EPIC WORLDWIDE FAIL

Nothing like a little Kunstler on a Monday morning to make you want to slit your wrists. This is a longer than normal depressingly accurate assessment of the world. Did you actually think this Fourth Turning would get better?

Zeitgeist Failure

By James Howard Kunstler
on September 10, 2012 8:28 AM

     In an age of gross zeitgeist dysfunction — when untruth, delusion, and deception rule – politics is mere advertising, which is to say surface shimmer playing on the public’s wish-fulfillment fantasies. The trouble at this moment in history is that the American public’s wishful fantasies are inconsistent with the circumstances that reality offers to us and the choices for action that they present.

     President Obama’s historical role will be seen as a wish-fulfillment totem for late 20th century progressive liberalism – the first black president. The Democratic Party apotheosized the genial young lawyer with his appealing family in order to demonstrate the triumph of social justice, which was their great struggle of the era. Evidence of that is the striking divergence from the get-go between Mr. Obama’s Hope and Change advertising and his sedulous defense of pervasive racketeering at the highest levels of polity once in office. Otherwise, you must decide whether he was a tool of the giant banks, or a dupe-made-hostage to them, or simply too clueless to understand what was required in 2009 – namely the break-up and reorganization of the banks plus hearty prosecution of their executives for massive swindling (along with reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act). I voted for him in 2008, by the way, since the wish-fulfillment motif moved me, and also because of the horrifying McCain-Palin opposition. 

     In office, then, Mr. Obama quickly proved to be a different breed of porpoise than the voters bargained for. He let the Wall Street privateers run amuck another four years, aided with colossal infusions of conjured-out-of-nothing “money” from the Federal Reserve. He let loose the demons of a high-tech totalitarian “security” state with every sort of electronic surveillance, citizen data-mining, and drone spying that innovation allowed. He stood silent like a Banana Republic store mannequin after the supreme court decided that corporations could buy elections (he could have pushed  loudly for legislation or even a constitutional amendment to redefine corporate “personhood”). And of course, he continued to prosecute the absurd war in Afghanistan where, after nine years, US forces are unable to accomplish the only aims of being there: to control the terrain and to moderate the behavior of the people who live there.

     Hence, the appalling spectacle of the Democratic convention last week, with its odor of ideological bankruptcy, stale rhetoric, and empty promises. The party seeks only validation of its cherished fantasy: the social justice of reelecting the first black president. And all it really has to offer is cheerleading to that end – with some social justice table-scraps tossed to the lesser totems of social justice politics: women, assorted ethnic minorities, and gays. 

     Meanwhile, the “advanced nations” of industrial civilization all spiral into coordinated disintegration, especially in the realm where economy meets finance. Economy is about what we actually do to stay alive: make things, trade things, grow things, run things. Finance is supposed to be about maintaining the flows of accumulated wealth to support these things we do – with a modest service charge for the financiers who do the work. But in the great divorce of truth from reality in our time, finance is only about pretending to maintain these “capital” flows. In fact, it has degenerated into a set of looting operations, swindles, frauds, and political dodges, and it is on the verge of blowing up.

     There’s a fair chance that global finance (and trade) will blow up this season leading to the US elections. The nations of Europe are stuck in an intractable predicament. The European Union can’t control the fiscal operations (taxing and spending) of its sovereign members, and it only pretends to be able to lend them the money to cover the interest payments on their previous loans. That shuck-and-jive is now headed for a climax. But the situation is not materially different in the USA and Japan. In one way or another, they are bankrupt, too, as are probably most of their commercial banks. China’s banks are certainly a fiasco, since they are government-run, with no independent accounting oversight whatsoever. China does have a big cushion of US Treasury holdings, huge stockpiles of industrial metals and cement, and many new tons of recently-acquired gold. But they are also hostage to the bankrupt West’s lost appetite for “consumer” goods, and tens of millions of laid-off Chinese factory workers could foment political upheaval in a delicate time of regime transition coming later this year.

