WILL 2012 BE AS CRITICAL AS 1860? (Featured Article)

“We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained, it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory will swell when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.”  – Abraham Lincoln

We are approximately five years into The Fourth Turning Crisis. Every previous Fourth Turning had an economic dimension that eventually led to a do or die all out war. The mainstream linear thinkers see a recovery and a return to their concept of normality. They will be shocked and flabbergasted when they realize that this is only the beginning of a 20 year period of turmoil, chaos and war. It seems that some study of history would benefit the mainstream talking media heads pretending to know what is happening and political hacks in Washington D.C. who pretend to administer the affairs of state. The cycles of history are not identical, but the alignment of generations is always the same. The cycles are consistent because a long human life is always between 80 and 100 years. The previous Fourth Turnings in U.S. history were the American Revolution, the Civil War and the Great Depression/World War II. The descriptions are as follows:

American Revolution (Fourth Turning, 1773-1794) began when Parliament’s response to the Boston Tea Party ignited a colonial tinderbox—leading directly to the first Continental Congress, the battle of Concord, and the Declaration of Independence.  The war climaxed with the colonial triumph at Yorktown (in 1781).  Seven years later, the new “states” ratified a nation-forging Constitution.  The crisis mood eased once President Washington weathered the Jacobins, put down the Whiskey Rebels, and settled on a final treaty with England.

The Civil War (Fourth Turning, 1860-1865) began with a presidential election that many southerners interpreted as an invitation to secede. The attack on Fort Sumter triggered the most violent conflict ever fought on New World soil. The war reached its climax in the Emancipation Proclamation and Battle of Gettysburg (in 1863). Two years later, the Confederacy was beaten into bloody submission and Lincoln was assassinated–a grim end to a crusade many had hoped would “trample out the vintage where the grapes of wrath are stored.”

The Great Depression & World War II (Fourth Turning, 1929-1946) began suddenly with the Black Tuesday stock-market crash.  After a three-year economic free fall, the Great Depression triggered the New Deal revolution, a vast expansion of government, and hopes for a renewal of national community.  After Pearl Harbor, America planned, mobilized, and produced for war on a scale that made possible the massive D-Day invasion (in 1944).  Two years later, the crisis mood eased with America’s surprisingly trouble-free demobilization.

There is a consistent tempo to all Fourth Turnings. An event or series of events leads to the initial Crisis. As the Fourth Turning progresses it becomes more intense, chaotic, dire and bloody. It eventually exhausts itself as a victor is left in control of the battlefield. Picture George Washington at Yorktown, Ulysses S. Grant at Appomattox, and Douglass McArthur on the Battleship Missouri. The events during a Fourth Turning will always be different. The consistent aspect of all Fourth Turnings is the mood of the country, the same generational dynamics, and the reactions of the generations to events. Strauss & Howe describe this Crisis period as follows:

“The spirit of America comes once a saeculum, only through what the ancients called ekpyrosis, nature’s fiery moment of death and discontinuity. History’s periodic eras of Crisis combust the old social order and give birth to a new. A Fourth Turning is a solstice era of maximum darkness, in which the supply of social order is still falling but the demand for order is now rising.”

The turnings of history are like the seasons. It is impossible to go directly from Fall to Spring. You must withstand the bitter harshness of Winter in order to get to the revitalizing warmth of Spring. The intensity and depth of Winters will vary. Those who prepare for a potentially harsh Winter in advance will be more likely to survive.  The morphology of Fourth Turnings as described by Strauss & Howe is:

  • A Crisis era begins with a catalyst – a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.
  • Once catalyzed, a society achieves regeneracy – a new counterentropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.
  • The regenerated society propels toward a climax – a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.
  • The climax culminates in a resolution – a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order.

An honest assessment of where we sit in this cycle shows that we are still in stage one. The housing collapse brought about the near destruction of the worldwide financial system. The sudden shift in mood has been borne out by the angry rise of the Tea Party and the startling result from the recent election. Society is on the verge of stage two. There has yet to be the reunification and reenergizing of society. It still feels like things are falling apart. The sun is slowly setting on this stage and a dark brutal Winter night beckons.

