MICKEY MOUSE CLUB

Russian Sanctions – Huge Mistake

MickyMouseClub

Politicians just keep making the same mistake over and over again. They perpetually turn to sanctions bankrupting private business with no respect whatsoever as the USA is wiping out farmers in Europe. But worst of all, there is not a single incident where sanctions have EVER worked even once. They often remain in place beyond a decade even as in Iran, but there is no change in politics.

Tomcat

Sanctions only make Putin stronger for they allow him to point to the West as the evil empire that covertly toppled the Soviet Union with a CIA plot. The most popular T-Shirt in Russia says this particular tree, which is also the name of a weapon, is not afraid of sanctions. The one in the middle says don’t make our missiles laugh (Iskander SS-26 Stone). The Mickey Mouse Club would be nice if there were really qualified people instead of questionable lawyers.

Why Is The USDA Buying Submachine Guns?

By Charles McFarlane of Modern Farmer

Why Is The USDA Buying Submachine Guns?

“Submachine guns, .40 Cal. S&W, ambidextrous safety, semi-automatic or 2 shot bur[s]t trigger group, Tritium night sights for front and rear, rails for attachment of flashlight (front under fore grip) and scope (top rear), stock-collapsib[l]e or folding, magazine – 30 rd. capacity.”

In May, the USDA’s Office of Inspector General filed a request for these weapons. But why exactly do they need them?

According to a USDA press rep, the guns are necessary for self-protection.

“OIG Special Agents regularly conduct undercover operations and surveillance. The types of investigations conducted by OIG Special Agents include criminal activities such as fraud in farm programs; significant thefts of Government property or funds; bribery and extortion; smuggling; and assaults and threats of violence against USDA employees engaged in their official duties,” wrote a USDA spokesperson.

Those seem like legitimate enforcement activities, but still: submachine guns? Not everyone believes the USDA being armed to the teeth is justifiable. On Aug. 2, the Farm to Consumer Legal Defense Fund launched a petition to support a bill that would curb the ability of agencies like the USDA to arm themselves. They see it as overkill and scare tactics, especially for smaller producers.

“What we have seen happen, with the FDA especially, is they have come onto small farms, raw milk producers, and raided the heck out of them with armed agents present,” says Liz Reitzig, co-founder of the Farm Food Freedom Coalition. “Do we really want to have our federal regulatory agencies bring submachine guns onto these family farms with children?”

The Farm to Consumer Legal Defense Fund petition focuses on two now infamous blows to the raw milk community – the 2010 and 2011 raids on Rawsome Food Club in Venice, California. These raids were carried out by armed federal agents, from the FDA and other agencies.

The OIG’s Investigation Development bulletins show there have been three incidents in the last year that involved firearms and two in which USDA agents were verbally threatened. Still, most of their enforcement operations surround white-collar fraud of government programs, often involving SNAP programs. “If there is fraud in the SNAP program, look at how it is implemented and make changes in the entire program,” says Reitzig. “Don’t bring machine guns onto farms.”

The Farm to Consumer Legal Defense Fund are not the only ones interested in taking guns out of the hands of USDA agents. Utah Congressman Chris Stewart is the sponsor of the bill on the FTCLDF petition. “At its heart it comes down to this: To myself, and for a lot of Americans, there is great concern over regulator agencies with heavy handed capabilities,” Rep. Stewart told Modern Farmer.

His bill, H.R. 4934, hopes “to prohibit certain federal agencies from using or purchasing certain firearms, and for other purposes.” When asked about the USDA’s plan for submachine guns, he said, “I can’t envision a scenario where what they are doing would require that.”

Another concern is simply accountability. The request for submachine guns from the USDA doesn’t say how many guns — asking them seems like a non-starter. “They have been very unhelpful in trying to find out any information about this,” said Rep. Stewart. “We couldn’t get answers — it doesn’t seem right to me.”

However, he also cautioned: “We have never argued that federal regulators don’t need to protect themselves.” But if USDA investigations were perceived to be potentially violent he suggested, “They should do what the rest of us do, call the local sheriff.”

How The Mooslims Continually Drive Me Into Supporting Da Joos

I really don’t wanna do that. But, Mooslims don’t give me much choice.

muslims police ok
Crazy Assed Son ‘o Bitches — Moderate Amurikan Mooslims

Muslims shouting ‘Praise Allah’ surround Oklahoma cops after a press conference on the beheading in Oklahoma, Sept. 26, 2014.

Cue for Zara to show Joo atrocities in 5 … 4… 3 …

Cue for others to lecture me on the difference between crazyfuk Mooslims and “moderate” peace loving Mooslims in 5 … 4… 3 …

Islam = sickest fucking modern day religion ever invented by mankind.

MES.

The New Tactic – When the Pentagon Wants A Conflict in A Country….Stage A Few Beheadings

 Guest Post by Kevin at Eco Explained

james-foley-beheading-hoax-green-screen

Apparently, all it takes for Americans to support a new armed conflict in Iraq and Syria are a couple of staged beheadings.

New Gallup polls show 60% of Americans support the initiative against ISIS.

PRINCETON, NJ — Americans’ 60% approval for U.S. military action against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria, commonly known as ISIS, is slightly below their average 68% approval for 10 other U.S. military operations Gallup has asked about using this question format. Americans have been a bit less supportive of recent military actions after prolonged engagements in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Approval/Disapproval for U.S. Military Actions After They Began

Bottom Line

Americans’ level of support for the current military action against Islamic militants in Iraq and Syria is below the historical average for support for other U.S. military interventions over the past 31 years, but still represents a majority of Americans. This marks a rare instance in which Republicans and Democrats share basically the same attitudes. However, partisanship comes back into play on the issue of potentially using ground troops in Iraq and Syria, which Republicans support and Democrats do not.

This is not to say all beheadings are staged, but in this particular instance there is sufficient evidence to remove credibility to the claims.

http://www.infowars.com/evidence-turkish-tv-staged-beheadings/

http://www.infowars.com/experts-james-foley-beheading-video-likely-fake/

http://www.infowars.com/staged-foley-beheading-used-as-poster-child-for-syria-attack/

http://www.infowars.com/flashback-cia-admits-to-staging-fake-jihadist-videos/

Add this to mounting evidence that discredits the entire narrative that ISIS is a threat: they are in fact an entirely fabricated, exaggerated enemy, created first by bombing other countries civilian populations to create the motive to radicalize, then recruiting and training and equipping a “real” army with our own weapons. It is a perfectly designed, full-circle, perpetual conflict.

