WHAT NEXT?

1 comment

Posted on 1st May 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

,

Bernanke and his Wall Street banker puppeteers have broken the 8 year downtrend with their latest foreclosure fraud scheme. Now what? Do home prices soar back to previous heights, even though real people can’t afford them today? Does gold fall for the next 10 or 15 years even though Bernanke prints $3 billion of new fiat currency per day and the Federal government adds $3.2 billion to the national debt per day? Inquiring minds want to know.

 

For some perspective on the single-family home market, today’s chart presents the median single-family home price divided by the price of one ounce of gold. This results in the home / gold ratio or the cost of the median single-family home in ounces of gold. For example, it currently takes a relatively low 116 ounces of gold to buy the median single-family home. This is dramatically less than the 601 ounces it took back in 2001. When priced in gold, the median single-family home is down 74% from its 2001 peak. Since making new 32 year lows last year, home prices (priced in that other global currency — gold) have worked their way higher. In fact, the median single-family home priced in gold has just broken above its eight-year, downward sloping trend channel.

Chart of the Day

NEXT BULLSHIT MSM HEADLINE OF THE DAY

12 comments

Posted on 30th April 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, ,

Here is the raging propaganda headline on Marketwatch at the moment. The housing market is back baby. All is well. Home prices are surging. We’re all getting rich again. 

 

Annual gains in U.S. home prices strongest in 6 years

 

One little problemo. The chart reveals that 8 out of 20 cities saw price declines in February, with one market flat. January saw 8 out of 20 cities with price declines, and 3 flat. Does that sound like a raging housing recovery? What you have is an artificial home price increase in the old hot markets like Phoenix, Vegas and Miami driven by Wall Street buying up foreclosures and restricting the supply of available homes. Supply and demand works.

If home price gains are the highest since 2006, why are mortgage purchase applications 55% below the levels of 2006? Inquiring minds want to know. Don’t real people buying real houses need real mortgages?

If home prices are rising at the fastest rate since 2006, why are existing home sales 30% below the levels of 2006? Inquiring minds want to know.

Home prices are still 30% below the 2007 peak. The home price increases generated over the last year or so is due to the collusion of the Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, the US Treasury, the NAR, and the MSM. It is a vital part of their plan that you believe in the housing recovery and act accordingly. Do your part. Believe.

SURE SIGN OF HOUSING RECOVERY – FORECLOSURE INVENTORY SKYROCKETS

4 comments

Posted on 28th March 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, , ,

Foreclosure inventory always goes up during a housing recovery. Right?

No problemo. Just have Bennie provide more free money to the Wall Street Too Big To Control bankers so they can buy up all the new foreclosures at high prices. Then they can pretend to be landlords and rent out 25% of them, while waiting to flip them at higher prices in a year or two. It’s a can’t miss plan. With rents plunging due to oversupply, that will surely lead more people to want to buy houses. Right?

So it goes.

U.S. foreclosure inventory up 9%, says RealtyTrac

By Nathalie Tadena

U.S. foreclosure inventory jumped 9% in the first quarter from a year earlier, led by an increase in pre-foreclosure properties, according to market researcher RealtyTrac.

The total number of U.S. properties actively involved in the foreclosure precess and bank-owned properties totaled about 1.5 million properties in the first quarter, according to RealtyTrac’s first-ever U.S. foreclosure inventory analysis. However, the tally is 32% below the peak of 2.2 million in December 2010.

“Delinquent loans that fell into a deep sleep after the robo-signing controversy in late 2010 are gradually coming out of hibernation following the finalization of the national mortgage settlement in April 2012,” said Daren Blomquist, RealtyTrac vice president. “The settlement provided some closure regarding accepted foreclosure processing practices, and as a result lenders have been reviving more of these delinquent loans and pushing them into foreclosure over the past 12 months, particularly in states where a lengthy court process has resulted in a bigger backlog of non-performing loans still in snooze mode.”

The report also found that the increase in foreclosure inventory was led by a 59% jump in pre-foreclosure inventory, while inventory of homes scheduled for foreclosure auction slipped 25% and inventory of bank-owned homes decreased 3%.

Among properties actively involved in the foreclosure process, excluding bank-owned properties, 35% were properties identified as vacant or where the homeowner had moved.

RealtyTrac also said the inventory of listed foreclosures slipped 43% in the latest quarter from a year earlier, while inventory of unlisted foreclosures rose 12%.

Government-backed entities Fannie Mae (FNMA), Freddie Mac (FMCC) and the Federal Housing Administration/U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development represented the largest portion of foreclosure inventory, with a combined 12% of the national total. It was followed by Bank of America Corp. (BAC) with 11% and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) with 10%.

 

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PLUNGES, NEW HOME SALES FALL, HOME PRICES FALL IN 10 OF 20 BIGGEST MARKETS – STOCKS SOAR ON THE NEWS

9 comments

Posted on 26th March 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, , , , , , , ,

I find it fascinating that there are absolutely no stories about consumer confidence plunging or new home sale falling on the Marketwatch front page. They did have a huge banner headline about home prices at a six year high, without revealing that home prices had fallen in 10 of the 20 markets and only risen in 9 markets. The national price increase over the last year has been driven by a 21% increase in Phoenix and a 15% increase in Las Vegas. This has been generated by Wall Street using Bennie Bucks to buy up the inventory of foreclosures and create the appearance of a recovery.

Here is a link to the horrific consumer confidence index. The last time I checked, 71% of the economy was dependent upon consumer spending.

http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

Does this info sound promising?

