Hat Tip to my colleague Gerry at: BOOM Finance and Economics who posts here: http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/#/ AND ALL COVID NEWS UPDATED DAILY: https://cmnnews.org/
BOOM seeks out the very best information from authoritative sources and strives for consistency in its quality and trustworthiness. In evidence of this, BOOM has developed a loyal readership which includes many of the world’s most senior economists, central bankers, fund managers and academics. We strive to always have good relationships with our readers. If you want a real edge in understanding the complex world of finance and economics, subscribe to BOOM as a Follower on LinkedIn or as a Subscriber (Free) to the BOOM Newspaper at http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/#/
THIS WEEK’S EDITORIAL
RUSSIA LOWERS INTEREST RATES: The US and UK central banks raised interest rates last week to fight CPI inflation. However, while many central banks are busily raising interest rates, Russia has lowered their key rate. Last week, the central Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark interest rate from 8% to 7.5% and explained that they expect a slowdown in annual inflation.
Russia’s current annual CPI inflation rate is 14.3%. Its Core inflation rate is currently 17.7%. However, its Month on Month CPI inflation rate has been a negative figure for the last 3 months and Producer Prices have almost stopped growing.
The Russian central bank has revised its inflation forecast lower, with annual price growth now expected to come in at around 11-13% in 2022, 5-7% in 2023, before returning to the 4% target in 2024.
It appears that the Russians have decided that the Peak of CPI inflation has passed. As explained last week, BOOM tends to agree and that the Western advanced economies have either passed the Peak or are close to it. Time will tell. Falling inflation rates would certainly be welcomed everywhere.
BOOM’s long held expectation of an inflation killing recession in the West in late 2022 was strengthened further during the week with the continued fall of GDPNow, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s model estimate for real US GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 which fell to 0.3%, down from 0.5 % on September 15. On September 1st, the expectation was for 2.6%.
A fall from 2.6% to 0.3% in just 3 weeks is a collapse in GDP growth expectations. How the US consumer responds to this new paradigm of a rapidly slowing economy will determine the arrival (or not) of the Peak of CPI inflation in the US.
US COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL — US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO SURGE HIGHER: It’s time to look again at some of the key material inputs into the US economy. The prices used are Continuous Contract Prices at the CME. It is important to note that almost all of these commodities have been in price downtrend since early this year. The following price changes have occurred over the last week.
The Lumber price fell by 9.6 %
The Gasoline price fell by 2.83 %
The Copper price fell by 4.93 %
The US Steel Index fell by 7.73 %
The Cotton price fell by 6.8 %
The West Texas Oil price fell by 7.1 %
The Natural Gas price fell 9.94 %
The Gold price fell by 1.66 %
The Silver price fell by 2.4 %
The Platinum price fell by 4.7 %
The Corn price fell by 0.07 %
The Sugar price rose by 0.46%
The Soybean price fell by 1.57 %
The Wheat price rose by 2.4 %
The US Dollar Index surged ever higher — gaining 3.13% on the week. The prices for wheat and sugar were the only commodities that registered a rise. Sugar’s rise was marginal. BOOM expects both to fall in the coming week. All other commodities on the list fell, some by large amounts, especially lumber, oil, natural gas, copper and steel.
This is (obviously) a dis-inflation of commodity prices that is well established in the United States since early 2022. And that should ultimately help in bringing lower levels of CPI inflation to the US economy especially if wages growth stays subdued.
Personal Spending data in the US for August (Month on Month) will be released on 30th September by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. If this number is a negative one, then we will have evidence of consumer reluctance. Watch for Retail Sales Month on Month to be released on 14th October from the US Census Bureau.
US Total Bank Credit peaked at $ 17.333 Trillion on August 24th. It fell to $17.286 Trillion on September 7th, rose to $17.310 Trillion on September 14th but may have stalled since late July when it was $17.251 Trillion. Any further falls from this range will be very significant indeed. The total is updated weekly by the Federal Reserve on Wednesdays.
EXCESS DEATHS RISING IN EUROPE: Excess Deaths are death numbers from all causes that are higher than the expected 5 year average. Any economy afflicted by excess death will suffer, especially if the excess death is occurring in all age groups. Excess mortality is also accompanied by increased morbidity (diseases) much of which will be of a permanent nature. The economic consequences of both are far reaching if they persist for long periods of time.
The average used here in these European statistics is the period 2016 – 2019. Current death rates are compared to the death rates that occurred in that period. Eurostat is the statistical office of the European Union, responsible for publishing high-quality Europe-wide statistics and indicators that enable comparisons between countries and regions. The numbers released by Eurostat last week were shocking.