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From TheGuardian

US jets have in the past six weeks bombed Humvees and US-made troop carriers in northern Iraq. Many were used by the US military during the nearly nine-year war and occupation, then handed over by US officers as they left Iraq. Others were bought directly from Washington.

Using such vehicles, Isis fended off assaults on Sunday in far the western Anbar province by Iraqi forces, backed by fighter jets. US jets again attacked Isis positions near the Haditha dam, the second one of Iraq’s two most important waterways, which has become a key target for jihadis.

Isis fighters drive a US-made Humvee  along the streets of Syria's northern Raqqa province

Isis fighters drive a US-made Humvee in Syria. The militants have so much heavy weapons and armoured transport that rival rebels cannot confront them. Photograph: Reuters

From WHOTV 

The United States is spending millions of dollars to destroy U.S. equipment in Iraq and Syria — gear the U.S. gave the Iraqi military that was later captured by ISIS forces.

The U.S has hit 41 Humvees since attacks began in August, according to data from United States Central Command.

The U.S. is sending $30,000-bombs to eliminate these armored vehicles, which cost about a quarter of a million dollars each depending what it is equipped with, according to Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

ISIS is also driving around a fleet of specialized Tacoma Pick Up trucks only made in Texas, specifically designed for US special forces. We were caught running guns to Mexican drug lords in the Fast and Furious scandal. We were caught running guns to Al Qaeda in Libya in the Benghazi scandal. So now why isn’t it reasonable to think we have entirely created the false enemy of ISIS, both running and funding this organization from top to bottom?!

http://www.infowars.com/isis-drives-texas-made-toyota-trucks-apparently-modified-for-u-s-special-forces/

http://willyloman.wordpress.com/2014/09/08/isis-weapons-property-of-the-u-s-government-photos/

enhanced-23174-1410122947-1

They also have US Anti Tank rockets.

isis-mosul-parade-3-thumb-560x315-3328

US Artillery

al-qaeda-us-aid

USAID Structures

Conclusion: America, if you don’t raise your IQ a few points you are going to walk out of the next Transformers sequel believing its American history. 

GENERATION WUSS

By Brett Easton Ellis via Vanity Fair

In February I gave an interview to Vice UK to help promote a film I had written and financed called The Canyons—I did the press because there was still the idea, the hope, that if myself or the director Paul Schrader talked about the film it would somehow find an audience interested in it and understand what it was: an experimental, guerilla DIY affair that cost $150,000 dollars to shoot ($90,000 out of our own pockets) and that we filmed over twenty days in L.A. during the summer of 2012 starring controversial Millennials Lindsay Lohan and porn star James Deen.

The young journalist from Vice UK asked me about the usual things I was preoccupied with in that moment: my admiration of Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street—the best film I saw in 2013 (not great Scorsese, but better than any other American film that year) and we talked about the movie I’m writing for Kanye West, my love of Terrence Malick (though not To The Wonder), a miniseries I was developing about the Manson murders for FOX (but because of another Manson series going into production at NBC the miniseries has now been cancelled), the Bret Easton Ellis Podcast (link), the possibility of a new novel I had begun in January of 2013 and that I lost interest in but hoped to get back to; we talked about my problems with David Foster Wallace, my love of Joan Didion, as well as Empire versus post-Empire (link) and we talked about, of course, The Canyons. But the first question the young journalist asked me wasn’t about the movie—it was about why I was always referring to Millennials as Generation Wuss on my Twitter feed. And I answered her honestly, unprepared for the level of noise my comments caused once the Vice UK piece was posted.

I have been living with someone from the Millennial generation for the last four years (he’s now 27) and sometimes I’m charmed and sometimes I’m exasperated by how him and his friends—as well as the Millennials I’ve met and interacted with both in person and in social media—deal with the world, and I’ve tweeted about my amusement and frustration under the banner “Generation Wuss” for a few years now. My huge generalities touch on their over-sensitivity, their insistence that they are right despite the overwhelming proof that suggests they are not, their lack of placing things within context, the overreacting, the passive-aggressive positivity, and, of course, all of this exacerbated by the meds they’ve been fed since childhood by over-protective “helicopter” parents mapping their every move.

These are late-end Baby Boomers and Generation X parents who were now rebelling against their own rebelliousness because of the love they felt that they never got from their selfish narcissistic Boomer parents and  who end up smothering their kids, inducing a kind of inadequate preparation in how to deal with the hardships of life and the real way the world works: people won’t like you, that person may not love you back, kids are really cruel, work sucks, it’s hard to be good at something, life is made up of failure and disappointment, you’re not talented, people suffer, people grow old, people die. And Generation Wuss responds by collapsing into sentimentality and creating victim narratives rather than acknowledging the realities of the world and grappling with them and processing them and then moving on, better prepared to navigate an often hostile or indifferent world that doesn’t care if you exist.

I never pretended to be an expert on Millenials and my harmless tweeting about them was solely based on personal observation with the reactions to the tweets predictably running along generational lines. For example, one of the worst fights my boyfriend and I endured was about the Tyler Clemente suicide here in the United States. Clemente was an 18 year-old Rutger’s University student who killed himself because he felt he was being bullied by his roommate Dharun Ravi. Ravi never touched Tyler or threatened him but filmed Tyler making out with another man unbeknownst to Tyler and then tweeted about it. Embarrassed by this web-cam prank, Tyler threw himself off the George Washington Bridge a few days later.

The fight I had with my boyfriend was about victimization narratives and cyber-“bullying” versus imagined threats and genuine hands-on bullying. Was this just the case of an overly sensitive Generation Wuss snowflake that made national news because of how trendy the idea of cyber-bullying was in that moment (and still is to a degree) or was this a deeply troubled young person who simply snapped because he was brought down by his own shame and then was turned into a victim/hero (they are the same thing now in the United States) by a press eager to present the case out of context and turning Ravi into a monster just because of a pretty harmless—in my mind—freshman dorm-room prank? People my age tended to agree with my tweets, but people my boyfriend’s age tended to, of course, disagree.

