Why do countries go to war?
- One or both countries are led by maniacs (Hitler, Stalin, Tojo)
- Opposing political systems (Capitalism, Communism)
- Necessity for resources or land (Japan, Germany)
- Accident due to treaties & alliances (WWI)
- Seccession or internal political issues (Revolutionary War, Civil War)
China is tired of playing second fiddle to the U.S. They are already kicking our asses economically. They have us by the balls as they own $900 billion of our debt. We need to issue $1.5 trillion of new debt every year for the next 5 years. We need the Chinese to buy a good chunk of this debt. The Chinese know that. They also know that Bernanke is trying to screw them by devaluing the USD.
They are converting their USD into hard assets. They are buying up natural resouces like mines and oil wells. They are signing deals with Iran, Venezuela, and African nations to tie up oil resources. They are buying gold. They have most of the rare earths in the world and aren’t sharing. Now it seems they are using those USD to build missiles and other high tech military hardware.
The US Navy revolves around their 11 aircraft carriers. We are in the process of building 3 new aircraft carriers at a cost of $14 billion each. The Chinese have perfected a new missile that will put these outmoded WWII antiques at the bottom of the sea. The US is preparing for the last war. China is preparing for cyber war using satellites, computer hackers, and high tech missiles.
China and the US both need oil. The supplies of oil are depleting. Economic tensions are already high. As oil becomes more precious, the US and China will be competing for the same supply sources. Any economic collapse experienced by either country will significantly increase tensions between the countries. These issues are a powder-keg and both countries will be lighting matches. I expect armed conflict with China to commence between 2015 and 2020, as would be expected in the Fourth Turning Crisis. World War erupted 12 years after the onset of the last Fourth Turning. A similar scenario would result in major war around the year 2017. It is our destiny.
China preparing for armed conflict ‘in every direction’
China is preparing for conflict ‘in every direction’, the defence minister said on Wednesday in remarks that threaten to overshadow a visit to Beijing by his US counterpart next month.
By Peter Foster, Beijing 1:30PM GMT 29 Dec 2010
“In the coming five years, our military will push forward preparations for military conflict in every strategic direction,” said Liang Guanglie in an interview published by several state-backed newspapers in China. “We may be living in peaceful times, but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away,” Mr Liang added.
China repeatedly says it is planning a “peaceful rise” but the recent pace and scale of its military modernisation has alarmed many of its neighbours in the Asia-Pacific, including Japan which described China’s military build-up as a “global concern” this month.
Mr Liang’s remarks come at a time of increasingly difficult relations between the Chinese and US armed forces which a three-day visit by his counterpart Robert Gates is intended to address. A year ago China froze substantive military relations in protest at US arms sales to Taiwan and relations deteriorated further this summer when China objected to US plans to deploy one of its nuclear supercarriers, the USS George Washington, into the Yellow Sea off the Korean peninsula.
China also announced this month that it was preparing to launch its own aircraft carrier next year in a signal that China is determined to punch its weight as a rising superpower. The news came a year earlier than many US defence analysts had predicted.
China is also working on a “carrier-killing” ballistic missile that could sink US carriers from afar, fundamentally reordering the balance of power in a region that has been dominated by the US since the end of the Second World War.
Analysts remain divided over whether China is initiating an Asian arms race. Even allowing for undeclared spending, China’s annual defence budget is still less than one-sixth of America’s $663bn a year, or less than half the US figure when expressed as a percentage of GDP.
However in a speech earlier this year Mr Gates warned that China’s new weapons, including its carrier-killing missile, “threaten America’s primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific”, underscoring the difficulties that lie ahead as China and the US seek to contain growing strategic frictions.
As China modernises, Mr Liang pledged that its armed forces would also increasingly use homegrown Chinese technology, which analysts say still lags behind Western technology even as China races to catch up.
“The modernisation of the Chinese military cannot depend on others, and cannot be bought,” Mr Liang added, “In the next five years, our economy and society will develop faster, boosting comprehensive national power. We will take the opportunity and speed up modernisation of the military.”
Chinese missile shifts power in Pacific
By Kathrin Hille in Beijing
Published: December 28 2010 11:58 | Last updated: December 28 2010 11:58
A new Chinese anti-ship missile that will significantly alter the balance of military power in the Pacific is now operational, according to a senior US commander.
