Dear President Trump: About that wall ….

Three weeks for CONgress and Trump to avoid another shutdown.

Let’s support Trump … and warn him also.  Will it work?  Who knows? But, it’s worth trying.  It doesn’t take a lot of time to write a short letter.

Mine is below.  Add yours!

I will reformat the responses in a nice manner, and then send it to the White House.  I will share any response they send.

I will only send responses in favor of a physical barrier.  I reserve the right to slightly edit responses for spelling, grammar, profanities … In other words, just be professional.

I will wait until Wednesday in order to give as many people as possible a chance to submit their request.

Let’s git ‘er done!!!

Continue reading “Dear President Trump: About that wall ….”

The Fed Sends A Frightening Letter To JPMorgan, Corporate Media Yawns

Submitted by Pam Martens and Russ Martens via WallStreetOnParade.com,

Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a 19-page letter that it and the FDIC had issued to Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on April 12 as a result of its failure to present a credible plan for winding itself down if the bank failed. The letter carried frightening passages and large blocks of redacted material in critical areas, instilling in any careful reader a sense of panic about the U.S. financial system.

A rational observer of Wall Street’s serial hubris might have expected some key segments of this letter to make it into the business press. A mere eight years ago the United States experienced a complete meltdown of its financial system, leading to the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. President Obama and regulators have been assuring us over these intervening eight years that things are under control as a result of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. But according to the letter the Fed and FDIC issued on April 12 to JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank with over $2 trillion in assets and $51 trillion in notional amounts of derivatives, things are decidedly not under control.

Continue reading “The Fed Sends A Frightening Letter To JPMorgan, Corporate Media Yawns”

City Folk vs. Country Folk

I didn’t take any time to verify whether or not this letter is genuine, or not. I’m just assuming it is.  That’s cuz I want to believe it’s the real thing ….. cuz it really has a ring of truth to it, and it’s funny as shit.

 

Titled “Farm Kid Writes Home After Joining Marines

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Dear Ma and Pa:

I am well. Hope you are. Tell Brother Walt and Brother Elmer the Marine Corps beats working for old man Minch by a mile. Tell them to join up quick before all of the places are filled.

I was restless at first because you get to stay in bed till nearly 6 a.m. But I am getting so I like to sleep late. Tell Walt and Elmer all you do before breakfast is smooth your cot, and shine some things. No hogs to slop, feed to pitch, mash to mix, wood to split, fire to lay. Practically nothing.

Men got to shave but it is not so bad, there’s warm water. Breakfast is strong on trimmings like fruit juice, cereal, eggs, bacon, etc., but kind of weak on chops, potatoes, ham, steak, fried eggplant, pie and other regular food, but tell Walt and Elmer you can always sit by the two city boys that live on coffee. Their food, plus yours, holds you until noon when you get fed again. It’s no wonder these city boys can’t walk much.

We go on “route marches,” which the platoon sergeant says are long walks to harden us. If he thinks so, it’s not my place to tell him different. A “route march” is about as far as to our mailbox at home. Then the city guys get sore feet and we all ride back in trucks.

The sergeant is like a school teacher. He nags a lot. The Captain is like the school board. Majors and colonels just ride around and frown. They don’t bother you none.

This next will kill Walt and Elmer with laughing. I keep getting medals for shooting. I don’t know why. The bulls-eye is near as big as a chipmunk head and don’t move, and it ain’t shooting at you like the Higgett boys at home. All you got to do is lie there all comfortable and hit it. You don’t even load your own cartridges. They come in boxes.

Then we have what they call hand-to-hand combat training. You get to wrestle with them city boys. I have to be real careful though, they break real easy. It ain’t like fighting with that ole bull at home. I’m about the best they got in this except for that Tug Jordan from over in Silver Lake . I only beat him once. He joined up the same time as me, but I’m only 5’6″ and 130 pounds and he’s 6’8″ and near 300 pounds dry.

Be sure to tell Walt and Elmer to hurry and join before other fellers get onto this setup and come stampeding in.

Your loving daughter,

Alice

 


One Man’s Daring Proposal to Restore Greek Sovereignty

Hat tip Indentured Servant

Letter to Alexis Tsipras from Hugo Salinas Price, Dated July 25, 2012.

Hugo Salinas Price

Mexico City, July 25, 2012.

Mr. Alexis Tsipras
SYRIZA Party

Dear Mr. Tsipras:

Greetings! My name is Hugo Salinas Price; I am a Mexican citizen and retired entrepreneur who lives in Mexico City. In 1996, during my retirement, I founded the Mexican Civic Association Pro Silver, of which I am President.

Since 2002 this Association has been lobbying the Mexican Congress for approval of a law to introduce into circulation a silver coin which the population might use as money, in parallel with the Peso – our current money. Later on, I shall mention the fundamental bases for this plan and the reasons for which I consider that this plan might be of great utility for you and for Greece.

This proposal gathered much support on the part of Mexicans and legislators of all political parties in the Mexican Congress, during three successive legislative periods since 2002; several times we were near to its approval, although in the last moments the project was turned down – without ever coming to a vote – due to opposition from the Mexican Central Bank.

During the first days of June this year, while on a trip to Europe, I travelled to Athens with Mr. Max Keiser and his colleague, Ms. Stacy Herbert. The purpose of our visit to Greece, which was unplanned, was to speak with you on a subject which we consider important for your country; unfortunately, it was not possible to meet with you, because you were occupied with affairs regarding national elections at hand.

If we had had the opportunity to speak with you, Max and I would have told you that we thought it quite evident that Greece would have to declare itself in bankruptcy and abandon the Euro system. Max and I spoke with several Greek friends who are well-informed regarding the situation, and they told us that you could not express such an opinion at that time, because of the approaching elections.

However, now I see that you have publicly declared that the return of the Drachma is inevitable, and that is why I write.

This is what I wish to communicate to you:

Mr. Tsipras, the desperate situation of Greece offers you a unique opportunity to do something fundamentally great for Greece and to establish yourself as a great national leader. You are a young man and thanks to this, you have a brilliant opportunity to build a long career as a Statesman – not as a politician, but as a Statesman.

En effect, the return of the Drachma would allow Greece to pull itself together once more. It would definitely not make matters worse, for the present situation is so bad that the Drachma will give Greece an immediate respite.

Thus, the monetary heart of Greece would once again begin to beat and furnish the necessary liquidity to get the economy “moving” again.

However, this measure will inevitably entail monetary inflation through the creation of increasing amounts of Drachma to cover the budget deficits of the Greek government for some time, and the inflation will bring about the constant devaluation of the Drachma.

Continue reading “One Man’s Daring Proposal to Restore Greek Sovereignty”

A LETTER TO MY FRIENDS IN RUSSIA

It’s a long letter. Just shaddup and read it. He talks about human caused climate-change bullshit …(I think believing that is an absolute requirement for college professors.) And I totally disagree with him regarding the Crimea … that Russia “annexed” it in the wrong way.  He makes an interesting case about Russia becoming part of NATO …. but, it appears to me to be academic pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking. Nuts, actually. But, he says a lot more correct things, than incorrect ones.

