FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART ONE

97 comments

Posted on 9th February 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

“Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

  • Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
  • Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
  • Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
  • Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction” 

 The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

When you read pertinent passages from Strauss & Howe’s prophetic assessment of history from a generational perspective, eighteen years after its publication and seven years into the Crisis they forecasted with uncanny accuracy, you find yourself shaking your head and appreciating their visionary generational appraisal of antiquity. Those who scorn The Fourth Turning either haven’t read it, are ignorant of the cyclical nature of history, blindly believe in never ending human progress, or their salary is dependent upon not acknowledging the truth. A year consists of four seasons – Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter. A long human life of 80 years consists of four phases – childhood, young adulthood, mid-life, and old age. Human beings tend to associate themselves with the cohort born within the roughly 20 year period that makes up one phase of life.

Members of a generation share an age location in history, tend to share some common beliefs and behaviors, including basic attitudes about risk taking, culture and values, civic engagement, family life, and tend to have a sense of common perceived membership in that generation. The generational attitudes, moods, leaders, and events that occur during recurring 80 year cycles drive the pathway of history. Strauss & Howe have been able to document the Turnings of Anglo-American history back to 1435. Like the seasons in a year, there have been cyclical turnings every twenty years or so for centuries. They can be described as High (Spring), Awakening (Summer), Unraveling (Fall), Crisis (Winter). Each turning is a reflection of generational interactions, moods, and attitudes. We are now seven years into a Crisis that will likely not climax until the late 2020’s.

Saeculum (climax year) Crisis (Full Era) Time from one Crisis climax to next Crisis climax
Revolutionary (1781) American Revolution (1773–1794)
Civil War (1863) Civil War (1860–1865) 82 years
Great Power (1944) Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946) 81 years
Millennial (2025?) Global Financial Crisis (2008–2029?) 81 years?

The beginning of the new year has seen the usual avalanche of 2015 forecasts from mainstream media pundits, Wall Street gurus, Ivy League economists, journalists and bloggers. Most are paid to produce forecasts which promote their employer’s agenda; convince readers to buy their investment products, newsletters, or service; propagandize the government storyline; or validate their Ivy League academic theories. Those in the employ of the Deep State always produce forecasts of economic growth, positive developments, and never ending progress. They’ve never seen a recession coming, the stock market declining, or war looming. None of these people saw the 2008 Financial Crisis coming. They all believe 2015 will be a great year. They are narrow minded linear thinkers who are willfully ignorant of history or purposefully peddling propaganda for a paycheck.

Making annual forecasts in the midst of a 20 year Fourth Turning Crisis is rather pointless. Predicting improvement or progress in the midst of a Crisis is nothing but a futile exercise in mental masturbation. Fourth Turnings, like a protracted, brutal, frigid, gloomy, stormy winter of discontent, may have an occasional let up in intensity, but will rapidly revert back to turbulence, danger, and volatility. When I wrote Fourth Turning Accelerating in June of last year, I made the case that core elements of this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – were combining to provide an impetus to the next dire phase of this relentless blizzard of pain, suffering, chaos and war.

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

Putting forecasting into perspective during Fourth Turnings is easy when you have a grasp on history. Imagine there were pundits pontificating on CNBC or CNN in 1936, the seventh year of the Great Depression Crisis or 1780, the seventh year of the American Revolution Crisis. Most historians refer to the Great Depression as the period from the Great Crash of 1929 until our entry into World War II in 1941. Annual forecasts of improvement would be meaningless to people living through this brutal period in our history.

If Jim Cramer was assessing the period from 1934 through 1936 on his daily radio show, he would have been gushing about GDP growth of 10.8%, 8.9% and 12.9%. He would have been effusive about the 300% surge in the Dow Jones Index from the 1933 low to the 1936 high. CNN would be doing special reports about the tremendous success of New Deal programs, as Federal spending and handouts accounted for the entire surge in GDP. But, in reality the average American continued to struggle to survive, as unemployment ranged between 17% and 22% during this time and only the rich owned stocks. Another 10 years of hardship, war, and death on a grand scale awaited them. Perspective and context are essential when attempting to assess periods in history. You get no context from the entertainers passing for journalists in today’s world.

The beginning of 1780 saw Washington and his troops surviving the harshest winter of the 18th Century in Morristown, NJ as the 5th year of war still left the outcome highly in doubt. CNN would have blamed the polar vortex for the temporary lull in patriot fortunes. Defeats in battles against the British in South Carolina and the uncovering of Benedict Arnold’s plot to surrender West Point to the British would have been spun as minor setbacks. Cornwallis’ surrender at Yorktown was almost two years away. The Articles of Confederation hadn’t yet been signed and the U.S. Constitution wouldn’t be signed until 1787. The Crisis wouldn’t end for another fourteen years, in 1794.

Fourth Turnings have their own rhythm and pace. The reactions to events and mood changes of generational cohorts interact to provide the dynamic that drives Fourth Turnings. The specific events are not foreseeable but human weaknesses, faults, flaws, failings, strengths, intellect, and emotions are consistent across the ages. Human nature does not change, therefore it is predictable. Those who wish for this Fourth Turning to accelerate and get to the climax sooner may want to rethink their desire. The Civil War Crisis was accelerated because all parties were intransigent and unwilling to compromise or pause. The result was 700,000 Americans killed in four years, representing 5% of the entire male population. This Fourth Turning could be accelerated with the push of a button and millions killed in an instant. I don’t think anyone wants that kind of climax. We are entering a banquet of consequences where our choices will make a difference.

“A Fourth Turning harnesses the seasons of life to bring about a renewal in the seasons of time. In so doing, it provides passage through the great discontinuities of history and closes the full circle of the saeculum. The Fourth Turning is when the Spirit of America reappears, rousing courage and fortitude from the people. History is seasonal, but its outcomes are not foreordained. Much will depend on how tall we stand in the trials to come.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The Shadow of Crisis

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Just as you can’t turn the clock back to the glorious warm days of Summer or the delightfully pleasant cool days of Fall, the dark, foreboding, bitter days of Winter will bring forth raging blizzards, dangerous sub-zero temperatures, and vicious gale force winds. And there is no way to avoid, sidestep, or escape the trials and tribulations which will sweep away the existing social order and replace it with something better or possibly far worse. There are no guarantees this Crisis will resolve itself in a positive manner. The spark that catalyzed the Crisis mood in 2008 was the global financial implosion caused by Wall Street bankers committing the greatest control fraud in world history, corrupt captured politicians’ spineless failure to address the nation’s spending and debt problems, and the Federal Reserve creating a housing and stock bubble through their loose monetary policies and complete failure to regulate the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks.

The inability of the linear thinking ruling class to acknowledge the seriousness of our current circumstances and the implications of the era of depression and violence the country is about to experience can be witnessed on a daily basis by listening to mainstream media talking heads or politicians of all stripes who bloviate about economic improvement and progress just ahead. Could there be a better example of myopia, delusion and willful ignorance than the theme and opening line of Obama’s State of the Union speech:

“THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS PASSED”

Do Obama and his advisors actually believe this Crisis is over? Or is he purposely misleading the American people about the seriousness of our circumstances because he has been instructed to do so by the men who really pull the levers of this country – Wall Street bankers, shadowy billionaires, and the military industrial complex. If the Crisis has passed, why has the 30 year bond yield fallen to an all-time low? Why does the Fed maintain an emergency stance by continuing to keep interest rates at 0% if the economy is really growing at over 4%, unemployment has really fallen from 10% to 5.7%, corporate profits are at all-time highs, and the stock market has risen by 200% to record highs?

