Good news for frackers.
In mid-May 2015, domestic oil production increased by 300,000 bbl/day over the past 3 months to a grand total of 9.6 million bbl/day. This total domestic production is the highest it’s been since 1970, when domestic oil production started a long, 35 year slide to just under 5 million bbl/day in 2005.
In the 10 years since, the U.S. has added over 4.6 million bbl/day to its production, and fracking has accounted for 90% of that increase. For the math challenged, that’s 4.14 million bbl/day.
So why is domestic oil production increasing when so many predicted a death knell for the fracking industry as the global PRICE of oil plummeted from $110 a barrel to its current level of $60. It’s because the fracking companies still standing can profit from $60 a barrel and not the “conventional wisdom” that they need the global price of oil to remain at or above $80-85 a barrel. Several factors are in play.
—-Half of the NEW fracking wells started in September 2014 have been idled. Lower cost to the companies in energy consumed, equipment purchased or leased, and jobs required.
—-100,000 workers laid off. Huge savings to the companies in labor costs.
—-Less productive wells idled. Production at the best wells ramped up. Yes, this will deplete these wells even faster, but the companies have already identified promising replacements through …….
—-Skyrocketing technology in horizontal drilling, which can now burrow its way through the earth up to 15,000 feet using seismic imaging and a host of other breakthroughs to find what they’re looking for: huge amounts of recoverable oil. And the technology is working very, very well.
—-Bankruptcies. Sorry about the jobs lost or idled, but that’s how destructive capitalism works. The companies left standing are snapping up oil leases and idled equipment at fire sale prices, and …..
—-Institutional investors are watching closely. And they like what they see and have poured over $20 billion into the fracking companies in the past few months. This is precisely the OPPOSITE of what occurred in 1986 when the domestic oil industry collapsed and the banks and investors stampeded to the exits.
—-Finally, a coup de grace has been delivered to the radical environmental groups who have been fighting fracking for years based on spurious allegations that fracking threatens under ground water sources. Two days ago, the EPA released a multi-year study costing nearly $50 million dollars that it does not. The EPA study did not reveal ONE SINGLE INSTANCE of fracking fluids which compromised under ground water. Not one.
Fracking for oil is safe and critical to the economy and national security. Critical. I challenge the anti-frackers who have read these comments to present any case which refutes my analysis and firm support of the fracking industry. It will survive, and it will prosper. Greatly to the nation’s and individual’s benefit.
And I invite Admin to go first.
And Adim posting a chart of “layoffs” is hardly better. For fuck sake, no accurate reports of job gains or losses exist anywhere.
The best ones are those that the Admin deduces by himself combining logic and reasoning. But otherwise, no job info can be trusted. They are all bullshit.
“Anyone reporting anything being reported by the EPA can blow me. That means you, AC. I mean, seriously, using the fucking EPA as a source?” ———– Llpoh
He’s ONLY using it as a “source” because SSS REFERENCED it …. and SSS lied about its contents.
I spent 30 years in the oil patch, my brother is working in Midland at this very moment. Midland is one of the very few places still up and running, yes there’s work there. One of my best friends who’s 70 years old and has been a leasing Agent since the early 80’s, and knows everyone in the business, he can’t buy a job right now. The oil patch is still on a downward trajectory. This assessment is from someone who knows the fucking business and the players on the ground. ME
Re: Lipoh Admin seriously needs to require posters pass an IQ test before posting.
Where would you go to post stuff if he does that?
As Stucky pointed out, SSS referenced the EPA report – presumably without reading any of it. I merely called his BS with some choice quotes from the report, which refute his claim.
Well, then SSS can blow me, too. He should know better – source of info is everything.
The EPA sucks goat dick.
And for correcting me, Stuck can blow me. I came in late.
Hell, while I am at it, and feeling grumpy, everyone can blow me. Except Steph.
She posted one of my favorite things of all time – a forty year old Nolan Ryan beating snot out of that guy. Always brings a smile to my face.
AC – i absolve you of village idiot. But you do not get a free pass on the blow me part. The EPA is the dark side of the force, and must never be referenced. Anyone using EPA as a reference must be ridiculed.
Ithink SSS loses thisfight simply because he referenced the EPA. It takes 100 attaboys to balance out one “oh shit”.
