt induced nightmare.   

MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES

The Alt-A reset crisis which will begin in 2010 and not crest until 2013 is coming down the tracks at a swift pace. The credit criteria used by the banks that doled out Alt-A loans were as lax as the subprime loans that precipitated this crisis. These loans already have delinquency rates of 33%, even before these resets kick in. There is no evading this calamity. There is also no doubt how the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and government politicians will handle this next emergency. If you have lived in a modest home, made your mortgage payments, didn’t use your home equity to buy a Mercedes ML350, and pay your taxes, the government will seize your taxes again and dispense them to the profligate borrowers and criminal bankers. You will pay your mortgage and the mortgages on millions of other houses.  

Alt-A Loan Resets

Give Me Something I Need

No I don’t – I’m just a no class, beat down fool
And I will always be that way
 
I might as well enjoy my life
And watch the stars play

Beverly Hills… That’s where I want to be! (gimme, gimme)(gimme,gimme)
Living in Beverly Hills…
Beverly Hills… Rolling like a celebrity! (gimme, gimme) (gimme,gimme)
Living in Beverly Hills…

                                 Living in Beverly Hills – Weezer

The era of excess, gluttony, and overindulgence is coming to a wretched ending. The unraveling is complete. We have entered an epoch of crisis that will last for two decades. The coming winter will be cold, bitter and harsh on most Americans. Millions are learning that living in Beverly Hills was just a delusionary dream. They are just no class, beat down fools and I will always be that way. It is time to enjoy the more basic aspects of life: family, friends, enjoying what you’ve got, and leaving the world a better place for our children and grandchildren. It comes down to choices. It is time for Americans to grow up and take responsibility for their actions and their futures. They must realize that the Federal Reserve and the banking cartel are the only ones profiting from ever expanding debt. The Rising Debt Era has not benefited the borrowers as they borrowed toys they couldn’t afford. The beneficiaries were Bank of America, Citicorp, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan and the other members of the cartel. The 10 biggest banks in the country control 48% of all deposits, 50% of the mortgage market, and 87% of the credit card market, supported and protected by the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department. The “too big to fail” continue to get bigger, as the FDIC will shutter 500 smaller banks in the next year.

The banking cartel has no intentions of relinquishing power. It will be left to average Americans to make the right choices. Government will continue to push Keynesian Cash for Clunkers publicity stunts to keep their debt civilization going. The consumer society needs to be put to rest. Americans must ask themselves a few questions. Do you really need a $35 Aeropostale tee shirt when you can get an identical tee shirt at Kohl’s for $6? They were both made in the same Chinese sweatshop by 13 year old children. The difference is that Aeropostale will say it is a “green” shirt because there was no air conditioning used in the sweatshop ruining the ozone layer. What exactly does a pair of $345 Botticelli shoes do that a pair of $35 shoes from Payless Shoe Source won’t do? Does a $10,000 Rolex watch tell time better than a $50 Timex? Will an $85,000 BMW 750LI get you to the supermarket better than a $15,000 Honda Civic?

When I started researching this article, I came across a Heritage Foundation report called How Poor Are America’s Poor? Examining the “Plague” of Poverty in America. The article makes it clear that the poor in America do not fit the portrayal of living in poverty when compared to real poverty in Africa and much of the developing world. The report concludes:

 The typical American defined as “poor” by the government has a car, air conditioning, a refrigera­tor, a stove, a clothes washer and dryer, and a micro­wave. He has two color televisions, cable or satellite TV reception, a VCR or DVD player, and a stereo. He is able to obtain medical care. His home is in good repair and is not overcrowded. By his own report, his family is not hungry and he had suffi­cient funds in the past year to meet his family’s essential needs. While this individual’s life is not opulent, it is equally far from the popular images of dire poverty conveyed by the press, liberal activists, and politicians.

The main causes of child poverty in the United States are low levels of parental work, high numbers of single-parent families, and low skill levels of incoming immigrants. By increasing work and mar­riage, reducing illegal immigration, and by improv­ing the skill level of future legal immigrants, our nation can, over time, virtually eliminate remaining child poverty.

The Heritage Foundation report missed one key aspect of being poor in America. The politicians and banks have taken advantage of the poor’s lack of education and ignorance regarding the perils of debt and have enslaved them in a monthly payment plantation. The poor don’t own the cars, electronics, homes and appliances. They are renting them until they can no longer make the payments. The politicians have colluded with the Federal Reserve and banks to provide bad money to the poor in order to keep them satiated and pliable. When the debt predictably goes bad, the banks are compensated by their bought government cronies with middle class’ tax dollars.