In Part Two of this article I’ll prove the shadow of crisis has not passed, and the core elements of Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – get worse by the hour.

97 Comments
  1. Administrator says:

    This is part one of a four part article.

    I’ll be posting one part per day this week.

     

    9th February 2015 at 9:43 pm

  2. Jim says:

    I agree with the macro idea of the turning. Where I become hesitant is when we start naming dates/years, etc. This was and is the mistake of of the Glenn Becks, Jim Kunstler, and others who in general are good at describing the problem but then they take it one step too far and say when things are going to happen and as we all know the have been spectacularly wrong. My belief is that the turning will take unexpected detours and paths and we may be well into it and not even know it until it has happened. We are living in one weird and surreal time.

     

    9th February 2015 at 9:50 pm

  3. llpoh says:

    Admin – this is the stuff that brought me to this site, and it is why I keep hanging around. Everything else is fluff. You are doing something good.

    But the posters here need to pitch in. We need more commentary about what is really happening in the world, and what we both individually and en masse can do to prepare for what comes. There are many here that can add to the commentary and debate.

    Re the above, you have very clearly laid out the case for the cyclical nature of things, and it is a tremendous bit of writing. I am not a true believer in the timings, but I am beginning to understand the basic pattern.

    One thing I see as different this time from previous is that there are better channels of communication, at least for the moment. The internet in particular, until and if it is closed down, offers a means of communication. In 1920, there were very few channels indeed.

    Vastly more folks, as a percentage, today have been brainwashed than say in 1920. Those folks were not so exposed to the array of media that has been unleashed upon today’s populous. A great many back then were serfs, working to survive day to day. They would have thought little about their condition, I suspect, as there were no other options, and they were very busy indeed trying to survive.

    Today, the serfs have allowed themselves to be convinced they are not serfs. Bread and circuses is the order of the day. They are in effect a cargo cult of sorts – they look up in awe as the manna from heaven falls down upon them, increasingly convinced that it is their birthright, and that God and country will take care of them. They do not understand the force that is bearing down upon them. and unlike those in the 1920’s, a very large percentage do not have the know-how or the life skills to allow them to survive, much less thrive, in an economic catastrophe.

    And I see that as perhaps the biggest threat. How will perhaps hundreds of millions of Americans survive when the free stuff stops flowing in, when the productive can no longer keep feeding them. The productive very well may have trouble feeding themselves. Perhaps 250 million Americans really do not understand, or are incapable of, the activities that may be required to survive.

    My grandfather shovelled coal for a dime a day in the depression, going house to house. My father drove a tractor twelve hours a night at the age of 12 in order to survive. He was on his own, by and large, from the age of 9. Who today can do such things? Perhaps Hardscrabble’s family. Perhaps Billy’s. but there will be tens and hundreds of millions that will fall hard when the day comes. The age of entitlement will end, and people will not have the skills, the reasoning, the physical capacity, or the resources to come out of the crisis unscathed.

    Thanks again for this extraordinary piece.

    And I can but encourage TBPers to get on board and lift these articles by adding their thoughts and experiences.

     

    9th February 2015 at 10:54 pm

  4. llpoh says:

    The possibility of the coming crisis – it need not be a certainty – is why I forever argue re the need for unfettered access to guns. Over and over I hear from anti-gun folks that these things cannot happen here. That the deaths caused by guns each year is reason they should be eliminated from society.

    I am appalled by the number of gun deaths in the US each year – around 30,000 by memory. It is shocking and abhorrent.

    But if people cannot protect themselves from tyranny in the darkest of moments, the toll could be tens of millions. Perhaps more. The only protection the people have from tyrants is to be armed.

    It is both necessary and prudent. Yes the 30,000 per year needs to be reduced. I recommend actual policing to do that (not that that will occur), rather than stripping away the people’s only defense should a crisis befall.

    I know I am speaking to the choir, but it deserves retelling every so often.

     

    9th February 2015 at 11:00 pm

  5. Stucky says:

    I think every one who submits articles should first seek Llpoh’s approval. We shouldn’t offend him with fluff pieces. He might get angry.

     

    9th February 2015 at 11:00 pm

  6. llpoh says:

    Hey Stuck – fuck you, asshole.

     

    9th February 2015 at 11:02 pm

  7. Old Buck says:

    Looking forward every day this week. Thanks

     

    9th February 2015 at 11:08 pm

  8. Anonymous says:

    Southern California Edison is replacing their American IT staff with H1B visa ‘guest workers’ from India. The to-be-fired people are, of course, being required to train their replacements.

    I’d say these people are going to experience economic and social distress, at a minimum.

    Just what we need, more justifiably pissed-off people – with the skills and insider knowledge to take down the western power grid. I really do wonder just how long it will be before the masses decide that pulling executives/politicians/etc. out of their homes at 3AM and stringing them up is a good idea. All it needs is a spark.

     

    9th February 2015 at 11:08 pm

  9. llpoh says:

    Anon – requiring someone to train their replacement is one of the lowest things I have ever seen. It happens. Managers should refuse to be involved. It is reprehensible, and morally and ethically bankrupt. But it is not surprising. Very few folks actually have any strength of character.

    The employees cave in to it because their severance packages rely on it. Now would be a good time to unionize and go on strike. That is some fucked up bullshit.

     

    9th February 2015 at 11:13 pm

  10. Sensetti says:

    I read the fourth turning before coming to TBP. I believe every word written in the book and altered my life accordingly. Matter of fact I’ve read the book three times and plan on reading it again soon. Admin is correct, the only way you can disagree with the book is to never have read it.

    Every fourth turning is bigger than the last and loss of life exceeds the previous crisis. I predict a major war with the United States homeland being hit, loss of life will be horrendous.

    How many people do you know who could actually feed themselves when the grocery store shelves are empty? When I say the homeland gets hit, I am not necessarily saying it will be a nuke, or a foreign invasion, it could be a cyber attack that knocks out the banks. That’s all it will take for 300 million hungry people to start killing each other and destroy our on time delivery system. For example, if hungry mobs attack a commercial chicken houses and destroy them, how long would it be before that production would come back online? Answer is –> It may take years. Our whole system is built on law and order being in place, you rip that thin veil, even for a week or two, the damage will take years to rebuild.
    I choose to be ready, any plan is better than no plan. Playing the roll of a victim is something I will never do.

    Fine Work Admin. Thank You!

     

    9th February 2015 at 11:28 pm

  11. bb says:

    I saw where Alan Greenspan is predicting a political crisis in our near future.He knows his policies at the federal reserve will be one of the reasons we have a crisis.
    Good job admin,looking forward to reading the other parts.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:24 am

  12. starfcker says:

    Jim, great work, as usual. Llpoh, this is why I’m such a fan of the greek commies. I see 2 guys willing to stand up and say, no more. That could get contagious in europe real fast. Those parties are rising up real fast, right and left, doesn’t matter. Podemus, UKIP, national front, 5 star, they’re coming. They may not have guns over there, but they can force the issue politically much faster.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:39 am

  13. Gayle says:

    I can’t imagine how this turning is going to last ten more years before the climax. Despite the fact that generational theory holds, has the pervasive speedy technology running our world shortened the length of the turning itself? Aren’t we all collectively holding our breath hoping to make it through just the next week with the world we know remaining intact?

    I think the primary feature of the post-turning environment will be a vastly reduced population on the earth. And I’m not nearly as willing as S&H to speculate that the Spirit of America will reappear. I suspect that what little is left of it will be figuratively and literally tortured and killed before it can even get the Gadsen flags unfurled.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:40 am

  14. Stephanie Shepard says:

    “Those who wish for this Fourth Turning to accelerate and get to the climax sooner may want to rethink their desire. The Civil War Crisis was accelerated because all parties were intransigent and unwilling to compromise or pause.”

