Guest Post by starfcker
OK, doomers, this is the big one I promised you. Fighter jet America is plunging to earth, engines aflame, all anybody can imagine is the big smoking crater when this bitch hits the ground. 18 trillion in debt, federal deficits as far as the eye can see, unfunded liabilities at as high a numbers as the scaremongers can imagine them, our very place in the world threatened by crushing debt and political ineptitude. America’s time has come and gone. Right, doomers?
Wrong. We’ve got one thing on our side. Math. All of our problems stem from one flawed premise. The flawed premise? Globalization. That we can’t make decisions in our own interest, that there is some greater good that we must sacrifice ourselves and our families and our country to. Horseshit. If you believe that, you are truly a brainwashed idiot. Each of us can change that right now, and as a country we can change that next November. Why is Donald Trump so confident that he can turn our economic trajectory on a dime? Because he can do the math. We have to start somewhere.
So let’s start at the same point as Trump. First, some baseline numbers, all from 2014. United States GDP, 17.4 trillion dollars. Total tax revenue, just over 3 trillion dollars, or about 17.5 % of GDP. Federal deficit, 483 billion dollars. National debt, 18 trillion dollars, more than 100% of GDP. Number of working age Americans not in the labor force, 94 million. Sounds pretty horrible, right? Not if we focus on the root of the problem. Globalization.
Let’s first define globalization for the purpose of this piece. Globalization on it’s face isn’t evil. It would be fine, were it to grow organically, on it’s own merit. I’m defining globalization as an organized criminal conspiracy, looters helping themselves to the intellectual property and life savings of an entire country. Last year, our trade deficit with china was 343 billion. It’s expected to rise about 20 billion this year. Let’s just round it to 350 billion for the sake of this discussion. That deficit is all Chinese doing jobs Americans used to do.
All those wages, gone, all those profits, gone, all those tax revenues gone. We run deficits with most other countries, but china is the biggest, and easily big enough to make my point. Think of our economy as a bucket of water. Every year, the Chinese leak in that bucket loses us 350 billion dollars. To refill the bucket, instead of producing new wealth, we counterfeit money.
In an earlier essay on this forum (the fruit company), I explained the concept of the multiplier effect, also called the velocity of money. In that example, I pared back the expectation to that the money might change hands 4 times a week. Today, I’m going to scale it back much, much further, to 10 times a year. Let’s just say we went cold turkey, and stopped trading with china. We would immediately stop losing a billion dollars a day.
Now let’s say we ramped up our own productive capabilities, which are the best in the history of the world, to replace the production stolen from us by china. We’re going to need a whole lot of those 94 million unemployed Americans, huh? Imagine what that would do to the welfare rolls. Imagine the taxes those re-employed workers would pay into social security. It would be rolling in dough.
Now let’s plug that x 10 multiplier into our 350 billion in savings. That’s 3.5 trillion dollars. Guess what, boys and girls, GDP just went up 20%. Now let’s tax that 3.5 trillion in new GDP at Trump’s 15% rate. You can kiss that federal deficit goodbye. Overly simple? Sure. I don’t care about china. I don’t care about the traitors that moved their production to china. Take away chinese slaves, and the big box monopolies lose their cost advantage.They can rot, I don’t care. Smooth transition? Probably smoother than you think. Upside for us? Yuuuuge.
This analysis ignores some key mathematical points:
1. The US dollar is a debt-based currency. By definition, money=debt. If debt is reduced, money is reduced.
2. The dollar is the global reserve currency. As illustrated by Triffin’s dilemma, the US by definition must run a trade deficit with external nations so that they can hold dollars. If it doesn’t run a trade deficit, then reserve currency status is lost, and the dollar is dumped.
You can’t just go full North-Korean style autarky without (a) addressing the debt-based monetary system, which is inherently unstable and requires exponential growth in order for it to function, and (b) the geopolitics of the petrodollar system, which make the reserve status of the dollar possible.
strfcker, I read this early this morning and went to bed to sleep on it. I’ve often had very similar thoughts back when I was still in denial. I had loads of ideas, small ones that would really work to right this ship. When I woke up, the reason why your plan won’t work was posted under new articles. Here it is:
The reason why everything is fucked up is because our owners WANT it this way. It is not due to incompetence or ineptitude. These people benefit and profit from what you and I see as fucked up. These people wield enormous power and influence. They will not allow any rational or reasonable “solutions” to be implemented because that would diminish their power, influence and “something from nothing wealth machine”. Get it?
