Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
There is no doubt that we are in the process of a rising war cycle. It really appears to be more of a bitter war between leaders once again, as was the case with the last two World Wars. World War I was really about destroying the former Holy Roman Empire which had its seat of power in Vienna. That city was besieged in 1683 when the Ottoman Empire sought to conquer Europe.
If you recall, the financial panics I used to discover the Economic Confidence Model began with the Panic of 1683 caused by the invasion of the Ottoman Empire.
The War Cycle is turning up and we are looking at a possible peak as early as 2027. This is why I have been concerned about the economic crisis in 2021-2022. Once the economy turns down, it will be the fuel for the war.
We must also respect that this particular cycle is the combination of both civil and international unrest. I do not believe we are in a cycle of conquest. Nobody wants to conquer and occupy each other — neither China, Russia, nor the USA. So, on the international level, it appears we are dealing with old grudges. When I have asked why Russia is our enemy since they abandoned communism, the only response I get is that, “Well, they are Russian!”
World War I unfolded when the Archduke of Austria was assassinated by a Serb. He was heir to the throne of the old Holy Roman Empire. The French hated Germany for they were defeated under Napoleon. Additionally, in the first Treaty of Versailles in 1871 Germany became an empire at the expense of France. So it was really very much about settling old debts.
World War II was created by the oppression of the German people for the sins of their leaders. That led the German people to turn to Hitler because they were humiliated.
We would classify Napoleon and Hitler as warmongers of conquest. The Russian Revolution in 1917 and that in China led by Mao were class warfares instigated domestically that manifested into revolutions arising from civil unrest.
In Russia, the revolution really began in October 1905 when czarist troops opened fire on a peaceful group of workers marching to the Winter Palace in St. Petersburg to petition their grievances to Czar Nicholas II. Some 500 protestors were massacred on “Bloody Sunday,” setting off months of protest and disorder throughout Russia. It was 8.6 years later that World War I erupted in 1914. This signaled that there would be a rise in tensions 112 years later which would be 2017.
Vladimir Lenin was born in 1870 into a middle-class family in Ulyanovsk, Russia, but when he was a teenager, he became political after his older brother was executed in 1887 for plotting to assassinate Czar Alexander III. When he reached the age of 17, he was expelled from Kazan Imperial University for taking part in an illegal student protest. Then in December 1895, Lenin and the other leaders of the Union were arrested. Lenin was jailed for a year and then exiled to Siberia for three years. Upon his release in 1900, Lenin went to Western Europe.
In 1902, he published a pamphlet entitled “What Is to Be Done?” Lenin argued that only a revolution would bring socialism to Russia by force. In 1903, Lenin met with other Russian Marxists in London and established the Russian Social-Democratic Workers’ Party. From the outset, Lenin’s Bolsheviks (Majoritarians) advocated violence and the Mensheviks (Minoritarians) advocated a democratic movement toward socialism. The split became official in the 1912 conference of the Bolshevik Party.
If we use this as the start date, then we arrive at 2024 where we may see the sharp rise in tensions on a class warfare foundation worldwide once again. This may mark the culmination of the Marxist-Socialism movement that could end in blood in the streets once again.
Consequently, this World War III is more likely to be a combination of class warfare and settling old scores. The period of concern would be the 2024-2027 time frame from a cyclical perspective (sorry, no visions for I lack the clairvoyant ability).
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It would be great if our leaders would go back and read President Kennedy’s commencement address at American University in June of 1963. It was here that he announced the establishment of a limited nuclear test ban treaty. Our leaders need to go on a retreat and meditate on the profound nature of this speech. At one point Kennedy said:
“I have, therefore, chosen this time and this place to discuss a
topic on which ignorance too often abounds and the truth is
too rarely perceived—yet it is the most important topic on
earth: world peace.
What kind of peace do I mean? What kind of peace do we
seek? Not a Pax Americana enforced on the world by American
weapons of war. Not the peace of the grave or the security of
the slave. I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace
that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables
men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life
for their children—not merely peace for Americans but peace
for all men and women—not merely peace in our time but
peace for all time.”
Can you imagine an American President saying this and meaning it in today’s political climate? Kennedy went on to say:
So, let us not be blind to our differences—but let us also direct attention to our common interests and to the means by
which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end
now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe
for diversity. For, in the final analysis, our most basic common
link is that we all inhabit this small planet. We all breathe the
same air. We all cherish our children’s future. And we are all
mortal.
These may be the most profound words that an American President has ever spoken and for those who may think they are only words let me remind you that they became real and meaningful in the deepest sense on November 22, 1963 a few short months later.
