I read Bill Bonner’s Diary regularly. Bill cuts through the smoke and mirrors, and explain things in understandable, matter-of-fact terms.
He recently wrote, Don’t Bet on America.
“Never, ever bet against America,” says the Oracle of Omaha (Warren Buffet), perhaps exaggerating.
Countries, like individuals, make mistakes. …. It was a bad idea to bet against America throughout most of the 20th century….
But this is the 21st century. America’s capital industries are losing value. Its GDP growth is slowing. Its government – technically insolvent already – prints $1 million PER SECOND to cover its deficits. …. Its men folks’ life expectancy is falling. Its Swamp is rising.
And its people are dependent on government handouts. They seem ready to panic whenever any threat – no matter how implausible or remote – presents itself.
…. Here’s The New York Times stoking the panic:
Rural towns that one month ago were unscathed are suddenly hot spots for the virus. It is rampaging through nursing homes, meatpacking plants and prisons, killing the medically vulnerable and the poor, and new outbreaks keep emerging in grocery stores, Walmarts or factories, an ominous harbinger of what a full reopening of the economy will bring.”
Bonner concludes:
“Someday, sober historians will look back and wonder: What were they thinking? But for now…the country Buffett won’t bet against looks like a bad bet.” (Emphasis mine)
He adds more fuel to the fire:
“Economist Gary Shilling puts this into perspective:
This pandemic is likely to be the most disruptive financial and social event since World War II, with equally long-lasting consequences. Many will no doubt restrain spending in future years to rebuild savings, (Emphasis mine) especially since the crisis caught them at a time of high debts and short financial reserves.”
Bonner concludes with a question about small businesses:
“…. A new survey from the Society for Human Resource Management found that 52% expect to be out of business within six months.”
Whoa! Have the feds put half of America’s small firms out of business?” (Emphasis mine)
Jim Rickards piles on; Don’t Believe the Happy Talk:
“Nothing like what we’re witnessing has ever happened before. Even the savviest analysts cannot yet internalize what happened.
…. Comparisons to the 2008 crisis or even the 1929 stock market crash that started the Great Depression fail to capture the magnitude of the economic damage of the virus.
…. Unfortunately, the economy will not return to normal for years. Some businesses will never return to normal because they’ll be bankrupt before they are even allowed to reopen.
Businesses like restaurants, bars, pizza parlors, dry cleaners, hair salons and many similar businesses make up 44% of total U.S. GDP and 47% of all jobs. This is where many of the job losses, shutdowns and lost revenues occurred.”
| “If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to. This is the last stand on earth.”
– Ronald Reagan |
I kept waking in the middle of the night, haunted by their remarks. I grew up as a flag-waving kid, believing in America. I’ve traveled the world and believe, despite many warts, America is still the greatest country on earth.
We build fences to keep people out, not to lock our population in. Are they giving me a wake-up call? I’m afraid for future generations. I avoided writing about the subject, not wanting to promote doom and gloom.
Events that followed
I believe the adage, “when the student is ready to learn, the teacher shall appear!” My wife Jo sent a link to a powerful presentation by Admiral McRaven (of Make Your Bed fame) about conquering your fears. It is the epitome of the American spirit and hope.
While Bonner concluded that “But for now” America is a bad bet, I am not willing to throw in the towel and give up the American Dream.
Place your bets!
My first job was working at a race track. When you bet on a horse, you are betting against all other horses in the race. Professional gamblers look at many factors; competition, how long is the race, past history of success and current conditions. Are we betting on America turning on a dime, decade, or century?
| If America is a bad bet, who are you betting on, China, Russia, the European Union, Japan? |
This Heritage Foundation article, The American Spirit, explains the American Dream:
“Are America’s best days behind her? Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, seems to think so. “The American dream is a myth,” he writes in a recent column….
Negative thoughts like this are nothing new. It stands to reason that tough economic times will breed pessimism. Sometimes, though, we need to remind ourselves of the principles this country was founded on, and reconnect with the genius that created the United States of America, the only country founded not on identity, but on ideas.
…. Consider the phrase, “the American dream.” The words themselves reveal something extraordinary. In all the history of man, there has been only one country with the word “dream” attached to it. There is no French Dream, Russian Dream or Chinese Dream. …. From 194 countries, people have come to America to pursue this dream.
…. In America, you can start from anywhere,…and make your own way and your own life. At any time, you can decide to change and do something completely different. Your life is yours to chart.”
American Spirit always finds a way.
Many local sheriffs stood up to their superiors, not enforcing very questionable executive orders. How many small businesses continued to serve their customers, defying government dictates? I noticed all the TV pundits managed to get their hair done.
Prohibition bred an entire industry of bootleggers, and their drivers ended up spawning NASCAR.
Remember the stupid 55-mph speed limit? How soon before you owned a Citizens Band (CB) radio? If a cop appeared on an interstate, within a couple minutes everyone within 20 miles knew, “There is a bear heading northbound at the 261-mile marker. 10-4 good buddy!”
How about past success?
A message from friend Snow C. hit my inbox:
“It’s a mess out there now. For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were born in 1900.
On your 14th birthday, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday. 22 million people perish in that war. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits and continues until your 20th birthday. 50 million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.
On your 29th birthday, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, the World GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy.
When you turn 39, World War II starts. On your 41st birthday, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war.
Smallpox was epidemic until you were in your 40’s, killing 300 million people during your lifetime.
At 50, the Korean War starts. 5 million perish. From your birth, until you are 55 you dealt with the fear of Polio, experiencing friends and family being paralyzed and/or dying.
At 55 the Vietnam War begins.