But then again my reaction stems from the fact that I am looking at Millenials from the POV of a member of one of the most pessimistic and ironic generations that has ever roamed the earth—Generation X—so when I hear Millenials being so damaged by “cyber-bullying” that it becomes a gateway to suicide—it’s difficult for me to process. And even my boyfriend agrees that Generation Wuss is overly sensitive, especially when dealing with criticism. When Generation Wuss creates something they have so many outlets to display it that it often goes out into the world unfettered, unedited, posted everywhere, and because of this freedom a lot of the content displayed is rushed and kind of shitty and that’s OK—it’s just the nature of the world now—but when Millennials are criticized for this content they seem to collapse into a shame spiral and the person criticizing them is automatically labeled a hater, a contrarian, a troll.

And then you have to look at the generation that raised them, that coddled them in praise—gold medals for everyone, four stars for just showing up—and tried to shield them from the dark side of life, and in turn created a generation that appears to be super confident and positive about things but when the least bit of darkness enters into their realm they become paralyzed and unable to process it.

My generation was raised by Baby Boomers in a kind of complete fantasy world at the height of the Empire: Boomers were the most privileged and the best educated children of The Great Generation, enjoying the economic boom of post-World War II American society. My generation realized that like most fantasies it was a somewhat dissatisfying lie and so we rebelled with irony and negativity and attitude or conveniently just checked-out because we had the luxury to do so. Our reality compared to Millennial reality wasn’t one of economic hardship. We had the luxury to be depressed and ironic and cool. Anxiety and neediness are the defining aspects of Generation Wuss and when you don’t have the cushion of rising through the world economically then what do you rely on? Well, your social media presence: maintaining it, keeping the brand in play, striving to be liked, to be liked, to be liked.

And this creates its own kind of ceaseless anxiety. This is why if anyone has a snarky opinion of Generation Wuss then that person is labeled by them as a “douche”—case closed. No negativity—we just want to be admired. This is problematic because it limits discourse: if we all just like everything—the Millennial dream—then what are we going to be talking about? How great everything is? How often you’ve pressed the like button on Facebook? The Millennial site Buzzfeed has said they are no longer going to run anything negative—well, if this keeps spreading, then what’s going to happen to culture? What’s going to happen to conversation and discourse?

If there doesn’t seem to be an economic way of elevating yourself then the currency of popularity is just the norm now and so this is why you want to have thousands and thousands of people liking you on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Tumbler—and you try desperately to be liked. The only way to elevate yourself in society is through your brand, your profile, your social media presence. A friend of mine—also a member of Generation Wuss—remarked that Millennials are more curators than artists, a generation of “aestheticists…any young artist who goes on Tumbler doesn’t want to create actual art—they either want to steal the art or they want to BE the art.”

I forgot about the Vice interview but was reminded of it due to a minor explosion that occurred after it was posted and the term Generation Wuss received an inordinate amount of press and I was immediately asked to appear on talk shows and podcasts and radio programs to discuss “the phenomenon” of Generation Wuss. The people who agreed with my casual, tossed-off assessments skewed older but I was surprised by the number of young people who agreed with me as well, Millennials who also had complaints about their generation.

The older people wanted to share examples: a father related a story how he remembered watching in frustration as his son participated in a tug-of-war game with his classmates on the field of his elementary school and after a minute or two the well-meaning coach announced the game was officially a tie, told the kids they did a great job, and everyone got a ribbon. Occasionally there were darker stories: guilt-ridden parents chastising themselves for coddling kids who when finally faced with the normal reality of the world drifted into drugs as an escape…from the normal reality of the world. Parents kept reaching out and told me they were tormented by this oppressive need to reward their kids constantly in this culture. That in doing so they effectively debilitated them from dealing with the failures we all confront as get older, and that their children were unequipped to deal with pain.

I didn’t appear on any of the talk shows because I don’t pretend to be an expert on this generation any more than I feel I’m an expert on my own: I don’t feel like that old man complaining about the generation supplanting his. As someone who throughout his own career satirized my generation for their materialism and their shallowness, I didn’t think that pointing out aspects I noticed in Millennials was that big of a deal. But in the way that the 24-48 hour news cycle plays itself out I briefly was considered an “expert” and I kept getting bombarded with emails and tweets.

What the Vice interview didn’t allow was that because I’ve been living with someone from this generation I’m sympathetic to them as well, remembering clearly the hellish year my college-educated boyfriend looked for a job and could only find non-paying internships. Add in the demeaning sexual atmosphere that places a relentless emphasis on good looks (Tinder being the most prevalent example) in such a superficially nightmarish way it makes the way my generation hooked-up seem positively chaste and innocent by comparison.

So I’m sympathetic to Generation Wuss and their neurosis, their narcissism and their foolishness—add the fact that they were raised in the aftermath of 9/11, two wars, a brutal recession and it’s not hard to be sympathetic. But maybe in the way Lena Dunham is in “Girls” a show that perceives them with a caustic and withering eye and is also sympathetic. And this is crucial: you can be both. In-fact in order to be an artist, to raise yourself above the din in an over-reactionary fear-based culture that considers criticism elitist, you need to be both. But this is a hard thing to do because Millennials can’t deal with that kind of cold-eye reality. This is why Generation Wuss only asks right now : please, please, please, only give positive feedback please.

RESOURCE WARS

The two articles below reflect the desperate times that lie ahead. Despite the propaganda and misinformation about the wars in the Middle East and in the Ukraine being about terrorism and the noble spreading of democracy, they are solely being fought over energy resources. Iraq has the 5th highest proven oil reserves in the world, behind Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Canada, and Iran. They have 6 times the reserves of the United States. We aren’t going to war against 30,000 ISIS terrorists. We are protecting “our” oil. The Israeli/U.S. fear mongering and sanctions against Iran are to weaken a country that sits on top of 151 billion barrels of “our” oil. A nuclear Iran could not be invaded without potential dire consequences for the invader.

