FOURTH TURNING – THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS NOT PASSED – PART ONE

“Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

  • Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
  • Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
  • Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
  • Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction” 

 The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997

When you read pertinent passages from Strauss & Howe’s prophetic assessment of history from a generational perspective, eighteen years after its publication and seven years into the Crisis they forecasted with uncanny accuracy, you find yourself shaking your head and appreciating their visionary generational appraisal of antiquity. Those who scorn The Fourth Turning either haven’t read it, are ignorant of the cyclical nature of history, blindly believe in never ending human progress, or their salary is dependent upon not acknowledging the truth. A year consists of four seasons – Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter. A long human life of 80 years consists of four phases – childhood, young adulthood, mid-life, and old age. Human beings tend to associate themselves with the cohort born within the roughly 20 year period that makes up one phase of life.

Members of a generation share an age location in history, tend to share some common beliefs and behaviors, including basic attitudes about risk taking, culture and values, civic engagement, family life, and tend to have a sense of common perceived membership in that generation. The generational attitudes, moods, leaders, and events that occur during recurring 80 year cycles drive the pathway of history. Strauss & Howe have been able to document the Turnings of Anglo-American history back to 1435. Like the seasons in a year, there have been cyclical turnings every twenty years or so for centuries. They can be described as High (Spring), Awakening (Summer), Unraveling (Fall), Crisis (Winter). Each turning is a reflection of generational interactions, moods, and attitudes. We are now seven years into a Crisis that will likely not climax until the late 2020’s.

Saeculum (climax year) Crisis (Full Era) Time from one Crisis climax to next Crisis climax
Revolutionary (1781) American Revolution (1773–1794)
Civil War (1863) Civil War (1860–1865) 82 years
Great Power (1944) Great Depression and World War II (1929-1946) 81 years
Millennial (2025?) Global Financial Crisis (2008–2029?) 81 years?

The beginning of the new year has seen the usual avalanche of 2015 forecasts from mainstream media pundits, Wall Street gurus, Ivy League economists, journalists and bloggers. Most are paid to produce forecasts which promote their employer’s agenda; convince readers to buy their investment products, newsletters, or service; propagandize the government storyline; or validate their Ivy League academic theories. Those in the employ of the Deep State always produce forecasts of economic growth, positive developments, and never ending progress. They’ve never seen a recession coming, the stock market declining, or war looming. None of these people saw the 2008 Financial Crisis coming. They all believe 2015 will be a great year. They are narrow minded linear thinkers who are willfully ignorant of history or purposefully peddling propaganda for a paycheck.

Making annual forecasts in the midst of a 20 year Fourth Turning Crisis is rather pointless. Predicting improvement or progress in the midst of a Crisis is nothing but a futile exercise in mental masturbation. Fourth Turnings, like a protracted, brutal, frigid, gloomy, stormy winter of discontent, may have an occasional let up in intensity, but will rapidly revert back to turbulence, danger, and volatility. When I wrote Fourth Turning Accelerating in June of last year, I made the case that core elements of this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – were combining to provide an impetus to the next dire phase of this relentless blizzard of pain, suffering, chaos and war.

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance.

Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning

Putting forecasting into perspective during Fourth Turnings is easy when you have a grasp on history. Imagine there were pundits pontificating on CNBC or CNN in 1936, the seventh year of the Great Depression Crisis or 1780, the seventh year of the American Revolution Crisis. Most historians refer to the Great Depression as the period from the Great Crash of 1929 until our entry into World War II in 1941. Annual forecasts of improvement would be meaningless to people living through this brutal period in our history.

If Jim Cramer was assessing the period from 1934 through 1936 on his daily radio show, he would have been gushing about GDP growth of 10.8%, 8.9% and 12.9%. He would have been effusive about the 300% surge in the Dow Jones Index from the 1933 low to the 1936 high. CNN would be doing special reports about the tremendous success of New Deal programs, as Federal spending and handouts accounted for the entire surge in GDP. But, in reality the average American continued to struggle to survive, as unemployment ranged between 17% and 22% during this time and only the rich owned stocks. Another 10 years of hardship, war, and death on a grand scale awaited them. Perspective and context are essential when attempting to assess periods in history. You get no context from the entertainers passing for journalists in today’s world.

