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THIS WEEK’S EDITORIAL
$4 TRILLION CRASH: It has been estimated that the collapse in global tourism from the Covid panic and fear has already cost tourist businesses over US $ 2.4 Trillion in lost revenue. This may grow to over $ 4 Trillion by the end of 2021. Many developing nations have been adversely affected as they have large and (previously) growing tourism sectors.
The worst estimate that BOOM has seen involves a 75 % drop off in tourist arrivals. Currently available data shows a 73 % decline in international tourist arrivals during 2020. Any rebound will be slow.
This is just one industry affected adversely by the Covid panic. Total global GDP is estimated to be around $ 85 Trillion. Total losses in global GDP could be in the range 5 – 10 %. One estimate seen by BOOM amounted to $ 15.6 Trillion. If so, that would approach a loss of 10 % annually for 2020 and 2021. Covid represents a dramatic loss of economic activity and most of that will be felt in the poorer nations. Unemployment and starvation will be the result.
NZ ENDS QE: The central bank of New Zealand has ended its Quantitative Easing program of asset purchases. There are some economists who think that overnight interest rates, set by the Bank of New Zealand, will inevitably rise and perhaps very soon. BOOM is not inclined to agree.
The central bank of Australia has reduced its QE program marginally. Again, there are some economists who think that this reduction in bond purchases is the beginning of inevitable further reductions. Again BOOM is not inclined to agree. And the central bank of Canada has reduced its bond purchase program. Some people are predicting that they will end their QE program by the end of this year. BOOM does not agree.
All of these central bank actions and all of these predictions about the future hinge on one thing — the arrival of persistent CPI inflation along with persistent economic growth beyond the end of 2021. BOOM has stated clearly that this is not likely and that current CPI surges are “transitory”. That is because the major critical input into advanced economies in regard to CPI inflation is wages growth. In economies where services are 70 – 80% of GDP, this is the key to generating CPI inflation. And, if wages do not grow significantly, then the pre-condition is not fulfilled.
Now, let’s look at why there has been enthusiasm for the argument that CPI inflation is breaking out. That enthusiasm is largely based upon commodity price rises. Let’s look at what is happening in that sphere of CPI influence. The topical price of Lumber in the US, for example, has collapsed by almost 70 % since May 10th. It is almost back to the price levels where it started its meteoric rise 12 months ago. US prices for Corn and Wheat also peaked on or about May 10th. The ETF traded in New York for Base Metals (DBB) also peaked then and so did the price for Copper. The one essential commodity price that has continued to rise over the last 3 months has been the price of oil. But that has recently hit a pocket of resistance and has fallen almost 10 % in the last 2 weeks.
Consumer sentiment in the US collapsed by 30 % in early 2020. That was a staggering drop. It has since recovered half of that fall but lately it seems to be falling again. If that trend in consumer sentiment continues to fall, then BOOM’s expectations of flat to lower GDP growth and lower CPI numbers will be re-enforced.
The US Bond markets are still in full agreement with BOOM. Bond prices continue to rise in all major sectors. Thus, low (and lower) interest rates seem to be here to stay for the foreseeable future.
A GRANDMOTHER SPEAKS: Republished with permission from BIZNEWS https://www.biznews.com/ Berendien Lubbe, Emeritus Professor at the University of Pretoria and Grandmother recently wrote this in regard to Covid 19 as reported on BizNews
Ms Lubbe writes: “I am a seventy-year-old grandmother, so yes, I am in the high-risk group. Over the last year or so, I have listened to a select number of politicians, scientists and medical doctors. I have been exposed to the eloquent views, hysteria and patronising utterances of these experts as well as the authoritarian voices of the Command Council. As each COVID-wave comes and goes, I have been told what to do, when to do it and the deadly consequences of not following the rules. I have been told my grandchildren should not hug me because they can kill me; my grandchildren have been told the same. Every day the main media has bombarded me with the same voices and the same messages. If I don’t behave, if my grandchildren don’t behave, I will die, or worse yet, I will personally be responsible for killing my neighbours. I may have already unwittingly done so because, for all I know, I may have already had COVID. I have certainly had a range of symptoms over the last year that ticks all the boxes. I did not test, so I don’t know. I may contract COVID tomorrow and die, I don’t know, but then again, I may die of cancer or a heart attack, I may die in a car accident or a violent crime; I just don’t know.
“What I do know is that my freedoms and choices have been taken away by people with whom I do not necessarily agree or even find particularly pure of motive. I want to hear views from all sides, I want discussion and debate in the main media and then I want to make my own choices. I have come to realise that debate has been stifled and that anyone holding a different view on any issue relating to COVID, be it medical, economic or social, have been silenced. The main media has taken it upon themselves to define what false news is, and debate has become the sacrificial lamb at the altar of a pre-determined COVID-agenda. Anyone wishing to enter into the debate is lumped together with some crackpot conspiracy theorist. I read voraciously, and I try to understand different views. I am not awestruck by people in authority, and I am not convinced of something simply because someone else says so, even if they are so-called experts. I believe in critical thinking. So why are we being told what to do by the same people who stifle all debate? Where is the discussion? I don’t particularly appreciate being told what to do simply because others who ostensibly know better are telling me.