The war against Syria is about a gas pipeline that Saudi Arabia and Qatar want to build across their land to Europe. This is because Russia has complete control over the fate of Europe with their gas pipelines through the Ukraine. The America/EU engineered overthrow of a democratically elected government in the Ukraine was simply because the president was moving closer to Russia and away from the EU/U.S. alliance. The propaganda about evil Putin and the false flag shooting down of a Malaysian airliner are nothing but chess pieces in the global resource war.

Russia has the 8th highest level of proven oil reserves on the planet. The new discovery in the arctic could up those reserves dramatically. This would really throw a monkey wrench into the U.S./EU plan to try and make Putin bow to their economic pressure. The U.S. leadership knows the shale oil and shale gas “miracle” is essentially a Wall Street engineered fraud that will peak out in the next few years and then decline precipitously. They are desperately seeking a solution, but Russia and China have begun to foil their plans.

The various competing factions and ideologies in the U.S. are setting us up for a nasty turn of events. The neo-cons, military industrial complex, and greenies have blocked all rational methods of expanding the use of safer, cheaper, and smaller nuclear energy technologies. The military like the existing nuclear power plants because they provide the uranium needed for their weapons. Meanwhile the Chinese are treating nuclear power solutions like a Manhattan Project. Obama shuts down coal powered plants, even though we have ample supplies of coal under our feet. While we fiddle, our future burns.

As worldwide peak cheap oil becomes more expensive, the worldwide economy will continue to slow. As the shale boom goes bust, we produce less energy from coal, and our nuclear expansion wallows in cost overruns and bureaucracy, the only option will be war. The oligarch billionaires will use their control of the media and politicians to peddle stories of imminent threats, terrorists, and evil empires, as their excuse to go to war. But the wars will be about energy resources, as they have always been. This Fourth Turning will end with a showdown between the U.S./EU and Russia/China. I have a feeling their won’t be any winners.

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” ― Albert Einstein

 

Russia Discovers Massive Arctic Oil Field Which May Be Larger Than Gulf Of Mexico

Tyler Durden's picture

In a dramatic stroke of luck for the Kremlin, this morning there is hardly a person in the world who is happier than Russian president Vladimir Putin because overnight state-run run OAO Rosneft announced it has discovered what may be a treasure trove of black oil, one which could boost Russia’s coffers by hundreds of billions if not more, when a vast pool of crude was discovered in the Kara Sea region of the Arctic Ocean, showing the region has the potential to become one of the world’s most important crude-producing areas, arguably bigger than the Gulf Of Mexico. The announcement was made by Igor Sechin, Rosneft’s chief executive officer, who spent two days sailing on a Russian research ship to the drilling rig where the find was unveiled today.

The oil production platform at the Sakhalin-I field in Russia,
partly owned by ONGC Videsh Ltd., Rosneft Oil Co., Exxon Mobil
Corp. and Japan’s Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development Co. on June 9, 2009.

Well, one person who may have been as happy as Putin is the CEO of Exxon Mobil, since the well was discovered with the help of America’s biggest energy company (and second largest by market cap after AAPL). Then again, maybe not: as Bloomberg explains the well was drilled before the Oct. 10 deadline Exxon was granted by the U.S. government under sanctions barring American companies from working in Russia’s Arctic offshore. Rosneft and Exxon won’t be able to do more drilling, putting the exploration and development of the area on hold despite the find announced today.”

Which means instead of generating billions in E&P revenue, XOM could end up with, well, nothing. And that would be quite a shock to the US company because the unveiled Arctic field may hold about 1 billion barrels of oil and similar geology nearby means the surrounding area may hold more than the U.S. part of the Gulf or Mexico, he said.

For a sense of how big the spoils are we go to another piece by Bloomberg, which tells us that “Universitetskaya, the geological structure being drilled, is the size of the city of Moscow and large enough to contain more than 9 billion barrels, a trove worth more than $900 billion at today’s prices.

The only way to reach the prospect is a four-day voyage from Murmansk, the largest city north of the Arctic circle. Everything will have to shipped in — workers, supplies, equipment — for a few months of drilling, then evacuated before winter renders the sea icebound. Even in the short Arctic summer, a flotilla is needed to keep drifting ice from the rig.

Sadly, said bonanza may be non-recourse to Exxon after Obama made it quite clear that all western companies will have to wind down operations in Russia or else feel the wrath of the DOJ against sanctions breakers. Which leaves XOM two options: ignore Obama’s orders (something which many have been doing of late), or throw in the towel on what may be the largest oil discovery in years.

And while the Exxon C-suite contemplates its choices, here is some more on today’s finding from Bloomberg:

“It exceeded our expectations,” Sechin said in an interview. This discovery is of “exceptional significance in showing the presence of hydrocarbons in the Arctic.”

 

The development of Arctic oil reserves, an undertaking that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars and take decades, is one of Putin’s grandest ambitions. As Russia’s existing fields in Siberia run dry, the country needs to develop new reserves as it vies with the U.S. to be the world’s largest oil and gas producer.

 

Output from the Kara Sea field could begin within five to seven years, Sechin said, adding the field discovered today would be named “Victory.”

Duh.

The Kara Sea well — the most expensive in Russian history — targeted a subsea structure named Universitetskaya and its success has been seen as pivotal to that strategy. The start of drilling, which reached a depth of more than 2,000 meters (6,500 feet), was marked with a ceremony involving Putin and Sechin.

 

The importance of Arctic drilling was one reason that offshore oil exploration was included in the most recent round of U.S. sanctions. Exxon and Rosneft have a venture to explore millions of acres of the Arctic Ocean.

But what’s worse for Exxon is that now that the hard work is done, Rosneft may not need its Western partner much longer:

“Once the well is plugged, there will be a lot of work to do in interpreting the results and this is probably something that Rosneft can do,” Julian Lee, an oil strategist at Bloomberg First Word in London, said before today’s announcement. “Both parties are probably hoping that by the time they are ready to start the next well the sanctions will have been lifted.”

And here is why there is nothing Exxon would like more than to put all the western sanctions against Moscow in the rearview mirror: “The stakes are high for Exxon, whose $408 billion market valuation makes it the world’s largest energy producer. Russia represents the second-biggest exploration prospect worldwide. The Irving, Texas-based company holds drilling rights across 11.4 million acres in Russia, only eclipsed by its 15.1 million U.S. acres.”