Admiral Robert Willard, the top US commander in the Pacific, said the Chinese ballistic missile, which was designed to threaten US aircraft carriers in the region, had reached “initial operational capability”.
The US and other countries in the Pacific region are increasingly concerned at the speed with which China is developing its naval power. Japan, for example, recently decided to refocus its military on the potential threat from China.
“So now we know – China’s [anti-ship ballistic missile] is no longer aspirational,” Andrew Erickson, an expert on the Chinese military at the US Naval War College, said in response to Adm Willard’s comments to the Asahi newspaper.
Defence analysts have called the Dongfeng 21 D missile a “game changer” since it could force US aircraft carriers to stay away from waters where China does not want to see them. These include the Taiwan Strait where a potential conflict could develop over the self-ruled island which China claims.
The land-based missile is designed to target and track aircraft carrier groups with the help of satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles and over-the-horizon radar. Aircraft carriers and their accompanying ships are unable to defend themselves against such a threat.
Aware of the missile’s development, the Pentagon has already started considering ways to counter the new threat, including a new concept for more closely integrated navy and air force operations.
Robert Gates, US defence secretary, said in September, the development of such a missile would force the Pentagon to rethink the way carriers were deployed.
“If the Chinese or somebody else has a highly accurate anti-ship cruise or ballistic missile that can take out a carrier at hundreds of miles of ranges and therefore in Asia puts us back behind the second island chain, how then do you use carriers differently in the future?” Mr Gates asked.
The second chain of islands runs from the Bonins along the Marianas, Guam and Palau, forming a north-south line east of Japan and the Philippines. This line defines what China sees as its “near seas” – waters in which the US navy now frequently operates and are home to US naval bases and allies such as Japan and South Korea.
Adm Willard noted this year that China’s anti-ship ballistic missile was undergoing extensive testing and was close to deployment. Observers believe China started production of missile motors last year and that the Chinese military is preparing a nuclear missile base in the southern city of Shaoguan for their deployment.
Defence analysts have also linked several missile flight tests this year to the new weapon but no conclusive evidence has been available to date.
Adm Willard’s latest comments appear to remove any doubts. The term “initial operational capability” as used by the Pentagon indicates that some military units have started deployment of the weapon and are capable of using it.
Mr Erickson said: “Beijing has successfully developed, tested, and deployed the world’s first weapons system capable of targeting a moving carrier strike group from long-range, land-based mobile launchers.” .
Adm Willard said the new Chinese weapon was still not fully-operational and would probably undergo testing for “several more years”. The key remaining step is a comprehensive test of the entire system at sea, which is much more difficult than test flights over land.
China also needs to deploy more satellites to ensure seamless tracking of a moving target at sea. But defence experts warn that the weapon would immediately be a threat to US carriers because China could make up for a lack in accuracy by launching larger numbers of missiles.
Smokey/SSS – notice how the minnows have disappeared since 3 sharks are circling? Except for Punk. His balls are biGger than his brains but you gotta hand it to him for being a fighter.
Punk is to honorable to do that, Shit stain Smokey. I don’t post as other people, let alone to declare my own victory, as if I would need to, what with it being so obvious to even LLPOH.
SSS——I’d bet serious money that your hunch is correct. I notice Stuck has not ventured forward with his picture. My apologies to Stuck if I was duped by an impostor and blasted Stuck in response.
Keep believing Smokey. Stuck declared you DOA. Accept your fate as a debater on par with Crazy Canuck.
Admin – you are like the boxer running around the ring with blood all over his face, both eyes swollen shut, and split lips and cheeks streaming blood shouting “I won I won” while waiting for the decision. You aren’t fooling anyone. You got an ass whupping and the judges aren’t gonna be fooled by your signifying.
LLPOH
Let me summarize your position on war with China. It can’t happen because it can’t. I’m overwhelmed by the tremendous thought process that went into your viewpoint.
“That was Stuck. I know his IP address.” —-I’ll take your word just as soon as Stuck verifies it with his smiling picture beside him.
Administrator—-With all respect due Stuck, exactly when was it that he became final arbiter of this site? I cooked your ass worse than you have EVER been scalded in your entire life. There is honor in admitting your defeat like a man and getting on with your life. Just be thankful I don’t decide to burn you every day, because we both know I could.