And referencing the EPA is one hell of an “oh shit”. I guess next thing he will be quoting Krugman.
“Midland is one of the very few places still up and running, yes there’s work there. One of my best friends who’s 70 years old and has been a leasing Agent since the early 80’s, and knows everyone in the business, he can’t buy a job right now.”
—-Sensetti
Could the reason be that your leasing agent friend can’t buy a job right now is because most or all of the needed equipment is already on site, and there’s a surplus sitting out there?
Llpoh
If there’s one great enemy of mining activity, it’s the EPA. I referenced their recent study that “no substantial damage” to sources of water from fracking activity because it essentially castrates the enviro whackos and their largely baseless claims to the contrary. Along comes shit-for-brains AC and points to a couple of “maybes” in the report versus several THOUSAND cases the EPA looked at and found nothing. Fuck AC and his red herring bullshit.
And yes, you were late to the party. You should have remained that way.
Sensetti provides on the ground observations that the fracking industry is going down the tubes and Inspector Clouseau is still looking for a clue. After an epic beatdown, you would think he’d curl up on the couch and watch Lawrence Welk while gumming his food.
I think I’ll post an article about Green Day, how Southwest is the worst run airline, how SSS won the war on drugs, and the dangers of nuclear energy and why we should shut down all the existing plants.
SSS – Please provide all the readers of TBP with your list of great fracking companies to invest in. I’m sure you are putting your money where your big mouth is. Right?
“SSS – Please provide all the readers of TBP with your list of great fracking companies to invest in. I’m sure you are putting your money where your big mouth is. Right?”
—-Admin
Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, Shell, Halliburton, Schumberger, Chesapeake Energy, Marathon Oil Corp, and Anadarko would be a good, safe start, Jimbo. Ever heard of them? I’ll bet you have.
I have a modest position in Marathon Oil (working in the Bakken and Eagle Ford areas) of 16,474,218 shares paying a little over a 3% dividend. Heh.
SSS
Fucking brilliant advice. The oil ETF is dominated by these wonderful companies. You are truly a sage.
The OIL ETF has a one year return of NEGATIVE 54%. Wow!!!
The OIL ETF has a five year return of NEGATIVE 60%.
Here is your proof big guy. You’re an investing genius.
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/OIL/charts?symb=OIL&countrycode=US&time=12&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F7%2F2015&freq=1&compidx=none&compind=none&comptemptext=Enter+Symbol%28s%29&comp=none&uf=7168&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&type=2&size=2&style=1013
SSS
Do you ever tire of having your ass kicked?
SSS
Only a former government employee would cackle about a position in Marathon Oil because it pays a 3% dividend yield when its price is down 36% in the last year. The dividend yield was 2% one year ago. When the price of your stock collapses, the dividend yield goes up.
The price of Marathon Oil is down 20% from where it was in 2011.
You are truly an investment genius.
sss joins the ranks of all the 3 letter jokes…. cia, fbi, epa, blm, tsa, dea, dhs, dod, shall i go on? or does your stomach hurt from laughing at these pathetic agencies?
Admin cleverly cites one-year returns and ETF bullshit. Most all oil companies are down in the past year. So what? They be good times in the oil business, and they be bad times. Boom and bust. It’s been that way forever. BFD. Buy the fucking dip.
SSS
Are your comprehension skills as bad as they seem? I provided 1 year and 5 year returns for your beloved oil companies. The 5 year return is NEGATIVE 60%. Do you want the 3 year return too?
This epic beatdown will go into the TBP Hall of Fame.
I’m actually starting to feel sorry for you.
And do me a favor and drop this article off the list. I’m tired of arguing with idiots.
Silly Gaffe – eat my shorts.
Looks like SSS is being willfully obtuse. Probably played too many rounds in the Sun on those water wasting, southern AZ golf courses. Can we get a judges ruling please so SSS can go rest in the shade?
SSS- I gotta hand it to you, your constitution is impressive, and your willingness to start a dust up is commendable. The whole spectacle was better than a matinee with popcorn.
Ottomatik
Did you happen to read what I said in my article ….. “In the 10 years since, the U.S. has added over 4.6 million bbl/day to its production, and fracking has accounted for 90% of that increase. For the math challenged, that’s 4.14 million bbl/day.”
Over 4 million bbl/day, and these loud, irrational critics of me want to see that go away. Pffft. And it’s gone.