Once our shadowy owners are deposed and exterminated, there will indeed be a Renaissance. Our owners will eventually push too far and our moment of truth will come. The owners know this and that is why totalitarian laws are being put in place, the police state is expanding and old school officers are being purged from the military.
Let me insert one more knife in Starfker’s ribcage…how ’bout PARTS for all that foreign-made shit? If we’re not trading, how can we fix shit when it breaks if we can’t import the parts? Even our military is screwed! Knock-offs you say? If you just limit the scope to auto manufacturing, can you even conceive of the millions of parts that would need tools/dies and as others have posted, where is the MONEY coming from to set this all up?
A better idea would be to scrap all the “trade agreements” and go back to square one….Country “A” can sell their shit to our market if we in turn can sell our shit to theirs. No tariffs on either side. Of course you can get fancy with these agreements and start imposing environmental and Human capital limitations, but then you get all TPPed.
Bottom line: Trump doesn’t have a plan, beyond vague generalities.
Also, the US exports its trash/effluent/smog/environmental disasters to poor countries. Returning all that shit will be either 1) unpleasant, or 2) expensive. Just saying.
I should add that the liberals all think they are forces for change on the side of good but they don’t realize how badly they are being played. Liberals are the reason why we don’t know the names of our owners because without liberals, the owners themselves would have to be the boots on the ground effecting change.
I sincerely hope Pelosi, Reid, Boxer and Hitlary and others (including an assortment of republicans) live long enough to see their folly.
As dick jones touched on above, what happens to that money is going to be a problem you and trump have yet to address. And it would be a yuuuge problem. Where you to get your way, every single country and private investor is going to dump dollars and USTs in a heartbeat. What happens then? That inflation we have been exporting, and getting away with due to the dollar being the reserve currency, is going to come home all at once. EVERYTHING will be a lot more expensive. Llpoh already explained how long it would take to build all your bullshit, so it would be a lot of dollars chasing very few available goods. Massive inflation. I suppose the fed could just step in and buy every single t bill when it’s sold, but that would ruin the currency as well.
Your plan is shit. But, since we are doomed anyway, fuck it. Why not. Although I would much prefer to see the sanders socialism collapse, since it would at least, hopefully, serve to teach a useful lesson on what happens when the government tries to provide everything for everyone
When I first read starfckers post I thought to myself, “Dahum, that starfcker is ignorant!”. Now, there is nothing wrong with being ignorant …. it simply means “to not know” …. and lord knows there are hundreds of things in this complex world of which I am ignorant.
People have jumped in to show starfcker why his plan is ignorant by post facts and data. Not just some people on this thread but, ALL people.
What is starfcker’s response? Basically he sticks his fingers in his ears while shouting — “I DON’T HEAR YOU!! I’M RIGHT! I’M RIGHT, NO MATTER WHAT YOU SAY, NAH NAH NAH!!” — like a petulant and somewhat retarded child.
Starfcker has made the leap from ignorance to Just Plain Stupid.
Orrrrr…… is he? Perhaps this is the Greatest Troll Post in TBP history? It’s possible. Surely, no one can be THAT stupid? Perhaps starfcker is playing you all for fools?
whatever
fuckit
How bout some titty pics??
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Depression Era titties always turned me on …
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Well looky here, said the dumb guy. This is about 5 minutes old. My work here is finished. https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/us-china-trade-reform
From starfcker’s Trump link above;
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“The most important component of our China policy is leadership and strength at the negotiating table.”
“Bring China to the bargaining table by immediately declaring it a currency manipulator.”
“Strengthen the U.S. military and deploying it appropriately in the East and South China Seas. These actions will discourage Chinese adventurism that imperils American interests in Asia and shows our strength as we begin renegotiating our trading relationship with China. A strong military presence will be a clear signal to China and other nations in Asia and around the world that America is back in the global leadership business.”