1860 Election – Spark that Ignited an Epic Conflagration

 

Turnings throughout history have consistently lasted between 15 and 25 years, except one. The Civil War Crisis Turning lasted only 5 years and seems to not fit the standard definition of a Turning. Strauss & Howe reflected that:

“By the usual pattern of history, the Civil War Crisis catalyst occurred four or five years ahead of schedule and its resolution nearly a generation too soon.”

The truth is that instead of a drawn out Crisis over 15 to 20 years that would have had undulations of pain and suffering, the U.S. experienced the most savage 5 years in our history, with 620,000 Americans killed and 400,000 wounded. Ten percent of all Northern males 20–45 years of age died, as did 30 percent of all Southern white males aged 18–40. Strauss and Howe conclude that there are two lessons from the Civil War Crisis:

  1. The Fourth Turning morphology admits to acceleration.
  2. That acceleration can add to the tragedy of the outcome.

The catalyst for the Crisis was the election of Abraham Lincoln as President of the United States. After the Compromise of 1850, who would have envisioned the election of an unknown Congressman from an abolitionist party that didn’t even exist in 1850. Beyond that, could anyone have predicted the carnage from the bloodiest war in the history of mankind being the result of that election? Many people do not know that there were four candidates for President in 1860 and that Lincoln won the election with only 39.8% of the popular vote. Lincoln won the Presidency and he wasn’t even on the ballot in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, or Texas.

The Republican Party realized they had a tremendous opportunity to win the Presidency as the Democrats were in disarray. Since it was essential to carry the West, and because Lincoln had a national reputation from his debates and speeches as the most articulate moderate, he won the party’s nomination on the third ballot on May 18, 1860. The Republican platform stated that slavery would not be allowed to spread any further, and it also promised that tariffs protecting industry would be imposed, a Homestead Act granting free farmland in the West to settlers, and the funding of a transcontinental railroad.  All of these provisions were highly unpopular in the South.

The Democratic Party split into two factions due to the issue of slavery. Stephen A. Douglass became the Northern Democrat candidate. He was a moderate on the slavery issue. John C. Breckinridge was selected by the Fireaters from the Deep South. Breckinridge supported extending slavery into territories whose voters did not want it. A fourth party called the Constitutional Union Party made up of die-hard former Southern Whigs and Know Nothings who felt they could support neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party was formed. They nominated John Bell of Tennessee for President. The party platform advocated compromise to save the Union, with the slogan “the Union as it is, and the Constitution as it is.”

The voter turnout rate in 1860 was the second-highest on record (81.2%, second only to 1876, with 81.8%). The voter turnout in 2008 of 56.8% was the highest for a Presidential election since 1968.

File:Abraham Lincoln by Alexander Helser, 1860-crop.jpg  File:John C Breckinridge-04775-restored.jpg

Nominee: Abraham Lincoln                        Nominee: John C. Breckinridge

Party: Republican                                          Party: Southern Democrat

% of Vote: 39.8%                                              % of Vote: 18.1%

Electoral Votes: 180                                      Electoral Votes: 72

  File:StephenADouglas.png

Nominee: John Bell                                        Nominee: Stephen A. Douglass

Party: Constitutional Union                          Party: Northern Democrat

% of Vote: 12.6%                                                % of Vote: 29.5%

Electoral Votes: 39                                         Electoral Votes: 12

As the 1850s progressed the firebrands in the North and South became more entrenched in their dogmatic positions. The Transcendental Generation Prophets came to power and compromise was no longer an option. Both Lincoln and Jefferson Davis were from this Prophet generation. Aging Prophets are always the moralistic drivers of Fourth Turnings. Strauss & Howe stress the importance of the Prophet Generation during a Fourth Turning:

A Crisis catalyst occurs shortly after the old Prophet archetype reaches its apex of societal leadership, when its inclinations are least checked by others. A regeneracy comes as the Prophet abandons any idea of deferral or retreat and binds the society to a Crisis course. A climax occurs when the Prophet expends its last burst of passion, just before descending rapidly from power.

