How deadly is COVID-19? Early last year renowned epidemiologist Professor John Ioannidis published an analysis of seroprevalence (antibody) studies from 2020 which concluded the infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 – the proportion of those infected who die – was around 0.15% globally. It varied significantly by region, up to 0.3%-0.4% in Europe and the Americas and down to 0.05% in Africa and Asia.
Prof. Ioannidis has now published an update, using additional seroprevalence studies, though still based on 2020 data, as “IFRs in 2021 may be further affected by wide implementation of vaccinations that may substantially decrease fatality risk and by other changes (new variants and better treatment)”. The new study has a special focus on the IFR in the elderly, but also includes estimates for all age groups, though not a new overall estimate.
From analysis of 25 seroprevalence surveys across 14 countries, Prof. Ioannidis and his colleague found the IFR varied from 0.0013% in the under-20s (around one in 100,000) to 0.65% in those in their 60s. For those above 70 not in a care home it was 2.9%, rising to 4.9% for all over-70s. This means that even for the elderly, more than 95% of those infected survive – 97.1% when considering those not in a care home. For younger people the mortality risk is orders of magnitude less, with 99.9987% of under-20s surviving a bout of the virus. These survival rates include people with underlying health conditions, so for the healthy the rates will be higher again (and the fatality rates lower).
The authors note that if you allow for antibody waning of 5% per month in the elderly then the IFR reduces to 2.4% for non-care home residents and 4% for all elderly. They add that IFR varies between countries, and this variation correlates with the proportion of the elderly who are over 85, suggesting much of the difference may be accounted for by the age of the population.
The authors conclude that the IFR of COVID-19 is substantially lower than in previously reported figures. The authors discuss several limitations of the study, including a consideration of doubts over the accuracy of deaths data from India.
The study’s findings confirm that Covid is a mild disease in all but a small minority of cases. With Omicron now reducing the severity several-fold further, even the proponents of lockdown should be able to accept that this virus is well below a level where restrictions are justifiable.
It is my sincere desire to provide readers of this site with the best unbiased information available, and a forum where it can be discussed openly, as our Founders intended. But it is not easy nor inexpensive to do so, especially when those who wish to prevent us from making the truth known, attack us without mercy on all fronts on a daily basis. So each time you visit the site, I would ask that you consider the value that you receive and have received from The Burning Platform and the community of which you are a vital part. I can't do it all alone, and I need your help and support to keep it alive. Please consider contributing an amount commensurate to the value that you receive from this site and community, or even by becoming a sustaining supporter through periodic contributions. [Burning Platform LLC - PO Box 1520 Kulpsville, PA 19443] or Paypal
-----------------------------------------------------
To donate via Stripe, click here.
-----------------------------------------------------
Use promo code ILMF2, and save up to 66% on all MyPillow purchases. (The Burning Platform benefits when you use this promo code.)
That’s one shit bio weapon. But then again, the virus wasn’t the bio weapon, was it?
Nope, it was the trigger.
The study confirms what I knew since I was 4 years old. Old people get a cold, flu, or influenza, and then die from it by catching Pneumonia. I discussed this with my Mom when Iwas a wee tyke. People in the health care industry know that a flu comes through ever few years and gets a bunch of already unhealthy people. The only thing new is the name, and yes, they did alter and release it on purpose.