On Wednesday another American, NBC News reporter in Liberia Ashoka Mukpo was diagnosed with the deadly virus, the channel reported. He is being evacuated to the US for treatment. However, the appearance of Ebola in Europe has not been widely reported. On Friday, Germany confirmed its second case of Ebola, as a man flown from West Africa into Frankfurt University Hospital has been placed in an isolation ward.
According to the latest figures disclosed by the UN World Health Organization (WHO) there have been 7,178 confirmed cases since the first Ebola patient was treated early this year. The agency says there have been 3,338 deaths from Ebola based on information provided by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
We are looking at almost a 50% mortality rate. That is up there with the Black Plague of the 14th century. There was of course the 1916 Polio (poliomyelitis) epidemic that inflected 27,000 people and killed 7,000. Polio came back 1949-1952 infecting 99,801 people in USA killing 6,020 people with about 500,000 deaths worldwide. This disease has tended to infect city-dwellers and is known even in ancient times to have hit many people. There was the 1916-1926 Encephalitis lethargica or von Economo disease is an atypical form of encephalitis. Also known as “sleepy sickness” epidemic that killed 5 million people in Europe and North America alone. Then the 1918 Spanish Flue that killed an estimated 100 million worldwide. The 1980 AIDS epidemic infected 988,376 people killing 550,394 by December 2005.
The three greatest plagues were Antonine Plague, due to the name of the Roman emperor in power at the time, 165–180AD, which had a mortality rate of about 30% of population Europe, Western Asia, Northern Africa. The type of disease is not known, but the symptoms were similar to smallpox.
The second great plague was known as Plague of Justinian, due to the name of the Byzantine emperor in power at the time, 541–542AD, which killed about 40% of population Europe. This was the Bubonic plague.
Then there was the great one known as “Black Death”, which killed 30% to 70% of population in various countries within Europe between 1346–1350AD. This was the plague that came to Europe from Crimea in Ukraine/Russia.
The 1918 flu pandemic (January 1918 – December 1920) (pictured above) was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. This was the first of the two pandemics involving H1N1 influenza virus. It infected 500 million people across the world, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic, and killed 50 to 100 million of them. The mortality rate is better known as a percentage of the world’s population being about 5% while the mortality rate among those infected was about 20% making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in human history.
Plagues are important. My own family came to America prior to the American Revolution. The first Armstrong to arrive in American was named Martin. My family even fought in the American Revolution. However, there was a plague that hit Philadelphia/New York region during the mid-1800s. My ancestor Martin at that time saw his entire family die. The woman next door saw her children and husband die. The two eventually married and restarted a family. So I guess I am here today because of that plague.
We are trying to gauge the extent of infection as a percentage of population, the mortality rate among those infected, in order to see if this is going to be a big one or a blip that is not huge as a percentage of world population. Everything is cyclical. When you get flu shots, they are based upon cycles and which strain should appear and when. This is the annual flu season.
To be accurate, the study we are conducting has several layers to it. Plague is typically a bacteria whereas a virus is different. Both have become pandemics which is an epidemic that has spread through human populations across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or even worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of the seasonal flu. Throughout history there have been a number of pandemics, such as smallpox and TB (tuberculosis). More recent pandemics include the AIDS (HIV) pandemic as well as the 1918 and 2009 H1N1 virus pandemics.
For the purposes of our study, we plot both separately and then combined. In the words of Hillary Clinton – “what difference does it make” if you are dead.
I really wasn’t that worried about the Dallas victim of Ebola UNTIL I saw what the ass-clowns around him were doing.
On Wednesday night, October 1st, two Dallas “health officials”, accompanied by numerous police personnel, went into the victim’s apartment UNPROTECTED, as in not wearing any protective gear. Can you friggin’ believe this shit? This is the quarantined apartment I’m speaking of. They’ve now had to turn in their uniforms and boots, their squad cars were taken out of service and are being cleaned (hopefully not by the bozos in the bottom link), and the deputies have been put on leave. WTF?
“The three deputies, a sergeant, and a lieutenant accompanied the head of Dallas County Health and Human Services Department and a doctor into the apartment late Wednesday night. They had gone there on the orders of Sheriff Lupe Valdez to get the people inside to sign a court order forbidding them from leaving the apartment.”
http://www.wfaa.com/story/news/local/dallas-county/2014/10/02/dallas-county-sheriffs-deputies-entered-ebola-quarantined-apartment/16622445/
And the quarantined family told the officers that they were running out of food, so:
“…one of the supervisors got sandwiches and drinks for the family from a police prostitution diversion initiative that was going on nearby. ”
Here’s a picture of the two “health officials” leaving on Wednesday night – no protective gear.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/dallas-ebola-case-thomas-duncan-contacts.html?action=click&contentCollection=Opinion®ion=Footer&module=TopNews&pgtype=article&_r=0
Tell me this article is from The Onion, please.
Then check this out – look at the two men power washing the victim’s vomit off the parking lot, with one woman in sandals walking through it. Hey, Dallas, bend over! A Red Cross worker can be seen delivering food to the apartment, again no protective gear.