The election of Abraham Lincoln proved to be the catalyst for the Crisis. Seven southern states seceded from the Union before Lincoln took office. The attack on Fort Sumter started a spiral of carnage and butchery that could not be reversed. The Crisis reached regeneracy after the Union debacle during the First Battle of Bull Run. Lincoln realized winning this war would require full mobilization and all out war. He ordered the enlistment of 500,000 soldiers, suspension of habeas corpus, taxation, and expansion of government power. The next four years were a swirl of savagery and unprecedented tragedy. It convulsed to a chaotic conclusion with the surrender at Appomattox and assassination of Lincoln in the same week. The Crisis exhausted itself with the climax seeming more like a defeat than a victory.

Are the actions of politicians 150 years ago worth understanding in order to determine how our current Crisis will develop? Since every Crisis period has the exact same generational configuration and generations react to events in similar manner, I believe it is worthwhile to examine the Civil War dynamics. Historian Gordon Leidner’s conclusions about the Civil War period are revealing:

  • Although the majority of the American people– including many moderate politicians like Abraham Lincoln–wanted to avoid Civil War and were content to allow slavery to die a slow, inevitable death, the most influential political leaders of the day were not.
  • On the southern side, “fire-eaters” like Robert Rhett and William Yancey were willing to make war to guarantee the propagation of their “right” to own slaves.
  • On the northern side, abolitionists like John Brown and Henry Ward Beecher of Connecticut were willing to make war in order to put an immediate end to the institution of slavery.
  • Southern politicians convinced their majority that the North was threatening their way of life and their culture. Northern politicians convinced their majority that the South, if allowed to secede, was really striking a serious blow at democratic government. In these arguments, both southern and northern politicians were speaking the truth–but not “the whole truth.”
  • It was also about the constitutional argument over whether or not a state had a right to leave the Union, and–of primary concern to most southern soldiers–the continuation of antebellum southern culture. Although the majority of Southerners had little interest in slaves, slavery was a primary interest of Southern politicians–and consequently the underlying cause of the South’s desire to seek independence and state rights.

The insights gained from the Civil War Crisis are that compromise and moderation are discarded. The firebrands control the field. The Prophets push for an all out war to settle the pressing issues of the day. They are willing to sacrifice the young in their moralistic fervor to satisfy their vision of the future. The final verdict will depend on the strength, judgment, and wisdom of the Prophet leaders during a Crisis.

2012 Election – Crisis Leader Sets Stage for Dark Days Ahead

  

     Nomad (Gen X)                         Prophet (Boomer)              Prophet (Boomer)

  

  Prophet (Boomer)                        Nomad (Gen X)                         Prophet (Boomer)

        Artist (Silent)

By 2012 we will have reached the 7th year of this Crisis. The linear thinking media and supposed “thought leaders” are convinced that the worst days of this Crisis have passed. They believe that the Federal Reserve and Government leaders have taken the proper actions to avert a Great Depression. They will be shocked when the Crisis deepens and gets far worse than today. Every action taken by our leaders since 2005 has  worsened the Crisis. Rather than letting the culprits of the financial crisis fail, they have propped up these criminal institutions with taxpayer funds. By not accepting the pain early in this Crisis, these leaders have ensured that this Crisis will be more tragic, brutal and wrenching. The mood of the country continues to darken, even as the mainstream media and government cheerleaders falsely insist that things are getting better.

By year 7 of the American Revolution Crisis, George Washington was on the verge of defeating the British at Yorktown and bringing that Crisis to a positive conclusion. The Civil War Crisis had concluded with Union victory by year 5. The Great Depression/WWII Crisis was in a lull period, with GDP growing by 13% in 1936 as government spending and personal consumption surged. The economy gave the appearance of recovery because FDR’s New Deal programs created make work schemes using government funds. Americans know the 1930s as the Great Depression. As proof of how meaningless GDP calculations are versus how real Americans are affected, the GDP increased by 63% in the four year period between 1934 and 1937. Despite this phenomenal growth, the unemployment rate remained at 17%. In comparison, GDP has advanced by only 5.1% from the bottom in the 2nd quarter of 2009 until today and the unemployment rate on a comparable basis is 23%. Franklin Delano Roosevelt won the 1936 election over Alfred Landon in one of the greatest landslides in history, with 523 electoral votes to Landon’s 8.