Proving just how major this finding is, and how it may have tipped the balance of power that much more in Russia’s favor is the emergence of paid experts, desperate to talk down the relevance of the Russian discovery:

More drilling and geological analysis will be needed before a reliable estimate can be tallied for the size of the oil resources in the Universitetskaya area and the Russian Arctic as a whole, said Frances Hudson, a global thematic strategist who helps manage $305 billion at Standard Life Investments Ltd. in Edinburgh. Sanctions forbidding U.S. and European cooperation with Russian entities mean that country’s nascent Arctic exploration will be stillborn because Rosneft and its state-controlled sister companies don’t know how to drill in cold offshore conditions alone, she said.

 

“Extrapolating from a small data sample is perhaps not going to give you the best information,” Hudson said in a telephone interview. “And because of sanctions, it looks like there’s going to be less exploration rather than more.” In addition, the expense and difficulty of operating in such a remote part of the world, where hazards include icebergs and sub-zero temperatures, mean that the developing discoveries may not be economic at today’s oil prices.

Maybe. Then again perhaps the experts’ time is better suited to estimating just how much longer the US shale miracle has left before the US is once again at the mercy of offshore sellers of crude.

In any event one country is sure to have a big smile on its face: China, since today’s finding simply means that as Russia has to ultimately sell the final product to someone, that someone will almost certainly be the Middle Kingdom, which if the “Holy Gas Grail” deal is any indication, will be done at whatever terms Beijing chooses.

 

Technology revolution in nuclear power could slash costs below coal

A report by UBS said the latest reactors will be obsolete by within 10 to 20 years, yet Britain is locking in prices until 2060

A general view of the security fence at Heysham Nuclear Power Station on March 17, 2011 in Heysham, United Kingdom

Scientists have already designed better reactors based on molten salt technology that promise to slash costs by half or more Photo: Getty Images

The cost of conventional nuclear power has spiralled to levels that can no longer be justified. All the reactors being built across the world are variants of mid-20th century technology, inherently dirty and dangerous, requiring exorbitant safety controls.

This is a failure of wit and will. Scientists in Britain, France, Canada, the US, China and Japan have already designed better reactors based on molten salt technology that promise to slash costs by half or more, and may even undercut coal. They are much safer, and consume nuclear waste rather than creating more. What stands in the way is a fortress of vested interests.

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report for 2014 found that 49 of the 66 reactors under construction – mostly in Asia – are plagued with delays, and are blowing through their budgets.

Average costs have risen from $1,000 per installed kilowatt to around $8,000/kW over the past decade for new nuclear, which is why Britain could not persuade anybody to build its two reactors at Hinkley Point without fat subsidies and a “strike price” for electricity that is double current levels.

All five new reactors in the US are behind schedule. Finland’s giant EPR reactor at Olkiluoto has been delayed again. It will not be up and running until 2018, nine years late. It was supposed to cost €3.2bn. Analysts now think it will be €8.5bn. It is the same story with France’s Flamanville reactor.

We have reached the end of the road for pressurised water reactors of any kind, whatever new features they boast. The business is not viable – even leaving aside the clean-up costs – and it makes little sense to persist in building them. A report by UBS said the latest reactors will be obsolete by within 10 to 20 years, yet Britain is locking in prices until 2060.

The Alvin Weinberg Foundation in London is tracking seven proposals across the world for molten salt reactors (MSRs) rather than relying on solid uranium fuel. Unlike conventional reactors, these operate at atmospheric pressure. They do not need vast reinforced domes. There is no risk of blowing off the top.

The reactors are more efficient. They burn up 30 times as much of the nuclear fuel and can run off spent fuel. The molten salt is inert so that even if there is a leak, it cools and solidifies. The fission process stops automatically in an accident. There can be no chain-reaction, and therefore no possible disaster along the lines of Chernobyl or Fukushima. That at least is the claim.

The most revolutionary design is by British scientists at Moltex. “I started this three years ago because I was so shocked that EDF was being paid 9.25p per kWh for electricity,” said Ian Scott, the chief inventor. “We believe we can achieve parity with gas (in the UK) at 5.5p, and our real goal is to reach 3.5p and drive coal of out of business,” he said.

The Moltex project can feed off low-grade spent uranium, cleaning up toxic waste in the process. “There are 120 tonnes of purified plutonium from nuclear weapons in Britain. We could burn that up in 10 to 15 years,” he said. What remained would be greatly purified, with a shorter half-life, and could be left safely in salt mines. It does not have to be buried in steel tanks deep underground for 240,000 years. Thereafter the plant could be redesigned to use thorium, a cleaner fuel.

The reactor can be built in factories at low cost. It uses tubes that rest in molten salt, working through a convection process rather than by pumping the material around the reactor. This cuts corrosion. There is minimal risk of leaking deadly cesium or iodine for hundreds of miles around.

Transatomic Power, in Boston, says it can build a “waste-burning reactor” using molten salts in three years, after regulatory approval. The design is based on models built by US physicist Alvin Weinberg at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the 1960s, but never pursued – some say because the Pentagon wanted the plutonium residue for nuclear warheads.

It would cost $2bn (overnight cost) for a 550-megawatt plant, less than half the Hinkley Point project on a pro-rata basis. Transatomic says it can generate 75 times as much electricity per tonne of uranium as a conventional light-water reactor. The waste would be cut by 95pc, and the worst would be eliminated. It operates in a sub-critical state. If the system overheats, a plug melts at the bottom and salts drain into a cooling basin. Again, these are the claims.

The most advanced project is another Oak Ridge variant designed by Terrestrial’s David LeBlanc, who worked on the original models with Weinberg. It aims to produce power by the early 2020s from small molten salt reactors of up to 300MW, for remote regions and industrial plants. “We think we can take on fossil fuel power on a pure commercial basis. This is a revolution for global energy,” said Simon Irish, the company’s chief executive.

Toronto-based Terrestrial prefers the “dry tinder” of uranium rather than the “wet wood” of thorium, which needs a blowtorch to get started and keep going, typically plutonium 239. But it could use either fuel.