Europe is now recording excess deaths against the 2016-2019 average on a weekly basis and has been all year but the numbers are getting worse during the summer months and winter is yet to come. We’re also seeing thousands of excess deaths every week across England and Wales. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly figures on deaths registered in England and Wales
Excess mortality in the European Union climbed to +16% in July 2022 from +7% in both June and May. This was the highest value on record so far in 2022, amounting to around 53,000 additional deaths in July this year compared with the monthly averages for 2016-2019 This was an unusually high value for this month. In 2020, the excess mortality rate was +3% in July (10 000 excess deaths) and, in 2021, it was +6% in July (21 000 excess deaths).
If this phenomenon were to continue in Europe at the current rate (without growth) for the next 12 months, then 636,000 excess deaths would occur, over half a million. That scenario is a staggering possibility and must be seriously considered. Why? Because we don’t really know what the cause is for those unexpected, excess deaths.
It is almost as if a silent plague is present and growing, steadily killing more and more people. Large scale autopsy studies are required to find out what is happening. And nobody is planning such studies. They would need to include special staining for the Spike Protein produced by the Covid Vaccines to see if the Spikes are the culprit. This is not being done either. We are flying blind and we could be doing so into a future storm of growing excess death and disability.
Case numbers for Covid have been falling in Europe throughout 2022 and so have Death numbers attributed to Covid. Deaths attributed to Covid have fallen from 6 per day per million population in February to just 0.83. New confirmed Covid cases per day have fallen from 2,466 per day in February to just 89 per day in early September.
Of course, the validity and reliability (or lack of it) of the PCR Test to diagnose Covid is still a major bone of contention. False positive results are the problem. Many of these “cases” and “deaths” attributed to the illness known as Covid may not actually be caused by the SARS CoV2 virus. Pre-existing co-morbid conditions could have been a major contributing cause in up to 94 % of the deaths as estimated by Governmental authorities in both the US and Israel.
However, to summarize crudely, European Excess Death numbers are now rising in 2022 while Covid cases and deaths are falling dramatically. Many mainstream media articles are now promoting the narrative that “mild Covid” and “Long Covid” are the cause. However, this is ludicrous. It is well known that mild respiratory illnesses do not cause death numbers to increase and neither do Post Viral syndromes.
So, if excess mortality rose on average throughout the European Union in July, what happened in the individual nations? Prepare to be shocked.
Excess mortality varied significantly from nation to nation across Europe. One nation (Latvia) recorded no excess deaths. However, excess deaths increased in July by the following amounts in all other countries.
Iceland 55.8%,
Spain 36.9%
Cyprus 32.9 %
Greece 31.2 %
Portugal 28.8 %
Malta 26.4 %
Switzerland 26%
Italy 24.9 %
Austria 17.5 %
Slovenia 16.5 %
Ireland 16.3 %
Germany 15.2 %.
Others that rose but by less than 15% were Poland 5.8 %, Estonia 12.3%, Finland 9.4%, Norway 14.8%, Denmark 10.3%, Czechia 4.4%, Slovakia 7.7%, Hungary 4.5%, Romania 2.4%, Croatia 14.6%, Netherlands 14.7%, France 14.1%, Sweden 2.7%.
The ONLY nation reporting a lower number than normal was Latvia negative – 0.5%. Iceland’s result is very concerning. Their total population is only 346,000; they are heavily vaccinated with Covid vaccines and they are particularly prone to vascular causes of death. Spike Protein attack on blood vessels is now well documented. The Covid vaccines create and release trillions of Spike Proteins into the body. Iceland could be the canary in the coalmine to watch for increased death and disease patterns as the future unfolds. Watch carefully.
PFIZER CEO ALBERT BOURLA HAS COVID FOR SECOND TIME: The highly vaccinated CEO of Pfizer, Albert Bourla, has just been reported as testing Positive for Covid for the second time. Bourla has received four doses of the COVID vaccine. He said that he has not yet taken the new bivalent booster vaccine.
URSULA VON DER LEYEN SUPPORTS DEMOCRACY? Over the last 2 weeks, Ursula Von Der Leyen, the President of the European Commission which is the most powerful body in the structure of the European Union, has made a State of the Union speech and others praising democracy. She does not seem to understand that she herself was not elected to office. She was appointed.
There is no democracy in the European Commission. It is an autocratic committee of appointed officials. The European Commission (EC) is the executive of the European Union (EU). It operates as a cabinet government, with 27 members of the Commission (informally known as “Commissioners”) headed by a President. It includes an administrative body of about 32,000 European civil servants. The Commission is divided into departments known as Directorates-General (DGs) that can be likened to departments or ministries each headed by a Director-General who is responsible to a Commissioner.
None of the office holders run for office in an election. That is rather strange form of “democracy”, yet tolerated by the people of the EU.