The current Crisis appears to be in a lull similar to the 1930s. Government actions can mask deeper problems for awhile, but pressure continue to build. The problems did not go away. The bad debts did not disappear. The Wall Street criminals are still free to loot the American middle class. No one has been prosecuted for the greatest financial fraud in history. The National Debt continues to balloon by $4 billion per day. The USD is slowly being replaced as the worldwide reserve currency. Political ideologues have taken control of both parties. Worldwide trade tensions and social contract broken promises are leading to riots and chaos across the Europe. The onset of peak cheap oil is raising prices for fuel and food and setting the stage for coming resource wars. Fundamentalist religious leaders are pushing for a religious war between Christianity and Islam. The extremists are gaining control of the agenda.

The sudden shift in mood has occurred. The hard working middle class of this country are frustrated, angry and feel betrayed by their leaders. The American people are fed up with all politicians. The liberal ideologues and conservative ideologues have staked out immovable positions on social, financial, and foreign trade issues. Compromise is as likely as it was in 1860. The Tea Party will not compromise. Their agenda is to change politics in Washington DC. They will be a thorn in both party’s side. The possibility of the Tea Party becoming a 3rd party is quite possible. This brings us to the 2012 Presidential election. The current configuration of Congress guarantees that absolutely nothing will get done in the next two years. Both parties will ignore the looming disaster of debt, devaluation, and depression as they position themselves for the 2012 election. The Crisis has not yet entered the regeneracy stage. This is the stage where the country unifies behind a leader and deals with the sudden threats that previously have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. The likely threats are the National Debt, a currency collapse, the Christian/Muslim conflict, Peak Oil, the rise of China, or more likely a combination of some of these issues.

Strauss & Howe‘s words regarding the approaching Crisis, written in 1997, are eerie and haunting:

“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability –  problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.”

As I try to assess the next phase of this Crisis, I have been seeking guidance from previous Fourth Turnings. At this juncture, the Crisis seems to have aspects of the Great Depression/World War II and Civil War Fourth Turnings. A financial crisis morphed into recession, much like the 1929 Crash and subsequent recession. Like the Great Depression, government borrowing and spending has given the false hope of recovery. The difference is that  government actions have failed to generate a strong rebound in GDP and unemployment continues to ratchet higher. A landslide election victory by Barack Obama in 2012 is not only impossible; he may not even be the Democratic nominee. The 2012 Presidential election is already destined to be a defining moment in our country’s history. The future path, intensity and pain of this Crisis will be greatly impacted by the outcome of this election. The darkening skies of Crisis are likely to become more threatening by 2012.

A recent Gallup poll gives an early indication of the likely Republican nominee in 2012. The front runners (Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin) have remained static, while the firebrands (Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee) have gained ground. The move towards a moralistic Prophet summoner of human sacrifice is not a surprise. The financial and world events that lead up to the 2012 election will determine which candidate is selected from the Republican field. The firebrands are likely to push to resolve ever-deepening moral choices through military force.

November 2010: Which of These Candidates Would You Be Most Likely to Support for the Republican Nomination for President in 2012? Based on Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents

Usually an incumbent President can be sure of re-nomination as the Democratic candidate, but Obama’s popularity is so low and his effectiveness as President has been so wanting that a challenge from Hillary Clinton is a distinct possibility. Clinton has the Prophet persona and would command the respect of Americans looking for foreign relations expertise. A failed challenge to Obama’s nomination would likely weaken Obama and allow the Republican candidate an easy victory. A potential wildcard would be an insurgent independent campaign by billionaire Michael Bloomberg. His financial background and moderate positions on social issues could attract moderate Republican and Democratic voters. Another possibility is that the Tea Party is unable to assimilate within the Republican Party and decides to nominate its own candidate. This could lead to an 1860 like situation, with four candidates vying for the Presidency. The victor in this scenario might need to be selected by the Electoral College. The next President could be elected with less than 40% of the popular vote. Could this election result lead to secession movement? Will large segments of the population not accept the election verdict?