The problem is alot of our “leaders” are psychopaths. They are mentally ill in a sense, and have great potential for what most of us would deem evil. They may be very high functioning with alot of wealthy and powerful social networks to support them, but beyond filling their own sense of entitlement and narcisism they aren’t “normal” people. Thus, politicians tend to be great liars and you see them do a wide range of criminality despite being such a small group.
Trump is a practiced liar, but he is still more honest then most of them. His off the cuff comments and breaks where he speaks honestly are considered him being a horrible politician (shithole countries etc) yet to alot of us he is more honest b/c his at least isn’t lying all the time. Humans were built to be tribal, we do well in small groups, the larger the groups the worse we do and the more problems that occur. The leftists create illusions of collectivism to manipulate and to feed their desire for power/control. Individualists for the most part just want left alone, and don’t tend to want to group up, but since alot of power in the modern world comes from these fake groups, its hard for individual rights people to fight back. Its hard for people that don’t care much for government to actually want to work in gov’t, so leftists tend to fill these positions. Human history is definitive peace is not the norm, ultimately its the lucky few that get to enjoy the brief periods of relative peace, war, turmoil, violence these are the norms of this world. You can explain this from a neurobiological evolutionary frame or a religious one, they both come to a similar conclusion as the quote from the Bible, Jesus stated the whole world is lying in the power of the wicked one. All these nations move toward control/power over the masses and the destruction of individual freedoms and eventually life itself.
“Jesus stated the whole world is lying in the power of the wicked one.”
It was man that transferred that power to him. There is one escape. A gift offered freely. God offers to pay that sin debt for you.
Bubbah is my hero! This is exactly right. Psychopaths primary desire is for power and control. The bigger the government the more power and control they get so they manipulate us to get bigger and bigger governments. The answer is to keep governments as small as possible to limit the power and control any one person can have. How do we get there? That’s the 64 quadrillion dollar question.
Here is exactly what government should be:
A government employment office with two rooms.
Enter the application area where prospective gov employees fill out employment applications.
Room 2 Door marked “Interviews – Your future to power”
Prospective gov employees enter room 2 fall into a crematorium.
Applying for gov employment is prima facia admission of guilt of your intent to levy war on your neighbors so you are instantly cremated and government power means the criminal’s burning body powers a generator to run the lights in the applications room.
Government minimized and now actually useful to humanity.
That’s the speech that got him killed.
If you want peace, be prepared for war. We’re going to be in an active and nasty war, even as we are now being dragged kicking and screaming against it, whether we like it or not, and our “fearless leaders”, (both parties, whoever is Prez, etc) will ensure it happens. But, who benefits from this tragedy? To know who’s really in charge of your country and society, one must simply ask the question, who are you not allowed to criticize?? I think the more discerning here already know the answer to that (((question))). Plan For the Worst. Be Prepared. For Everything. Will the Worst happen? Probably not. But you’ll be ready for it. If not, we’ll try to enjoy what you leave behind when (((they))) and their minions come for you. Here’s to seeing you on the other side of this turmoil, and not on fiddlers green!!
Ah… A fellow Cavalry man! Also a man of my own heart. True words, not much time left for talking, and most of your supplies should already be laid in. Tempus Fugit
I like the fourth turning theory better… Chip
These politicians all belong to secret societies that worship Satan that is what makes them ” not normal ” thus great liars.Most in Washington DC belong to these ” societies ” . It’s the only way you can get into the top positions. They will lie and say they don’t belong or worship Satan or have sold their souls but any one who has done just a little research knows better .
As far as world War 3 goes we are already in it . They have got to have their third world War in order to bring in their New World order or Government. World war 2 is going to look innocent compared to world War 3. By the way Hitler did everything he could to avoid that war. What we have been told are lies just to slander Hitler. Hitler greatest gift to the German people was in 1933 when he took control of the money from the Jewish owned banks and issue the money debt free , interest free and as value. Thus from 1933 to 1939 German became a super power that fast. In 1934 the world Jewish community declared War on German and her people in 1934. This was really the beginning of the war. Watch ” The Greatest Story Never Told ” and Europa : The last Battle. ” For the Truth . These are long but well worth the time. You will see what Hitler was up against and what we will be up against one day when white people in America finally figure out they have been betrayed.
Kennedy was doing the same as Hitler. He began to issue the money debt free . He was going to abolish the Federal reserve . This is what got him killed. The first thing LBJ did was he reversed what Kennedy was doing and returned our money back to the Federal reserve. LBJ did this on the plane going back to Washington DC just after he became President. Look it up. I firmly believe LBJ was part of the plot to kill Kennedy.
Annoying or anonymous is BB on another phone as my other phone has had a mind fart.