    Shedding a little light from the Millennial demographic, speak for Gen Xers, I can’t wait for the motha fucker to burn. Since I was a teenager I have felt like my generation’s motto should be “Hurry up and wait”. Tired of this shit. It is going to collapse anyway. The past 6 years has been mind numbing boredom for me. I get to be apart of the part-time economy attempting to get ahead in a time of inflation when most of my generation can’t afford their rent even with roommates. Good riddance to the status quo and I will spend the fourth turning bullshit my way out like Mark Twain.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:47 am

  15. starfcker says:

    I tend to think it won’t be quite so explosive. We could end up deflating into a much more normal existence, and your average working person will probably do fine. The FSA, that’s a whole nother story. I spent a lot of time online, reading census data, looking for survivable demographics. The cities are cesspools. The FSA will consume each other first. Get ready to work, and I don’t mean data entry. Get in shape. Learn to competently use a gun. Decide who and what are important to you.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:54 am

  16. starfcker says:

    Because it will happen in europe first, and be kind of strung out, we’ll get a fair amount of warning. We, as a country have a lot of resources that can turn on a dime and re-prioritize lots and lots of economic activity. We see it down here when hurricanes threaten. Bad time for the weak and government dependent. It’s coming though, however you visualize it.

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:04 am

  17. T4C says:

    Wow starfcker. Both those comments resonated with me. Totally agree on both counts.

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:09 am

  18. Sensetti says:

    Clammy, I feel your pain, it’s a bitch. I make good money, but I’am working 60 hours a week to do it. And the money doesn’t go very far. I don’t now how people with 10 or 15 dollar an hour jobs make it. It would be hell to know you had the gas pedal shoved to the floor and where going no where.

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:14 am

  19. Sensetti says:

    Were going no where

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:16 am

  20. Stephanie Shepard says:

    Sensetti- I think the government and the elite already consider the youth to be the enemy. All it takes is for our generational philosophy to not support debt and spending.

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:40 am

  21. the tumbleweed says:

    Just a few years ago I think we all expected another collapse, a coup, an attack. Something along those lines. While difficult and painful, we expected a spark that would finally galvanize the population, that would expose corruption and act as the impetus toward a reorganization of failing systems that is simply not possible under ordinary conditions. Perhaps then there would be a chance to move forward.

    As the years pass, it’s getting harder and harder to envision this happening. What we’re seeing instead is much worse. A turning that is a slow grind into tyranny and despair. Like the frog in the boiling pot, the controlled and calculated nature of the decline plays right into the reactionary nature of man. It is hard to wrap your head around just how quickly and how intensely the screws are being put to old guard in America, what used to be normal, basically decent people. I could write an encyclopedia on the forces that have been ramped up since the flash point in 2008. Economic stagnation, foreign invasion, mind-numbing technology, the elevation of authority to omnipotent overlords, the corruption of any and all institutions, and the relentless onslaught of propaganda, to name just a few. How do you fight a monster with this many heads?

    No one is willing to take a stand anymore. The nation whose legacy includes dumping tea into the harbour and firing on Fort Sumter now happily trains its foreign replacements, removes its shoes at airports and buys its worthless health insurance when told to do so. The subservient attitude has permeated the culture. A wild continent where a man was once entirely responsible for his own defense and fortune has been reduced to a bunch of tattlers, whiners, and thieves.

    I see calls for more contributions to the articles. I sometimes wonder if banging my head against a brick wall would accomplish more. Truth is only found on a few corners of the internet, a few websites and lo-fi radio networks and podcasts. Even most of the history based websites are run by institutional academics who spend most of their time highlighting the flaws of past heroic figures and acting as apologists for the socialist undercurrents of the past. Unfortunately I think we’ve reached peak penetration for the truth. Just about everyone who wants to know, knows by now. The vast majority have made their choice to remain willfully ignorant. They are going to played like a cheap fiddle over the coming years. Due to their sheer numbers it looks like the rest of us will be along for the ride.

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:30 am

  22. Administrator says:

    Winter is here and a storm is on the horizon.

    fourth-turning-6-3.jpg

     

    10th February 2015 at 6:24 am

  23. flash says:

    +100 admin.

    While Strauss and Howe may lay the ground prophecy on how the crisis will be created, this how-to manual ( a lot of common sense) l may help some here develop a defense plan and better prepare to survive a TEOTWAWKI event,if indeed that does transpire. .Also, I think Billy gave it three thumbs up.

    ” The Ultimate ‘A to Z’ Survival Book. A primer for the untrained and knowledge for the trained in survival.
    How to organize your community and neighbors into a Neighborhood Protection Plan by being prepared with Life Critical Necessities and defending yourselves by using military tactics and shooting techniques during a disaster or civil unrest.”
    http://www.afailureofcivility.com/.

    That said, I love to read of libertarian philosophy of non-aggression and contractual voluntarism as a replacement for aggressive police state action where might is always right, but I harbor no illusions.It ain’t going to happen because:

    1) MPAI ( most people are idiots) and thus demand their bread and circus at any price

    2) The Chosenites are not going to walk away from the throne , sans a bloody brawl and because of #I , there are not enough libertarian minded people to discharged # 2 from their power base of a mass of friggin’ morons.

    The best bet any of us of surviving a Fourth turning as predicted by S&H is tribe up , but good luck with that (see#1)

    He that lives upon hope will die fasting. ~ Benjamin Franklin

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:00 am

  24. hardscrabble farmer says:

    Last night, right before bed I was thinking about how long it would be before I’d see another new piece from Admin. I too wound up here because of the writing that Jim throws like pearls before swine every so often, but I also know that burnout happens and eentually everyone says everything they have to say. I’m glad you’re not done. These are profoundly important things to be writing about- not so much for the regulars who grok what’s going down, but for the ones who are just starting to get it.

    I was very close to my paternal grandmother and spent the better part of my life hanging on to her every word. She was part of the generation that remembered things in vivid detail and how most of those things she recalled were of a nation enduring long periods of suffering and privation. She was a young girl when the Spanish flu swept through, a teenager and young adult during the depression, and a young mother when she lost her only brother in North Africa to Rommel’s tanks. Most of the stories were about family, about what they did rather than what they had- or more specifically what they didn’t- and everything was centered around food. I don’t ever remember her telling me a story where there wasn’t a mention of someone’s deviled eggs or how happy she was to get a tangerine in her Christmas stocking, or having her uncle come home with a string of rabbits for them to stew. My grandparents lived a life of extreme modesty in a small home in a town where their family had lived since the Dutch first claimed it. Their dreams were humble in the extreme, of a raising honorable and healthy children- which they did- and of having enough to eat. The only regret my grandfather ever expressed to me was that he never got a chance to travel around America, so over the years when I was on the road I carried a small framed photograph of my grandparents that I would pose along the banks of the Mississippi, or the rim of the Grand Canyon, or at the edge of a field of sunflowers in Kansas and then photograph it for them to see later, taking them on tour by proxy. Their life was forged in a fourth turning and they came through it as two of the most stable, decent, dependable and positive human beings I have ever had the good fortune to meet, never mind be related to. Their lessons shaped my way of thinking even though I never realized it until they were gone.

    Our family has a motto-

    “Only The Flexible Survive”

    I believe that to be the truth no matter where we are in history.

    Thanks Jim, great piece, look forward to the rest.