Will America Survive this Fourth Turning?

 

 

We are poised on the brink of the regeneracy phase of this Fourth Turning. The open question is what incident or events will lead to Americans rallying around a Prophet leader. Regeneracy during the American Revolution occurred in 1776 with the Declaration of Independence. It occurred during the Civil War when Lincoln demanded full mobilization and total war after the Battle of Bull Run. The election of FDR in 1932 produced a regeneracy based upon his New Deal policies. The issues confronting our nation appear intractable. The government “solutions” to the initial phase of this Crisis have been to paper over bad debts, prop up insolvent financial institutions, defer hard entitlement choices, debase the currency in an effort to alleviate overwhelming levels of government debt, ignore the imminent implications of cheap peak oil, and waging never ending lifeblood draining wars on terror. Ben Bernanke, a self described “expert” on the Great Depression, and his Federal Reserve, which has inflated away 96% of the USD purchasing power since 1913, will be the likely culprit in the next phase of this Crisis. Countries around the world are scrambling to reduce their exposure to the USD. Ben Bernanke has proven unable to comprehend the most basic economic signals (housing collapse, derivatives, Wall Street fraud). He will be blindsided by the sudden collapse of the US currency.

It is likely that phase two of this financial Crisis will lead to the election of a dogmatic Republican Prophet Boomer in 2012. This person will take office in January, 2013, eight years into this Fourth Turning. They will be faced with the realization that peak cheap oil is a fact, as even the linearist thinkers realize that technology and green energy will not provide the bumper sticker solution for our oil dependent society. The devastating combination of a currency collapse, oil supply shortages, and the draining war on terror will either unify the country behind the Prophet leader in their effort to save the country or it could result in the country’s fabric tearing apart with the Federal government losing control of sections of the country. A World War over dwindling natural resources is easily foreseeable. The actual denouement of events remain a mystery. Much will depend on the leader we choose. Much will depend on the strength, fortitude, and sacrifice of the American people.

Strauss & Howe provide four possible outcomes to our current Crisis:

  1. This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.
  2. The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.
  3. The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.
  4. Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.

The Fourth Turning is not a prophecy of doom. It is not some sort of Nostradamus like prediction of what will happen on a certain date. The Fourth Turning is part of a cycle of history tied to a long human life that has happened before and hopefully will happen again. Our trials await. Will America respond with strength of character, wise choices, and a willingness to sacrifice for future unborn generations? It is time to find out.

 

For everything there is a season, and a time for every matter under heaven: A time to be born, and a time to die;
a time to plant, and a time to pluck up what is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal;
a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh;
a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to throw away stones, and a time to gather stones together;
a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to seek, and a time to lose;
a time to keep, and a time to throw away;
A time to tear, and a time to sew;
a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate;
a time for war, and a time for peace.
                                                              Ecclesiastes 3: 1-8

 

 

   

 

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Dalriada
Dalriada

Seems to me this fourth turning could revolve around a tug of war between complexity and simplicity; with simplicity winning the day. The length of the transition from one state to the other may vary for each, but some notions below:

1) Complicated financial system devolving rapidly to a simpler one (restored metal standard?)
2) Hightech integrated world spiraling downward (perhaps unevenly) to some new lower static state (which might overshoot to the downside first, before a modest rebound). Anyone ever heard of the games Shadowrun or Gammaworld? Unequal yet coexisting states of being (probably differentiated by haves vs have nots in formerly developed nations).
3) Hyper-regulated nations ultimately deteriorating into near chaotic/freedom loving (libertarian-like) states- much as the early U.S. once was.
4) Overpopulated world spiraling toward a sparsely populated one (again perhaps unevenly at first and maybe overshooting to the downside before a rebound to a sustainable new level)
5) Energy intensive world, ending in an energy depleted world.
6) Agriculturally stable world reverting to an inherently unstable, highly weather dependant one.

An epic battle between artificial/unsustainable techno complexity and natural & often chaotic simplicity (J. Tainter)- Playing out for the first time on a truly world scale, as a result of global population overshoot (Wm. Catton) and encroaching resource depletion (Campbell, Simmons and all).