     The antics of the ECB, the US Federal Reserve, and all the other central banks in conjuring ever more money-out-of-nothing draws us toward that event horizon where faith is lost in a faith-based money system. The only question really is whether wealth destruction (deleveraging, debt default) out-paces currency destruction (inflation). My own guess continues to be that wealth destruction wins that contest, with massive unpayable debt sucked into a black hole, and then all the advanced industrial nations waking up one oddly warm morning to find their standards of living destroyed.

     As a political matter in the face of all this, the big question is how we will reorganize daily life – the activities of a whole culture – to comport with the reality of a compressive contraction in economic reality. It also includes the shape and content of the consensus we construct to explain to ourselves what is happening. The obvious epic failure of the two major parties in the USA to even begin this necessary work may propel this country into an historic political convulsion to attend the financial implosion. Imagine, for instance, if the failure of international banks leads to the rapid paralysis of trade supply lines and then to empty shelves in American supermarkets.

     People complain about “the size and burden of government,” but our problems extend to the size and burden of everything, beginning with the number of human beings now vying to occupy the planet and moving to the size and scale of every activity supporting them. Truthful political leadership would engage in preparing the public for a long “to do” list of necessary tasks – from the return to Main Street economies that will follow the inevitable collapse of WalMart to the reorganization of food production when agri-biz style farming fails from scarcities of cheap oil, phosphates, and capital for revolving loans. Include also the rebuilding of transportation networks not based on cars and airplanes and the painful reconstruction of a monetary and banking system based on the rule of law.

      This is the true work of the future: the rebuilding of these systems. All the blather about “jobs” from the presidential convoys is based on looking backward to a way of life that is ending: the age of giant everything, especially corporations. The days of cubicle serfdom are numbered. Useful, gainful work in the decades ahead will be much more about how you fit into your local community.  The word “job” may even become obsolete – a curious artifact of the industrial past. Which party is preparing young people for local agriculture and all the value-added activities around it? Which party understands that the national chain-store model of trade is doomed and Main Streets all over America will have to be re-activated? Which party understands that we’re in the twilight of mass motoring and commercial aviation? And what are they doing to prepare for the implications of that?

     The two doddering parties want to promise more of what we’ve already got in a world that doesn’t have anymore of that to give. The result is likely to be that we will go through all the noisy motions of the 2012 elections only to find ourselves plunged into a political crisis possibly worse than the Civil War.

 

Sidebar on  How “Smart” We Think We Are

 

      TV commercial seen during the Women’s finals of the US Tennis Open:

      Cadillac is bragging that they have replaced the old dashboard knobs and toggles with a “smart” iPad-type control system. Has a car company ever done something so fucking stupid? The whole point of knobs and toggles is that you can keep your eyes on the road while adjusting things by feel. An iPad you actually have to look at to see what you’re tapping on. Expect a colossal death toll from buyers of the latest Cadillacs in the next couple of years. I suppose there’s poetic justice in the automobile age winding down on a note of such supernatural idiocy.

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22 Comments
Maddie's Mom
Maddie's Mom
September 10, 2012 10:20 am

When I saw this title, on a Monday, I knew it was Kunstler.

Maddie's Mom
Maddie's Mom
September 10, 2012 10:21 am

I think I’ll get another cuppa coffee to go with that razor blade…

ssgconway
ssgconway
September 10, 2012 10:51 am

My idea of long-term investment: An American Chestnut seedling. That’s up to 500 years of food, and high-quality wood, too, assuming some blight resistance in its’ parent(s). It gets planted this week, out back by the vegatable garden.

John Angelo
John Angelo
September 10, 2012 11:05 am

Two VERY important quotes from this article:

“Economy is about what we actually do to stay alive: make things, trade things, grow things, run things.”

“The days of cubicle serfdom are numbered. Useful, gainful work in the decades ahead will be much more about how you fit into your local community.  The word “job” may even become obsolete – a curious artifact of the industrial past.”