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During the nineties, my profession (professor of Philosophy) afforded me the opportunity to visit Russia seven times. Most often, this was at the invitation of Russian academic institutions, and once to supervise a student exchange. The scholarly papers that resulted from these visits may be found here at my website,The Online Gadfly, along with a detailed account of my involvement with Russian scholars during that memorable decade.

Recent events have directed my thoughts and concerns to Russia and my many friends there, which prompts me to write the following letter and to share it with American internet readers.

“And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother’s eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?” —-Matt. 7:3

http://www.opednews.com/populum/cachedimages/s_500_opednews_com_0_stbasil-jpg_23_20140707-420.gif

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My Dear Friends,

It appears, to my great sorrow, that the Cold War is returning. However, this is no time for despair. Rather it is a time for a renewed determination of men and women of good will on both sides to resist this drift toward confrontation, and to strive to restore the brief moment of friendship, respect and mutual cooperation that we experienced scarcely a decade ago.

For our part, we Americans are facing grave difficulties acknowledging the sources of this renewed conflict, and thus finding a remedy. Regrettably, a prominent cause of this difficulty is our corporate media.

I

The American news media, once the envy of the world, has recently deteriorated to a condition in which it can no longer be trusted as a source of international news, least of all of news and opinion about Russia. This is because the news media, a vast majority of which is owned by just six corporate conglomerates, has in effect become the propaganda arm of the U.S government and of the oligarchs and corporations which, in effect, own that government.

There are, to be sure, independent news media that freely present suppressed news and dissenting opinions, but their audience is small and their influence on official policies is insignificant.

The sorry state of American news media was vividly demonstrated shortly before the outbreak of the Iraq War in March, 2002. Then, with a single voice, the American news media broadcast the Bush/Cheney accusation that Saddam Hussein of Iraq posed an immediate threat to the United States; that, in the words of Vice President Cheney: “there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction. There is no doubt he is amassing them to use against our friends, against our allies, and against us.” Leading that charge were the most honored and prestigious American newspapers, The New York Times and The Washington Post.

Dissenters were effectively banished from the corporate media. Prominent among these was Phil Donahue, a popular media figure familiar to many Russians from his trans-continental “Spacebridge” in the eighties with Vladimir Pozner of Gostelradio.. Donahue dared to include on his television program critics of the Bush/Cheney policies and of the rush to war with Iraq. And so he was thrown off the air.

And so, a month before the outbreak of the Iraq war, more than four out of five Americans believed that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq military either had or was actively developing weapons of mass destruction. Thus, at that time, more than 70% of Americans believed that the war was justified. Now that it is an indisputable fact that there were no such weapons in Iraq, in 2010 belief in Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction dropped to 40%, with some 55% believing that the war was a mistake. It was a “mistake” that cost more than four thousand American lives and as many as a half million Iraqi lives.

It was a “mistake” that an aggressive, objective and independent news media might have prevented — a mistake for which the corporate media has shown little remorse or evidence of reform.

Today, much of this same corporate media is portraying Vladimir Putin as “the new Stalin,” eager to re-establish the old Soviet Union and threatening the peace and stability of the post-Soviet “new world order.” There is no mention in this media of the legitimate security concerns of Russian posed, notably, by the eastward expansion of NATO up to and beyond the borders of the former Soviet Union. (See Stephen Cohen’s “Distorting Russia”).

So how might the bewildered American citizen understand the emerging conflict with Russia, now that the corporate media has discredited itself? For my part, I look to history, and then to independent and foreign sources, and I critically examine the experience and qualifications of the reporters and commentators. What are their academic backgrounds? Have they published peer-reviewed studies of Russian history, culture, and politics? Have they spent significant time in Russia? Do they read and speak the Russian language? There are many such individuals, shunned by the corporate media, who can nevertheless be found and studied. Among them, Stephen Cohen, Ambassador Jack Matlock, Ray McGovern, John Mearshimer, the late George F.Kennan. Most of these individuals agree that historical facts will not support the account of the Russo-American conflict that is presented to the American people by its politicians and journalists.

Finally, as I search for an accurate account of Russian policy and opinion, I reflect upon my personal experience in my seven trips to Russia, and my personal encounters with many Russian scholars and ordinary citizens.

As a result, I have come to conclusions significantly contrary to “the official version” here in the United States.

II

Blame for the current Russo-American conflict, I believe, falls on both sides. I suspect that most of my Russian friends would agree. In international conflicts, rarely is one side blameless and the other totally culpable.

However, writing as I am to friends in Russia and faced with unreliable sources of information in our media, I am reluctant to set down a bill of accusations against Vladimir Putin and the Russian government. That, my Russian friends, is your task for which you are far more qualified than I am. Russia is your country, not mine. You are there, in Russia, reading the Russian press and directly acquainted with Russian life. I can only see Russia “through a glass, darkly,” from Russian and American sources that I have come to trust only tentatively. Thus, unlike too many of my compatriots, I will not be so arrogant as to pass uninformed judgment on Russia and its leaders.

That said, I have just three comments regarding President Putin and his policies. Following that, I will have much to say about American policies and attitudes which, I believe, are aggravating this unfortunate conflict and standing in the way of a just and mutually satisfactory resolution.

The Role of Foreign NGOs. I am told that Putin’s government has severely restricted the activity of non-Russian non-governmental organizations. Given the shameful and ignorant behavior of many American “experts” who visited Russia in the early nineties with open mouths and closed minds, I can well understand. I sat next to one of these “free market fundamentalists” on a flight back from Moscow, and I was appalled by his recitation of what he “told” the Russians, with scarcely a word about what he had learned from the Russians.

Even so, I sincerely hope that President Putin is aware that there are many unofficial American and European scholars and organizations eager to work with counterparts in Russia, to the mutual advantage of both sides. They should not be shut out of Russia, least of all while tensions are increasing between our countries. I am, of course, thinking most urgently of environmental issues. We share the same planet, which is now imperiled by a looming global climate crisis. There is much more that unites than divides us. So I hope that the Russian government will critically examine the qualifications and motives of foreign NGOs and welcome those that offer genuine benefits to the Russian people.

About Crimea . I am told that the vast majority of Crimeans are native Russian speakers, and approve of annexation with Russia. If so, then perhaps Crimea should rejoin the Russian Federation. My concern is how this was accomplished. It strikes me that it was too sudden. These things should take time, and should involve diplomatic negotiations and some treaty compensation with Ukraine. Unfortunately, the precipitous annexation of Crimea has provided rhetorical ammunition to the American “neo-cons” eager to restart the Cold War. And that is very regrettable.

The Obama-Putin Dialogue. I read that the weekly conversations between our presidents were halted by Mr. Putin on the grounds that he “does not negotiate under threat of sanctions.” This is an understandable response of a proud leader of a proud nation. Yet the break-off of personal contacts between opposing leaders can be perilous. If, as reported, Putin has ordered Russian troops away from the Ukrainian border and back to their bases, Obama should on his part remove the sanctions. Then let the conversations resume.

