This was the headline on Marketwatch this morning:
U.S. home prices rise 0.6% in July
This was the truthful headline on Zero Hedge:
Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Nov 2011, 3rd Drop In A Row
Does this chart reflect rising or falling home prices?
The MSM propaganda peddlers pick and choose the data they present. They present seasonally adjusted employment, orders, homes sales, etc. But they decide not to present the seasonally adjusted figures for home prices when they show a large decline. The Case Shiller Index is a three month moving average, so the decline is even greater than the numbers presented. Home prices peaked months ago and are now headed down. That’s a fact Jack.
I wonder why they are burying this headline.
Confidence index fall sharply on concerns about job market
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The disappointing jobs report for August took a toll on the psyche of Americans: the consumer confidence index fell sharply in September and posted its first decline in five months.
The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 86.0 in September from a revised 93.4 in August, the nonprofit Conference Board said Tuesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the index to decline slightly, but not by as much as it did.
An index that looks at what consumers feel about the “present” state of the economy fell to 89.4 from 93.9. Another gauge that examines their outlook for the future slid to 83.7 from 93.1.
Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at board, said the August employment report apparently led many Americans to think the economy is slowing even though a ream of more recent data suggest growth remains fairly strong.
“A less positive assessment of the current job market, most likely due to the recent softening in growth, was the sole reason for the decline in consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions,” Franco said.
“All told, consumers expect economic growth to ease in the months ahead.” – Lynn Franco
The U.S. added 142,000 job in August to mark the smallest increase of 2014, according to preliminary figures. Yet economists expect jobs gains in the final full month of summer to be revised up, perhaps sharply, when the government issues its latest monthly snapshot of U.S. employment on Friday.
The percentage of consumers who said jobs are “plentiful” now fell to 15.1% from 17.6%. And more Americans thinks hiring will taper off in the months ahead than was the case in August.
“All told, consumers expect economic growth to ease in the months ahead,” Franco said.
America’s “All Important” Housing Market Flashing Red After Bad Data Double Whammy
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2014 10:12 -0400
Those who read Zero Hedge regularly will be aware that for us no other regional US housing market is more important than that of the San Francisco. Recall from June:
When it comes to critical housing markets in the US, none is more important than San Francisco.
Courtesy of its location, not only does it reflect the general Fed-driven liquidity bubble which is the tide rising all housing boats across the US, but due to its proximity to both Silicon Valley and China, it also benefits from two other liquidity bubbles: that of tech, and of course, the Chinese $25 trillion financial debt monster, where since the local housing bubble has burst, local oligarchs have no choice but to dump their cash abroad.
It is no surprise that during ever single previous bubble peak, San Francisco home prices managed to post a 20% annual increase, starting with the dot com bubble in the year 2000, the first (not to be confused with the current) housing bubble peaking around 2005, and then the European sovereign debt bubble.
Which is why, while today’s Case Shiller data was widely disappointing across the board, indicating a significant slowdown in price gains (and on a sequential seasonally adjusted basis, practically a decline), the one market we paid particular attention to was San Francisco. What we found is a red flag for everyone waiting to time the bursting of the latest housing bubble. Because after an unlucky 13 months of posting consecutive 20% Y/Y price gains, the San Francisco bubble appears to have finally burst, posting “just” an 18.2% price increase, the lowest since January of 2013.
Well, in the aftermath of yesterday’s data which beyond a reasonable doubt showed that the Chinese housing bubble has burst, we can now report that the “flashing red” market that is San Francisco was just smacked by a “double whammy” perfect storm, when not only was the annual increase in home prices the lowest it has been since October 2012 (but in the wrong direction), and next month the July double-digit Y/Y increase of 10.3% will once again be single digits, first positive and soon negative, an inflection which has in the past only happened when a major bubble has just burst as shown below…
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i stopped listening to the radio a long time ago. so, on my way to get my car inspected this morning, i thought i’d amuse myself by counting the “for sale” signs along the way. the trip is about 28 miles. i counted 52 signs. bullish!
Without a doubt, in my suburban location, there are a ton of for sale signs out, with the unspoken knowledge that there are at least double that amount if those thinking about putting their homes on the market had any realistic hope of selling them. Outside of the coasts, thr rugged interior is in shambles. There is no real real estate market anymore, just a few lucky sellers who break even after 20 years of ownership–and thats those that actually maintained their homes. Those that did not just turn into rentals.