The real question is whether this thread can reach 200, with 180 of the comments related to who won the debate.
With all respect due Stuck, exactly when was it that he became final arbiter of this site?
As an open minded and impartial observer…. About the time he arbitrated my foot up your ass.
Admin – my position is that there won’t be war because it isn’t in the interest of either party. Simple yet compeeling argument. It is more likely we would take Canada’s oil sands. Way more likely.
Just because you don’t like a simple straight-forward response doesn’t mean it is wrong.
Don’t you have some wounds to lick?
War doesn’t have to be in the best interests of both parties. All it takes are miscalculations, economic desperation, a crazy leader, alliances, treaties, or 50 other possibilities. “Simple” response is about right.
Admin – your argument is therefore that they won’t behave rationally. Great.
Was it rational for Yamamoto to attack the US Navy at Pearl Harbor? He was educated at Harvard.
Was it rational for Hitler to attack the Soviet Union?
Didn’t China attack the US during the Korean War? Was that rational?
Was it rational for Bush to invade Iraq?
Was it rational for the South to secede from the Union?
Was it rational for a bunch of farmers with muskets to take on British regulars?
War is not rational, logical, or beneficial. But it still seems to happen.
I’m calling it a night. I’m not finished with any of you losers, which does NOT include llpoh and SSS. We will find out the truth from the REAL Stuck tomorrow. I will either apologize to him for my being duped by an impostor, or I will blister him if he was actually the duplicitous judge of this sham decision. Until later…….
Admin – my point is that if they do not act rationally then it is impossible to predict anything they might do.
LLPOH
You made my point for me. War is not rational. Shit happens.
All the Stuck posts above are mine. The reason I did not log on with my picture is that it would be a DOUBLY unfair advantage. First, there is my superior intellect (great call there, Jim!). Second, you homos — especially Smokey — would be too enraputured by my beauty to present a reasonable argument …. oh wait, that didn’t work out as planned either.
I AM the Judge, Jury, and Executioner because I HAVE DECLARED IT to be so. Look, if some invisible dude in the sky can create the entire fucking universe simply by singing a Beatles song, “Let it be”, … then I can damn well declare myself the TBP debate arbiter. Let it be!
Regarding my supposed flip-flop. It seems both friend and foe are confused. Why?? There are TWO arguments brewing here.
Argument 1: Are in in Iraq and Afghanistan NOW … with oil being being one of the main reasons? Yes!!! The fact of the matter — all bullshit aside — is that both strategic and tactical battle plans to secure mideast oil, by force, have been part of military planning FOR DECADES! To deny that is to simply deny facts as plain as the nose on your face — or, according to Smokey, the massive cock in his pants.
Argument 2: Will we attack China IN THE FUTURE because of oil? “No!” — for reasons afore mentioned, the chief ones being that China is massive and powerful and they can “win” without firing a shot.. Again, we prefer to kick the shit out of countries like Grenada.
Now, although I have declared upon myself Godlike powers to Judge you pathetic weenies on the wrong side of the fence — I will admit that I lack God’s ability to see the future. Jim’s scenario COULD come to pass. We live in dangerous times. We live in unique times. Calling on historical comparisons makes little sense in this case.
Lastly, now that I have sufficiently kissed everybody’s ass I expect only thumbs up votes from everyone. I would like to beat the 150+ I have in the Featured Article. Let it be.
The whole debate is irrelevant. It doesn’t matter if there is a shooting war with the Chinese or not.
The Chinese are TOAST. So is the FSofA.
RE
Admin
Did anyone bring up the fact that china is building nuclear power plants up to wazoo? And seems to be preparing for peak oil? Brought up the possibility that they won’t have the same dependency on oil that we do, and won’t have the same need to go to war that we will. I have scanned the comments and didn’t see anything…
That would have been the argument I would have chosen….
Punk
China is doing everything possible to insure they have enough energy supplies. They are looking decades ahead. I don’t think nuclear will alleviate their oil needs.
Just wanted to make sure all your bases were covered…. I think there is a path through the near future that does not lead to WWIII, but it is the width of a knifes edge.
