Tag: falling

Auto Sales Disappoint Despite Surging Incentives, “Worrisome Trends Are Taking Hold”

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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/01/2016 13:15 -0400

Just as we predicted, it seems – despite the “everything is awesome” jobs data – that auto sales exuberance has hit the wall of credit saturation. Despite a surge in incentives in Q1, GM US auto sales rose just 0.6% (drastically lower than 6.0% rise expectations) and Ford rose 7.8% (missing expectations of a 9.4% surge). As J.D.Power notes “there are worrisome trends below the surface” of auto sales and with inventories at levels only seen once in the last 24 years (and tumbling used car prices), the automakers have a major problem if this is anything but ‘transitory’.

It wasn’t just GM and Ford though:

  • *FIAT CHRYSLER MARCH U.S. AUTO SALES RISE 8.1%, EST. UP 14%
  • *FIAT CHRYSLER HALTED IN MILAN, LIMIT DOWN AFTER FALLING 4.9%
  • *HONDA MARCH U.S. AUTO SALES UP 9.4%, EST. UP 16%
  • *VOLKSWAGEN OF AMERICA MARCH AUTO SALES DOWN 10.4%
  • *TOYOTA MARCH U.S. AUTO SALES DOWN 2.7%, EST. UP 5.6%

U.S. light-vehicle deliveries, aided by low gasoline prices, rising discounts and favorable financing terms, have climbed 3.4 percent this year through February after rising 5.7 percent to a record 17.47 million in 2015. But on a selling-day-adjusted basis, new-vehicle retail sales in March are expected to fall 2 percent from a year ago, according to a joint sales forecast by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. It would be the first time there has been a year-over-year decline in sales on an adjusted basis since August 2010, Power and LMC say.

What is most troubling however is, as JD Power notes, the worrisome trends below the surface…

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The “Restaurant Recovery” Is Over: Casual Dining Sales Tumble For Fourth Straight Month

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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/25/2016 18:58 -0400

While the US manufacturing sector has been in a clear recession for the past year as a result of the collapsing commodity complex, so far the stable growth in low-paying service jobs – at least according to the BLS’ statistical assumptions – such as those of waiters and bartenders have kept the broader service economy out of contraction (even though recent Service PMI data has been downright scary).

 

This is now changing: as we showed a month ago, according to the lagged effect of the collapse of the Restaurant Performance Index, that party is over:


… just like it was in 2008;

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Oil Price Recovery Or “Dead Cat” Bounce

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Since the beginning of the year oil prices (using West Texas Intermediate Crude as a proxy) have bounced from their lows following the collapse last year. Many are speculating that the “damage has been done” and now prices should begin to recover, hopefully, to much higher levels in the near future.

My view is somewhat different as the recent recovery in prices has all the earmarks of a technical “dead cat” bounce rather than a fundamentally driven recovery story. Let’s start with the chart below which is a MONTHLY chart of oil prices as compared to a 4-year moving average.

Oil-Prices-Technical-4yrAvg-052814

The break below the long-term bullish trend suggests that a tremendous amount of technical damage has been done over the last nine months which is unlikely to be resolved in the short-term.

From an investor psychology view, many individuals were trapped by the collapse in oil prices. After buying into energy stocks near the peaks, many are now hoping for an opportunity to exit positions on the bounce. The dashed blue line shows the current downward trend of the 4-year moving average that will likely act as a confining resistance level for quite some time. Rallies in oil prices toward these levels will be met by investors looking to sell out of losing positions.

Furthermore, the number of net reportable crude contracts has surged from deeply depressed levels which has created a “short squeeze” in the underlying commodity prices. However, the last time that net reportable contracts were at the current levels, oil prices were over $100/bbl rather than $60. This data also suggests the recent bounce in oil prices is likely temporary as well.

Oil-Prices-NetContracts-052814

The current level of speculation in oil prices suggests that another leg down will likely come during the summer months particularly as supplies continue to build as global demand continues to slide.

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RIDICULOUS HOUSING PROPAGANDA FROM NAR & MSM

I’ve told myself to not even look at the highly manipulated statistical drivel put out by the government, corrupt organizations, and regurgitated and spun in a positive manner by the captured corporate media. Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.

I see Marketwatch with this blaring headline:

 

Existing-home sales rise 2.4% in July

 

They are breathlessly describing how this was better than expected, as if it proves we are in a housing recovery. Existing home sales always rise in July versus June because people need to move before school starts. This is a meaningless data point. The important data point is how it compares with the prior July. That is buried deep in the NAR press release.

Surprise, Surprise. Existing home sales FELL by 4.3% versus July of last year. That means the housing market is in decline.

Of course the scumbags at the NAR touted the 4.9% price increase over last July. They use annual data when it suits them. 

What they did not report is that home prices FELL between June and July from $223,300 to $222,900. They have been falling for months. Housing inventory grew by 3.5% over June and by 5.8% over last July. So you have declining sales and rising inventory on a year over year basis. That sure sounds like a recovery to me.

Investors still account for 29% of all sales, but that percentage is declining. The hedge funds are exiting and the flippers are panicking. Wait until prices fall another 5%. The rush for the exits will be on. First time buyers are still near historic long-term lows and will remain there for years.

Yes the MSM and the NAR are actually cheering for negative year over year sales results that put existing home sales at 1999 levels. Yippee. Let’s buy the all-time fucking high in the stock market.