Listen closely. This has major implications. The first simple quote defining “economy” has been lost amidst the “do it all, have it all, be it all, you’re a star” daily shuffle. “Economy” has unfortunately been defined in this generation through the second quote, i.e. what you “do.” The implication goes beyond the economy to define who we are as human beings. In any given survey, at least 4 out of 5 people are unhappy with what they do and would consider a change if given the opportunity. Since so many people today define “who they are” with “what they do” it describes a nation filled with many unhealthy and unhappy people. You can’t solve the physical or mental health problems by merely treating the symptoms because the problems will reemerge unless you attack the core of the problem. What is the core of the problem? I’ll define it using the words of Nine Inch Nails lead singer Trent Reznor from a hit they had in the 1990s: “Bow down before the one you serve; you’re going to get what you deserve.”

Who do you serve? What do you serve? What drives you? Answer that question honestly and you’ll be able to put your life and “what you do” in perspective. Are there answers? Absolutely. If you genuinely seek the truth you’ll be led to it. However, it’s your choice whether or not to accept it.

flash
flash
September 10, 2012 11:29 am

ssgconway My idea of long-term investment: American Chestnut seedling

Do tell.
I remember enjoying the nut of the American Chestnut as a child, but then eventually the last few succumbed to the blight.

I’ve planted the blight-free Chinese chestnuts as replacements , but the nut is smaller , mushier and not near as flavorful.

Have you found blight-free American chestnut seedlings then?

Kill Bill
Kill Bill
September 10, 2012 12:13 pm

Buy a manufacturing robot. Send it off to work each day with a tube of graphite grease and after it trods home, bypassing the bomb craters, thru the desolate martian-esque countryside sans animals, shrubs or trees, passes thru the radition cleanser and into the pressuized, filtered and sealed confines where you hook your bread winner into the recharger where a few credits are added to your increasing debt then call out ‘daddys home’ so the kids will come upstairs from the bunker where they have been watching a hologram of some guy with a staff and a women with a crown declaring how noble they are and what a great country you live in.

Pirate Jo
Pirate Jo
September 10, 2012 12:54 pm

Actually, I don’t find this depressing at all. The transition will be tough, but once the deadbeats die off, this sounds great!

subzero
subzero
September 10, 2012 1:10 pm

Getting your excess wealth through this period of history is of critical importance because it is going to get a lot harder to earn any excess after this collapse. People with large amounts of paper wealth that understand the current system are trapped in paper. They know there is not enough gold and silver to go around and any large purchases would expose that truth much faster.

They are buying up current production as fast as it appears on the market and competing with governments. Thirty trillion in private paper wealth is trapped in offshore accounts with no escape. There is simply no way to move that wealth into the comparatively tiny physical gold and silver markets without blowing the whole system sky high. Someone is going to panic and collapse will be upon us in an instant.

Only once this system collapses, whether coordinated and mostly nonviolent or chaotically with massive violence, and stability regained can people even begin to form an educated decision as to what to do or where to do it. Our clueless politicians are rapidly destroying the very foundations which made this country the envy of the world and a place to invest their excess wealth. Once those foundations are destroyed we are well and truly screwed for a long, long time.

Our options for a mostly non-violent solution, based on the application of a fair and honest rule of law, to our current situation become fewer every day. If chaotic violence breaks out I fear this country is going to explode with truly unpredictable results. This government is rapidly losing it’s legitimacy both domestically and internationally.

Thunderbird
Thunderbird
September 10, 2012 1:15 pm

A very reasonable assessment of the now and vision of the future. But this vision of returning community is just a vision. Looming in the background is the vision of communism or fascism suggested by our two political parties.

The community of the recent past was the result of the thinking of the past. People had different values then. For the majority of the population today it seems their value system is based in atheism or secular humanism. This is more conducive for a communist community. We have a generation that has been schooled for government jobs. And look how much government has grown at all levels in the past thirty years? Local governments have expanded it’s role and taken over private sector jobs using urban development programs and downright misuse of power to takeover other private enterprise. Local government has taken over trash collection, social services, assumed licensing and certification for non professional jobs, building code enforcement, utilities, management of section 8 properties and many other jobs that used to be private. This is the road to communism. Just look at the card carrying public union members and their attitudes. Do they not display the same attitude of the former card carrying communist party members of the former Soviet Union? For those that lived under the communist system in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe this was the reality.