“When I was a child I spoke as a child I understood as a child I thought as a child; but when I became a man I put away childish things.” I Cor. xiii. 11.

Americans, led by the Baby Boom Generation, have been living like spoiled children for thirty years. They have thought like children, with instant self-gratification as their sole aspiration. It is time to put away childish things. Hard times have arrived. There is no easy way out. We have kicked the can down the road for a generation. Tomorrow has arrived. Our long-term structural problems have now collided with our current debt induced tragedy. Current policies that further the expansion of debt will ultimately lead to the collapse of our economic system. The timing is all that is in doubt.

Give me something that I need
Satisfaction guaranteed to you
What’s the consolation prize?
Economy sized dreams of hope
                     

When I was a kid I thought
I wanted all the things that I haven’t got
Oh. I learned the hardest way
Then I realized what it took
To tell the difference between
Thieves and crooks
A lesson learned to me and you

Give me something that I need
Satisfaction guaranteed
Because I’m thinking about
A brand new hope
The one I’ve never known
Cause now I know
It’s all that I wanted

Macy’s Day Parade – Green Day

Materialism has not provided what we needed. As our current crisis deepens, luxury cars and Rolex watches will seem so phony. Childish symbols like yellow rubber wristbands and yellow, pink, and rainbow ribbon stickers on our SUVs do nothing to change the world. When you are walking down the street, look people in the eye and say hello rather than staring at your feet or checking your latest email or text message on your “crackberry”. Deeper personal relationships with family and friends will become crucial. The thieves and crooks occupy Washington DC and Wall Street. We do not need what they are selling. Economy sized dreams of hope will sustain the citizens of this great country. Instead of accumulating stuff, give your stuff to people who need it. Donate your stuff to Purple Heart, the Salvation Army, or any other worthy charity. Donate your time to Manna, Habitat for Humanity, or any other worthy cause. Don’t delegate your role in caring for your fellow citizens to the government. Americans will soon realize that what they wanted was not what they needed.

THERE ARE NO GOOD OUTCOMES

The political class and their mouthpieces in the corporate controlled mainstream media are desperately trying to spin the oil price surge as a temporary inconvenience that will not derail their phony recovery story. Brent crude closed at $116 per barrel yesterday. West Texas crude closed at $104 per barrel. Unleaded gas has risen by 22% in the last month and 60% since September 1, 2010. I’m sure this slight increase hasn’t impacted Ben Bernanke or Lloyd Blankfein. Their limo drivers just charge it to their unlimited expense accounts. Joe Sixpack, driving his 15 mpg Dodge RAM pickup, is now forking over an extra $1,200 per year in gas expenditures, not to mention more for everything impacted by oil such as food, utilities, and anything transported to their local Wal-Mart by truck (everything). Luckily, the Federal Reserve and crooked politicians only care about their comrades in the top 1% elitist society, for whom oil is an investment, not an expense.

               UNLEADED GAS

The “experts” speak as if they know what will happen, even though they never saw the rebellions coming in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. They assure the masses that Libya doesn’t really have an impact on U.S. oil supply. It’s as if these shills never took Econ 101 in college. World oil demand is 88 million barrels per day. Oil supply is 88 million barrels per day. If 1 million barrels of oil supply are taken off-line, it doesn’t matter that the U.S. doesn’t get their oil from Libya. The Italians need their oil. Do the talking heads understand that oil is fungible? The supplier will ship the oil to the highest bidder. Presto!!! – $116 a barrel oil.

With Friends Like This, Who Needs Enemies

Let’s assess the probability of things getting better in the near, medium, long term or ever term. Take a gander at the chart below. These countries account for 29% of the daily world oil supply. Does it strike you as a list of stable countries with happy populations of employed young men?  Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iran have already experienced revolution or are on the verge of revolution. Algeria is dead man walking. The Saudi royal family is trying to buy off the masses to stay in power. The revolution genie is out of the bottle. It can’t be put back. Mix 40% unemployment, with millions of young men, no hope, and some Muslim fundamentalism and you’ve got yourself an out of control situation. No amount of public relations spin will create a positive outcome for the United States. The existing world order of despots, kings, and military juntas was just fine for Washington DC. They poured hundreds of billions of “aid”, tanks, helicopters and missiles to these “freedom fighter” despots who diverted the billions to their Swiss bank accounts and fell into line with U.S. policy. No matter who takes power when these revolutions succeed in toppling our puppets, the new regimes will not be friendlier toward America. And they still have the oil.

