Is the GOP Staring at Another 1930?

Guest Post by Patrick J. Buchanan

After the victory of Donald Trump in 2016, the GOP held the Senate and House, two-thirds of the governorships, and 1,000 more state legislators than they had on the day Barack Obama took office.

“The Republican Party has not been this dominant in 90 years,” went the exultant claim.

A year later, Republicans lost the governorship of Virginia and almost lost the legislature.

Came then the loss of a U.S. Senate seat in ruby-red Alabama.

Tuesday, Democrats captured a House seat in a Pennsylvania district Trump carried by 20 points, and where Democrats had not even fielded a candidate in 2014 and 2016.

Republicans lately congratulating themselves on a dominance not seen since 1928, might revisit what happened to the Class of 1928.

In 1930, Republicans lost 52 House seats, portending the loss of both houses of Congress and the White House in 1932 to FDR who would go on to win four straight terms. For the GOP, the ’30s were the dreadful decade.

Is the GOP staring at another 1930?

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Perhaps.

Unlike 1930, though, the nation has not endured a Great Crash or gone through year one of a Great Depression where unemployment hit 10 percent in June, when the Smoot-Hawley tariff was passed.

Today, the economy is moving along smartly. The labor force is larger than it has ever been. Workers are re-entering and seeking jobs. Black and Hispanic unemployment are at record lows. Confidence is high. Our Great Recession is 10 years in the past.

The problem for Republicans may be found in a truism: When the economy is poor, the economy is the issue. When the economy is good, something else is the issue.

A good economy did not save the GOP in the 18th Congressional District of Pennsylvania, where the party’s tax cut was derided by Democrat Conor Lamb as a wealth transfer to the rich. Nor did Lamb hurt himself by implying Republicans were planning to pay for their tax cut by robbing Social Security and Medicare.

Republican candidate Rick Saccone reportedly stopped using the tax cut as his major issue in his TV ads that ran closest to Election Day.

Other factors point to a bad day for the GOP on Nov. 6.

Republican retirees from Congress far outnumber Democratic retirees.

Democratic turnout has been reaching record highs, while GOP turnout has been normal. And even in the special elections Democrats have lost, they are outperforming the Democrats who lost in 2016.

Relying upon hostility to Trump to bring out the resistance, savvy Democrats are taking on the political coloration of their districts and states, rather than of the national party of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders.

There is, however, troubling news from Pennsylvania for Nancy Pelosi.

Lamb promised voters of “Deerhunter” country he would not support San Francisco Nancy for speaker. Look for Democrats in districts Trump carried to begin talking of the “need for new leaders.”

Trump seems fated to be the primary target of attack this fall, and not only in districts Clinton carried. For an average of national polls shows that disapproval of his presidency is 14 points higher than his approval rating. And this is when the economy is turning up good numbers not seen in this century.

At the national level, Democrats will turn 2018 into a referendum on the Trump persona and Trump presidency. For while the Trump base is loyal and solid, the anti-Trump base is equally so, and appreciably larger.

Lest we forget, Hillary Clinton, not the most charismatic candidate the Democrats have put up in decades, beat Trump by nearly 3 million votes. And while Trump pierced the famous “blue wall” — the 18 states that voted Democratic in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012 — the demographic trend that created the wall is still working.

White voters, who tend to vote Republican, continue to decline as a share of the population. Peoples of color, who vote 70 to 90 percent Democratic in presidential elections, are now nearly 40 percent of the nation.

Mass migration into America is re-enforcing that trend.

Moreover, millennials, who have many elections ahead of them, are more liberal than seniors, who have fewer elections ahead and are the GOP base.

But if Republicans face problems of demography, the party of “tax and tax, spend and spend, and elect and elect” appears to be reaching the end of its tether. Federal deficits are rising toward trillion-dollar levels.

The five largest items in the budget — Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, defense, interest on the debt — are rising inexorably. And there appears no disposition in either party to cut back on spending for education, college loans, food stamps, housing assistance or infrastructure.

If the Fed did not retain the power to control the money supply, then the fate of New Jersey and Illinois, and beyond, of Greece and Argentina, would become our national destiny.

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26 Comments
Iska Waran
Iska Waran
March 16, 2018 7:49 am

They gave us what we didn’t ask for – tax “cuts” (I’m not even sure mine aren’t going up) – instead of what we did – the wall. No new wars, but the old ones look poised to erupt into Hillaryesque regime-change.

Wolfgang
Wolfgang
  Iska Waran
March 16, 2018 10:35 am

Exactly. I’m tired of voting for all these Republicans who promise to “end Obamacare” or “do something about immigration”, then proceed to do neither. They still haven’t given us the wall, despite their so-called “dominance”. If they don’t do it this year, they will get slaughtered in the fall.

They will need to realize that the U.S. is more than an economy, it also has a culture for the people who live here. They have undermined our culture by allowing in so many immigrants, such that this nation no longer looks like anything I grew up in.

Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog
  Wolfgang
March 17, 2018 3:36 am

My guess is that Trump is the last republican president and this will be his only term. Immigration will kill the repubs, just as it is killing whites. Both absolutely intentional.

The only way this can change, that I can see, is that Trump carry out another promise, his biggest, most important promise, and drain the swamp. I see no progress on that whatsoever. Taking McCabe’s pension is not draining the swamp. Hanging him by the neck until dead, and not alone, would be draining the swamp.

And that refers to saving both the repubs (about who I give not a fuck) and saving whites. The way this thing is going, Russia (and maybe New Zealand) will be the only white-majority countries left on earth. Think about that. From ruling the world to a couple of isolated enclaves, in under a hundred years. What the fuck. Have we really been such an easy target for the jews?

pyrrhus
pyrrhus
  Iska Waran
March 16, 2018 11:23 pm

The tax cut was a plus, but not enough to overcome the massive vote fraud in Democratic run areas…Actual turnout of minorities is highly questionable. In Chicago, it is known that few black males are registered to vote, yet a lot of votes show up anyway on the South Side….

Gilnut
Gilnut
March 16, 2018 8:42 am

Personally, I’d prefer the two-headed monster that is the Republican and Democratic party self destruct and reconverge into a myriad of political parties.

Ardie Swarzton
Ardie Swarzton
  Gilnut
March 17, 2018 9:20 am

That’s exactly the point. Dems or Reps – it’s all tax & spend. They’re rewarding the wrong behavior, which means we’re no longer running a country or a team or anything like that. Nobody is willing to give anything anymore because why would they. Our infrastructure is 3rd World, which stifles economic growth, any kind of risk taking and puts further burden on the few idiots left who go to work for 10 hours and need to spend 2 or 3 hours to even do that. Rights of queers and other marginal groups have taken 50% of the political narrative. Goldman runs Treasury, until last week State was run by Exxon. Drain the swamp my ass.

MarshRabbit
MarshRabbit
March 16, 2018 8:48 am

“three dialectical stages of development: a thesis, giving rise to its reaction; an antithesis, which contradicts or negates the thesis; and the tension between the two being resolved by means of a synthesis….one can consider it thus: problem → reaction → solution. Although this model is often named after Hegel, he himself never used that specific formulation.”

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialectic#Hegelian_dialectic

Anonymous
Anonymous
  MarshRabbit
March 16, 2018 9:39 am

And each Synthesis is the new Thesis.

Which leaves no stability, just a constant move in the direction of the last Synthesis, currently toward Leftist tyrannical dominance in the political dialectic.

The process is more commonly known by most people as compromise than as dialectic synthesis, and is readily observable in both historical record and daily thought and action.

Ardie Swarzton
Ardie Swarzton
  Anonymous
March 17, 2018 9:24 am

It’s not even a leftist tyrannical dominance. Look, our freedom was attacked BIG time with the Patriot Act under the Reps. Then came NSA recording EVERYTHING, East German style. Habeas Corpus – still suspended, offshore and secret prisons – still running. You say one wrong word at work -> loss of job and health insurance. That is NOT freedom of speech. We’ve had a full year of Reps running everything and our freedoms are still gone and there is no debate at all about getting them back. Thanks for nothing reps. So, forget the leftist tyrannical dominance. Those “voted” to represent us are taking a giant dump on top of us.

KeyserSusie
KeyserSusie
  MarshRabbit
March 16, 2018 12:54 pm

Pyramids R Us

Although not necessarily a logical response, I am triggered to share about Karman’s Drama Triangle aka DDT. The Dreaded Drama Triangle. The response is The Empowerment Dynamic.
http://powerofted.com/the-drama-triangle/

Iconoclast421
Iconoclast421
March 16, 2018 9:30 am

I was shocked to realize that if the 10 year note yield were to simply drop to where it was 3 months ago, the yield curve would invert and signal a recession for 2019 possibly even this year. That is how close it is now…

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Iconoclast421
March 16, 2018 9:40 am

So why did it fail to signal a recession three months ago if it doesn’t now?

BB
BB
March 16, 2018 10:11 am

Rabbit , in other words the ” Ends justify the means ” in order to get synthesis which is the new thesis as anonymous just said .This is the same model the Elites are using to trap us in their Satanic New World Order. They create the crisis ,we usually react in fear then they offer their solution to problems they created in the first . Problem , Crisis ( thesis ) reaction ( antithesis ) =solution ( synthesis).Do lawyers generally think like this ?

Anonymous
Anonymous
March 16, 2018 10:43 am

The GOP’s problem is that it doesn’t understand that while the Democrats can ignore their base anytime except election campaigns, the Republican base cannot be ignored in between elections.

Conservatives tend to have much longer and more complex attention spans than Leftists, they don’t forget immediately after an election why they elected them and usually compare their job performance closely to their campaign promises and platforms.

The Republicans need to learn this, or they will end up becoming a minor party among minor parties.