Mr. Kunstler’s vision for the return of American community portray’s a great hope. Unfortunately it has competition with the Democratic Party’s vision of a new America and the less likely vision of the Republican view of a corporate run America. I prefer Mr. Kunstler’s vision but am also aware of the alternate realities facing our sleeping population.

ecliptix543
ecliptix543
September 10, 2012 1:18 pm

This government lost its legitimacy decades ago. If we as a citizenry weren’t so goddamned stupid, we’d have noticed in the early 70’s before these criminals had the chance to metastasize.

subzero
subzero
September 10, 2012 1:55 pm

“If a man consults whether he is to fight, when he has the power in his own hands, it is certain that his opinion is against fighting.” – Rear-Admiral Horatio Nelson (1801)

It’s going to come to a fight sooner or later but it’ll have to be forced onto us. What worries me is where does it end once the fighting starts? I see lots and lots of dead people. I wouldn’t be surprised at 200,000,000 in the contiguous states.

efarmer
efarmer
September 10, 2012 2:26 pm

“wouldn’t be surprised at 200,000,000 in the contiguous states.”

Wow, that leave a powerful odor .

EF

Thunderbird
Thunderbird
September 10, 2012 2:31 pm

Sheep and cattle don’t fight; they get used for food. The majority of the American herd is the same way. The goats in our society are not so tame; they will fight and be slaughtered.

subzero
subzero
September 10, 2012 2:39 pm

Most will die from being unprepared or from being unable to access critical services/supplies. Gonna be tough/impossible to control metro areas, IMHO.

subzero
subzero
September 10, 2012 2:57 pm

I should have amended that quote to read:

“If a (honest) man consults whether he is to fight (whereby he might have to kill someone), when he has the power in his own hands (to avoid killing anyone), it is certain that his opinion is against fighting.” – Rear-Admiral Horatio Nelson (1801)

Nelson lived in a different time than we do but I think the principle still applies. Eventually the honest, law abiding citizen is going to be backed into a corner and the only recourse is going to be to fight or give up your most precious principles. It’ll be a fight to the death because that’s what the other side is prepared for unless you submit. We’ll avoid it as long as possible but eventually they are going to push too hard and we won’t have a choice. I estimate as few as 100 people could bring this country to it’s knees in a day if they were organized and had access to the proper materials.

Hope@ZeroKelvin
Hope@ZeroKelvin
September 10, 2012 3:36 pm

Sheesh, this guy takes 11 paragraphs to say WE ARE DOOMED and that neither political party has any solutions, duh.

Kunstler is just phoning it in today.

But hey! At least no swipes at the South or NASCAR!

Outtahere
Outtahere
September 10, 2012 3:57 pm

“and also because of the horrifying McCain-Palin opposition.”
Yea, like they would have been sooooo much worse than what we have now. And I can’t stand
McCain!

subzero
subzero
September 10, 2012 4:17 pm

My warning to some of you that are not prepared with some amount of food/water is that no one really knows when the SHTF moment is going to occur. The difference between a terrorist and a patriot is simply one’s point of view. Our idiotic leaders think they can stop anything major from happening. I am not so sure. I think hiding is going to be metro peeps best defense. That means not having to go outside looking for food/water. The less you eat the less you have to worry about sanitation. Get a few five-gallon buckets with lids, some trash bags and some lime for that stuff. Piss in the sink. I think if things go on for three months that is pushing it.

Stop worrying about anyone invading the USA too. That’s idiotic. We have BOOMERS sitting in oceans all around the world. We don’t even know where they are at most of the time. Not to mention all the nuclear plants that are going to start melting down all over the place if they lose power.

And stop worrying about the government shooting you if you’re a law abiding citizen until you start shooting at them. As stupid as they are they are not that stupid to start shooting their meal ticket. You think the FSA is going to provide any tax revenue? Nope.

