Guest Post by Pepe Escobar
Deal or no deal, General Winter is coming to town – ready to entertain his guest of honor Sun Tzu with so many new dishes at their dinner table.
The announcement of the Kherson Retreat may have signaled one of the gloomiest days of the Russian Federation since 1991.
Leaving the right bank of the Dnieper to set up a defense line on the left bank may spell out total military sense. General Armageddon himself, since his first day on the job, had hinted this might have been inevitable.
As it stands in the chessboard, Kherson is in the “wrong” side of the Dnieper. All residents of Kherson Oblast – 115,000 people in total – who wanted to be relocated to safer latitudes have been evacuated from the right bank.
General Armageddon knew that was inevitable for several reasons:
no mobilization after the initial SMO plans hit the dust; destruction of strategic bridges across the Dnieper – complete with a three-month methodical Ukrainian pounding of bridges, ferries, pontoons and piers; no second bridgehead to the north of Kherson or to the west (towards Odessa or Nikolaev) to conduct an offensive.
And then, the most important reason: massive weaponization coupled with NATO de facto running the war translated into enormous Western superiority in reconnaissance, communications and command and control.
In the end, the Kherson Retreat may be a relatively minor tactical loss. Yet politically, it’s an unmitigated disaster, a devastating embarrassment.
Kherson is a Russian city. Russians have lost – even if temporarily – the capital of a brand new territory attached to the Federation. Russian public opinion will have tremendous problems absorbing the news.
The list of negatives is considerable. Kiev forces secure their flank and may free up forces to go against Donbass. Weaponizing by the collective West gets a major boost. HIMARS can now potentially strike targets in Crimea.
The optics are horrendous. Russia’s image across the Global South is severely tarnished; after all, this move amounts to abandoning Russian territory – while serial Ukrainian war crimes instantly disappear from the major “narrative”.
At a minimum, the Russians a long time ago should have reinforced their major strategic advantage bridgehead on the west side of the Dnieper so that it could hold – short of a widely forecasted Kakhovka Dam flood. And yet the Russians also ignored the dam bombing threat for months. That spells out terrible planning.
Now Russian forces will have to conquer Kherson all over again. And in parallel stabilize the frontlines; draw definitive borders; and then strive to “demilitarize” Ukrainian offensives for good, either via negotiation or carpet bombing.
It’s quite revealing that an array of NATO intel types, from analysts to retired Generals, are suspicious of General Armageddon’s move: they see it as an elaborate trap, or as a French military analyst put it, “a massive deception operation”. Classic Sun Tzu. That has been duly incorporated as the official Ukrainian narrative.
So, to quote Twin Peaks, that American pop culture subversive classic, “the owls are not what they seem”. If that’s the case, General Armageddon would be looking to severely overstretch Ukrainian supply lines; seduce them into exposure; and then engage in a massive turkey shoot.
So it’s either Sun Tzu; or a deal is in the wings, coinciding with the G20 next week in Bali.
The art of the deal
Well, some sort of deal seems to have been struck between Jake Sullivan and Patrushev.
No one really knows the details, even those with access to flamboyant 5th Column informants in Kiev. But yes – the deal seems to include Kherson. Russia would keep Donbass but not advance towards Kharkov and Odessa. And NATO expansion would be definitely frozen. A minimalist deal.
That would explain why Patrushev was able to board a plane to Tehran simultaneous to the announcement of the Kherson Retreat, and take care, quite relaxed, of very important strategic partnership business with Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
The deal may have also been the inbuilt “secret” in Maria Zakharova’s announcement that “we’re ready for negotiations”.
The Russians will leave the Dnieper riverbank in a managed military retreat. That would not be possible without managed military-to-military negotiations.
These back channel negotiations have been going on for weeks. The messenger is Saudi Arabia. The US aim, in the short term, would be towards a sort of Minsk 3 accord – with Istanbul/Riyadh attached.
No one is paying the slightest attention to coke clown Zelensky. Sullivan went to Kiev to present a fait accompli – of sorts.
The Dnieper will be – in thesis – the settled and negotiated frontline.
Kiev would have to swallow a frozen line of contact in Zaporizhye, Donetsk and Lugansk – with Kiev receiving electricity from Zaporozhye, hence cease shelling its infrastructure.
The US would come up with a loan of $50 billion plus part of the confiscated – i.e. stolen – Russian assets to “rebuild” Ukraine. Kiev would receive modern air defense systems.
There’s no doubt Moscow will not go along with any of these provisions.
Note that all this coincides with the outcome of the US elections – where the Dems did not exactly lose.
Meanwhile Russia is accumulating more and more gains in the battle for Bakhmut.