The beginning of 1780 saw Washington and his troops surviving the harshest winter of the 18th Century in Morristown, NJ as the 5th year of war still left the outcome highly in doubt. CNN would have blamed the polar vortex for the temporary lull in patriot fortunes. Defeats in battles against the British in South Carolina and the uncovering of Benedict Arnold’s plot to surrender West Point to the British would have been spun as minor setbacks. Cornwallis’ surrender at Yorktown was almost two years away. The Articles of Confederation hadn’t yet been signed and the U.S. Constitution wouldn’t be signed until 1787. The Crisis wouldn’t end for another fourteen years, in 1794.

Fourth Turnings have their own rhythm and pace. The reactions to events and mood changes of generational cohorts interact to provide the dynamic that drives Fourth Turnings. The specific events are not foreseeable but human weaknesses, faults, flaws, failings, strengths, intellect, and emotions are consistent across the ages. Human nature does not change, therefore it is predictable. Those who wish for this Fourth Turning to accelerate and get to the climax sooner may want to rethink their desire. The Civil War Crisis was accelerated because all parties were intransigent and unwilling to compromise or pause. The result was 700,000 Americans killed in four years, representing 5% of the entire male population. This Fourth Turning could be accelerated with the push of a button and millions killed in an instant. I don’t think anyone wants that kind of climax. We are entering a banquet of consequences where our choices will make a difference.

“A Fourth Turning harnesses the seasons of life to bring about a renewal in the seasons of time. In so doing, it provides passage through the great discontinuities of history and closes the full circle of the saeculum. The Fourth Turning is when the Spirit of America reappears, rousing courage and fortitude from the people. History is seasonal, but its outcomes are not foreordained. Much will depend on how tall we stand in the trials to come.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The Shadow of Crisis

“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Just as you can’t turn the clock back to the glorious warm days of Summer or the delightfully pleasant cool days of Fall, the dark, foreboding, bitter days of Winter will bring forth raging blizzards, dangerous sub-zero temperatures, and vicious gale force winds. And there is no way to avoid, sidestep, or escape the trials and tribulations which will sweep away the existing social order and replace it with something better or possibly far worse. There are no guarantees this Crisis will resolve itself in a positive manner. The spark that catalyzed the Crisis mood in 2008 was the global financial implosion caused by Wall Street bankers committing the greatest control fraud in world history, corrupt captured politicians’ spineless failure to address the nation’s spending and debt problems, and the Federal Reserve creating a housing and stock bubble through their loose monetary policies and complete failure to regulate the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks.

The inability of the linear thinking ruling class to acknowledge the seriousness of our current circumstances and the implications of the era of depression and violence the country is about to experience can be witnessed on a daily basis by listening to mainstream media talking heads or politicians of all stripes who bloviate about economic improvement and progress just ahead. Could there be a better example of myopia, delusion and willful ignorance than the theme and opening line of Obama’s State of the Union speech:

“THE SHADOW OF CRISIS HAS PASSED”

Do Obama and his advisors actually believe this Crisis is over? Or is he purposely misleading the American people about the seriousness of our circumstances because he has been instructed to do so by the men who really pull the levers of this country – Wall Street bankers, shadowy billionaires, and the military industrial complex. If the Crisis has passed, why has the 30 year bond yield fallen to an all-time low? Why does the Fed maintain an emergency stance by continuing to keep interest rates at 0% if the economy is really growing at over 4%, unemployment has really fallen from 10% to 5.7%, corporate profits are at all-time highs, and the stock market has risen by 200% to record highs?

In Part Two of this article I’ll prove the shadow of crisis has not passed, and the core elements of Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder – get worse by the hour.

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Stephanie Shepard

“World War II was funded with war bonds. US debt as a % of GDP reached its all-time high.”