Proven Oil Oil
Country Reserves (bil barrels) Production Per Day
Saudi Arabia 265 8,400,000
Iran 137 3,700,000
Iraq 115 2,700,000
UAE 98 2,300,000
Kuwait 102 2,300,000
Libya 46 1,600,000
Algeria 12 1,300,000
Qatar 25 820,000
Oman 6 810,000
Egypt 4 742,000
Syria 3 376,000
Yemen 3 298,000

One look at the chart of self reported world oil reserves paints a picture of woe for the United States. Countries in the tinderbox of the Middle East and Africa control 65% of the world’s oil reserves. Saudi Arabia controls 20%, Iran and Iraq control 11% each, Venezuela controls 7%, Russia 5%, and Libya 3%. So, countries that can barely stomach our existence, hate us, or just despise us, control 57% of the world’s remaining oil. Sounds like a recipe for lower oil prices in the future. The two countries on our border are the only dependable suppliers for the U.S. Canada controls 13% of the world oil reserves, mostly in its tar sands. Mexico controls just over 1% of the world’s oil reserves, but supplies 13% of the U.S. daily oil supply.

File:World Oil Reserves by Region.PNG

Drill, Baby, Drill

Now for a reality check on the “Drill Baby Drill” propagandists like Larry Kudlow and the other dishonest Republican shills. The United States controls a full 1.58% of the remaining oil reserves in the world. We have 21.3 billion barrels of reserves versus 264 billion barrels in Saudi Arabia. We are currently producing 9 million barrels per day. At that production rate, the U.S. will deplete its proven reserves in the next 6 to 10 years. New discoveries will not be able to keep up with depletion of existing wells. The good news just keeps coming. Mexico’s oil production has been dependent upon one giant oil field since 1976. The Cantarell oil field produced 2.1 million barrels per day in 2003 at its peak. It is currently producing 464,000 barrels per day. Peak oil has arrived in Mexico. By 2015, the country that currently supplies 13% of our daily oil supply will become a net importer of oil. Drill Baby Drill.

File:Mexican Petroleum Production.PNG

Based upon the monthly import data below from the IEA, it would appear that, to paraphrase Chief Brody in Jaws, we’re going to need more corn. As the Obama administration operates in denial of these simple facts, they will continue to push ethanol and Chevy Volts to save us from dirty oil. We are already diverting 40% of our corn crop to the ethanol boondoggle. I’m sure that has nothing to do with the 98% increase in corn prices in the last year. Maybe tax credits for solar panels on SUVs and rubber band propeller cars will save the day.

We know for a fact that Mexico’s 1.2 million barrels per day will evaporate in the next few years. But, at least we have that solid dependable 2.7 million barrels per day (30% of our daily imports) from those stable bastions of democracy Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, Angola, and Algeria. Makes you want to go out and buy a Hummer. The storyline being sold to the American people is that there is no need to worry. Saudi Arabia will step to the plate and make up for any shortfalls throughout the world. Just one problem. Saudi Arabia is lying about their reserves and their ability to increase production. They’d fit in very well in Congress and on Wall Street.

Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries)
(Thousand Barrels per Day)
Country Dec-10 Nov-10 YTD 2010 Dec-09 YTD 2009

CANADA 2,064 1,975 1,972 2,104 1,943
MEXICO 1,223 1,229 1,140 1,063 1,092
SAUDI ARABIA 1,076 1,119 1,080 870 980
NIGERIA 1,024 806 986 1,020 776
VENEZUELA 825 884 912 772 951
IRAQ 336 340 414 325 449
ANGOLA 307 263 380 266 448
BRAZIL 271 188 254 181 295
ALGERIA 262 379 325 336 281
COLOMBIA 220 489 338 179 251
ECUADOR 192 188 195 86 181
RUSSIA 158 85 252 168 230
KUWAIT 125 170 195 160 180
UNITED KINGDOM 124 80 120 67 103
ARGENTINA 85 35 29 33 53

Lies, Obfuscation, Misinformation & Denial

The late Matt Simmons made the strong case In his book Twilight in the Desert that Saudi Arabia has been lying about their reserves for years. Documents released by Wikileaks give support to this contention. Cables from the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh , released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from senior Saudi government oil executive Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco, that the kingdom’s crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels – nearly 40%.
The UK Guardian reported:

According to the cables, which date between 2007-09, Husseini said Saudi Arabia might reach an output of 12m barrels a day in 10 years but before then – possibly as early as 2012 – global oil production would have hit its highest point. This crunch point is known as “peak oil”.

