Guest Post by Jim Rickards
A lot of people seem to have forgotten about the war in Ukraine. That’s a mistake.
Russia is slowly but steadily defeating Ukraine, which is becoming increasingly obvious to everyone except the most anti-Russian diehards.
That’s leading to desperation in elite Western circles determined to stop Russia one way or the other. In their minds, they simply can’t let Putin win. They think that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he’ll next move on to the Baltic states, Poland and elsewhere.
You know the West is getting desperate based on recent threats by France’s Emmanuel Macron to send troops to Ukraine.
The vice president of the Russia Duma, Pyotr Tolstoy (descendant of the great Russian writer Leo Tolstoy), warned that French troops would be priority targets for Russian forces if they entered Ukraine.
Even though France would send troops independent of NATO, that puts us on a very dangerous path that ultimately leads to direct conflict between NATO and Russia. And that path ends in nuclear war ultimately.
Tolstoy added that it would take “just two minutes to nuke Paris.” It’s not hard to envision how quickly things could escalate if France decided to send troops to Ukraine.
More Escalation
Meanwhile, NATO is preparing to send F-16s to Ukraine. Airfields in Ukraine are highly vulnerable to Russian attack, especially since Ukraine’s air defenses are heavily depleted at this point and the Russian air force is becoming increasingly active in Ukraine.
But if NATO allows the F-16s to be based on its own airbases, Putin has warned that these airfields would become a “legitimate target” if strikes against Russian forces were launched from them.
By the way, Russia has hypersonic missiles that NATO has no practical ability to shoot down, so these attacks would likely be successful. Of course, NATO would have to retaliate in kind. You can imagine where all this could lead.
We’re already well along the escalation ladder. And the higher you go, the more face you stand to lose if you back down. I warned about that from the outset of the war.
But the entire notion that Russia poses some existential threat to NATO or Europe is absurd.
Putin Has Nothing to Gain and Everything to Lose
First off, the theory that Putin will invade other countries if he wins in Ukraine is nonsense. The Russian army lacks the men and materiel to occupy Ukraine while simultaneously invading other countries.
This isn’t the Soviet Union with its massive tank armies poised to roll over Western Europe. And Soviet communism is long dead, so there’s no ideological basis for Russia to invade Europe. These days Russia is a conservative, Orthodox Christian nation.
But more importantly, Putin has absolutely no incentive to invade any of these nations, which are NATO members. What do they have that he wants?
All it would do is trigger Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all, inviting a massive NATO response. At that point, you’re on the fast track to nuclear war.
Putin is fully aware of that.
Fearmongers like to point to what Putin once said in a speech: “Whoever doesn’t miss the Soviet Union doesn’t have a heart.”
They take that as proof that he wants to recreate the Soviet Union. But they conveniently omit what he said next:
“Whoever wants it back doesn’t have a brain.”
Whatever you think of Putin, he definitely has a brain. He has no intention to restore the Soviet Union.
It’s Not Just About Intentions
But like any great power, Russia has interests, and Ukraine has always been a vital strategic interest to Russia.
And Russia is not going to tolerate Ukraine joining a NATO alliance that’s hostile to Russia. Critics say Ukraine is a free and independent nation that can join NATO if it wants. Russia has no say in the matter, even though Ukraine borders Russia.
Well, I guess they never heard of the Monroe Doctrine. The U.S. basically declared the entire Western hemisphere its own domain. But a great power like Russia can’t have a say in its own backyard?
Critics also say that the idea of NATO invading Russia is ridiculous. That’s just Russian paranoia. And that’s true, NATO isn’t going to actually invade Russia. But it’s not just intentions that count in the world of geopolitics. It’s also capabilities.
As Bismarck once noted: “What matters in politics is capabilities, not intentions. Intentions change, capabilities remain.”
Given Russia’s long history of being invaded, it’s not hard to imagine why it might seem a bit paranoid of exterior threats.
If you look at a map, parts of Ukraine are actually east of Moscow.
Source: The Economist
Will the U.S. Keep the War Going?
Of course, Ukraine can’t continue fighting without U.S. assistance. The Biden White House wants $60 billion of new money to give to Ukraine to fight the war. This is on top of several hundred billion already provided.
This was proposed last summer but has stalled in the Senate and House of Representatives ever since. The House passed a separate bill to aid Israel last fall, but the Senate refused to take it up because they want to tie that aid to money for Ukraine.
The Senate passed a bill that would provide aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan in one package combined with some money for phony border security.
That bill was so unpopular it could not even make it out of the Senate. Then the House insisted on passing regular appropriations before considering Ukraine.