I say no, it will survive BECAUSE IT MUST SURVIVE. It adds to our energy security (50% of our oil consumption is now domestic vs 25% 10 years ago), our overall economic security (reducing the trade imbalance), and our defense security (the DoD is a major consumer of oil).
And I gave good reasons why it will survive. But no, Admin and others are ready for the fracking collapse and long waiting lines at the gas pumps to buy gas at $5-6 a gallon, maybe higher, which further fucks the middle class they so passionately defend. Hypocrites. They’re ready for OPEC to get back in the driver’s seat on the global price of oil and THEN CUT production to send the price spiraling up again, which is much to their benefit and further exacerbates unrest in the Third World.
These and other factors which make up the forest of oil are totally unseen, unmetioned or ignored by Admin and his sheeple, who would rather concentrate on insignificant leaves and post fucking irrelevant charts about jobs lost and wells idled. Shit I had already posted in my article.
Just to pat themselves on the back and baselessly claim they “won.” Won what?
SSS
You have now entered the moron zone. I am not against fracking for oil. I simply point out the economics of fracking. You are the one not thinking rationally. Fracking technology has existed for decades. It is not new. There was no economical reason to do it until oil prices went over $100. It’s that simple.
When oil prices go back to $100, and they will, fracking will again make sense. It will not work at $47 per barrel, no matter how efficient the technology. It’s that simple.
So get off your high horse and accept that you lost this debate big time.
Admin
You’re back in the leaves again. I’ll play one last time. There are areas in the Bakken and Eagle Ford areas where the fracked oil break even point is $43-47/bbl, profitable at $50/bbl. Yet you continue with a $100/bbl babble, up from your $85/bbl babble.
You simply don’t get the big picture, and I simply don’t care anymore.
You are completely full of shit. There are absolutely NO areas ANYWHERE with a breakeven point of $47.
Provide your proof.
You are dense.
SSS writes an article attempting to provoke Admin.
Admin crushes him like a bug with fact after fact.
SSS declares he doesn’t care anymore after being crushed.
Sounds like dozens of previous SSS beatdowns by Admin.
It takes a man to admit his mistakes. SSS isn’t a man. He’s a golfer.
I’m gonna watch the NBA finals. fuck ya’ll very much.
SSS- I personally agree with your broad sentimate, we need fracking, especially if it can be done without damaging the groundwater. My friends, family and I have all benefited from fracking. That said clearly elements of global energy competion want to put it down, I hope elements of your arguement play out and the industry survives and thrives, but I fear its bad news coming down the pike. It will definitely be an interesting 3rd and 4th quarters. My thanks to both you and Admin for presenting much information on the subject, expanding my understanding.
Re: SSS couple of “maybes” in the report versus several
No. You claimed that the EPA found absolutely no cases of contamination. This claim is provable false using the EPA report you referenced.
There are three possibilities I can see:
1) You are a liar.
2) You are a moron.
3) You are a liar and a moron.
I’d put money on #3.
SSS ,tell them fuck off and die like Stucky tells me…..Fracking will be here for the rest of our lifetimesThe very next rumor of war in the middle east will send the price of oil to the moon.
“She posted one of my favorite things of all time – a forty year old Nolan Ryan beating snot out of that guy. Always brings a smile to my face. ”
I was wondering if anybody was going to notice it was Nolan Ryan beating up Robin Ventura. I actually went searching for that gif.
SSS, not that you give a shit but I thought you lost the argument before it got started when you practically declared victory with that presumptuous title. You deserved a beatdown just for that! Insulting a man in his own house……..that takes lotsa ballz and little brainz. Nice try though!
IS ,you’re idiot. SSS has made a Damn good investment. Oil prices will rise again just liike interest rates.
IndenturedServant says:
SSS, not that you give a shit but I thought you lost the argument before it got started when you practically declared victory with that presumptuous title. You deserved a beatdown just for that! Insulting a man in his own house……..that takes lotsa ballz and little brainz. Nice try though!
__________________________
Yes, it was ballsy. Unwise to do it unless you are certain you can win the debate though. LOL
I stayed out of it for two reason. First I am not well educated on the subject and second, I don’t like it when people gang up on someone, which is almost certain to be the one that doesn’t own the site.