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:31 am

  25. Stucky says:

    “Every fourth turning is bigger than the last and loss of life exceeds the previous crisis.”
    —– Sensetti

    Does it HAVE to be that way? Is it cast in stone? Are we forever doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past, no matter what?

    What if, for example, the next POTUS we elect understands The Fourth Turning, and takes action to avert it … or at least diminish the consequences?

    Disclaimer: I have not read the book.

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:33 am

  26. IndenturedServant says:

    Another great article from our hero. I’d like to add a more meaningful comment or two as llpoh suggests but I’m so burnt out on doom porn that I can see straight. The next step in my apprenticeship at work is beginning so I’m largely focused on that. I’ve mentioned before that my boss is the Jimi Hendrix or Stephen Hawking of his craft………literally the undisputed best in the world and it is a real privilege to be under his wing. For every one thing he teaches it seems like there are a hundred more to learn and I’ve got to get there before he retires.

    Check out the latest Mark Dice “Petition for Illiteracy” video. http://www.infowars.com/americans-sign-petition-to-support-obama-illiteracy-program/

    You know how Democans and Replublicrats are really best of friends behind closed doors? I starting to believe the same basic thing basically applies to world leaders and that behind closed doors they all get along like peas and carrots but they are all captured (many willingly) by our collective owners and dutifully play the roles they are given. It’s all fucked up and bullshit. It could all be fixed rather easily but too many sheople live under the illusion that our “leaders” actually matter. The whole shootin’ match is just too fuckin’ depressing to think about. FUCKING GREEDY COCKSUCKERS!

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:35 am

  27. IndenturedServant says:

    HSF said:
    ““Only The Flexible Survive””

    The FSA and other assorted sheople have the same motto but it applies to how many positions they can bend you into while they ass rape you.

    Yours probably means something different.

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:39 am

  28. Welshman says:

    Admin.,

    Thank you for the refresher, it brought out alot of good responses.

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:48 am

  29. Stucky says:

    ” …. speaking for Gen Xers, I can’t wait for the motha fucker to burn.” ———- Stephanie

    YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE HOPING FOR.

    Not shouting at you …. caps for emphasis only.

    People in America who are my age (60) have parents / grandparents who lived through the Great Depression. My European parents lived through several Holocausts; the Jewish one, the Russian one, the German one. You’re too young to have any idea of their actual suffering.

    Llpoh talks about his grandfather shoveling coal for TEN CENTS …. per DAY! How far do you think that thin dime went? What he didn’t say was how often he and his family went hungry … daily. I imagine having shoes without holes in them was a luxury. How many of his loved ones died before their time? Several, would be my guess.

    If you complain now (and rightfully so) about your job prospects, or lack thereof, or student debt, or or not having enough money to repair your car ……….. how do you think you will fare when the “motha fucker burns”? Bad as things are now, you have available ample social safety nets — whether or not you use them. When the motha fucker burns, those will be gone. Then what? Are YOU ready to shovel coal for a dime a day?

    Not picking on you. Hey, I say the same thing often enough … that I wish all this shit will just fucking end already. But, I’ll let you in on a little secret … I don’t REALLY mean it. I know how god fucking awful it will be. Not necessarily from first hand experience, as I have had a cushy life, overall. But, as mentioned, I have parents who went through that shit. I’ve been fortunate enough (or, unfortunate) to see 3rd world poverty first hand. It’s horribly horrendous. Yet, even that will look like a walk-in-the-park when the real shit-storm hits our shore.

    You may want to see the motha fucker burn down now. But, when it does burn, you’ll be longing for days gone by, days like today. I’m pretty sure about that.

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:58 am

  30. Anne says:

    My only comment is that I would like to know why the second thing I saw when I brought up this webpage is “20 Things All Girls Want to Try in Bed…”

     

    10th February 2015 at 8:53 am

  31. Captain America says:

    Best thing I have ever read from you Jim. And that, is no small feat. Reason, objectivity and reality are not quite in favor these days, but some of us come here, to dabble in the Black Arts.

     

    10th February 2015 at 9:10 am

  32. Olga says:

    Another great essay – thanks.

    I sometimes wonder about cycles inside of bigger cycles inside of even greater cycles and whether or not our rulers have been aware of them all along.

     

    10th February 2015 at 9:49 am

  33. Dutchman says:

    I think it has to be some physical event. Huge earthquake, volcano (bigger that Krakatoaj), meteor strike.

    I say this because folks seem so complacent, willing to be lied to and manipulated. When the cataclysmic event happens – lies from our government will no longer work to control the situation.

    The US has too many people. Cities like NY, Phil, Chicago, Miami, LA are all shit holes that really need to be cleaned out. These cities cannot exist without massive inputs of money. When money doesn’t matter – there will be chaos.

    Perhaps when people have to get their ‘ass in gear’ – cell phones, iCrap, endless entertainment, there will be a return to a more simple, sane, sustainable life.

     

    10th February 2015 at 10:01 am

  34. cz says:

    Sorry Anne,
    I put that ad there 🙂

     

    10th February 2015 at 10:36 am

  35. bluestem says:

    Another good writing, Jim, thanks for what you do , John

     

    10th February 2015 at 10:56 am

  36. Sensetti says:

    Hardscrabble Farmer says: Our family has a motto- “Only The Flexible Survive”

    I have little different motto- “mobility is the key to survival” which is flexibility.

    I see these preppers on TV that live in a residential neighborhood on the East Coast, they stock their basement wall to wall with food, they buy AR-15’s, teach mom and kids to pull the trigger and think they’ve done something, Dumbassery in motion right there. A roving gang of fathers, trying to feed hungry children, will simply surrounded the house and demand food. When the siege preppers yell “go away we are armed” the gang takes a couple gallons of gas and burns the house down. Unless the siege preppers AR’s can kill flames, the whole prepper family is dead within moments and the roving gang is digging through the ashes looking for scraps.

    From my research there are very few preppers who are actually prepared to survive no matter what happens. Normalcy bias eats their brains alive.

    As for me? Well…. find me if you can. You better have a damn good pair of hiking boots is all I have to say.
    7925cacddc12517980c89c4d5d079c18_zpse9ff4da6.jpg

     

    10th February 2015 at 11:30 am

  37. Baby Boomer Professor says:

    This time the cycle is different! For the last 80 years we have pumped enought CO2 to trigger runaway methane release in the Arctic. That means an exponential function. That means the amout of released methane is doubling at an alarming rate. Methane is ~100-300 times a more potent greehouse gas than CO2.

    Experts are saying it is too late to reverse this process which would end food production by 2030.

    Arctic Methane Emergency Group says it is mostly over…
    http://ameg.me/

    Dr. Rignot, NASA Anarctic reasearcher, says it is over…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANBHZfH4l6M

    The details for those want to dig deeper…
    pix.cs.olemiss.edu/climate.html

     

    10th February 2015 at 11:31 am

  38. Sensetti says:

    Baby boomer professor you fucking piece of shit. Go post your climate change bullshit somewhere else.

     

    10th February 2015 at 11:38 am

  39. Sensetti says:

    I would almost vote for mass extinction if the liberal “sacks of shit” Dimocrats would volunteer to go first.

     

    10th February 2015 at 11:41 am

  40. Administrator says:

    “The conflict between the East and West was designed to scare the people of the world into accepting a convergence of these two monopoly systems of authoritarian power. The end result was to be a new Imperial Order and a New World Empire run by an elite self-perpetuating oligarchies from the leading nations of the earth.”

    Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope, p. 860

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:18 pm

  41. Anne says:

    I meant that it seems wildly inappropriate to be confronted by this stuff before I even get to read the article I was seeking. Talk about bread and circuses!

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:29 pm

  42. dc.sunsets says:

    The world goes by itself. Human history is cyclical and patterned in a fractal, and “leaders” are chosen by the times, they don’t change much beyond the details.

    Humanity lives in the shadow of life-destroying technology and sooner or later this will be our undoing.

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:37 pm

  43. Baby Boomer Professor says:

    @Sensetti

    Rest in ignorance my friend…

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:37 pm

  44. flash says:

    Anne, the ads are geared toward your personal browsing habits. Spend a lot of time at the Cosmopolitan site do you?

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:49 pm

  45. flash says:

    @ Anne.Try a different browser, especially if your still using IE.

    FWIW, my first choice. http://www.palemoon.org/

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:52 pm

  46. Administrator says:

    “Gentlemen may cry, peace, peace — but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! — I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!”

    Patrick Henry

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:54 pm

  47. Stephanie Shepard says:

    “You may want to see the motha fucker burn down now. But, when it does burn, you’ll be longing for days gone by, days like today. I’m pretty sure about that.”

    Stucky, a correction is coming anyways. We all would have been better off going through a short depression 6 years ago. Now the situation is a lot worse and so will be the carnage. Every year it is postponed the worse off we will be.

    Seeing as your family is from Austria you should know this. What if the Treaty of Versailles was never signed? What if the German Revolution had continued after WW1? What if the reparations and the humiliation against Germany hadn’t occurred? What if the the hyperinflation had never happened? What if the Wiemar Republic hadn’t collapsed? And so on…

    The crisis is on the horizon but it won’t happen immediately. All wars and Revolutions are funded and nobody is funding anything these days.

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:56 pm

  48. Administrator says:

    World War II was funded with war bonds. US debt as a % of GDP reached its all-time high.

    The psychopaths running the world will borrow to kill.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:04 pm

  49. Stephanie Shepard says:

    Also, I should note- Who was carrying out the carnage in Germany (and throughout Europe) during WW2? It was the Nomad Generation giving the orders and it was the Hero Generation carrying out those orders. Think about that awhile…

     

    10th February 2015 at 12:58 pm

  50. dc.sunsets says:

    Stephanie raises an interesting point.

    How will the wars be paid for?

    I anticipate a Balkanization of every society and people will spoil for a fight in every direction.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:01 pm

  51. Dutchman says:

    @Baby boomer professor: Please, please, not more shit. This climate worry is an attempt by liberals to hijack the worlds population, and gaining control of our lives. Maybe the Metrosexual fuckers in Europe believe it, and they will go along with it.

    You liberals just don’t stop: 1970’s global cooling, 2000’s global warming, 2014 – falsified global warming data, now methane. FUCK YOU!

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:04 pm

  52. flash says:

    @Clams, I agree with Stucky , you better get down on your knees and pray, this “motha’ “don’t burn to the ground in your lifetime. You don’t know what you ask.

    If the wheel goes down., you’ll not like your new existence .You’ll either soon end up dead or become someones eases property to be disposed of as seen fit. Be careful what you wish for.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:07 pm

  53. Stephanie Shepard says:

    DC Sunset- For a war from a foreign aggressor to occur on U.S. soil it would have to be paid for by the aggressor. That ain’t cheap considering the U.S. is well protected by being bordered by to freaking oceans. Ever notice how Japan attacked us on our home soil in 1941 but never carried out another attack afterward? Japan would never have been capable of carrying out a full war on U.S. soil. It is expensive to go to war with us.

    A coming war in the U.S. would be on our soil funded by one of our own. During the French Reign of Terror it was the aristocracy funding the violence. They started by first paying to get rid of the royal family then they paid to get rid of each other. For there to be a revolution to occur in the U.S. it would be bought and paid for by the George Soros type. And I am pointing him out considering he funded Occupy Wall Street and Ferguson.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:08 pm

  54. AC says:

    Witness deagel.com projection US population in 2025: 69 million.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:09 pm

  55. Stephanie Shepard says:

    “World War II was funded with war bonds. US debt as a % of GDP reached its all-time high.”

    Ha ha, did you see how much propaganda was used to achieve that? The U.S. government already blew its proverbial wad concerning their wars of choice. Add to it there is no production right now and the common people do not have the money to invest in bonds. The only reason the U.S. isn’t in Iraq and Syria right now is because be can’t afford to be the bully on the playground anymore. Jordan is having no problem breaking up ISIS hold in the region. Also, I should point out- Anyone notice how young ISIS is- they are comprised of 20 somethings entering from Europe, from countries will high unemployment. Why isn’t anyone else noticing that ISIS is well funded, generally leaderless, and the freaking Millennial generation?

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:14 pm

  56. rb says:

    Meta comment – the s/n ratio on this discussion board is unusually high. Great posts and discussion, folks.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:17 pm

  57. Jason Emery says:

    I don’t see what good guns will do you. In case you hadn’t noticed, they have been perfecting their chemtrail spraying for a couple of decades. First they will spray a chemical or biological agent. Then they will say, ‘come in and get your vaccine, and don’t forget to bring in your guns for safekeeping.’

    A far better strategy is develop a large selection of moderate value tangible assets, that are somewhat geographically dispersed, knowing that some will probably be stolen or confiscated. At least you will likely have something.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:28 pm

  58. DRUD says:

    “Human nature does not change, therefore it is predictable.” What does change is the circumstances. This is why as Twain put it “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Each Fourth Turning in history has occurred for the same failures/qualities of human nature, but because of the circumstances (the fault lines) each Fourth Turning is unique. Well, the one we are currently experiencing is the MOST unique (I know this a grammatical inconsistency, but it is the only way I can think to express the thought). Put it this way: more has changed in the way we humans live our lives during the past eighty years than any other eighty-year period in history. In fact, I would say more has changed in the way we humans live our lives, than in ALL of history. Not only has technology changed the way we live our lives, it has also led to an exponential rise in human population. 160 years ago there were fewer than 1 billion people on earth, 80 years ago, fewer than 2 billion, today 7 billion. This is the exponential curve to end all exponential curves. That makes this Fourth Turning unlike any in the past. We have limitless possibilities and limitless unknowns.

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:49 pm

  59. Sensetti says:

    Jason how do yo use through that Sum-Bitch?

    ef16b5fffbf8d36b2bd114bf9c01d537_zps1a1aeada.jpg

     

    10th February 2015 at 1:49 pm

  60. AC says:

    http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:04 pm

  61. Baby Boomer Professor says:

    @Dutchman,

    It is your choice to learn or wallow in ignorance.

    Watch how the scientist Richard Muller struggles with climate change. You see, it is not about opinions, but following the scientific method: I Was Wrong on Global Warming – January 2015
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sme8WQ4Wb5w

    You seem to accept the fact that we have the possibility a unimaginable and horrific Fourth Turning events, yet cannot accept the shock that the world really is coming to an end? And that 7.1 billion lives will end? In the end it matters not what you believe (or what science tells us) since we will all end up in the same place.

    We have no control over nature. I thought readers would like a peek beyond the Fourth Turning horzion…

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:11 pm

  62. Stephanie Shepard says:

    Baby Boomer Professor of Climate Doom:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CXRaTnKDXA

    Nobody cares…

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:17 pm

  63. Stucky says:

    Baby Boomer Professor

    Blow me.