Often throughout history a warlike state of affairs has generated fabulous new technologies (radar, anesthesia, penicillin, etc.). This turning for perhaps only the second recorded time (Rome), could actually terminate more advances than it creates?!

Thoughts? Be gentle, the vaseline is running low…

Thinker

Jim, you should also do a profile of the presidents who preceded Lincoln and Roosevelt. Buchanan and Hoover did much to set the stage for their 4Ts… it’s fascinating to compare their actions with what’s happening today. Just a thought.

MOHAMMED N. RAZAVI, DALEVILLE, AL

Comparing today to any previous time in history is useless, the problems of today , of exporting of jobs, the technology, the trade laws, the deficits, the money and stock market manipulations, the lowest tax rates of the century, the corruption, of politicians and the rich and the law enforcement, the decimation of the middle class, the long lifespan, the unreal expenses of the health care and the education needed to survive, and not to speak of the moral and educational decline of the citizens combined with too much, and baseless self confidence along with lack of motivation and knowledge of the world around us, we are in uncharted territory , blind folded and on our knees, any one claiming to know what the hell they are doing and how to resolve it is a liar or an ignorant jerk, Bernanke, the president and Rush Limbaugh etall included

Topper Hidrow Carban
Topper Hidrow Carban

Mohammed,

I agree, trying to compare today with yesterday to predict whats going to happen tomorrow doesn’t work. Maybe a little, but not much. In any case, you may also want to get your vaseline ready.

ssgconway
ssgconway

One other Fourth Turning comes to mind in reading this fine article – that of 5th Century, BC Athens. One of my old profs, Finley Hooper, even wrote about it (though w/o using the term) in his book, “Greek Realities.” After their Greatest Generation twice defeated persia 9the first time almost alone), they set up a NATO-like Delian league, where each member could contribute money or ships. All but two chose to send money, and Athens ended up moving the treasury from Delos to their city, eventually using it to finance their Boomer era of the Acropolis, etc. The Golden Age, of Pericles, the playwrights, philosophers, sculptors, etc, was upon them. Then they developed a triumphalist sense of exceptionalism, and, as a democracy, ended up voting to go to war, eventually, with nearly all of the Hellenic world. Even then, as Thucydides makes clear, they nearly pulled it off. When faced with one last chance to fight or make peace, their Prophet leaders chose war, and the women of Athens even consented to be shorn of their hair for it to be used in making ropes to rig one final fleet. it, too, was destroyed.
The result of defeat was loss of empire, demilitarization at the hands of Sparta’s coalition, and the loss of democracy to the oligarchy of the Thirty Tyrants. (Athens was spared destruction because of their pleas for remembrance of the Marathon Generation, some of whom, like our Pearl harbor survivors from our Greatest Generation, were still among the living. One can imagine an America, in defeat, bringing up D-Day and the defeat of fascism in defense of the excesses of our imperium.) Socrates was tried and executed at this time, and people lost faith in ‘the polis’ as the organizing principle of life and culture. As an American, I certainly hope for a better resolution, but as Jim Q. points out, there is no guarantee of a successful resolution to a Fourth Turning, and looking back at how Athens squandered, time and again, chances to end her wars of decent terms may prove worth remembering as we face the unknown path before us.

Thinker

ssgconway, an excellent example. History is full of fourth turnings — they repeat with incredibly regularity. The real shame is that humans never learn from the past, or refuse to admit that it does, indeed, repeat. The issues and problems are somewhat different each time, but the repetition of behavior is still there.

Bruce C.
Bruce C.

Interesting article and theory. However, I don’t quite follow your reasoning from the statement that, “this is only the beginning of a 20 year period of turmoil, chaos and war” and your four hypothetical outcomes. “America” could easily end by turmoil from within without firing a single shot, and if number 4 is as good as it reads then I fail to see how that evolves out of chaos and war.