Ha ha, did you see how much propaganda was used to achieve that? The U.S. government already blew its proverbial wad concerning their wars of choice. Add to it there is no production right now and the common people do not have the money to invest in bonds. The only reason the U.S. isn’t in Iraq and Syria right now is because be can’t afford to be the bully on the playground anymore. Jordan is having no problem breaking up ISIS hold in the region. Also, I should point out- Anyone notice how young ISIS is- they are comprised of 20 somethings entering from Europe, from countries will high unemployment. Why isn’t anyone else noticing that ISIS is well funded, generally leaderless, and the freaking Millennial generation?

rb
rb

Meta comment – the s/n ratio on this discussion board is unusually high. Great posts and discussion, folks.

Jason Emery
Jason Emery

I don’t see what good guns will do you. In case you hadn’t noticed, they have been perfecting their chemtrail spraying for a couple of decades. First they will spray a chemical or biological agent. Then they will say, ‘come in and get your vaccine, and don’t forget to bring in your guns for safekeeping.’

A far better strategy is develop a large selection of moderate value tangible assets, that are somewhat geographically dispersed, knowing that some will probably be stolen or confiscated. At least you will likely have something.

DRUD
DRUD

“Human nature does not change, therefore it is predictable.” What does change is the circumstances. This is why as Twain put it “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Each Fourth Turning in history has occurred for the same failures/qualities of human nature, but because of the circumstances (the fault lines) each Fourth Turning is unique. Well, the one we are currently experiencing is the MOST unique (I know this a grammatical inconsistency, but it is the only way I can think to express the thought). Put it this way: more has changed in the way we humans live our lives during the past eighty years than any other eighty-year period in history. In fact, I would say more has changed in the way we humans live our lives, than in ALL of history. Not only has technology changed the way we live our lives, it has also led to an exponential rise in human population. 160 years ago there were fewer than 1 billion people on earth, 80 years ago, fewer than 2 billion, today 7 billion. This is the exponential curve to end all exponential curves. That makes this Fourth Turning unlike any in the past. We have limitless possibilities and limitless unknowns.

Sensetti

Jason how do yo use through that Sum-Bitch?

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AC
AC
Baby Boomer Professor

@Dutchman,

It is your choice to learn or wallow in ignorance.

Watch how the scientist Richard Muller struggles with climate change. You see, it is not about opinions, but following the scientific method: I Was Wrong on Global Warming – January 2015

You seem to accept the fact that we have the possibility a unimaginable and horrific Fourth Turning events, yet cannot accept the shock that the world really is coming to an end? And that 7.1 billion lives will end? In the end it matters not what you believe (or what science tells us) since we will all end up in the same place.

We have no control over nature. I thought readers would like a peek beyond the Fourth Turning horzion…

Stephanie Shepard

Baby Boomer Professor of Climate Doom:

Nobody cares…

Stucky

Baby Boomer Professor

Blow me.

Sensetti

Nobody cares because it’s a hoax!!

Sensetti

Here’s the data on climate change it’s all BS

http://youtu.be/0gDErDwXqhc

DRUD
DRUD

WTF – when did this turn into a Global Warming thread? and WHY? Global Warming is a trivial issue at best. Why do you think it is on the lips of every politician? Why do you think it is the meme of the day? Because it is entirely inconsequential. Imagine a bus with no brakes, accelerating down a hill towards a bottomless precipice. You all would be arguing whether you thought was going to rain or snow next week. It is silly, it is an utter waste of time and worst of all, it is divisive. Table the global warming/climate change bullshit and let us deal with the issues of the day. You know the FOURTH FUCKING TURNING. Social upheaval, economic collapse, all accelerating towards WAR in an age of nuclear weapons? Seriously???? Global Warming?????

Aquapura
Aquapura

“You may want to see the motha fucker burn down now. But, when it does burn, you’ll be longing for days gone by, days like today. I’m pretty sure about that.”

When Obama was selected in 2008 I told my friends that by the end of his term you’ll be wishing we were back in the good times Bush Jr. years. Not that I was any fan of Bush, and quite vocal about it too, it was just all too evident to me that tough times were coming regardless of president. Am I better off today than in 2008? Depends on how you define “better off” but largely no, aside from 7 more years of life experience.