III

Progress toward a resolution of this conflict is severely complicated by the following five pervasive attitudes of many Americans and, still worse, a dominant faction of the American media and of American legislators and policy makers.

1. A failure to recognize that Russia has legitimate sovereign interests. This failure, combined with historical ignorance, accounts for the widespread inability of Americans to appreciate the Russians’ desire for a secure western border.

As few ordinary Americans realize, and still more knowledgeable Americans fail to fully appreciate, twice in the past century and once again in the previous century, armies from the west marched across the plains of Poland and Ukraine to devastate the heart of Russia. The last of these invasions took the lives of twenty-five million Soviet citizens and ninety percent of the male cohort born in the early 1920s. During that war, nothing remotely like this happened to the United States, which suffered a quarter million battle casualties (one for every one hundred Soviets), and on whose soil not a single Nazi bomb or shell fell.

And yet, many Americans seem astonished that the Russians should take offense when NATO, a military alliance, expands up to and beyond the western border of the former Soviet Union. And NATO did so in violation of an agreement between President Bush (Senior) and Mikhail Gorbachev. As Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, aide to former Secretary of State Colin Powell,reflected on a recent broadcast.

When … George H. W. Bush accomplished … the reunification of Germany … without a shot being fired, … one of the reasons [he] could do it was that [he] assured Gorbachev and later Yeltsin that NATO would be quiescent, it wouldn’t move. It wouldn’t threaten Russia. In fact I was there when we told the Russians that we were going to make them a member. Well that fell apart [when] they perceived right quickly that we weren’t really serious.

And then … we started to expand NATO, and stuck both our fingers into the Russian eye, so to speak. It’s clear to me why Putin responded in Georgia and why he is now responding in Crimea and Ukraine. This is what great powers do when they get concerned about their “near-abroad.” So we have as much fault here as anyone else in this situation. (The Real News, 5/9/14).

In 1997, George F. Kennan, the foremost American diplomat of the twentieth century, wrote that “expanding NATO would be the most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-cold-war era.” (New York Times, 2/5/97) And yet, despite solemn assurances to Gorbachev and Yeltsin, NATO did just that.

“Why,” many Americans are heard to complain, “don’t the Russians trust us?” The reasons are obvious and part of the historical record. Yet few will pause to listen to a reply.

2. Historical Ignorance . Survey after survey tells the same story: most Americans are appallingly ignorant of world history — and of Russian history in particular. For example, American are very concerned about Ukraine. Yet in a recent poll, only one in six could locate Ukraine on a world map. When asked to name the decisive battles of World War II, you will likely hear Americans say first of all, “Normandy,” and then “Okinawa.” Mention Stalingrad, Kursk or Sevastopol and you will likely be greeted with a blank stare. Even some allegedly educated Americans persist in the belief that Russia is a cultural backwater, notwithstanding its enduring contributions to the arts, literature and science. (See my “Russia, An Appreciation” ).

So how many Americans today are aware of the violated agreement not to expand NATO beyond the border of a unified Germany? How many are aware that about 25 million ethnic Russians now reside in the fourteen former Soviet republics outside Russia, often under hostile regimes? How many know that Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, is the historical birthplace of Russian culture? Regrettably, not many.

3. Americans lack a “mirror image” perspective — a capacity to appreciate what it is like to walk a mile in another’s shoes.

At the Nuremberg war-crimes trials, the U.S. Army assigned Dr. Gustav Gilbert, a psychologist fluent in German, to interview the Nazi defendants. What moral flaws, the Army asked, allowed these criminals to do what they did? Dr. Gilbert concluded that the fundamental flaw was “an absence of empathy” a failure to recognize the basic humanity of their victims, and to perceive the world as their victims see it.

“Absence of Empathy” is not only a moral failing, it is also fatally impractical. “Knowing the mind of your opponent” is essential to success in warfare, in games and sports, and in international diplomacy. A chess player incapable of “getting into the mind” of his opponent, will surely lose.

I submit that much of the conflict between our nations is due to an inability, deliberate or otherwise, to study and understand the mind of the opponent — to know, from our side, what it’s like “to think like a Russian.”

And so, in the American media and among our politicians there is a widespread failure to acknowledge that Russians are people very much like us, who respond to threats and insults very much as we do. Instead, our policies seem to assume that Russians and Americans are of different species.

For example, we often hear in our media that “Russians only understand strength” or that “signs of weakness such as negotiation and compromise will only encourage aggressive Russian behavior.” So if we send troops to eastern NATO members or impose sanctions, then the Russians will surely “back down.” And yet if the Russians treat us the same way — if they stand up against us with troop deployments and sanctions — we are resolved to “stand our ground” and respond aggressively.

Out policy makers also claim to be astonished at the Russians’ complaints about the eastward expansion of NATO, or of our involvement in Ukrainian domestic politics. But as Vladimir Pozner wisely points out, “try to imagine for a moment that a revolution occurs in Mexico, a new leader comes to power and invites Russia to place part of its armed forces along the Mexican-American border.” No need to imagine, just look back at the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1963. If John Kennedy would not tolerate Soviet missiles 90 miles offshore the United States, why should Vladimir Putin not complain of NATO missiles along the Russian border?

4. American policy-makers need an enemy . I believe that the American media and politicians are much more captivated to this need than is the American public, although this media and these politicians have persuaded many ordinary Americans to believe that the designated adversary of the moment is in fact an “enemy.”.

In a 1987 letter to The New York Times, Georgi Arbatov, then the Director of the Soviet Institute of the US and Canada, wrote: “We have a secret weapon … we will deprive America of The Enemy. And how [then will] you justify … the military expenditures that bleed America white?”

The simple and straightforward solution: If we don’t have an enemy, then we will invent one. Thus Saddam Hussein, Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and now, in the minds of many American journalists and politicians, Vladimir Putin.

This “solution” extends back to the administration of Harry Truman. When Truman’s advisers urged the President to strengthen the military in the face of threatened communist expansion to Greece and Italy, Truman replied that the American people would not tolerate a revived military so close to the end of World War II. Republican Senator Arthur Vandenburg replied, “the we will have to scare the hell out of the American People.”

I submit, along with most Americans, that during the Truman and subsequent administrations, the Soviet threat was genuine, and that a policy of “containment” was justified. Incidentally, the author of that “containment policy” was George F. Kennan who, as noted above, strongly condemned the eastward expansion of NATO.

Clearly, that deliberate “scaring” of the American public has now become a national and a global menace. Truman’s successor, Dwight Eisenhower, warned of the menace as he left office in 1961: “In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.” Tragically, that advice was not heeded. And so today, almost half of all military spending throughout the world is by the United States, while much of the remaining half is by US allies.