Stuck——That is easily the biggest, pussiest cop-out in the history of this blog. Take a stand, you pathetic, equivocating cur. If you are going to diss me on this board, you WILL face the music like the rest of them. You want it both ways, like a fucking transvestite. Face the facts, Stuck. You lock ass with me on this board, and you will take your medicine like the rest of them. I will show you no mercy. To paraphrase probably the greatest statesman in the history of this country—-“Either you’re with me or against me. Bring it on!”
When I finish with you bitchez, it will be “Mission Accomplished “.
I have taken many stands in my life. So have you. Choosing whether or not we got to war with China is the least of my concern. Being wishy-washy is my right as an Amurican.
These are the stands that matter. Many have come to pass. Some still await …
==================================================================
Here I stand so shaky, as I begin to walk
Learning from Mom, learning to talk.
The examples I see will shape my way
The decisions I make, will shape my day.
Here I stand to begin, in life’s early hour
I’ll test the limits, I’ll test my power.
In the terrible twos, the decisions to come
Are made by the hand, and shaped by Mom.
—————————————————
Here I stand at the dawn, the edge of the day
With decisions to make and prices to pay.
The choice is mine and mine to make
The decisions I chose will make or break.
Here I stand a teen in the prime of life
A time of joy, a time of strife.
I stand at the crossroad as I start these years.
There is the road of honor, the road of tears.
—————————————————-
Here I stand to chose again and again.
Do I chose to lose or do I chose win.
One road I see will cause me pain.
The other I see will grant me gain.
Here I stand at a crossroad, to chose this hour
The choice I make is in my power.
To chose the wrong or chose the right
I will set my course, I will set my plight.
—————————————————-
Here I stand as I marry, the Love of my life
Become one with her, to be my wife.
The vows we say, the promise we make
Are made forever, we will not break.
Here I stand by my Love, our daughter’s first hour
Now Mother and Father, with our delicate flower.
The example she sees, the example I live
Is the greatest gift, a Father can give.
————————————————
Here I stand at the bedside, my mother’s last hour.
She withstood the storms, of time and its power.
Though times were rough, she withstood the test
Her love sustained me, she gave me her best
Here I stand in awe of the example she set
Of truth and honor, I’m in her debt.
The decisions she made were examples to me
Helped mold my life, in what I could be.
—————————————————–
Here I stand as the evening, of life draws near
I’ve tried to follow the paths found dear
Paths of love and honor, from examples I see
From those before me, that I strive to be.
Here I stand did I, make the right choice?
Did I follow the loud or the still small voice?
For I now understand, the power of love
It’s the power given by the God above.
————————————————
Here I stand to survey my life today
I began and will end, on the edge of the day.
The choices I made, He was always near
His Grace and Mercy has brought me here.
Now I kneel in His presence the race is run
His grace has sustained me, the journey is done.
He brought me through, the dusk, the night
To a brand new day, what a wonderful sight
Stucky
I’m speechless.
Punk and Admin
Nuclear power is a Godsend, sitting right in front of our faces to not only guarantee the lights won’t ever go out in the looming energy crisis, but pick up the slack if electric car technology improves and catches the public’s fancy. THAT will solve a helluva lot of our insatiable demand for oil. And prevent an extrordinarily remote war with China over oil. Ha, I win.
SSS
Only 4 more to 200. I am a raging bull on nuclear power. If we could build thousands of small nuclear reactors, get the price of Chevy Volt like vehicles down to $25,000, and expand the usage of natural gas for truck and bus fleets, we could extend our longevity and reduce the chance for war with China. Of course they have all the rare earth elements we need to create the batteries for our cars. War it is. Ha, I win.
#197
I’m thinking about 100 triple-reactor giants like the 3,900 megawatt plant at Palo Verde, most of which would be collocated with the existing 104 nuke plants. Security and transmission add on costs would be minimized.
Security and transmission lines at “thousands of small nuclear reactors” might be problematic and expensive (more jobs created for sure, though). Plus you’d probably commit suicide once you saw the 1,000th lawsuit filed by the Sierra Club or Wilderness Society. I certaintly wouldn’t want to see that happen.
