The Housing Market Will Bounce Back

HAHAHAHA, it must be true because it’s coming from “Business Insider”, lol.

Be sure not to be drinking anything you don’t want coming out your nose when you read this.

This is what will create the next housing boom

Akin Oyedele36 mins ago
 
© David Sucsy/E+/Getty Images  The next housing boom will be triggered by millennials.Like older demographic groups, the lumped-together cohort of 20- and 30-somethings are interested in getting married, starting families, buying homes and living the aspirational suburban life.The problem is that they are delaying all this, in part to build careers in large metros.In a note Tuesday, William Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management, discussed why this lag among millennials could be responsible for the next housing boom.

He wrote that their move into “exile” — away from home and college towns — is only delaying what will eventually be a boost for new home construction.

Here’s Smead (our emphasis):

We would argue that many Millennials have removed themselves from their hometown and their college town via their employment and the lateness of marriage. This contributes directly to Ivy’s “elongation.” We find it easy to estimate that the current new homebuilding pace of 629,000 units in 2016 will grow to a 1.5 million unit run-rate within five years. This would truly be a boom and could carry the U.S. economy along with it.

Numerous studies show that folks under thirty years of age change jobs much more often than prior generations. The average age to marry has risen above 28 years old, with men at 29 in the mix. BCA Research has taught us that American women who have three children are likely to bear more of them in their thirties than in their twenties. The Census Bureau just reported a drop-off in teenage pregnancies and a lower rate of birth for women in their twenties. This was offset by sizable growth in pregnancies between 30 and 45 (Janet Jackson not withstanding).

Smead referenced a recent Barron’s interview with veteran housing-market analyst Ivy Zelman, in which she noted the dire shortage of affordable housing on the market. She said this housing cycle is likely to be longer and flatter than past cycles.

And Smead argues that millennials are the reason for this elongation — as  they choose to settle and buy houses, that demand should propel the market if homebuilders are able to keep up.

“We believe that the current fears of a slower economy are the last gasp of apost-financial meltdown era and are about to be replaced by exiles in the US building homes and having families,” Smead wrote.

“This will produce much higher economic growth, spawn higher interest rates and benefit companies with a direct and/or indirect connection to an America, which will be much different in ten years.”

original HERE.

 


 

Author: harry p.

A Gen X mechanical engineer who values family, strength, discipline, self-reliance and freedom who is doing what he can to protect his family, belittle morons and be ready for the tough times ahead. Discipline=Freedom

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10 Comments
kokoda
kokoda
June 8, 2016 12:24 pm

Info on R-Hand side margin is covering 25% of article

IndenturedServant
IndenturedServant
June 8, 2016 4:36 pm

Click the link to read the missing 25% or just make it up in your mind. Whatever you make up will likely be more accurate than the original.

nkit
nkit
June 8, 2016 4:44 pm

I clicked the link earlier today and could not find the story, so I went with the making up thing, I_S. Now, I’m arguing with myself about the accuracy of the story. Fuck it.

IndenturedServant
IndenturedServant
June 8, 2016 5:09 pm

lol

IndenturedServant
IndenturedServant
June 8, 2016 5:17 pm

Bwahahahaha! The opening two lines of the linked story read:

“The next housing boom will be triggered by millennials.

Like older demographic groups, the lumped-together cohort of 20- and 30-somethings are interested in getting married, starting families, buying homes and living the aspirational suburban life.”

WTF? Are they going to offer no money down/no payments/no interest for 30 years? Minnies are TAPPED! They’ll be lucky if they can scrape up the property taxes to continue living in mommy and daddy’s basement after they die of old age.

Nearly every story I’ve read about minnies, including those written by minnies indicates they don’t want to get married, don’t want kids and cannot afford a home and aspire to nothing more than sitting on couches playing video games.

BamBam
BamBam
June 8, 2016 6:13 pm

There counting on us Millennials to save them? Seriously? Good luck with that one! A good number of us are:

1. Broke.
2. Barely making any money if we do have a job.
3. No Savings, if not outright ready for debtor’s prison with student loans.
4. Unable to assemble IKEA furniture, much less care for a house.
5. Incapable of budgeting.
6. Have no hard skills, such as welding, carpentry, farmwork, or even tailoring, cooking, and cleaning. The kind of skills necessary for work in the looming depression.
7. Only have social skills for a controlled environment with limited conflict, like a liberal arts campus. Even that’s questionable
8. Are getting married and having kids later (aka not needing to buy a house yet), if planning to at all.

Bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahaha!
What, were the Martians their next idea to save the real estate market?

P.S.
This is the picture the article uses for millenials looking for houses:

[imgcomment image[/img]

Tator
Tator
June 8, 2016 9:19 pm

My prediction is millennials will be buying the motor homes of the dying boomers. The motor homes will be cheap since they will flood the market, they are damn nice inside and a complete home and they will allow mobility, something critical in the future for millennials.

Realestatepup
Realestatepup
June 8, 2016 9:33 pm

So obviously I have to weight in here…this is utter nonsense. I have not worked with a buyer under 30 in over 10 years. They lack job stability and income to do so, and their student debt loan is through the roof.
The majority of buyers I work with are at least 35, have been at their jobs for over 5 years, and they have worked to pay off their debt and accumulate some kind of saving cushion for their purchase. The other group of buyers are foreigners, mostly Chinese, who have moved their money to the US and pay cash. They usually are a group of Chinese people who have pooled their funds to buy multiple multi-unit homes of 4 or more units each building.
My son is 24. No dummy. IT professional. 99% of his jobs are short-term contract jobs so they don’t have to pay benefits. Nothing permanent. This is the new normal for people under 30.
Whoever ready this stupidity and thinks it’s reality is obviously brain-dead.

Realestatepup
Realestatepup
June 8, 2016 9:36 pm

I would also like to add my son has told me numerous times “don’t plan on being a grandmother any time soon” and “sex robots will replace women”

BamBam
BamBam
June 9, 2016 7:36 am

Real Estate:

Your son’s not wrong. I graduated college in 2013, and out of all the hooking up I did, most of it was with people were in their 30’s and with careers or at least ambitions. My generation is gradually doing the Japanese thing and losing interest in sex.

Worse thing is, we’re so fucking brainwashed we think this is a good thing. Not wanting sex as much as past generations makes us “deep” and “mature”. We’re “waiting for the right one”. We collectively have a deeply unhealthy relationship with sex: It’s bad, and we’re above such base urges. Even the jokes and stories are different to older generations. Our are less above having sex and more about the bodily nature of it (Poop! Pee! Gross!), exactly the same way we were at 13. We’ve perfected the double-think of having sexual identities without any ties to sexuality.

The women are becoming bitter fat harridans whose idea of compromise is “give me everything” and honestly believe that they deserve and will get a multi-millionaire male model beta whose been waiting for the tattooed, pierced jelly roll beast of his dreams. The men are overweight dicks who believe hygiene is reserved for special occasions, living in perpetual debt and that milking money from the system is just as good as a job, and getting away with something is as good as never doing it.

So your son is right to say fuck it. The only thing that can save my generation is bringing back the saber toothed tiger. At least then we might look up from our phones.