A global race is under way, with the Chinese trying everything at the Shanghai Institute of Nuclear and Applied Physics, reportedly working under “warlike” pressure. They have brought forward their target date for a fully-functioning molten salt reactor – using thorium – from 25 to 10 years.

Ian Scott, at Moltex, originally planned to sell his technology to China, having given up on the West as a lost cause. He was persuaded to stay in Britain, and is talking to ministers. “The first stage will cost around £1bn, to get through the regulatory process and build a prototype. Realistically, only the government can do this,” he said.

A state-venture of such a kind should not be ruled out. The travails of Hinkley Point show that the market cannot or will not deliver nuclear power on tolerable terms. The project has degenerated into a bung for ailing foreign companies. We have had to go along with it as an insurance, because years of drift in energy policy have left us at an acute risk of black-outs in the 2020s.

There is no reason why Britain cannot seize the prize of molten salt reactors, if necessary funded entirely by the government – now able to borrow for 10 years at 2.5pc – and run like a military undertaking. A new Brabazon Committee might not go amiss.

The nation still has world-class physicists. The death of Britain’s own nuclear industry has a silver lining: there are fewer vested interests in the way. We start from scratch. The UK’s “principles-based” philosophy of regulation means that a sudden pivot in technology of this kind could be approved very fast, in contrast to the America’s “rules-based” system. “I would never even think of doing it in the US,” said Dr Scott.

It would be hard to argue that any one of the molten salt technologies would be more expensive than arrays of wind turbines in the Atlantic. Indeed, there is a high likelihood that the best will prove massively cheaply on a kW/hour basis.

Such a project would kickstart Britain’s floundering efforts to rebuild industry. It would offer some hope of plugging a chronic and dangerously high current account deficit, already 5pc of GDP even before North Sea oil and gas fizzles out. It is fracking on steroids for import substitution.

Britain split the atom at the Cavendish Laboratory in Cambridge in 1911. It opened the world’s first commercial reactor at Calder Hall in 1956. Surely it can rise to the challenge once again. If not, let us cheer on the Chinese.

Are Cars About to Crash?

Guest Post by John Rubino

New car sales have been one of the bright spots of the US recovery. And they’re still at it:

 

September U.S. auto sales to rise 10 percent: JD Power, LMC

(Reuters) – Strong demand drove U.S. new car and truck sales 10 percent higher in September, adding momentum to the industry’s best August in more than a decade, consultants LMC Automotive and J.D. Power said on Thursday. 

Sales rose to 1.248 million new vehicles, or a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 16.5 million vehicles. This follows a 17.5 million annualized rate in August.

“The strength in automotive sales is undeniable, as August sales performance was well above expectations and there is no evidence of a payback in September, suggesting that the auto recovery still has some legs,” LMC forecaster Jeff Schuster said.

LMC raised its full-year forecast for 2014 to 16.4 million vehicles from 16.3 million vehicles

Why have cars been so strong when housing in particular and consumer spending in general have been relatively limp? Two reasons. First, subprime lending has found a home in this market:

 

In a Subprime Bubble for Used Cars, Borrowers Pay Sky-High Rates

(New York Times) – Rodney Durham stopped working in 1991, declared bankruptcy and lives on Social Security. Nonetheless, Wells Fargo lent him $15,197 to buy a used Mitsubishi sedan. 

“I am not sure how I got the loan,” Mr. Durham, age 60, said.

Mr. Durham’s application said that he made $35,000 as a technician at Lourdes Hospital in Binghamton, N.Y., according to a copy of the loan document. But he says he told the dealer he hadn’t worked at the hospital for more than three decades. Now, after months of Wells Fargo pressing him over missed payments, the bank has repossessed his car.

This is the face of the new subprime boom. Mr. Durham is one of millions of Americans with shoddy credit who are easily obtaining auto loans from used-car dealers, including some who fabricate or ignore borrowers’ abilities to repay. The loans often come with terms that take advantage of the most desperate, least financially sophisticated customers. The surge in lending and the lack of caution resemble the frenzied subprime mortgage market before its implosion set off the 2008 financial crisis.

Auto loans to people with tarnished credit have risen more than 130 percent in the five years since the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, with roughly one in four new auto loans last year going to borrowers considered subprime — people with credit scores at or below 640.

The explosive growth is being driven by some of the same dynamics that were at work in subprime mortgages. A wave of money is pouring into subprime autos, as the high rates and steady profits of the loans attract investors. Just as Wall Street stoked the boom in mortgages, some of the nation’s biggest banks and private equity firms are feeding the growth in subprime auto loans by investing in lenders and making money available for loans.

The extra demand generated by allowing (apparently) anyone with a heartbeat to buy has supported the price of used cars, making new cars more attractive by comparison. Which in turn makes leasing seem like a good deal for all concerned:

 

The Mystery Behind Strong Auto “Sales”: Soaring Car Leases

(Zero Hedge) – When it comes to signs of a US “recovery” nothing has been hyped up more than US auto companies reporting improving, in fact soaring, monthly car sales. On the surface this would be great news: with an aging car fleet, US consumers are surely eager to get in the latest and greatest product offering by your favorite bailed out car maker (at least until the recall comes). The only missing link has been consumer disposable income. So with car sales through the roof, the US consumer must be alive and well, right? Wrong, because there is one problem: it is car “sales” not sales. As the chart below from Bank of America proves, virtually all the growth in the US automotive sector in recent years has been the result of a near record surge in car leasing (where as we know subprime rules, so one’s credit rating is no longer an issue) not outright buying. 

From BofA:

“Leasing soars: Household outlays on leasing are booming at a 20% yoy pace – a clear sign that demand for vehicles is alive and kicking. With average lease payments lower than typical monthly ownership costs and with a down-payment not typically required to enter into a lease, the surge in vehicle leasing is likely a sign that financial restraints are still holding back some would-be buyers. Thus, as the economy improves, bottled-up household demand for vehicles could translate to higher sales.”

Chart 1: Households go for the low capital option: leasing soars
(yoy growth rate, inflation-adjusted)

Car leasing
It could also translate into even higher leases, which in turn bottlenecks real, actual sales.

