She won all six of the coin tosses. The odds against winning six out of six coin flips are 64-to-1 against, or 1.56 percent.
The Des Moines Register explains that one of the coin tosses came from precinct 2-4 in Ames, where “60 caucus participants apparently disappeared from the proceedings.”
The Register quotes caucus participant and Iowa State University professor David Schewingruber, a Sanders supporter, on how it went down:
A total of 484 eligible caucus attendees were initially recorded at the site. But when each candidate’s preference group was counted, Clinton had 240 supporters, Sanders had 179 and Martin O’Malley had five (causing him to be declared non-viable).
Those figures add up to just 424 participants, leaving 60 apparently missing. When those numbers were plugged into the formula that determines delegate allocations, Clinton received four delegates and Sanders received three — leaving one delegate unassigned.
Unable to account for that numerical discrepancy and the orphan delegate it produced, the Sanders campaign challenged the results and precinct leaders called a Democratic Party hot line set up to advise on such situations.
Party officials recommended they settle the dispute with a coin toss.
A Clinton supporter correctly called “heads” on a quarter flipped in the air, and Clinton received a fifth delegate.
The same thing happened at precincts in Des Moines, Newton, West Branch, and Davenport.
The coin tosses gave Clinton a technical delegate victory in Iowa, although it’s hard to call it a win.
With the clock frozen at 99 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton edges Sanders in the vote total by a whisper-thin margin, 49.9 percent to 49.6 percent, but if the coin tosses had gone the other way, Sanders would apparently have the most delegates.
CBS News reports that one precinct still hasn’t reported, with 2.28 state delegate equivalents, leading to this hilariously aggressive spin from the Clinton campaign:
Clinton’s camp noted that, even if Sanders got all of the 2.28, “Statistically, there is no outstanding information that could change the results and no way that Senator Sanders can overcome Secretary Clinton’s advantage.”
And so, it said flatly, she “has won the Iowa Caucus.”
Everyone who isn’t getting paid by Hillary Clinton knows the truth: Iowa was a devastating blow to her, and Sanders is correct to trumpet “a come-from-behind campaign for the history books.”
The one thing he couldn’t possible have foreseen is that Clinton would defy 64-to-1 odds and win six coin tosses in a row.
Of course, Clinton fans know this isn’t the first time she’s beaten long odds. In the Miracle of the Cattle Futures, for example, Clinton turned a $1,000 investment into $100,000 in no time flat, despite having no experience in the highly volatile commodities market.
She also somehow forgot to report that windfall to the IRS, and the Clinton White House dragged its feet on releasing the details of the trade, which is so unlike the famously transparent power couple.
The Stalin principle about elections: The Clinton machine controls the party, officials and counting.
Sure is a head-scratcher that Bernie and Trump are pulling 10x the crowds of their opponents, yet came in 2nd place in their contests, huh? I know when I was involved with local politics back in college, there was all kinds of fuckery that took place. My crew of monkeys were paid in beer, pizza and other monetary contributions to cast votes the way the leaders wanted the vote to go… we didn’t give a shit as it was all a party. You think that kind of crap doesn’t go down everywhere in the US in these caucus states? Sheeeeeeeit.
How can a coin toss be subject to cheating?
Hillary had phenomenal luck at trading cattle futures as well.
Maybe she is just naturally lucky, some people are.
“Heads” – the establishment wins. “Tails” – the rest of us are fucked.
It is becoming more and more obvious that, In the casino of modern politics, the odds favor the house:
http://www.infowars.com/the-establishment-push-for-rubio/
Pretty damned easy when the Hillcunt team used this coin …..
[img
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Actually, the odds of this result are 50/50. Each flip is a separate act. Under large number theory it is entirely possible for this to occur – or even longer streaks of continuous heads or tails outcomes. Ultimately the odds work, in the long run. It is, however, improbable for this to happen often. But not as “impossible” as presented.
I guess most folks didn’t take Statistical Analysis 201 and 202 in undergraduate work. Or maybe the Clinton staff used their “lucky” coin? You decide.
As a resident of Las Vegas and UNLV grad, our stat courses often used gambling for practical applications. Still hoping to roll “seven” first time out in craps 15-20 times in a row, however. Hence, I’m not retired.
I knew the jig was up when I saw Bill grinning behind her back.
by Karl Denninger
Winners And Losers In Iowa
Huckabee had the good sense to call it a day and go home.
The others who saw their dreams blown to bits, not so much, with the exception of Malloy on the Democrat side (who also displayed a bit of competence.)