“I have become more and more convinced that the reigning COVID scientists, politicians, doctors and media are each, for their own particular reason, on a mission to eradicate COVID at the expense of all else. COVID determines every move we make. I don’t think scientists and doctors have ever before had such extraordinary power over entire nations, and to “save lives”, they are now dictating public policy. Politicians are curtailing our freedoms because they have the ideal opportunity to do so. Humankind has been placed at the altar of COVID to serve these interests. Reputations are at stake here. We must endure every other illness as long as we don’t get COVID; we must lose our jobs, see our families suffer and our children fearful as long as we don’t get COVID. We must stifle independent thought and follow the rules just so that we don’t get COVID. We should stop questioning the lockdown measures because the reigning scientists, the politicians, the doctors know best. If we do, we risk being ridiculed, insulted and labelled conspiracy theorists.
“I have been fearful many times; I don’t want to get COVID, I don’t want my family, friends or neighbours to get COVID, but then again, I don’t want to get cancer, die in a car accident or be murdered. What I do want is my freedom to choose what I want to do in an imperfect world where dangers lurk and people die. My children and grandchildren’s future depend on it.”
TWENTY OBSERVATIONS ALL OVER THE NET: The UK-based rapper known as Zuby recently listed 20 observations on Twitter, and his list went viral. It has been re-published all over the Internet.
20 Things I’ve Learned (Or Had Confirmed) About Humanity During The “Pandemic”
- Most people would rather be in the majority, than be right.
- At least 20% of the population has strong authoritarian tendencies, which will emerge under the right conditions.
- Fear of death is only rivaled by the fear of social disapproval. The latter could be stronger.
- Propaganda is just as effective in the modern day as it was 100 years ago. Access to limitless information has not made the average person any wiser.
- Anything and everything can and will be politicized by the media, government, and those who trust them.
- Many politicians and large corporations will gladly sacrifice human lives if it is conducive to their political and financial aspirations.
- Most people believe the government acts in the best interests of the people. Even many who are vocal critics of the government.
- Once they have made up their mind, most people would rather to commit to being wrong, than admit they were wrong.
- Humans can be trained and conditioned quickly and relatively easily to significantly alter their behaviors — for better or worse.
- 1When sufficiently frightened, most people will not only accept authoritarianism, but demand it.
- People who are dismissed as “conspiracy theorists” are often well researched and simply ahead of the mainstream narrative.
- Most people value safety and security more than freedom and liberty, even if said “safety” is merely an illusion.
- Hedonic adaptation occurs in both directions, and once inertia sets in, it is difficult to get people back to “normal.”
- A significant % of people thoroughly enjoy being subjugated.
- “The Science” has evolved into a secular pseudo-religion for millions of people in the West. This religion has little to do with science itself.
- Most people care more about looking like they are doing the right thing, rather than actually doing the right thing.
- Politics, the media, science, and the healthcare industries are all corrupt, to varying degrees. Scientists and doctors can be bought as easily as politicians.
- If you make people comfortable enough, they will not revolt. You can keep millions docile as you strip their rights, by giving them money, food, and entertainment.
- Modern people are overly complacent and lack vigilance when it comes to defending their own freedoms from government overreach.
- It’s easier to fool a person than to convince them that they have been fooled.”
In economics things work until they don’t. Until next week -Make your own conclusions, do your own research. BOOM does not offer investment advice.
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Great update!
Loved Granny letter.
Multiply her by millions…
My wife and I had plans of a river cruise down the Danube. Looks like that will never be happening. Pretty much don’t expect to be allowed to leave the US on our own terms ever again.
I wonder if coyotes cross the border in both directions….
“New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said a 10-year period of record growth in tourism came to an abrupt end in 2020, as 43.7 million fewer visitors came to the city because of COVID-19. Tourists spent only $13 billion in 2020, a 73% decline from the prior year, and in the end, that will cost the city $1.2 billion in lost tax revenues in Fiscal Year 2021.”
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A third of the restaurants gone. Theater district dead or dying. Miles and miles of ugly scaffolding everywhere. Filth everywhere. Closed storefronts on seemingly every block. Crimes up in double or triple digits. A trip on the subway is taking the risk of losing your life.
“Ach do lieber, mein butterfly! Vhat say you vee go take zee vacation in Neu York City!” … says no German, or any other nationality, ever.
NYC is dead man walking.
And I didn’t even shed a single tear.
sadly youd be surprised how many people in europe think that going to NYC is somehow what it means to ‘see america’. when they hear me explain that nyc is one of the shittiest and most unexamplary things one could possibly see in the states, and instead recommend they familiarize themselves with the vastness and variety and beauty of flyover country and the people who inhabit it, they mostly laugh me off as some kind of uneducated rustic. often with some kind of smug comment about trump.