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:26 pm

  64. Sensetti says:

    Nobody cares because it’s a hoax!!

    http://youtu.be/aEaFzhoS67I

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:35 pm

  65. Sensetti says:

    Here’s the data on climate change it’s all BS

    http://youtu.be/0gDErDwXqhc

     

    10th February 2015 at 2:45 pm

  66. DRUD says:

    WTF – when did this turn into a Global Warming thread? and WHY? Global Warming is a trivial issue at best. Why do you think it is on the lips of every politician? Why do you think it is the meme of the day? Because it is entirely inconsequential. Imagine a bus with no brakes, accelerating down a hill towards a bottomless precipice. You all would be arguing whether you thought was going to rain or snow next week. It is silly, it is an utter waste of time and worst of all, it is divisive. Table the global warming/climate change bullshit and let us deal with the issues of the day. You know the FOURTH FUCKING TURNING. Social upheaval, economic collapse, all accelerating towards WAR in an age of nuclear weapons? Seriously???? Global Warming?????

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:03 pm

  67. Aquapura says:

    “You may want to see the motha fucker burn down now. But, when it does burn, you’ll be longing for days gone by, days like today. I’m pretty sure about that.”

    When Obama was selected in 2008 I told my friends that by the end of his term you’ll be wishing we were back in the good times Bush Jr. years. Not that I was any fan of Bush, and quite vocal about it too, it was just all too evident to me that tough times were coming regardless of president. Am I better off today than in 2008? Depends on how you define “better off” but largely no, aside from 7 more years of life experience.

    I believe the Millenials that want a rapid reset falsely believe that will user them into an era where they are the de-facto replacement for the spot currently held by the boomers. They are the entitled generation and they want their six figure middle management job, annual vacations to Hawaii, a new BMW every 2 years and a 4000 sq. ft. McMansion. Unfortunately all that stuff probably vanishes into dust in the 4th turning. Well, Hawaii might disappear under lava flow, but what is normal today sure wont be tomorrow. I’m not sure I buy the Kunstler-esque reverting to 19th century life, but it will be regression of some sort for most of us.

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:13 pm

  68. Sensetti says:

    DRUD says: WTF – when did this turn into a Global Warming thread?

    When those Damn Libtards showed up spouting nonsensical bullshit!

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:21 pm

  69. starfcker says:

    You can win any climate change argument very easily. Give me a solution that doesn’t involve taxing me. There is none. Taxing air (carbon dioxide) was supposed to be the funding mechanism for globalization. Printing money was the backup. Bush in 2000, and the 2007-08 collapse screwed that up. They had to print first. Still no taxes on air. WTF. Still unable to turn water into a commodity. WTF. and those fucking european elections. WTF

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:44 pm

  70. Tator says:

    I, like meany here are weary of the waiting and not knowing how bad it will get. My biggest fear is an interruption of the food supply to the cites. They will go feral in days and then the bad guys will spread out in packs. If you have read One Second After (I think many here have), you know the scenario.

    It will not be pretty.

    As a side note I would recommend the Foxfire books (especially the first five) free PDFs on the web. They chronicle all aspects of living off the land by interviewing “old geezers” in Appalachia. They cover everything from dressing a hog to building a log cabin and all thing in between.

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:45 pm

  71. starfcker says:

    Don’t think the PTB don’t know fear. Look at the bundy ranch. They chose to walk, afraid to wake the sleeping giant. The two greek guys enjoy one polonium lunch, problem solved. But you wake up and piss off the already restless giant. This is fascinating stuff. What can you do? When they tell you to stuff the jews in the boxcar, say no. Deal with the fallout. Do the right thing everytime. The cops guarding golman sachs in 2008 knew who just lost a billion dollars out of their pension fund. A lot of these situations are on a knife edge, and the PTB know it.

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:56 pm

  72. BUCKHED says:

    Flash…that explains the Big Hooters and Guns ads I’ve been seeing .

     

    10th February 2015 at 3:58 pm

  73. Dutchman says:

    @Baby Boomer Prof: “You seem to accept the fact that we have the possibility a unimaginable and horrific Fourth Turning events, yet cannot accept the shock that the world really is coming to an end? And that 7.1 billion lives will end?”

    Talk about the scientific method…. what kinda nut believes in the ‘end of everything’ (well the nuts preaching the bible on street corners, or Jim Jones followers)

    I didn’t say the fucking world was going to end – I said there could be a significant natural event – I didn’t imply everyone would die.

     

    10th February 2015 at 4:08 pm

  74. IndenturedServant says:

    Jason Emery said:
    “Then they will say, ‘come in and get your vaccine, and don’t forget to bring in your guns for safekeeping.”

    We’ll bring our guns alright!

     

    10th February 2015 at 4:29 pm

  75. Bea Lever says:

    Starfcker

    RE: Your 3:44 post

    Give the time , just give them time. I agree where you are coming from.

     

    10th February 2015 at 4:34 pm

  76. Jason Emery says:

    @indenturedServant. You saw the stuff that Snowden published. And that was the stuff they left out on the desk for anyone to lift. Meanwhile, they have thousands of guys with unlimited budgets dreaming up high tech ways of herding us into concentration camps. Are you going to shoot down a chemtrail spraying plane at 40,000 feet with your shotgun, lol?

    We’ve got a 4th turning in process, and only the clever 1% are going to survive.

     

    10th February 2015 at 5:01 pm

  77. Montefrio says:

    For my money, the two great “cyclic” historians were Spengler and Robert Prechter. Both understood the fundamentals, with respect to timing neither could predict anything worth a shit . I’m afraid I feel the same is true for Strauss & Howe (Disclaimer: I have not read the entire book, but thanks to Mr. Q believe I get the gist of it). I’m a Heraclitus guy: “ἐὰν μὴ ἔλπηται ἀνέλπιστον, οὐκ ἐξευρήσει”, which is to say “He who does not expect the unexpected will not find it out.” Ain’t no predicting tomorrow, regardless of what you know today.

    That said, I read Prechter in 1995 and was convinced he understood things financial/economic just as Ross Perot did in ’92. I acted accordingly, preserved capital, set myself up pretty well, thanks. Happily, I didn’t care about making more money, because if I’d followed Prechter’s advice, well…

    CYA, people: grams and gramps taught me that one and Fibonacci and fractals played no part in it. Neither did apocalyptic thinking, and they lived through the Depression in comfort by being prudent. yeah, sure, they were lucky, but to a great extent they MADE their luck and I hope I’m doing the same.

     

    10th February 2015 at 5:51 pm

  78. IndenturedServant says:

    Jason, I know you you were being half facetious but if required to get vaccinated and turn in guns at the same time, I’ll be “vaccinating” a few of them before they “vaccinate” me. I won’t be going going quietly. Resistance may be futile but I’ll die free.

    If it weren’t for the second amendment and massive gun ownership in this country, TPTB would have already rounded us up. The absolutely massive firearms buying spree after Sandy Hook and continuing ammo shortages tells me that not all of the sheople are as asleep as they appear to be.

    Starfker mentioned what happened at bundy ranch and I tend to agree. I figured we would have begun to see those in attendance being randomly rounded up or disappeared by now but so far I’ve heard nothing like that. If the govt gets too uppity this country will look like a recently disturbed fire ant nest in about 24 hours.

    The things that still give me hope are few and far between but they are very encouraging. I agree that being clever will help you survive and that hotheads will be be a problem but there is only so much shit a good many people will be willing to take.

     

    10th February 2015 at 6:21 pm

  79. IndenturedServant says:

    Jason said:
    “A far better strategy is develop a large selection of moderate value tangible assets, that are somewhat geographically dispersed, knowing that some will probably be stolen or confiscated. At least you will likely have something.”