Cruz, Trump and Rubio go forward with a good argument for continuing. Carson might be able to make such an argument, but he runs out of gas in New Hampshire unless he manages to at least place.
None of others have a prayer in Hell on the Republican side. There is no future for Rand Paul, Jeb, Fiorina, Kasich, Christie, Santorum or Gilmore. Rand and Jeb got one delegate each, while none of the others got any, all polling under 2%.
That’s Libertarian Candidate territory, and is a complete waste of time. Any money donated to these people beyond this point is literally set on fire with the ashes flushed down the toilet.
There are many who wish to attach big significance to Cruz’s win, but I don’t. Iowa is rarely able to predict anything; it’s just how it is. Their claim to fame is being first, not accurate. Nonetheless you have to be able to post up some credible support there to have a shot, and there are really only three who can make that claim, with one “maybe.”
Good riddance to Rand and Jeb. The rest never had anything to offer in the first place, and thus are and were utterly immaterial.
Carson’s biggest problem is that he comes off soft in places you can’t as a President (e.g. internationally) and refuses to take on the medical monopoly issue, where he could win big among Republicans. Oh sure, he’d***** off the entire pharma and hospital industry, along with the insurance companies, but remember that only people vote, not corporations. He’s also nearly immune to attacks from them because he’s a surgeon and, apparently, a good one, so going after him on this point with attacks are likely to run off like water on a duck’s back.
But…. he’s had months and hasn’t done it — and that means that after New Hampshire he’s probably done.
We’ll see how big the narcissistic trait is among everyone else, and how long they continue to lie to themselves (and their supporters) about having a crack at the nomination.
Takeaway: This morning there are four Republican contenders — period.
As for the Democrats Sanders is fun to watch. He’d be an utter disaster for the nation as President, as his stock in trade is innumeracy among the population. Then again, Hillary’s calling card is made out of lies, deceit, complicity in the abuse of women by her husband and arguably high treason, but that hasn’t stopped her.
And that leads to my closing question: Is there a nation here worth saving?
The DNC will literally bend over backwards to provide Hitlery with an edge. Even so, look at what Bernie has accomplished. He’s no longer a longshot candidate.
“Actually, the odds of this result are 50/50.” —————— TacticalZen
Actually, only the results of each individual flip are 50/50.
If there are six flips you MUST multiply .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 …… which equals 1.56%. You can even try it out on the ‘calculator’ program that comes with Windows!!
Your UNLV statistics grad work …. was that Common Core statistics? lol
Coast – I do recognize that Bernie does have some good qualities for Pres., but his give free-shit to everybody ignores how all that is paid for (most people are against more taxes and gov’t debt).
The odds are 1 in 64 .
Well I have at one time or another rolled 4 ones killing my warmaster or 4 ones allowing an enemy to escape.
And my game of Warhammer 40k is much more important than this shit.
I remember an epic roll of 102 dice at once, 5’s and 6’s to hit I rolled 91 hits and 11 misses. Then it was 4 or better to wound.
7 wounds………..
Probability sucks ass.
Ah, UNLV. I miss the Verrezzano’s pizza across the street (Maryland pkwy) and Robertos Tacos (everywhere in LV). Don’t miss the 110 degree Summers though.
I do not believe the msm anymore nor Fox They all hate Trump,and have to much to lose if he wins.Already showing voter problems.Same as Obama all rigged
The Us has to be the most corrupt nation in the world under O.They have gotten away with murder and no one stops them.They all are exempt from law
Weird.
She didn’t win this one-
Des Moines Register says “Coin Toss Count Unknown”, then says it was Bernie six out of seven.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/02/02/iowa-caucus-coin-flip-count-unknown/79708740/
“Lau said seven coin flips were reported statewide, and Bernie Sanders won six of them.”
“The truth? What is the truth?”
-Sophie’s Choice-
Told you yesterday it was rigged towards Clinton. Let’s see what happens down the road…
Anything close she wins. Anything close Rubio wins.
@Kokoda: Appreciate your comment re: Bernie. He’ll pay for college by instituting a tax on Wall St. transactions. This will also have the effect of eliminating all the empty “buy” orders the weasels use to game the market. His single-payer plan will increase taxes a bit but not nearly what people with higher incomes pay out of pocket. Those who are currently on Medicaid would just convert to single-payer and the costs would be much less because he will also end the “non-negotiation” on drug prices. Plus eliminating the profit motive of the private insurance companies will same a ton of money.
The other way he’ll save taxes is by shutting down the mil/ind complex’s excursions into a war a week. Do we really need to spend $1Trillion on a new ICBM system? And what about that F35 that won’t fly straight, or those new ships that develop hull damage when you sail them in the ocean?
