Everyone understands by now that Russia is a large energy producer, but what many don’t know is that when they sit down at the dinner table at night, the entire supply chain (aside from the energy required for transportation) that gets them that dinner involves Russia and Ukraine to a frightening degree.
Our current globally integrated food supply system and mass food production cannot exist without, among other things, fertilizer.
This includes three main categories: nitrogen, potash, and phosphorus fertilizers. Potash is a potassium-rich salt fertilizer that enhances plant quality and is responsible for 20% of global fertilizer demand.
Together with Belarus, Russia has a 40% market share in global production and export of potash fertilizer. What OPEC+ is to the oil market, Belarus and Russia are to the potash market. The two monopolies in this space are Uralkali and Belaruskali, with the Belarusian Potash Company being the latter’s export arm.
With 16.5% of the nitrogen fertilizer market, Russia may not appear to be that dominant until we look at the key ingredient (ammonium nitrate) and then we realize… oh, yes it is. Why? Russia holds a whopping 66% of the global market share in the production of this chemical, and without it there’s no nitrogen fertilizer.
All this matters a great deal for those of us who like to eat, because last month the Russkies imposed an export ban on the ammonium nitrate mentioned above. Their reasoning, true or not, was to ensure an affordable supply for its own farmers. This ban comes off in April 2022.
“Fine, what’s a few weeks to wait,” you might ask.
Farming isn’t like manufacturing iPhones. In the case of iPhones, if you’re missing some component of the phone you can plonk it in a month or two later and voila, it’ll all still work. Sure, your overall opex related to carrying the product for longer than anticipated is impacted but it’ll still work. Try that in farming and you miss your planting cycle. You miss your planting cycle and you can literally go bankrupt. It’s a big deal, and it’s going to have a lasting impact on anyone who needs food.
It doesn’t stop there, though. Digging into this here is what we found. According to The North Africa Post Morocco’s OCP Group is the world top exporter of phosphates
“The Moroccan state-owned OCP group has maintained its leading position as the world first exporter of phosphates although its market share decreased from 38 pc to 34 pc between January & September 2019, but in phosphoric acid, the Group remains the biggest worldwide exporter, with a 49 pc global market share.”
What does this have to do with Russia?
Through the company Uralchem, Russia provides ammonia to Morocco, and Morocco, as it turns out, is the largest phosphate fertilizer producer in the world with 75% of phosphate reserves.
How much ammonia? More than half.
Source: Worldbank. Morocco’s Imports of Ammonia
Oh, what a tangled web this all is. And we have only just begun to scratch the surface of the repercussions.
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If we can really live off of bugs, then I will never go hungry. I can’t even go outside without getting a mouthful.
He’s right, you know. I didn’t think I was getting this place set up overnight, but even with several years full time farm work to guide me, my timeline was unrealistic. I started thinking 1 year and now I am out to 5 before full production is probable.
if you have to do it on your own without any outside input, how far can you get?
Grasshoppers will be hoping around here soon. I’m certain they they are delicious pan fried and dipped in chocolate.
We buy Ezekiel bread and it’s $6.18 a loaf at wallie world. No kids to feed so a loaf lasts about two weeks. Not big bread eaters…weaned off of it.
Mark, I wrote a long reply and decided not.
I’ve got the wheat and the grinder but am hoping to trade the wheat for bread from the Amish.
I was absofuckinglutely shocked at the price of vegetable oil. I’d opened a gallon recently so looked to replace it. Almost ten dollars for pure vegetable oil ($8.19 + tax)!
I’ve not bought vegetable oil since moving here, although I did purchase some big cans of olive oil recently.
Now, straight to the point. Vegetable oils of all kinds are likely to be used as diesel fuel, which depletes the supply of cooking oils. This is because oil derived from fracking does not contain much useful diesel.
1 Kings 17:7-16
The story of Elijah and the Widow has taken on new meaning for me.
Man cannot live by bread alone, my friend.
Word.
If you “know” already…..no worries. If you don’t know by now……is The Great Culling really such a bad thing?
“Our current globally integrated food supply system and mass food production cannot exist without, among other things, fertilizer.”
We must find the answers to this seeming dilemma by stepping outside the globally integrated food supply system. We can choose to tap into the local food supply system and there are many ways we can do this from growing your own food to buying from local farmers and from local farmers markets. We can no longer depend on global food supply system but we can rely on our own ingenuity. It is time to grow or buy our own food on a more local scale. Familiarize yourself with the produce and animal products that are grown close to your home. This shortage will hit city dwellers disproportionately because they rely on the global system more than those in the suburbs and particularly those in the country where a more farm to table economy exists.
I notice the downshitting downvoter hit your rather commonsense reply to the issue.
So, I thought I’d balance the voting (for now) and add that your name is so literary when spoken it makes me want to write a nursery rhyme. Is that your real name or a moniker?
Canada can produce all the fertilizer that North America needs. Also all the oil and gas.
Meh. Food. Who needs that?