Be assured that no Americans, including the “military-industrial complex,” want a “hot” war. All sane individuals realize that such a war would bring total devastation throughout the world. But that “military-industrial-complex” is quite in favor of nurturing a threat of war — a “cold war” — as a justification for their existence and prosperity.

And that “enemy” must be a credible opponent. If our presumed “enemy” is Al Qaeda, then we are building multi-billion dollar aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines to fight an “enemy” without a navy, and billion-dollar aircraft to fight an “enemy” without an air force. Absurd! And an increasing number of ordinary Americans recognize this absurdity. Enter, conveniently, Vladimir Putin and the Russians.

It is impossible to overstate the institutional and economic momentum behind the urge to resume the Cold War. There are, by design, military contractors in every congressional district in the United States. Enormous fortunes and millions of American jobs require national defense “business as usual.” And so Congress appropriates funds for weapons systems that the military insists they don’t want or need. Arms reduction is simply not on the Congressional agenda.

The implication? “We can’t afford peace, it would ruin the economy.” This is widely believed by politicians, economists, and the media. And it is false. The total American demobilization after World War II, with millions of soldiers and sailors returning to civilian life, was followed by unprecedented prosperity.

Moreover, there is an urgent need to apply military technology to common global emergencies, most notably the need for renewable energy and the mitigation of climate change. This is a crisis that calls for the cooperative endeavors of Americans, Russians, and industrial countries throughout the world.

If the America economy needs an “enemy,” the energy and climate crises qualify. With these realization, we can together “beat swords into plowshares.”

5. The United States is an “exceptional” and “indispensable” nation. Every American president, including the current president, proclaims that the United States is an “exceptional” nation. Throughout the land we hear, “American is the greatest nation on earth,” or even, “the greatest nation in history.” No one who says anything less is deemed qualified for public office.

I am not one of those Americans, though I nonetheless consider myself a patriot. Perhaps the United States was, at one time, “the greatest nation” — arguably in the decade following the great World War. But no longer. As a patriot, endorsing and celebrating the enduring moral and political ideals of the founding documents of our republic, I believe that it is my duty as a citizen to protect, indeed to restore those ideals. They have, in recently years, been seriously violated by our government without noteworthy protest by my fellow citizens.

But “the greatest nation?” By almost any objective standard of national excellence — health, infant mortality, life expectancy, crime, wealth inequality, education, even personal and civil libertythe United States is not in the lead, and its standing has, in recent years, been declining.

We should not be surprised to discover that very few individuals outside of the United States agree that the US is “the greatest nation on earth.”

Nonetheless, these days American politicians, diplomats, journalists and corporate “think-tank” officials, roam the world preaching “The American Way” — a dogma of unregulated “free” markets and limited government. I daresay that you saw an abundance of this kind of activity in Russia in the years following the fall of the Soviet Union.

“The American Way,” these unofficial emissaries are convinced, is what is best for any developed or developing nation around the world, regardless of whether the people of that nation feel otherwise. After all, these preachers say, “we represent ‘the greatest nation on earth.’ And we will share our wisdom and our ‘way,’ even if we must do so by force of arms.”

Sounds insufferably arrogant, doesn’t it? I agree, and so too do many of my compatriots.

That arrogance was vividly displayed in a policy statement from the U.S. Defense Department, drafted in March 1992, the final year of the George H. W. Bush (Senior) administration. In that document we find the following proclamation:

The U.S. must show the leadership necessary to establish and protect a new order that holds the promise of convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests. In non-defense areas, we must account sufficiently for the interests of the advanced industrial nations to discourage them from challenging our leadership or seeking to overturn the established political and economic order. We must maintain the mechanism for deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role.

The document, co-authored by Defense Undersecretary Paul Wolfowitz, was widely criticized and thus re-written and released with more moderate language. Even so, the original statement reflected the views of the “neo-conservatives” (or “neo-cons”), a group of policy analysts that would become very influential in the second Bush administration.

Prominent among the critics of the original document was the late Senator Edward Kennedy, who called it “a call for a 21st century American imperialism that no other nation can or should accept.”

Exactly ! And so I would ask the defenders of this policy, “how would the United States government and media respond to such a statement issuing from the Russian Foreign Ministry?” If taken seriously, such a statement from the Kremlin would suffice to re-ignite a new Cold War. Yet those in the American government and the media who proposed and defended this doctrine of a uni-polar “New American Century” seem to assume that Russia, China the “Pacific Rim” and the European Union would meekly submit to this “Pax Americana.”

Such is the dangerous arrogance that arises out of the conceit of national “exceptionalism.”

President Putin, I believe, expressed the concern of national leaders throughout the world when he wrote last year, in a letter to the New York Times:

It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.

I have been severely critical of American attitudes and policies toward Russia. But please understand that these attitudes and policies come “from the top” — from “establishment” media and politicians and corporate “think tanks.” If many ordinary Americans agree with these misguided “leaders,”, it is because the public is awash in establishment propaganda. But, given the truth, time and again the American people have exhibited a fundamental common sense. As Winston Churchill wryly put it, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.”

Accordingly, it is the responsibility of cool and informed heads on both sides to get the facts to the American people. And so we turn finally to a few proposals.

IV

What is to be done?

1. The American Public to the Corporate Media: Reform or Perish! The American people are unlikely to demand a change in the belligerent policies of their government toward Russia as long as they are bewitched by the corporate news media propaganda.

Fortunately, there are promising indications that this spell of official propaganda is weakening. The corporate media cannot survive without an audience, and that audience is deserting the news media. Many Americans are fully aware that they were lied into a disastrous war in Iraq. Today, the same individuals that led us into that war are scorned, even in the corporate media. It is now abundantly clear that the American public will simply not tolerate a renewed Iraq war.

Sadly, it is not equally clear that the public will resist a renewed Cold War. But the Iraq example indicates that such resistance is possible. But first some fundamental facts about Russian history, legitimate national interests and political realities must at last be presented to the American people.

Recent Russian history provides a vivid example of what is needed in the United States today. When the Russian people finally realized that the Soviet media were lying to them, the people turned to unauthorized sources — foreign broadcasts and publications, and samizdat. When the Soviet regime lost the ear of the people, the fate of that regime was sealed.

If the American corporate media is to survive, it must abandon propaganda and return to the responsible, verifiable reporting which, at one time, was the envy of the world. And if that is to happen, the people must demand it.

2. Citizens of both countries must take the initiative toward reconciliation. They must not wait for each government to act responsibly.

A dramatic and successful example of such an initiative by scientists on both sides took place some thirty years ago, and it succeeded in forcing the US government to agree to a mutual cessation of nuclear weapons testing. While I was not involved in this initiative, I was personally acquainted with several individuals who were.

In the mid-eighties, it was the firm policy of the Reagan Administration to continue nuclear testing, despite the voluntary suspension of test by the Soviet government under Mikhail Gorbachev. Central to the American policy was the insistence that compliance with a test-ban agreement was impossible to verify.