+ 100. Anon has it figured out.
Errr no. Not a single phrase of your comment is true or accurate. Tell the folks in Poland that Hitler was doing everything he could to avoid war…..you are just making up shit to justify your own Jew hatred. Sure there are always odd things that happen…eg. eugenicist Henry Ford financing Hitler (non-Jew BTW) and lots of soft encouragement for Adolph from various state and non-state actors. But let’s be clear, he was simply a skilled orator capitalizing on the overly punitive peace terms from WWI imposed by the victors. The German people have always been susceptible to autocrats/centralized authority and in combination with their native industriousness and bellicosity…..it has often been a dangerous (to their neighbors or invaders like Rome, etc) combination.
The Jews always make a convenient target for demonization as the “Other”…..they are separated by culture and their tribal success breeds envy which makes for a perfect storm of persecution. You see this repeated over and over again, Spain, Russia, Egypt, etc. Seems to be the fate/punishment of the Jews…..the price they pay for non-assimilation.
Adolf was bat-shite fucking crazy and thank god he was or WWII might have had a very different outcome……so many classic mistakes (lesson….never make a corporal your strategic leader!) not finishing the Allies at Dunkirk, not invading England, invading Russia, never retreating on the eastern front to regroup/refocus on penetrating the oil fields instead of Moscow and on and on……So pretend all you want that Hitler was something other than what he was…..but it doesn’t make it so.
So very right. Enough of the tiresome antisemitism for the sake of antisemitism. People certainly have a right to speak their mind but to see the Jewish strawman behind every human event…
and i thought the end game was to exterminate the REAL Israelites so Zionism could take their place…
You sir have nailed it!
The only problem with your premise is that young John Kennedy wrote a book “While England Slept” that won him the Pulitzer Prize around 1940. It was about how fucked up and maniacal Hitler and all the other Nazi fuques were and how stupid England was under the loser Neville Chamberlain to not stomp on him when they had the ability to do so before German rearmament got into full swing.
You sound like you may be dallying with the idea this Nazi filth had something worthwhile to offer. He didn’t. Don’t be one of the drooling fuques imagining himself to BB fashionable in jodhpurs, shiny knee high boots and the obligatory Sam Browne Belt rig. As an aside, a former German Naval Infantryman who is from my great grandfather’s town and goes to my church had to walk from Denmark to Germany after VE day in those knee high boots and he said it was easily the worst experience of his life.
Harrington Richardson
Where to begin.
Kennedy wrote a thesis while in his senior year at Harvard. It referred to Winston Churchill’s book of the same name. The basic contention of Kennedy’s thesis, which was rated magna cum laude and cum laude plus by the Harvard staff, was to support the doctrine of appeasement proffered by Chamerblain. The thesis was redrafted into book form at Joseph Kennedy’s request by Arthur Krock of the New York Times and was originally titled, “Appeasement at Munich”. This book was later re-titled, “While England Slept” for publication in the United States. It never won the Pulitzer Prize.
The book by Kennedy that did win the Pulitzer was titled, “Profiles In Courage”. Kennedy actually authored this book while bed ridden from back surgery, unlike the earlier tome, written by Krock, attributed to him.
4th Turning theory applies specifically to the English speaking peoples at least in terms of the timing for USA (1776, 1860, 1940, 2020 etc) other population groups have their own generational cycles that may not match up with our timeline. I like the 80 years/4 generations theory better than the more obtuse “War” cycle of 112 years or whatever along with other intersecting cycles of something…….sounds like “SONK” to me or scientification of non-knowledge. The Strauss and Howe approach are simple and elegant showing both historical validity, predictive power, and simple common sense.
I’m afraid.
Your post inspired me to find these lyrics from Drive-By Truckers:
Angels and Fuselage
Looking out the window, the trees are getting closer it seems.
Thinking bout you Darling.
Adding up the cost of these dreams.
Strapped to this projectile, just a blink ago I was back in school.
Smoking by the gym door, practicing my rock-star attitude
And I’m scared shitless of what’s coming next.
I’m scared shitless, these angels I see in the trees are waiting for me.
The engines have stopped now. We all know we are going down. Last call for alcohol.
Sure wish I could have another round.
And I’m scared shitless of what’s coming next.
Scared shitless, these angels I see in the trees are waiting for me.
Waiting for me.
Friends in the swamp.
Friends on the ground, in the trees.
Angels and fuselage.
Saw DBT live twice once at the New Daisy Theater in Memphis, I have one of their T-Shirts for the album, “Righteous Path”.
There is one thing for certain, there is NOTHING in it for any of us but death and destruction. Nothing noble about signing up for your own demise.