Of course, the problem is that leasing isn’t buying at all. It is renting, usually for a period of about 3 years. Which means that at the end of said period, an avalanche of cars is returned to the dealer and thus carmaker, who then has to dump it in the market at liquidation prices, which in turn skews the ROA calculation massively. However, what it does do is give the impression that there is a surge in activity here and now… all the expense of massive inventory writedowns three years from now.

Which is precisely what will happen to all the carmakers as the leased cars come home to roost. But what CEOs know and investors prefer to forget, is that by then it will be some other management team’s problem. In the meantime, enjoy the ZIRP buying, pardon leasing, frenzy.

The above prediction is already coming true:

 

Falling used-car prices roil the auto market

(USA Today) – Used-car prices are sliding, a boon to penny-pinchers, but troubling for new-car sales. 

The auto industry sales recovery in recent years means millions of used cars, many coming off lease, are starting to flood the market. The result is a decline in used-car prices that zoomed sky-high after the recession. And the decline is leading to talk that new-car auto sales growth may be peaking.

“We’re going to see a tremendous increase in used-car supply over the next couple of years,” says Larry Dominique, an executive vice president of auto-pricing site TrueCar.

That used-car cascade could dampen new-car sales in three ways:

•Less valuable trade-ins. Car shoppers may find their trade-ins are worth less than they expected when they go to buy new vehicles. That means they’ll have to shoulder larger new-car loans or forgo the purchases.

•More expensive leases. Lease rates for new vehicles are based on predicted resale value. As resale prices fall, automakers adjust predicted depreciation schedules and have to raise lease prices.

Wholesale prices were down 0.4% in August vs. a year ago, down 1.6% from July and “prices should continue to trend down as supply outpaces demand,” writes Tom Kontos of Adesa Analytical Services, which tracks wholesale prices for used cars, in a note to the industry.

At retail, the average used car sold at a franchised auto dealership went for $10,883 last month, down 1.6% from a year ago and 2.4% from July, says CNW Research.

So falling used car prices will lead to massive write-downs by the auto companies now being forced to take back all those leased vehicles. Which means the currently rosy earnings projections for GM, Ford and the other automakers playing these games are wildly overoptimistic and will have to be scaled back in an, um, unruly fashion during the next couple of years.

This sudden unpleasant surprise will come just as the Fed has ended its last round of debt monetization and is hoping that the economy will be able to grow without help. But housing, the main linchpin of the consumer economy, is already flat-lining in much of the country (see Why Isn’t Housing a Bubble?). Add the auto industry to the negative column and there won’t be many bright spots by the end of 2015. And the Fed, no matter what it says today, will have no choice but to open the spigot once more.

QUOTES OF THE DAY

“The means of defense against foreign danger historically have become the instruments of tyranny at home.” -James Madison

“If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy.” -James Madison

“No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare. “ -James Madison

“Of all the enemies of public liberty, war is perhaps the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other.” -James Madison

“The executive has no right, in any case, to decide the question, whether there is or is not cause for declaring war.” -James Madison

“It is a universal truth that the loss of liberty at home is to be charged to the provisions against danger, real or pretended, from abroad.” -James Madison

Volcanoes, Earthquakes, Arctic Oil and Hong Kong Riots

Off the microphone of RE

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Aired on the Doomstead Diner on September 28, 2014

Discuss this article at the Podcast Table inside the Diner

Snippet:

http://cdn.pjmedia.com/lifestyle/files/2013/09/duck-and-cover-drill.jpg…I’ll start today’s Rant with a personal story, we got a 6.2 magnitude Quake in Willow a couple of days ago, just about 80 miles or so from where I am located, which was the cause of much excitement and conversation around here, but very little in the way of damage. Preppers may have lost a few Pickle Jars off the shelves and a few paintings may have dropped off some walls, but not much more than that.

Still, it was the biggest Quake here since I moved to Alaska, and you definitely felt it. The cabin did some nice shaking for around 30 seconds or so. Kidz were in skule, and they got the opportunity to do a Duck & Cover Drill under their desks. There was enough time while it was going on for me to think, “Is this gonna get bigger? How long will it go?” Then it stopped.

For me, it gave me my first physical Benchmark feeling for what 6 on the Richter Scale feels like. It’s a logarithmic scale, so a 7 is 10X as severe, 8 100x etc. Anchorage did experience one of the few 9s ever recorded, a 9.2 in 1964, that is 1000X the 6 we just got. Yowza.

10X definitely would have caused damage in the cabin, and 100X would have brought it down for sure. 1000X is overkill here…

For the rest, LISTEN TO THE RANT!!!

FBI Blasts Apple, Google Phone Encryption: It “Allows People To Be Beyond The Law”

By Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics

FBI James Comey Attacks Apple & Google

FBI director James Comey, who used to be the head prosecutor in NYC the most corrupt office in the system, had come out swinging at Apple and Google for developing forms of smartphone encryption so secure that law enforcement officials cannot easily gain access to information stored on the devices – even when they have valid search warrants. Of course, Mr Comey can only see the abuse of power of government as necessary and not the severe damage that has been done to the entire industry because of the abuse of the NSA and others.  He said he could not understand why companies would “market something expressly to allow people to place themselves beyond the law.” Perhaps he should not work for government and then he might get it.

Largely because of the abuse of government, which is by itself beyond the law that he cannot grasp, this is not a question of only criminals. This is a matter of personal privacy that a government if FREE – has not right to violate. This is not all about him. This is what those in government cannot see. There is a real world out here with a right to LIBERTY, FREEDOM FOR ALL, and the right to PRIVACY. It was government outlawing condoms that led the Supreme Court to draw the line and say no – there is a right to privacy. That right was established in Griswold v Connecticut. Just how does one enforce you are not using a condom? Do government agents storm into your bedroom to inspect before having sex? This is what Comey just does not understand – sorry you have no such right. Prove your cases the old fashion way – with detective work.