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Yeah. Trump is the answer! Glory, hallelujah!
Hardscrabble armer says:
“I would love to have one intelligent person explain to me why the USA would not survive economically if we went full scale isolationist- slam the borders closed, end all trade, remove our military from every foreign location, etc.”
While everyone is pounding on starfcker, I would like to address
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome
Once again.
Hardscrabble Farmer says:
“I would love to have one intelligent person explain to me why the USA would not survive economically if we went full scale isolationist- slam the borders closed, end all trade, remove our military from every foreign location, etc.”
While everyone is pounding on starfcker, I would like to address HSF’s issues. Let’s get to the core.
Food. There is no doubt we can feed ourselves. None.
Energy. There is no doubt we can be self-sufficient. None. Those two issues cover the basic INTERNAL requirements of a nation’s survival. Defense is the other. End of discussion. You mentioned neither.
Slam the borders closed. Agree.
Trade. Not Canada (ever), not Mexico or Australia (for the time being, mid-term). See labor costs and mineral wealth, as advanced by such luminaries as Llpoh.
Remove all military from every foreign location. Disagree. You and I need to talk. I have advanced a practical plan for the U.S. military withdrawal from foreign nations several times on this site. You will like it. Just ask.
Starfcker , don’t let these guys get you down. This can be a rough crowd sometimes and that’s one reason I sit this one out.Got to have solid numbers or data to back up your arguments. Regroup and come back another day.Anyway thanks for taking the time to write about our economic situation.
Trump is still our best hope. At least he says he will build a fence to stop illegal immigration.
bb, I’m fine. They told me to bring math, I did, they couldn’t touch it. All they could do was tell me how frightened it made them
A key part of trumps plan is to label china a currency manipulator ? Hahahaha. That’s fucking rich right there. I’m not saying they aren’t, but for the US to accuse others of that is well beyond the pot calling the kettle black. And just posting a few numbers about our trade deficit is far from proving anything with your maff. You didn’t address anything I said in my post above, and I am genuinely curious what your answer to that problem would be. Not trying to be an asshole, I’m just asking what trumps/your plan is to deal with the flood of dollars that will come back here when literally everyone in the world dumps them. You think dollars are worthless now? You ain’t seen nothin yet. And you really didn’t give a good answer to what admin posted above either.
The trouble with trump is that all of these “solutions” to the problem don’t exist beyond the sound bites you like to repeat. There is no substance at all, it’s just red meat for moronic republicans who eat that shit up. His 1 liner plans to fix all this aren’t workable solutions, just vague ideas and promises of what he would do if elected. And yes, I do realize every other candidate does the same thing, but that’s my point- trump is no different, he just doesn’t care about offending people, and really dumbs down everything to appeal to dumb people, which make up an overwhelming majority of republican voters.
Gator, there is no answering your question, unless you pose a clear question. Without making assumptions that have nothing to do with my stated opinions, lay it out and I’ll do my best.
Star, fuck all your detractors, your IQ overwhelmed the entire group. You might want to use the word fuck more in your commentary, it helps the dolts relate.
The fucking insanity laid down above will take me days to straighten out.
Let’s start with the head of the snake, Admin, how does World War 3 fit in to your analysis.
Let’s see who’s fucking irrelevant in this conversation. Sensetti will be riding his horse in a High Rocky Mountain meadow, he’ll stop lean over the saddle horn and think, Damn, Ole Stucky and Admin thought Putin was so fucking cool and he nuked their ass. He’ll think, Damn, AWD is lining their shit out now.
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/terrorism-war/the-first-cities-to-be-nuked/
Side note, Fuck IS. He thinks when I refer to myself in the third person it proves I’m crazy, no dumbass, it proves I’m drinking!
Stucky nice post of the lady in the white dress. But, my girlfriend puts that young lady to shame! I’ve posted her pic, she’s not as Hot as Avolon but she’s close! I’ve lost my ability to post pic’s I need to recoup the skills.