Ahh, the doom porn channel, I love it.
The older a person gets, the more doom porn seems to be on the mind, this article and comments are meaningless to a teenager, who knows nothing about life and is full of hope.
It is only after you have been shit upon, by life, do you get to understand and appreciate the end of times.
It has always been this way, think about it, those scribes that wrote Revelations were the original authors on this subject, and old farts have been prophesying about the “end of this shit” ever since.
I get it, I truly do, but, I also have to give heed to the teenager perspective, and not buy into anyone’s theory, it’s just my survival mechanism.
As to the perception that there is a cabal of elite’s who have enough money and power to cause WWIII, well, let’s just say, they seem to have always been at the top, and they will never go away, even after all the slaughtering is done.
It’s not that they are smarter or better, they are just born into a lifestyle so extravagant, that they are willing to kill everyone to keep it.
More like 2025, even 2026 for the start. It’s going to be a while after Trump leaves offices for the shooting to start.
Hammer ,just read a little bit of history you dumbest. Those Poland people were murdering German people who lived in Poland. They murdered tens of thousands before Hitler’s invasion This was a direct response to this murder.
Hammer ,I don’t blame all Jews . I know it is the very wealthy but read how they do the same thing in country after country. They pretend to be your friend until they get control of the culture through the control of the media which is usually buy with counterfeit money printed by the banking system. It’s the same shit over and over you Meathead as in all in the family.. Hitler was not bat shit crazy. He knew he had to take control of the money if Germans were to have any chance at freedom . This was the real reason for World War Two . Do some research .I drive a truck for a living but I’m still am able to do research . There is no excuse for your ignorance . I’m not trying to be mean or hateful I just wish you would read some history. Or watch Europa : the final Battle or The greatest story never told on YouTube before they are taken down. Or better yet read part of the Talmud .
Ok asshat put up or stfu provide a couple of links to thousands of Germans killed by Poles! There was one German false flag to initiate hostilities but that was it.
Smart guy. I read all his stuff. But he misses a critical thing about economics: oil is the economy. World Wars 1 and 2 were fought over resources. Alliances may have been formed over grudges as were the justification for war to the public, but wars are fought over resources, period. With WW2 it was oil and WW3 will be oil.
Economist like Martin lump energy/oil in with steel, sugar,etc. But oil is used in everything, even wind and solar and nuclear. We got the cheap stuff out of the ground already. What’s left is too expensive to be profitable for the great unwashed masses. Debt is a cover for the drag of increasingly expensive energy (as are fake stats). The powers that be have decided that the solution is fewer mouths to feed and fewer owners of the remaining cheap oil reserves. WW3 solves both.
Once WW3 starts, the global economy grinds to a halt as does the flows of food. The current phase of the economic war is not only about oil but food. With the grand solar minimum approaching, devastating crop losses are already happening and are likely to intensify over the next ten years. This will all be added to the current (increasing) civil strife.
How’s that for a fourth turning finale?
I will take apocalypse for $300!
Armstrong didn’t miss anything. His cycle analysis says food is the lynchpin that will destabilize societies when crops fail. The price of oil won’t be the cause of famine. The lack of any petoleum products at all will collapse society after the shooting starts.
The price of oil $148/barrel in 2008 when the economy was red-hot, then crashed on overvalued, over heated housing market. $148 oil had nothing to do with the economic nosedive, overleveraged banks caused it. They had to be rescued from bad real estate bets. I spent a month in Barbados in 1976 when gas was over $4/gal. It wasn’t considered a high price there when the minimum wage in the US was $2.15/hr. The economy was doing fine, such as it was.
Refinery capacity is the real choker. It’s why gas goes up on Memorial Day, 4tth of July, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas/New years no matter what the cost of oil is. Venezuela and Mexico have plenty of oil and very little refinery capacity. When WWIII starts, the first thing that will get torched is oil refineries. Post WWIII, good luck getting any petroleum products. Think bicycle.
Food/agriculture today REQUIRES petroleum products, lots of them, seed to stove, the whole way. Oil energy agriculture will be a long-lost memory after rockets are launched. Hunger will be a global problem before then. Without oil, starvation on a global scale is certain; there won’t be enough living to bury the dead.
Expensive oil doesn’t cause wars. Hungry, scared, pissed-off people do. It will be famine that gets the ball rolling. Everybody is ready to burn something down when they are hungry and ignored. WWIII won’t just be a kinetic war, it’ll be fires out of control everywhere, crop-eating pests everywhere, famine everywhere, and plagues… there’ll be no end of them. All those weakened immune systems and corpses will create a smorgasbord for every pathogen known to man.