There are no illusions whatsoever in Moscow that this crypto-Minsk 3 would be respected by the “non-agreement capable” Empire.
Jake Sullivan is a 45-year-old lawyer with zero strategic background and “experience” amounting to campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Patrushev can eat him for breakfast, lunch, dinner and late night snack – and vaguely “agree” to anything.
So why are the Americans desperate to offer a deal? Because they may be sensing the next Russian move with the arrival of General Winter should be capable of conclusively winning the war on Moscow’s terms. That would include slamming the Polish border shut via a long arrow move from Belarus downwards. With weaponizing supply lines cut, Kiev’s fate is sealed.
Deal or no deal, General Winter is coming to town – ready to entertain his guest of honor Sun Tzu with so many new dishes at their dinner table.
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If Russia still pussyfoots around all winter than something is up.
I don’t expect that to happen, more likely they are going to go balls to the wall for an overpowering win.
It seems to me that the Russians want to lose. If they cannot take Kharkov, a city that is only a stones throw from Russian border, then they might as well pack it in and become just another US colony.
I’m watching this on my front porch while sipping coffee and waiting for a big buck to stroll by.
Firearms season is open.
Be still, Rob. Odin is still rocking the universe.
WHY would Russia want to lose?? What benefit would that be to Russia in general, and to Putin specifically?
Please go to a quiet place in the woods and think clearly, deeply, and logically about what you said, …. and then come back and say, “Stucky, that was the dumbest fucken thing I ever said here on TBP.”
I am gracious and magnanimous and will forgive you. But, I’m not sure Odin will.
Obviously RiNS has not heard of the Napoleonic war in Russia. When the genius found nothing in front of him, he pushed forward, all the way to Moscow which was empty and then Lord Winter (not to be confused with Lord de Winter of The Three Musketeers’ fame) arrived and the genius started to run West, his tail between the legs, once again protected by the Polish Uhlan, his personal guard.
Apparently Pepe has never read War and Peace.
“The strongest of all warriors are these two — Time and Patience.”
― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
“When General Surovikin took command… it was decided that Russia was going to wait for a decisive operation to end the war. In other words, no more simply defending southern Ukraine and the territory we’ve annexed, no more expectations of negotiations with anyone– those are over– we have to end the war.
How do you end the war? Well, you launch operations that are so devastating in their destructiveness that the enemy cannot resist them. However, if you are going to do that you’re going to have to scale back current activities. (like Kherson) In other words, you have to make changes on the ground, shuffle troops, change resource commitments because you are now building up for forces that are not yet in southern Ukraine … but are being prepared with this mobilization of 300,000 troops integrated into this new force for future operations… which will come this winter once the ground freezes…. So, I would regard (the withdrawal) as an operational decision with short-term benefit in support of the long-term strategy of building this enormous striking power…The Russians no longer place any confidence in negotiations. I don’t think we could say anything to the Russians at this point that would persuade them to stop.” (“EVERYTHING changes in 4 weeks: Interview with Colonel Douglas MacGregor”, youtube; Start at 50 seconds)
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-stage-is-set-for-us-combat-troops-in-ukraine/
Great video. The entire video began with a clear, concise analysis of the situation concerning Taiwan as well. MacGregor is terrific, IMO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rei9F9oeM-Y&t=1716s
I think someone should throw a noose at Zelensky and the whole shebang will shut down.
What a FusterCluck.
He’s only alive because he serves the Kingdom of Davos. If Yuval Harari deems him a useless eater, he’s toast, unless he’s valued enough to have been given a golden parachute, like Jeffrey Epstein, and shipped off to a comfy retirement.
Apparently you haven’t been following very closely. The exit strategy is set, only thing , Switzerland declared itself no longer a neutral country by joining in sanctions against Russia. He can run…
Apparently, Deep Shekels tool , Sammy Bankman-Fried wasn’t important enough to qualify for a
Swiss bunker.
The Automatic Earth posted another “Dr. D.” comment on FTX, lists the players and suggests why it happened….
Okay, given this, who blew the whistle on them? This scam was going perfectly: who blew it? The GOP’s like-kind fund? But after the election, not before? Powell? Was it really organic ponzi and they just don’t care, didn’t even try to cover it? Who?
And it’s not the “Money”. They can print the money. You know what they can’t print? ETH. BTC. So when you’re an exchange and scalp coins as they fly across your books, and when you vanish, where’s the money, but more importantly, WHERE ARE THE COINS?
Why? Because you need ACTUAL coins to manipulate the market. You can get a run started, it’ll blow the stops and start a cascade collapse, but to get it started, you have to have an ACTUAL ante of ACTUAL product. That’s the cost of manipulation. And the blow up of FTX means someone, these same insiders who wish to halt and/or destroy all crypto as a concept, have the nuclear pre-charge somewhere to make a run on the markets.