“I thought you lost the argument before it got started when you practically declared victory with that presumptuous title. You deserved a beatdown just for that! Insulting a man in his own house.”
—-IndenturedServant @ SSS
I didn’t insult Admin, I challenged him on the subject of fracking. Big difference. I think I presented a very strong case, and obviously he does, too.
BTW, this isn’t Admin’s “own house.” He built this website on a foundation of unfettered and uncensored (no nudity!!!!) exchange of free speech. Well, I just gave it to him. And he gave it right back. Give it a try …. if you dare.
SSS, I’ve been meaning to axe you, in Vietnam did you fly the Cessna O-2 Skymaster? I know a guy in canada who owns one. It still has the hard points on the wings for missiles.
SSS, I’ll have to wait until admin breaks stoopid on a topic I can best him in. Needless to say, I’m not enthusiastic it will happen anytime soon.
I learn far more than I contribute here and I’m content with that until senility sets in, then, like you, all bets are off!
Moxie and Chutzpah to square up like that.
IS ,your just a pussy. Now go away.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-08/opec-set-continue-playing-waiting-game
Zara
Yes, I flew the O-2 in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia as a forward air controller. 280 combat hours, over 1,200 total hours in the airplane. Qualified instructor pilot and flight examiner.
Bad news for Admin. I discussed my fracking article with the following:
Judge #1. Retired Dean of the University of Arizona’s Eller College of Business Management. 2 PhD’s. 30 years experience as a business consultant for private industry. Conservative Republican.
Judge #2. Retired NYC international investment banker. Put together multi-billion dollar venture capital loans, including mining ventures in Chile and Indonesia. Liberal Democrat.
Judge #3. Retired CEO of a company that specialized in designing and building desalinization plants. Engineer by training and trade. Libertarian. Personal friend of Ron Paul.
Unanimous. Not one criticism of ANY of the points I made about fracking. 100% agreement. That’s some heavy fucking horsepower. Game, set, match. I win.
The only judge that matters is Stuck. He declared me winner by unanimous decision. Count up the thumbs SSS. You might have to use your toes, the retired Dean’s toes, the int’l banker’s toes, and the CEO’s toes for all your down votes on this thread.
Tell it to the judge.
Admin
I don’t give a flying fuck about what Stucky said. He’s totally out of his element.
Get back to me when you can assemble a world-class panel of experts on the subject, which I just did. No more copy-and-paste articles and links bullshit from doomers who echo your failed analysis. Face-to-face, you and your experts.
Describe who they are. Tell me what you told them and what they said. Then, and only then, will we talk about winning and losing.
SSS’ trioka of expert judges:
Hmmm – SSS says his judges are fracking experts: an academic, an investment banker, and an engineer.
Here is a group photo:
[img[/img]
An academic???? For fuck sake.
An investment banker? Holy fucking shite!!!
An engineer? Really????
Here is another photo of them:
[img[/img]
Damn it Admin – you beat me to it.
Llpoh
Great minds think alike.
SSS is out of his element.
Admin
You chose to keep my article from falling off the article thread, and it was dead last yesterday afternoon. Even AFTER I asked you to let it die. It was the usual TBP clusterfuck. But no-o-o-o. You bumped it back up into the pack, for whatever reason I don’t know.
That did it, so I dug in my heels. The guys I cited above are off-the-charts successful investors and multi-millionaires. All of them are super smart on the fracking business sector because THEY ALL HAVE THE EXPERIENCE OF DIRECTLY ANALYSING THAT SECTOR. Just as you claim without merit.
You then counter with a funny picture. May the TBP readers decide.
SSS
I take your blather with a grain of salt. I don’t care what your moron golfing buddies think. My facts obliterated your opinions. I moved it back up to prolong your agony.
I can’t wait for your latest investment guidance. Why don’t you cackle to me when Marathon Oil’s dividend yield hits 4% because its price drops another 30%. Your investment guidance is a hoot.
SSS, let me guess…your golfing partners.
I mean really, I have no idea about any of this stuff. Fracking? What the hell is that.
But I do know that SSS has referenced the EPA (fuck me dead, if there was EVER a more corrupt organization, I am unaware of it), an investment banker, an academic, and an engineer.
I will give him a small pass on the engineer – I have little time for them, but they do play an important role (It is just that most are incompetent blithering idiots).
But as for the rest – that is as laughable as it gets.