Also, I don’t think that the “economic dimension” that we have today will “eventually led to a do or die all out war.” Not only do I think Americans today are beyond fed up with wars, I don’t think we’ll be able to afford one. I think the financial crisis will precede the energy crisis so by the time a resource grab seems necessary we’ll be ham-strung economically. The old “print money” method of financing war will have been used up in fighting deflation.

Smokey
Smokey

Lots of talk on this thread of vaseline. If any of you run low, I think it is safe to say that RE keeps on hand 55 gallon drums of it for when Goldorack and Novista drop by his place for some hot action.

llpoh
llpoh

Dalriada – welcome. You look reasonably sane, so shouldn’t need the vaseline too often. We will see how you go when the Admin puts up a middle east article, and a 9/11 conspiracy thread. It is then that all will be revealed.

llpoh
llpoh

The National Popular Vote bill could guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldn’t be about winning states. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. Every vote, everywhere would be counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.

Now 2/3rds of the states and voters are ignored — 19 of the 22 smallest and medium-small states, and big states like CA, GA, NY, and TX. The current winner-take-all laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) used by 48 of the 50 states, and not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution, ensure that the candidates do not reach out to all of the states and their voters. Candidates have no reason to visit, organize, campaign, or care about the voter concerns in the dozens of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Policies important to the citizens of ‘flyover’ states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes—enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.

The bill has been endorsed or voted for by 1,922 state legislators (in 50 states) who have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls in closely divided battleground states: CO– 68%, IA –75%, MI– 73%, MO– 70%, NH– 69%, NV– 72%, NM– 76%, NC– 74%, OH– 70%, PA — 78%, VA — 74%, and WI — 71%; in smaller states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE –75%, ME — 77%, NE — 74%, NH –69%, NV — 72%, NM — 76%, RI — 74%, and VT — 75%; in Southern and border states: AR –80%, KY — 80%, MS –77%, MO — 70%, NC — 74%, and VA — 74%; and in other states polled: CA — 70%, CT — 74% , MA — 73%, MN – 75%, NY — 79%, WA — 77%, and WV- 81%.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in AR (6), CT (7), DE (3), DC (3), ME (4), MI (17), NV (5), NM (5), NY (31), NC (15), and OR (7), and both houses in CA (55), CO (9), HI (4), IL (21), NJ (15), MD (10), MA(12), RI (4), VT (3), and WA (11). The bill has been enacted by DC, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Washington. These seven states possess 76 electoral votes — 28% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

LLPOH

Doppelganger LLPOH above, please identify yourself.

Personally, I prefer the proposal where if 2/3rds of the states vote to kill a federal law, it is killed. I think the Obamacare law would be dead as a dodo if that one were enacted.

Bruce C.
Bruce C.

Administrator,

Thanks for your response.

I realized after I wrote that comment that one could interpret it in the way you did. I agree that humans are resilient and lessons can be learned and advances or improvements result. However, (and maybe I’m reading too much into this 4th Turning theory ) it seems to me that this pattern of periodic crises that always involve major war has reached its limit. I don’t believe that history can or does or must simply repeat itself adnauseum, even if people don’t learn from it. If there is a next major/world/total war then I think its game over for the species. But even if I’m wrong about that, that a “super” W.W.II can be wrought (I’m assuming each 4th Turning war is worse than the one before it) and somehow enough people survive I would think that they would be so mentally and emotionally fried that it would be practically impossible to rebuild a new and improved world. Remember, it is the beliefs of the people living today who have created the current situation and that will dictate how it plays out. If those beliefs don’t change – and surviving a nihilistic war is a hell of a way to do it – then the basis of the new world that evolves will be based upon some horrendous ideas. By all accounts the 50s were great, but out of the loins of those folks came the Boomers, a bunch of spoiled, cynical, anti-intellectual and anti-industrial brats. They became all that they criticized “the Establishment” for: “Greedy corporatists,” “lying politicians,” “military bullies,” “wasteful polluters,” “war mongers,” etc.

I think that pattern has run its course. Personally, I think most people know that, and the species will stop itself from self destruction.