That process was completed on March 23, but now Congress is on a two-week Easter recess so nothing further will happen until mid-April. No one has even answered the most important question, which is what would Ukraine do with the money.
They can’t buy badly needed 155mm artillery shells because the Western arsenals are bare and factories are not geared to make more than a handful. It will take years to expand that manufacturing capacity.
You can walk into a store with a wallet full of $100 bills, but if the shelves are empty, it doesn’t do you any good. The products simply aren’t there.
Meanwhile, wonder weapons from the West such as tanks, cruise missiles, armored personnel carriers, HIMARS precision-guided artillery and anti-missile batteries have all been destroyed, disabled or shot down by Russia.
The war in Ukraine hasn’t been good advertising for Western weapons.
Fallout
To repeat what I said earlier, Ukraine is losing the war badly. Russia is advancing on the southern and eastern fronts in Ukraine.
Still, the pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson to do something remains. The Republican warmongers in the Senate like Lindsey Graham and Joni Ernst won’t let up. Many Republicans in the House such as Chip Roy and Marjorie Taylor Greene are opposed to Johnson on this.
Incredibly, Johnson may respond to the pressure with a solution worse than an outright appropriation. He may get behind efforts to steal $300 billion in Russian central bank assets held in the form of U.S. Treasury securities.
That would destroy confidence in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. rule of law. Russia would quickly recover the loss by seizing $300 billion or more of Western assets still in Russia. No one in Congress seems to understand any of this.
If they follow through, the economic fallout would be bad enough. But if this war doesn’t stop soon, we could ultimately be looking at nuclear fallout.
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So’s America:
Goddamned fuckin’ moron thug low-watt untrained pigs.
SWAT teams can’t even read your address right, then shoot your dog.
Sorry, just hadda put this somewhere. It looks like the kinda thing Admin Quinn would notice and post later in the day. Here ya go. The horror, the horror. That poor girl saved to death by the dumb fucking undertrained, overpaid, scumbag 5-0. Apologies to every good sheriff or cop who can’t believe his eyes on this one.
+ 1 for “saved to death”.
‘The Thin Blue Line” Is a bunch of murderous STASI marionettes.
If they are ordered to come to arrest you from their evil overlords, you will be shown
ZERO constitutional protections or mercy, your dog either. KTA if they come for you.
Best to accept the fact that PIGS are not your friend in merca.
They serve the Walton family and the democrat party only.
Police are to protect the government not the people. They want us to think otherwise because it makes their job easier.
The other cop was yelling at the cop to stop shooting,what a cluster fuck and sad ending!
My friends youngest kids can do a chalk outline around me body if needed,let us just defend ourselves and end this insanity!
Commiefornia, Cuntifornia, Crapipornia, Californication, Mexifornia, Chinafornia it’s still The Toilet State.
Something I learned living in Brazil.
“Never ask the police for help. Solve the problem and don’t let them film you.”
this is jewish amerika
In two years Russia has not defeated Ukraine. Not exactly blitzkrieg.
Russia won’t be invading anyone else, but the west could force Russia into using nukes to defend itself
In two years has demilitarized NATO land forces by about 60%, without triggering Article 5.
That’s pretty impressive.
FUCKING AYE!
Pretending that was the case
to what purpose?
Russia doesn’t want the insurgency in Ukraine. They are just focused on liberation of Russia. Let the west pick up the mess.
You’re an idiot if you think their speed is not precisely calculated.
The fact that YOUR panties are in a twist tells me it’s working perfectly!
HAHAHAHAH!
The Deep State shill chimes in!
Ya shur showeded us, Langley!
yay.
This posting of yours here must be so humiliating.
LOLOLLL!
Drunk again, are we? I’m just admiring the Russian Strategy. You’re the guy watching the chess game and wondering where the checkers are.
This is NOT about land…………this is about KILLING the dem-ukie-nazi military.
How many millions of the whitest men of Ukraine and Russia have to die for that to ever happen?
Instead of just couping them like they half-assed attempted 2 years ago.
Russia could have blitzkerieged Ukrain, but they did something much more intelligent and wise. I was an infantry squad leader. I know tactics. I am always amazed at great strategy. I still think the ultimate goal on the side of Russia and Jewkraine was to kill Christians.
War is a chaotic event (in the mathematical sense). Well reasoned outcomes do not always prevail in war and “common knowledge” is often wrong in the end. I have no idea who will win this thing and I see no way to accurately predict the ultimate outcome. I just pray we are not all losers.