During the Cold War, you lived each day with the fear of nuclear annihilation. On your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, almost ended.
When you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends. 4 million people perish in that conflict.
Think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How did they endure all of that? Let’s try to keep things in perspective.”
Past success? That generation not only endured, they also set the foundation for the most prosperous country in the history of the world.
American Spirit is saying, “enough is enough.” Americans will find a way to work around ridiculous, over-zealous government regulations and immoral government employees. Americans survived the social unrest of the ’60s, progress was made, and we will survive stronger once again.
Recall the prediction, “Many will no doubt restrain spending in future years to rebuild savings.”
| The parents of baby boomers lived through the Great Depression. They learned the value of saving and living within their means. Is that a bad lesson for the current generation to learn? |
“A bird sitting on a tree is never afraid of the branch breaking, because their trust is not on the branch but on its own wings. Always believe in yourself.” – Unknown |
What about all the small businesses failing?
For a country to recover from economic despair, it requires citizens to accept the challenge. Small business owners are entrepreneurs, depending on their personal ingenuity and efforts to survive. Are they going to just give up? Of course not! They will pick themselves up and do what they do best.
I’m betting on America. The race will not be a sprint; it will start slowly and pick up steam. The economies and debts of the rest of the world are worse than ours; America is the odds-on favorite. There is still enough of the American Spirit and Dream alive to recover and thrive.
One caveat. If the government repeals the second amendment and attempts to take away Americans’ ability to protect themselves, all bets are off. Our nation will split apart. Let’s hope it does not come to that.
For more information, check out my website or follow me on FaceBook.
Until next time…
Dennis
“Economic independence is the foundation of the only sort of freedom worth a damn.” – H. L. Mencken
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It has been my experience that you have to live a lesson of this nature in order to learn it well. If you simply read or hear about it from someone else then you are more than likely to have doubts regarding its value. It is my opinion young folks are fixin to learn a valuable and hard lesson. Let them soldier on and get it done.
Young folks would be, anyone under the age of 65 for the most part.
I hate to sound the pessimist but that was then, this is now.
In 1900 our dollar was still backed by gold.
IN 1900 there was no welfare/warfare state to speak of.
In 1900 people did not have the MSM to keep them brain-dead.
In 1900 the American people were self-reliant.
In 1900 Americans still had a desire to be free. In 2020 they just want to be “safe”.
Need I go on?
I can’t think of any other place on the planet to be; just saying the next few years are probably going to be very interesting.
Hopefully there will be a remnant that can rebuild on our ruins.
In 1900, an eighth grade education was better than a HS diploma in 2020
I feel you might be able to say it was better than a college degree of the present day.
I’m BETTING ON AMERICA, the south and the southwest only, the left coast and the Yankees are too f’d up with the stupidz to help and they are to blame for the mess we are in ………..period. Yankees and west coasters are on their own IMO, whatever happens to them, tough shitski. We will repopulate the north and commieland after we clean house.
If YOU are a real American, sound off that you are betting on the last states with any love for this country!!!!!
Downers expected from the commies and dumbshits.
A little lite on facts, no?
Well said. Stack ’em and compost ’em. That’s all they’re good for.
Maybe it will be such as the Native Americans, their empires rose and fell and not a whole lot of facts on why . All of them cut out a little piece, raided each other, hated each other.
Ginger- Where do you stand? Are you betting on American? If not, who are you betting on…..China , Russia… WHO? And what’s this thing about facts? Turn on any media outlet of any kind and tell me if you see/hear facts…..hardy har. We don’t need no stinking facts Ginger, we need people to get their head out of their ass and admit the Yankee criminal cartel has ruined what was and could have been. Leaving DC in charge is unthinkable unless actors are tossed out on their heads.
Please clue us in on who you are going to bet on Ginger and throw in some facts to plead your case.
I don’t bet.
Nobody wins.
You tell me, what will get the cities like Atlanta functional, its in the South, other than war and destruction.
Sit on the fence Ginger, I’ll bet on America. Go BIG or don’t go at all.
Ginger, European diseases had a lot to do with Native American de-population starting in the early sixteenth century. The Sioux were an anomaly: they were extraordinary traders and actually had control of the upper Missouri River area so they could prosper from trading. The one thing that set them apart: they obtained vaccines from Europeans and that allowed their tribe to grow while other tribes were dying off. Another influencer: some tribes obtained horses and others chose not to do so (having horses meant the tribe would have to assume a nomad type of life style versus a “stay at home” type of life style).
Get a copy of “Dreams of El Dorado”-a well written history of the American West.
Read “Son of the Morning Star” by Evan Connell. A great book. Will try to find Dreams of El Dorado.
Anyway my whole point is that this notion of the beautiful eutopia of the Noble Red Man is no different than the notion of the deprived Po Black Man, and that being historical propaganda.
People are people wherever, some evil and some good, with many flavors and degrees of both of those traits.
I don’t want to go back to the “good old days” whatever they might have been. If someone says something stupid like ” back then we rode our bikes and stayed out to dark till mom called” just remember that was just a very short period in one’s life and nice to think upon, but most likly someone was getting shot or shooting someone somewhere like Vietnam, or in New York City at the same time.
This is what I live and breath everyday, the path walked neither looking to the left or right:
Jesus speaking:
“Peace I leave with you, my peace I give unto you: not as the world giveth, give I unto you. Let not your heart be troubled, neither let it be afraid.” John 14:27
Looks like a couple of commies or dumbshits have infiltrated this community.
Not I, I would not put down on her…..and if I were you I would start making plans to get out of here.