Seismologists on both sides knew full well that this official claim was flatly false. And so a few American scientists proposed to set up seismic monitors near the Soviet test site at Semipalitinsk in Kazakhstan. To their amazement, Gorbachev readily agreed. Soon thereafter, Soviet monitors were installed in Nevada. In the face of this fait accompli, official American resistance crumbled and an informal test ban followed. (For a fuller account of this Soviet/American scientific initiative, see my “Just Do It!” at my website, The Online Gadfly).

3. Economic links, and thus co-dependence, between Russia and the United States must be established. As noted above, powerful economic incentives are pulling us toward a renewed Cold War. Countervailing economic incentives can and must be established to pull in the opposite direction — toward peaceful accommodation. To quote a popular American phrase, we must seek to do well (economically) by doing good (morally).

Several European nations are leading the way. These nations, most notably Germany, are dependent of Russian energy resources. These same nations are resisting strong sanctions against Russia proposed by “hawks” in NATO and Washington. Perhaps, with significant investments and market potentials in Russia, American corporations and investors might think twice about promoting a new Cold War.

4. Americans and Russians must learn to perceive and treat each other as persons, and not as abstractions. It is much more difficult to target a personal friend than it is to target an alien “other.” War propagandists know this full well, as their over-arching task is to “depersonalize the enemy.”

Like David Hume, many moral philosophers (and I include myself), identify empathy as the foundation of morality. This fundamental principle is central to all the great world religions. And empathy presupposes the capacity to perceive others as human persons like themselves — as individuals with hopes and fears, with families that they love, with careers to which they are devoted, and with moral ideals which guide their lives.

Empathy is a human quality that is best engendered through a personal acquaintance with individuals. Consequently, if peaceful coexistence and cooperative prosperity is to be achieved between the United States and Russia, exchanges and meetings of students, professional colleagues and business partners across our borders must be encouraged. Cross-continental media conversations, like the popular Donahue/Pozner “Spacebridge” of the mid-eighties, should be renewed. Better than commentaries about Russia by Americans, our media should invite commentaries by Russians such Vladimir Pozner and Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, who have excellent video “presence” and can speak to us directly in their flawless English.

Do American diplomats, scholars and journalists appear on Russian television and publish in Russian print media? I encountered a few during my visits to Russia: a few, but not enough. Many of these Americans can speak to the Russians in their language which, I am confident, would astonish and impress that Russian audience.

At a time of increasing tension between our countries, personal exchanges and conversations are becoming more difficult, and for that very reason are more urgent. However much the new cold-warriors strive to suppress such exchanges, this suppression cannot succeed if people of good will on both sides insist upon promoting a mutually respectful conversation.

5. Reform NATO and then invite Russia to join. The objective of NATO was stated explicitly in its 1949 charter: “contain” the Soviet Union through the threat of military force, and prevent the spread of Communism.

But now that the Soviet Union is no more, what remains of that original objective? If nothing, then why the persistence of NATO?

The answer may lie less with an abiding Western hostility toward Russia, than with “institutional inertia” — the historically familiar capacity of established institutions to persist long after their initial objectives have become irrelevant. Monarchies in Western European countries are a prime example: politically inert and purely “ceremonial.”

So too with NATO. There are today too many military careers, corporate interests and personal fortunes invested in NATO and in the American military-industrial complex that is it’s primary support for one to realistically suppose that NATO will simple wither away and vanish. Nor is it feasible that the eastward expansion of NATO will soon be rescinded. Unfortunately, that is an omelet that cannot be unscrambled.

And yet NATO, now on the western border of Russia, is a major obstacle to a Russian/American detente. What then must be done?

The solution, I believe, is not the immediate abolition of NATO (impossible), but rather a transformation of NATO into an international alliance that is no longer threatening to Russia. This begins with a dismantling of forward missile installations and a reduction of military facilities. NATO then focuses its attention on economic, cultural and scientific research activities. Eventually, the “expansion” of NATO will include Russia. With the patent absurdity of hostility toward a member nation, the original objective of “containment” of Russia will then be lost to history.

But what then will distinguish the demilitarized NATO from the United Nations? Might not NATO simple be absorbed into the UN?

I have no problem with that outcome. Nor, I am sure, should any future Russian government. For with that outcome, the folly of NATO expansion in the nineties will at last be remedied.

6. Russia and the United States must unite in the face of common threats.

It’s a fact as old as recorded history, and no doubt far beyond into pre-history: sworn enemies and rivals unite in the face of a common threat. Thus the Athenians and Spartans combined their forces to defeat the invading Persians. So too capitalist United States and communist Soviet Union united to defeat Nazi Germany.

Today the Earth — our common home — faces a threat far greater even than the invading armies of Xerxes or Adolf Hitler. Our technological cleverness has set the Earth’s climate on a course which, if unaltered, will lead to the abandonment of all the coastal cities and to a global climate throughout much of planet’s surface that will be incompatible with human habitation and food production.

Unfortunately, much of the disruption of the Earth’s climate is beyond repair. Even so, significant mitigation of, and adaptation to, the coming emergency might be accomplished with a coordinated world-wide effort — the sooner the better.

Russia, the United States, Europe, the Pacific Rim — the foremost technological and scientific societies — must lead this effort. And it must be a cooperative and coordinated effort.

Moreover, the scientists and engineers enlisted in this effort need not wait for government leadership. In the United States, opposition by the fossil fuel industries has blocked effective climate legislation and executive action. And so, perhaps, like the seismologists three decades ago who led the way to a nuclear test ban, private and non-governmental innovators might have to create and apply new technologies that established commercial interests and their captive governments now proclaim to be “impossible.” Examples abound: renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, along with transportation powered by batteries and bio-fuels, would probably not be in place today if their development relied entirely on government-funded research and application.

For a brief historical moment, from the mid-eighties to the mid-nineties, Russian history and culture and the Russian people, were regarded by most Americans with respect, admiration, and even affection. No doubt, this moment was largely brought about by Gorbachev’s policies of glasnost and perestroika, by the reunification of Germany, by the Soviet peoples’ successful resistance in 1991 to the Communist counter-revolution, and by the mutual reduction of nuclear weapons. This was the era of the Donahue/Pozner “Spacebridge,” of numerous media programs accurately presenting the history and culture of Russia to an appallingly ignorant American audience. Clearly, a large majority of Americans, weary of a seemingly endless Cold War, had had enough and were eager to usher in a new era of peace and friendship with the Russian people. I trust that the same is true of Russian attitudes toward Americans.

And then, all too soon, it ended. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, American and NATO officials insisted upon treating Russia, not as a partner, but rather as a defeated “enemy.” With the arrogance that I have detailed above, NATO expanded eastward, ill-informed and self-appointed “advisors” invaded Russia with open mouths and closed minds, and the American corporate media launched a new campaign to demonize Russia and its leaders.