One guy in the “Comments” section said something like, “Please tell me there’s bleach in that hose.” Nobody is wearing protective gear.
And the West is going over to Africa to help stop the spread of the disease? Okay, let me get out my calculator. 4 x 10 to the 8th power = the whole of Africa and Europe dead by Xmas.
CDC – Center for Disease Circulation.
This woman (step-daughter to Ebola victim) and her family saw the victim on Sunday, the day he went to the hospital. She had gone over to check on him and make him some tea. He was shaking and feverish, so she went out and bought him a blanket, then returned. She helped prop him up in bed, then she called 9-1-1. This family appears to have been quite responsible, quarantining themselves without being asked to (God knows why they weren’t).
“Aaron Yah, 43, and wife Youngor Jallah, 35, yesterday told of their ordeal in isolation and revealed that they had not received direct orders to stay indoors.”
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2779932/CDC-not-contacted-second-family-Ebola-quarantine-24-hours-sneezing-coughing.html
Ebola ain’t the only worry ….
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That’s Emily Otrando, a 10-year-old from Cumberland, Rhode Island. She’s dead now … infected with some virus called EV-D68. A 4 year old preschooler from NJ just died. 514 children across the country are now infected.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2780296/New-Jersey-preschooler-died-confirmed-infected-Enterovirus-D68-500-children-country-diagnosed-illness.html
Stucky – so sad about the poor little children. I can’t imagine the pain of the grieving families. I don’t know how they can bare it. I know I couldn’t.
They said that some of these children had had asthma. Then on top of that they get the flu, making it harder to breathe, and then it sounds like they got a bacterial infection in the lungs (pneumonia). All three!
That’s massive antibiotic and respirator time, and I guess it was just too late. Their little lungs weren’t strong enough.
You almost get the feeling with the Dallas situation that somebody wants more people to get infected, these professionals can’t be that incompetent, can they?
Good article here…
http://raconteurreport.blogspot.kr/2014/10/you-cant-handle-truth.html
Includes such fun facts as how many BL-4 installations there are in the US (infectious disease wards).. for the curious, there’s exactly FOUR. And they’re pretty far flung… usually located someplace like right next to a US Government bioweapons testing facility… none are located in a major US city, save Atlanta.
Other fun facts, like that hospitals have very limited numbers of beds set up in rooms with negative air pressure. Most are between 1 and 6. If you’re unlucky enough to be Number 7, guess where you get to wait?
And the fact that the CDC changed it’s webpage re: Ebola. Seems they were a bit too honest with their first effort, so they pulled some pesky facts off the website that were undermining their soothing noises…
All this goes to:
1. The Government ALWAYS lies.
2. NEVER trust the Government.
3. When in doubt, see Rule 1.
4. People SUCK.
Bottom line is that we are at least partially fucked… that dumbfuck Liberian nigger couldn’t have picked a worse way to seek treatment… he strolls into a 1000 bed hospital in the middle of Dallas, infecting we don’t know how many people along the way, contaminating all sorts of shit… combined with the bumblefuck staff (who didn’t decontaminate the ambulance for TWO DAYS or even take the most basic precautionary steps… like sequestering the dumbfuck nigger from everyone else… at least then, you’d only have to worry about one room… and not an entire waiting room full of people, plus how many people those came in contact with, etc… ), like Jojimbo said, this is turning into a clusterfuck of monumental proportions…
Gotta love this…
Dumbfuck Liberian Ebola nigger puked in a public parking lot. The below photograph shows how the cleanup of this biohazard was conducted…
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Yep.. plain old pressure washer. No bleach. No Tyvek suit. No gloves. No police tape. Notice the female in sandals about to take a step into the runoff? Not to mention the pressure washer blasting the Ebola puke into an aerosol and into the surrounding area…
Yeah… this is just fucking peachy…
Looks like Dallas is off my list of vacation spots for pretty much the rest of my life…
If we get out of this without major contagion, it’s going to be because of sheer dumb luck – that it’s relatively hard to catch. We should know in three weeks, based upon how many people in Dallas show symptoms of Ebola. The CDC staff act as though they are responsible for a low transmission rate – as though they had done something right. They haven’t done anything, and they’re only hoping that it has a low airborn transmission rate.
Seems to me that having the contagion spreading on North American soil, is going to make some pharmaceutical company a whole bunch of money, cos lets face it…… North Africans don’t have the money to pay for “the cure” but America does.
@ T4C –
I used to listen to half-past human with great interest. Then, the global ocean event date came and went without little ado. No great events like he was predicting. He later crawfished and said that the meteor over Russia was the global oceanic event. I don’t take much stock in his analysis, although I really don’t know how the model works. What are your thoughts on his work?
@ Billy –
You may remember, I moved to Dallas last February, for work purposes. I’ve been knowing this whole time, that the move to Dallas was just a stop on the way to something better, more real. Now, with this shit, my list of “pro’s” gets smaller and the list of “con’s” gets much bigger. I’ve been watching this story with great interest to see how it develops, knowing what you say is true, that I can’t trust the gub’mint or the media to tell the truth. I have to always be looking between the lines to try and determine what they really mean.