I believe the Millenials that want a rapid reset falsely believe that will user them into an era where they are the de-facto replacement for the spot currently held by the boomers. They are the entitled generation and they want their six figure middle management job, annual vacations to Hawaii, a new BMW every 2 years and a 4000 sq. ft. McMansion. Unfortunately all that stuff probably vanishes into dust in the 4th turning. Well, Hawaii might disappear under lava flow, but what is normal today sure wont be tomorrow. I’m not sure I buy the Kunstler-esque reverting to 19th century life, but it will be regression of some sort for most of us.

Sensetti

DRUD says: WTF – when did this turn into a Global Warming thread?

When those Damn Libtards showed up spouting nonsensical bullshit!

starfcker
starfcker

You can win any climate change argument very easily. Give me a solution that doesn’t involve taxing me. There is none. Taxing air (carbon dioxide) was supposed to be the funding mechanism for globalization. Printing money was the backup. Bush in 2000, and the 2007-08 collapse screwed that up. They had to print first. Still no taxes on air. WTF. Still unable to turn water into a commodity. WTF. and those fucking european elections. WTF

Tator
Tator

I, like meany here are weary of the waiting and not knowing how bad it will get. My biggest fear is an interruption of the food supply to the cites. They will go feral in days and then the bad guys will spread out in packs. If you have read One Second After (I think many here have), you know the scenario.

It will not be pretty.

As a side note I would recommend the Foxfire books (especially the first five) free PDFs on the web. They chronicle all aspects of living off the land by interviewing “old geezers” in Appalachia. They cover everything from dressing a hog to building a log cabin and all thing in between.

starfcker
starfcker

Don’t think the PTB don’t know fear. Look at the bundy ranch. They chose to walk, afraid to wake the sleeping giant. The two greek guys enjoy one polonium lunch, problem solved. But you wake up and piss off the already restless giant. This is fascinating stuff. What can you do? When they tell you to stuff the jews in the boxcar, say no. Deal with the fallout. Do the right thing everytime. The cops guarding golman sachs in 2008 knew who just lost a billion dollars out of their pension fund. A lot of these situations are on a knife edge, and the PTB know it.

BUCKHED
BUCKHED

Flash…that explains the Big Hooters and Guns ads I’ve been seeing .

Dutchman
Dutchman

@Baby Boomer Prof: “You seem to accept the fact that we have the possibility a unimaginable and horrific Fourth Turning events, yet cannot accept the shock that the world really is coming to an end? And that 7.1 billion lives will end?”

Talk about the scientific method…. what kinda nut believes in the ‘end of everything’ (well the nuts preaching the bible on street corners, or Jim Jones followers)

I didn’t say the fucking world was going to end – I said there could be a significant natural event – I didn’t imply everyone would die.

IndenturedServant

Jason Emery said:
“Then they will say, ‘come in and get your vaccine, and don’t forget to bring in your guns for safekeeping.”

We’ll bring our guns alright!

Bea Lever
Bea Lever

Starfcker

RE: Your 3:44 post

Give the time , just give them time. I agree where you are coming from.

Jason Emery
Jason Emery

@indenturedServant. You saw the stuff that Snowden published. And that was the stuff they left out on the desk for anyone to lift. Meanwhile, they have thousands of guys with unlimited budgets dreaming up high tech ways of herding us into concentration camps. Are you going to shoot down a chemtrail spraying plane at 40,000 feet with your shotgun, lol?

We’ve got a 4th turning in process, and only the clever 1% are going to survive.

Montefrio

For my money, the two great “cyclic” historians were Spengler and Robert Prechter. Both understood the fundamentals, with respect to timing neither could predict anything worth a shit . I’m afraid I feel the same is true for Strauss & Howe (Disclaimer: I have not read the entire book, but thanks to Mr. Q believe I get the gist of it). I’m a Heraclitus guy: “ἐὰν μὴ ἔλπηται ἀνέλπιστον, οὐκ ἐξευρήσει”, which is to say “He who does not expect the unexpected will not find it out.” Ain’t no predicting tomorrow, regardless of what you know today.

