Goldilocks Vehicles

Guest Post by Eric Peters

An interesting thing about electric vehicles is that they are also Goldilocks Vehicles – in that they need conditions to be just right in order for them to work right.

Or at least, as well as they are able.

If it’s cold out – and especially if it is very cold – EVs shed range faster than any “gas hog” drains its tank. Even when the EV is parked – if it is left unplugged. In the very cold, it is not unusual to lose 10-20 miles of range overnight that way – just from sitting in the cold.

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Waiting For ‘Buyers To Come’: Unsold Electric Vehicles Piling Up In Car Dealerships, Says Report

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The number of unsold electric vehicles at dealers in the second quarter tripled compared to the past year, signaling a weakened demand for the segment, said a recent report by leading auto-dealer data company Cox Automotive.

Tesla Model Y vehicles sit on the lot for sale at a Tesla car dealership in Austin, Texas, on May 31, 2023. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

 

In second quarter 2023, the average inventory for electric vehicles (EVs) topped more than 92,000 units on the ground at dealer lots, according to the 2023 Cox Automotive Mid-Year Review presentation. This is up 342 percent compared to second quarter 2022. During this period, the new “EV days’ supply,” which refers to the average number of days a warehouse holds inventory before selling it, rose 166 percent, to 92 days from 38.5 days. While the pace of EV sales is up, it is “not rising as fast as inventory builds,” said Jonathan Gregory, senior manager, Economic and Industry Insights.

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Reality – Or Starvation?

Guest Post by Karl Denninger

Let’s cut the crap.

NHTSA has put forward an impossible fuel economy standard.

The “new/old rules” require 49mpg across the entire fleet of vehicles sold by a maker by 2026, and are thermodynamically impossible with internal combustion engines if you sell anything larger than a subcompact and that is barely achievable with a hybrid, two or three-cylinder engine.

Hybrids, I remind you, have consumable battery packs which are expensive to replace and more expensive to buy in the first place.

It is not possible to obtain 49mpg in a light (e.g. 1/2 ton) truck; aerodynamics prohibit it.

This means the only possible way to achieve that “fleet” number is to actually sell a very large number of EVs which are rated at roughly double that number in order to raise the corporate averages.

It cannot be done otherwise; thermodynamics are not the 10 suggestions.

EVs, however, are not green.  A half million pounds of earth has to be dug up for just one battery pack which must be moved for processing in huge (diesel-powered) trucks, crushed and then wildly-toxic chemicals used to extract the ores — specifically lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and others.  None of this occurs with a traditional vehicle.  The packs are not economically recyclable and requiring them to be will wildly escalate their costs further.  Charging said vehicle is approximately equal to running your electric clothes dryer all night long, and the cost of power when you’re not at home is roughly double to triple when you use a “supercharger” or similar; this makes the cost on a per-mile basis higher than that of a gas car in many cases.

We do not have the electrical capacity nor is there any way to generate it using so-called “green” methods to charge these vehicles if a material percentage of the fleet converts.  Without power you own a $50,000 brick and being “out” means not going anywhere.  What’s worse is that the existing fueling stations are used by a vehicle for about 5 minutes; conservatively it requires 30 minutes to get usable range from an EV, so contemplate where you’re going to get six times the land you have for each fuel station nowplus you will need to place them twice as close together as the average EV range is half or less that of a gasoline vehicle.

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The Inevitable Arrives

Guest Post by Eric Peters

The inevitable usually happens – and so it has come to pass (literally) in the state of Washington, where a bill has just been passed that outlaws the sale of non-electric new cars beginning with the 2030 model year. This is five years sooner than the similar ban that was passed in California back in 2020 that bans the sale of other-than-electric new cars beginning in 2035.

It will result – inevitably – in several things.

The first thing being the ramped-up disappearing of other-than-electric cars years before 2030. Whatever’s still available now is likely to be all that’s available, going forward – because it takes several years to bring a new car design from the blackboard (well, computer screen) to the production line. Why expend the effort – and the money – designing a new-design non-electric car for the 2027 model year, say, that you know ahead of time you’ll only be permitted to sell for three years in at least one major non-market?

To be followed shortly thereafter by the biggest non-market in the country, i.e., the People’s Republic of California?

Each year that passes brings us one year closer to the dates after which making other-than-electric cars amounts to the same as keeping a popular Chinese buffet stocked with fresh hot food that no one’s allowed to buy, as during the forced closing of sit-down restaurants during the “pandemic.”

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