Smokey
Smokey

Bruce C.—-I am inclined to agree with you regarding the war aspect. I share the opinion that if war plays any important role in upcoming world events–as in war for oil–then it is game fucking over. If China or Iran or Kuwait or Saudi Arabia is attacked for oil, then nukes will end up in the mix. I don’t see a small scale nuclear war, that shit is for keeps, and the radioactive fallout wipes out ALL of civilization.

Thinker

Agree with you, Jim. Two of our previous 4Ts have been followed by a High, but the Civil War 4T was followed by an Austerity. It all depends on whether the issues that lead us into the Crisis are resolved, and how they’re resolved. I guess we’ll find out soon enough…

Paul B
Paul B

The missing ingredient I fear in all of this is personal honesty. Ask yourself of the people you know, how many can you deal with on a handshake? What one generation tolerates, the next embraces. We as a people admire a skilled liar today. The harder all of this gets, the more people are truly put to the test, their character( an outdated concept) will be the key to our survival. I shake my head when I see a person crying over a homeless puppy but driving over someone in traffic while flipping the bird. I cant imagine how they will act when they are hungry. And what magical prophet will they rally to in desperation?
I see Rome. I see a beautiful wonderful country Im blessed to be a part of imploding. I barely pay my mortgage. I have enough silver to fill one hand. I am a skilled, detail driven carpenter who NEVER believed the fraud life Ive watched for 15 yrs. It was pride in your work, not volume. My beliefs are out of style. Now, with nothing, my mindset is at 44 yrs old there is a storm so massive, so devistating on the horizon I can’t find words for. A fevered scramble is happening for the last worth of America much like an estate sale, and its blamed on capitalism…publicly.
What kind of man or woman we are, what we do when no ones looking, I believe determines our suvival. In the end it is truly all you have.

CrazyCanuck
CrazyCanuck

JimQ,

Great article as always – but you seem to be enamored with butchers like Lincoln (an icon in Illinois I guess). He was responsible for the murder of 600,000 men to satisfy his holier than thou attitude supposedly against slavery – when he was really like most American Presidents (like the current fool Obama) taking kickbacks from Northerrn bankers to pay for his war and of course his election campaign!!

The Fourth Turning is an intersting tale – but as most American literature a little myopic – maybe the defining moment maybe somewhere other than the USA!

I’m Back – Look North. I cannot wait for the TBP welcome back. BRING IT ON!!

llpoh
llpoh

CrazyCanuck – Stuck has sworn us all to civility until a newbie has posted at least twice. We will count you as a newbie given your return status. Smokey abides by no such agreement, as you surely know. However, be warned that attacks against the Fourth Turning are generally met as though you are tearing pages out of the Bible. Your Obama comments will be well received by most. I read something not too flattering about Lincoln recently, so you may have a point about him.

Welcome back – but you seem destined for some flame wars, if I am any guess. Good hunting.

StuckInNJ
StuckInNJ

llpoh — The Stucky Rule of Kindness to Newbies does NOT extend to Canadians or other foreigners. Feel free to flame away immediately.

Mark Knight
Mark Knight

Interesting how people are so certain that we’re doomed. Isn’t that the definition of a crisis?

Jackson
Jackson

Another great essay, Administrator! Where do you get the time to research and write. I’m envious.

Mostly I agree with you. However, I have a somewhat different view of the turning points in American history. Here goes…

The Civil War was the second American Revolution. The Civil War changed a union of the states into an American state that began to be controlled by the central government.

Our next American Revolution was the McKinley American Empire Revolution. What Spain and the European powers had been and were, we became.

America’s fourth Revolution was the State Power grab. That occurred in 1913 with the income tax amendment, the establishment of the Federal Reserve, and the popular election of senators.

Our fifth Revolution was the New Deal which spread the spores of statism throughout the land.

The sixth Revolution in American was the post WW2 establishment of the national security state. A standing army, the secretive and powerful CIA, and overseas dipolmatic and military pressure have been its characteristics.

As for the next Revolution – your Fourth Turning – I’m undecided. My first thought is for more oppressive government control in the years to come. However, internet blabbermeisters, a threatened middle class, and the prospect of a declining America may lead to less oppression and… oh, it’s too Pollyannish, so I’ll leave it at that.

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