So today we face this choice: shall the Russian and American people be antagonists or shall they be partners? Influential people in both countries (most assuredly in the United States) stake their careers, their prestige and their fortunes on the prospect of a renewed cold war. Yet a vast majority of people in both countries demand peace and friendship between our countries — or would if the plain facts were brought before them. The darkening course of events suggest that the leaders, in my country at least, may well have their Cold War. But their success is not fore-ordained. They are few, and the people who want no part of a new Cold War are many. We can have our peace, but only if we demand it.

For my part, I will not abandon my friends. No pleas of “patriotism” will ever lead me to hate Russia or the Russians.

Your Enduring Friend,

Dr. Ernest Partridge

http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/Bungling-Toward-Oblivion–by-Ernest-Partridge-Post-soviet-Russia_Russia-140707-173.html

 

Ukraine Update From A Soldier In The Trenches

If MSM-whore (lack of) coverage is any indication, then the conflict in Ukraine is over.

Gee, I wonder why? Maybe it’s because Amerikan war-hawks were unable to goad Russia into intervening? Maybe it’s because the Europeans are giving little more than lip-service to Obongo’s sanctions? Maybe it’s because Russia and China signed a near-trillion-dollar oil deal, which may one day be recognized as the beginning of the end of the US Petrodollar? Maybe it’s because Putin has removed the veil from the AssClown half-Neegrow and revealing to all the total ineptness of The-World’s-Most-Powerful-Leader?

The following letter was posted by The Saker.  The letter is written by a Ukrainian solder, of Russian heritage, in the trenches.  It’s a bit long, but the guy has some great wisdom regarding war, and a seemingly unbiased first-hand report from ground-level.  A rare, no-bullshit, account … thanks to the internet and a brave man.

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INTRO COMMENTS BY THE SAKER

I have recently come into contact with “Juan” who currently resides near the conflict area in the Ukraine. I don’t personally know Juan but I am confident that he/she is a person with a military background and a first-hand knowledge of the Russian military, including elite units. In our email exchanges we soon established that while I was “one of ‘them’ who was buried under 15 kilometers of concrete, rock and steel” “Juan” was one of the “poor ground pounders had to slog through the mud and slime, rain and snow’. This gave me the idea to ask “Juan” to provide the readers of this blog with an analysis of the conflict in the Ukraine written from the point of view of somebody whose career was on the front lines and not, like me, in air-conditioned rooms with fancy computers and communication gear. I sincerely think that this latter perspective is something this blog sorely needed and I am delighted to be able to share it with you today.

A big thank you to “Juan” for agreeing to share his views with all of us!

The Saker

THE LETTER

Introduction:

I have been asked by The Saker to share my view of the current conflict in the Ukraine. I will provide no information that is not publicly available if one wants to dig and one is observant with the many videos available on the internet amongst other places. I will give my opinion on the fighting capabilities of Russian soldiers (By Russian Soldiers I mean ethnic Russians and citizens of the Russian Federation serving in the Russian Army. This includes most, but not all, on both sides of the Donbas and Lugansk fighting. It is meant as neither a compliment nor a denigration.) but I will not answer any questions, that will be up to the Saker, although he is free to consult me about questions.

I am apolitical publicly but I will give an opinion in private. I have served. We will leave it at that with the exception of stating while Saker was safely ensconced under more than a few inches of concrete and steel, I was boots in the mud, therefore he and I have a totally different view of events, his world wide, mine what I could see through my weapon sights and not much more.

I will give my assessment of the military situation and forces arrayed against each other in the Donbas and Lugansk Oblasti but first I will say a little something about War.

War is not a nice vocation, it is not a nice event. War is almost always, operative term being almost, a result of failed diplomacy. War is in essence an extension of diplomacy and as such is almost always political one way or another. Politics be damned, to us who have been to war, to us who have fought, actually fought, we hate war more than anyone. For those of you who have not been to war, and don’t mean those of you who have served in one way or another in your army, but those of you who never picked up your weapon and went nose to nose with the proclaimed enemy, fought him and won, you have no idea what it is like.

You see the videos, you see the AAR’s (After Action Reviews, the synopsis of what went right and want went wrong and why.), you read the endless pontifications of the talking heads in the news media and the politicians, but you have never seen real War unless you have stood and fought, watched your enemy fall, watched your comrades fall, seen the toll on civilians, walked the field after a battle, seen the destruction, smelled the smells, heard the sounds, felt the fear (We are always afraid before combat. It is our training and experience that allows us to hide the fear from our comrades and the younger men in the unit.). No, unless you have stood in the line you don’t know War.

For most of you War is an abstract happening, something to talk about, to play video games about, to laugh and joke about in the cafe or bar after work, to urge one side or the other to attack, fight, do something. If you only knew the reality of combat you would never even whisper the word ‘war’, you would hang your politicians from the nearest lamp post at the first beat of the war drums.

We are soldiers. You ask us to do this and we do this for you. In the West we are as likely to be spit upon as thanked. When the war clouds gather you scream for us to help you, to save you. We do what you ask and for this many of you denigrate us. In Russia we are honored, welcomed home, thanked for what we did. Yes, we who have been to war, who have stood in the line and fought, we hate war. We also understand more than most that there times, much as we hate it, that one must fight. In my opinion this is one of those times when men have to fight for Donbas and Lugansk.

One more thing before I turn to the topic at hand: If you want to understand Russia, Russians and Russian culture you must start by studying Byzantium, it’s history, culture, politics and religion. Russia and ethnic Russians are the inheritor of this culture and religion lock, stock and barrel, and study of Byzantium explains a very great deal about Russia and Russians and points you in the direction of further studies.

The context

The events in Kiev starting in very late November and going on to today. The current government in Kiev came to power by way of a coup d’etat in late February of this year. Shortly after that coup the citizens of Crimea and Sevastopol felt threatened by the new government and seized power in Crimea and Sevastopol. Shortly after seizing power the citizens ask Russia for help and protection.

Russian responded with alacrity and within a few days Russian forces landed in and around Kerch from Novorossiysk. The assistance to Crimea was a bloodless accomplishment but in the event all the Ukrainian Army, Navy and Air Force based in Crimea were surrounded and cut off. Many immediately surrendered and the soldiers and sailors were offered the choice of repatriation to Ukraine with their families or to join the Russian Federation Armed Forces. Roughly 80% of the soldiers and sailors, both officers and rankers, opted to join the Russian Armed Forces. This tells a great deal about the morale of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

For 23 years the various Ukrainian governments had treated the armed forces budgets as a cash cow to be milked to oblivion. The soldiers and sailors for the most part in Crimea, and in reality of all Ukraine, were poorly equipped, poorly trained, poorly fed and many of the lower ranks had not been paid since November. Their armored vehicles, equipment, weapons and ships were a disgrace. At least 8 of the Ukraine Navy ships were refused repatriation by Kiev and are in the bone yard at Inkerman being cut up for scrap as I write or scheduled to be towed there shortly. Some tanks, BTR’s and BMP’s had not moved for literally years and had to be towed to the rail heads for repatriation to Ukraine. Of the 39 aircraft at Belbek Air Base 4 were airworthy. The others could not fly and some had been cannibalized to keep the 4 serviceable aircraft flying.