    Done. Done and done. Way ahead of ya by several years. I figure this whole process will be about hedging your bets in numerous ways.

     

    10th February 2015 at 6:29 pm

  80. Westcoaster says:

    @Admin: Another excellent post, sir. You constantly amaze me at your ability to express yourself.
    @Baby Prof: I must apologize for some of the more rabid regulars here on TBP who absolutely positively must brand everything their cognitive dissonance can’t accept as being the fault of “those fucking liberals”. They haven’t yet figured out there is no branch in the political tree in the U.S., it’s one party aiming straight up our collective asses.
    I was the subject of their ire a few days back when I dared mention the CO2 levels being off the chart; they won’t believe that either. The down-votes were numerous (and painful, ouch!)
    Anyway I think your post deserves merit because if global warming is as advanced as SOME SCIENTISTS believe, and can’t be reversed or at least mitigated, then a fourth turning will be the last turning…at least for Mammals on Earth.

     

    10th February 2015 at 7:45 pm

  81. Overthecliff says:

    The peasants will not go after the bankers wit pitchforks and torches. They will go after each other. Black white yellow brown will divide up the country. As always the guys with the most guns will run the show. Then the slimy bankers will come from under the rocks again . Just like the Middle Ages.

    When SHTF the 4 th Turning will turn into Civil War II. It will be truly horrible.

     

    10th February 2015 at 10:29 pm

  82. Robert says:

    Praemonitus praemunitus. Thank you.

     

    11th February 2015 at 5:26 am

  83. Milo Mervic says:

    I’ve read The Fourth Turning and accept its premises. However, I find it hard to believe that World War I wasn’t a crisis. The authors stretch things a bit to shoehorn their thesis into 20-year cycles.

     

    11th February 2015 at 10:11 am

  84. Steve Victor says:

    To Westcoaster:

    Last time I looked at the CO2 level, it was 400 parts per million. The average before 1800 AD was app. 275. The idea that a difference of 125 ppm represents impending doom is absurd, although I will admit that it might be a good idea to think about slowing down the increase–without impeding human progress.

     

    11th February 2015 at 10:20 am

  85. Westcoaster says:

    @Steve: As I look at the charts, CO2 levels haven’t been this high since about 400,000 years back, and that was due to volcanic eruption. The reason CO2 is so important is with higher levels we have the greenhouse effect, which traps heat thus creating the “warming” effect, which then melts ice (higher sea levels) and melts tundra (which allows trapped methane gas to escape).
    If we can’t figure out a way to continue with “Human progress” without fucking up the planet, the point of “Human progress” will transcend to “Human survival” and we’ll go the way of the dinosaurs.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere#mediaviewer/File:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png

     

    11th February 2015 at 2:25 pm

  86. Jose Mack says:

    MY PERSONAL WAR ON DRUGS
    by Joseph McBrennan

    Taipan Daily
    April 7, 2011

    Today I’ll ask you to join me in my long-standing feud with Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE).

    My fight started innocently enough when my daughter, attending a private Catholic elementary school, came home and announced that my wife and I were “drug addicts.”

    The drug she was referring to was beer. She had learned from the DARE officer that alcohol was considered a drug, and anyone that consumed more than two beers an evening was addicted. Being a three-pint man, it was clear I was guilty as charged.

    My 11-year-old went on to explain that the DARE instructor, along with everyone in class, was aghast to find out that not only did I make my own beer, but I had taught each of my five children exactly how to do it. (Get the rope!)

    (Did I mention that the DARE officer was a pregnant, unmarried policewoman? No, of course I didn’t. That would be considered judgmental. Ignore that I mentioned it. )

    This was the role model the city had decided would be best suited to teach these young, heads-filled-with-putty fifth graders the difference between right and wrong.

    Not wanting to appear rash before calling the school, I thought I had better do some research. It wasn’t hard. Google provided more than 63 million hits. The research has shown, time and time again, that DARE is an ineffective government program (sorry, that’s redundant). Yet it is currently being taught to 36 million children annually, and is now in 54 countries other than the United States.

    Even the United States General Accounting Office said the program had “no statistically significant long-term effect on preventing youth illicit drug use.”

    It is always nice to have the accountants in your corner, but when even a government agency that literally has mastered the craft of wasteful spending turn its nose up at this program, you’ve really accomplished something. My best source comes from none other than the U.S. Department of Education.

    The U.S. DOE refuses to allow any federal education funds to be spent on the DARE program because the program is completely ineffective in curbing alcohol or drug abuse.

    The single reason advocates site for the success of DARE is that participants say they like it. In other words, if it feels good it must be successful. The proof they point to is that teachers (who get the 17 hours of DARE instruction off), students (who are not graded on any of the work) and parents (who have no contact with any of it) say they enjoyed the program.

    Hmmm. Sounds a lot like recess. Who wouldn’t like an extra paid hour of fun?

    Defenders will point out that the theories on which DARE is based were developed by world renowned psychologists Bill Coulson, Carl Rodgers and Abraham Maslow.

    And, to their credit, Maslow and Rogers admitted that their theories were wrong. Dr. Coulson simply said that the program “is rooted in trash psychology.”

    So why can we not drive a stake through the heart of this program? Ronald Reagan said it best when he said, “The closest thing to immortality is a government program.” (That quote was borrowed from Senator James F. Byrnes, 1933).

    DARE has taken on a life of its own. It is estimated to suck out nearly $750 million of taxpayer dollars. This is without calculating the local taxes that are thrown at this feel-good program, which pushes it over the billion-dollar mark.

    If we all refuse to allow our children to attend DARE, the program will come to an immediate end. It’s a very simple step of telling the government “no.”

     

    11th February 2015 at 3:19 pm

  87. Homer says:

    There is nothing new in this post that hasn’t already been said. Educated people are all aware of this.
    However, It need to be said. I need to hear a name 3 times before I remember it. I call it the 3 times rule. I have to hear it 3 times before it sinks in. I won’t go into it, but it has to do with changing peoples beliefs. There is a difference between hearing and reading, and understanding. So, say it, again and again, and bring all to understanding.

    Periods of Crisis is not a rhythmic occurrence that is inherent in nature, but a highly subjective view of events. It speaks more of human consciousness and the way the mind organizes things, than a cosmic cycle.

    God (Cosmic) consciousness is expansive and the human mind pick and chooses bits and pieces and puts them together and calls it reality. The Bible talks of cycles, the Shmita, etc. It’s the way we look at things. Therein lays the relevance. Because that is the way we see things, It has predictive value.

    If our minds were a typewriter, we would see the universe in ABC’s. We could predict that humans would always see reality as the alphabet. That would have predictive value. But…Our minds are not a typewriter, but evolving consciousness. As our awareness expands, old patterns (cycles) fade away.

    This is why we say, “History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.” Man’s consciousness is changing. Crisis is a catalyst for that change.

    Changing our belief system is like a drunk going into detox.

     

    11th February 2015 at 4:47 pm

  88. IndenturedServant says:

    Baby Boomer Professor smells like RE.

     

    11th February 2015 at 5:44 pm

  89. Homer says:

    llpoh—Keep hanging around. Where else can you get the meat and potatoes of dialogue. TBP is a family.
    The family is the basis of everything We need your comments, too, or else how are we going to learn. No man is sufficient unto himself. Community counts!

    starfcker—There will be a point in time when Americans ” will be killing each other over a cup of gasoline”, the angels taking to Howard Storm. (Heavens Message To America) It will be explosive and it won’t happen in Europe first. There will be turmoil in Europe as is happening now, but the collapse will start here and come like a thief in the night.