Rare earth issue is a player which would likely go away once we kicked the environmentalists to the curb and get serious about seriously restarting mining operations here in the U.S. Arizona alone is an absolute gold mine, literally and figuratively, of mineral wealth. Gold, silver, molybdenum, and rare earth minerals are all by-products of copper mining. There are huge deposits of uranium ore in northern Arizona being blocked by the tree-huggers because the deposits are “near” (meaning 30 fucking miles south of) the Grand Canyon.
Odds of war with China now stand at 1 quadrillion to 1 and shrinking faster than your debt clock. I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
SSS—–Odds of war are closer to a google to one than a quadrillion to one. War with China equals the end of mankind on this planet.
Bad hair day guys-on-the-wrong-side-of-the-fence? I figured you would BLAST me for being a wishy-washy flip flopper. Ya’ll wiened out on me!
The next post willbe #200. I am sure you are aware of Stuckys Rule of 200. The 200th poster has the final say on the matter AND is automatically declared the winner,
Who will it be?
I win.
There remains quite a bit of dispute as to whether our current economic collapse will eventually lead to a full scale confrontation and War with the Chinese. There is also quite a bit of argument over how that war might be fought, and what weapons might or might not work. Let’s take a closer look at all these possibilities.
First let us set up the likely provocation for War, which would be a Naval Blockade of China, similar to the Naval Blockade of Japan prior to Japan Bombing Pearl Harbor. The reason for this Blockade would be that the FSofA was having trouble getting enough Oil to keep its basic infrastructure of transportation going. The Chinese would be accused of being “Energy Pigs”, using Oil we need to keep food moving to run their Factories. They would also be blamed for the fact J6P is unemployed.
The Chinese try to do an End Run around the Blockade by building a Pipeline across the Himalayas, but sadly each time they complete a section, it is hit by cruise missiles and drone aircraft. So far being outclassed in the techno-war, the Chinese rev up their 2nd generation Dong Feng v2.0 Missiles to take out the Carriers and their associated Battle Groups. Miraculously though, Aegis anti-missile missiles have a 100% success rate at knocking these out of the sky before they send any ships down to the bottom of Davey Jones Locker.
The Chinese are really depressed, but they aren’t suicidal so they elect not to send nukes raining down on FSofA Big Shitties. Neither are they ready to give up though, so they elect to set off a few massive EMP blasts knocking out all communications and electronics around the world. Prior to doing this they build a MASSIVE fleet of Sailboats about 10 million of them each with 4 sailors aboard from the People’s Navy. Also on board are 10 cruise missiles with a range of about 50 miles. The electronic guidance packages for these are all kept in Faraday Cages until just before use when they get plugged into the missile before firing.
The FSofA has also wisely hardened their fighter jets against an EMP, so they sortie out to try and sink the entire fleet of 10 million sailboats. The 1000 or so jets they put up into the air to do this each have to sink 10,000 boats before they get close enough to start firing their missiles. Needless to say, the Chinese will put up at least a few aircraft to slow them down some and provide cover for the sailboats.
Eventually, most of the sailboats get sunk but enough get through to sink the Carrier Groups. The Chinese break the blockade, and Tanker ships start making it to Chinese ports again. The FSofA is now starving of Oil again, so they adopt the tactics of the Chinese and buid their own massive fleet of Sailboats armed with cruise missiles, except this time instead of blockading around China, they go and blockade around the Gulf of Hormuz. To break up this blockade, the Chinese now build another fleet of Sailboats to go and engage the FSofA armada mano a mano, finally, with superior numbers the Chinese win the day, commandeering all the remaining Oil in the Middle East.
Despite now having all the Oil though, the Chinese are still starving because their Ag Land is so polluted and their water supply is running thin. So they decide they need to now mount an Invasionary force to overrun the FSofA and take all the Ag Land in the Midwest. They build still more numerous Transport ships which run on Bunker fuel, since they now have a source of Oil. However, having advance warning they are on the way, the FSof A mines all the harbors and beaches from Baja to Nome. They also drop cruise missile launching sites every 100 miles or so up the coast. Soon as any Chinese ships get close enough to see through the spyglass, they get sent down to Davey Jones Locker.
End result here is of course that neither side wins, but both sides will kill off plenty of people this way. They don’t go nuclear, for the same reason we never went nuclear with the Ruskies, neither side is completely suicidal. On both sides of the pond, the countries will continue to depopulate even after a truce is finally signed.