What people need to realize about Bernie is, unless you’re in the top 1% or one of their chief minions, his agenda will result in a higher quality of life and more money in your pocket. He’s the candidate representing the best interests of the middle class. Not so much for the aforementioned 1%, but remember during Ike’s admin the highest tax rate was 91%.
Dream on, Westy…even if Bernie miraculously won the nomination and election, Republipukes would block every one of those measures.
Funny, that coin toss thing sounds a lot like what happened to Ron Paul back in 2012. And Westcoaster, anyone supporting bernie is trying to elect a mom, dad, and santa all rolled up into one. There is no way to pay for all that stuff how he describes it. Every single government estimate to pay for the rest of our entitlements has fallen several fold short of their actual end costs, his proposals would, if implemented, wind up the same. The programs will cost several times more than anticipated, and the taxes that are supposed to pay for them will fall well short of estimates.
Another point – not that the constitution really matters anymore, it really is just an old, useless piece of paper at this point. BUT – no where in the powers given to the federal government in the constitution is there any mention of healthcare or education. The federal government has no business in either. It fucks up literally everything it touches, and yet bernie supporters keep insisting that despite decades worth of evidence showing that its ever growing involvement will just make things worse, you all still insist on the fedgov taking it over.
The Bern says he will raise taxes for everyone. He is a socialist to the point of communism. He want the state to control what you do. From health care the where you work and what is a fair wage. The destruction of innovation and free will
The dealers will always stack the deck because they can.
Wherever electronic voting takes place, the the process will be corrupted. It’s the way of the technocrats and the modern day money changers. The sheeple are too busy watching football, American Idol, & Fox’s Grease live to understand. I hear the ratings for all three are through the roof. Excellent.
http://www.infowars.com/trump-supporters-think-microsoft-helped-rubio-cheat-in-iowa/
gentlemen,
consider that the entire election process/candidates
are (another) expensive “fundraiser” and an entertainment/
appeasement for the sheep. And for the smarties too.
We get caught up in it.
For HSF…you will like this, and the beautiful dog.
I avoided watching this, probably because I knew I’d wind up thinking he was a good guy. I was right. He makes a great point, not much you can argue with except that the Government is going to do whatever it wants because there is no one to challenge their authority regardless of the Constitution and the law. We live in a full blown tyranny, that’s just how it is. They kill people just like a gang, no different, except they don’t fear the cops because they are the cops.
I fell bad for his family, for his community, really for America because this guy is the salt of the Earth and the kind of person that built this nation.
I’ll give him this, he lived and died by his beliefs and they sound well founded to me. He has more moral righteousness than the entire American government combined and all the guns and dollars in the world can’t take that away.
“Don’t matter how it ends, it matters how you stand.”
This is the heads coin used:
[img]https://encrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRqxQvnNIVqusMedq_s69IOeemVS-ZQgHK6HjfMCFyq1XYqVrda[/img]
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http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/267551-va-official-accused-of-stealing-130k-to-be-reinstated
Tacticalzen, you bring up a legitimate point though you are clumsy in presenting it. Stucky is right in the end. For 6 coin tosses to yield the same result, you’ll be betting on a loss in almost certainty. Even so, each individual toss has the same odds. You are referring to the so-called “gambler’s fallacy” in which the poor man, gambling at the casino, thinks to himself after having losing his shirt for the 30th turn in a row at the slots, thinks to himself, “hey my luck has got to turn around since I have lost all night. Next time a winner.” But of course the odds on the next throw or lever are exactly the same as before, against him.
You also refer to what is properly called “the law of large numbers”, but don’t explain it. In a nutshell, it is this. The larger the sample the more likely it is that you will get the actual mathematical odds correct. So then, flip 10 coins you can conceivably get 7 of one and 3 of the other. Flip it 100 times you will never get 70 of one and 30 of the other. (You have a rigged game at that point if that’s the case.) Flip it 1000 times, then 10000 times, then 100000 times, and so on, and you will asymptotically approach the mathematical odds, which is 50%.
The principle also holds, though not rigorously so, in backgammon. Many think the game is just a game of luck. Not so. Not even close. Yes, the game is unique in that it is possible for a child with little experience can beat the world champ in any given game. But if they play 1000 games, the better player emerges every single time. Though it must be stipulated that the betting cube must be used, and there are real stakes hanging in the balance. This why the the world championship is a series of games, though it is possible for the whole thing to be over in one. If you have not played backgammon for real money, with the betting cube, say, at 10 bucks a point, you are missing out on one of life’s great adrenaline rushes.