Husseini said that at that point Aramco would not be able to stop the rise of global oil prices because the Saudi energy industry had overstated its recoverable reserves to spur foreign investment. He argued that Aramco had badly underestimated the time needed to bring new oil on tap.

One cable said: “According to al-Husseini, the crux of the issue is twofold. First, it is possible that Saudi reserves are not as bountiful as sometimes described, and the timeline for their production not as unrestrained as Aramco and energy optimists would like to portray.”

The US consul then told Washington: “While al-Husseini fundamentally contradicts the Aramco company line, he is no doomsday theorist. His pedigree, experience and outlook demand that his predictions be thoughtfully considered.”

A fourth cable, in October 2009, claimed that escalating electricity demand by Saudi Arabia may further constrain Saudi oil exports. “Demand [for electricity] is expected to grow 10% a year over the next decade as a result of population and economic growth. As a result it will need to double its generation capacity to 68,000MW in 2018,” it said.

It also reported major project delays and accidents as “evidence that the Saudi Aramco is having to run harder to stay in place – to replace the decline in existing production.” While fears of premature “peak oil” and Saudi production problems had been expressed before, no US official has come close to saying this in public.

The overstatement of reserves by Saudi Arabia and most of the OPEC countries should be abundantly clear to anyone with a smattering of critical thinking skills. This eliminates just about everyone on CNBC or Fox News. Essentially, the self reported, unaudited declared oil reserves from OPEC members are a fraud. Production quotas for each member of OPEC are dependent upon their oil reserve amount. When this was instituted in the early 1980s, shockingly OPEC countries miraculously added nearly 300 billion barrels to proven reserves in a six year period with NO NEW DISCOVERIES of oil. The chart below shows the unexplained jumps in reserves in red. Do you honestly believe any self reported number from Iran or Venezuela? Dr. Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former senior expert of the National Iranian Oil Company, has estimated that Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have overstated reserves by a combined 320–390 billion barrels and has said, “As for Iran, the usually accepted official 132 billion barrels is almost one hundred billion over any realistic estimate.”

Using some common sense, someone might ask, “How could Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves remain above 260 million for the last 22 years despite pumping over 60 billion barrels during this time frame, and not making any major new discoveries?” Maybe their statisticians did their training at Goldman Sachs or the Federal Reserve. The monster Saudi oil fields are over 40 years old. They will deplete. Oil is finite. They will not refill abiotically like some crackpots contend. Saudi Arabia’s production peaked in 2005 and it has been unable to reach that level since. The spin sheiks in Riyadh and spin doctors in Washington DC cannot spin oil out of sand. Peak oil is about to choke the American way of life.

