2019’s Five Most Mispriced Tail Events

Via Global Macro Monitor,

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2019-01-06_9-22-11.jpg?itok=szkiSU4Z

1. Trump Leaves Office By Year-End

There is only one thing Trump likes more than power – money.  As his legal troubles grow exponentially in 2019, the president has an epiphany that he could lose all his wealth.  He cuts a Spiro Agnew-like deal and resigns from office in return for leniency.   The markets rally into the announcement but Trump doesn’t go easy and dog whistles to his base as he hits the exit.  The U.S. experiences a period of political and social instability.   Stocks sell-off hard.

Long American water cannons

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Top 10 Predictions for 2019, A Year That Will Make 2018 Look Sane

Guest Post by Kurt Schlichter

Top 10 Predictions for 2019, A Year That Will Make 2018 Look Sane

There’s no hack cliché like the New Year’s prediction column cliché, so with that in mind, here’s my Top 10 Predictions for 2019 column, and my general prediction is that 2019 will be even crazier than 2018!

10.     Out of Afghanistan Too: Yeah, our 17-year war will largely end as we bring most of the boys back home. As always, Trump will make his opponents go nuts. What will be a big part of the fun is watching the liberal media that slobbered over Obama’s tragic, premature Iraq pullout posing as hawks over this long-overdue strategic rethink. What you won’t see is an alternative articulation of objective goals or a strategy to achieve them. You’ll never see the NeoHawks explain “Here’s exactly what we intend to do and here are the additional resources we need to do it.” Instead, you’ll get another tired embrace of the useless status quo and fury that Trump is finally rejecting it.

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2019 Predictions

Guest Post by The Zman

Most of the predictions for the coming year have something about Trump and his agenda, as he faces a divided Congress. What will be revealed is the Congress is not so divided after all, as both parties will boldly lock shields to thwart the Trump agenda. The House will spend the year issuing subpoenas and holding hearings so their more clownish elements can perform for the cameras. The Senate will go on strike, doing nothing other than quietly pushing through Trump’s appointments to the Federal bench.

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