I asked this question above, but I will ask it again. Let’s say your an works. What happens when this causes every single country and private investor in the world to immediately dump dollars and USTs? All that money will come rushing home, and the value of the dollar will plummet. What is the trump/starfckr plan to deal with that?
That is inevitable. We are able to export our dollars(inflation) because there is demand for them due to it being the worlds reserve currency and the currency which must be used to purchase oil. This would no longer work if we followed your plan you have outlined and trump has mentioned. How will you deal with that?
Is that clear enough for you to answer it?
Stucky says: whatever fuckit How bout some titty pics??
Dang Stuck, you do know how to push the envelope, you showed some crotch there, bushman.
Granny titties don’t do anything for me. What’s next, nekkid pictures of Bathsheba?
I’m sorry, I skipped quite a bit of the debate. I have to comment on the original postings. Smith gave discussion in his famous work where the English ended a war due to a lack of coffer weight. The concern was that so many soldiers would become unemployed instantaneously. The unemployment would cripple the economy, or so said the ‘brightest’ minds at the time. What happened was that full employment was rapidly achieved through a LACK of government planning. Similar experiences have occurred on numerous occasions in the US during different times of mass immigration, to various levels of success. Read Henry George for his descriptions of California during the early days. They are quite enlightening. So instant unemployment with the opening of industry doesn’t bother me even a bit.
Where am I going? I do not support Trump or isolationism. However, outright rejection of his ideas based upon the loss of certain revenue streams and the lack of currently established industries does not ensure long- or medium-term economic loss. When given the opportunity to properly invest capital to meet demand, the free market is unparalleled in its ability to provide a supply. The construction of large industrial facilities such as power plants and mineral refineries (just to list 2 industries in which I am very familiar) would directly employee many millions (I’d like to take a guess but I have no basis at this moment. It would be upwards of 5 million almost immediately, I would take an educated guess) of skilled trades, engineers, and managers along with many more support positions through vendors, material, and convenience (a generic term I’m using for services, etc.) for upwards of a generation. As they are built, someone has to operate them!
Again, the purpose, cutting off the world doesn’t end the U.S. It may actually turn a host of the unemployed into actual revenue earning citizens. Me, I don’t dislike immigrants or free trade. What I want for them are jobs. How do we get there? I don’t have the answers but I can tell you this, I hate buying shit from Walmart (China) that breaks immediately after opening the package. They are on my boycott list. I save my money and buy more quality products now. When I can, I buy American, even if I have to pay more. Cutting off the world may not be the right answer but it’s certainly not the nail in the coffin that is discussed above. It might actually be similar to the end of WWII where the only production powerhouse left on Earth was the U.S., since every other industrialized nation had been bombed out of existence. Except this time, we have to rebuild our production capability, which seems like even more jobs.
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It’s great art, I guess. I like my chunky babes with bigger boobs, but beauty is in the eye of the beholden, and all that.
Gator, what answer are you talking about? I have no plan. I am just stating numerical facts. Here is why we are broke. I never said stop trading. I never said do anything instantly. I am saying do what is in our benefit, at all times. Fuck china. Fuck the monopolistic, parasitic multi-nationals. Fuck the banks. Sink or swim. They make it, as solvent entities, or they don’t
Gator answer me this. Why is the dollar the World Reserve Currency? How is this status maintained and why?
If you cannot accurately answer such an elementary question shut the fuck up and go away. Jump your stupid ass up if you will and I will destroy you in a debate, it’ will be like taking lunch money from a special Ed student.
Admin himself will not debate me on the petrodollar and what its demise will bring. This whole fucking show is not about accounting principles and legitimate numbers. Where in Admins training did he ever learn about fictional additions to the income side of the balance sheet? Poor guys always trying to make the numbers work. Admins mentor Ron Paul is full of shit and I would destroy his ass in a public debate. This whole fucking system is rigged and has been for decades. Ron Paul wants to act like deficits matter, dumbass as no clue! Deficits only matter if accounting principles apply. Ron Paul would have to explain to me how this system has worked outside the traditional accounting standards for years. Tricky Dick Cheney had it right when he said and I quote ” deficits don’t matter”
Until the U.S. Military gets its ass kicked the Dollar is backed by force of will and deficits absolutely don’t matter. What backs our currency is the contracts with OPEC Countries to “only sell oil in dollars” and the U.S. Military enforcing those contracts.