Declared reserves of major Opec Producers (billion of barrels)
BP Statistical Review – June 2009
Year Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Libya Nigeria
1980 58.3 30.0 67.9 168.0 30.4 19.5 20.3 16.7
1981 57.0 32.0 67.7 167.9 32.2 19.9 22.6 16.5
1982 56.1 59.0 67.2 165.5 32.4 24.9 22.2 16.8
1983 55.3 65.0 67.0 168.8 32.3 25.9 21.8 16.6
1984 58.9 65.0 92.7 171.7 32.5 28.0 21.4 16.7
1985 59.0 65.0 92.5 171.5 33.0 54.5 21.3 16.6
1986 92.9 72.0 94.5 169.7 97.2 55.5 22.8 16.1
1987 92.9 100.0 94.5 169.6 98.1 58.1 22.8 16.0
1988 92.9 100.0 94.5 255.0 98.1 58.5 22.8 16.0
1989 92.9 100.0 97.1 260.1 98.1 59.0 22.8 16.0
1990 92.9 100.0 97.0 260.3 98.1 60.1 22.8 17.1
1991 92.9 100.0 96.5 260.9 98.1 62.6 22.8 20.0
1992 92.9 100.0 96.5 261.2 98.1 63.3 22.8 21.0
1993 92.9 100.0 96.5 261.4 98.1 64.4 22.8 21.0
1994 94.3 100.0 96.5 261.4 98.1 64.9 22.8 21.0
1995 93.7 100.0 96.5 261.5 98.1 66.3 29.5 20.8
1996 92.6 112.0 96.5 261.4 97.8 72.7 29.5 20.8
1997 92.6 112.5 96.5 261.5 97.8 74.9 29.5 20.8
1998 93.7 112.5 96.5 261.5 97.8 76.1 29.5 22.5
1999 93.1 112.5 96.5 262.8 97.8 76.8 29.5 29.0
2000 99.5 112.5 96.5 262.8 97.8 76.8 36.0 29.0
2001 99.1 115.0 96.5 262.7 97.8 77.7 36.0 31.5
2002 130.7 115.0 96.5 262.8 97.8 77.3 36.0 34.3
2003 133.3 115.0 99.0 262.7 97.8 77.2 39.1 35.3
2004 132.7 115.0 101.5 264.3 97.8 79.7 39.1 35.9
2005 137.5 115.0 101.5 264.2 97.8 80.0 41.5 36.2
2006 138.4 115.0 101.5 264.3 97.8 87.3 41.5 36.2
2007 138.2 115.0 101.5 264.2 97.8 99.4 43.7 36.2
2008 137.6 115.0 101.5 264.1 97.8 99.4 43.7 36.2

The denial, accusations and misinformation have already begun. Congressional hearings will be called to blame Big Oil and the dreaded speculators. Americans always need a bogeyman to blame for their mindless decisions and willingness to be led to slaughter by corrupt politicians. Big oil companies do benefit from higher oil prices. Big oil companies spend millions buying off Congressmen. Big oil companies cut corners, ignore safety procedures, and seek profits by any means possible. But, they do not control the oil. Nations control the oil. Many of these nations are led by lying, corrupt, evil despots. That is a fact. Blustering moronic Congressmen going after oil executives and phantom speculators is just a sideshow. It will divert the non-thinking masses from the truth that our leaders haven’t allowed a refinery or nuclear power plant to be built since 1977. These leaders have promoted and subsidized corn based ethanol that requires more energy to produce than it creates and has driven the cost of our food sky high. We are more dependent on foreign oil than any time in our history.

The real speculators are the Americans who clog our highways every morning driving monster SUVs, turbocharged sports cars, gas guzzling minivans, and pickup trucks that make them feel like salt of the earth tough guys despite living in their 6,000 square foot energy sucking McMansions in suburban tracts 30 miles from their jobs, if they have one. The ignorance of the average American car buyer knows no bounds. The recent bounce back in auto sales was led by SUVs and pickups. The green clean cars are nothing but hype and bullshit. GM expects to sell about 10,000 Volts this year, and Nissan expects to sell about 25,000 Leafs in the United States, a piss in the ocean compared with the millions of sport wagons and SUVs purchased by Americans annually. Americans have the attention span of a gnat and are already dazed and confused by the surge in gas prices to $3.50 per gallon.

When oil prices spiked to $147 barrel in 2008, Americans were spending $467 billion per year for fuel. By early 2009, the collapse in energy prices due to the worldwide recession reduced the annual expenditure to $265 billion, freeing up over $200 billion for consumers to spend on other items, pay down debt, or save. Expenditures for fuel had already surged back to $400 billion before the recent spike in oil prices. Next stop $500 billion. That should do wonders for the faux economic recovery that has been touted by Obama and the MSM for the last year. The years of denial, lies, indecision, bad decisions, and inertia have left the country vulnerable and at the mercy of countries in far off lands that despise our way of life.

There are no good outcomes, only bad, really bad, and catastrophic. Take your pick. Could gas prices drop below $3.00 per gallon if the world sinks back into recession? Yes. But it would only be momentary. The easy to access supply is dwindling. The medium and long term direction of gas at the pump is up. There is nothing that can be done in the next five years to prevent significantly higher oil prices. A full court press of realistic ideas like converting our truck fleets to natural gas, a major effort to build nuclear power plants, more drilling, greater use of wind, geothermal, and solar would take at least a decade to have an impact. There is no consensus or resolve to undertake such an effort. Therefore, Americans will suffer the consequences. Be a good American and take advantage of GM’s no interest for 7 years deal on their biggest baddest SUVs and buy two. What could go wrong?