That said, I read Prechter in 1995 and was convinced he understood things financial/economic just as Ross Perot did in ’92. I acted accordingly, preserved capital, set myself up pretty well, thanks. Happily, I didn’t care about making more money, because if I’d followed Prechter’s advice, well…

CYA, people: grams and gramps taught me that one and Fibonacci and fractals played no part in it. Neither did apocalyptic thinking, and they lived through the Depression in comfort by being prudent. yeah, sure, they were lucky, but to a great extent they MADE their luck and I hope I’m doing the same.

IndenturedServant

Jason, I know you you were being half facetious but if required to get vaccinated and turn in guns at the same time, I’ll be “vaccinating” a few of them before they “vaccinate” me. I won’t be going going quietly. Resistance may be futile but I’ll die free.

If it weren’t for the second amendment and massive gun ownership in this country, TPTB would have already rounded us up. The absolutely massive firearms buying spree after Sandy Hook and continuing ammo shortages tells me that not all of the sheople are as asleep as they appear to be.

Starfker mentioned what happened at bundy ranch and I tend to agree. I figured we would have begun to see those in attendance being randomly rounded up or disappeared by now but so far I’ve heard nothing like that. If the govt gets too uppity this country will look like a recently disturbed fire ant nest in about 24 hours.

The things that still give me hope are few and far between but they are very encouraging. I agree that being clever will help you survive and that hotheads will be be a problem but there is only so much shit a good many people will be willing to take.

IndenturedServant

Jason said:
“A far better strategy is develop a large selection of moderate value tangible assets, that are somewhat geographically dispersed, knowing that some will probably be stolen or confiscated. At least you will likely have something.”

Done. Done and done. Way ahead of ya by several years. I figure this whole process will be about hedging your bets in numerous ways.

Westcoaster
Westcoaster

@Admin: Another excellent post, sir. You constantly amaze me at your ability to express yourself.
@Baby Prof: I must apologize for some of the more rabid regulars here on TBP who absolutely positively must brand everything their cognitive dissonance can’t accept as being the fault of “those fucking liberals”. They haven’t yet figured out there is no branch in the political tree in the U.S., it’s one party aiming straight up our collective asses.
I was the subject of their ire a few days back when I dared mention the CO2 levels being off the chart; they won’t believe that either. The down-votes were numerous (and painful, ouch!)
Anyway I think your post deserves merit because if global warming is as advanced as SOME SCIENTISTS believe, and can’t be reversed or at least mitigated, then a fourth turning will be the last turning…at least for Mammals on Earth.

Overthecliff
Overthecliff

The peasants will not go after the bankers wit pitchforks and torches. They will go after each other. Black white yellow brown will divide up the country. As always the guys with the most guns will run the show. Then the slimy bankers will come from under the rocks again . Just like the Middle Ages.

When SHTF the 4 th Turning will turn into Civil War II. It will be truly horrible.

Robert
Robert

Praemonitus praemunitus. Thank you.

Milo Mervic
Milo Mervic

I’ve read The Fourth Turning and accept its premises. However, I find it hard to believe that World War I wasn’t a crisis. The authors stretch things a bit to shoehorn their thesis into 20-year cycles.

Steve Victor
Steve Victor

To Westcoaster:

Last time I looked at the CO2 level, it was 400 parts per million. The average before 1800 AD was app. 275. The idea that a difference of 125 ppm represents impending doom is absurd, although I will admit that it might be a good idea to think about slowing down the increase–without impeding human progress.

Westcoaster
Westcoaster

@Steve: As I look at the charts, CO2 levels haven’t been this high since about 400,000 years back, and that was due to volcanic eruption. The reason CO2 is so important is with higher levels we have the greenhouse effect, which traps heat thus creating the “warming” effect, which then melts ice (higher sea levels) and melts tundra (which allows trapped methane gas to escape).
If we can’t figure out a way to continue with “Human progress” without fucking up the planet, the point of “Human progress” will transcend to “Human survival” and we’ll go the way of the dinosaurs.