I listen to The Survival Podcast with Jack Spirko pretty regular. He lives outside of Ft. Worth, somewhere. I trust him to shoot straight with what he says. He mentioned the other day that he wasn’t concerned about the outbreak. One reason that makes sense to me, is the climate. Thankfully, the weather has broken, and we’ve had some cooler weather. Fall and then winter is on the way. It is my understanding that the climatic conditions here don’t make suitable environment for the virus. Nevertheless, I continue to watch the developments of this story. I cringe every time an update comes out that the situation is always worse than the previous update. I always assume that it’s even worse than that.
We’ve been visiting a church (near Ft. Worth) that has a large congregation from……..somewhere. I’m not sure exactly where, but it’s not Texas. They speak French, so that means Gabon? Congo? Liberia? I’m sure they’re all very nice people, but I think maybe it’s time to find another church to visit until this is more clear to us. The incubation time is, what? 3 weeks? 4 weeks? Who knows who this man visited and came in contact with? THAT number seems to grow everyday.
May you live in interesting times. Indeed.
Tim-
Climate?
Actually, the virus survives longer on surfaces at cooler temperatures (4C) than warm.
Shit. I’m such a fucking dummy. Thanks for that clarification. More bad news. Fuck Dallas.
Dumb luck may prevent a outbreak in the USA but I would not count on it. God forbid if that virus finds a suitable host in our country. Think bats , dogs , pigs etc.. That enterovirus is looking very similar to polio, truck loads of unimmunized central Americans running loose all over the country causing recurrent late summer/fall outbreaks of the infection.Imagine EBOLA as a recurrent problem!
“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” Thus, we are fucked.
EV68’s becoming an interesting problem. Anecdotally, transmission efficacy comparable to Norovirus, so with the colder months approaching the Northern Hemisphere might be in for a problem
I’m basing this on increased “host densities” – resulting from:
1. Increased use of mass transit systems (walking is less popular when its cold and/or wet)
2. Transition from outdoor activities to indoor. Including Spectator Sports.
3. Approaching peak retail season (festive season) so customer numbers will increase in Shopping Malls.
Add in the reduction in UV irradiance (winter months), and therefore extended viability half-life of all viruses on exposed surfaces, the odds for transmission and maybe establishment of a sustained infection, will increase markedly.
Thanks to our modern chemical filled world, our crappy and anti-health thanks to bad info diets, and pushed/mandated vaccinations, and illnesses that forever increase in number, our collective immune systems are SHOT.
A strong bug with adaptive capabilities could run rampant throughout the population.
Strong immune systems, strong guts. I’m going to do a cleanse and start up my winter regimen of supplements early this year.
A weird cough is already going through the family – school is a petri dish and my daughter picks up crap every year – looks like the need for preparedness grows.
Re: Tim, regarding Clif High and the “Global Coastal Event”, his was not the only prediction. farsight.org ran a remote viewing series with multiple “military-grade” viewers and predicted the same event.
Neither panned out as expected, so either
1) the methodology was flawed
2) it just hasn’t happened yet (but still could)
3) it DID happen but just not in this “dimension”
Spooky stuff indeed!
Tim,
Sorry for your luck, bro… if it were me, I’d be leaving a vapor trail the hell out of Dallas… I just got a feeling this is gonna break bad.
Part of me thinks this whole thing has been engineered. First, Homeland says they need “caregivers” and shit for about 150,000 kids… then several months later, here comes a human wave of kids from South America, carrying God-knows-what and after only the crudest of cursory checks, are dispersed throughout the population of the US…
THEN, intentionally or through feigned incompetence, some Ebola Nigger rolls into the US and we lose track of him for days… during which, he’s infecting and contaminating along the way and – as a final “fuck you” – he rolls into a 1000 bed critical care facility in the heart of Dallas, effectively neutralizing it.
You really thing anyone within miles of the Ebola Magnet Hospital of Excellence is going to use that for critical care, now that Ebola Nigger has contaminated it? Used to be, going to the hospital could kill you because of Staph… now, you show up because of chest pains and your innards turn to into a Slushy… which means all the traffic that the hospital could have handled is now being diverted to other hospitals, further stressing the system…
If it were me, I would be seriously considering my options at this point… at least have your shit packed and good to hook, pick primary, secondary and tertiary routes out of Dodge… and STAY THE HELL AWAY from any west africans… don’t care how “nice” they are. At this point, it’s a survival thing.
Baghdad Bob said the Americans would never make it to the city of Baghdad.
Obama said Ebola was well contained in Africa and would never get to America.
Now that it’s in America the Experts of the CDC assure us it will be contained.
You reach a point where reassuring speeches by Baghdad bob or Obama or the CDC no longer count for anything and reality just takes over. That’s where we are. We will know soon enough.
I think the whole Ebola problem is bitchy. First of all, CDC or Centers for Disease Control allowed the Dallas nurses to take care and come in contact with Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan without a hazmat suit. Wow. That’s damn stupid. Let me guess, CDC had never heard the fact that Ebola can be transmitted to a person through a drop of infected blood or vomit?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Now that’s shit.
You see to it…