After Crimea voted to become part of the Russian Federation and were accepted in the Federation, several regions in the east of Ukraine became dissatisfied with the new government in Kiev and started to demand more autonomy from Kiev, in other words they wanted to elect their own leaders and administration heads and do away with the Kiev appointed heads of same as was the practice for 20 odd years.

Kiev refused and Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast then seized their local governments, ousted most of the appointed department heads and declared themselves independent. Kiev promptly sent units of the Ukraine Army to quell the unrest and most of the units refused to fight their fellow countrymen and in some cases changed sides and turned their armored vehicles over to the new Donbas Republic’s armed forces. This is to be expected in an army where most of the lower ranks are conscripts, in for a year or two and then gone.

The main fallacy of the Ukraine Armed Forces is they do not have a professional non commissioned officer corp, in other words sergeants, as a general rule. In the basic infantry units the sergeants are generally a conscript who has a bit more education or other attributes that set him a slight cut above the average conscript. He is selected and usually but not always sent to a short ‘sergeant school’, returns to his assigned unit and is then out when his conscription term us over. Sergeants are the backbone of a modern army and have been for well over 100 years. They are the ‘shop supervisors’ so to speak and translate the officer’s orders in to words and actions the troops understand and perform. Without professional and long service sergeants the junior and senior lieutenants have to do the sergeant’s work in addition to their own work. This adversely affects the work of the lieutenants and often results in their captains doing some of the lieutenant’s work, which in turn adversely affects the captains work.

Basic weapons

The basic infantry weapon in the Ukraine Army is the AK 47 and it’s later derivative the AK 74.

The AK 47 is an old design but reliable to an extreme. The weapon was designed as an automatic rifle for a very large conscript army and is quite simple and inexpensive to manufacture. It is easy and simple to field strip and maintain and it generally is not affected by the dirt and debris present on all battlefields. I have no idea how many rounds of ball and blank I have fired from one but it is certainly in the many thousands in both training and operations and I have never had that weapon fail to operate reliably nor have I had a single instance of the weapon jamming and failing to fire. 

I have also seen many other varieties of rifles and automatic hand held weapons, most notable being in one video an SKS semi automatic rifle was seen dating from, if my memory is correct, right after the second world war, a PPSh41 of World War 2 fame, short, stubby and with a round drum magazine attached to the bottom of the weapon and basically a lead hose that is not much use at ranges over 200m if that, and a Maxim machine gun on a metal two wheeled hand pulled carriage probably dating from the first world war. I did not see any ammunition for the Maxim so it may have been just for show. The first two I have seen in the hands of both the Federalists and the Kiev troops.

Both the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use the Automat Kalashnikov in it’s many variants, both the 47 and the 74.

The medium machine guns generally seen in the Donbas and Lugansk area are mostly of the PK variety. The PK went in service in the early 1960’s and and is still standard issue today. The weapon was designed by Mikhail Kalashnikov of AK fame. It is a reliable and simple machine, easy to use, clean and maintain and quite robust. It feeds from the right side using either open belted ammunition or boxed belts, the box attached to the bottom of the weapon receiver housing. The weapon fires the standard Russian round of 7.62 x 54 size, ever so slightly longer than the NATO round of the same caliber. Cyclic rate is between 700 and 800 rounds per minute and range is optimistically listed at 100 to 1500 meters. The weapon fires from the ‘open bolt’ system. When you release the trigger the weapon fires the round in the chamber and the bolt locks open rather than staying closed as on the AK variants. This it to facilitate belt changes when milliseconds count. The weapon is usually seen with a bipod attached to the front of the barrel but is also capable of being used on a tripod.

When listing the cyclic rate of an automatic weapon, in particular a machine gun, while the instruction sheet tells you that for instance the weapon will deliver up to 800 rounds per minute, the gunner does not want to fire that many rounds in one minute. The normal gunners rate of fire is in 3 to 6 round bursts. The only time you will hear sustained firing of a machine gun is generally when there is either a massive target of opportunity or if the bad guys are close enough to see the whites of their eyes. To fire a sustained burst of 800 rounds in one minute will lead to rapid barrel erosion and overheating and may well jam the weapon. This can put you in a decidedly awkward situation when the bad guys hear the weapon go silent.

Again, both the Federalists and the Ukraine Army use this weapon in several variants.

Tactics and morale

I have watched as much as time allows the videos and read both news reports and reports from other sources about the situation in the two oblasti. I will neither give the Kiev regime advice by publicly telling what I think they are doing wrong tactically nor will I reveal all I see that the Federalists are doing correctly beyond what is publicly available via news or the internet.

The coup government in Kiev was taken aback when some of the first Ukraine Army units arrived in Donbas and promptly refused to fight. Not only did they refuse to fight but some units went over to the Federalist side bringing with them their weapons and BMP light armored tracked fighting vehicles.

These events were a tremendous psychological and morale boost for the Federalists. The young soldiers and their officers had been told they would be fighting ‘terrorists’ and ‘separatists’ and they were shocked when in the villages they passed through or near the local citizens, dozens of them, came unarmed and physically blocked the light armored units advancing in the direction of Slavyansk with their very bodies.

After sometimes extended negotiations the units would either go over the the Federalists or simply turn around and return to their base or lager. In some instances this return to lager move had fatal consequences for some of the soldiers as they were executed by Right Sector operatives that very day. These executions were a mild variant on the old French philosophy of ‘we’ll execute a few soldiers for the encouragement of the others’. Reality is all armies have done this from time to time, either openly or, as the saying goes, ‘accidents happen’.

The reluctance to fight their visibly unarmed fellow citizens who were obviously not terrorists and insisted to the boys that they were not separatists but simply wanted more autonomy and had no intention of leaving Ukraine was a turning point in the Donbas situation. I don’t know what the coup government expected but obviously they have precisely zero experience in motivating soldiers and in tactics and strategy.

Some Ukraine Army units have fought, albeit not too well from what I know. Will the remains of the Ukraine Army fight in what is to be the final push tomorrow and Saturday? I do not know the answer to that question. Only time will tell.

Now, the ‘national guard’. These units are almost exclusively right sector, the ‘victors’ of maidan. They have had some of the best advisors money can buy, all supplied from The West. Some of them have been trained in musketry in their extensive system of training camps in the west of Ukraine but most do not have any real military training or experience. Those who signed up for the ‘national guard’ units were given a crash course in ‘soldier 101’ lasting two weeks at best and generally less, uniformed after a fashion, armed and sent east.

Will they fight? I don’t know. I do know they are quite good at appearing in towns and villages suddenly and in numbers, heavily armed but never have I personally seen or heard of them actually fighting in a stand up fight. They seem to be pretty good at spreading terror amongst unarmed citizens and not much else. Most of them are highly motivated and believe in what they are doing. It remains to be seen how well they will fight when their adversaries are shooting back. They do have some numbers on their side.