So every time I read a thread here on the Middle East and people are not talking about the petrodollar I instantly know they have no, zero, fucking idea what they are talking about. Enter Stucky stage left.
Tim, that looks like the old lady from Titanic.
You know why you should be nice to old ladies? One of them might be an old GF.
Sensetti, that’s easy. It is the world reserve currency because it is maintained through force. It is also because of the SWIFT system of international banking. The whole world uses it, and the US has the ability to shut whole countries out of it which will greatly reduce their ability to conduct trade. The dollar gets it’s power because of country A wants to buy oil from country B, they cannot use their own currency, they must first buy dollars to use to purchase oil. This creates a huge international demand for dollars, which allows us to export our inflation to the rest of the world. To see what happens when we stop exporting a lot of dollars, see the carnage that’s happened to EM currencies recently. They borrowed in dollars, which has strengthens against their own currencies, leaving them in a hole. But dollars must be used to buy oil. Any country attempting to trade oil for anything else will be destroyed. See – Russia, Libya, Iraq for a couple examples. As long as we are able to force other countries to use it with our military, it will continue.
And as far as your deficits don’t matter, that’s a different subject. Our currency is debt based, which means it is loaned into existence. It also means debt must continue to go up, forever, or the whole Ponzi collapses. Doesn’t really matter if it’s private debt or public debt, just perpetual credit creation that is impossible to pay off.
And no, I highly doubt you would “own” Ron Paul in a debate. He says mostly the same things, try reading his book. Nothing you have said is original. In fact, it’s mostly RP material. You sound like a complete jerkoff. You probably suck at debating anyway. With all your bluster, you sound like one of those guys who talks constantly about how tough they are, and how they can kick this guy or that guys ass. Those guys almost always end up being total pussies. That’s how I picture you when It comes to debating.
Sensetti, shouldn’t you be sexing up your horses and prepping for the pockylypse?
Stucky, titty pics are good but that poor young woman needs something to eat!
Maff won’t save US..
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Looks like Sensetti was hitting the sauce again.
Yeah admin he’s partial to the fire water! I hope he’s not on his way to dispense some Obamycare to today’s lucky recipients with a hangover. Maybe it’s his day off.
IS I am actually getting a day off because it’s going to rain. I’m attempting to get Admin to address the petrodollar, not gonna happen.
We make nothing in this Country, our entire existence is based on our ability to print money and create debt, which hinges on the petrodollar. No one can have a meaningful discussion on the Middle East without mentioning what backs our currency.
Admin is a very gifted writer and I have a difficult time trying to figure out why he won’t write about why we intervene in the Middle East and the petrodollar,
IS I might add, fuck you, I’m Irish, God blessed us we don’t get hangovers.
Sensetti
WTF are you talking about? I know we are in the Middle East for the oil. I’ve written about it a hundred times. I guess all that drinking has affected your memory. So what? I’ve also written that there will be a world war during this Fourth Turning. What the fuck don’t you understand?
Why don’t you write about the petro-dollar since you’re so fucking interested in it?
Gator says: Sensetti nothing you have said is original.
Let’s see if this is original commentary,
Gator is a cum gargling, take black dick in the ass Bitch.
Actually, I liked everything you said until your last paragraph.
Sensetti, that sounds exactly like what someone who sucks at debating would say. Very clever too. And I don’t know why you keep thinking you are the only one who mentions the petrodollar or our debt based monetary system. I literally found this site because of admin’s articles involving just that being posted on zerohedge. I have mentioned it several times as well in the comment section. Most people on this site are well aware of it, Id wager.
If you are so aware of this, then why are you cheering on starfuckr? Do you not realize the problem it would create? If you want the starfuckr/trump plan to be implemented because it will cause the system to collapse, then fine. Its going to collapse eventually, might as well get it over with while Im young. But if you think thy can coexist, you are delusional. A trump style plan cannot co-exist with the petrodollar.