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Jose Mack
Jose Mack

MY PERSONAL WAR ON DRUGS
by Joseph McBrennan

Taipan Daily
April 7, 2011

Today I’ll ask you to join me in my long-standing feud with Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE).

My fight started innocently enough when my daughter, attending a private Catholic elementary school, came home and announced that my wife and I were “drug addicts.”

The drug she was referring to was beer. She had learned from the DARE officer that alcohol was considered a drug, and anyone that consumed more than two beers an evening was addicted. Being a three-pint man, it was clear I was guilty as charged.

My 11-year-old went on to explain that the DARE instructor, along with everyone in class, was aghast to find out that not only did I make my own beer, but I had taught each of my five children exactly how to do it. (Get the rope!)

(Did I mention that the DARE officer was a pregnant, unmarried policewoman? No, of course I didn’t. That would be considered judgmental. Ignore that I mentioned it. )

This was the role model the city had decided would be best suited to teach these young, heads-filled-with-putty fifth graders the difference between right and wrong.

Not wanting to appear rash before calling the school, I thought I had better do some research. It wasn’t hard. Google provided more than 63 million hits. The research has shown, time and time again, that DARE is an ineffective government program (sorry, that’s redundant). Yet it is currently being taught to 36 million children annually, and is now in 54 countries other than the United States.

Even the United States General Accounting Office said the program had “no statistically significant long-term effect on preventing youth illicit drug use.”

It is always nice to have the accountants in your corner, but when even a government agency that literally has mastered the craft of wasteful spending turn its nose up at this program, you’ve really accomplished something. My best source comes from none other than the U.S. Department of Education.

The U.S. DOE refuses to allow any federal education funds to be spent on the DARE program because the program is completely ineffective in curbing alcohol or drug abuse.

The single reason advocates site for the success of DARE is that participants say they like it. In other words, if it feels good it must be successful. The proof they point to is that teachers (who get the 17 hours of DARE instruction off), students (who are not graded on any of the work) and parents (who have no contact with any of it) say they enjoyed the program.

Hmmm. Sounds a lot like recess. Who wouldn’t like an extra paid hour of fun?

Defenders will point out that the theories on which DARE is based were developed by world renowned psychologists Bill Coulson, Carl Rodgers and Abraham Maslow.

And, to their credit, Maslow and Rogers admitted that their theories were wrong. Dr. Coulson simply said that the program “is rooted in trash psychology.”

So why can we not drive a stake through the heart of this program? Ronald Reagan said it best when he said, “The closest thing to immortality is a government program.” (That quote was borrowed from Senator James F. Byrnes, 1933).

DARE has taken on a life of its own. It is estimated to suck out nearly $750 million of taxpayer dollars. This is without calculating the local taxes that are thrown at this feel-good program, which pushes it over the billion-dollar mark.

If we all refuse to allow our children to attend DARE, the program will come to an immediate end. It’s a very simple step of telling the government “no.”

Homer
Homer

There is nothing new in this post that hasn’t already been said. Educated people are all aware of this.
However, It need to be said. I need to hear a name 3 times before I remember it. I call it the 3 times rule. I have to hear it 3 times before it sinks in. I won’t go into it, but it has to do with changing peoples beliefs. There is a difference between hearing and reading, and understanding. So, say it, again and again, and bring all to understanding.

Periods of Crisis is not a rhythmic occurrence that is inherent in nature, but a highly subjective view of events. It speaks more of human consciousness and the way the mind organizes things, than a cosmic cycle.

God (Cosmic) consciousness is expansive and the human mind pick and chooses bits and pieces and puts them together and calls it reality. The Bible talks of cycles, the Shmita, etc. It’s the way we look at things. Therein lays the relevance. Because that is the way we see things, It has predictive value.