    Stucky—Your comment to Steph. was right on. Nobody is going to exit this unscathed. Some will be luckier than others, tho. Preparation may have a lot to do with that. So, prepare physically, mentally and spiritually

    Steph. S—Prolonged war is capital extensive, however, nuclear war, cyber war and economic war is cheap.. This is how the 3rd world war is currently being fought, economically. Which suits me fine because there’s no capital destruction. It’s capital destruction that sends you back to the dark ages. It’s the fourth world war where there will not be any winners.

     

    11th February 2015 at 6:16 pm

  90. Esther Cook says:

    In the great depression some worked hard for pennies a day. Allowing for 100x inflation, that comes to $10 a day, but the most relevant thing today is the minimum wage makes this survival illegal. Many other “liberal” “laws” also make honest work hard to find or create or do. When I was young, children’s lemonade stands were the usual, standard American childhood, and America was truthfully the greatest country in the history of the world. This year a teenager was arrested for offering to shovel snow for his neighbors.


    As to why this thread was taken over so quickly by climate change, it is because most of our current “recession” (worldwide depression) was caused by efforts to crush production of fossil fuels–which are the basis of much of the economy. The people on this site are mostly hard-working and they want the rewards thereof. Many have done what the professor has not and actually looked at worldwide temperature records. They have falsified those “models” by any reasonable standard.

    For that matter Professor–what do you think the average temperature of the Earth should be, ideally? You might look up the phrase “climate optimum” to help you decide.

    Then there is the matter of the Skeptics versus the scientists. There was famous “97% of scientists” agree” statement cooked up by a master’s degree student who sent out a questionnaire to over 3000 scientists, containing a very mild statement about climate change. As a skeptic, I would have answered no, but seriously considered yes as a reasonable answer. Then the student excluded anyone not making his income (grant money) from climate hysteria, which left him with about 62 respondents and 97%.

    Any good scientist is a skeptic on just about everything. The leading climate skeptics are real, working scientists. The alarmists, on the other hand, harp on the IPCC. IPCC stands for InterGOVERNMENTal Panel on Climate Change. Government = politicians and politicians always lie. Algore was vice President and ran for President.

    Algore was heavily invested in carbon trading schemes and stood to make billions if enough people had believed his scare stories. Most American scientists make their money and their beloved grant money from the NSF, which is adamant that they want dangerous warming. The AGW hope seems to be getting more tax money out of the public thru a carbon tax. But the people are tapped out and haven’t any more to give. Only restoring economic freedom can raise GDP and thus taxes.

    As to atmospheric carbon dioxide, that is the famous Keeling curve. It is one of the most reliable data sources. There are two components to that curve–the long-turn trend, which is upward and accelerating upward, and an annual variation with CO2 dropping in the Northern Spring and Summer, when plant growth pulls it out of the air; and rising in the winter, when plants (and animals) die. Only, NASA now has an Orbiting Carbon Observatory and that shows a strikingly different pattern. Oct 1-Nov 11, 2014 is the Northern Fall, Southern Spring; and it shows vividly where the carbon dioxide is really coming from–Agriculture and dams in the Southern hemisphere; and China. And Greenland–don’t ask me to explain that one.

    Primitive agriculture burns the fields first to make way for crops. Dams drown the living organisms below the dam, releasing carbon dioxide and methane. As to methane, CH4, that is quickly oxidized in our 20% oxygen atmosphere to carbon dioxide and water. The Keeling graph is not caused by fossil fuels, but by the killing of life.

    It came as quite a shock to me to realize that climate change is real, caused by human activities and a serious threat to the biosphere and to human civilization. He said good farming sequesters CO2 in the soil—and I ran that backwards, and realized that modern farming killing all soil life is where most of that upward sweep is really coming from. This came on top of reading “The Really Inconvenient Truths” by Iain Murray. One Environmental Catastrophe was the draining of Lake Aral in the former Soviet union. This changed LOCAL Summer temperatures from 90F to 140F.

    Bad Agriculture also causes droughts and floods by damaging the soil’s ability to hold water. Read “Cows Save the Planet” to understand that one.

    If you look at a satellite global image, you may see huge yellow deserts thru much of Earth’s temperate regions. I believe these are mostly caused by agriculture. We do know the Sahara was rich grassland just 5000 years ago.

    We have the technologies to heal all this. Carbon dioxide is the basis of terrestrial life and is plant food (also beneficial to animals and humans). Fossil fuels are also cheap and rich nations are the ones that can afford environmentalism.

    Also go see http://www.originalsonicbloom.com

    Restoration agriculture will feed the world more and much better food. This is FUN!

     

    11th February 2015 at 7:21 pm

  91. Esther Cook says:

    As to the problem of Most People Are Stupid, that one is fun to fix, too. Get a load of THIS:

    http://www.constitution.org/col/one_room_schoolhouse.htm

     

    11th February 2015 at 7:25 pm

  92. llpoh says:

    Esther – it is damn near impossible to find a teacher capable of competently teaching on subject to one grade these days, much less find teachers competent to teach many subjects at many different grade levels.

    Those days have long disappeared.

     

    11th February 2015 at 7:32 pm

  93. CountOfMeltedCrisco says:

    Every evening, I get down on my knees and thank my Deity Of Choice that I’m not your gall bladder.

     

    12th February 2015 at 8:09 pm

  94. William says:

    Everyone else have put their crazy ramblings on this, so I might as well also. We’ve got a hard day coming and the Bible told us long ago who would deliver the pain and gave us an idea what it would be like. It is not good, but we win because God has decided we will win. I like the outcome. I don’t like the stuff getting to the outcome. The Shiites Obama is arming right now deliver a major part of the pain. So much for the fourth turning. For the climate change… it is changing, but not for the reasons they say so. Enjoy your use of energy. It’s O.K. The Bible talks about Noah and the flood and that really happened and it changed a lot we have been recovering from. The arctic use to be semi-tropical and if given enough time will return to that state. I think Jesus will get here first though. There ain’t nothing you or we (and I am not going to help because it is insane) can do to stop producing carbon dioxide. Anytime you eat food and use it to run your activities you are just turning that food into carbon dioxide and dumping it into the atmosphere. There is a process in operation called the Carbon Cycle. The green plants capture carbon dioxide and turn it into food with the help of sunlight. The higher the level of carbon dioxide the faster the cycle works up to a little over 10% of atmosphere. Good news! our current level is a lot less than one percent. We can dump over ten times what we’ve dumped during all of history and still be alright. When we put extra Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere we just speed up the world’s food production. If I were worried I would be worried about the weather fronts coming from the arctic that are just over -110 degrees F. That is the temperature carbon dioxide sublimes at and who knows how many large bodies of dry ice from the comet that caused Noah’s flood are in the ice cap. Having a cloud of pure carbon dioxide come in could cause major extermination zones. Well…I hope I made your day…Have a good one. it may be your last.

     

    13th February 2015 at 12:47 am

  95. Anne says:

    @ Admin, Patrick Henry also said, in a private conversation with his neighbor (my ancestor, who recorded it in a letter) that the Constitution will prove a road of sand.

     

    27th February 2015 at 11:21 am

  96. Anne says:

    @ other Anne – if ads are based on browsing history, I must be a bald man with erectile dysfunction. 😉

     

    27th February 2015 at 11:28 am

  97. increasingly says:

    The phrases voluntary and involuntary are now so intertwined that most individuals have no idea what the phrase slave actually means, simply because they will select which type of labor they are employed (used) in as service to
    the syndicate.

     

    24th December 2015 at 9:07 pm

Leave a comment

You can add images to your comment by clicking here.