Admin, there are dire consequences that go along with the failure of the petrodollar. When Rome fell it never recovered. I personally would like to maintain this delusion we call home for a few more years. We need to kick more ass in the Middle East not less. You my friend are the one who thinks we should not be there, but you won’t tell me how you think we survive a post dollar World Reserve currency. Our society will implode once we stop paying the freeshit army. We’ve got a hundred million people that can’t take care of themselves and if Social Security and Medicare failure just double that number. No, we can’t face reality, we better send troops in mass to the Middle East and kick ass, and we will.
Sensetti
Our society will implode no matter what. You want to stay in the Middle East where World War III is most likely to be triggered. Your fucking master plan to hide in the hills will be all for naught if it goes nuclear. But, you keep rooting for the neo-con warmongers to blow up the world. Fuck your petro-dollar and your death wish. I think you actually root for an apocalypse to prove your theory right. That’s warped. I think you you should hit the bottle.
Gator, how old are you? I’m really starting to like you. I’m a friend of Star and I’m backing Trump all the way.
Admin Google the 30 most likely cites to get hit by a Russian nuke. Contrast and compare my location and yours. Then come back and speak to me about forward thinking!
You are correct I have an elaborate plan in place that I’ve spent many years and thousands of dollars to put in place. Hell I’ve got a copper still in my bug out supplies, Talk about drinking
It’s not I welcome the apocalypse, I just think I can survive it, and we both know it’s coming.
I’m advocating going side ways for a few more years. Admin I don’t want to see your boys drafted into a World War as my Grandsons. Let’s just keep what we have in place, what says you?
“I have an elaborate plan in place that I’ve spent many years and thousands of dollars to put in place. ” ———Sensetti
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Fool!
And Jesus told them this parable: “The ground of a certain rich man yielded an abundant harvest. He thought to himself, ‘What shall I do? I have no place to store my crops.’ “Then he said, ‘This is what I’ll do. I will tear down my barns and build bigger ones, and there I will store my surplus grain. And I’ll say to myself, “You have plenty of grain laid up for many years. Take life easy; eat, drink and be merry.”’ “But God said to him, ‘You fool! This very night your life will be demanded from you. Then who will get what you have prepared for yourself?’
Sensetti, ask Hardscrabble Farmer about burning barns.
Good to see you back, Stuck….damn cocksuckers don’t know jack about shit.
Stucky the brilliance behind my plan is being mobile with solid destinations in place. It will take me six hours lead time to put my show on the road. I think my location is fine but if it looks compromised I’ll load my horses and van trailer and head for the Kiamichi mountains in Oklahoma or a high mountain ranch in Colorado. I have friends in both places that would love to see me and my ammo show up, plus I’m real good at training horses!
You don’t have to be a victim, somebody’s gonna survive. AWD is a lesson though. He prepared and did not live to see his efforts payoff. I may go the same way, who knows, but I refuse to be a victim, prepare for the worst, hope for the best
There is no hope for Starfcker, he is the eternal optimist who sincerely believes the official story and in his way believes he sees a solution. The good news is that most people that deluded become flaming liberals where Star has at least taken a better turn in the road.
We could give up on him or we can continue to hope that his light bulb will one day turn on in the empty void above his neck. Starfucker, I like you boy but this is beyond dumb. Everyone has spoken and it is plain that you are the only one who buys in to this maff illusion. Please get a clue.
Actual photo of starfcker
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Sensetti’s prepper gal packing for the doomstead:
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Rise- Looks like she is holding two pickets to Titsburgh….I mean two tickets to Pittsburgh. Only Sensetti would go to Pittsburgh with a half-nekkit womanz.
Bea Lever says: Rise- Looks like she is holding two pickets to Titsburgh….I mean two tickets to Pittsburgh. Only Sensetti would go to Pittsburgh with a half-nekkit womanz.
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Funny!
I’d take that woman anywhere she wants to go, including Pittsburgh.
Nice picture, stucky. Not sure if it’s me, but it’s clearly a floridian, and not from the jersey/pennsylvania area. The tells are obvious, large cranium, complete set of teeth, and not licking it’s balls