If our minds were a typewriter, we would see the universe in ABC’s. We could predict that humans would always see reality as the alphabet. That would have predictive value. But…Our minds are not a typewriter, but evolving consciousness. As our awareness expands, old patterns (cycles) fade away.

This is why we say, “History may not repeat, but it sure does rhyme.” Man’s consciousness is changing. Crisis is a catalyst for that change.

Changing our belief system is like a drunk going into detox.

IndenturedServant

Baby Boomer Professor smells like RE.

Homer
Homer

llpoh—Keep hanging around. Where else can you get the meat and potatoes of dialogue. TBP is a family.
The family is the basis of everything We need your comments, too, or else how are we going to learn. No man is sufficient unto himself. Community counts!

starfcker—There will be a point in time when Americans ” will be killing each other over a cup of gasoline”, the angels taking to Howard Storm. (Heavens Message To America) It will be explosive and it won’t happen in Europe first. There will be turmoil in Europe as is happening now, but the collapse will start here and come like a thief in the night.

Stucky—Your comment to Steph. was right on. Nobody is going to exit this unscathed. Some will be luckier than others, tho. Preparation may have a lot to do with that. So, prepare physically, mentally and spiritually

Steph. S—Prolonged war is capital extensive, however, nuclear war, cyber war and economic war is cheap.. This is how the 3rd world war is currently being fought, economically. Which suits me fine because there’s no capital destruction. It’s capital destruction that sends you back to the dark ages. It’s the fourth world war where there will not be any winners.

Esther Cook
Esther Cook

In the great depression some worked hard for pennies a day. Allowing for 100x inflation, that comes to $10 a day, but the most relevant thing today is the minimum wage makes this survival illegal. Many other “liberal” “laws” also make honest work hard to find or create or do. When I was young, children’s lemonade stands were the usual, standard American childhood, and America was truthfully the greatest country in the history of the world. This year a teenager was arrested for offering to shovel snow for his neighbors.


As to why this thread was taken over so quickly by climate change, it is because most of our current “recession” (worldwide depression) was caused by efforts to crush production of fossil fuels–which are the basis of much of the economy. The people on this site are mostly hard-working and they want the rewards thereof. Many have done what the professor has not and actually looked at worldwide temperature records. They have falsified those “models” by any reasonable standard.

For that matter Professor–what do you think the average temperature of the Earth should be, ideally? You might look up the phrase “climate optimum” to help you decide.

Then there is the matter of the Skeptics versus the scientists. There was famous “97% of scientists” agree” statement cooked up by a master’s degree student who sent out a questionnaire to over 3000 scientists, containing a very mild statement about climate change. As a skeptic, I would have answered no, but seriously considered yes as a reasonable answer. Then the student excluded anyone not making his income (grant money) from climate hysteria, which left him with about 62 respondents and 97%.

Any good scientist is a skeptic on just about everything. The leading climate skeptics are real, working scientists. The alarmists, on the other hand, harp on the IPCC. IPCC stands for InterGOVERNMENTal Panel on Climate Change. Government = politicians and politicians always lie. Algore was vice President and ran for President.

Algore was heavily invested in carbon trading schemes and stood to make billions if enough people had believed his scare stories. Most American scientists make their money and their beloved grant money from the NSF, which is adamant that they want dangerous warming. The AGW hope seems to be getting more tax money out of the public thru a carbon tax. But the people are tapped out and haven’t any more to give. Only restoring economic freedom can raise GDP and thus taxes.

As to atmospheric carbon dioxide, that is the famous Keeling curve. It is one of the most reliable data sources. There are two components to that curve–the long-turn trend, which is upward and accelerating upward, and an annual variation with CO2 dropping in the Northern Spring and Summer, when plant growth pulls it out of the air; and rising in the winter, when plants (and animals) die. Only, NASA now has an Orbiting Carbon Observatory and that shows a strikingly different pattern. Oct 1-Nov 11, 2014 is the Northern Fall, Southern Spring; and it shows vividly where the carbon dioxide is really coming from–Agriculture and dams in the Southern hemisphere; and China. And Greenland–don’t ask me to explain that one.