James Otis (1725-1783)

James Comey needs to go back to law school to study the simple fact that the American Revolution began because of this very type of abuse of the search and seizure of private communications without warrants. George III (b 1738; 1760-1820) became king in 1760. In February 1761 Parliament enacted the Writs of Assistance that were challenged in court in Boston, Massachusetts. These were writs that empowered, like the NSA today at their discretion, the kings agents to search anything they suspected. The defending lawyer James Otis (1725-1783) pronounced these writs were “the worst instrument of arbitrary power, the most destructive of English liberty, and the fundamental principles of law, that ever was found in an English law book.” Otis warned that the king placed discretion in the hands of every agent to act as he desired. Nothing has changed for Comey can do whatever he desires and it is always the burden of the citizen to still prove he has any rights whatsoever.

John Adams (1735–1826; 2nd President 1797–1801) was there in the audience at that hearing that day. Adams was so moved by the four hour speech of James Otis that he declared: “Then and there was the first scene of the first act of opposition to the arbitrary claims of Great Britain. Then and there, the child independence was born.”

I am sure the kings men also viewed their power as necessary as Comey does today. They could simply enter someone’s home and search all your papers. If you wrote anything derogatory against the king, off you went to prison. This is what inspired the American Revolution and the Fourth Amendment that there had to be a reason to search not just arbitrary desire to want to know and lets see what we can find as the NSA and FBI do today. This is the very essence of LIBERTY. You cannot pretend to be the leader of the free world with people like Comey in government.

The Tribute the World Pays to the Empire

Guest Post by Hugo Salinas Price

International monetary reserves set a new high mark early this month: they now amount to a bit more that $12,000,000,000,000 dollars. ($12 trillion dollars, when we calculate the value of all the reserves in dollars. The largest part of reserves is in dollars; the rest is split up into euros, pounds sterling, yen and Swiss francs.)

What does this colossal number mean?

Reserves measure the quantity of credit which the exporting countries of the world have granted to countries (and the EMU – the European Monetary Union ) that issue currencies considered as adequate to act as reserves for the central banks of the world. That this is credit is quite clear, because the $12 trillion of reserves in dollars, euros, etc., are invested in bonds, which are promises to pay on the part of the US, the EMU or others, and the holders of bonds are creditors, that is to say they have extended credit.

The monetary reserves of the Mexican central bank are included in the above-mentioned sum; which means that Mexico extends credit, mainly to the US, because the majority of reserves in Banco de Mexico are invested in dollar bonds.

In turn, extending credit means that Mexico has not been paid what it is owed. Mexicans are financing the US, Europe and others who issue reserve currencies, to the extent to which the Mexican central bank holds reserves in bonds denominated in dollars, euros and other currencies.

Since August 1971, when the countries of the World ceased to have the option of receiving gold in payment of their favorable balances of trade, or of extending credit by receiving dollars, the quantity of monetary reserves in world central banks has grown monstrously. Since there was no more payment in gold, the world had no option but to grant credit while it waited for the real payment – which has not arrived, and never will arrive.

The bald truth is that $12 trillion dollars is the imperial tribute extracted from all the countries that do not issue a reserve currency, and delivered to the countries that issue the reserve currencies, in the course of the last 43 years. It cannot be anything other than imperial tribute, because those funds represent bonds that will never be paid. Exports exchanged for bonds that will never be paid are tribute which the exporting world has delivered to the United States and Europe.

When Caesar invaded Britain in 54 B.C. his legions had to cut to pieces several thousand Britons. After the Britons surrendered, he imposed upon Britain a yearly tribute or stipendia, to be delivered in the form of assorted valuable goods. This tribute the Britons paid for the next four hundred years. Tribute is what sustains and feeds an Empire.

However, never in history has there been any collection of imperial tribute on the scale of the present financial scheme, of paying for imports with bonds that will never be paid. The devilish thing about it is that hardly anyone understands it.

Only payment in gold can cancel international debts.

As long as gold is not used to settle international debts, as used to be the case up until 1971, then the world will continue to pay tribute to the countries that issue reserve currencies; exporting countries will be handing- over part of their wealth – for nothing in exchange. Such is the essence of TRIBUTE.

Richard Cantillon and Fiat Money

Guest Post by Hugo Salinas Price

Richard Cantillon is worth remembering. An Irishman, Cantillon was born in 1680 and died in 1734.

He went into banking in Paris and witnessed the rise and fall of John Law’s huge speculative business in all its glory, which ruined France. The business included saving the finances of the French Crown with a mythical investment in Louisiana, combined with the right to issue fiat money which the Regent of France granted to Law’s company.

Cantillon was a man of extraordinary intelligence. He detected the fraud which John Law was committing under the senseless protection of the Regent, and clearly understood its terrible and inevitable consequences.

During the period of the great boom in Law’s business the public gathered in crowds before John Law’s house in the Rue Quincampoix, in the feverish hope of acquiring shares.

Cantillon’s relatives came to see him, beseeching him to get some shares for them in John Law’s Enterprise. He told them he did not recommend that investment at all, but his relatives insisted he purchase shares for them.

Cantillon purchased the shares they wanted, with their money; as a banker, he had the shares in his power and could do with them what he wished, so long as they did not ask for delivery or give him instructions to sell. He immediately sold the shares of his relatives in exchange for gold. He also liquidated his own shares, in exchange for gold.

John Law’s financial Project soon went into a spectacular bankruptcy. Cantillon repurchased his relatives’ shares for pennies.

Cantillon put all his gold into a cart filled with hay and quietly left for Holland. From Holland he went over into England.

His relatives asked for their money back, but Cantillon delivered to them the shares they had insisted on purchasing, now worth nothing. He had purchased the shares they wanted, and delivered to them said shares, as specified under contract. His relatives sued him, but Cantillon’s case prevailed.

There are few men like Cantillon. Many millions of investors will be totally ruined when the present version of John Law’s fraud – the Stock Exchanges of the whole world, based on fiat money – go to the garbage can of History, as will have to happen.

WHY DO PEOPLE LIVE IN JAPAN?

The Ontake volcano on the border of Nagano and Gifu prefectures, 200 kilometers west of Tokyo, started erupting at about 11:53 local time (02:53 GMT). More than 250 people were left stranded near the top of the volcano, police told NHK, adding that one hiker was rescued after being buried in ash near the volcano. He remains unconscious. FULL STORY: http://on.rt.com/hbi2yi