At present, those appointed members are plunging Europe into a very serious and possibly long lasting economic recession which they say is caused by Russia, not by their own actions. They are also preparing sweeping new emergency powers for themselves, called the Single Market Emergency Instrument (SMEI).
The details were revealed on September 19th by the European Commission (EC). The SMEI, if adopted by the EU will grant special powers to the European Commission including the power to declare a state of emergency.
“We need new tools that allow us to react fast and collectively,” said Margrethe Vestager, the European Commission’s executive vice president. This means that the unelected Commission will have the power to “build up strategic reserves of critical goods” and then have the power to “distribute these strategic reserves” in a “targeted manner” and “demand that businesses accept priority rated orders for key supplies. Businesses would be forced to comply with such demands or explain “the grave reasons justifying refusal,” the EC said.
“Forced to comply” – that sounds like some more “democracy” and “freedom”, as defined by the unelected autocrats at the European Commission. Ursula Von Der Leyen in particular does not seem to understand the meaning of the word hypocrisy.
The proposed new “Emergency Instrument” still needs to be put to the European Parliament for a vote, so several months are likely to pass before it becomes law.
In economics, things work until they don’t. Until next week. Make your own conclusions, do your own research. BOOM does not offer investment advice. SUBSCRIBE – FREE AT BOOM: http://boomfinanceandeconomics.com/#/
CLICK HERE FOR PODCASTS: OUR BRAVE NEW ECONOMIC WORLD
BANKS DON’T TAKE DEPOSITS, THEY BORROW YOUR MONEY: LOANS CREATE DEPOSITS — that is how almost all new money is created in the economy (by commercial banks making loans). https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy Watch this short 15 minutes video and learn as Professor Richard Werner brilliantly explains how global banking systems really work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnC1UlnFLyI AND Watch for 4 minutes, this Bank of England explanation: Money is essential to the workings of a modern economy, but its nature has varied substantially over time. This video describes what money is today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziTE32hiWdk
Most economists are unaware of this and even ignore the banking & finance sectors in their econometric models. EMAIL: gerry {at} boomfinanceandeconomics.com
DISCLAIMER: All content is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice, nor is it at all intended to be taken as such. The commentary and other contents simply reflect the opinion of the authors alone on the current and future status of the markets and various economies. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered by them.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell any neither securities nor investments. Do NOT ever purchase any security or investment without doing your own and sufficient research. Neither BOOM Finance and Economics.com nor any of its principals or contributors are under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein. The principals and related parties may at times have positions in the securities or investments referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities and investments while this site is live. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research.
Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
Disclosure: We accept no advertising or compensation, and have no material connection to any products, brands, topics or companies mentioned anywhere on the site.
Fair Use Notice: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of issues of economic and social significance. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
“Western advanced economies have either passed the Peak [of CPI inflation] or are close to it”
No way, José.
Half a year from now, we’re both going to laugh over that forecast…
From my point of view we are in the absolute endgame for the USD. I expected TPTB to first sacrifice smaller vassals’ currencies (JPY, AUD, CAD, GBP,…) in carefully orchestrated sequence, to create repeated runs into the “safety” of the USD – and the EUR would then be the last and final hurrah [of that approach].
But they already are sacrificing the EUR right now…
– – –
The only “good” news from the excess deaths front is that the excess numbers seem to be mostly (not completely) concentrated in the 70+ age group. That’s at least a relief from a ‘number of life years lost’ perspective.
m Yeah were at peak inflation, so hilarious. Seems like Gartman had some input on this article.
Hey calling out actual traders, is it me or is the us 10yr actually looking parabolic in next few months?
With mortgages rates exceeding 7%, I don’t think the US is going to need a lot of lumber.
Maybe I can build a wooden barn then.
“Albert Bourla has received four doses of the COVID vaccine”.
At first he said he was waiting to allow others to get the “vaccine” because hey, he’s a very altruistic guy (barf).
Now he’s had 4 doses and is taking Paxlovid? Yeah, rrrrrright….
That’s only him advertising for the fine Pfizer products.
It was Tedroes who didn’t the shot cause he is protesting Ethiopia’s lack of vaccines. True family man. <sarc
Love watching baseball games with the Moderna ad behind homeplate…. SADS
Canadian Heartland actor Robert Cormier has died (suddenly) aged 33.
cause of death unknown but we wait with the others .
Albert Bourla is not stupid enough to take his company’s “vaccine.”
The unelected EU officials serve the Oligarchs, not the people, and the officials have been doing a fine job of taking the EU into the godless NWO. The EU officials are asking Parliaments for special emergency powers and of course Parliaments should say no, but they also serve the Oligarchs not the People, so we can expect Politicians to sell Europeans and US out. TPTB want economic and social Chaos (The Four Horsemen), have worked hard to guarantee the conditions for Collapse and Chaos, and they will probably succeed this Winter. They are the rich but the few. I hope and pray their best laid plans gang a glee and they end up decorating a tree. And a Merry Christmas to all Citizens.