If there is money to be stolen, a bankman is there.
The genius of the bankman is to live off people; not off land, nor off the production of commodities from raw material, but off people. Let other people till the soil; the bankman , if he can, will live off the tiller. Let other people toil at trades and manufacture; the bankman will exploit the fruits of their work. That is his peculiar genius. If this genius be described as parasitic, the term would seem to be justified by a certain fitness.
Henry Ford
(The International Bankman , November 13, 1920)
In this case it is more than just crypto coins. They had futures and derivatives, options, etf’s of all the above, the whole show. I predict we will find there was hypothecation and rehypothecation of coins just like in the physical gold markets.
FTX- Founders: Sam Bankman-Fried, Gary Wang
I read that the flight is offering Fried Wangs for lunch, want one?
It’s kosher.
This just in…Ukraine laundering BILLIONS in US tax dollars through FTX (crypto) for the Democrat Party.
Only Soreass has given more to the Dems this cycle than this shithead. His folks are big time Prog shitheads involved with Democrat finance. So…..
Either Pepe is playing Devil’s Advocate, or he has gone Full Retard.
Does he actually think the Russians, especially Putin, gives a flying fuck about “optics”? Optics is a Western obsession. Actually winning wars is a Russian obsession.
So, Jake brokered a deal? Bwahahahahaha!!! I guess we should just ignore the fact that Putin has unequivocally stated that America is incapable of making deals, and keeping them. I guess we should just believe the Russians are too goddamned stupid to recall that there already was a deal, Minsk II … which was broken before the ink dried on the paper. I guess we should believe the Russkies are so beaten down, so defeated, that they will cream their pants; “Oh, goody!! Let’s just believe America is agreement capable …. this time!” I guess we are to believe that Putin doesn’t give a flying fuck that both the Piano Dick Player and Dementia Joe have stated that their goal is to have Putin removed from office by any means possible. I guess we should just ignore the fact that the 300,000 troop mobilization is almost completed, and that Putin said Russia has hardly even done anything yet (but, they WILL.)
I guess the Pepe Military Doctrine is as follows;
—1. Once a country loses even one battle … that country will lose the war!!!
—2. Never ever ever retreat, even if it saves thousands of lives, is temporary, and is the militarily strategically sound decision.
—3. Once you give up some land, you will never ever be able to take it back.
==========
I could go on and on exposing his utterly ignorant comments, but I don’t have the time or energy. Pepe exposed himself … and he has no balls.
Amazing how much respect can be lost by writing just one dumbfuk stoopid-as-shit article.
fPE
Pepe already toned it down, from here: https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/5514
If you try to be on the reporting front edge of things, you will inevitably f*ck up your assessments at times.
Pepe at least has been able to quickly adjust to reality.
I’m shocked you still believe in the war. They needed a new season to distract the sheeps after the scamdemic ran it’s course.
“A political disaster”
Shit. Is there any other kind?
Everything is just pure speculation. Unless you are there in the room with Putin, his Generals etc, all we can do is speculate. Some have a military background so their educated guess may be better than others but it’s still speculation.
Unless you are there in the room with Putin, his Generals etc, all we can do is speculate.
Being in the room with Putin would still not suffice. You’d have to be in his head.
I keep remembering that Vladimir Putin is a chess master.
re-taking Kherson should be much simpler without being handicapped by civilian presence.
LOL for all those constantly slobbering over Putin’s tiny cock…..if he is so awesome why can’t he beat the Jew led weak Americans and filthy Jew Led Uks? Jews are beating the Russians……Remember you Nazi loving asshats…..the Russians declared the Kherson Oblast sovereign Russian territory……and they can’t defend it. How come the Jews always win?
You think Russia is fighting them. Sad.
I think Russia is doing the best they can…they were always a paper tiger with Nukes that might or might not work. They are getting destroyed. I don’t support the Uks they were the most corrupt folks I have ever met but the second most corrupt are the DeepState folks in DC…….hundreds of billions being stolen in this “effort” and despite more than half the arms being sold elsewhere the Russias are getting crushed. So where are all the Putin fanboys……volunteering to fight for Vlad in the jihad against the jew filth? I would think this would be a wonderful opportunity for those keyboard warriors who praise Hitler and Putin and hate the jews here on TBP to step up and go volunteer……..I am surprised there is anybody left to make comments. OH…..just a bunch of do nothing cowards that fold like a cheap suit when given an actual opportunity to make a difference…..Gosh you could go over there and commit all the war crimes you want and Vlad would pin a medal on you! Might be a little tough to come back to America…..but you hate Jew owned America anyways right? So what are you waiting for……fly to Moskva and sign up!