The overall situation with the Ukraine Army is everything they have is now in the East. They have large numbers of BMP and BTR light armored infantry carriers and fighting vehicles. They have brought just about every tank they have that will run and some of them, while aging platforms, have been extensively upgraded and modernized with the latest night vision devices and weapon sights and quite good reactive armor packages. Most of the serviceable artillery, both towed and self propelled

Air assets are thin. When the Ukrainians first began to use their Mi24 attack helicopters, which is an excellent close support, anti personnel and anti vehicle weapon, they lost several in two days. Ukraine also has several Sukhoi ground attack aircraft and some, actual number serviceable unknown, Migs of various types. The comment of air assets being ‘thin’ is a bit misguiding in that the Federalists have no air assets.The Federalists do have at least a few shoulder fired anti aircraft missiles and that is what brought down the 5 known destroyed Mi24 helicopters.

Tactics on the part of the Ukriane Army have been poor. While few if any of the actual Ukraine Army units have attacked the Federalists, the Mi24 choppers do seem to be piloted by airmen who will, indeed, attack. I have watched a slow but steady incremental increase of types of attacks and weapons used by the ‘national guard’ units attacking the Federalists. On 17 May the first mortar shells were fired, just a few and of 82 mm caliber, fired at a Fed blocking post. Kiev nervously looked over their shoulders at the Russian Army glowering at them from across the border, saw no repercussions to the first mortar bombardment, and decided to up the ante the next day, 18 May. That day the first 12 cm mortars were used in addition to the 82 mm mortars of the day before. Also that day the first patently civilian targets were hit and one single 12 cm howitzer shell was fired. Again, no reaction from Russia.

By 20 May, with no visible reaction from Russia concerning the increasing use of heavy weapons against both civilian targets and the Federalist positions, Ukraine began to systematically bombard targets of their choosing. The number of patently civilian casualties from 15 May to 23 May numbers over 50, some dead, most wounded.

On 22 May the first overt attack by ‘national guard’ units against a Ukraine Army unit that refused to attack civilians occurred near Volnovakha. The tactics used by the national guard were interesting but almost standard for them of late.

They arrived at the Ukraine Army lager outside the village in lime green vans and at least one white van, announced they were ‘friends’ and then started shooting at the Ukraine Army soldiers. While they managed to kill and wound most of the Army unit some did survive and most, after the initial surprise, fought back with spirit. Casualties in the Army unit seem to be in excess of 60 dead and wounded, on the national guard unit not as many but more than a few.After the fighting stopped and the wounded from both sides were removed, two Mi24 attack helicopters identified as ‘national guard’ helicopters, attacked the area and destroyed most of the trucks, ambulances and BMP’s of the Ukraine Army unit and the damaged national guard vans left in place. An entire Ukraine Army armored company was thus destroyed by ‘national guard’ units for refusing what in reality was an illegal order, to wit, attack an unarmed village full of civilians.

This incident alone will have very serious repercussions for the Kiev government, although the international community is dead silent about the killings. It shows that if you do not do what the Kiev government tells you to do you will be killed. Every unit in the entire Ukraine Army knew of this incident within an hour of it’s happening. This will adversely affect the morale and combat effectiveness of the Ukraine Army from top to bottom.

It is very possible that some Ukraine units may either attack ‘national guard’ units or simply change sides. That remains to be seen, but it is a fact that soldiers can not be made to attack with weapons pointed at their backs from the rear. They will be just as likely to turn on the enforcers as they are to attack the perceived ‘enemy’. There are already, as of 08:15 local time on 23 May, unconfirmed but reliable reports of two Ukraine Army units going over to the Federalist side.

On the Federalist side, tactics have been developed ad hoc using the available units and soldiers. They have several advantages in that most are local boys and they know the surrounding areas like the backs of their hands, having grown up there. After seizing several weapons storages in both Donetsk and Lugansk Oblast the Federalists are now reasonably well armed and supplied with ordinance including anti air missiles and anti tank weapons, antitank being both missiles and RPG’s plus a few old but as new condition antitank rifles which have no trouble ventilating any BTR or BMP.

It is obvious from their tactics that they hold no area that they are willing to fight to the last man for at this moment that has been aggressed by the Kiev forces. From what I have seen on the scattered but continuous attacks on their ‘blocking posts’ they will generally withdraw at the first sign of national guard presence in attack mode, sit back and wait. The national guard unit will then take the post, do the obligatory ‘burn the barricade’ drill, take what food is lying around and leave. The Feds then return, rebuild the barricade, sit back and have lunch. The Feds have lost men in these raids but the losses have been low.

The Federalists do often attack national guard units and the one Ukraine Army unit that does seem willing to fight. The national guard units, being generally on the defensive de facto, are in the position of having to defend a large area and lack the manpower required to do that. The Nats (I will do a name change now, or a shortening of names. The Federalists will be known as the Feds, the national guard and their allies will be known as the Nats) do have many strong positions in some areas that the Feds are smart enough to not attack. However, from readily available information it is obvious that the Feds to attack and/or ambush Nat units often.

They use the classic tactic of having a local preponderance of force or, as the Confederate General P. G. T. Beauregard said 150 years ago, ‘I got there fustus with the mostus’, in other words local superiority at the moment. Local superiority does not necessarily mean superior numbers, it can, and often does, mean local surprise and instant domination of the battle area by fire. The Feds do this drill by day or night.

These tactics seem to be working, at least for now. The Nats casualties for the last month are well in excess of 600 dead and a like number of wounded, wounded meaning anyone who is hurt one way or another badly enough to be off duty for a time to full blown intensive care. For the Feds casualties are not reliably known but have not been anywhere near the numbers of Nat casualties. Civilian casualties there are no reliable numbers for but from reliable sources do run over 200 dead and wounded in the last month in the two oblasti.

If the Kiev regime manages to attack throughout the entire area at one time they will probably win this campaign as they seem to be perfectly willing to accept civilian and military casualties and damage that would not be looked well upon if known or reported by national and international news media. The Feds are seriously, read vastly, outnumbered and woefully under equipped. The Feds have but a very few BMP light armored vehicles and a few captured BTR vehicles, almost no artillery and zero air assets. They do have excellent morale and do believe strongly in their cause.

Strategically, I don’t know. I’m not bad at tactics, being just a lowly veteran sergeant, but from what I see Kiev is in the position of having to attack and attack strongly on 23 and 24 May. Their masters are adamant that they solve ‘this problem’ before the election scheduled for 25 May. I have no doubts that at least some, not all but some, a goodly number of ‘some’, of the Federalists will fight to the end to hold their very few strategic locations.

In reality they have no other option, either fight to the death or be killed after the fact. Is Kiev and their international backers and masters willing to do the massive fighting this will entail in civilian areas and with the very large civilian casualties this act will entail? I think so. Will Russia intervene? I don’t know and conjecture is useless on whatever actions Russia may or may not take.

Only time will tell how this unfolding tragedy will end, but my thoughts are that Ukraine as it was last October is dead and gone, never to arise again as we knew it.

(To be continued)

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/