This is why I wrote ‘Chapter 6 – European Union’ in my book, rhs jr illustrating the fraud in British politics under that NWO deviant Edward Heath, when Britain was taken into the EU in 1973. Thank God for Nigel Farage, who by design or mistake, made the 2016 Brexit referendum to pass, pissed off the City who fought back for years, until Boris finally ‘Got It Done’ in 2019. Now they have to ‘Make It Work’ which is highly unlikely under Liz Truss & Co (a closet Remainer) who will do all they can to take Britain back in!
The outlook for Europe is getting worse by the day. The people of Europe really need to wake up and smell the coffee. US oligarch policy is and has always been to eliminate competition at any cost.
The Russian revolution was designed and financed by western oligarchs to remove the Soviet Union from competition with western powers in the world marketplace.
China’s founder of the Communist revolution Mao Zedong came to power with the help of his Alma Mater Yale University where he ran the Universities newspaper. This also resulted in China being removed as a competitor for world trade.
Germany has been the target of the oligarchs twice before, in both world wars in which the German war effort was financed in part by entities like the bank of NY and Ford motor company. The planes used in the bombing of London could never have taken off without the tetra-ethyl lead sold to Germany by Standard Oil company.
Today, we see Russia becoming a threat to western oligarchs by abandoning communism and competing with the west for the market in natural resources. Of course that means Russia must either be destroyed or brought under western control. Germany has also reasserted itself as a competitor on the world stage so a strategy that eliminated both at the same time would be optimal.
The US benefited greatly from both previous world wars, and would not hesitate for one minute to sacrifice the cities and countries of Europe in another one. From a risk reward ratio, the benefits greatly outweigh the risks.
An amazingly perceptive summary Jdog – “The 20th Century History in 2 mins!” Thank you very much. You have said enough for me to take the rest of the year off! 🙂
Stay healthy, Peter….
If You Are Over 50 Your Government Wants You Dead
In Britain, it is now official Government policy to ignore the needs of the elderly. Doctors and nurses are told to let old people die – and to withhold treatment which might save their lives. Hospital staff are told to deprive the elderly of food and water so that they die rather than take up hospital beds. Nursing home staff have even been given the right to sedate elderly patients without their knowledge…
The elderly are classified as the ‘Unwanted Generation’: a political embarrassment. Elderly individuals facing blindness from age-related macular disease are denied drugs that might have prevented their blindness. The elderly are considered expensive, useless and expendable.
https://vernoncoleman.org/articles/if-you-are-over-50-your-government-wants-you-dead
QED – Well found B_MC and thank you so much for your kind thoughts. I had a check-up the other day and I am so healthy the doctor couldn’t understand how a 78 year old thinks and acts like a 25 year-old and looks 50! He said I should make 100! I put it down to a lifetime of sailing, living most of the time on a small holding eating our own, home-grown food, and ‘playing’ at a ‘work’ in which I enjoyed every minute.
“The theory is that they don’t contribute and rarely vote and can, therefore, be disregarded.”
There are 12 million over 65s in UK today, most get out and vote, and most are conservative
as is the wisdom of years. Any government ignoring this cohort is bound to find itself dismissed in short order.
As an only child, I was fortunate to have loving and educated parents and with a father who, on his death bed, whispered that he had no money to leave me because he had forsaken money as something to be despised, a tool of the Devil. But he did leave me a legacy of wisdom enough to carry me through the stinking quagmire of life adhering to the fragile, but firm, narrow path.
https://www.onlythebible.com/Poems/Footprints-in-the-Sand-Poem.html
He taught me well: “God (using the word as you understand Him) has a perfect memory, but if we are repentant, he chooses to forgive and forget the mistakes we make. (Psalms 25:7; 130:3, 4) And he wants us to do the same for others when they are sorry for mistakes they make that hurt us. (Matthew. 6:14; Luke 17:3, 4).
We can show appreciation for the marvellous gift of our brain by using it to honour the Creator who gave it to us. Some choose to use their brain for selfish purposes; to set their own standards of right and wrong and to accumulate worldly goods, some to extremes beyond understanding; failing to understand that we can’t take anything with us. We come into the world with nothing and we go equally naked.
But because God created us, it is only reasonable to expect that his standards are better than any standards we could set for ourselves. (Romans 12:1, 2). When we live by His standards, our life is peaceful. (Isaiah 48:18) with inner serenity, being comfortable in our own skins, whilst gaining a clear purpose for living by bringing honour to our Creator and Father and make him proud of us (Proverbs 27:11;13-14)”