One Map That Explains the Dangerous Saudi-Iranian Conflict

Guest Post by Jon Schwarz

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia executed Shiite Muslim cleric Nimr al-Nimr on Saturday. Hours later, Iranian protestors set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran. On Sunday, the Saudi government, which considers itself the guardian of Sunni Islam, cut diplomatic ties with Iran, which is a Shiite Muslim theocracy.

To explain what’s going on, the New York Times provided a primer on the difference between Sunni and Shiite Islam, informing us that “a schism emerged after the death of the Prophet Muhammad in 632” — i.e., 1,383 years ago.

But to the degree that the current crisis has anything to do with religion, it’s much less about whether Abu Bakr or Ali was Muhammad’s rightful successor and much more about who’s going to control something more concrete right now: oil.

In fact, much of the conflict can be explained by a fascinating map created by M.R. Izady, a cartographer and adjunct master professor at the U.S. Air Force Special Operations School/Joint Special Operations University in Florida.

What the map shows is that, due to a peculiar correlation of religious history and anaerobic decomposition of plankton, almost all the Persian Gulf’s fossil fuels are located underneath Shiites. This is true even in Sunni Saudi Arabia, where the major oil fields are in the Eastern Province, which has a majority Shiite population.

As a result, one of the Saudi royal family’s deepest fears is that one day Saudi Shiites will secede, with their oil, and ally with Shiite Iran.

This fear has only grown since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq overturned Saddam Hussein’s minority Sunni regime, and empowered the pro-Iranian Shiite majority. Nimr himself said in 2009 that Saudi Shiites would call for secession if the Saudi government didn’t improve its treatment of them.

shia-oil-cropped-2

The map shows religious populations in the Middle East and proven developed oil and gas reserves. Click to view the full map of the wider region. The dark green areas are predominantly Shiite; light green predominantly Sunni; and purple predominantly Wahhabi/Salafi, a branch of Sunnis. The black and red areas represent oil and gas deposits, respectively.

Source: Dr. Michael Izady at Columbia University, Gulf2000, New York

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“Divine Vengeance Will Befall Saudi Arabia,” Iran Warns, As Global Outcry Over Execution Grows

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“The unjustly spilled blood of this oppressed martyr will no doubt soon show its effect and divine vengeance will befall Saudi politicians.”

That rather ominous quote is from Ayatollah Khamenei who was decidedly upset with Saudi Arabia’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

The Sheikh – who died along with three other Shiites and dozens of suspected al-Qaeda operatives in the largest mass execution carried out by Riyadh in 25 years – was a leading voice in Saudi Arabia’s anti-government movement. He stood accused of sedition, disobedience and bearing arms for his role in the protests which shook the kingdom’s Eastern Province during the Arab Spring.

News of al-Nimr’s death spread through the Muslim world like wildfire on Saturday as protests broke out from Bahrain to Pakistan.

Here’s the sequence of events courtesy of The Guardian:

  • Saudi Arabia announced it had executed 47 people for terrorism, including the prominent Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.
  • Iranian government and religious leaders say killing of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr will have serious repercussions.
  • The Shia cleric’s brother calls for calm.
  • Protests in Bahrain turn violent and tear gas is used on those demonstrating.
  • Protests break out in Shia areas of Saudi Arabia, Indian-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan while a prominent Iraqi cleric calls for demonstrations in Gulf countries.
  • Reprieve, Human Rights Watch and various other campaign groups condemn the executions.
  • Fresh concerns are raised for Nimr’s nephew, Ali Mohammed al-Nimr, despite his name not appearing on the executed list.

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