Paper tiger your ass, America is the paper tiger and it’s influence on the world is waning daily. Wake up, the time is short for our beloved country and waving your patriotic flag isn’t going to save it. We are being led to the trash heap of Imperial super powers by our own Government and only an American up rising against this corrupt Government is going to save it. We are on the wrong side of history and we are out of time. I don’t do heroes, that’s a naïve fools game. There are no heroes, there are only people trying to survive in a cruel world that takes no sides and respects no boarders. Survival depends on you and me. We had better focus our attention right here on this soil if we are to survive this cruel world and it’s intentions.
Exactly my point……at least you are not visibly gargling Putin’s cum, good for you. But what are you doing to “save America”…..nothing of course besides voting harder if you do even that. We had a great idea with a representative republic which is now long gone (since 1860 if not before). Survival is the only thing that matters…..it does annoy me, the sanctimonious jew hatred (not completely undeserved) and love for people that would happily enslave us or use us for fertilizer. We need a revolution and a complete reset of the contract between the government and the people.
for god’s sake you have to be a fucking idiot or a collaborator to not hate the khazarian jews. yes my hatred is sanctimonious. but at the end of the day you are a full featured fucktard.
What are you on about, retard ? Wars are not won or lost, neither narratives spun or unspun because your butthurt is cronic…try again, glowie.
Were you born stupid or did you have to teach yourself? Try to make a cogent point if you want to talk with the adults.
Your hemorrhoids must be hanging down to your knees by now…what’s a pattern, bruh ha ha ha
Now tell us about those hypersonic missiles…..probably just another paper tiger.
How butt-hurt exactly are you?
Why butt-hurt? What makes you think I am butt-hurt? I could give a shit about Uks or Russia or even what was America at this point…..I do find you jew hating keyboard warriors to be the type of folks that I have seen my entire life….big talkers who love to get in a circle jerk with like minded folks and tell each other how smart they are…….while not lifting a finger to do anything about the causes they claim to care about……pathetic.
Well…..enjoy slobbering the supposedly huge Jew cock then…..
Seems to me that with the EU about to freeze it’s ass off, the Ukulele’s about to do the same and support for the war diminishing the district of Columbia may have some outside influence and incentive to bring this thing to an end. Russia will have a clear advantage this winter and DC has flinched. This is about to get wrapped up, NATO will concede to Russian demands, privately and with no fan fair. It’s the beginning of the end of this thing. It was always going to end this way, preconceived before it ever got started. The game of thrones doesn’t always make sense to the laymen.
Have Rubles? Buy Diesel. Self-service shipping included.
A glowie’s job it to counter all truth, in favor of Deep Shekels narrative, as if somehow the demon’s word magic can create a new reality, based on the lie, here on earth. It just how Deep Shekels rolls.
Napolitano– “Let me get this straight: Are you of the belief, …that Jake Sullivan…threatened the Russians that if they crossed these red lines, they would meet with US military resistance in Ukraine?”
MacGregor– I think that implication was made. That is the impression I am getting and I don’t think we should be surprised about that because Ukraine’s position is deteriorating very rapidly… And we are very concerned about a Ukrainian collapse. Some estimates indicate that the entire economy and social structure will collapse within 60 days. Some say they are going to general mobilization in Ukraine right now, which may include women, because their manpower base is exhausted. And, remember, people continue to leave Ukraine as much as possible because nobody wants to be stuck in a country that shortly will have no power, no electricity, and where there will be trouble getting water, and trouble getting food. The situation in Ukraine is dire.”
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/the-stage-is-set-for-us-combat-troops-in-ukraine/
I like MacGregor but he has so far been proved completely wrong…..starting to remind me of Baghdad BOB…..”there are no tanks in Baghdad” as tanks go rumbling by in the background. If the Russians were winning how come they keep retreating?
your question is profoundly retarded. too bad you were never prescribed valium. you have the lobotomy.
My little town just asked for help to settle Ukrainian refugees here. Next, the Prog fuques in the school system will want translators and other expensive BS.
of course, they will….the teachers union will demand more teachers, translators, teacher aides, and more funding for the now dual language curriculum……..and did you run for the school board? No….then don’t complain. Lots of pissed off parents ran for school board and won this cycle…. because they didn’t like CRT and Tranny theory being taught……I guess they didn’t get the memo that voting harder doesn’t have any impact.
as one retarded commentator here failed to grasp, retreat proves nothing until the war is over. the west has no deal and it wouldn’t matter if it had. it is pouring troops toward kaliningrad and is pouring american troops into ukraine. the war isn’t over by a long shot. this existential fight beetween jewcunts and humanity is still raging – the first act has ended; we are in the intermission.