The last nail in the MSM narrative of economic recovery. Jobs are always a lagging indicator. The retailer results this week have been disastrous. Kohl’s and Macy’s shit the bed. Consumers aren’t spending money they don’t have anymore. All those Obama jobs barely pay the bills. Obamacare is bankrupting small businesses and using all those gas savings windfalls. Now companies are handing out pink slips at a rapid pace, while gas prices have surged by 30% in the last three months. Best time to buy stocks. Right?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/12/2016 08:36 -0400
The last great hope indicator of the bullish narrative appears to have broken as today’s initial jobless claims soars 20k to 294k – the highest since Feb 2015. Seemingly confirming the dismal payroll print, one can only wonder how long before this catches ‘down’ to the weakness in PMI/ISM survey employment data and the hard macro data. The last 3 weeks have seen initial claims soar by the most since 2005…
This is the first time claims have risen YoY since Nov 2012…
Catch ‘up’ time…
It begins!
Indeed, it begins.
When everyone is jobless there will then be full employment, cause they don’t count ‘discouraged’ workers as unemployed.
Alternatively we could give all those unemployed, student loans, so they can finish their degree, or get an MS – because students are not counted as unemployed.
Bingo, Dutchy, but don’t give them any ideas.
The “Initial Jobless Claims” chart gives the impression that unemployment went down since the 2009 peak. It is not the case though. It is only showing new unemployment claims. Those that lost their jobs in 08 – 09 are mostly still unemployed. The employment/population ratio is the chart that gives the true health of our economy. I am sure it has some built in machinations too but it is closer to reality than the BLS table A15, Alternative measures of Labor Utilization. U3 measures 5% unemployment currently. UGH!
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
How much longer will the credibility of our federal government and central bank remain positive?
We’ve had multiple rounds of gimmicks like twist, stimulus, cash for clunkers, etc and nothing has changed.
We’ve had three rounds of QE and nothing has changed.
We’ve had ZIRP for eight years, and nothing has changed.
We’ve had NIRP (negative rates) in other central banks and nothing has changed.
We’ve had talk of NIRP in this country, as if that will change anything, but that will not stop them from implementing it anyway.
When the market implodes and we go NIRP, to combat hording cash, expect cash to be banned and then electronic cards.
That way they can just take what they demand, and nothing will fucking change.
Our quarter in retail is showing
The global economys slowing
Our central bank bubble
Is clearly in trouble
Its only our fear that is growing
Limerick King
Stick to articles Jim.
It is Obama that is peddling fiction. Dilma Rousseff has now been suspended and most surely will be impeached in Brazil.
“The Senate deliberated for 20 hours before voting 55-22 early on Thursday to put Rousseff on trial over charges that she disguised the size of the budget deficit to make the economy look healthier in the runup to her 2014 re-election.”
So, she will go on trial for disguising the budget deficit to make the economy healthier. What a novel fucking idea to oust her for that crime. Why can’t we do the same to Obama? He disguises everything to make the economy look healthier than it is, and anyone that points this out is accused of peddling fiction. Brazil may be fucked up, but at least they seem to not be totally morally bankrupt.
I normally avoid dark speculation but one good thing about the US going full Venezuela is that you won’t have to listen to melanin deficient assholes’ inane chatter about their relative IQs..
I can hear it now: ‘If your so fucking smart, why are you reheating last night’s turd?’