No one has forgotten the war In Ukraine. It is that US citizens have no input as to what happens in Ukraine. Our so-called leaders do as they please in regard to Ukraine, Covid, the economy, the strategic gas reserve, etc etc. It does not matter what we think to them. Like Hillary Clinton said, I am paraphrasing here, to demo/liberal voters: Get over yourselves and vote Biden. Translated shut up and vote demo. Demo and RINO politicians do not want to hear you or see you just do as they say because they know they are smarter than you. That is where we are at in regard to politics/policy in this country.
True enough, Tlate. What seems to escape “voters” is the obvious fact that a vote for RINOs is a vote for DEMOs, and vice versa.
Criminal Congress is just a distraction to keep the populace occupied with the next most important election evah, while Deep Shekels destabilizes the world. They have no authority and only operate on orders.
Article says, “these days, Russia is a conservative, Christian Orthodox nation.”
Which is EXACTLY why the Woke West has been working its proxy war against them for at least 10 years. It aims to destroy all decent people and nations on its unending Rainbow Conquest of the world. If you and your country are not LGBTQ+, then you are in their gunsights, buddy. Satan has and agenda to fulfill, and the Woke West is his tool.
The REAL worry for this world is the Woke West, not Russia. Let’s understand who the real enemies are.
The west is also after the $50 trillion in untapped natural resources that Russia has in that vast, vast country.
Just hope that Putin knows I’m not his enemy even though I live in Washington State. Me and a whole lot of others who loathe Washington D.C. and our governor, Senators, Congressmen, Gates, Bezos, Seattle, and more.
Zelensky just purchased a $20 million mansion in England. He has already bought new tits for his wife and now has his exit strategy planned.
new tits? yeah?
Is his wife a Tranny like Macron’s? Since Jewlinsky is a Fag.
Not for ME, it ain’t !
So…after we clear out some space here on planet Earth, can we send our niggers and aliens to live there? That would be GREAT!
Will you go, too. Please.
“They think that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he’ll next move on to the Baltic states, Poland and elsewhere.”
They don’t believe that, and it is not true, as this article points out. It is an excuse to keep the forever wars warring forever.
Know what is endlessly heard?
blah blah blah blah blah money laundering blah blah blah blah blah billions to secure others borders, blah blah blah welcome illegal freeloader newcomers who have a right to your property and can carry guns even tho we don’t know who you are nor care, blah blah blah perverting your children blah blah blah. Too much crap to write it all down.
Welcome to the nwo.
Your new progressive rights in the new world pervs created.
You let it happen.
Enjoy.
“You let it happen.” Just as “you let the rain fall and the tide turn”, right?
Yeah…Wearing that oufit let you get raped…..
Same as 2014. PTB won’t go to war against Russia. They will push the Ukrainians up to the line then abandon them on the battlefield. The object is to weaken Russia by making them fight a war. If it doesn’t work they will try something else. Meanwhile Ukrainians and “volunteers” will die.
The might use Romanians and Moldovans to fight Russia when it takes Transistria. Hopefully they won’t be stupid enough to fall for that, though, especially since Russia will have taken Odessa by then.
Russia hasn’t been supporting anyone lately. They’ve been losing allies, like not supporting Armenia and having them drop out of their alliance. Transdniestra is fucked.
Whatever you think should happen, it’s clinically retarded to talk about Odessa while Kherson is sitting there untouched.
emphasis mine
“Meanwhile, wonder weapons from the West such as tanks, cruise missiles, armored personnel carriers, HIMARS precision-guided artillery and anti-missile batteries have all been destroyed, disabled or shot down by Russia.”
This is flatly false. You can find evidence of all of them being used on a regular basis. What proportion have been destroyed, no one knows. But they’re still being used.
The Western World is run Mostly by Feminized Cunt Beta Males. Until these Pussified Fucks are Bent over & Sodomized with a Dry Splintered Broomstick until they Choke on it Nothing will change – They All Must Be Tortured to Death! Once you bring Terror to these Mostly Closeted Douchebags – Then you will see some change. Demonic Fucks – Every Last One of Them. Exterminate them with Extreme Prejudice!
what lunatic ever thought ukraine could EVER beat Russia ?
?c=original
The Thinker . . . of puddin’ and pie to ease the grinding torture of that loss in 1812 by the fucking French.
If the bolshevik Communist fat face reads this she can take an iodine supplement–because PhatPhace is one of the signs of deficiency
Resting Bitch Face.
Phyiognomy is real.
Nothing uglier than a fat-ass kike cunt !
stupid goyim
you think winning matters
They obviously want that Super Bowl ring he stole back. Poop’n, gibs that ring back and all will be forgiven.
Well written Post…
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