Fleabaggs
Fleabaggs
March 16, 2018 1:40 pm

Fool me once shame on them. Fool me twice shame on me. In the mid 90’s a lot of us worked hard to get the Governors mansion and 2/3 majorities in both houses and they promptly sold us out in the first session. Even our own libertarian rep in my district. They claimed Clinton threatened to withhold our highway funding if we didn’t accept the Deadbeat Dad Act which had little to do with Deadbeat Dads.

rhs jr
rhs jr
March 16, 2018 1:42 pm

If someone appeared that people believed would actually build the Wall, prosecute the political and banking criminals, stop the chem-spraying, cut the government waste in welfare and defense, get us out of Syria, end the Rothschild Central Bank, end Vote Fraud, end Affirmative Action, replace the Dept of Education with School Choice, turn the DUMBs into Public Bomb Shelters, tell the truth about UFOs, purge the Communist and NeoCons from all agencies of the government, end the Black Budget, etc, then the two headed Illuminati Party would collapse as fast as that slapstick bridge in Miami.

Jake
Jake
  rhs jr
March 16, 2018 3:12 pm

What exactly is the “truth” about UFO’s?

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Jake
March 16, 2018 5:27 pm

No one knows what they are.

pyrrhus
pyrrhus
  Jake
March 16, 2018 11:25 pm

That they exist….

Ardie Swarzton
Ardie Swarzton
  Jake
March 17, 2018 9:27 am

Jake, the country is lost because of people like you who have the concentration span of an ant. RHS nails the problem definition and if enough of us a) saw that and b) had a healthy debate to do something, we’d have a chance. But no – comes the UFO comment from you. Can’t fix stupid 🙁

TS
TS
March 16, 2018 2:52 pm

Blah, blah, blah – same bullshit about tweaked and flat out fraudulent econ. numbers.
The GOP, of which I bailed from, is reaping the consequences of their unending hypocrisy, corruption and greed. Lying bastards. I no longer consider them the lesser of two evils, they only present a minute difference in rhetoric.
Dems, Reps; the only difference as far as any meaningful results is the capital at the end of their name.

pyrrhus
pyrrhus
  TS
March 16, 2018 11:27 pm

No, the Democrats want you dead, and will do something about that when they get in power again…The Republicans are merely indifferent. If that doesn’t make a difference to you, your problem, enjoy the boxcar.

Rob
Rob
March 16, 2018 3:41 pm

Trump has a few good ideas but his delivery is horrible. Worst than horrible. The Repubs were spineless for eons and then all of a sudden Trump is shouting profanities 2″ from everyone’s face. It boggles my mind how Trump became a billionaire. Seriously. Its too late for any politician. The USA with $21Trillion in debt paying close to $500 Billion in interest annually with expectations of annual deficits increasing to over $1Trillion is an absolute blowup 2026 nightmare. Overall, I think Trump knows he doesn’t have a chance in 2020 and he’s trying to get as many things done as he possibly can to delay the inevitable.

pyrrhus
pyrrhus
  Rob
March 16, 2018 11:29 pm

Trump is under constant assault, unlike any President in history. Still, he has gotten some things done that Reagan didn’t accomplish.

javelin
javelin
March 16, 2018 4:23 pm

I have said it many times in the past 6 months—enjoy the reprieve and get your house in order.
By 2020 the globalists/leftists may control both houses and hold the presidency. The push-back and hatred of these frothing leftists against the remnant will be at a scale we have not imagined. ( just imagine California’s insanity as Federal policy.)

By the time the NWO/one worlders/globalists/”democratic Marxism” etal have lashed back against the deplorables with the full power of the Deep State and Shadow Government, we may not even have a Constitution, Heritage, History or sovereign nation anymore.

This may be the last non-Dem potus for decades ( or ever when demographics of the aged baby boomers, immigration onslaught and low birth rates of white americans arefactored into the equation.)

Some of the things to expect? …….Hate Speech: censoring and control of the internet will reach Big Brother levels as we are seeing in Europe. MSM: now that any pretense of unbiased news coverage is gone, the onslaught of blatant state controlled propaganda will be at unprecedented levels. Immigration: The borders will fly open and millions will flood in–even many imported in from Islamic countries worldwide. They will intentionally be relocated in purple or low-populated red districts to ensure the Dems never lose the house again. Guns: This may be the last stand but another large, staged shooting or two and with Dems in power we will see near confiscatory levels of gun control. It will be incremental–only handguns or hunting rifles remain legal–then eventually a ” voluntary” gun turn-in and then finally a ban with some well publicized seizures and SWAT team raids, cops killing and military armed teams busting “militant” militias……….and this will be just some of the insanity headed our way.

Again, get your house n order, physically financially and maybe most importantly, spiritually.

Macumazahn
Macumazahn
March 17, 2018 7:47 pm

Thanks to the usurpation of Presidential power by the corrupt courts, the Trump Presidency is going to be nothing more than a delaying action. Once he’s out, the custodial state will roll on unimpeded. In 50 years our descendants will look up when they hear the muezzin and say, “Que paso?”