There are plenty of other scenarios also, the Chinese could suit up a 100M man army and march them across the Himalayas on foot, with enough Air support to keep FSofA jets from taking them all out with strafing runs before they make it to the Iranian border. They form an alliance with the Ruskies, who then roll in tanks from the north, finally overrunning FSofA expeditionary forces before taking over all of the middle east as an Occupying Army. Final result remains basically the same though, the Chinese stay over there, we stay here and we all gradually die off. The last of the easily accessible Oil gets used up, and whoever is left standing learns to live in a lower available energy world.
To say that it is NEVER going to happen that the Chinese and the FSofA will get into a resource war over the remaining Oil is simply foolish though. When either society begins to be starved of Oil and their basic infrastructure starts to fail as a result, they will HAVE to go to war. If two tribes are sharing the same Watering Hole, and both of them are starting to die of thirst, one tribe is going to try to kill off the other tribe so they will have enough water. Ideally you would like to kill off EVERYONE in the other tribe and have it ALL to yourself, but even if you just kill off half of each tribe there will then be enough for the remaining people for a while.
People here in the FSofA will not just sit around waiting to die while the Chinese buy up all the Oil. They will DEMAND an Embargo, they will DEMAND we take the Oil from the Middle East. The Chinese will be FORCED to respond. That is the nature of a resource war.
RE
Stucky
You stole that Rule of 200 from me!!!! Thief. I made that rule up a while back on a post (Alzheimer’s is kicking in and keeping me from remembering which one) that ran to 206 comments. Admin can back me up, because I pimped his ass on a nonsensical comment (comment #200) I made to him just so I could claim #200 and win the debate. A warrant for your arrest will arrive tomorrow.
Smokey
Yes, you won. RE would have won had he not been typing one of his lengthly Disneyland scenarios on a war with China. BTW, may I share in the fruits of victory for my inputs which prompted many thoughtful comments such as, “SSS, isn’t it time for your next nap?”
Stuck – your right to be wishy-washy? Just when did you drop dick and grow a vagina? Pick a side, man up, and don’t back down no matter how wrong you are. It works for Punk and tha Admin, why not you?
llpoh—–Stuck and I from here on are bitter adversaries for life.
SSS—–You and I will savor the flavor of this sweet landslide for many months ahead. We both vanquished all opposition with breathtaking ease.
Smokey. I have a feeling you have many adversaries for life — on your own block. Am I correct in that assumption?
We both vanquished all opposition with breathtaking ease. -Smokey
Oh sweet Jebus Don Cocksyote is tilting at windmills again.
SSS—-In fact , when llpoh announced yesterday, during this one-sided blowout, the razor thin score of 120-110 , he nearly lost a life long ally. Until I realized he was only trying to toss a lifeline, a glimmer of false hope, to our pathetic opponents to continue with their ass whipping.
Come on SSS, admit it. You enjoy the Disneyland Stories 🙂
For people who don’t grasp that I write stuff like this for fun not to be serious, please get a clue. You have to read the subtext of a Disneyland story, its a parable.
RE
I have trodden on your sacrococcygeal fistula so often Smokey you have taken to wrapping your skeered self in plastic sheets before logging onto TBP. You arent even an adversary at this point your a canine that wets on itself when its master scolds it.
Smokey a score of 120 means you won every round. The only reason I didn’t deem it a knockout was thet they didn’t have the sense to fall down.
llpoh—-You are a much better judge than Stuck.
RE
I thought you were joking. I admit I’m just getting used to your sense of humor, which is why I threw in the Disneyland comment. Testing the waters. When you first started posting on this site, you were tighter than a tick’s ass. Same may apply to me. A little satire and self-deprecating sense of humor always makes for a more entertaining ………….. discussion.
War, in another perspective, serves to connect us all together. Do realise that. It is one way our alliances are formed.
Wasp wins the award for latest comment on a two month old post.
USA is a cancer is will burn out with in a hundred years. it’s walking dead body.
China will already be around. our TAO guides us across darkness into day light.
all US has is freedom to buy more things that fill up their garage.
Yeah, but when is the last time china has won a war in the first place… i dont think any of us can even recall that
The “war” China will win not be military, but rather economic/monetary. Peking is light years smarter than Washington.
19 month-old thread? China can suck my ass.