  • The Present Situation Index decreased to 57.9 from 61.4. The Expectations Index declined to 60.9 from 72.4 last month.
  •  Those saying business conditions are “good” decreased to 16.0 percent from 17.6 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” increased to 29.3 percent from 28.2 percent.
  • Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 9.4 percent from 10.1 percent.
  • Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 14.4 percent from 18.0 percent, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen increased to 18.3 percent from 16.6 percent.
  • Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 12.3 percent from 16.1 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs increased to 26.6 percent from 22.1 percent.

Here is the link to the New Home sales.

http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

I thought we were in the midst of a housing recovery. Do new home sales fall in the midst of a strong housing recovery when mortage rates are at all-time lows? Does this chart reveal a housing recovery?

New home sales are ONLY 70% below the all-time high and about 40% below the 50 year average. Yeah, that sounds like a recovery. Pertinent facts from the report:

  • The seaonally adjusted new home sales FELL 5%.
  • There were a total of 33,000 new homes sold in the whole freaking country, with only 12,000 of them actually completed. The rest are under construction.
  • Median home prices are 3% LOWER than they were 5 months ago.

The economic data reported today was dreadful and confirms that we are in a recession. How does the stock market respond? It soars by 100 points as the oligarchs celebrate their latest success in Cyprus. The truth is there if you choose to see it.

 

March Consumer Confidence Plunges As New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Miss

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/26/2013 10:11 -0400

Houston we may have a problem: with the DJIA trumpetedely hitting new all time highs day after day in March, one would expect that its traditional second derivative – US Consumer Confidence, would be at all time highs as well, or close thereby. One would be wrong, because according to the Conference Board, March consumer confidence plunged to 59.7 from 69.6, and well below expectations of a 67.5 print. Both components of the index dipped, with both the present situation and expectations indices sliding from 61.4 and 72.4, to 57.9 and 60.9, respectively. And just to make sure the S&P ramps to all time highs on ongoing miserable economic, corporate profit and, of course, sovereign insolvency news, we got both New Home Sales, dropping from 431K to 411K, missing expectations of 420K, and the Richmond Fed also missing expectations of a 6 print, dropping from last month’s 6 to 3. All in all, if this latest round of ugly and rapidly getting worse economic data doesn’t send the S&P to new all time highs, nothing will. Well, perhaps another European country going broke may do the trick…

Consumer Confidence biggest miss since June 2010…

 

and Richmond Fed missed expectations…

 

and New Home Sales missed too (its biggest miss in 4 months)…

HOW THE WALL STREET SHYSTERS ARE CREATING AN ARTIFICIAL HOUSING FRENZY

6 comments

Posted on 23rd March 2013 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

, , , , ,

Doctor Housing Bubble with details about our “strong” “normal” housing recovery. He is based in California at ground zero of this ridiculousness. The Wall Street/K Street master plan is in full display with 35% of home purchases by investors and another 25% through 3% down FHA guaranteed loans. Another 30% are distressed sales. So, you have about 10% of home sales in Southern California that are between a normal seller and a normal buyer. It’s fascinating that home sales are supposedly booming in California, but the homeownership percentage continues to decline. This will surely end well.

The Frenzy is back:  Low inventory creates bidding wars and mania for California real estate.  Low inventory shifting buyer psychology.  Video of mania in action.

The housing mania is definitely back in California.  Low interest rates are one thing but those that are out in the market to buy are finding it tougher and tougher to contend with all cash buyers and people that are simply willing to go with large above sticker price offers.  The low inventory environment has shifted how people now perceive the market.  One of the craziest stats I saw was that last month, over 35 percent of Southern California purchases came from all cash buyers.  This is an all-time record.  FHA insured loans made up another 25 percent of all purchases.  Given the higher mortgage insurance premium costs, there is little reason to go this way instead of a conventional mortgage.  Yet you have two groups; those that are investors with all cash and those that can barely get a down payment together.  Yet low inventory is pushing prices up to record levels.  The psychology has definitely shifted and you can see this from various examples.

 

San Diego mania

A reader sent over this video:

bubbleinfo

 

Offer without looking at property in person.  10 offers.  People flowing in like a herd.  Welcome to the California housing market.  The dynamics are different this time but low inventory has shifted buying behavior.  A survey conducted by Redfin also highlights this change:

redfin survey low inventory

The biggest jumps occurred in:

-People ready to pay more (this is a big jump in simply one quarter)

-People looking at new areas

-People looking for unlisted homes

Taking a break?  No way!  Time to go shopping for a home and join the herd above.  You do not want to miss out in this current mania.  The current momentum is clearly unsustainable and anyone looking to buy in a somewhat desirable neighborhood today without a big down payment or solid amounts of cash is simply looking for a dragged out headache.  Are you willing to make an offer without even looking at the property?  Are you willing to go way over asking price?  These are things you may need to do if you want to purchase in this current market in California.

What is interesting is that even with all this renewed buying, the homeownership rate really isn’t going up:

HomeownershipRate-Annual2-1024x560

Why?  First, you have a giant amount of investor buying.  Some may not even be in the state.  So in places like the Inland Empire you have many would-be owner occupied homes converting into rentals pushing the rental rate up.  As we discussed in a previous article, the rate isn’t going up because you simply have owner-occupied going to owner-occupied (i.e., Beverly Hills with no population growth).  The first time buyer is probably the most impacted here.

Take a look at inventory levels in Santa Monica and Pasadena: santa monica and pasadena

Pasadena inventory is down nearly 60 percent in the last two years.  The median list price has gone up from $559,000 to $738,000 which reflects what sellers are expecting to get.  The trend seems to be playing out nationwide:

nationwide inventory

Anyone out there braving this current market and looking to purchase?  The attitude seems to be that it is only going to get more expensive and inventory is going to get even more constrained.

Did You Enjoy The Post? Subscribe to Dr. Housing Bubble’s

« Older Entries