Somethings gonna set off the FSA and then the government is gonna do something really stupid and that’s gonna push us over the edge and then the SHTF.

flash
flash
September 10, 2012 5:27 pm

Is it big balls or crass stupidity that would prompt anyone to admit that they in fact did vote for Obama.

Sheesh. I’d bury that secret deep in a mine pit, sealed with lead and topped off with kryptonite .

Jimi d
Jimi d
September 10, 2012 10:00 pm

The first paragraph says it all !

So many millions of USA citizens will be absolutely fucked, screwed, lost, starved and desperate when the shit hits the fan ! They won’t know what hit them. Dancing with the Stars will not save them nor will FaceBook or txting on their cells. Even the wealthy may suffer pain as they have never seen it. My X wife has counseled men and woman at “Canyon Ranch” ( the luxury resort spa) that have never had to make a meal for themselves in their entire lives !

KaD
KaD
September 11, 2012 9:42 am

I spit in the face of nihlism and offer hope: http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/growth_is_the_problem_20120910//

The ceaseless expansion of economic exploitation, the engine of global capitalism, has come to an end. The futile and myopic effort to resurrect this expansion—a fallacy embraced by most economists—means that we respond to illusion rather than reality. We invest our efforts into bringing back what is gone forever. This strange twilight moment, in which our experts and systems managers squander resources in attempting to re-create an expanding economic system that is moribund, will inevitably lead to systems collapse. The steady depletion of natural resources, especially fossil fuels, along with the accelerated pace of climate change, will combine with crippling levels of personal and national debt to thrust us into a global depression that will dwarf any in the history of capitalism.

But growth has become uneconomic. We are worse off because of growth. To achieve growth now means mounting debt, more pollution, an accelerated loss of biodiversity and the continued destabilization of the climate. But we are addicted to growth. If there is no growth there are insufficient tax revenues and jobs. If there is no growth existing debt levels become unsustainable. The elites see the current economic crisis as a temporary impediment. They are desperately trying to fix it. But this crisis signals an irreversible change for civilization itself. We cannot prevent it.

Survival will be determined by localities. Communities will have to create collectives to grow their own food and provide for their security, education, financial systems and self-governance, efforts that Heinberg suspects will “be discouraged and perhaps criminalized by those in authority.” This process of decentralization will, he said, become “the signal economic and social trend of the 21st century.” It will be, in effect, a repudiation of classic economic models such as free enterprise versus the planned economy or Keynesian stimulus versus austerity. The reconfiguration will arise not through ideologies, but through the necessities of survival forced on the poor and former members of the working and middle class who have joined the poor. This will inevitably create conflicts as decentralization weakens the power of the elites and the corporate state.

The quality of our lives will depend on the quality of our communities. If communal structures are strong we will be able to endure. If they are weak we will succumb to the bleakness. It is important that these structures be set in place before the onset of the crisis, he says. This means starting to “know your neighbors.” It means setting up food banks and farmers’ markets. It means establishing a local currency, carpooling, creating clothing exchanges, establishing cooperative housing, growing gardens, raising chickens and buying local. It is the matrix of neighbors, family and friends, Heinberg says, that will provide “our refuge and our opportunity to build anew.”

“The inevitable decline in resources to support societal complexity will generate a centrifugal force,” Heinberg said. “It will break up existing economic and governmental power structures. It will unleash a battle for diminishing resources. This battle will see conflicts erupt between nations and within nations. Localism will soon be our fate. It will also be our strategy for survival. Learning practical skills, becoming more self-sufficient, forming bonds of trust with our neighbors will determine the quality of our lives and the lives of our children.”

TeresaE
TeresaE
September 11, 2012 10:31 am

Localism assumes the central state diminishes and I just don’t see it happening.

At least not for a long, long, time.

The ability to remain in power during disaster may surprise us. Especially if the entire world descends into darkness and chaos at the same time.

I hope I’m wrong. For my children’s sake, I truly hope I am wrong.