Primitive agriculture burns the fields first to make way for crops. Dams drown the living organisms below the dam, releasing carbon dioxide and methane. As to methane, CH4, that is quickly oxidized in our 20% oxygen atmosphere to carbon dioxide and water. The Keeling graph is not caused by fossil fuels, but by the killing of life.

It came as quite a shock to me to realize that climate change is real, caused by human activities and a serious threat to the biosphere and to human civilization. He said good farming sequesters CO2 in the soil—and I ran that backwards, and realized that modern farming killing all soil life is where most of that upward sweep is really coming from. This came on top of reading “The Really Inconvenient Truths” by Iain Murray. One Environmental Catastrophe was the draining of Lake Aral in the former Soviet union. This changed LOCAL Summer temperatures from 90F to 140F.

Bad Agriculture also causes droughts and floods by damaging the soil’s ability to hold water. Read “Cows Save the Planet” to understand that one.

If you look at a satellite global image, you may see huge yellow deserts thru much of Earth’s temperate regions. I believe these are mostly caused by agriculture. We do know the Sahara was rich grassland just 5000 years ago.

We have the technologies to heal all this. Carbon dioxide is the basis of terrestrial life and is plant food (also beneficial to animals and humans). Fossil fuels are also cheap and rich nations are the ones that can afford environmentalism.

Also go see http://www.originalsonicbloom.com

Restoration agriculture will feed the world more and much better food. This is FUN!

Esther Cook
Esther Cook

As to the problem of Most People Are Stupid, that one is fun to fix, too. Get a load of THIS:

http://www.constitution.org/col/one_room_schoolhouse.htm

llpoh
llpoh

Esther – it is damn near impossible to find a teacher capable of competently teaching on subject to one grade these days, much less find teachers competent to teach many subjects at many different grade levels.

Those days have long disappeared.

CountOfMeltedCrisco
CountOfMeltedCrisco

Every evening, I get down on my knees and thank my Deity Of Choice that I’m not your gall bladder.

William
William

Everyone else have put their crazy ramblings on this, so I might as well also. We’ve got a hard day coming and the Bible told us long ago who would deliver the pain and gave us an idea what it would be like. It is not good, but we win because God has decided we will win. I like the outcome. I don’t like the stuff getting to the outcome. The Shiites Obama is arming right now deliver a major part of the pain. So much for the fourth turning. For the climate change… it is changing, but not for the reasons they say so. Enjoy your use of energy. It’s O.K. The Bible talks about Noah and the flood and that really happened and it changed a lot we have been recovering from. The arctic use to be semi-tropical and if given enough time will return to that state. I think Jesus will get here first though. There ain’t nothing you or we (and I am not going to help because it is insane) can do to stop producing carbon dioxide. Anytime you eat food and use it to run your activities you are just turning that food into carbon dioxide and dumping it into the atmosphere. There is a process in operation called the Carbon Cycle. The green plants capture carbon dioxide and turn it into food with the help of sunlight. The higher the level of carbon dioxide the faster the cycle works up to a little over 10% of atmosphere. Good news! our current level is a lot less than one percent. We can dump over ten times what we’ve dumped during all of history and still be alright. When we put extra Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere we just speed up the world’s food production. If I were worried I would be worried about the weather fronts coming from the arctic that are just over -110 degrees F. That is the temperature carbon dioxide sublimes at and who knows how many large bodies of dry ice from the comet that caused Noah’s flood are in the ice cap. Having a cloud of pure carbon dioxide come in could cause major extermination zones. Well…I hope I made your day…Have a good one. it may be your last.

Anne
Anne

@ Admin, Patrick Henry also said, in a private conversation with his neighbor (my ancestor, who recorded it in a letter) that the Constitution will prove a road of sand.

Anne
Anne

@ other Anne – if ads are based on browsing history, I must be a bald man with erectile dysfunction. 😉

increasingly

The phrases voluntary and involuntary are now so intertwined that most individuals have no idea what the phrase slave actually means, simply because they will select which type of labor they are employed (used) in as service to
the syndicate.

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