I’ve done my part in 2021 .
Kinda’ funny in talking with restaurant owners,shop owners etc. in South Dakota how the 2020 year was for them . All replied that business in most cases was up 40% or more because they didn’t completely shutdown. One shop owner who I’ve bought stuff in the past said likewise her sales were up 40% . She said with the additional influx of folks, she and the rest of the shop owners should have been infected from the Frankenflu…she said only a few were ever infected and none were that sick.
At this point I’m heading to the Virginia mountains for the Labor Day week-end. Then md-October it’s off to the Georgia mountains to chase big rainbow trout. I’ll be there again the 2nd week of January.
Magnets stick to some people that took the Pfizer or Astra-zenica shots because they contain Graphene Oxide (a deadly poison that produces symptoms that resemble CV-19). Magnets also stick to some meat packages in stores. A man’s video showed that the dust on his windshield (presumed Chem-spray) stuck to a magnet. I would not be surprised if someone is putting Graphene Oxide into the feed of some animals just before slaughter to poison people, to slam America’s Meat Industry, enhance Impossible Meat’s usage, reduce the cost of US meat China is buying, and to save the animals (who are modern slaves) and save the planet from cow farts. I don’t buy meat from stores unless it fails the small magnet (I now carry) test. PS: The West is under attack way beyond Cultural Communism now; they steal elections; frighten Useful Idiots into taking a Shot that contains a mRNA than contains AIDS, cancer, and Prion genes, that will probably kill them in 2-3 years; flood their countries with third world communist fighters; plan to replace all currency with Central Bank Digital money that will enable them to control their enemies like slave prisoners; they have control of supplies, banking, medicine, communications, police/courts/military; and Earth is now in the Eddy Minimum (which could become like the Maunder Minimum), etc. Come out of Her my people so that you do not suffer Her punishments.
Did the magnet work sometimes? I keep forgetting to bring one.
Whenever I use the gps nav in my new car it says, ‘obey traffic laws and continue to——‘
It makes me extremely angry each time. I’ve about had it, obviously.
never used one of those things. familiarize yourself in general with the basic geography of where you’re going to be and youll figure out a way on your own , even with a few backtracks or false paths, eh, whatever.
bring a paper map with you and youll avoid many of those as well.
Peter – The letter from the grandmother expresses my feelings almost 100%. In the beginning of the Coronahoax, the wife and I went along with the “15 days to flatten the curve” narrative and pretty much hunkered in place. Each day, I would check the John Hopkins site to see how the numbers were comparing to the projections. The more I looked, the more I saw that these numbers were similar to the projections on Globull Warming and were designed to scare people into submission.
After the 15 days of sheltering in place, we started back to our normal life, as much as we could due to governmental mandated restrictions & shutdowns. We have traveled by car and plane, visited with friends and relatives, hugged those we love and shaken hands with old friends. We are not going to let the government or any corporation prevent us from living life, otherwise, it would be better to not be living at all.
I do not know where this stuff ends, but I suspect it will not be pretty. I pray that I am ready for it and sad that my children, grand-children and great grand-children will have to go through it.
BTW – I really enjoy the weekly updates from Gerry that you provide. You are a real asset to TBP.
A medical shot should very rarely harm anyone and kill nobody; but more people died from the Shot this month than from the disease. When a couple years go by and 100 million Americans die from supposed variants of the disease (but not the Shot per the MSM), even their remaining Useful Idiots won’t believe their lies and that won’t be pretty. A few people may not care much though if TPTB have killed the Internet, all paper currency, the Grid is gone, there is famine, Martial Law and UN Troops patrol our streets, etc. TPTB will have to go all the way with their Evil, or survivors will fill the Oligarch’s landscaped trees and our garbage dumps with their remains.
Many thanks TNP and I am pleased that you find Gerry’s info useful. He is a great person to have on our side and is leading the fight against the evil ones in Australia. Much more to come about his actions there.
We here in Britain are living life as normal as possible but like you, fear for the future although recent developments give me hope – standing by.
>>>BOOM has developed a loyal readership which includes many of the world’s most senior economists, central bankers, fund managers and academics.
Ha, ha.
Ha, ha, ha.
Aha, ha, ha, ha ,ha, ha!
Reminds me of Socrates looking for a honest man with a lantern, or God discussing a Righteous man with Noah and Lot, Jesus being Judged by Pilate and the Sanhedrin, our SCOTUS & the most honest election in History, or CDC Directives to save lives.
But Gerry’s LinkedIn doesn’t lie -500+ connections – why should this not be true?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/gerry-brady-706025157/
There he was …. ol’ Austrian Peter sunbathing on one of the two nice days England gets every year, when suddenly out of nowhere he is joined by 30 or so brand new neighbors ….
Somebody should put a knife in that raft so it does not bring more undesirables.
Nice Stucky – but now they are all to be accommodated off-shore or jailed apparently according to our rat-catcher Home Secretary. But down here in deepest Somerset we don’t see any of it – it’s confined to the home counties and London.